Joel Selanikio: The surprising seeds of a big-data revolution in healthcare

61,578 views ・ 2013-07-02

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Dejan Vicai
Postoji jedna stara šala o policajcu koji šeta u patroli
00:13
There's an old joke about a cop
0
13063
1515
00:14
who's walking his beat in the middle of the night,
1
14602
2357
tokom noći
00:16
and he comes across a guy under a street lamp
2
16983
2103
i susreće lika ispod ulične lampe
koji gleda na zemlju i pomera se levo-desno
00:19
who's looking at the ground and moving from side to side,
3
19110
2691
00:21
and the cop asks him what he's doing.
4
21825
1777
i policajac ga pita šta radi.
00:23
The guys says he's looking for his keys.
5
23626
1934
Čovek kaže da traži svoje ključeve.
00:25
So the cop takes his time
6
25584
1439
Policajac ostaje s njim i odmerava teren,
00:27
and looks over and kind of makes a little matrix
7
27047
2270
obilazi krug i traži neka dva, tri minuta.
00:29
and looks for about two, three minutes.
8
29341
2205
Nema ključeva.
00:31
No keys.
9
31570
1151
00:32
The cop says, "Are you sure?
10
32745
2372
Policajac pita: "Jesi li siguran? Hej, druže,
jesi li siguran da si ode izgubio ključeve?"
00:35
Hey buddy, are you sure you lost your keys here?"
11
35141
2309
00:37
And the guy says, "No, actually I lost them
12
37474
2032
I lik odgovara: "Ne, ne, u stvari izgubio sam ih
00:39
down at the other end of the street,
13
39530
1726
tamo na drugom kraju ulice,
ali je svetlo ovde bolje."
00:41
but the light is better here."
14
41280
1445
00:42
(Laughter)
15
42749
2625
(Smeh)
00:46
There's a concept that people talk about nowadays called "big data."
16
46167
3243
Postoji jedan koncept o kome ljudi danas govore,
"veliki podaci", a ono o čemu govore
00:49
And what they're talking about is all of the information
17
49434
2643
jeste skup podataka koji stvaramo
00:52
that we're generating through our interaction
18
52101
2151
putem naše interakcije sa i preko interneta,
00:54
with and over the Internet,
19
54276
1303
00:55
everything from Facebook and Twitter
20
55603
1760
sve od Fejsbuka i Tvitera
do skidanja muzike, filmova, prenosa i tih stvari,
00:57
to music downloads, movies, streaming, all this kind of stuff,
21
57387
3633
01:01
the live streaming of TED.
22
61044
1462
živi prenos TED govora.
01:02
And the folks who work with big data, for them,
23
62919
2684
Ljudi koji rade sa "velikim podacima"
01:05
they talk about that their biggest problem
24
65627
2004
kažu da je njihov najveći problem to
01:07
is we have so much information.
25
67655
1747
što postoji toliko informacija,
01:09
The biggest problem is: how do we organize all that information?
26
69426
3377
najveći problem je, kako organizovati sve te informacije?
Radeći u sferi globalnog zdravlja, mogu vam reći
01:13
I can tell you that, working in global health,
27
73272
2160
01:15
that is not our biggest problem.
28
75456
2284
da to nije naš najveći problem.
01:18
Because for us, even though the light is better on the Internet,
29
78232
3184
Jer nama, iako je svetlo
bolje na internetu,
01:22
the data that would help us solve the problems we're trying to solve
30
82989
3366
podaci koji bi nam pomogli da rešimo probleme
koje pokušavamo da rešimo, nisu u stvari prisutni na internetu.
01:26
is not actually present on the Internet.
31
86379
2149
01:28
So we don't know, for example,
32
88552
1445
I zato ne znamo, na primer, koliko ljudi
01:30
how many people right now are being affected by disasters
33
90021
3291
se upravo sada suočava sa nekom katastrofom
ili se nalazi u konfliktnoj situaciji.
01:33
or by conflict situations.
34
93336
1969
01:35
We don't know for, really, basically, any of the clinics
35
95329
3719
Ne znamo, u suštini, ni za jednu od klinika
01:39
in the developing world,
36
99072
1150
u svetu u razvoju, koje od njih imaju lekove,
01:40
which ones have medicines and which ones don't.
37
100246
2455
a koje ih nemaju.
01:42
We have no idea of what the supply chain is for those clinics.
38
102725
3374
Nemamo predstavu kakav lanac nabavki imaju te klinike.
Ne znamo - i ovo mi je zaista zapanjujuće -
01:46
We don't know -- and this is really amazing to me -- we don't know
39
106123
3698
ne znamo koliko dece je rođeno
01:49
how many children were born -- or how many children there are --
40
109845
3770
ili koliko dece ima u Boliviji
01:53
in Bolivia or Botswana or Bhutan.
41
113639
3408
ili Bocvani ili u Butanu.
Ne znamo koliko dece je umrlo prošle nedelje
01:58
We don't know how many kids died last week
42
118047
2041
u bilo kojoj od tih država.
02:00
in any of those countries.
43
120112
1246
02:01
We don't know the needs of the elderly, the mentally ill.
44
121382
3047
Ne znamo potrebe starijih, mentalno obolelih.
