How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

Ekonomisti stotinama godina istražuju ljudsko ponašanje:

Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:

how we make decisions,

kako donosimo odluke,

how we act individually and in groups,

kako postupamo kao pojedinci i u grupama,

how we exchange value.

kako razmenjujemo vrednosti.

They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,

Oni izučavaju institucije koje olakšavaju našu trgovinu,

like legal systems,

kao što su pravni sistemi,

corporations,

korporacije,

marketplaces.

tržišta.

But there is a new, technological institution

Međutim, postoji nova tehnološka institucija

koja će iz temelja promeniti način na koji razmenjujemo vrednosti,

that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,

a zove se blokčejn.

and it's called the blockchain.

To je poprilično hrabra izjava,

Now, that's a pretty bold statement,

but if you take nothing else away from this talk,

ali ako ništa drugo ne zapamtite iz ovog govora,

I actually want you to remember

želela bih da zapamtite da,

that while blockchain technology is relatively new,

iako je tehnologija blokčejna relativno nova,

it's also a continuation of a very human story,

ona takođe predstavlja nastavak jedne vrlo ljudske priče,

a priča je sledeća.

and the story is this.

Kao ljudska bića, pronalazimo načine

As humans, we find ways

da umanjimo nesigurnost između sebe

to lower uncertainty about one another

so that we can exchange value.

tako da možemo da razmenjujemo vrednosti.

Jedna od prvih osoba koja je zaista istražila ideju

Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea

of institutions as a tool in economics

o institucijama kao ekonomskim sredstvima

to lower our uncertainties about one another

koje bi smanjile nesigurnost koja vlada između nas

and be able to do trade

da bismo mogli da trgujemo

was the Nobel economist Douglass North.

bio je ekonomista i nobelovac Daglas Nort.

He passed away at the end of 2015,

On je preminuo krajem 2015. godine,

but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."

ali je razvio nešto što se zove „nova institucionalna ekonomija“.

A ono što je podrazumevao pod institucijama

And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules

bila su samo formalna pravila kao što je ustav,

like a constitution,

and informal constraints, like bribery.

i neformalna ograničenja, poput davanja mita.

These institutions are really the grease

Ove institucije su zapravo mazivo

that allow our economic wheels to function,

koje omogućava funkcionisanje točkovima naše ekonomije,

a možemo videti kako se to odigrava kroz tok ljudske istorije.

and we can see this play out over the course of human history.

Ako se prisetimo vremena kada smo bili ekonomije lovaca-skupljača,

If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,

we really just traded within our village structure.

zapravo smo trgovali samo unutar strukture svog sela.

We had some informal constraints in place,

Imali smo nekolicinu neformalnih ograničenja,

ali smo celokupnu trgovinu sprovodili pomoću nasilja

but we enforced all of our trade with violence

or social repercussions.

ili društvenih posledica.

As our societies grew more complex

Kako su naše zajednice postajale sve složenije,

and our trade routes grew more distant,

a trgovački putevi udaljeniji,

we built up more formal institutions,

izgradili smo još formalnih institucija

institutions like banks for currency,

poput banaka zbog valuta,

governments, corporations.

vlada, korporacija.

These institutions helped us manage our trade

Ove institucije su nam pomogle da upravljamo trgovinom

as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,

dok su nesigurnost i složenost rasli,

and our personal control was much lower.

a naša lična kontrola opadala.

Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.

Vremenom smo uz pomoć interneta iste ove institucije postavili onlajn.

We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,

Izgradili smo tržišta na internetu poput Amazona, Ibeja i Alibabe,

koje su samo brže institucije koje deluju kao posrednici

just faster institutions that act as middlemen

to facilitate human economic activity.

u olakšavanju ekonomske aktivnosti ljudi.

As Douglass North saw it,

Kako je Daglas Nort to video,

institucije su sredstva koja smanjuju nesigurnost

institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty

so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.

da bismo mogli da se povežemo i razmenjujemo razne vrednosti u društvu.

