You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Guoqing Yang

One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

幾年前的一個冬天早晨，

I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa,

我開車去上班，地點是 南非的約翰尼斯堡，

and noticed a haze hanging over the city.

我注意到全市籠罩在霧霾中。

I make that drive on most days,

我幾乎天天會駛過那條路，

so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before.

但以前都沒注意到這現象， 這點很不尋常。

Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline,

約翰尼斯堡以特別的天際線聞名，

which I could barely see that morning.

那天早上卻幾乎看不見。

It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud

沒多久，我就意會過來了， 原來我看到的是一大片

of air pollution.

空氣污染。

The contrast between the scenic environment I knew

我所知道的景色和這被煙霧遮蓋的

and this smog-covered skyline

天際線之間有明顯對比，

stirred up something within me.

讓我內心產生起伏。

I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets

我擔心很有可能， 這個有著鮮明生動日落的城市

being overrun by a dull haze.

會被晦暗的霧霾壟照。

At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it,

那時，我有個衝動，想要做點什麼，

but I didn't know what.

但我不知道該做什麼。

All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.

我只知道，我不能袖手旁觀。

The main challenge was,

主要的難處在於，

I didn't know much about environmental science

我不太了解環境科學、

air-quality management

空氣品質管理，

or atmospheric chemistry.

或大氣化學。

I am a computer engineer,

我是電腦工程師，

and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.

我很確定，空氣污染問題 不能靠寫程式解決。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Who was I to do anything about this issue?

我算哪根蔥， 能為這個議題做出貢獻？

I was but a citizen.

我不過是個市井小民。

In the following years, I learned a very important lesson,

接下來幾年，我學到了 很重要的一課，

a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future.

若想要努力朝更好的未來邁進， 我們都應該把這一課銘記在心。

Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain,

即使你不是特定領域的專家，

your outside expertise may hold the key

你在外面的專長有可能反而是

to solving big problems within that domain.

在該領域中解決重大問題的關鍵。

Sometimes the unique perspective you have

有時，你獨有的觀點，

can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle,

會帶來不一樣的非慣例思考， 進而左右局勢，

but you need to be bold enough to try.

但你得要有膽識去嘗試。

That's the only way you'll ever know.

那是唯一能知道結果的方式。

What I knew back then

那時，我知道的是，

was that if I was even going to try to make a difference,

如果我要去嘗試造成改變，

I had to get smart about air pollution first,

我得先要對空氣污染有多一點知識，

and so I became a student again.

所以，我又回去當學生了。

I did a bit of basic research

我做了一點基本的研究，

and soon learned that air pollution

很快就發現，空氣污染

is the world's biggest environmental health risk.

是世界上最大的環境健康風險。

Data from the World Health Organization

來自世界衛生組織的資料顯示

shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012

2012 年全世界 所有的死亡中，有近 14%

were attributable to household and ambient air pollution,

都是因為家庭及環境的 空氣污染所造成，

with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

大多數都發生在中低收入的國家。

Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year

每年，單單是環境空氣 污染所造成的死亡數

than malaria and HIV/AIDS.

就超過瘧疾和愛滋病。

In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation

在非洲，因為衛生不夠安全

or childhood malnutrition

或兒時營養不良造成的過早死亡，

pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution,

完全比不上空氣污染造成的死亡，

and it comes at a huge economic cost:

且這背後的經濟成本代價非常大：

over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,

2013 年就超過四千億美元，

according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

這數據來自經濟合作暨 發展組織的研究報告。

Now, in my work,

在我的工作中，

I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence,

我要為人工智慧去探索新境界，

where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine

要讓人類和機器之間的共生關係

can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions.

能夠找到有益的立足點， 並協助我們做更好的決策。

As I thought about the air pollution problem,

當我在思考空氣污染問題時，

it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions

我發現我們需要找到 一種比較好的決策方法，

about how we manage air pollution,

來決定我們要如何管理空氣污染，

and given the scale of the problem,

且問題的規模既然這麼大，

it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way.

勢必得要用協同合作的方式來進行。

So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field.

所以，我決定，我最好能認識 一些在那個領域中工作的人。

I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg

我開始跟約翰尼斯堡

and other surrounding cities,

以及周圍其他城市的官員交流，

and I engaged the local scientific community,

我也去參加當地的科學社區，

and I also made a few cold calls.

我也打了一些推銷電話。

The process of engagement I embarked upon

我所參與的這個過程，

helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem.

協助我發展出對這個問題 更深一層的了解。

It also helped me to avoid the trap

它也協助我避開我這一行的人

people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate,

在試圖創新時常會落入的陷阱，

where we are quick to apply a technology

我們會很快就應用一種技術，

before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.

卻還沒有對手上的問題 有完全的了解。

I began to develop an idea

我開始萌生出一個點子，

about what I could do to improve the situation.

