How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

2,392,645 views

2016-12-08 ・ TED


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How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

2,392,645 views ・ 2016-12-08

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:13
Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:
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Ekonomisti istražuju ljudsko ponašanje stotinama godina:
00:18
how we make decisions,
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kako donosimo odluke,
00:20
how we act individually and in groups,
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kako se ponašamo pojedinačno i u grupi,
00:23
how we exchange value.
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kako razmjenjujemo vrijednosti.
00:26
They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,
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Proučavali su institucije koje omogućuju našu razmjenu,
00:30
like legal systems,
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poput pravnih sustava,
00:31
corporations,
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dioničkih društava,
00:33
marketplaces.
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tržišta.
00:35
But there is a new, technological institution
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Sada postoji nova, tehnološka institucija
00:39
that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,
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koja će iz osnove promijeniti način na koji razmjenjujemo vrijednosti,
00:43
and it's called the blockchain.
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a zove se blockchain.
00:46
Now, that's a pretty bold statement,
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To je prilično hrabra izjava,
00:48
but if you take nothing else away from this talk,
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i ako upamtite samo jednu stvar s ovog predavanja
00:51
I actually want you to remember
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želim da se sjećate
00:53
that while blockchain technology is relatively new,
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da iako je blockchain tehnologija relativno nova,
00:57
it's also a continuation of a very human story,
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ona je i nastavak vrlo ljudske priče
01:02
and the story is this.
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koja glasi ovako.
01:04
As humans, we find ways
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Mi ljudi, nalazimo načine
01:06
to lower uncertainty about one another
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i smanjujemo međusobnu nesigurnost
01:08
so that we can exchange value.
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kako mogli razmjenjivati vrijednosti.
01:13
Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea
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Jedan od prvih ljudi koji je zaista istraživao ovu ideju
01:16
of institutions as a tool in economics
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o institucijama kao ekonomskom alatu
01:19
to lower our uncertainties about one another
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koji smanjuje našu međusobnu nesigurnost
01:22
and be able to do trade
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kako bismo mogli trgovati
01:24
was the Nobel economist Douglass North.
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je bio dobitnik Nobela za ekonomiju Douglass North.
01:27
He passed away at the end of 2015,
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Preminuo je krajem 2015.
01:29
but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."
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a bio je pionir u onome što nazivamo "nova institucionalna ekonomija."
01:35
And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules
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Pod institucijama je podrazumijevao zapravo formalna pravila
01:39
like a constitution,
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poput ustava
01:41
and informal constraints, like bribery.
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i neformalnih ograničenja, poput mita.
01:45
These institutions are really the grease
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Takve institucije su zaista mazivo
01:48
that allow our economic wheels to function,
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koje omogućavaju funkcioniranje našim ekonomskim kotačima
01:51
and we can see this play out over the course of human history.
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i možemo vidjeti kako se to odvijalo tijekom ljudske povijesti.
01:55
If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,
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Ako pomislimo na doba kad smo bili lovačko-skupljačka ekonomija
01:58
we really just traded within our village structure.
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trgovali smo zapravo samo unutar strukture našeg sela.
02:01
We had some informal constraints in place,
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Imali smo neka neformalna ograničenja,
02:04
but we enforced all of our trade with violence
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pa smo našu trgovinu proveli silom i nasiljem
02:07
or social repercussions.
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odnosno društvenim pritiscima.
02:09
As our societies grew more complex
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Kako su naša društva postojala sve složenija,
02:12
and our trade routes grew more distant,
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a naše trgovačke rute sve udaljenije
02:15
we built up more formal institutions,
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gradili smo sve formalnije institucije
02:18
institutions like banks for currency,
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poput banaka za novac,
02:21
governments, corporations.
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vlada, dioničkih društava.
02:24
These institutions helped us manage our trade
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Ove institucije su nam pomogle upravljati trgovinom
02:27
as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,
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kako su nesigurnost i složenost rasli,
02:30
and our personal control was much lower.
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a naša sposobnost kontrole bivala sve manja.
02:33
Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.
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Tek s pojavom interneta su se neke od tih institucija pojavile na mreži.
02:38
We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,
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Izgradili smo platforme za trgovanje poput Amazona, eBaya, Alibabe
02:43
just faster institutions that act as middlemen
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koji su brže institucije koje djeluju kao posrednici
02:46
to facilitate human economic activity.
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i omogućuju ekonomsku aktivnost ljudi.
02:51
As Douglass North saw it,
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Douglass North je vidio
02:54
institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty
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institucije kao alat za smanjenje nesigurnosti
02:57
so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.