And I believe we are now entering

Verujem da zalazimo

a further and radical evolution

u još dalju i radikalniju evoluciju

načina na koji stupamo u interakciju i trgujemo,

of how we interact and trade,

because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty

jer po prvi put možemo umanjiti nesigurnost

not just with political and economic institutions,

ne samo pomoću političkih i ekonomskih institucija

like our banks, our corporations, our governments,

poput banaka, korporacija ili vlada,

but we can do it with technology alone.

već isključivo tehnologijom.

So what is the blockchain?

Dakle, šta je to blokčejn?

Blockchain technology is a decentralized database

Tehnologija blokčejna je decentralizovana baza podataka

u kojoj se čuva registar dobara i transakcija

that stores a registry of assets and transactions

across a peer-to-peer network.

preko P2P mreže.

U suštini predstavlja javni registar

It's basically a public registry

of who owns what and who transacts what.

toga ko šta poseduje i ko vrši transakciju čega.

The transactions are secured through cryptography,

Transakcije su osigurane putem kriptografije

and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data

i vremenom se ta istorija transakcija zaključava u blokove podataka

that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.

koji su onda kriptografski povezani i obezbeđeni.

This creates an immutable, unforgeable record

Ovo stvara postojani zapis svih transakcija na ovoj mreži

of all of the transactions across this network.

koji se ne može krivotvoriti.

This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.

Zapis se kopira na svaki kompjuter koji koristi mrežu.

It's not an app.

Ovo nije aplikacija.

Nije kompanija.

It's not a company.

Mislim da bi ga najbliže opisalo nešto poput Vikipedije.

I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.

We can see everything on Wikipedia.

Na Vikipediji se sve može videti.

It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.

To je složen pregled koji se stalno menja i ažurira.

We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,

Na Vikipediji možemo i pratiti te promene tokom vremena,

and we can create our own wikis,

a možemo praviti i sopstvene stranice,

because at their core, they're just a data infrastructure.

jer su one u suštini samo infrastruktura podataka.

On Wikipedia, it's an open platform that stores words and images

Vikipedija je otvorena platforma koja skladišti reči i slike,

kao i promene tih podataka u vremenu.

and the changes to that data over time.

On the blockchain,

Što se tiče blokčejna,

možete ga zamisliti kao otvorenu infrastrukturu

you can think of it as an open infrastructure

that stores many kinds of assets.

koja skladišti mnogo različitih vrsta dobara.

It stores the history of custodianship,

Skladišti istoriju nadležnosti,

ownership and location

vlasništva i lokacija

for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,

dobara poput digitalne valute bitkoin,

other digital assets

drugih digitalnih dobara

kao što je pravo vlasništva na protokol interneta.

like a title of ownership of IP.

It could be a certificate, a contract,

To može biti uverenje, ugovor,

real world objects,

stvarni objekti,

even personal identifiable information.

pa čak i lične informacije koje se mogu identifikovati.

Naravno, postoje i drugi tehnički detalji vezani za blokčejn,

There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,

but at its core, that's how it works.

ali u suštini, tako on funkcioniše.

To je javni registar koji skladišti transakcije u mreži

It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network

and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.

i koji se kopira, tako da je vrlo bezbedan i teško ga je nepropisno koristiti.

To me navodi na moju poentu

Which brings me to my point

of how blockchains lower uncertainty

o tome kako blokčejn smanjuje nesigurnost

and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems

i kako zbog toga obećava da će promeniti naš ekonomski sistem

in radical ways.

na drastične načine.

So uncertainty is kind of a big term

Dakle, nesigurnost je donekle velik pojam

in economics,

u ekonomiji,

but I want to go through three forms of it

ali ja želim da prođem kroz njena tri oblika

that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,

sa kojima se susrećemo u skoro svim svakodnevnim transakcijama,

a gde blokčejnovi mogu da imaju ulogu.

where blockchains can play a role.

We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with,

Susrećemo se sa nesigurnostima kada ne znamo s kim imamo posla,

not having visibility into a transaction

kada nemamo uvid u transakciju

and not having recourse if things go wrong.

i kada nemamo pravo na regres ukoliko nešto pođe po zlu.