我想出了我能做什麼 來改善這個情況。

I started by simply asking myself

一開始，我只是問我自己，

how I could bring together in some meaningful way

我要如何用某種有意義的方式，

my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence

把我在軟體工程和人工智慧的技能，

and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to.

和我去接觸的人的專長做結合。

I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform

我想要創建一個線上的 空氣品質管理平台，

that would uncover trends in pollution

它能夠發現污染中的趨勢，

and project into the future

用來做未來預測，

to determine what outcomes can be expected.

來判斷可能會發生的結果。

I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution,

我很堅決要讓我的想法 變成實際的解決方案，

but I faced uncertainty

但我要面對不確定性，

and had no guarantee of success.

且無法保證一定會成功。

What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills,

我擁有的，是非常 特別的一組工程技能，

skills I'd acquired over my career

在我的職涯中取得的技能，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem

對於多年來都在處理 空氣污染問題的那些人，

for so many years.

我的技能是全新的。

What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective,

我漸漸了解，有時候， 只要有一個新鮮的觀點，

one new skill set,

一組新的技能，

can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen.

就可以改變條件， 讓很了不起的事情能夠發生。

Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light,

我們的意志力和想像力 是引導我們的光，

enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.

讓我們能在地圖上畫出新路徑， 引導我們穿過障礙。

Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem,

在對於空氣污染問題 有更紮實的了解之後，

and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data

且找到辦法取得了超過十年的資料，

on air pollutant levels

上面記錄約翰尼斯堡及其周圍地區 空氣污染程度和氣象條件，

and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg,

my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself

我和南非及中國的同事一起

created an air-quality decision support system

創建了一個空氣品質決策支援系統，

that lives in the cloud.

放在雲端。

This software system analyzes historical and real-time data

這項軟體系統能分析 歷史資料和即時資料，

to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution.

找出在污染中的 「空間—時間」趨勢。

We then used new machine learning technology

接著，我們採用新的機器學習技術，

to predict future levels of pollution

來預測未來的污染程度，

for several different pollutants days in advance.

能針對好幾種污染物， 在幾天前就做出預測。

This means that citizens can make better decisions

這意味著，市民能做出更好的決策，

about their daily movements

決定他們每天的活動，

and about where to settle their families.

決定要將家人安置在何處。

We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time,

我們能夠事先預測有害的污染事件，

identify heavy polluters,

辨識出嚴重的污染源，

and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities

如此一來，相關當權機關就可以下令

to scale back their operations.

要求它們重新調整營運。

Through assisted scenario planning,

透過協助性質的情境規劃，

city planners can also make better decisions

都市計畫員也能做出更好的決策，

about how to extend infrastructure,

決定如何將基礎建設做延伸，

such as human settlements or industrial zones.

比如人類住區或工業區。

We completed a pilot of our technology

我們已經完成了這項技術的測試版，

that was run over a period of 120 days,

執行了 120 天，

covering all of South Africa.

含蓋了整個南非。

Our results were confirmed

我們的結果得到了確認，

when we demonstrated a tight correlation

因為我們得以呈現出在預測資料

between the forecasting data

和我們從地面取得的實際資料

and the data we were getting on the ground.

之間有著密切的相關性。

Through our leadership,

透過我們的領導，

we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets

我們帶來了引領世界的尖端資產，

that can perform air-quality forecasting

能進行空氣品質預測，

at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy,

解析度和正確率都是前所未見的，

benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago,

讓我不久之前在冬天早晨 開車進入的那個城市能夠受惠，

and thought to myself,

那時我還心想：

"Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"

「這裡出了某種問題。 不知道我能做什麼？」

So here is the point:

所以，重點是，

What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further?

若我當初沒有進一步調查 空氣污染的問題，會如何？

What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment

若我當初沒有去關心環境狀況，

and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter?

而只是希望某個地方的某個人 會把事情處理好，會如何？

What I have learned is that,

我所學到的是，

when embarking on a challenging endeavor

當要著手進行一項很有挑戰性

that advances a cause that we firmly believe in,

且能夠推動我們堅信之理念的嘗試時，

it is important to focus on the possibility of success

重要的是要把焦點放在 成功的可能性上，

and consider the consequence of not acting.

並去思考不採取行動會有什麼後果。

We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition,

我們不應被抗拒和反對給分心，

but this should motivate us further.

這反而應該會更進一步激勵我們。

So wherever you are in the world,

所以，不論你在世界的哪個角落，

the next time you find

下一次，當你發現

that there's some natural curiosity you have

你天生的某種好奇心被激起時，

that is being piqued,

and it's about something you care about,

且它和你在乎的事物有關，

and you have some crazy or bold ideas,

且你有某種瘋狂或大膽的點子，

and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise,

也許它超出了你的專業領域，

ask yourself this:

記得，問問自己這個問題：

Why not?

為什麼不？

Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem

為什麼不用你自己的方式，

as best as you can, in your own way?

盡你所能，放手一搏 去處理那個問題？

You may be pleasantly surprised.

你可能會得到很棒的驚喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）