Joel Selanikio: The surprising seeds of a big-data revolution in healthcare
61,578 views ・ 2013-07-02
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譯者: Ning Zhang
審譯者: Sophia Liu
有一個很老的笑話是說
00:13
There's an old joke about a cop
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00:14
who's walking his beat
in the middle of the night,
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有一個警察在深夜裡巡邏,
00:16
and he comes across a guy
under a street lamp
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他遇到一個人在路燈下
一邊盯著地面看一邊來回走
00:19
who's looking at the ground
and moving from side to side,
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00:21
and the cop asks him what he's doing.
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警察問他在做什麼。
00:23
The guys says he's looking for his keys.
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那人說他正在找他的鑰匙。
00:25
So the cop takes his time
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所以警察也花時間幫他找
00:27
and looks over and kind of
makes a little matrix
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並且做了一些小記號,
00:29
and looks for about two, three minutes.
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大概花了兩、 三分鐘。
還是沒找到鑰匙。
00:31
No keys.
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00:32
The cop says, "Are you sure?
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警察說,"嘿,朋友,你確定你的鑰匙
00:35
Hey buddy, are you sure
you lost your keys here?"
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丟在這裡了嗎?”
00:37
And the guy says,
"No, actually I lost them
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這個人說 “不,不,其實我把它們丟在了
這條街的另一邊,
00:39
down at the other end of the street,
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但是這裡的光更亮。”
00:41
but the light is better here."
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00:42
(Laughter)
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00:46
There's a concept that people talk
about nowadays called "big data."
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現如今,人們談論著一個概念叫大數據,
他們談論的是
00:49
And what they're talking
about is all of the information
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我們通過網際網路互動時
00:52
that we're generating
through our interaction
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我們生成的所有資訊,
00:54
with and over the Internet,
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00:55
everything from Facebook and Twitter
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所有東西,從臉書、推特
到音樂下載、 電影、 串流媒體
所有這類的東西,
00:57
to music downloads, movies,
streaming, all this kind of stuff,
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01:01
the live streaming of TED.
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TED 的直播。
01:02
And the folks who work
with big data, for them,
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對於那些處理大數據的人們來說,
01:05
they talk about that their biggest problem
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他們談論的最大問題是
01:07
is we have so much information.
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我們有太多的資訊,
01:09
The biggest problem is: how do we
organize all that information?
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我們面對的最大問題是,
我們如何整理所有的資訊?
我告訴你,在全球健康領域工作,
01:13
I can tell you that,
working in global health,
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01:15
that is not our biggest problem.
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這不是我們最大的問題。
01:18
Because for us, even though
the light is better on the Internet,
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因為對我們來說,
即使網路上的燈更亮,
01:22
the data that would help us solve
the problems we're trying to solve
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即使網上的數據能幫我們解決一些問題
但我們試圖去解決的問題
實際上卻並不存在於網路上。
01:26
is not actually present on the Internet.
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01:28
So we don't know, for example,
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所以我們不知道,
01:30
how many people right now
are being affected by disasters
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例如,有多少人正在遭受災難
或陷入戰爭囹圄之中。
01:33
or by conflict situations.
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01:35
We don't know for, really,
basically, any of the clinics
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我們不知道發展中國家的診所裡
01:39
in the developing world,
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哪些有藥品,
01:40
which ones have medicines
and which ones don't.
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哪些沒有藥品。
01:42
We have no idea of what
the supply chain is for those clinics.
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我們完全不知道這些診所的供應鏈是怎樣的。
我們不知道——這真得讓我很吃驚——
01:46
We don't know -- and this is really
amazing to me -- we don't know
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我們不知道有多少孩子出生,
01:49
how many children were born --
or how many children there are --
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或有多少兒童在玻利維亞
01:53
in Bolivia or Botswana or Bhutan.
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博茨瓦納或不丹。
我們不知道在任何這些國家裡,
01:58
We don't know how many kids died last week
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上星期有多少孩子死去。
02:00
in any of those countries.
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02:01
We don't know the needs
of the elderly, the mentally ill.
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我們不知道老年人和精神病患者的需要。
02:04
For all of these different
critically important problems
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對於所有這些不同的卻非常重要的問題
02:07
or critically important areas
that we want to solve problems in,
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或我們想要解決問題的非常重要的領域,
我們基本上一無所知。
02:11
we basically know nothing at all.
