You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe

翻译人员: GGrace Bai 校对人员: Danyang Luo

One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

几年前的一个冬天早晨，

I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa,

在南非约翰内斯堡，我开车去上班时

and noticed a haze hanging over the city.

发现城市被雾霾笼罩。

I make that drive on most days,

我几乎每天都会开车经过那儿，

so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before.

但这次很不寻常， 以前我从没见过这样的景象。

Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline,

约翰内斯堡以它别具特色的 美丽天际线闻名，

which I could barely see that morning.

但那天早上却几乎看不到。

It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud

很快我意识到，我看到的正是 由空气污染引起的

of air pollution.

严重的雾霾。

The contrast between the scenic environment I knew

我旧日所熟知的那个 优美环境与此刻雾霾笼罩的

and this smog-covered skyline

天际线之间的对比，

stirred up something within me.

在我心里翻涌不息。

I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets

我担心很有可能 曾经色彩多变的日落美景

being overrun by a dull haze.

将被阴暗的雾霾所吞噬。

At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it,

在那一刻，我感到一阵强烈的冲动， 想要去做些什么，

but I didn't know what.

但我并不知道该做些什么。

All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.

我所知道的只是 我不能就这样袖手旁观。

The main challenge was,

最大的挑战在于，

I didn't know much about environmental science

我并不了解环境科学。

air-quality management

空气质量管理，

or atmospheric chemistry.

或是大气化学。

I am a computer engineer,

我是一名电脑工程师，

and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.

而且我非常确定，我并不能 靠编码来解决大气污染问题。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Who was I to do anything about this issue?

我将以什么身份来解决这个问题？

I was but a citizen.

我不过是个市井小民。

In the following years, I learned a very important lesson,

在接下来的几年里， 我学到了很重要的一课，

a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future.

如果我们想要实现更好的未来， 我们都应该把这一课铭记在心。

Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain,

即使你并非某一特殊领域的专家，

your outside expertise may hold the key

你的专业技能也可能蕴含了

to solving big problems within that domain.

解决那一领域问题的方法。

Sometimes the unique perspective you have

有时候，你所持有的独特视角

can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle,

可以激发出非常规的 思维从而左右局势，

but you need to be bold enough to try.

但你需要大胆去尝试。

That's the only way you'll ever know.

唯有如此你才能够知晓结果。

What I knew back then

当时我所知道的是，

was that if I was even going to try to make a difference,

如果我想要尝试去改变，

I had to get smart about air pollution first,

我必须先对污染有足够了解，

and so I became a student again.

所以我又做回了一名学生。

I did a bit of basic research

我做了一些基础研究，

and soon learned that air pollution

很快了解到大气污染

is the world's biggest environmental health risk.

是世界上最大的环境健康风险。

Data from the World Health Organization

世界卫生组织的数据显示

shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012

在2012年，全世界 几乎14%的死亡事件

were attributable to household and ambient air pollution,

都是由家庭及周边的 大气污染造成，

with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

在中低端收入国家尤为常见。

Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year

大气污染每年所造成的 死亡率要高于

than malaria and HIV/AIDS.

疟疾和艾滋病。

In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation

在非洲，不安全的 卫生条件造成的早逝，

or childhood malnutrition

或孩童的营养不良造成的死亡，

pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution,

在大气污染面前显得苍白无力，

and it comes at a huge economic cost:

同时它还带来了巨大的经济成本：

over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,

据经济合作与发展组织统计，

according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

2013年有关方面的支出 超过了4000亿美元。

Now, in my work,

在我的工作中，

I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence,

我探寻着人工智能的 科技前沿成果，

where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine

包括人类和机器的共生关系，

can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions.

找到有益的立足点 并帮我们做出更好的决定。

As I thought about the air pollution problem,

当我再想到大气污染问题时，

it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions

就如何治理大气污染这一问题， 事情变得明朗起来，

about how we manage air pollution,

我们需要寻找更好的方法 做出更好的决定

and given the scale of the problem,

考虑到问题很庞大，

it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way.

协同合作是非常有必要的。

So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field.

所以我决定去认识一些 在这一领域工作的人。

I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg

我开始与约翰内斯堡

and other surrounding cities,

以及其他周边城市的官员对话，

and I engaged the local scientific community,

我也加入了本地的科学社区，

and I also made a few cold calls.

我还打了一些电话给 完全陌生却相关的人们。

The process of engagement I embarked upon

我着手介入的这些经历

helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem.

帮助我更深刻地了解了这一问题。

It also helped me to avoid the trap

也帮助我避免了 我这一行的人尝试创新时

people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate,

有时会掉进的陷阱：

where we are quick to apply a technology

在尚未真正掌握问题之前，

before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.