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kako bismo se povezali i razmjenjivali sve vrste vrijednosti u društvu.
03:02
And I believe we are now entering
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Ja vjerujemo da sada započinjemo
03:05
a further and radical evolution
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daljnju, radikalnu evoluciju
03:08
of how we interact and trade,
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kako surađujemo i trgujemo,
03:10
because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty
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jer po prvi put, nesigurnost možemo smanjiti
03:14
not just with political and economic institutions,
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ne samo pomoću političkih i ekonomskih institucija,
03:17
like our banks, our corporations, our governments,
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poput banaka, poduzeća ili vlada,
03:21
but we can do it with technology alone.
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nego pomoću tehnologije same.
03:25
So what is the blockchain?
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Pa što je blockchain?
03:27
Blockchain technology is a decentralized database
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Tehnologija blockchain je decentralizirana baza podataka
03:32
that stores a registry of assets and transactions
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koja čuva zapis o imovini i transakcijama
03:35
across a peer-to-peer network.
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putem peer-to-peer mreže.
03:38
It's basically a public registry
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To je, zapravo, javni zapis
03:40
of who owns what and who transacts what.
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o tome tko je vlasnik čega i tko trguje s čime.
03:43
The transactions are secured through cryptography,
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Transakcije su osigurane kriptografijom,
03:46
and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data
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a tijekom vremena, povijest transakcija je spremljena u blokove podataka
03:52
that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.
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koji se kriptografski povezuju i osiguravaju.
03:57
This creates an immutable, unforgeable record
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To stvara zapise svih transakcija širom mreže
04:01
of all of the transactions across this network.
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koje nije moguće mijenjati i krivotvoriti.
04:05
This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.
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Taj zapis se replicira na svakom računalu koje se koristi mrežom.
04:11
It's not an app.
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To nije aplikacija.
04:13
It's not a company.
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To nije poduzeće.
04:15
I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.
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Mislim da je najbliži opis kako je to nešto poput Wikipedije.
04:19
We can see everything on Wikipedia.
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Na Wikipediji možemo vidjeti sve.
04:21
It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.
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To je složeni pogled koji se stalno mijenja i osvježava.
04:27
We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,
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Mi možemo i pratiti promjene na Wikipediji tijekom vremena,
04:31
and we can create our own wikis,
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a možemo kreirati i naše vlastite wikije,
04:33
because at their core, they're just a data infrastructure.
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jer su oni u osnovi infrastruktura za podatke.
04:38
On Wikipedia, it's an open platform that stores words and images
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Na Wikipediji, to je otvorena platforma koja čuva riječi i fotografije
04:44
and the changes to that data over time.
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i promjene o tim podacima tijekom vremena.
04:47
On the blockchain,
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Blockchain
04:49
you can think of it as an open infrastructure
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zamislite kao otvorenu infrastrukturu
04:51
that stores many kinds of assets.
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koja čuva mnoge vrste imovine.
04:55
It stores the history of custodianship,
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Bilježi povijest skrbnika,
04:58
ownership and location
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vlasnika i mjesta
05:00
for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,
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za imovinu poput digitalne valute Bitcoin,
05:04
other digital assets
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druge digitalne imovine
05:06
like a title of ownership of IP.
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poput naslova vlasništva IP adrese.
05:10
It could be a certificate, a contract,
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To može biti certifikat, ugovor,
05:13
real world objects,
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objekti u stvarnom svijetu
05:14
even personal identifiable information.
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čak i informacije za osobnu identifikaciju.
05:19
There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,
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Postoje naravno i drugi tehnički detalji vezani za blockchain,
05:22
but at its core, that's how it works.
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no ovo je osnova, kako on radi.
05:25
It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network
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To je javni zapis koji bilježi transakcije na mreži
05:29
and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.
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i replicira se tako da je vrlo siguran i teško ga je falsificirati.
05:35
Which brings me to my point
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To me dovodi do moje tvrdnje
05:37
of how blockchains lower uncertainty
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kako blockchain smanjuje nesigurnost
05:40
and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems
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i kako zbog toga obećava transformaciju ekonomskih sustava
05:44
in radical ways.
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na radikalan način.
05:47
So uncertainty is kind of a big term
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Nesigurnost se čini velikom temom
05:50
in economics,
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u ekonomiji
05:51
but I want to go through three forms of it
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i želim vam objasniti tri pojma
05:53
that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,
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s kojima se susrećemo u gotovo svim svakodnevnim transakcijama
05:57
where blockchains can play a role.
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gdje bi blockchain mogao imati svoju ulogu.