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02:15
And part of the reason
why we don't know anything at all
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造成我們一無所知的部分原因
02:18
is that the information technology systems
that we use in global health
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是我們在全球健康組織工作時,
用來查找資料,解決問題的資訊技術系統
02:22
to find the data to solve
these problems is what you see here.
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就是您在這裡看到的。
02:27
This is about a 5,000-year-old technology.
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這是一個大約有五千年歷史的技術。
02:29
Some of you may have used it before.
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你們有些人此前可能用過。
它現在已經過時了,
02:31
It's kind of on its way out now,
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02:32
but we still use it
for 99 percent of our stuff.
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但我們 99% 的工作都使用它。
這是紙質表單,
02:35
This is a paper form.
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02:38
And what you're looking at is a paper form
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你正在看的是健康部護士
手中的一張紙質表單
02:40
in the hand of a Ministry of Health
nurse in Indonesia,
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她正徒步穿行在印度尼西亞的鄉下,
02:43
who is tramping out across the countryside
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02:45
in Indonesia on, I'm sure,
a very hot and humid day,
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在印尼,我確信,那是個十分炎熱和潮濕的一天,
02:49
and she is going to be knocking
on thousands of doors
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她要在幾週或幾個月內
02:51
over a period of weeks or months,
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去敲千家萬戶的門
邊敲門邊說,"打擾了,
02:54
knocking on the doors and saying,
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02:55
"Excuse me, we'd like to ask
you some questions.
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我們想問你一些問題。
02:58
Do you have any children?
Were your children vaccinated?"
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你有孩子嗎?你的孩子接種疫苗了嗎?"
03:02
Because the only way
we can actually find out
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因為讓我們可以找出
在印尼有多少兒童接種了疫苗
03:04
how many children were vaccinated
in the country of Indonesia,
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和他們接種了疫苗的百分比的唯一方法,
03:07
what percentage were vaccinated,
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03:08
is actually not on the Internet,
but by going out and knocking on doors,
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其實不在網際網路上,
而是通過走出去,敲那些門,
有時需要敲千千萬萬的門。
03:13
sometimes tens of thousands of doors.
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03:15
Sometimes it takes months to even years
to do something like this.
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有時需要幾個月甚至幾年
去做這樣的事情。
03:19
You know, a census of Indonesia
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你知道,印尼的人口普查
03:21
would probably take
two years to accomplish.
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可能會兩年才能完成。
03:23
And the problem, of course,
with all of this
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當然,這其中的問題
03:25
is that, with all those paper forms --
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在於所有那些紙質表單——我要告訴你
03:27
and I'm telling you, we have
paper forms for every possible thing:
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我們什麼事情都有紙質表單。
我們有接種疫苗調查的紙質表單。
03:30
We have paper forms
for vaccination surveys.
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03:32
We have paper forms to track
people who come into clinics.
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我們用紙質表單來跟蹤到診所來的人。
03:36
We have paper forms to track
drug supplies, blood supplies --
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我們用紙質表單來跟蹤藥品供應、
血液供應,所有這些不同的紙質表單
03:40
all these different paper forms
for many different topics,
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有許多不同的主題,
03:43
they all have a single, common endpoint,
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他們都有一個共同終結點,
03:45
and the common endpoint
looks something like this.
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那個共同的終結點看起來就像這樣。
03:48
And what we're looking
at here is a truckful of data.
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我們現在看到的是一卡車的數據。
這只是一個疫苗接種覆蓋範圍的調查資料
03:53
This is the data from a single
vaccination coverage survey
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03:57
in a single district
in the country of Zambia
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僅僅是尚比亞鄉下的一個地區而已
03:59
from a few years ago,
that I participated in.
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它們來自於前幾年我參加的一次調查。
04:01
The only thing anyone
was trying to find out
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我們唯一想找到的是
04:04
is what percentage of Zambian
children are vaccinated,
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尚比亞兒童接種疫苗的百分比,
04:07
and this is the data,
collected on paper over weeks,
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這是在數週內收集到紙上的數據資料,
04:10
from a single district,
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僅僅是一個地區,
04:11
which is something like a county
in the United States.
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有點像我們在美國的一個郡。
04:14
You can imagine that,
for the entire country of Zambia,
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你可以想像,整個國家的尚比亞,
回答只是這一個問題
04:17
answering just that single question ...
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04:20
looks something like this.
