How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

翻译人员: 小布 陈 校对人员: cookie fu

Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:

经济学家已经研究人类行为数百年的时间了，

how we make decisions,

研究我们如何做决定，

how we act individually and in groups,

我们作为个人和群体时如何表现，

how we exchange value.

我们如何交换价值。

They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,

他们还研究促进我们交易的机构，

like legal systems,

例如法制系统，

corporations,

公司，

marketplaces.

交易市场。

But there is a new, technological institution

但现在有一种全新的技术，

that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,

它能从根本上改变我们交易的方式，

and it's called the blockchain.

它叫做“区块链”。

Now, that's a pretty bold statement,

现在来说，这是个很大胆的陈述，

but if you take nothing else away from this talk,

但是如果你在这里什么都没听懂的话，

I actually want you to remember

我仍希望各位记得

that while blockchain technology is relatively new,

即使“区块链”技术相对很新鲜，

it's also a continuation of a very human story,

但它也是我们人类故事的一个延续，

故事是这样的：

and the story is this.

As humans, we find ways

作为人类，我们一直在寻找

to lower uncertainty about one another

那些能降低彼此之间不确定性的方式，

so that we can exchange value.

以便我们能够进行交易。

Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea

目前为止，最先真正在经济学里

of institutions as a tool in economics

研究如何将制度作为工具

to lower our uncertainties about one another

来降低我们彼此之间不确定性

and be able to do trade

以便我们能够交易的人中，

was the Nobel economist Douglass North.

有一位是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者 道格拉斯－诺斯。

He passed away at the end of 2015,

他于2015年年底辞世，

but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."

但他开创了“新制度经济学”。

And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules

他所说的制度是指那些正式的规则，

like a constitution,

比如说宪法，

and informal constraints, like bribery.

还有一些非正式的规则，例如贿赂。

These institutions are really the grease

这些制度是带动

我们经济发展的润滑剂。

that allow our economic wheels to function,

and we can see this play out over the course of human history.

这些制度在整个人类历史上 一直扮演重要角色。

If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,

如果我们回想一下， 当我们还处于采集狩猎经济时代时，

we really just traded within our village structure.

我们只能在自己村落里做交易，

We had some informal constraints in place,

交易在空间上受到了一些非正式的限制，

but we enforced all of our trade with violence

但是我们会用暴力或是社会影响力

or social repercussions.

强制进行这些交易。

As our societies grew more complex

当我们的社会变得更加复杂，

and our trade routes grew more distant,

并且我们交易的路线变得更加遥远，

we built up more formal institutions,

我们建立了更多的正式机构，

institutions like banks for currency,

例如货币银行，

governments, corporations.

政府，公司。

These institutions helped us manage our trade

在交易的不确定性和复杂性增加

as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,

以及我们的个人掌控力下降的情况下。

and our personal control was much lower.

这些机构能帮助我们管理我们的交易。

Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.

最终，随着互联网的发展， 我们在网上也建立了同样的机构。

We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,

我们建立了交易平台， 如亚马逊，易趣、阿里巴巴，

just faster institutions that act as middlemen

这些运作更快速的机构 扮演了中间人的角色，

to facilitate human economic activity.

促进了人们的经济活动。

正如道格拉斯.诺斯预测的，

As Douglass North saw it,

institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty

制度是用来降低不确定性的工具，

so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.

让我们可以在社会中建立联系 并交换各种有价值的东西。

And I believe we are now entering

我还相信我们现在正在进入

a further and radical evolution

一个更深远更重大的演变，

of how we interact and trade,

人们之间的互动和交易方式将改变。

because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty

因为，这是第一次我们可以降低不确定

not just with political and economic institutions,

不是通过政治或者经济机构，

like our banks, our corporations, our governments,

例如银行，公司和政府，

but we can do it with technology alone.

而是单独依靠技术做到这点。

So what is the blockchain?

所以什么是“区块链”呢？

Blockchain technology is a decentralized database

“区块链”技术是一种分散式数据库，

that stores a registry of assets and transactions

它通过对等网络

across a peer-to-peer network.

存储使用者的资产登记和交易信息，

It's basically a public registry

基本来说，这是一个公开的记录系统，

of who owns what and who transacts what.