02:04
For all of these different critically important problems
45
124453
3215
O svim ovim različitim problemima od ključnog značaja
02:07
or critically important areas that we want to solve problems in,
46
127692
3300
ili oblastima ključnog značaja u kojima želimo da rešimo probleme,
mi ne znamo skoro ništa.
02:11
we basically know nothing at all.
47
131016
2266
02:15
And part of the reason why we don't know anything at all
48
135834
2652
Deo razloga zašto ne znamo ništa
02:18
is that the information technology systems that we use in global health
49
138510
4179
jeste to da su sistemi informacionih tehnologija
koje koristimo u globalnom zdravlju za prikupljanje podataka
02:22
to find the data to solve these problems is what you see here.
50
142713
4413
za rešavanje ovih problema ono što vidite ovde.
02:27
This is about a 5,000-year-old technology.
51
147150
2234
Ovo je tehnologija stara 5.000 godina.
02:29
Some of you may have used it before.
52
149408
1732
Neki od vas su je možda već koristili ranije.
02:31
It's kind of on its way out now,
53
151164
1539
Polako je napuštamo, ali se ona i dalje koristi
02:32
but we still use it for 99 percent of our stuff.
54
152727
2439
za 99 odsto stvari koje radimo.
02:35
This is a paper form.
55
155190
2490
Ovo je papirni formular, a ono što vidite
02:38
And what you're looking at is a paper form
56
158010
2033
jeste formular u rukama sestre Ministarstva zdravlja
02:40
in the hand of a Ministry of Health nurse in Indonesia,
57
160067
3179
u Indoneziji koja peške obilazi sela
02:43
who is tramping out across the countryside
58
163270
2240
02:45
in Indonesia on, I'm sure, a very hot and humid day,
59
165534
3651
u Indoneziji po, verujem, veoma toplom i vlažnom danu
02:49
and she is going to be knocking on thousands of doors
60
169209
2682
i ona će kucati na hiljade vrata
02:51
over a period of weeks or months,
61
171915
2079
tokom nedelja i meseci,
kucaće na vrata i govoriti: "Izvinite,
02:54
knocking on the doors and saying,
62
174018
1597
02:55
"Excuse me, we'd like to ask you some questions.
63
175639
2878
voleli bismo da vam postavimo neka pitanja.
02:58
Do you have any children? Were your children vaccinated?"
64
178541
3205
Imate li dece? Da li su vaša deca vakcinisana?"
03:02
Because the only way we can actually find out
65
182223
2135
Zato što je jedini način na koji možemo da saznamo
03:04
how many children were vaccinated in the country of Indonesia,
66
184382
2935
koliko dece je vakcinisano u Indoneziji,
koji procenat je vakcinisan, u stvari nije
03:07
what percentage were vaccinated,
67
187341
1557
03:08
is actually not on the Internet, but by going out and knocking on doors,
68
188922
4128
internet, nego obilaženje i kucanje na vrata,
ponekad na desetine hiljada vrata.
03:13
sometimes tens of thousands of doors.
69
193074
2214
03:15
Sometimes it takes months to even years to do something like this.
70
195312
3998
Ponekad su potrebni meseci pa čak i godine
da bi se ovako nešto uradilo.
03:19
You know, a census of Indonesia
71
199334
2117
Znate, popis u Indoneziji
03:21
would probably take two years to accomplish.
72
201475
2094
bi najverovatnije trajao dve godine.
03:23
And the problem, of course, with all of this
73
203593
2072
Problem sa svime ovime je, naravno,
03:25
is that, with all those paper forms --
74
205689
1897
da sa svim tim papirnim formularima - i kažem vam
03:27
and I'm telling you, we have paper forms for every possible thing:
75
207610
3119
imamo formulare za svaku moguću stvar.
03:30
We have paper forms for vaccination surveys.
76
210753
2064
Imamo upitnike za vakcinaciju.
03:32
We have paper forms to track people who come into clinics.
77
212841
3161
Imamo formulare za praćenje ljudi koji posete klinike.
03:36
We have paper forms to track drug supplies, blood supplies --
78
216026
4042
Imamo formulare za praćenje snabdevanja lekovima,
krvlju, a sve ovo su različiti formulari
03:40
all these different paper forms for many different topics,
79
220092
3234
za mnogo različitih oblasti
03:43
they all have a single, common endpoint,
80
223350
2316
i svi oni završavaju na istom mestu,
03:45
and the common endpoint looks something like this.
81
225690
2619
a to mesto izgleda otprilike ovako.
03:48
And what we're looking at here is a truckful of data.
82
228333
3333
Ono što vidimo ovde je kombi pun podataka.
Ovo su upitnici sa jednog ispitivanja dometa vakcinacije
03:53
This is the data from a single vaccination coverage survey
83
233261
3865
03:57
in a single district in the country of Zambia
84
237150
2191
u jednom jedinom okrugu u Zambiji
03:59
from a few years ago, that I participated in.
85
239365
2290
od pre nekoliko godina gde sam i ja učestvovao.
04:01
The only thing anyone was trying to find out
86
241679
2347
Jedina stvar koju je neko pokušavao da otkrije
04:04
is what percentage of Zambian children are vaccinated,
87
244050
3253
jeste koji procenat dece u Zambiji je vakcinisan
04:07
and this is the data, collected on paper over weeks,
88
247327
3254
i ovo su podaci skupljeni na papiru tokom nedelja
04:10
from a single district,
89
250605
1183
iz jednog jedinog okruga, što je nešto poput rejona
04:11
which is something like a county in the United States.