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看起來這樣的。
一車一車又一車
04:23
Truck after truck after truck,
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裝滿一堆一堆又一堆的數據資料。
04:25
filled with stack after stack
after stack of data.
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04:28
And what makes it even worse
is that's just the beginning.
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並且更糟糕的是,
這只是開始,
04:31
Because once you've collected
all that data,
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因為一旦你收集了所有的資料,
04:33
of course, someone --
some unfortunate person --
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當然有一些人必須要去——
有些不幸的人必須要把它們輸入到電腦上。
04:36
is going to have to type that
into a computer.
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04:38
When I was a graduate student,
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當我是研究生的時候,
04:40
I actually was that unfortunate
person sometimes.
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實際上我有時就是那不幸的人。
04:42
I can tell you, I often wasn't
really paying attention.
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我可以告訴你,我那時經常分心。
04:45
I probably made a lot
of mistakes when I did it
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我大概做了很多錯誤的輸入,
04:47
that no one ever discovered,
so data quality goes down.
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沒有人會發現,所以數據資料的品質會下降。
04:50
But eventually that data, hopefully,
gets typed into a computer,
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但是最終希望那些數據被輸入到了電腦上,
04:53
and someone can begin to analyze it,
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那樣有人就可以開始分析它們,
04:55
and once they have
an analysis and a report,
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一旦他們得出了一份分析和報告,
但願你能使用那些收集來的數據結果
04:58
hopefully, then you can take
the results of that data collection
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05:01
and use it to vaccinate children better.
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來更好地為孩子們接種疫苗。
05:03
Because if there's anything worse
in the field of global public health --
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因為如果在全球公共健康領域
有任何更糟的事情發生,
05:08
I don't know what's worse
than allowing children on this planet
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我不知道世上有什麼比讓孩子們
05:11
to die of vaccine-preventable diseases --
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死於原本疫苗可預防的疾病更糟糕的事情,
05:14
diseases for which
the vaccine costs a dollar.
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那些疾病的疫苗成本也就 1 美元。
05:17
And millions of children die
of these diseases every year.
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但是,每年有數百萬的兒童死於這些疾病。
而且事實是,數百萬只是一個粗略的估計,
05:21
And the fact is, millions
is a gross estimate,
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05:24
because we don't really know
how many kids die each year of this.
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因為我們真的不知道
每年究竟有多少孩子死於這些疾病。
05:27
What makes it even more frustrating
is that the data-entry part,
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讓人更加沮喪的是,
數據輸入的部分,
也就是我作為研究生時曾做過的工作,
05:31
the part that I used to do
as a grad student,
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有時會長達六個月之久。
05:33
can take sometimes six months.
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05:34
Sometimes it can take two years
to type that information into a computer,
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有時,可以用兩年時間把那些資訊輸入到電腦
有時,其實經常發生,
05:38
And sometimes, actually not infrequently,
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05:40
it actually never happens.
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那些數據根本不會被輸入。
05:42
Now try and wrap your head
around that for a second.
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現在試著想一想這一點。
05:44
You just had teams of hundreds of people.
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你只有一個幾百人的團隊。
05:47
They went out into the field
to answer a particular question.
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他們要去實地回答一個特定的問題。
你很可能花掉了成百上千美元
05:50
You probably spent hundreds
of thousands of dollars
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在燃料、複印和每日生活開支上,
05:52
on fuel and photocopying and per diem.
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然後出於某些原因,比如沒了勁頭兒
05:56
And then for some reason, momentum is lost
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05:58
or there's no money left,
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或者沒錢了,
05:59
and all of that comes to nothing,
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所有這一切都落空了
06:01
because no one actually types it
into the computer at all.
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因為實際上根本沒人把數據輸入到電腦裡。
06:04
The process just stops.
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這個過程就中斷了。但這常常發生。
06:05
Happens all the time.
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06:07
This is what we base
our decisions on in global health:
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這就是我們在在全球健康組織裡頭的決策基礎:
06:10
little data, old data, no data.
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少數據,舊數據,沒數據。
06:15
So back in 1995,
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所以,我們再回到 1995 年,我開始思考
06:17
I began to think about ways
in which we could improve this process.
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我們可以改善這一過程的方法。
06:20
Now 1995 -- obviously,
that was quite a long time ago.
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1995 年,很明顯,那是很久以前了。
06:23
It kind of frightens me to think
of how long ago that was.
