How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Seke Wei

經濟學家數百年來不停地 探索人們的行為：

Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:

how we make decisions,

我們怎樣做決定、

how we act individually and in groups,

我們作為個人與群體 如何行動、

how we exchange value.

我們怎樣進行價值交換。

They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,

他們研究這些促進我們交易的制度，

like legal systems,

例如法律系統、

corporations,

企業、

marketplaces.

市場。

But there is a new, technological institution

但現在，有一種全新的科技機制，

即將徹底顛覆我們 價值交換的進行方式，

that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,

它叫做「區塊鏈」。

and it's called the blockchain.

這是個相當大膽的預測，

Now, that's a pretty bold statement,

but if you take nothing else away from this talk,

如果你在這場演講中， 聽不懂我在說什麼，

I actually want you to remember

我仍舊希望各位記得：

that while blockchain technology is relatively new,

「區塊鏈」的技術雖然相對新穎，

it's also a continuation of a very human story,

但它延續了一段人類故事的發展。

故事是這樣的...

and the story is this.

作為人類，

As humans, we find ways

我們一直在尋找各種 降低彼此不確定性的方法，

to lower uncertainty about one another

so that we can exchange value.

以方便價值交換。

真正在經濟學裏

Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea

of institutions as a tool in economics

研究如何將制度當成工具，

to lower our uncertainties about one another

以降低我們彼此間不確定性

and be able to do trade

而能進行交易的學者，

was the Nobel economist Douglass North.

有位是諾貝爾經濟學獎得主 道格拉斯．諾斯。

He passed away at the end of 2015,

他在2015年底去世，

but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."

他開創了「新制度經濟學」。

他所說的制度，只是一些正式的規則，

And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules

like a constitution,

比如說憲法，

and informal constraints, like bribery.

以及非正式的潛規則，例如賄賂。

These institutions are really the grease

這些制度是帶動我們

that allow our economic wheels to function,

經濟體系運轉的潤滑油，

這些制度在我們人類歷史中 扮演了重要的角色。

and we can see this play out over the course of human history.

如果我們回想一下， 當我們還處於狩獵採集的經濟時代時，

If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,

we really just traded within our village structure.

我們只會在自己的村落裏做交易，

We had some informal constraints in place,

我們在交易時 雖有一些非正式的潛規則，

但我們會使用暴力

but we enforced all of our trade with violence

or social repercussions.

或社會公評來強制這些交易的進行。

As our societies grew more complex

當我們的社會越來越多元，

and our trade routes grew more distant,

貿易越來越全球化，

we built up more formal institutions,

我們建立了更多的正式制度，

institutions like banks for currency,

比如負責貨幣流通的銀行、

governments, corporations.

政府，企業。

These institutions helped us manage our trade

這些制度能在社會 不確定性和複雜度升高、

as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,

個人掌控力下降的情況下，

and our personal control was much lower.

幫助我們管理交易的進行。

Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.

之後隨著網路的發展， 我們在網路上也建立了同樣的制度。

We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,

我們建立了線上交易平台， 比如亞馬遜、eBay、阿里巴巴，

這些運作更快速的制度， 扮演了中間人的角色，

just faster institutions that act as middlemen

to facilitate human economic activity.

促進了人類的經濟活動。

As Douglass North saw it,

正如道格拉斯．諾斯所觀察到的，

制度是用來降低不確定性的工具，

institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty

so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.

讓我們可以在社會中 建立起關係並交換各種有價值的東西。

And I believe we are now entering

我認為，我們現在正進入

a further and radical evolution

一種更深遠徹底的演變，

of how we interact and trade,

人們將改變如何互動及交易。

because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty

因為，這是我們第一次 可以自主降低這些不確定性，

不用透過政策或金融制度，

not just with political and economic institutions,

like our banks, our corporations, our governments,

例如銀行、企業和政府的協助 就能完成交易，

but we can do it with technology alone.

我們自己運用科技即可完成。

So what is the blockchain?

所以區塊鏈是什麼？

Blockchain technology is a decentralized database

區塊鏈技術是一種分散式資料庫，

它是透過對等式網絡

that stores a registry of assets and transactions

across a peer-to-peer network.

存放使用者的資產及交易紀錄。

基本上，這是一個公開的記帳系統，

It's basically a public registry

of who owns what and who transacts what.