上面记录了谁拥有什么和谁交易过什么。

The transactions are secured through cryptography,

交易记录是通过密码被安全保护的，

and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data

时间一过，交易记录会被封存在数据块里，

that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.

然后数据块会进行加密连接并安全封存。

This creates an immutable, unforgeable record

这就创建了一个不可改变且不会丢失的记录，

of all of the transactions across this network.

包含了所有这个网络下的交易记录。

This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.

这些记录在这个网络的每台电脑上 都进行了备份。

It's not an app.

这不是一个应用程序，

也不是一个公司。

It's not a company.

I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.

我觉得最接近的描述 应该像是维基百科。

We can see everything on Wikipedia.

我们在维基百科上能看到每样东西，

It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.

它是不断变化和更新的复合面貌。

We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,

我们也可以在维基百科上 实时跟踪这些变化，

and we can create our own wikis,

我们也可以创建我们自己的维基。

because at their core, they're just a data infrastructure.

因为他们的核心， 只是数据的基础架构。

On Wikipedia, it's an open platform that stores words and images

维基百科是一个开放的平台， 储存着文字和图片，

and the changes to that data over time.

以及随时间更新的数据。

On the blockchain,

“区块链”，

you can think of it as an open infrastructure

你也可以把它当成一个开放的基础设施架构，

that stores many kinds of assets.

上面储存着各种各样的资产。

It stores the history of custodianship,

它存储了资产的履历，包含资产的管理者、

ownership and location

拥有者和地点等变动信息。

for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,

这些资产包括像比特币那样的资产，

other digital assets

以及其他数字资产，

like a title of ownership of IP.

比如一个网络IP的所有权。

It could be a certificate, a contract,

它可以是一个证书、一个合同，

real world objects,

现实世界的物件，

even personal identifiable information.

甚至是个人的身份信息。

There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,

当然“区块链”还有其他的技术细节，

but at its core, that's how it works.

但它的核心是这样运作的。

It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network

它是公开的记录系统， 存储着该网络的所有交易记录，

and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.

而且它可以复制到网络中的每台电脑， 因此它非常安全，很难被篡改。

Which brings me to my point

这就引申出我要说的重点，

of how blockchains lower uncertainty

”区块链“可以如何降低”不确定性“，

and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems

以及他们如何因此彻底地

改变我们的经济体系。

in radical ways.

So uncertainty is kind of a big term

“不确定性”在经济上，

似乎是一个大术语，

in economics,

but I want to go through three forms of it

但是我想通过三个方面来介绍

that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,

我们日常交易中几乎都会遇到的 不确定性问题，

where blockchains can play a role.

以及”区域块“在这些问题中可以扮演的角色。

We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with,

我们面对的不确定性例如： 我们不知在跟谁交易，

not having visibility into a transaction

交易过程不透明，

and not having recourse if things go wrong.

还有如果出现问题我们不知如何求助。

So let's take the first example, not knowing who we're dealing with.

那么我们来先谈谈第一条，不知在跟谁交易。

Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.

比如说我想在易趣上买个二手手机，

The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.

我要做的第一件事就是确认我要跟谁买。

Are they a power user?

他们是超级用户吗？

Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?

他们有收到好评吗？ 还是说根本没有他们的介绍？

Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:

评价，打分，核查标记：

these are the attestations about our identities

这些是我们今天用来拼凑

对方身份信息的证据，

that we cobble together today

这些信息用来降低对方身份的不确定性。

and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.

But the problem is they're very fragmented.

但问题是这些信息非常零碎，

Think about how many profiles you have.

想想你个人就有多少份简介。

Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform

”区块链“可以让我们创建 一个开放的、全球的平台，

on which to store any attestation about any individual

可以存储来自任何来源的

from any source.

个人身份证明信息。

This allows us to create a user-controlled

这样，我们创建了一个用户控制的

portable identity.

便携的身份证明。

More than a profile,

这不只是一个简介，

it means you can selectively reveal

它意味着你可以选择性地揭示

the different attributes about you

你的不同个人属性

that help facilitate trade or interaction,

以便交易或者互动。

for instance that a government issued you an ID,

例如想证明政府给你发了一个身份证，

or that you're over 21,

或者证明你超过21岁，

by revealing the cryptographic proof

只要揭示相关的密码凭证，

that these details exist and are signed off on.