快速采用一项技术。

I began to develop an idea

我开始思考，

about what I could do to improve the situation.

我能做些什么来改善这种状况？

I started by simply asking myself

我开始问我自己，

how I could bring together in some meaningful way

该如何有效融合

my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence

我在软件工程和人工智能 方面的知识技能

and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to.

以及我所联系的人们的专业技能。

I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform

我想要创建一个 在线空气质量管理平台，

that would uncover trends in pollution

去揭示今后的污染趋势，

and project into the future

进行相关预测

to determine what outcomes can be expected.

来判断可能会发生的结果。

I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution,

我确信我的想法 能够成为一个现实的解决之道，

but I faced uncertainty

但也面临着不确定性，

and had no guarantee of success.

我并不能保证它一定成功。

What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills,

我所拥有的就是一套 特定的工程师技能而已，

skills I'd acquired over my career

从我的工作中所获得的技能。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem

当然，对于多年来一直在 大气污染领域工作的人而言，

for so many years.

我的技能是全新的。

What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective,

我逐渐意识到，有时候 一个新颖的视角，

one new skill set,

一个新的技能组合，

can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen.

可以催生一些卓越的事情。

Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light,

我们的意志力和想象力 是一盏指示灯，

enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.

指示我们越过阻碍，开启新篇章。

Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem,

我对大气污染问题 进行了更深入的了解，

and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data

寻找到过去十几年的

on air pollutant levels

大气污染数据，

and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg,

以及约翰内斯堡及周边的气象数据。

my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself

之后，我同南非和中国的同事一起

created an air-quality decision support system

创建了空气质量决议支持系统，

that lives in the cloud.

并将其上传到了云端。

This software system analyzes historical and real-time data

这个软件能够分析历史和实时数据

to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution.

来揭示污染随时间和空间变化的趋势。

We then used new machine learning technology

我们随后用新机器学习技术

to predict future levels of pollution

提前数日

for several different pollutants days in advance.

预测未来污染情况。

This means that citizens can make better decisions

这意味着居民可以 就他们的每日行程

about their daily movements

以及和家人在哪里定居，

and about where to settle their families.

做出更好的决定。

We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time,

我们可以提前预知不利的污染事件，

identify heavy polluters,

界定重度污染源，

and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities

使得相关权威机构可以下指令

to scale back their operations.

来调整他们的经营活动。

Through assisted scenario planning,

通过辅助情景规划，

city planners can also make better decisions

就如何拓展基础设施工作，

about how to extend infrastructure,

如工业区的居住安置，

such as human settlements or industrial zones.

城市规划者也可以做出更好的决定。

We completed a pilot of our technology

我们已经建立了 该技术的一个先行试点，

that was run over a period of 120 days,

运行了120天，

covering all of South Africa.

覆盖了整个南非。

Our results were confirmed

我们的预期结果得到了验证。

when we demonstrated a tight correlation

我们展示出的

between the forecasting data

预测数据

and the data we were getting on the ground.

和我们实地采集的数据 表现出了紧密的相关性。

Through our leadership,

通过我们的管理层，

we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets

我们引入了世界领先的尖端仪器

that can perform air-quality forecasting

预测大气质量，

at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy,

其解析度和正确率都是前所未见的，

让不久前的冬日早晨 我所驶入的城市能够受惠。

benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago,

and thought to myself,

那时我对自己说，

"Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"

“有些东西不对， 我得想办法做些什么。"

So here is the point:

所以，重点在于：

What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further?

如果当初我没有深入调研 大气污染的问题呢？

What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment

如果我没有关注国家的环境状况

and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter?

而是寄希望于某些地方、 其他的某些人来管这些事呢？

What I have learned is that,

我从中学到的是，

when embarking on a challenging endeavor

当全力推进一项

that advances a cause that we firmly believe in,

我们都深信不疑的事业时，

it is important to focus on the possibility of success

关注成功的可能性

and consider the consequence of not acting.

并考虑不作为的后果非常重要。

We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition,

我们不应该为反对和阻力分心，

but this should motivate us further.

它应该激励我们走得更远。

So wherever you are in the world,

所以无论你在世界上哪一个地方，

the next time you find

下一次，当你发现

that there's some natural curiosity you have

你天生的某种好奇心

that is being piqued,

被激起，

and it's about something you care about,

而它也事关你所在意之事，

and you have some crazy or bold ideas,

你有一些疯狂或勇敢的想法，

and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise,

即使这并非你的专业领域，

ask yourself this:

问问自己：

Why not?

为何不试试呢？

Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem

为什么不勇往直前来解决问题？

as best as you can, in your own way?

尽最大努力，以你自己的方式？

You may be pleasantly surprised.

你或许会得到意外之喜。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）