05:59
We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with,
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Susrećemo nesigurnost kada ne znamo s kim imamo posla,
06:02
not having visibility into a transaction
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ne vidimo kako se transkacija odvija
06:05
and not having recourse if things go wrong.
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i nemamo alternativni pravac ukoliko stvari pođu po zlu.
06:09
So let's take the first example, not knowing who we're dealing with.
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Uzmimo prvi primjer u kojem ne znamo s kim radimo.
06:13
Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.
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Ja želim kupiti polovni mobitel preko eBaya.
06:17
The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.
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Prvo što ću učiniti je pogledati od koga kupujem.
06:21
Are they a power user?
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Jesu li oni važni korisnici?
06:23
Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?
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Imaju li dobre ocjene i komentare ili uopće nemaju profil?
06:28
Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:
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Komentari, ocjene, naznake:
06:31
these are the attestations about our identities
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to su potvrde našeg identiteta
06:35
that we cobble together today
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koji stvaramo svaki dan
06:37
and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.
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i koristimo za smanjenje nesigurnosti o tome s kim radimo.
06:41
But the problem is they're very fragmented.
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Problem je u tome što su oni vrlo rascjepkani.
06:44
Think about how many profiles you have.
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Pomislite samo koliko profila vi imate.
06:48
Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform
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Blockchain nam dozvoljava da stvorimo otvorenu, globalnu platformu
06:54
on which to store any attestation about any individual
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na kojoj možemo čuvati bilo koju potvrdu o bilo kojem pojedincu
06:58
from any source.
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iz bilo kojeg izvora.
07:00
This allows us to create a user-controlled
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To nam dozvoljava kreiranje pokretnog identiteta
07:03
portable identity.
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kojeg kontroliraju korisnici.
07:07
More than a profile,
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Više nego profil
07:09
it means you can selectively reveal
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on znači da možete selektivno otkrivati
07:13
the different attributes about you
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svoje različite karakteristike
07:15
that help facilitate trade or interaction,
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koje vam pomažu završiti trgovinu ili interakciju.
07:18
for instance that a government issued you an ID,
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na primjer, da vam je vlada dodijelila identifikacijski broj
07:21
or that you're over 21,
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ili da ste punoljetni.
07:23
by revealing the cryptographic proof
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otkrivanjem kriptografskog dokaza
07:26
that these details exist and are signed off on.
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da ovi detalji postoje i da su ovjereni.
07:30
Having this kind of portable identity
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Imati ovakav tip portabilnog identiteta
07:33
around the physical world and the digital world
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sa sobom u stvarnom svijetu ili digitalnom svijetu
07:36
means we can do all kinds of human trade
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znači da možete sudjelovati u svim vrstama trgovine među ljudima
07:39
in a totally new way.
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na potpuno novi način.
07:42
So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty
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Govorila sam kako blockchains mogu umanjiti našu nesigurnost
07:45
in who we're dealing with.
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prema ljudima s kojima radimo.
07:47
The second uncertainty that we often face
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Druga nesigurnost s kojemo se često susrećemo
07:49
is just not having transparency into our interactions.
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je manjak transparentnosti u našim interakcijama.
07:53
Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.
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Recimo da mi poštom želite poslati pametni telefon.
07:56
I want some degree of transparency.
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Ja želim određenu transparentnost.
07:58
I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail
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Želim znati da je proizvod koji sam kupila jednak onome koji stiže poštom
08:02
and that there's some record for how it got to me.
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i postoji neki zapis kako je stigao do mene.
08:04
This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,
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To je točno i za elektroniku poput pametnih telefona,
08:07
but for many kinds of goods and data,
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kao i za mnoge druge proizvode i podatke
08:10
things like medicine, luxury goods,
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poput lijekova, luksuznih roba,
08:14
any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.
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bilo kakvih podataka ili proizvoda s koje ne želimo upropastiti.
08:18
The problem in many companies,
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Problem u mnogim poduzećima
08:21
especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,
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osobito u onima koja proizvode nešto složeno poput pametnih telefona,
08:24
is they're managing all of these different vendors
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jest upravljanje različitim dobavljačima
08:27
across a horizontal supply chain.
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duž horizontalnog lanca nabave.
08:30
All of these people that go into making a product,
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Svi ti ljudi uključeni u izradu proizvoda
08:32
they don't have the same database.
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imaju različite podatke.
08:34
They don't use the same infrastructure,
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Koriste različitu infrastrukturu
08:36
and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.
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pa je vrlo teško transparentno vidjeti kako proizvod nastaje tijekom vremena.
08:43
Using the blockchain, we can create
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Korištenjem blockchaina, možemo stvoriti
08:45
a shared reality across nontrusting entities.