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想想那有多久以前真得讓我有點害怕。
那年最精彩的電影是
06:26
The top movie of the year
was "Die Hard with a Vengeance."
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"終極警探3"。
正如您所看到的,
布魯斯 · 威利斯那時還有很多頭髮。
06:29
As you can see, Bruce Willis
had a lot more hair back then.
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06:31
I was working in the Centers
for Disease Control
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我那時正在疾病控制中心工作,
06:34
and I had a lot more
hair back then as well.
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那時我也有很多頭髮。
06:37
But to me, the most significant
thing that I saw in 1995
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但對我來說,在1995年,
我看到的最有意義的事
06:40
was this.
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是這個。
我們很難想像,但是在1995 年,
06:42
Hard for us to imagine, but in 1995,
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06:44
this was the ultimate elite mobile device.
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這是那時候最精英的移動裝置。
06:48
It wasn't an iPhone.
It wasn't a Galaxy phone.
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對吧?這不是一部 iPhone,
也不是三星 Galaxy 手機。
06:50
It was a PalmPilot.
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它是個掌上電腦。
06:52
And when I saw the PalmPilot
for the first time, I thought,
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當我第一次看到掌上電腦時,我想,
06:55
"Why can't we put the forms
on these PalmPilots?
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為什麼我們不能把那些表格放到掌上電腦上?
06:58
And go out into the field
just carrying one PalmPilot,
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然後去實地調查時就只帶著一個掌上電腦,
可以容納成千上萬的紙質表單。
07:01
which can hold the capacity
of tens of thousands of paper forms?
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我們為什麼不試著這樣做呢?
07:05
Why don't we try to do that?
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07:06
Because if we can do that,
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因為如果我們能那麼做,
07:07
if we can actually just collect
the data electronically, digitally,
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我們實際上就可以電子化、數字化地收集數據,
07:11
from the very beginning,
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從一開始,
07:13
we can just put a shortcut right
through that whole process
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我們就在整個過程中獲得了一個捷徑,
07:16
of typing, of having somebody type
that stuff into the computer.
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就不用打字,
不用讓人把那些數據輸入電腦裡了。
07:21
We can skip straight to the analysis
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我們可以直接進行分析,
07:23
and then straight to the use
of the data to actually save lives."
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然後直接用那些數據去實際地挽救生命了。
07:26
So that's what I began to do.
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所以那就是我開始做的事。
07:29
Working at CDC, I began to travel
to different programs around the world
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在疾病預防控制中心工作時,
我開始到全世界不同的部門
並且培訓他們用掌上電腦
07:33
and to train them in using
PalmPilots to do data collection,
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收集數據,而不是用紙張。
07:37
instead of using paper.
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07:39
And it actually worked great.
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實際工作進展得很順利。
07:41
It worked exactly as well
as anybody would have predicted.
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它就像每個人預計得那樣運作良好。
你知道嗎?電子數據收集
07:44
What do you know?
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07:45
Digital data collection is actually
more efficient than collecting on paper.
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實際上比用紙張收集高效很多。
當我在做這件事的時候,
我的生意夥伴,蘿絲,
07:49
While I was doing it, my business partner,
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她和她的丈夫,馬修,就在觀眾席裡,
07:51
Rose, who's here with her husband,
Matthew, here in the audience,
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蘿絲也去美國紅十字會做了同樣的事情。
07:54
Rose was out doing similar stuff
for the American Red Cross.
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問題是,在那幾年之後,
07:57
The problem was,
after a few years of doing that,
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我意識到我已經完成了——我可能已經去了
07:59
I realized -- I had been to maybe
six or seven programs --
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6 個或 7 個組織,我覺得,
08:03
and I thought, you know,
if I keep this up at this pace,
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你知道,如果再以這種速度繼續下去,
08:06
over my whole career,
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我整個職業生涯,也許我要去
08:07
maybe I'm going to go
to maybe 20 or 30 programs.
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也許 20 或 30 個組織。
08:10
But the problem is, 20 or 30 programs,
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但問題是,20或30個組織,
08:13
like, training 20 or 30 programs
to use this technology,
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給 20 或 30 個組織培訓使用這種技術,
08:16
that is a tiny drop in the bucket.