上面記載了誰持有什麼，誰交易過什麼。

The transactions are secured through cryptography,

交易紀錄是透過加密保護的，

and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data

時間一過，歷史交易紀錄 就會被封存在資料區塊裡，

that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.

資料區塊間會透過加密方式 進行連結及保護。

This creates an immutable, unforgeable record

如此，所有交易就會在這個網路下

of all of the transactions across this network.

留下一個無法更改、編造的紀錄。

This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.

這些交易記錄會在這個網絡上的 每台電腦進行備份。

It's not an app.

區塊鏈不是一個應用程式，

也不是一家公司。

It's not a company.

我覺得最接近的描述 應該像是維基百科。

I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.

We can see everything on Wikipedia.

我們在維基百科上能看到每樣東西。

It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.

其呈現的複合面貌不斷在變動及更新中。

We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,

隨著時間的推移，我們可以在 維基百科上追蹤這些變化，

and we can create our own wikis,

我們也可以創建自己的維基，

because at their core, they're just a data infrastructure.

因為其核心只是個資料基礎架構。

On Wikipedia, it's an open platform that stores words and images

在維基百科上，我們用此開放平台 存放文字和圖片，

以及隨時間添加的資料更動。

and the changes to that data over time.

On the blockchain,

在區塊鏈上，

我們也可將其視為一開放基礎架構，

you can think of it as an open infrastructure

that stores many kinds of assets.

上面存放著各式各樣的資產。

It stores the history of custodianship,

它可儲存資產履歷，包含管理者、

ownership and location

擁有者、位置等變動，

for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,

供比特幣等數位貨幣之用，

other digital assets

或者其它數位資產，

像是智財權擁有者名稱。

like a title of ownership of IP.

It could be a certificate, a contract,

它也可以是一個憑證、一份合約、

real world objects,

真實世界的東西、

even personal identifiable information.

甚至是個人識別資料。

當然區塊鏈還有其他技術細節，

There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,

but at its core, that's how it works.

但其核心是這樣運作的。

這個開放式記帳系統， 存放了該網路的所有交易紀錄，

It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network

and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.

而且所有紀錄都備份到每台電腦， 所以很安全、很難被竄改。

這引申出我要說的重點：

Which brings me to my point

of how blockchains lower uncertainty

區塊鏈可降低不確定性，

and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems

以及因此將徹底地

in radical ways.

改變我們的經濟體系。

So uncertainty is kind of a big term

「不確定性」是經濟學上

in economics,

一個相當重要的專業詞彙，

but I want to go through three forms of it

但我想簡單敘述一下，

that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,

區塊鏈在我們每天的交易中

所扮演的三個角色。

where blockchains can play a role.

We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with,

我們面對的不確定性，比如說 我們不知道我們在跟誰交易、

not having visibility into a transaction

交易過程中沒有透明性、

and not having recourse if things go wrong.

如果出問題無處補救。

So let's take the first example, not knowing who we're dealing with.

那麽我們來先談談第一個， 不知道跟誰交易。

Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.

比如說我想在 eBay 上買一個 二手的智慧型手機。

The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.

我要做的第一件事就是 確認我是要跟誰買，

Are they a power user?

他們是能力很強的用戶嗎？

Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?

別人對其評語及給分好嗎？ 還是說他們根本沒有基本資料可查？

Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:

評語、給分、查核標誌：

these are the attestations about our identities

這些是我們今天

that we cobble together today

拼湊對方身份的證據，

and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.

這些資訊可以用來降低 對方身份的不確定性。

But the problem is they're very fragmented.

但問題是這些訊息非常零碎。

Think about how many profiles you have.

想想你個人就有多少份基本資料。

Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform

區塊鏈可以讓我們 建立一個開放式的全球平台，

在其上面，可以存放

on which to store any attestation about any individual

from any source.

來自任何來源的個人資訊證明。

This allows us to create a user-controlled

因此，我們可以建立出一種用戶管控下

portable identity.

可攜帶式的身份證明。

More than a profile,

這不僅是一份普通的基本資料，

it means you can selectively reveal

因為你可以選擇性地揭露

你自己的不同屬性，

the different attributes about you

以利交易進行或者互動。

that help facilitate trade or interaction,

for instance that a government issued you an ID,

例如，想證明有政府發給的身份證，

or that you're over 21,

或者你年滿 21 歲，

by revealing the cryptographic proof

你只要揭示你的加密憑證即可，

裏面證明這些個人細節存在，且你簽章過。

that these details exist and are signed off on.

