You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

Jednog zimskog jutra, pre par godina,

I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa,

vozio sam se na posao u Johanesburgu u Južnoj Africi

and noticed a haze hanging over the city.

i primetio maglu iznad grada.

I make that drive on most days,

Vozim se tim putem skoro svakodnevno,

so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before.

tako da je bilo neobično što nisam to ranije primetio.

Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline,

Johanesburg je poznat po prepoznatljivom prizoru zgrada na horizontu

which I could barely see that morning.

koji sam jedva mogao videti tog jutra.

It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud

Ubrzo sam shvatio da sam gledao

u ogroman oblak zagađenog vazduha.

of air pollution.

The contrast between the scenic environment I knew

Kontrast između lepe okoline koju sam poznavao

and this smog-covered skyline

i ovog horizonta prekrivenog maglom

stirred up something within me.

uzburkao je nešto u meni.

I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets

Bio sam užasnut mogućnošću da ovaj grad sa jarkim i živopisnim zalascima sunca

being overrun by a dull haze.

prekrije tmurna izmaglica.

At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it,

Tog trenutka sam osetio potrebu da uradim nešto u vezi sa time,

but I didn't know what.

ali nisam znao šta.

All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.

Jedino sam znao da ne mogu samo da mirno stojim po strani.

The main challenge was,

Glavni problem je bio

I didn't know much about environmental science

to što nisam znao mnogo toga o ekologiji,

air-quality management

upravljanju kvalitetom vazduha,

or atmospheric chemistry.

niti o hemiji atmosfere.

I am a computer engineer,

Ja sam računarski inženjer i bio sam prilično siguran

and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.

da ne mogu da programiram rešenje problema zagađenosti vazduha.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Who was I to do anything about this issue?

Ko sam ja da nešto preduzmem u vezi sa ovim problemom?

I was but a citizen.

Samo običan građanin.

In the following years, I learned a very important lesson,

Predstojećih godina sam naučio veoma važnu lekciju,

a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future.

lekciju koju svi treba da usvojimo ako hoćemo da radimo na boljoj budućnosti.

Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain,

Čak i ako niste stručnjak u određenoj oblasti,

your outside expertise may hold the key

u vašoj nepovezanoj stručnosti može biti ključ

to solving big problems within that domain.

rešavanja velikih problema u okviru date oblasti.

Sometimes the unique perspective you have

Ponekad iz vaše jedinstvene perspektive

can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle,

može proisteći neuobičajeno razmišljanje koje može biti od značaja,

but you need to be bold enough to try.

ali morate biti dovoljno smeli da to pokušate.

That's the only way you'll ever know.

To je jedini način da saznate.

What I knew back then

Ono što sam tada znao je da,

was that if I was even going to try to make a difference,

ako hoću da uopšte probam da donesem promenu,

I had to get smart about air pollution first,

moram da se najpre upoznam sa zagađivanjem vazduha,

and so I became a student again.

pa sam tako ponovo postao učenik.

I did a bit of basic research

Sproveo sam malo osnovnog istraživanja

and soon learned that air pollution

i ubrzo sam saznao da je zagađenje vazduha

is the world's biggest environmental health risk.

najveći rizik po zdravlje životne sredine u svetu.

Data from the World Health Organization

Podaci Svetske zdravstvene organizacije

shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012

pokazuju da se 2012. godine skoro 14 odsto svih smrtnih slučajeva u svetu

were attributable to household and ambient air pollution,

moglo pripisati zagađenosti vazduha u domaćinstvu ili okolini,

with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

pri čemu je to najzastupljenije u zemljama sa niskim i srednjim dohotkom.

Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year

Samo zagađenost vazduha sredine izaziva više smrtnih slučajeva svake godine

than malaria and HIV/AIDS.

od malarije i side.