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這簡直就是杯水車薪。
這種要讓數據更好運行的需求,
08:19
The demand for this, the need
for data to run better programs
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08:22
just within health -- not to mention
all of the other fields
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僅僅是在健康領域,其他領域暫且不談,
08:25
in developing countries -- is enormous.
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在發展中國家,這需求是巨大的。
08:27
There are millions and millions
and millions of programs,
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有成千上萬難以計數的組織,
08:31
millions of clinics
that need to track drugs,
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數以百萬的診所需要跟蹤藥品情況,
08:34
millions of vaccine programs.
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數以百萬的疫苗組織。
08:35
There are schools
that need to track attendance.
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有很多學校需要紀錄出勤率。
有各種各樣這樣不同的事情,
08:38
There are all these different things
for us to get the data that we need to do.
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並且我意識到,
如果我繼續以我以前的方式,
08:42
And I realized if I kept up
the way that I was doing,
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08:46
I was basically hardly
going to make any impact
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在我的職業生涯結束之前,
我基本上很難做出什麼影響。
08:50
by the end of my career.
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08:51
And so I began to rack my brain,
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於是,我開動腦筋
08:53
trying to think about, what
was the process that I was doing?
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努力思考,
我在做的過程是什麼樣的,
08:56
How was I training folks,
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我怎麼培訓人們,我遇到的瓶頸是什麼
08:57
and what were the bottlenecks
and what were the obstacles
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更快速、更有效的阻礙?
09:01
to doing it faster
and to doing it more efficiently?
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我意識到——我確定了主要的阻礙。
09:03
And, unfortunately, after thinking
about this for some time,
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不幸的是,在思考這一段時間以後
09:06
I identified the main obstacle.
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我意識到——我確定了主要的阻礙。
09:10
And the main obstacle, it turned out --
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這個主要的阻礙出現了,
09:12
and this is a sad realization --
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並且這個發現讓我很沮喪。
這個主要的障礙就是我本人。
09:14
the main obstacle was me.
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09:16
So what do I mean by that?
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這是什麼意思呢?
09:18
I had developed a process
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我已經開發了這樣一個過程
09:20
whereby I was the center
of the universe of this technology.
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我是這項技術的中心。
如果您想要使用這項技術,你必須聯絡我。
09:26
If you wanted to use this technology,
you had to get in touch with me.
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這意味著你必須知道我的存在。
09:29
That means you had to know I existed.
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1824
然後你不得不拿出錢來付給我
09:31
Then you had to find the money
to pay for me to fly out to your country
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飛到你的國家
拿錢來支付我的旅館
09:34
and the money to pay for my hotel
and my per diem and my daily rate.
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和我的每日支出和日常開銷。
09:38
So you could be talking
about 10- or 20- or 30,000 dollars,
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2999
所以你可以說是 1 萬或 2 萬或 3 萬美元
09:41
if I actually had the time
or it fit my schedule
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2294
如果我真的有時間
或著能把這件事提上日程
09:43
and I wasn't on vacation.
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而且我沒有在度假。
09:45
The point is that anything,
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這個問題的關鍵在於任何事,任何系統
09:47
any system that depends
on a single human being
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2363
只要是依靠一兩個或三五個人,
09:49
or two or three or five human beings --
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1903
09:51
it just doesn't scale.
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1653
它就不會成規模。
09:53
And this is a problem for which
we need to scale this technology,
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問題就是我們需要傳播
這項技術,並且我們現在就需要擴大它的規模。
09:56
and we need to scale it now.
217
596793
1570
09:58
And so I began to think of ways
in which I could basically
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598387
2754
所以我開始想
能讓我把自己脫離出來的方法。
10:01
take myself out of the picture.
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601165
2588
你知道,我在想,
10:06
And, you know, I was thinking,
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606071
1644
10:07
"How could I take myself
out of the picture?"
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2104
我如何把自己脫離出來?
10:09
for quite some time.
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1619
想了相當一段時間。
10:11
I'd been trained that the way
you distribute technology
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611510
3476
你知道,我習慣於認為
在國際發展中傳播科技
10:15
within international development
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615010
1556
10:16
is always consultant-based.
225
616590
1562
總是基於諮詢顧問模式的。
10:18
It's always guys
that look pretty much like me,
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3001
總是看起來有些像我一樣的人
10:21
flying from countries
that look pretty much like this
227
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2548
從一些像這裡的國家飛到
10:23
to other countries
with people with darker skin.