90
251812
2675
u SAD.
04:14
You can imagine that, for the entire country of Zambia,
91
254511
2675
Možete da zamislite, da bi odgovori čitave Zambije
04:17
answering just that single question ...
92
257210
2293
na samo to jedno pitanje
04:20
looks something like this.
93
260615
1330
izgledali nekako ovako.
Kamioni i kamioni
04:23
Truck after truck after truck,
94
263072
2040
ispunjeni gomilama podataka.
04:25
filled with stack after stack after stack of data.
95
265136
2913
04:28
And what makes it even worse is that's just the beginning.
96
268430
3212
Ono što ovo čini još gorim
jeste da je ovo tek početak,
04:31
Because once you've collected all that data,
97
271666
2094
jer kad jednom skupite sve te podatke,
04:33
of course, someone -- some unfortunate person --
98
273784
2540
naravno, neko će morati -
neka nesrećna osoba će morati da unese sve to u računar.
04:36
is going to have to type that into a computer.
99
276348
2215
04:38
When I was a graduate student,
100
278587
1452
Tokom postdiplomskih studija, ja sam u stvari
04:40
I actually was that unfortunate person sometimes.
101
280063
2459
ponekad bio ta nesrećna osoba.
04:42
I can tell you, I often wasn't really paying attention.
102
282546
3015
Mogu vam reći da često nisam zaista obraćao pažnju.
04:45
I probably made a lot of mistakes when I did it
103
285585
2267
I verovatno sam u procesu načinio mnog grešaka
04:47
that no one ever discovered, so data quality goes down.
104
287876
2620
koje niko nikada nije otkrio i s time se kvalitet podataka smanjuje.
04:50
But eventually that data, hopefully, gets typed into a computer,
105
290520
3020
Ali se na kraju, idealno, ti podaci unose u računar
04:53
and someone can begin to analyze it,
106
293564
1731
i neko započinje analizu
04:55
and once they have an analysis and a report,
107
295319
2872
i kada su analiza i izveštaj gotovi
nadamo se da možemo da te podatke
04:58
hopefully, then you can take the results of that data collection
108
298215
3024
05:01
and use it to vaccinate children better.
109
301263
1967
iskoristimo da unapredimo vakcinaciju dece.
05:03
Because if there's anything worse in the field of global public health --
110
303254
5541
Jer ako je nešto gore
u sferi globalnog javnog zdravlja,
05:08
I don't know what's worse than allowing children on this planet
111
308819
2982
ne znam šta bi bilo gore, nego dozvoliti da deca na ovoj planeti
05:11
to die of vaccine-preventable diseases --
112
311825
2116
umru od bolesti koje se mogu sprečiti vakcinacijom,
05:14
diseases for which the vaccine costs a dollar.
113
314679
2698
bolesti za koje vakcina košta jedan dolar.
05:17
And millions of children die of these diseases every year.
114
317835
3352
A milioni dece umiru od ovih bolesti svake godine.
Činjenica je da su ti milioni gruba procena,
05:21
And the fact is, millions is a gross estimate,
115
321211
2974
05:24
because we don't really know how many kids die each year of this.
116
324209
3214
jer ne znamo zaista koliko dece umire zbog ovoga svake godine.
05:27
What makes it even more frustrating is that the data-entry part,
117
327730
3499
Ono što je još više frustrirajuće jeste
što deo unosa podataka, deo koji sam ja radio kao diplomac,
05:31
the part that I used to do as a grad student,
118
331253
2190
može ponekad da traje šest meseci.
05:33
can take sometimes six months.
119
333467
1458
05:34
Sometimes it can take two years to type that information into a computer,
120
334949
3452
Ponekad unos informacija u računar
traje dve godine i, ponekad, ne retko, u stvari,
05:38
And sometimes, actually not infrequently,
121
338425
2110
05:40
it actually never happens.
122
340559
1828
on se ni ne desi.
05:42
Now try and wrap your head around that for a second.
123
342411
2476
Pokušajte da sagledate to sada.
05:44
You just had teams of hundreds of people.
124
344911
2175
Timovi od stotina ljudi
05:47
They went out into the field to answer a particular question.
125
347110
2903
su izašli na teren da bi pronašli odgovor na jedno pitanje.
Potrošili ste najverovatnije stotine hiljada dolara
05:50
You probably spent hundreds of thousands of dollars
126
350037
2396
05:52
on fuel and photocopying and per diem.
127
352457
3036
na benzin i fotokopije dnevno
i onda iz nekog razloga trenutak je prošao
05:56
And then for some reason, momentum is lost
128
356072
2044
05:58
or there's no money left,
129
358140
1393
ili nema više novca
05:59
and all of that comes to nothing,
130
359557
2337
i sve to se svodi na ništa,
06:01
because no one actually types it into the computer at all.
131
361918
2723
jer niko u stvari neće uneti te podatke u računar.
06:04
The process just stops.
132
364665
1176
I proces naprosto stane. To se stalno dešava.
06:05
Happens all the time.