So let's take the first example, not knowing who we're dealing with.

Razmotrimo prvi primer kada ne znamo s kim imamo posla.

Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.

Recimo da želim da kupim polovan pametni telefon na Ibeju.

The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.

Prva stvar koju ću da uradim je da istražim od koga kupujem.

Are they a power user?

Da li je iskusan korisnik?

Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?

Da li ima dobre komentare i ocene ili uopšte nema profil?

Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:

Komentari, ocene, znakovi odobravanja -

these are the attestations about our identities

to su potvrde o našim identitetima

that we cobble together today

koje sakupljamo danas

i koristimo da bismo umanjili nesigurnost u pogledu toga sa kim poslujemo.

and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.

But the problem is they're very fragmented.

Međutim, problem je što su veoma fragmentovane.

Think about how many profiles you have.

Pomislite samo koliko profila imate.

Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform

Blokčejnovi nam omogućavaju da stvorimo otvorenu, globalnu platformu

na kojoj možemo čuvati potvrde o bilo kom pojedincu

on which to store any attestation about any individual

from any source.

iz bilo kog izvora.

This allows us to create a user-controlled

Ovo nam omogućava da stvorimo

prenosivi identitet koji kontrolišu korisnici.

portable identity.

More than a profile,

U pitanju je više od profila;

it means you can selectively reveal

to znači da možete selektivno razotkriti

različite svoje atribute

the different attributes about you

da biste olakšali trgovinu ili interakciju,

that help facilitate trade or interaction,

for instance that a government issued you an ID,

na primer, da vam je vlast izdala ličnu kartu,

or that you're over 21,

ili da imate više od 21 godine,

by revealing the cryptographic proof

otkrivanjem kriptografskog dokaza

da ti detalji postoje i da su zvanično potvrđeni.

that these details exist and are signed off on.

Having this kind of portable identity

Posedovanje ovakvog prenosivog identiteta

u okviru fizičkog i digitalnog sveta

around the physical world and the digital world

znači da možemo da vršimo najrazličitije razmene

means we can do all kinds of human trade

in a totally new way.

na potpuno nov način.

So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty

Dakle, govorila sam o tome kako blokčejn može umanjiti neizvesnost

in who we're dealing with.

u pogledu toga sa kim imamo posla.

Druga nesigurnost sa kojom se često suočavamo

The second uncertainty that we often face

is just not having transparency into our interactions.

je neraspolaganje jasnim uvidom u naše interakcije.

Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.

Recimo da ćete mi poslati taj telefon poštom.

I want some degree of transparency.

Ja želim da imam neki stepen uvida.

Želim da znam da je proizvod koji sam kupila isti taj koji stiže poštom

I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail

and that there's some record for how it got to me.

i da postoji neki zapis o tome kako je došao do mene.

This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,

To važi ne samo za elektroniku kao što su telefoni,

but for many kinds of goods and data,

već za razne vrste robe i podataka,

things like medicine, luxury goods,

stvari kao što su lekovi, luksuzna roba,

bilo kakve podatke ili proizvode za koje ne želimo da budu falsifikovani.

any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.

The problem in many companies,

Problem u mnogim kompanijama,

naročito u onima koje proizvode nešto tako složeno kao pametni telefon,

especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,

is they're managing all of these different vendors

je da vrše nadzor nad svim tim različitim dobavljačima

u okviru horizontalnog lanca snabdevanja.

across a horizontal supply chain.

All of these people that go into making a product,

Svi ti ljudi koji učestvuju u pravljenju proizvoda

they don't have the same database.

nemaju istu bazu podataka.

They don't use the same infrastructure,

Ne koriste istu infrastrukturu,

and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.

tako da postaje zaista teško jasno videti kako se proizvod vremenom razvija.

Using the blockchain, we can create

Korišćenjem blokčejna,

možemo stvoriti zajedničku stvarnost za nepoverljiva lica.

a shared reality across nontrusting entities.