228
623773
2339
有著深色皮膚人群的國家。
10:26
And you go out there,
and you spend money on airfare
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2462
你去到那些國家,你要花機票錢
10:29
and you spend time and you spend per diem
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3236
要花時間,在日常生活上還要花錢,
10:32
and you spend for a hotel
and all that stuff.
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632515
2349
花錢在旅館上,等等這些東西上。
10:34
As far as I knew, that was the only way
you could distribute technology,
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634888
3412
那時,據我所知,這是唯一傳播技術的方法,
我想不出其他解決辦法。
10:38
and I couldn't figure out a way around it.
233
638324
2035
但是奇蹟發生了,
10:40
But the miracle that happened --
234
640383
1754
10:42
I'm going to call it Hotmail for short.
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642851
1906
我把它簡稱為 Hotmail。
10:45
You may not think of Hotmail
as being miraculous,
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645168
2423
現在你可能不覺得的 Hotmail 有多神奇,
10:47
but for me it was miraculous,
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1437
但對我來說那是個奇蹟,
10:49
because I noticed, just as I
was wrestling with this problem --
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3612
因為,正當我為解決這一問題而絞盡腦汁的時候,
10:52
I was working in sub-Saharan
Africa, mostly, at the time --
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652712
3506
那時我大部分時間都在撒哈拉南部非洲工作。
10:56
I noticed that every sub-Saharan
African health worker
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2565
我注意到每個和我工作的
撒哈拉南部非洲的健康事業工作者
10:58
that I was working with
had a Hotmail account.
241
658831
2944
都使用 Hotmail 帳戶。
我想,它啓發了我,
11:03
And it struck me, "Wait a minute --
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663389
2928
等一下,我知道 Hotmail 公司的人
11:06
I know the Hotmail people surely didn't
fly to the Ministry of Health in Kenya
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4238
肯定不會飛到肯亞健康部去
11:10
to train people in how to use Hotmail.
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2076
培訓人們如何使用 Hotmail。
11:13
So these guys are distributing technology,
getting software capacity out there,
245
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4248
所以這些人正在傳播技術。
他們讓軟件應用能力傳播到那裡,
11:17
but they're not actually
flying around the world.
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677654
2328
但他們實際上並不在世界各地飛行。
關於這個我需要多想想。
11:20
I need to think about this more."
247
680006
1572
11:21
While I was thinking about it,
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681602
1450
當我正在想這個的時候,人們開始使用
11:23
people started using even more
things like this, just as we were.
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683076
3159
更多的東西,就像我們以前一樣。
11:26
They started using LinkedIn and Flickr
and Gmail and Google Maps --
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686259
3231
他們開始使用 LinkedIn 和 Flickr
Gmail 和谷歌地圖,所有這些事情。
11:29
all these things.
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689514
1157
11:30
Of course, all of these things
are cloud based
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690695
2691
當然,所有這些東西都是基於雲端的
11:33
and don't require any training.
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693410
2149
不需要任何培訓。
11:35
They don't require any programmers.
254
695583
1676
他們不需要任何的程式員。
11:37
They don't require consultants.
255
697283
1503
因為他們不需要任何顧問,
11:38
Because the business model
for all these businesses
256
698810
2485
因為所有這些企業的商業模式
11:41
requires that something be so simple
we can use it ourselves,
257
701319
2937
需要的東西簡單到我們可以自己使用它
11:44
with little or no training.
258
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1294
只要很少或根本不需要訓練。
11:45
You just have to hear about it
and go to the website.
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2595
你只是聽說過它,然後登錄那個網站。
所以,如果我們開發軟體來做我的諮詢工作
11:48
And so I thought, what would happen
if we built software
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708217
4196
11:52
to do what I'd been consulting in?
261
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2064
會發生什麼呢?
11:54
Instead of training people
how to put forms onto mobile devices,
262
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4072
我們不是培訓人們
如何將表單放到移動裝置上,
11:58
let's create software that lets them
do it themselves with no training
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718621
3301
是創建可以讓他們自己做事的軟體
不需培訓,也不需要我參與。
12:01
and without me being involved.
264
721946
1436
而這正是我們所做的。
12:03
And that's exactly what we did.
265
723406
1484
12:04
So we created software called Magpi,
which has an online form creator.
266
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5221
所以,我們創建了 Magpi 軟體
它有一個在線表單創建者。
12:10
No one has to speak to me,
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1252
不需要有人和我說話。
12:11
you just have to hear about it
and go to the website.