In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation

U Africi su prerane smrti zbog neodgovarajuće higijene

or childhood malnutrition

i neuhranjenosti u detinjstvu

pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution,

ništa u odnosu na smrti usled zagađenosti vazduha,

and it comes at a huge economic cost:

a uz to ide i ogromna ekonomska cena:

over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,

preko 400 milijarde američkih dolara od 2013. godine

according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

prema istraživanju Organizacije za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj.

Now, in my work,

U svom radu

I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence,

istražujem novine u oblasti veštačke inteligencije,

where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine

gde simbiotska veza između čoveka i mašine

can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions.

može uspostaviti korisne osnove i pomoći nam da donosimo bolje odluke.

As I thought about the air pollution problem,

Dok sam razmišljao o problemu zagađivanja vazduha,

it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions

postalo mi je jasno da je potrebno da nađemo način da donosimo bolje odluke

about how we manage air pollution,

o tome kako kontrolišemo zagađivanje vazduha,

and given the scale of the problem,

a imajući u vidu razmere problema,

it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way.

neophodno je da to uradimo uz saradnju.

So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field.

Zato sam rešio da treba da se upoznam sa ljudima koji rade u ovoj oblasti.

I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg

Počeo sam da razgovaram sa zvaničnicima grada Johanesburga

and other surrounding cities,

i drugih okolnih gradova,

and I engaged the local scientific community,

angažovao sam lokalnu naučnu zajednicu,

and I also made a few cold calls.

a inicirao sam i nekoliko poziva.

The process of engagement I embarked upon

Proces pozivanja na akciju u koji sam se upustio

helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem.

pomogao mi je da razvijem dublje razumevanje problema.

It also helped me to avoid the trap

Takođe mi je pomogao da izbegnem zamku

people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate,

u koju ponekad upadaju ljudi iz moje profesije

kada pokušavaju da unose novine,

where we are quick to apply a technology

pri čemu brzo primenjujemo tehnologiju

before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.

pre nego što smo zaista spoznali problem koji je pred nama.

I began to develop an idea

Počeo sam da razvijam ideju

about what I could do to improve the situation.

o tome šta mogu da uradim da poboljšam situaciju.

I started by simply asking myself

Počeo sam jednostavno se zapitavši

how I could bring together in some meaningful way

kako mogu da na neki smisleni način spojim

my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence

svoje veštine iz softverskog inženjeringa i veštačke inteligencije

and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to.

sa stručnošću ljudi kojima sam se obraćao.

I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform

Hteo sam napravim onlajn platformu za upravljanje kvalitetom vazduha

that would uncover trends in pollution

koja bi pokazala tendencije u zagađivanju

and project into the future

i pravila predviđanja za budućnost

to determine what outcomes can be expected.

da bi se ustanovilo kakvi ishodi se mogu očekivati.

I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution,

Bio sam rešen da vidim kako moja ideja prerasta u praktično rešenje,

but I faced uncertainty

ali sam naišao na neizvesnost

and had no guarantee of success.

i nisam imao garancije za uspeh.

What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills,

Imao sam veoma specifičan skup inženjerskih veština

skills I'd acquired over my career

koje sam stekao tokom svoje karijere,

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem

koje su bile novina za ljude

koji su godinama radili na problemu zagađivanja vazduha.

for so many years.

What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective,

Shvatio sam da ponekad samo jedna nova perspektiva,

one new skill set,

jedan novi skup veština,

can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen.

može stvoriti uslove da se desi nešto izuzetno.

Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light,

Snaga naše volje i naša mašta su vodilje

enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.

koje nam omogućavaju da ucrtamo nove putanje

i nađemo put kroz prepreke.

Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem,

Naoružani boljim razumevanjem problema zagađivanja vazduha

and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data

i pošto smo uspeli da prikupimo podatke tokom čitave jedne decenije

on air pollutant levels

o nivoima prisutnosti zagađivača vazduha

and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg,

i meteorološkim uslovima za Johanesburg i okolinu,

my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself

moje kolege iz Južne Afrike i Kine i ja

created an air-quality decision support system

smo stvorili sistem podrške za donošenje odluka o kvalitetu vazduha

that lives in the cloud.

koji je smešten u oblaku.