By this I mean

Pod tim podrazumevam

all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other

da se sve te tačke u mreži ne moraju međusobno poznavati

or trust each other,

niti verovati jedne drugoj,

because they each have the ability

jer svaka ima mogućnost

to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.

da sama nadgleda i utvrđuje validnost lanca.

Ponovo se setite Vikipedije.

Think back to Wikipedia.

It's a shared database,

To je baza podataka koja se deli,

i iako ima više čitalaca

and even though it has multiple readers

and multiple writers at the same time,

i više pisaca u isto vreme,

it has one single truth.

ima samo jednu istinu.

So we can create that using blockchains.

To možemo stvoriti korišćenjem blokčejnova.

We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly

Možemo napraviti decentralizovanu bazu podataka

koja ima istu efikasnost monopola, a da ne stvara centralni autoritet.

without actually creating that central authority.

So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,

Tako svi ti dobavljači, razne vrste kompanija,

can interact using the same database without trusting one another.

mogu stupati u interakciju koristeći istu bazu

i bez poverenja jedni u druge.

It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.

To za potrošače znači da možemo imati mnogo više transparentnosti.

As a real-world object travels along,

Dok predmet u stvarnom svetu putuje,

we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,

možemo videti njegov digitalni sertifikat ili token kako se pomera na blokčejnu,

pridodajući mu vrednost dok se kreće.

adding value as it goes.

This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.

Ovo je čitav novi svet u pogledu naše vidljivosti.

So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity

Govorila sam o tome kako blokčejnovi mogu smanjiti našu nesigurnost

u vezi sa identitetom

and how they change what we mean about transparency

i kako menjaju ono što podrazumevamo pod transparentnošću

in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.

kod razmena koje su složene i na velikoj udaljenosti,

kao u lancu nabavke.

The last uncertainty that we often face

Poslednja neizvesnost sa kojom se često suočavamo

is one of the most open-ended, and it's reneging.

je jedna od najraširenijih, a to je neispunjavanje dogovora.

What if you don't send me the smartphone?

Šta ako mi ne pošaljete telefon?

Can I get my money back?

Da li mogu da povratim novac?

Blockchains allow us to write code,

Blokčejnovi nam omogućavaju da zabeležimo kod,

binding contracts,

obavezujući ugovor,

between individuals

između pojedinaca

and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out

i zatim garantujemo da će ti ugovori biti ispunjeni

without a third party enforcer.

bez primene sile trećeg lica.

So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.

Ako pogledamo primer sa telefonom, mogli biste pomisliti na uslovni ugovor.

You are financing that phone,

Vi finansirate taj telefon,

but you don't need to release the funds

ali ne morate da date novac

until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.

dok ne potvrdite da su ispunjeni svi uslovi -

da ste dobili telefon.

You got the phone.

I think this is one of the most exciting ways

Mislim da je ovo jedan od najuzbudljivijih načina

that blockchains lower our uncertainties,

na koje blokčejn umanjuje našu nesigurnost,

because it means to some degree

jer to u izvesnoj meri znači

we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.

da možemo srušiti institucije i njihovu primenu.

It means a lot of human economic activity

To znači da veliki deo ekonomske aktivnosti ljudi

can get collateralized and automated,

može biti kolateralizovan i automatizovan

and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,

i da može pogurati do krajnjih granica dosta ljudskih intervencija,

the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.

na mesta gde se informacije premeštaju iz stvarnog sveta u blokčejn.

I think what would probably floor Douglass North

Mislim da bi Daglasa Norta verovatno oborila s nogu,

about this use of technology

u vezi sa ovim korišćenjem tehnologije,

is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,

činjenica da upravo ono što omogućava da funkcioniše,

the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,

baš ono što blokčejn čini sigurnim i proverenim

is our mutual distrust.

jeste naše međusobno nepoverenje.

So rather than all of our uncertainties

Umesto da nas sve naše nesigurnosti

slowing us down

usporavaju i zahtevaju institucije

and requiring institutions

like banks, our governments, our corporations,

kao što su banke, vlade i korporacije,

we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty

zapravo možemo iskoristiti svu tu kolektivnu nesigurnost

and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.

i upotrebiti je da sarađujemo i razmenjujemo više, brže i otvorenije.

