You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe

Prevoditelj: Tana Morić Recezent: Sanda L

One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

Jednog zimskog jutra prije nekoliko godina

I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa,

vozio sam se na posao u Johannesburg, Južnoafrička Republika,

and noticed a haze hanging over the city.

i zamijetio maglu nad gradom.

I make that drive on most days,

Vozim se onuda gotovo svakoga dana

so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before.

pa je bilo neobično da to ranije nisam zamijetio.

Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline,

Johannesburg ima prepoznatljiv izgled na horizontu

which I could barely see that morning.

koji sam toga jutra jedva razaznavao.

It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud

Ubrzo sam shvatio da je preda mnom ogroman oblak

of air pollution.

onečišćenoga zraka.

The contrast between the scenic environment I knew

Suprotnost između lijepog krajolika kojeg sam poznavao

and this smog-covered skyline

i ovoga horizonta prekrivenog smogom,

stirred up something within me.

izazvala je u meni vrtlog dojmova.

I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets

Zaprepastila me mogućnost da ovaj grad sjajnih i jasnih zalazaka sunca

being overrun by a dull haze.

bude prekriven gustom maglom.

At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it,

Toga sam trena osjetio potrebu da nešto poduzmem u vezi s time,

but I didn't know what.

ali nisam znao što.

All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.

Znao sam jedino to da ne mogu sjediti skrštenih ruku.

The main challenge was,

Glavni izazov bio je taj

I didn't know much about environmental science

da nisam mnogo znao o znanosti o okolišu,

air-quality management

upravljanju kvalitetom zraka

or atmospheric chemistry.

ili atmosferskoj kemiji.

I am a computer engineer,

Ja sam računalni inženjer

and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.

i bio sam prilično siguran da ne mogu naći kôd za izlaz iz ovog ekološkog problema.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Who was I to do anything about this issue?

Tko sam ja uopće da bih učinio išta po ovom pitanju?

I was but a citizen.

Bio sam običan građanin.

In the following years, I learned a very important lesson,

Tijekom narednih godina naučio sam vrlo važnu lekciju,

a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future.

lekciju koju svi moramo uzeti srcu ako želimo graditi bolju budućnost.

Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain,

Čak i ako niste stručnjak u određenom području,

your outside expertise may hold the key

vaša stručnost iz drugih područja može biti ključna

to solving big problems within that domain.

za rješavanje velikih problema u tom području.

Sometimes the unique perspective you have

Ponekad, vaše jedinstveno viđenje stvari

can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle,

može rezultirati nekonvencionalnim razmišljanjem koje će potaknuti promjenu,

but you need to be bold enough to try.

ali treba imati dovoljno hrabrosti i pokušati.

That's the only way you'll ever know.

Jedino ćete tako znati.

What I knew back then

U to sam vrijeme znao da,

was that if I was even going to try to make a difference,

ako želim makar pokušati promijeniti stvari,

I had to get smart about air pollution first,

moram prvo steći znanje o onečišćenju zraka.

and so I became a student again.

I tako sam ponovno postao student.

I did a bit of basic research

Proučio sam osnove

and soon learned that air pollution

i ubrzo spoznao da je onečišćenje zraka

is the world's biggest environmental health risk.

najveći ekološki zdravstveni rizik na svijetu.

Data from the World Health Organization

Podaci Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije

shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012

pokazuju da je gotovo 14 posto svih smrtnih slučajeva u svijetu u 2012.

were attributable to household and ambient air pollution,

uzrokovano onečišćenjem zraka u zatvorenim i otvorenim prostorima,

with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

najviše u zemljama niskih i srednjih prihoda.

Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year

Samo onečišćenje zraka na otvorenom uzrokuje više smrtnih slučajeva godišnje

than malaria and HIV/AIDS.

nego malarija i HIV/AIDS zajedno.