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你只需要聽說過它,然後登錄那個網站。
12:14
You can create forms,
and once you've created the forms,
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2658
您可以創建表單,一旦你創建了表單,
12:16
you push them to a variety
of common mobile phones.
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2461
你可以把他們推送到各種常見的手機上。
12:19
Obviously, nowadays, we've moved
past PalmPilots to mobile phones.
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3517
很明顯的是,我們已經用移動電話
取代了掌上電腦。
12:22
And it doesn't have to be a smartphone,
it can be a basic phone,
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3229
它不需要是智慧型手機。
它可以是非智慧型手機,就像右邊的這個一樣,
12:26
like the phone on the right,
the basic Symbian phone
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2490
你知道,這種非智慧型的塞班手機
12:28
that's very common
in developing countries.
274
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2062
在發展中國家非常普遍。
12:30
And the great part about this
is it's just like Hotmail.
275
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3689
最精彩的部分是,它就像 Hotmail 一樣。
12:34
It's cloud based,
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1151
它是基於雲端運算的,並不需要任何培訓,
12:35
and it doesn't require any training,
programming, consultants.
277
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3253
程式設計和顧問諮詢。
12:38
But there are some
additional benefits as well.
278
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2203
就像用掌上電腦一樣,最重要的一點是,
現在我們知道,當我們建立了這個系統,
12:41
Now we knew when we built this system,
279
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1873
就像用掌上電腦一樣,最重要的一點是
12:43
the whole point of it,
just like with the PalmPilots,
280
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2555
12:45
was that you'd be able to collect the data
281
765689
2799
你必須而且你能夠
收集數據並立即上載數據
以獲取您的數據庫。
12:48
and immediately upload
the data and get your data set.
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768512
2598
但是我們發現,當然,因為數據已經在電腦上了,
12:51
But what we found, of course,
since it's already on a computer,
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2985
我們可以提供即時圖像並且分析畫面。
12:54
we can deliver instant maps
and analysis and graphing.
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12:56
We can take a process that took two years
285
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2071
我們可以將一個需要花費兩年時間的過程
12:58
and compress that
down to the space of five minutes.
286
778873
3008
壓縮到只要五分鐘的時間。
令人難以置信的效率提升。
13:02
Unbelievable improvements in efficiency.
287
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2155
13:04
Cloud based, no training,
no consultants, no me.
288
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3708
基於雲端的,不需要培訓、 不需要顧問,不需要我。
13:09
And I told you that in the first few years
289
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2271
我告訴過你們,在最初的幾年中
13:11
of trying to do this
the old-fashioned way,
290
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2069
試圖用老方法做這個的時候,
13:13
going out to each country,
291
793908
1279
到每個國家去,
我們達到了大約,我不確定,
13:15
we probably trained about 1,000 people.
292
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4221
大概培訓了1000 人左右。
13:19
What happened after we did this?
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1682
在我們創建了軟體之後,發生了什麼事?
13:21
In the second three years,
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在第二個三年中,有14000 人
13:23
we had 14,000 people find the website,
295
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找到網站、 註冊,並開始使用它來收集數據,
13:25
sign up and start using it
to collect data:
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805236
2113
13:27
data for disaster response,
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1910
疾病反饋的數據,
加拿大養豬業者用來跟蹤豬的疾病和豬飼料,
13:29
Canadian pig farmers
tracking pig disease and pig herds,
298
809307
4434
13:33
people tracking drug supplies.
299
813765
1881
人們跟蹤藥品供應。
13:36
One of my favorite examples, the IRC,
International Rescue Committee,
300
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3344
我最喜歡的例子之一,
IRC,國際救援委員會
13:39
they have a program
where semi-literate midwives,
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819609
3213
他們有一個程式,能讓半文盲的助產士
13:42
using $10 mobile phones,
302
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2403
用 10 美元的手機
13:45
send a text message
using our software, once a week,
303
825273
3301
使用我們的軟體每週發送一次短消息
匯報出生人數量和死亡數量,
13:48
with the number of births
and the number of deaths,
304
828598
2476
這給了全球救援委員會
13:51
which gives IRC something that no one
in global health has ever had:
305
831098
3572
在全球健康組織前所未見的東西:
13:54
a near-real-time system
of counting babies,
306
834694
3522
一個近乎即時紀錄新生嬰兒數量的系統,
13:58
of knowing how many kids are born,
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838240
1634
知道多少孩子出生,
13:59
of knowing how many children
there are in Sierra Leone,
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2642
知道兒童的數量,
在塞拉里昂,人們正在使用它,
14:02
which is the country
where this is happening,
309
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2223
14:04
and knowing how many children die.