Now, I don't want you to get the impression

Ne bih da steknete utisak

that the blockchain is the solution to everything,

da je blokčejn rešenje za sve,

even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty,

mada su mediji rekli da će okončati siromaštvo u svetu,

it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem

da će takođe rešiti problem falsifikovanja lekova,

and potentially save the rainforest.

a moguće i spasiti prašume.

The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,

Istina je da je ova tehnologija u svom začetku

and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place

i da ćemo morati da vidimo odvijanje mnogih eksperimenata

and probably fail

i verovatno njihov neuspeh

pre nego što zaista budemo razumeli sve primere korišćenja

before we truly understand all of the use cases

for our economy.

za našu ekonomiju.

But there are tons of people working on this,

Postoji gomila ljudi koji rade na ovome,

from financial institutions

od finansijskih institucija do tehnoloških kompanija,

to technology companies, start-ups and universities.

startapova i univerziteta.

Jedan od razloga tome je to što nije u pitanju samo ekonomski razvoj.

And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.

To je, takođe, inovacija u informatici.

It's also an innovation in computer science.

Blockchains give us the technological capability

Blokčejnovi nam pružaju tehnološku sposobnost

of creating a record of human exchange,

stvaranja zapisa o razmeni ljudi,

of exchange of currency,

o razmeni valuta,

of all kinds of digital and physical assets,

raznoraznih digitalnih i fizičkih dobara,

even of our own personal attributes,

pa čak i naših ličnih atributa

na potpuno nov način.

in a totally new way.

So in some ways,

Tako na neki način

postaju tehnološka institucija

they become a technological institution

koja ima mnogo prednosti tradicionalnih institucija

that has a lot of the benefits

of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society,

koje smo navikli da koristimo u društvu,

but it does this in a decentralized way.

ali to čine na decentralizovani način.

It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties

To se odvija pretvaranjem mnogih naših neizvesnosti

into certainties.

u izvesnosti.

So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,

Zato mislim da treba da počnemo da se pripremamo,

because we are about to face a world

jer ćemo se uskoro suočiti sa svetom

where distributed, autonomous institutions

gde raspodeljene, autonomne institucije

have quite a significant role.

imaju prilično značajnu ulogu.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.

Bruno Đuzani: Hvala ti, Betina.

I think I understood that it's coming,

Mislim da razumem šta predstoji,

it offers a lot of potential,

a to pruža mnogo potencijala

and it's complex.

i složeno je.

What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?

Kakva je tvoja procena u vezi sa brzinom usvajanja?

Betina Vorberg: Mislim da je to veoma dobro pitanje.

Bettina Warburg: I think that's a really good question.

My lab is pretty much focused

Moja laboratorija je prilično fokusirana

on going the enterprise and government route first,

na kretanje putem firmi i vlade,

because in reality, blockchain is a complex technology.

jer je blokčejn zapravo složena tehnologija.

How many of you actually understand how the internet works?

Koliko vas zaista razume kako internet funkcioniše?

Ali ga koristite svakoga dana,

But you use it every day,

so I think we're sort of facing the same John Sculley idea

i zato mislim da se donekle suočavamo sa istom idejom Džona Skalija

of technology should either be invisible or beautiful,

da tehnologija treba da bude nevidljiva ili prelepa,

and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now,

a blokčejn trenutno nije nijedno od ta dva,

pa je pogodniji za one koji baš rano usvajaju nove stvari,

so it's better suited for either really early adopters

koji ga kapiraju i mogu da se igraju sa njim,

who kind of get it and can tinker around

or for finding those best use cases

ili za pronalaženje najboljih primera korišćenja

like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts

kao što su praćenje identiteta, imovine ili pametnih ugovora

that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.

koji se mogu koristiti na tom nivou firme ili vlade.

BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.

BĐ: Hvala. Hvala što si došla na TED.

BW: Thanks.

BV: Hvala.

(Aplauz)

(Applause)