Having this kind of portable identity

有了這種介於真實與數位世界之間的

around the physical world and the digital world

便利身份證明，

我們就可以用這種全新的方式

means we can do all kinds of human trade

in a totally new way.

來做任何交易。

So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty

我已經闡述完區塊鏈可以幫助我們

在交易上減少不確定性。

in who we're dealing with.

接下來，第二個我們經常遇到的不確定性，

The second uncertainty that we often face

is just not having transparency into our interactions.

就是互動不夠透明。

Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.

比如說，你要郵寄智慧型手機給我，

I want some degree of transparency.

但我想要有一定程度的透明度。

我想知道我買的東西跟 寄到郵箱裏的是否同一個東西，

I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail

and that there's some record for how it got to me.

以及這個東西是如何 送到我手上的相關記錄。

This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,

不只寄送智慧型手機等電子產品如此，

but for many kinds of goods and data,

寄送任何貨物或資料也適用，

things like medicine, luxury goods,

像是藥物、奢侈品，

任何我們不想被 掉包的資料或產品都可以。

any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.

The problem in many companies,

很多公司都會有這樣的問題，

特別像是生產智慧型手機 這樣複雜東西的公司，

especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,

is they're managing all of these different vendors

他們在管理不同供應商時，

橫跨整個水平供應鏈 經常出現類似的問題。

across a horizontal supply chain.

All of these people that go into making a product,

投入一項產品製造的所有相關人等，

they don't have the same database.

他們沒有同一份資料庫。

They don't use the same infrastructure,

他們不用同一套基礎資料架構，

and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.

所以過程中很難透明看到 一項產品如何隨時間演化。

Using the blockchain, we can create

運用區塊鏈，我們可以在 無信任的個體之間，

a shared reality across nontrusting entities.

創造出一個共享的真相。

By this I mean

我的意思是，

all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other

這個網路上的每個節點， 彼此間都不需要互相認識

or trust each other,

或信任對方，

because they each have the ability

因為他們彼此都有能力

to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.

可以去監控、確認他們自己的供應鏈。

再回頭看看維基，

Think back to Wikipedia.

It's a shared database,

它是個共享的資料庫，

雖然它同時有許多讀者

and even though it has multiple readers

and multiple writers at the same time,

及許多作者，

it has one single truth.

但真相只有一個。

So we can create that using blockchains.

所以我們可以運用區塊鏈 來創造類似的環境。

We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly

我們可以在不用中心化管理授權的情況下，

without actually creating that central authority.

創造一個去中心化資料庫， 其效能和集中壟斷相同。

So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,

因此，所有廠商、公司 在彼此不信任的狀況下，

can interact using the same database without trusting one another.

能運用相同的資料庫做互動，

It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.

對消費者而言，我們就有更多的 產品資訊透明度。

As a real-world object travels along,

當真實世界的東西在運送時，

we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,

我們就可以在區塊鏈上 看到其數位憑證或符號作移動變化，

隨其變動添加記錄值。

adding value as it goes.

This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.

就能見度而言，這是個全新的境界。

So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity

所以，我已經談完區塊鏈 可以如何降低身份的不確定性，

and how they change what we mean about transparency

以及如何改變供應鏈中

in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.

遠距離及複雜交易的透明度。

The last uncertainty that we often face

最後一個不確定性就是我們經常面臨，

is one of the most open-ended, and it's reneging.

卻最難處理的違約問題。

What if you don't send me the smartphone?

你要是沒把手機寄給我，怎麼辦？

Can I get my money back?

我能拿回我的錢嗎？

Blockchains allow us to write code,

區塊鏈可以讓我們在上面編碼、

binding contracts,

綁定合約、

between individuals

來約束彼此，

and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out

並確保雙方的合約不需要

without a third party enforcer.

第三方的強制執行就能履行。

So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.

所以，以智慧型手機當例子， 你可以把交易想成是有信託付款的。

You are financing that phone,

你信託付款購買手機，

but you don't need to release the funds

在你尚未確認所有條件都符合

until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.

並拿到手機前，

你不須同意把錢匯給對方。

You got the phone.

I think this is one of the most exciting ways

我認為這是區塊鏈 在降低不確定性方面

that blockchains lower our uncertainties,

最令人興奮的地方，

because it means to some degree

這意味著，在某種程度上

we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.