This software system analyzes historical and real-time data

Ovaj softverski sistem analizira prošle i aktuelne podatke

to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution.

da bi otkrio tendencije zagađivanja u prostoru i vremenu.

We then used new machine learning technology

Zatim smo upotrebili novu tehnologiju mašinskog učenja

to predict future levels of pollution

da bismo predvideli buduće nivoe zagađivanja

for several different pollutants days in advance.

za više različitih zagađivača danima unapred.

This means that citizens can make better decisions

Ovo znači da građani mogu donositi bolje odluke

about their daily movements

o svojim kretanjima tokom dana

and about where to settle their families.

i o tome gde da nastane svoje porodice.

We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time,

Možemo da unapred predvidimo slučajeve zagađivanja,

identify heavy polluters,

da identifikujemo teške zagađivače,

and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities

a nadležni organi im mogu narediti

to scale back their operations.

da umanje svoje delovanje.

Through assisted scenario planning,

Kroz pomoćno planiranje scenarija,

city planners can also make better decisions

urbanisti takođe mogu donositi bolje odluke

about how to extend infrastructure,

o tome kako proširiti infrastrukturu

such as human settlements or industrial zones.

kao što su ljudska naselja ili industrijske zone.

We completed a pilot of our technology

Završili smo probu naše tehnologije

that was run over a period of 120 days,

sprovedenu tokom perioda od 120 dana,

covering all of South Africa.

koja je pokrila celu Južnu Afriku.

Our results were confirmed

Naši rezultati su potvrđeni

when we demonstrated a tight correlation

kada smo pokazali usku korelaciju

between the forecasting data

između podataka predviđanja

and the data we were getting on the ground.

i podataka koje smo dobijali na terenu.

Through our leadership,

Kroz naše liderstvo

we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets

doneli smo savremena, vodeća sredstva u svetu

that can perform air-quality forecasting

koja mogu sprovesti prognozu kvaliteta vazduha

at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy,

uz neviđenu rezoluciju i preciznost,

benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago,

što je od koristi gradu u koji sam se dovezao

jednog zimskog jutra ne tako davno i pomislio:

and thought to myself,

"Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"

„Nešto ovde nije u redu. Pitam se šta se može preduzeti.“

So here is the point:

Evo u čemu je poenta.

What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further?

Šta da nisam više istražio problem zagađivanja vazduha?

What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment

Šta da nisam pokazao zabrinutost za stanje životne sredine

and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter?

i nadao se da neko negde radi na tom problemu?

What I have learned is that,

Uvideo sam da,

when embarking on a challenging endeavor

kada krenemo na težak poduhvat

that advances a cause that we firmly believe in,

kojim se unapređuje misija u koju čvrsto verujemo,

it is important to focus on the possibility of success

važno je fokusirati se na mogućnost uspeha

and consider the consequence of not acting.

i razmotriti posledice nepreduzimanja akcije.

We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition,

Ne treba da nas ometaju otpor i suprotstavljanje,

but this should motivate us further.

već treba da nas dodatno motivišu.

So wherever you are in the world,

Dakle, gde god da se nalazite u svetu,

the next time you find

sledeći put kada vidite

that there's some natural curiosity you have

da postoji neka vaša prirodna radoznalost

that is being piqued,

koja je podstaknuta

and it's about something you care about,

i radi se o nečemu do čega vam je stalo,

and you have some crazy or bold ideas,

a imate neke lude ili smele ideje

and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise,

i možda je izvan vaše stručne oblasti,

ask yourself this:

zapitajte se:

Why not?

zašto da ne?

Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem

Zašto ne krenuti i pozabaviti se problemom

as best as you can, in your own way?

što bolje možete, na svoj način?

You may be pleasantly surprised.

Možda se prijatno iznenadite.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)