133
365865
1924
06:07
This is what we base our decisions on in global health:
134
367813
3115
Ovo je ono na čemu baziramo odluke u globalnom zdravlju:
06:10
little data, old data, no data.
135
370952
3417
na malo podataka, starim podacima ili nikakvim podacima.
06:15
So back in 1995,
136
375924
1453
1995. počeo sam da razmišljam o načinima
06:17
I began to think about ways in which we could improve this process.
137
377401
3240
na koje bismo mogli da poboljšamo ovaj proces.
06:20
Now 1995 -- obviously, that was quite a long time ago.
138
380665
2668
1995. je očigledno bila davno.
06:23
It kind of frightens me to think of how long ago that was.
139
383357
2978
Pomalo me plaši da pomislim koliko davno.
Film godine je bio
06:26
The top movie of the year was "Die Hard with a Vengeance."
140
386359
2738
"Umri muški sa osvetom".
Kao što vidite, Brus Vilis je tada imao mnogo više kose.
06:29
As you can see, Bruce Willis had a lot more hair back then.
141
389121
2817
06:31
I was working in the Centers for Disease Control
142
391962
2665
Radio sam u Centrima za kontrolu bolesti
06:34
and I had a lot more hair back then as well.
143
394651
2179
i takođe sam tada imao mnogo više kose.
06:37
But to me, the most significant thing that I saw in 1995
144
397505
2944
Za mene, najbitnija stvar koju sam video 1995.
06:40
was this.
145
400473
1218
je bila ovo.
Pomalo je teško zamisliti, ali 1995.
06:42
Hard for us to imagine, but in 1995,
146
402151
2393
06:44
this was the ultimate elite mobile device.
147
404568
3115
ovo je bio vrhunski elitni mobilni uređaj.
06:48
It wasn't an iPhone. It wasn't a Galaxy phone.
148
408286
2556
Nije bio Ajfon. Nije bio Galaksi.
06:50
It was a PalmPilot.
149
410866
1364
Bio je to Palm Pajlot.
06:52
And when I saw the PalmPilot for the first time, I thought,
150
412254
3528
Kada sam video Palm Pajlot po prvi put, pomislio sam,
06:55
"Why can't we put the forms on these PalmPilots?
151
415806
2397
zašto ne možemo da stavimo formulare na ove uređaje
06:58
And go out into the field just carrying one PalmPilot,
152
418758
2620
i izađemo na teren noseći samo njih
i oni imaju kapacitet desetina hiljada papirnih formulara?
07:01
which can hold the capacity of tens of thousands of paper forms?
153
421402
3765
Zašto ne pokušamo da uradimo to?
07:05
Why don't we try to do that?
154
425191
1427
07:06
Because if we can do that,
155
426642
1263
Jer ako možemo da uradimo to, ako možemo
07:07
if we can actually just collect the data electronically, digitally,
156
427929
3809
da podatke prikupimo elektronski, digitalno
07:11
from the very beginning,
157
431762
1657
od samog početka
07:13
we can just put a shortcut right through that whole process
158
433443
3276
to bi bila prečica kroz čitav proces
07:16
of typing, of having somebody type that stuff into the computer.
159
436743
4992
kucanja
zapošljavanja nekog da ukucava te stvari u računar.
07:21
We can skip straight to the analysis
160
441759
1840
Možemo odmah da krenemo sa analizom
07:23
and then straight to the use of the data to actually save lives."
161
443623
3139
i onda na upotrebu podataka kako bismo u stvari spasili živote.
07:26
So that's what I began to do.
162
446786
2587
To je ono što sam ja i počeo da radim.
07:29
Working at CDC, I began to travel to different programs around the world
163
449397
4349
Radeći u Centrima, počeo sam da putujem
širom sveta i obučavam ljude da koriste Palm Pajlote
07:33
and to train them in using PalmPilots to do data collection,
164
453770
4142
za prikupljanje podataka umesto papira.
07:37
instead of using paper.
165
457936
1378
07:39
And it actually worked great.
166
459338
1888
I to je u stvari fenomenalno radilo.
07:41
It worked exactly as well as anybody would have predicted.
167
461250
3052
Radilo je upravo onako kako bi bilo ko predvideo.
Ko bi rekao? Digitalno prikupljanje podataka
07:44
What do you know?
168
464326
1157
07:45
Digital data collection is actually more efficient than collecting on paper.
169
465507
3612
je u stvari efikasnije od prikupljanja na papiru.
Dok sam to radio, moj poslovni partner, Rouz,
07:49
While I was doing it, my business partner,
170
469143
2032
koja je tu sa mužem, Metjuom, u publici,
07:51
Rose, who's here with her husband, Matthew, here in the audience,
171
471199
3079
Rouz je radila sličnu stvar za američki Crveni krst.
07:54
Rose was out doing similar stuff for the American Red Cross.
172
474302
2873
Problem nakon nekoliko godina je bio
07:57
The problem was, after a few years of doing that,
173
477199
2386
što sam uvideo da sam - bio sam na možda
07:59
I realized -- I had been to maybe six or seven programs --
174
479609
3897
šest ili sedam programa i mislio sam
08:03
and I thought, you know, if I keep this up at this pace,
175
483530
3261
ako nastavim ovim tempom
08:06
over my whole career,
176
486815
1151
tokom moje čitave karijere, otići ću
08:07
maybe I'm going to go to maybe 20 or 30 programs.