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dijeljenu stvarnost međi subjektima kojima nedostaje povjerenje.
08:50
By this I mean
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Time mislim
08:51
all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other
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da se sve te točke u mreži ne moraju poznavati
08:55
or trust each other,
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ili vjerovati jedni drugima
08:56
because they each have the ability
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jer svatko od njih ima sposobnost
08:58
to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.
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nadgledati i provjeravati lanac za sebe.
09:03
Think back to Wikipedia.
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Pomislite opet na Wikipediju.
09:04
It's a shared database,
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To je dijeljena baza podataka,
09:07
and even though it has multiple readers
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i usprkos tome što ima više čitatelja
09:09
and multiple writers at the same time,
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i više pisaca istovremeno
09:11
it has one single truth.
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ima jednu jedinu istinu.
09:14
So we can create that using blockchains.
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Mi to možemo stvoriti korištenjem blockchaina.
09:16
We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly
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Možemo stvoriti decentralizirane baze podataka koje imaju djelotvornost monopola
09:22
without actually creating that central authority.
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bez da kreiraju takav središnji autoritet.
09:26
So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,
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Svi ti proizvođači, sve vrste poduzeća,
09:28
can interact using the same database without trusting one another.
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mogu surađivati korištenjem iste baze podataka bez međusobnog povjerenja.
09:34
It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.
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To za klijenta znači da može postojati veća transparentnost.
09:37
As a real-world object travels along,
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Kako se kreću stvari u stvarnom svijetu
09:39
we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,
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vidimo digitalne certifikate ili tokene kako se prebacuju na blockchain,
09:45
adding value as it goes.
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dodajući time vrijednost.
09:48
This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.
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Kad govorimo o vidljivosti to je potpuno novi svijet.
09:53
So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity
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Govorila sam o tome kako blockchain može smanjiti nesigurnost o identitetu
09:59
and how they change what we mean about transparency
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i kako mijenja ono što podrazumijevamo pod transparentnošću
10:02
in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.
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na velikim razdaljinama i složenim trgovanjima poput nabavnog lanca.
10:07
The last uncertainty that we often face
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Zadnja nesigurnost koju često susrećemo
10:09
is one of the most open-ended, and it's reneging.
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je jedna od najotvorenijih i to je prevara.
10:12
What if you don't send me the smartphone?
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Što ako mi vi ne pošaljete pametni telefon?
10:15
Can I get my money back?
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Mogu li dobiti novac natrag?
10:17
Blockchains allow us to write code,
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Blockchain nam dozvoljava napisati pravila,
10:21
binding contracts,
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obvezujuće ugovore
10:23
between individuals
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među pojedincima
10:24
and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out
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i zatim jamčiti da će ti ugovori biti ispunjeni
10:28
without a third party enforcer.
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bez prisile s treće strane.
10:31
So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.
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Ako pogledamo primjer pametnog telefona zamislite založni račun.
10:35
You are financing that phone,
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Vi financirate taj telefon,
10:37
but you don't need to release the funds
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i ne morate prebaciti novac
10:40
until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.
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dok ne budete sigurni da su svi uvjeti ispoštovani.
10:43
You got the phone.
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Dobijete telefon.
10:46
I think this is one of the most exciting ways
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Mislim da je to jedan najuzbudljivijih načina
10:48
that blockchains lower our uncertainties,
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da blockchain smanji našu nesigurnost,
10:51
because it means to some degree
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jer znači da do nekog stupnja
10:53
we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.
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možemo umanjiti institucije i njihove prisilne mjere.
10:59
It means a lot of human economic activity
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To znači da mnoge ljudske aktivnosti
11:02
can get collateralized and automated,
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mogu postati posredne i automatizirane
11:07
and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,
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i odbaciti mnoge ljudske intervencije na stranu,
11:10
the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.
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mjesta gdje se informacije miču iz stvarnog svijeta u blockchain.
11:16
I think what would probably floor Douglass North
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Mislim da ono što bi vjerojatno
11:19
about this use of technology
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oborilo Douglassa Northa
11:21
is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,
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je činjenica da ono što sve to pokreće
11:24
the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,
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ono što blockchain čini sigurnim i provjerenim
11:29
is our mutual distrust.
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je naše međusobno nepovjerenje.
11:33
So rather than all of our uncertainties
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Umjesto da nas naše vlastite nesigurnosti
11:36
slowing us down
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uspore
11:38
and requiring institutions
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i zahtijevaju institucije
11:40
like banks, our governments, our corporations,
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poput banaka, naših vlada ili naših poduzeća,
11:45
we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty
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mi možemo upregnuti svu tu našu kolektivnu nesigurnost
11:49
and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.