就可证明这些信息是 真实存在并且通过签字的。

Having this kind of portable identity

有了这种连接真实与数字世界的

around the physical world and the digital world

便携式身份证明，

means we can do all kinds of human trade

意味着我们可以用一种全新的方式

in a totally new way.

来做任何类型的交易。

So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty

我阐述完”区块链“在我们跟谁交易方面

in who we're dealing with.

是如何降低不确定性的。

The second uncertainty that we often face

第二个我们经常遇到的不确定性问题

is just not having transparency into our interactions.

是交易过程缺乏透明度。

Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.

比如说你要给我邮寄智能手机

I want some degree of transparency.

我想要有一定的透明度。

I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail

我想知道我买的东西跟寄到我邮箱里的东西 是否是同一个东西，

and that there's some record for how it got to me.

还有一些关于这个东西邮寄过程的记录。

This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,

不仅像智能手机这样的电子产品如此，

but for many kinds of goods and data,

很多类型的产品和数据也适用，

things like medicine, luxury goods,

例如药物，奢侈品，

any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.

以及任何我们不想被掉包的数据或产品。

The problem in many companies,

很多公司都有这个问题，

especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,

尤其是那些生产像智能手机这种复杂产品的公司，

is they're managing all of these different vendors

他们通过一个水平的供货链，

来管理所有不同的供应商。

across a horizontal supply chain.

All of these people that go into making a product,

参与产品制造的所有相关人士，

they don't have the same database.

他们没有同一份数据库。

They don't use the same infrastructure,

他们不使用同一套基础数据架构，

and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.

因此很难看到一个产品是如何随时间变化的。

Using the blockchain, we can create

利用区块链，我们可以在

a shared reality across nontrusting entities.

在陌生的个体之间 创建一个共享的事实。

By this I mean

我的意思是

all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other

所有在这个网络里的的节点 不需要互相认识，

or trust each other,

或者互相信任，

because they each have the ability

因为他们都有能力

to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.

自己来监控和确认生产链。

Think back to Wikipedia.

回看一下维基百科。

It's a shared database,

它是一个共享的数据库，

即使它同时拥有很多不同的读者

and even though it has multiple readers

and multiple writers at the same time,

和不同作者，

it has one single truth.

但是只有一个事实。

So we can create that using blockchains.

我们可以利用区块链来创建类似的系统。

We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly

我们可以创建一个分散的数据库， 让它有跟垄断一样的效果，

without actually creating that central authority.

但不用真的创建中心管理机构。

So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,

因此所有的供应商，所有类型的公司，

can interact using the same database without trusting one another.

不需要相互信任， 都可以使用这个相同的数据库，

It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.

对消费者来说， 我们对产品就有了更多的透明度。

As a real-world object travels along,

当一个现实世界的东西寄出时，

we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,

我们可以它的数字认证或者标记 在区块链上变动

adding value as it goes.

随着它的移动而添加记录值。

This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.

就我们的能见度而言， 这是一个全新的世界。

So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity

现在我已经描述了区块链 如何在身份认证方面降低不确定性

and how they change what we mean about transparency

以及如何改变供应链中

in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.

长距离和复杂贸易中的透明度。

The last uncertainty that we often face

最后我们经常遇到 也是一个最难限制的“不确定性”是

is one of the most open-ended, and it's reneging.

违约问题。

What if you don't send me the smartphone?

如果你不给我寄手机怎么办？

Can I get my money back?

我能拿回我的钱吗？

Blockchains allow us to write code,

区块链让我们可以在个体之间，

binding contracts,

写代码

between individuals

建合约

and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out

还担保在没有第三方介入的情况下

without a third party enforcer.

这些合约就能履行。

So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.

因此如果我们来看手机的例子， 你可能会想到第三方托管。

You are financing that phone,

你花钱买这个手机，

but you don't need to release the funds

但你不必在尚未确认 所有合同条件都符合

until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.

并拿到手机前，

You got the phone.

把钱付给卖家。

I think this is one of the most exciting ways

我觉得这是区块链在降低不确定性方面

that blockchains lower our uncertainties,

最让人兴奋的地方。

because it means to some degree

因为这意味着，在某种层面上，

we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.