In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation

U Africi, preuranjene smrti uslijed nedovoljno sigurnih zdravstvenih mjera

or childhood malnutrition

ili pothranjenosti djece

pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution,

blijede u usporedbi sa smrtima uzrokovanim onečišćenjem zraka,

and it comes at a huge economic cost:

uz što ide i ogroman gospodarski trošak:

over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,

preko 400 milijardi US dolara od 2013.,

according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

prema istraživanju Organizacije za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj.

Now, in my work,

U svome radu

I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence,

istražujem nove granice umjetne inteligencije,

where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine

pri čemu simbiotski odnos između čovjeka i stroja

can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions.

može pronaći djelotvorno uporište i pomoći nam donositi bolje odluke.

As I thought about the air pollution problem,

Razmišljajući o problemu onečišćenja zraka,

it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions

postalo mi je jasno da trebamo pronaći način kako donositi bolje odluke

about how we manage air pollution,

o načinima rješavanja onečišćenja zraka,

and given the scale of the problem,

i, obzirom na veličinu problema,

it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way.

bila je nužna suradnja po tom pitanju.

So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field.

Tako sam odlučio bolje upoznati neke ljude koji rade u tom području.

I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg

Počeo sam razgovarati sa službenicima Grada Johannesburga

and other surrounding cities,

i drugih okolnih gradova

and I engaged the local scientific community,

te sam uključio lokalnu znanstvenu zajednicu,

and I also made a few cold calls.

a uputio sam i nekoliko nenajavljenih poziva.

The process of engagement I embarked upon

Aktivnosti u koje sam se upustio po ovom pitanju,

helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem.

pomogle su mi dublje razumjeti problem.

It also helped me to avoid the trap

Pomogle su mi i izbjeći zamku,

people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate,

u koju ponekad upadaju ljudi iz moje profesije pri pokušaju inovacija,

where we are quick to apply a technology

kada brzamo s primjenom neke tehnologije,

before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.

prije nego temeljito sagledamo problem.

I began to develop an idea

Počeo sam razvijati ideju

about what I could do to improve the situation.

o tome kako unaprijediti situaciju.

I started by simply asking myself

Počeo sam tako da sam se zapitao

how I could bring together in some meaningful way

kako bih mogao smisleno povezati

my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence

svoje vještine programiranja softvera i umjetne inteligencije,

and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to.

sa stručnošću ljudi koje sam kontaktirao.

I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform

Želio sam stvoriti online platformu za upravljanje kvalitetom zraka,

that would uncover trends in pollution

koja bi otkrivala trendove onečišćenja

and project into the future

i predviđala buduća kretanja

to determine what outcomes can be expected.

radi određivanja očekivanih ishoda.

I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution,

Bio sam odlučan u tome da se moja ideja provede u praktično rješenje,

but I faced uncertainty

ali sve je izgledalo nesigurno

and had no guarantee of success.

i ništa nije jamčilo uspjeh.

What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills,

Raspolagao sam vrlo određenim skupom inženjerskih vještina,

skills I'd acquired over my career

vještina stečenih tijekom karijere,

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem

koje su bile novost ljudima koji su problem onečišćenja zraka rješavali

for so many years.

tolike godine.

What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective,

Shvatio sam tada da ponekad samo jedno novo viđenje stvari,

one new skill set,

jedan novi skup vještina,

can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen.

može stvoriti prave uvjete da se dogodi nešto značajno.

Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light,

Snaga naše volje i mašte su svjetlo koje nas vodi,

enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.

omogućujući nam ucrtavanje novih puteva i prelaženje prepreka.

Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem,

Bolje shvativši problem onečišćenja zraka

and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data

i uz prikupljene podatke o razinama zagađenja zraka

on air pollutant levels

više od desetljeća unazad

and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg,

te o meteorološkim uvjetima u i oko Johannesburga,

my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself

moje kolege iz JAR-a i Kine i ja

created an air-quality decision support system

stvorili smo sustav podrške odlučivanju o kvaliteti zraka

that lives in the cloud.

koji se nalazi u oblaku.