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1753
並且知道有多少兒童死去。
14:07
Physicians for Human Rights --
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847394
1573
人權組織的醫師——
14:08
this is moving a little bit
outside the health field --
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現在我們所說的有點超出了健康的領域——
14:11
they're basically training people
to do rape exams in Congo,
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他們在收集,他們基本上是培訓人們
做關於強姦的測驗,在剛果這是一種流行病,
14:16
where this is an epidemic,
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14:17
a horrible epidemic,
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一個可怕的流行病,
14:19
and they're using our software
to document the evidence they find,
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他們可以使用我們的軟體紀錄
他們找到的證據,包括圖像上的,
14:22
including photographically,
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14:24
so that they can bring
the perpetrators to justice.
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這樣,他們可以將犯罪者繩之以法。
14:28
Camfed, another charity
based out of the UK --
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Camfed,總部在英國的另一個慈善機構,
14:32
Camfed pays girls' families
to keep them in school.
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Camfed,支付給女孩的家庭,好讓她們繼續上學。
14:36
They understand this is the most
significant intervention they can make.
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他們明白這是他們能做的最有意義的干預
他們過去用紙張來跟蹤支出,
14:39
They used to track the disbursements,
the attendance, the grades, on paper.
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出勤,成績。
14:43
The turnaround time between a teacher
writing down grades or attendance
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從一個老師
寫下成績或出勤率
14:46
and getting that into a report
was about two to three years.
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然後大約兩至三年後得出報告。
14:49
Now it's real time.
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現在這是一個實時系統,並且因為這是如此
14:50
And because this is such a low-cost
system and based in the cloud,
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低成本的系統,以雲計算為基礎,它的成本,
14:54
it costs, for the entire five countries
that Camfed runs this in,
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對於 Camfed 資助的五個國家
數以萬計的女孩子們,
14:58
with tens of thousands of girls,
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所有成本加起來每年只需要一萬美金。
15:00
the whole cost combined
is 10,000 dollars a year.
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15:03
That's less than I used to get
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這比我以前
出去做兩週諮詢的花費要少。
15:05
just traveling out for two weeks
to do a consultation.
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15:10
So I told you before that when
we were doing it the old-fashioned way,
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所以,我之前告訴過你
當我們在用老式方法做的時候,
15:13
I realized all of our work was really
adding up to just a drop in the bucket --
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我意識到,我們所有的工作加起來
不過就是杯水車薪。
15:17
10, 20, 30 different programs.
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只是10、 20、 30個不同的組織,
我們已經取得了很大進展,但我承認
15:20
We've made a lot of progress,
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15:21
but I recognize that right now,
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現在,即使我們所做的工作
15:23
even the work that we've done
with 14,000 people using this
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有14000 人使用它,
15:26
is still a drop in the bucket.
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這仍是杯水車薪。但是已經發生了一些改變
15:27
But something's changed,
and I think it should be obvious.
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而且我認為它應該明顯。
15:30
What's changed now is,
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現在的改變是,
15:32
instead of having a program
in which we're scaling at such a slow rate
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我們過去用的低效率的方式已經被取代
15:36
that we can never reach
all the people who need us,
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我們再也不用到需要我們的人那裡去,
15:39
we've made it unnecessary
for people to get reached by us.
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我們已經做到不需要有人來找我們了。
15:43
We've created a tool
that lets programs keep kids in school,
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我們創造了一種工具,可以讓程式
可以讓孩子們留在學校,
15:48
track the number of babies that are born
and the number of babies that die,
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跟蹤嬰兒的出生和死亡數量,
15:52
catch criminals and successfully
prosecute them --
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逮捕罪犯並成功起訴他們,
15:55
to do all these different things
to learn more about what's going on,
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來做這些不同的事情從而瞭解更多
關於正在發生什麼,以便能瞭解更多,看得更多,
16:00
to understand more,
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16:01
to see more ...
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16:03
and to save lives and improve lives.
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來拯救生命和改善生活。
16:07
Thank you.
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謝謝。
16:09
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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