我們可以瓦解機構及其強制力需求了，

It means a lot of human economic activity

這也意味著有更多的人類經濟活動

can get collateralized and automated,

可在擔保抵押下自動執行，

and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,

而將一大堆人為干擾因素局限在最外圍，

the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.

當資訊從真實世界進入區塊鏈後就不受干擾。

I think what would probably floor Douglass North

我想這項科技的運用

about this use of technology

讓道格拉斯．諾斯感到驚訝的地方，

is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,

應該就是區塊鏈技術真的辦到了，

the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,

而讓區塊鏈維持安全且易確證的原因

is our mutual distrust.

就是我們彼此的不信任。

So rather than all of our uncertainties

所以，並不須利用原本

slowing us down

讓我們的交易慢下來的

and requiring institutions

那些制度，

like banks, our governments, our corporations,

像是銀行、政府、公司，

we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty

我們已經可以駕馭這些不確定性，

and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.

並運用區塊鏈來促進 更多，更快，更公開的合作及交換。

Now, I don't want you to get the impression

我不是要各位產生錯誤印象，

that the blockchain is the solution to everything,

以為區塊鏈可以解決所有事情。

even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty,

甚至還有媒體說，區塊鏈可以終結貧窮，

it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem

也可以解決假藥的問題，

and potentially save the rainforest.

甚至可能解救雨林。

The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,

事實上，這項技術還在其嬰兒期，

and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place

我們還須觀察許多實驗的進行結果，

and probably fail

有些也許失敗，

before we truly understand all of the use cases

這樣才能真正了解其所有適用的

for our economy.

經濟情況。

But there are tons of people working on this,

許多人正努力研究區塊鏈，

from financial institutions

包括金融機構，

科技公司，初創企業，大學等。

to technology companies, start-ups and universities.

其中一個原因是 它不只帶來經濟上的進化，

And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.

它也帶來電腦科學上的創新。

It's also an innovation in computer science.

Blockchains give us the technological capability

區塊鏈讓我們擁有技術能力，

of creating a record of human exchange,

可以記錄人類交易、

of exchange of currency,

貨幣交換，

of all kinds of digital and physical assets,

各種數位、實體資產

even of our own personal attributes,

甚至我們的個人屬性

以全新方式進行記錄。

in a totally new way.

So in some ways,

所以，某些方面，

區塊鏈變成一種

they become a technological institution

擁有很多好處的科技機制，

that has a lot of the benefits

of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society,

取代了我們傳統社會上常用的制度，

but it does this in a decentralized way.

但卻是用去中心化的方式達成。

It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties

它把我們很多的不確定性

into certainties.

轉化成確定性。

So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,

所以我認為我們自己要開始準備了，

because we are about to face a world

因為我們即將面對一個新世界

where distributed, autonomous institutions

其中，分散式、自主式的機制

have quite a significant role.

扮演了相當重要的角色。

Thank you.

感謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.

BG：謝謝妳，貝蒂娜。

I think I understood that it's coming,

我想我已經了解 這樣的世界即將到來，

it offers a lot of potential,

它提供了很多潛在的機會，

and it's complex.

但也很複雜。

What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?

你可否估算一下目前 區塊鏈的使用率？

貝蒂娜．沃伯格： 我想這是一個很好的問題。

Bettina Warburg: I think that's a really good question.

My lab is pretty much focused

我的實驗室著重在

on going the enterprise and government route first,

先往企業及政府推廣的道路上，

because in reality, blockchain is a complex technology.

因為實際上，區塊鏈 是一個相當複雜的技術。

How many of you actually understand how the internet works?

在座有多少人是真正懂得 網際網路如何運作的？

但你每天都在用網路。

But you use it every day,

so I think we're sort of facing the same John Sculley idea

我想，我們正面臨約翰．史考利 （前蘋果公司執行長）所說的狀況，

of technology should either be invisible or beautiful,

他說，科技最好潛身讓人看不見， 不然就是要讓人覺得很美，

and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now,

可惜，目前區塊鏈似乎這兩樣都不具備，

所以它比較適合初期採用者

so it's better suited for either really early adopters

既了解它，也知道如何修改它，

who kind of get it and can tinker around

or for finding those best use cases

或者想從中找到最佳適用情境的人，

like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts

像是企業或政府這種層級

that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.

需要身份識別，資產追蹤，或智慧型合約的用戶。

BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.

BG：謝謝妳，謝謝妳來 TED 演講。

貝蒂娜：謝謝。

BW: Thanks.

(Applause)

（掌聲）