177
487990
2679
na možda 20 ili 30 programa.
08:10
But the problem is, 20 or 30 programs,
178
490693
3143
Problem je što je 20 ili 30 programa,
08:13
like, training 20 or 30 programs to use this technology,
179
493860
2950
obuka na 20 ili 30 programa za korišćenje ove tehnologije
08:16
that is a tiny drop in the bucket.
180
496834
2166
mala kap u okeanu.
Potražnja, potreba za boljim programima
08:19
The demand for this, the need for data to run better programs
181
499024
3940
08:22
just within health -- not to mention all of the other fields
182
502988
2858
samo unutar zdravlja, da ne spominjem sve ostale oblasti
08:25
in developing countries -- is enormous.
183
505870
1996
u zemljama u razvoju, je ogromna.
08:27
There are millions and millions and millions of programs,
184
507890
3986
Postoje milioni i milioni programa,
08:31
millions of clinics that need to track drugs,
185
511900
2568
milioni klinika kojima je potrebno da pronađu lekove,
08:34
millions of vaccine programs.
186
514492
1404
milioni programa vakcinacije.
08:35
There are schools that need to track attendance.
187
515920
2261
Školama je potrebno da prate prisustvo.
Sve ove razne stvari
08:38
There are all these different things for us to get the data that we need to do.
188
518205
3906
su nam potrebne da prikupimo podatke.
I shvatio sam, da ako nastavim onako kako sam radio,
08:42
And I realized if I kept up the way that I was doing,
189
522135
4619
08:46
I was basically hardly going to make any impact
190
526778
3220
neću ostvariti skoro nikakav uticaj
do kraja moje karijere.
08:50
by the end of my career.
191
530022
1353
08:51
And so I began to rack my brain,
192
531756
1868
Počeo sam da razbijam glavu
08:53
trying to think about, what was the process that I was doing?
193
533648
2944
pokušavajući da shvatim
koji je bio proces kojim sam prolazio,
08:56
How was I training folks,
194
536616
1282
kako sam obučavao ljude i gde su uska grla
08:57
and what were the bottlenecks and what were the obstacles
195
537922
3174
i šta su prepreke da bi sve išlo brže
09:01
to doing it faster and to doing it more efficiently?
196
541120
2695
i da bi bilo efikasnije?
09:03
And, unfortunately, after thinking about this for some time,
197
543839
2836
Nesrećom, nakon što sam razmišljao o ovome neko vreme
09:06
I identified the main obstacle.
198
546699
3171
ustanovio sam glavnu prepreku.
09:10
And the main obstacle, it turned out --
199
550475
1921
I glavna prepreka, kako se ispostavilo,
09:12
and this is a sad realization --
200
552420
1588
i ovo je tužno uviđanje,
glavna prepreka sam bio ja.
09:14
the main obstacle was me.
201
554032
1713
09:16
So what do I mean by that?
202
556229
1429
Šta mislim pod tim?
09:18
I had developed a process
203
558538
1716
Razvio sam proces u kome
09:20
whereby I was the center of the universe of this technology.
204
560278
4367
sam ja bio centar univerzuma ove tehnologije.
Ako ste želeli da koristite ovu tehnologiju,
09:26
If you wanted to use this technology, you had to get in touch with me.
205
566304
3323
morali ste mene da kontaktirate.
09:29
That means you had to know I existed.
206
569651
1824
To znači da ste morali da znate da ja postojim.
09:31
Then you had to find the money to pay for me to fly out to your country
207
571499
3413
Onda ste morali da skupite novac kako biste mi platili
09:34
and the money to pay for my hotel and my per diem and my daily rate.
208
574936
3595
let do vaše države i novac za hotel
i moje dnevne troškove i dnevnice.
09:38
So you could be talking about 10- or 20- or 30,000 dollars,
209
578555
2999
To je moglo biti oko 10 ili 20 ili 30 hiljada dolara
09:41
if I actually had the time or it fit my schedule
210
581578
2294
ako sam imao vremena u rasporedu
09:43
and I wasn't on vacation.
211
583896
1349
ili nisam bio na odmoru.
09:45
The point is that anything,
212
585594
1961
Poenta je da bilo šta, bilo koji sistem koji zavisi
09:47
any system that depends on a single human being
213
587579
2363
od jednog jedinog čoveka ili dva ili tri ili petoro ljudi
09:49
or two or three or five human beings --
214
589966
1903
09:51
it just doesn't scale.
215
591893
1653
ne može da se proširi.
09:53
And this is a problem for which we need to scale this technology,
216
593570
3199
A ovo je problem za koji nam je potrebno proširenje
ove tehnologije i moramo da je proširimo sada.
09:56
and we need to scale it now.
217
596793
1570
09:58
And so I began to think of ways in which I could basically
218
598387
2754
Počeo sam da razmišljam o načinima na koje bih
mogao sebe da izdvojim iz slike.
10:01
take myself out of the picture.
219
601165
2588
Znate, mislio sam
10:06
And, you know, I was thinking,
220
606071
1644
10:07
"How could I take myself out of the picture?"
221
607739
2104
kako bih mogao sebe da izdvojim
10:09
for quite some time.