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i koristiti je za bržu i otvoreniju suradnju i razmjenu.
11:56
Now, I don't want you to get the impression
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Ne želim da steknete dojam
11:58
that the blockchain is the solution to everything,
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da je blockchain rješenje za sve
12:01
even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty,
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čak iako su mediji rekli da će iskorijeniti siromaštvo,
12:07
it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem
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riješiti krijumčarenje droga
12:10
and potentially save the rainforest.
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i, možda, spasiti prašume.
12:14
The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,
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Istina je da je ova tehnologija u povojima
12:18
and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place
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i da ćemo trebati napraviti mnogo pokusa
12:21
and probably fail
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i vjerojatno grešaka
12:23
before we truly understand all of the use cases
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prije nego potpuno razumijemo gdje je sve možemo koristiti
12:26
for our economy.
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za našu ekonomiju.
12:29
But there are tons of people working on this,
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Jako puno ljudi radi na tome
12:31
from financial institutions
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od financijskih institucija
12:33
to technology companies, start-ups and universities.
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do tehnoloških poduzeća, startupova i sveučilišta.
12:37
And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.
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I to je jedan od razloga zašto ovo nije samo ekonomska evolucija.
12:42
It's also an innovation in computer science.
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To je također inovacija u računalnoj znanosti.
12:49
Blockchains give us the technological capability
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Blokchain nam daje tehnološku mogućnost
12:52
of creating a record of human exchange,
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stvaranja zapisa o ljudskoj razmjeni,
12:56
of exchange of currency,
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razmjeni valuta,
12:58
of all kinds of digital and physical assets,
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svih vrsta digitalnih i fizičkih imovina,
13:02
even of our own personal attributes,
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čak i naših vlastitih karakteristika,
13:05
in a totally new way.
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na potpuno novi način.
13:07
So in some ways,
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Na neki način,
13:09
they become a technological institution
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oni postaju tehnološka institucija
13:12
that has a lot of the benefits
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koja ima mnogo prednosti
13:13
of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society,
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tradicionalnih institucija na koje smo navikli u našem društvu,
13:18
but it does this in a decentralized way.
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a koristi ih na decentralizirani način.
13:22
It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties
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To radi pretvarajući mnoge naše nesigurnosti
13:25
into certainties.
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u nešto izvjesno.
13:28
So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,
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Trebamo se početi pripremati
13:31
because we are about to face a world
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jer ćemo se uskoro susresti sa svijetom
13:34
where distributed, autonomous institutions
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u kojem će raspodijeljene, samostalne institucije
13:37
have quite a significant role.
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imati značajnu ulogu.
13:40
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:41
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:50
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.
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Bruno Giussani: Hvala ti, Bettina.
13:52
I think I understood that it's coming,
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Mislim da sam razumio što nam dolazi
13:56
it offers a lot of potential,
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i nudi nam puno potencijala,
13:58
and it's complex.
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a vrlo je složeno.
14:00
What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?
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Kakva je tvoja procjena stupnja prihvaćanja?
14:07
Bettina Warburg: I think that's a really good question.
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Bettina Warburg: To je stvarno dobro pitanje.
14:09
My lab is pretty much focused
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Moj laboratorij je fokusiran
14:11
on going the enterprise and government route first,
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najprije na poduzeća i vlade,
14:14
because in reality, blockchain is a complex technology.
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jer u stvarnosti je blockchain složena tehnologija.
14:18
How many of you actually understand how the internet works?
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Koliko od vas zaista razumije kako funkcionira internet?
14:21
But you use it every day,
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A koristite ga svaki dan.
14:22
so I think we're sort of facing the same John Sculley idea
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Mislim da se susrećemo s istom idejom Johna Sculleya
14:26
of technology should either be invisible or beautiful,
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da tehnologija treba biti ili nevidljiva ili lijepa
14:30
and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now,
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a blockchain trenutačno nije niti jedno niti drugo,
14:34
so it's better suited for either really early adopters
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pa je prihvatljiviji onima stvarno naprednima u prihvaćanju novog
14:38
who kind of get it and can tinker around
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koji ga nekako shvaćaju i mogu prtljati po njemu
14:40
or for finding those best use cases
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za pronalaženje najboljih primjera
14:43
like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts
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poput identiteta ili praćenja imovine ili pametnih ugovora
14:46
that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.
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koji se mogu koristiti na razini poduzeća ili vlada.
14:50
BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.
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BG: Hvala što si došla na TED.
14:52
BW: Thanks.
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BW: Hvala!
14:53
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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