我们可以不再需要 通过机构来保证交易执行了，

It means a lot of human economic activity

意味着有更多的人类经济活动，

can get collateralized and automated,

可以自动地得到担保抵押，

and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,

而将很多人为干扰因素局限在外边，

the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.

信息从真实世界进入到区块链后 就不再受干扰。

I think what would probably floor Douglass North

我觉得这个技术的使用，

about this use of technology

会让道格拉斯.诺斯感到冲击的是

is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,

”区块链“技术真的办到了他说的事情。

the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,

而让”区块链“保持安全和正确的

is our mutual distrust.

恰恰就是我们彼此之间的不信任。

So rather than all of our uncertainties

因此我们不再需要让所有的不确定性

slowing us down

拖慢我们的脚步，

and requiring institutions

或是建立一些机构

like banks, our governments, our corporations,

像银行，政府，公司，

we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty

实际上我们可以驾驭这些所有的不确定性，

and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.

并用它进行更多的合作和交换，而且更快更开放。

Now, I don't want you to get the impression

现在，我不想你有这样一个印象

that the blockchain is the solution to everything,

以为区块链可以解决任何事情。

even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty,

虽然有媒体称它将消灭世界贫穷，

it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem

将要解决毒品问题，

and potentially save the rainforest.

还有拯救热带雨林的潜力。

The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,

但事实是，这个技术还处于起步阶段，

and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place

在我们真正理解所有

and probably fail

”区域块“技术在经济上的应用案例之前，

before we truly understand all of the use cases

我们还需观察许多实验的结果，

也有可能会失败。

for our economy.

But there are tons of people working on this,

但是有很多人正在从事这方面的研究，

from financial institutions

从金融机构，

to technology companies, start-ups and universities.

到技术公司，新兴公司和学校。

其中的一个原因就是 这不仅仅是一个经济方面的演变，

And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.

It's also an innovation in computer science.

这也是计算机科学方面的创新。

Blockchains give us the technological capability

“区块链”提供我们一个技术能力

of creating a record of human exchange,

使我们能够创建交易记录，

of exchange of currency,

货币交换的记录，

of all kinds of digital and physical assets,

各种数据和物质资产的记录，

even of our own personal attributes,

甚至是我们的个人属性记录，

它用一个全新的方式进行记录。

in a totally new way.

So in some ways,

所以在某些方面来说，

they become a technological institution

他们变成了一个技术机构，

that has a lot of the benefits

它拥有我们以往社会中用到的传统机构的

of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society,

很多优点。

but it does this in a decentralized way.

但它是通过一个分散的方式达成的。

It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties

它将很多的不确定性

转化为确定。

into certainties.

So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,

所以我认为我们要开始准备了，

because we are about to face a world

因为我们即将面对这样一个世界，

where distributed, autonomous institutions

这个世界里，分散的、自主式的机构

have quite a significant role.

将扮演相当重要的角色。

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）

Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.

Bruno Giussani: 谢谢 Bettina.

I think I understood that it's coming,

我觉得我能理解”区块链“将要到来，

it offers a lot of potential,

它提供了很多潜在的机会，

and it's complex.

而且很复杂。

What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?

你预计”区域块“的采用率会是怎样呢？

Bettina Warburg: I think that's a really good question.

Bettina Warburg: 这是个好问题。

My lab is pretty much focused

我的实验大部分

on going the enterprise and government route first,

先从企业和政府方面入手，

because in reality, blockchain is a complex technology.

因为在现实中，区块链是个很复杂的技术，

How many of you actually understand how the internet works?

在座有多少人是真正理解因特网的运作呢？

But you use it every day,

但是你们每天都在使用，

so I think we're sort of facing the same John Sculley idea

所以我觉得我们在面对 約翰．史考利（前苹果公司执行官）所说的情况，

of technology should either be invisible or beautiful,

科技要么最好让人看不到要么让人觉得很美，

and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now,

而区块链目前两样都不具备。

so it's better suited for either really early adopters

所以它更适合于早期使用者

who kind of get it and can tinker around

这种人既能接受它，也能修改它，

or for finding those best use cases

或者用来从中找到最佳使用情景，

like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts

比如企业或政府层级的用户

that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.

可以用来做身份证明、资产追踪，或者智能合同。

BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.

BG: 谢谢，谢谢你来到TED

BW: Thanks.

BW:谢谢

(Applause)

(掌声）