222
609867
1619
poprilično dugo.
10:11
I'd been trained that the way you distribute technology
223
611510
3476
Znate, bio sam naučen da je način
distribuiranja tehnologije u internacionalnom razvoju
10:15
within international development
224
615010
1556
10:16
is always consultant-based.
225
616590
1562
uvek zasnovan na konsultantima.
10:18
It's always guys that look pretty much like me,
226
618176
3001
To su uvek momci koji izgledaju kao ja
10:21
flying from countries that look pretty much like this
227
621201
2548
i lete od država koje izgledaju ovako
10:23
to other countries with people with darker skin.
228
623773
2339
do drugih država sa ljudima tamnije kože.
10:26
And you go out there, and you spend money on airfare
229
626769
2462
I vi idete tamo i trošite novac na letove
10:29
and you spend time and you spend per diem
230
629255
3236
i trošite vreme i imate dnevne troškove
10:32
and you spend for a hotel and all that stuff.
231
632515
2349
i trošite na hotel i trošite sve te stvari.
10:34
As far as I knew, that was the only way you could distribute technology,
232
634888
3412
Koliko sam ja znao, to je bio jedini način
za distribuiranje tehnologije i nisam mogao da pronađem zaobilaznicu.
10:38
and I couldn't figure out a way around it.
233
638324
2035
10:40
But the miracle that happened --
234
640383
1754
Ali se onda desilo čudo,
10:42
I'm going to call it Hotmail for short.
235
642851
1906
zvaću ga Hotmejl skraćeno.
10:45
You may not think of Hotmail as being miraculous,
236
645168
2423
Možda ne mislite da je Hotmejl čudesan,
10:47
but for me it was miraculous,
237
647615
1437
ali za mene je bio, jer sam primetio
10:49
because I noticed, just as I was wrestling with this problem --
238
649076
3612
dok sam se borio s ovim problemom,
10:52
I was working in sub-Saharan Africa, mostly, at the time --
239
652712
3506
radio sam u delu Afrike južno od Sahare.
10:56
I noticed that every sub-Saharan African health worker
240
656242
2565
Primetio sam da svaki radnik južno od Sahare
10:58
that I was working with had a Hotmail account.
241
658831
2944
sa kojim sam radio ima nalog na Hotmejlu.
I pomislio sam, shvatio sam,
11:03
And it struck me, "Wait a minute --
242
663389
2928
čekaj samo malo, znam da ljudi iz Hotmejla
11:06
I know the Hotmail people surely didn't fly to the Ministry of Health in Kenya
243
666341
4238
sigurno nisu doleteli do Ministartstva zdravlja u Keniji
11:10
to train people in how to use Hotmail.
244
670603
2076
da obuče ljude kako da koriste Hotmejl.
11:13
So these guys are distributing technology, getting software capacity out there,
245
673382
4248
Ovi ljudi dakle distribuiraju tehnologiju.
Dopremaju softver,
11:17
but they're not actually flying around the world.
246
677654
2328
ali ne lete širom sveta.
Moram da porazmislim o ovome.
11:20
I need to think about this more."
247
680006
1572
11:21
While I was thinking about it,
248
681602
1450
Dok sam razmišljao o tome, ljudi su počeli da koriste
11:23
people started using even more things like this, just as we were.
249
683076
3159
još stvari nalik ovoj, baš kao i mi.
11:26
They started using LinkedIn and Flickr and Gmail and Google Maps --
250
686259
3231
Počeli su da koriste Linkedin i Flikr
i Džimejl i Gugl mape, sve ove stvari.
11:29
all these things.
251
689514
1157
11:30
Of course, all of these things are cloud based
252
690695
2691
Naravno, sve ove stvari su zasnovane na "oblaku"
11:33
and don't require any training.
253
693410
2149
i ne zahtevaju obuku.
11:35
They don't require any programmers.
254
695583
1676
Ne zahtevaju programere.
11:37
They don't require consultants.
255
697283
1503
Ne zahtevaju konsultante,
11:38
Because the business model for all these businesses
256
698810
2485
jer poslovni model svih ovih kompanija
11:41
requires that something be so simple we can use it ourselves,
257
701319
2937
zahteva da stvari budu toliko jednostavne da možemo sami da ih koristimo
11:44
with little or no training.
258
704280
1294
sa malo ili bez obuke.
11:45
You just have to hear about it and go to the website.
259
705598
2595
Samo morate da čujete za njih i odete na njihov sajt.
11:48
And so I thought, what would happen if we built software
260
708217
4196
Pomislio sam, šta bi se desilo da napravimo softver
11:52
to do what I'd been consulting in?
261
712437
2064
koji će raditi ono za šta sam ja bio konsultant?
11:54
Instead of training people how to put forms onto mobile devices,
262
714525
4072
Umesto da obučavamo ljude
kako da postave formulare na mobilne uređaje,
11:58
let's create software that lets them do it themselves with no training
263
718621
3301
hajde da stvorimo softver koji im dozvoljava da to rade sami
12:01
and without me being involved.
264
721946
1436
bez obuke i bez mog uplitanja?
12:03
And that's exactly what we did.
265
723406
1484
I to je upravo ono što smo uradili.
12:04
So we created software called Magpi, which has an online form creator.