This software system analyzes historical and real-time data

Ovaj softverski sustav analizira prošle podatke i one u realnom vremenu

to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution.

radi otkrivanja prostorno-vremenskih trendova zagađenja.

We then used new machine learning technology

Zatim smo upotrijebili novu tehnologiju strojnog učenja,

to predict future levels of pollution

kako bismo predvidjeli buduće razine onečišćenja

for several different pollutants days in advance.

za nekoliko različitih zagađivača danima unaprijed.

This means that citizens can make better decisions

To znači da građani mogu donositi bolje odluke

about their daily movements

o svom dnevnom kretanju

and about where to settle their families.

i o tome gdje će se naseliti s obiteljima.

We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time,

Možemo predvidjeti štetna onečišćenja,

identify heavy polluters,

prepoznati teške zagađivače,

and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities

kojima mjerodavne vlasti mogu naložiti

to scale back their operations.

da smanje svoje djelatnosti.

Through assisted scenario planning,

Putem potpomognutog predviđanja scenarija

city planners can also make better decisions

i urbanisti mogu donositi bolje odluke

about how to extend infrastructure,

o tome kako proširiti infrastrukturu,

such as human settlements or industrial zones.

poput stambenih jedinica ili industrijskih zona.

We completed a pilot of our technology

Testirali smo svoju tehnologiju kroz pilot-istraživanje

that was run over a period of 120 days,

koje je trajalo 120 dana,

covering all of South Africa.

pokrivajući cijelu Južnoafričku Republiku.

Our results were confirmed

Rezultate je potvrdila

when we demonstrated a tight correlation

snažna korelacija koju smo utvrdili

between the forecasting data

između podataka iz prognoze

and the data we were getting on the ground.

i podataka prikupljenih na tlu.

Through our leadership,

Kroz naše smo vodstvo

we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets

stvorili najsuvremenije sredstvo, vodeće u svijetu,

that can perform air-quality forecasting

za predviđanje kvalitete zraka

at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy,

do sada nezabilježene razlučivosti i točnosti,

benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago,

koristeći gradu prema kojem sam se vozio jednog zimskog jutra, ne tako davno

and thought to myself,

i mislio si,

"Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"

"Nešto je ovdje pogrešno. Pitam se što se može učiniti?"

So here is the point:

Dakle, ovo je bit:

What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further?

Što bi bilo da nisam dalje istraživao problem onečišćenja zraka?

What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment

Što da nisam pokazao brigu za stanje okoliša

and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter?

i da sam se samo nadao da se netko, negdje, brine o rješavanju tog pitanja?

What I have learned is that,

Naučio sam da,

when embarking on a challenging endeavor

kada se upuštamo u izazovan poduhvat

that advances a cause that we firmly believe in,

koji služi svrsi u koju čvrsto vjerujemo,

it is important to focus on the possibility of success

važno je biti usredotočen na mogućnost uspjeha

and consider the consequence of not acting.

i razmotriti posljedice nepoduzimanja.

We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition,

Ne bi nas smjeli omesti otpor i neslaganje,

but this should motivate us further.

već bi nas dodatno trebali motivirati.

So wherever you are in the world,

Gdje god da se nalazite u svijetu,

the next time you find

sljedeći put kada prepoznate

that there's some natural curiosity you have

da je nešto u vama izazvalo

that is being piqued,

vašu prirodnu znatiželju,

and it's about something you care about,

a radi se o nečemu do čega vam je stalo,

and you have some crazy or bold ideas,

i imate neke lude ili smjele ideje,

and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise,

i, po mogućnosti, radi se o području izvan vaše ekspertize,

ask yourself this:

zapitajte se sljedeće:

Why not?

Zašto ne?

Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem

Zašto jednostavno ne krenuti u rješavanje problema

as best as you can, in your own way?

najbolje što znate, na svoj vlastiti način?

You may be pleasantly surprised.

Mogli biste se ugodno iznenaditi.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)