266
724914
5221
Stvorili smo softver Megpaj (Magpi)
koji služi za pravljenje onlajn formulara.
12:10
No one has to speak to me,
267
730159
1252
Niko ne mora da priča sa mnom.
12:11
you just have to hear about it and go to the website.
268
731435
2801
Morate samo da čujete za njega i odete na sajt.
12:14
You can create forms, and once you've created the forms,
269
734260
2658
Možete da pravite formulare i kada ste ih napravili
12:16
you push them to a variety of common mobile phones.
270
736942
2461
prosledite ih na razne uobičajene telefone.
12:19
Obviously, nowadays, we've moved past PalmPilots to mobile phones.
271
739427
3517
Danas smo očigledno otišli dalje od Palm Pajlota
na mobilne telefone.
12:22
And it doesn't have to be a smartphone, it can be a basic phone,
272
742968
3229
To ne mora biti "pametni" telefon.
To može biti najobičniji telefon, ovaj s desne strane,
12:26
like the phone on the right, the basic Symbian phone
273
746221
2490
znate, osnovni Simbijan telefon
12:28
that's very common in developing countries.
274
748735
2062
koji je veoma uobičajen u zemljama u razvoju.
12:30
And the great part about this is it's just like Hotmail.
275
750821
3689
Odlična strana ovoga je što je baš kao Hotmejl.
12:34
It's cloud based,
276
754534
1151
Zasnovan je na oblaku i ne zahteva nikakvu obuku,
12:35
and it doesn't require any training, programming, consultants.
277
755709
3253
programiranje, konsultante.
12:38
But there are some additional benefits as well.
278
758986
2203
Ali ima i dodatnih prednosti.
Kada smo gradili ovaj sistem, znali smo
12:41
Now we knew when we built this system,
279
761213
1873
zašto to radimo, baš kao i sa Palm Pajlotima,
12:43
the whole point of it, just like with the PalmPilots,
280
763110
2555
12:45
was that you'd be able to collect the data
281
765689
2799
to je bilo kako biste morali, mogli
da sakupljate podatke i odmah ih postavite i dobijete skup podataka.
12:48
and immediately upload the data and get your data set.
282
768512
2598
Ali ono što smo otkrili je, naravno, pošto je već na računaru,
12:51
But what we found, of course, since it's already on a computer,
283
771134
2985
da možemo da oformimo trenutačne mape i analizu i grafove.
12:54
we can deliver instant maps and analysis and graphing.
284
774143
2611
12:56
We can take a process that took two years
285
776778
2071
Proces od dve godine
12:58
and compress that down to the space of five minutes.
286
778873
3008
možemo da sabijemo u nekoliko minuta.
Neverovatan napredak u efikasnosti.
13:02
Unbelievable improvements in efficiency.
287
782222
2155
13:04
Cloud based, no training, no consultants, no me.
288
784740
3708
Zasnovan na oblaku, bez obuke, bez konsultanata, bez mene.
13:09
And I told you that in the first few years
289
789520
2271
Rekao sam vam da je u prvih nekoliko godina
13:11
of trying to do this the old-fashioned way,
290
791815
2069
pokušaja da se ovo uradi na tradicionalan način,
13:13
going out to each country,
291
793908
1279
odlaženjem u svaku državu
13:15
we probably trained about 1,000 people.
292
795211
4221
domet bio oko, ne znam,
verovatno smo obučili oko 1.000 ljudi.
13:19
What happened after we did this?
293
799871
1682
Šta se desilo nakon što smo uradili ovo?
13:21
In the second three years,
294
801577
1461
U sledeće tri godine, 14.000 ljudi
13:23
we had 14,000 people find the website,
295
803062
2150
je pronašlo vebsajt, prijavilo se i počelo da ga koristi za skupljanje podataka,
13:25
sign up and start using it to collect data:
296
805236
2113
13:27
data for disaster response,
297
807373
1910
podataka za katastrofe,
13:29
Canadian pig farmers tracking pig disease and pig herds,
298
809307
4434
kanadski stočari su ga koristili za praćenje oboljevanja i odumiranja krda,
13:33
people tracking drug supplies.
299
813765
1881
ljudi su pratili nabavku lekova.
13:36
One of my favorite examples, the IRC, International Rescue Committee,
300
816241
3344
Jedan od mojih omiljenih primera, MSS,
Međunarodna služba za spasavanje
13:39
they have a program where semi-literate midwives,
301
819609
3213
ima program u kome polu-pismene babice
13:42
using $10 mobile phones,
302
822846
2403
koristeći telefone od deset dolara
13:45
send a text message using our software, once a week,
303
825273
3301
šalju poruke, putem našeg softvera,
jednom nedeljno o broju rađanja
13:48
with the number of births and the number of deaths,
304
828598
2476
i smrti, koji službi daje
13:51
which gives IRC something that no one in global health has ever had:
305
831098
3572
nešto što niko u globalnom zdravlju do sada nije imao:
13:54
a near-real-time system of counting babies,
306
834694
3522
sistem za brojanje novorođenčadi skoro u stvarnom vremenu,
13:58
of knowing how many kids are born,
307
838240
1634
informaciju o tome koliko dece je rođeno,
13:59
of knowing how many children there are in Sierra Leone,
308
839898
2642
koliko dece postoji
u Sijera Leoneu, koja je država u kojoj se ovo dešava
14:02
which is the country where this is happening,
309
842564
2223
14:04
and knowing how many children die.
310
844811
1753
i informaciju o tome koliko dece umire.
14:07
Physicians for Human Rights --
311
847394
1573
Lekari za ljudska prava -
14:08
this is moving a little bit outside the health field --
312
848991
2592
ovo je malo van polja zdravstva -
14:11
they're basically training people to do rape exams in Congo,
313
851607
4783
skupljaju se, u suštini obučavaju ljude
da rade na slučajevima silovanja u Kongu, gde je ovo postala epidemija,
14:16
where this is an epidemic,
314
856414
1449
14:17
a horrible epidemic,
315
857887
1793
užasna epidemija,
14:19
and they're using our software to document the evidence they find,
316
859704
3176
i koriste naš softver da zabeleže
dokaze koje pronađu, uključujući fotografije,
14:22
including photographically,
317
862904
1974
14:24
so that they can bring the perpetrators to justice.
318
864902
2903
tako da mogu da privedu zločince pravdi.
14:28
Camfed, another charity based out of the UK --
319
868956
3593
Kamfed, još jedna dobrotvorna organizacija iz Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva,
14:32
Camfed pays girls' families to keep them in school.
320
872573
2713
Kamfed plaća porodicama devojčica kako bi one ostale u školi.
14:36
They understand this is the most significant intervention they can make.
321
876165
3475
Oni razumeju da je ovo najbitnija intervencija
koju mogu da učine. Pre su pratili premeštanja,
14:39
They used to track the disbursements, the attendance, the grades, on paper.
322
879664
3840
prisustvo, ocene, i to na papiru.
14:43
The turnaround time between a teacher writing down grades or attendance
323
883528
3347
Vreme obrta između nastavnika
koji zapisuje ocene ili prisustvo
14:46
and getting that into a report was about two to three years.
324
886899
2835
do stavljanja toga u izveštaj bilo je od dve do tri godine.
14:49
Now it's real time.
325
889758
1151
Sada je to u realnom vremenu, i zbog toga što je ovo tako
14:50
And because this is such a low-cost system and based in the cloud,
326
890933
3183
jeftin sistem i zasnovan na oblaku, on košta
14:54
it costs, for the entire five countries that Camfed runs this in,
327
894140
3989
za svih pet zemalja gde Kamfed ovo vodi,
sa desetinama hiljada devojaka,
14:58
with tens of thousands of girls,
328
898153
1865
ukupan trošak je 10 000 dolara godišnje.
15:00
the whole cost combined is 10,000 dollars a year.
329
900042
2708
15:03
That's less than I used to get
330
903154
1961
To je manje od onoga što bih ja dobio
da samo otputujem na dve nedelje da uradim konsultaciju.
15:05
just traveling out for two weeks to do a consultation.
331
905139
2896
15:10
So I told you before that when we were doing it the old-fashioned way,
332
910139
3469
Pre toga sam vam rekao
da kada smo ovo radili na starinski način, shvatio sam
15:13
I realized all of our work was really adding up to just a drop in the bucket --
333
913632
3795
da je sav naš rad samo dodavao na kap u moru -
15:17
10, 20, 30 different programs.
334
917451
1722
10, 20, 30 različitih programa.
Napravili smo dosta napretka, ali shvatam da sada,
15:20
We've made a lot of progress,
335
920036
1413
15:21
but I recognize that right now,
336
921473
1556
čak i posao koji smo uradili
15:23
even the work that we've done with 14,000 people using this
337
923053
3364
kada 14 000 ljudi ovo koristi,
15:26
is still a drop in the bucket.
338
926441
1463
to je još uvek kap u moru. Ali nešto se promenilo.
15:27
But something's changed, and I think it should be obvious.
339
927928
2730
Mislim da to treba da bude očigledno.
15:30
What's changed now is,
340
930682
2155
Promenjeno je to da,
15:32
instead of having a program in which we're scaling at such a slow rate
341
932861
3302
umesto da imamo program gde se raste tako malim koracima,
15:36
that we can never reach all the people who need us,
342
936187
3311
da nikada ne možemo da dođemo do svih ljudi kojima smo potrebni,
15:39
we've made it unnecessary for people to get reached by us.
343
939522
3582
učinili smo da nije potrebno da mi dopremo do ljudi.
15:43
We've created a tool that lets programs keep kids in school,
344
943128
5003
Napravili smo alat koji programima dozvoljava
da decu drže u školama, da prate broj beba
15:48
track the number of babies that are born and the number of babies that die,
345
948155
3939
koje su rođene i onih koje umru,
15:52
catch criminals and successfully prosecute them --
346
952118
3777
da hvataju kriminalce i uspešno ih gone,
15:55
to do all these different things to learn more about what's going on,
347
955919
4422
da rade sve ove različite stvari kako bi naučili više
o tome šta se dešava, da razumeju više, da vide više,
16:00
to understand more,
348
960365
1301
16:01
to see more ...
349
961690
1316
16:03
and to save lives and improve lives.
350
963911
1905
i da sačuvaju i poboljšaju živote.
16:07
Thank you.
351
967920
1152
Hvala vam.
16:09
(Applause)
352
969096
4269
(Aplauz)
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7