Why we ignore obvious problems — and how to act on them | Michele Wucker

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Kristina Radosavljević

So what if there were a highly obvious problem

Šta ako bi postojao veoma očigledan problem

right in front of you?

tik ispred vas?

One that everyone was talking about,

Problem o kome svi govore,

one that affected you directly.

problem koji direktno utiče na vas.

Would you do everything within your power to fix things

Da li biste učinili sve što je u vašoj moći da popravite stvari

before they got worse?

pre nego što se pogoršaju?

Don't be so sure.

Ne budite tako sigurni.

We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit

Svi smo mi mnogo više skloni nego što bismo hteli da priznamo

to miss what's right in front of our eyes.

da propustimo ono što nam je pred nosem.

And in fact,

U stvari,

we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things

ponekad je najveća verovatnoća da ćemo okrenuti leđa nečemu

precisely because of the threat that they represent to us,

baš zbog toga što predstavlja pretnju za nas,

in business, life and the world.

u poslu, životu i u svetu.

So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy.

Htela bih da vam dam jedan primer iz mog sveta, ekonomske politike.

So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve,

Kad je Alan Grinspen bio na čelu Federalnih rezervi,

his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy

čitav njegov posao je bio da pazi na probleme u američkoj ekonomiji

and to make sure that they didn't spin out of control.

i da se pobrine da ne izmaknu kontroli.

So, after 2006,

Nakon 2006. godine,

when real estate prices peaked,

kada su cene nekretnina dostigle vrhunac,

more and more and more respected leaders and institutions

sve više uglednih lidera i institucija

started to sound the alarm bells

počelo je da pokreće uzbunu

about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles.

zbog rizičnih pozajmica i opasno naduvanog tržišta.

As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down.

Kao što znate, 2008. godine se sve srušilo.

Banks collapsed,

Banke su propale,

global stock markets lost nearly half their value,

svetske berze su izgubile skoro polovinu svoje vrednosti,

millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.

milioni ljudi su izgubili domove zbog neisplaćenih hipoteka.

And at the bottom,

I na samom dnu,

nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work.

gotovo jedan od 10 Amerikanaca ostao je bez posla.

So after things calmed down a little bit,

Nakon što su se stvari malo stišale,

Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said,

Grinspen i mnogi drugi su se pojavili sa naknadnom analizom i rekli:

"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."

„Niko nije mogao da predvidi tu krizu.“

They called it "a black swan."

Nazivali su je „crnim labudom“.

Something that was unimaginable,

Nečim što je bilo nezamislivo,

unforeseeable and completely improbable.

nepredvidivo i potpuno neverovatno.

A total surprise.

Potpuno iznenađenje.

Except it wasn't always such a surprise.

Osim što nije bilo toliko iznenađenje.

For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value

Na primer, vrednost mog stana na Menhetnu se skoro dvostruko povećala

in less than four years.

za manje od četiri godine.

I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.

Uočila sam priliku i prodala ga.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

So, a lot of other people also saw the warning,

Mnogo drugih ljudi je takođe videlo upozorenje,

spoke out publicly

javno su govorili

and they were ignored.

i ljudi su ih ignorisali.

So we didn't know exactly what the crisis was going to look like,

Nismo znali tačno kako će kriza izgledati,

not the exact parameters,

nismo znali tačne parametre,

but we could all tell

ali svi smo mogli da primetimo

that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable

da je ono što nam se približava opasno, vidljivo i predvidljivo

as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.

kao džinovski sivi nosorog koji juri pravo na nas.

The black swan lends itself

Crni labud se priklanja

to the idea that we don't have power over our futures.

ideji da nemamo moć nad svojom budućnošću.

And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have,

I nažalost, što manje kontrole mislimo da imamo,

the more likely we are to downplay it

veća je verovatnoća da ćemo umanjiti značaj nečega

or ignore it entirely.

ili da ćemo ga skroz ignorisati.

And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem:

Ova opasna dinamika prikriva drugi problem,

that most of the problems that we're facing

da je većina problema sa kojima se suočavamo

are so probable and obvious,

tako verovatna i očigledna,

they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about.

da su to stvari koje možemo videti, ali i dalje ništa ne preduzimamo.

So I created the gray rhino metaphor

Smislila sam metaforu sivog nosoroga

to meet what I felt was an urgent need.

radi nečega što sam smatrala hitnom potrebom.

To help us to take a fresh look,

Da nam pomogne da zauzmemo novu perspektivu,

with the same passion that people had for the black swan,

sa istom strašću koju su ljudi imali prema crnom labudu,

but this time, for the things that were highly obvious,

ali ovoga puta prema stvarima koje su vrlo očigledne,

highly probable, but still neglected.

vrlo verovatne, a ipak zanemarene.

Those are the gray rhinos.

To su sivi nosorozi.

Once you start looking for gray rhinos,

Kada počnete da tražite sive nosoroge,

you see them in the headlines every day.

svakodnevno ih vidite u naslovima.

And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino,

Ja u naslovima vidim još jednog velikog sivog nosoroga,

a new highly probable financial crisis.

novu vrlo verovatnu finansijsku krizu.

And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years.

I pitam se jesmo li išta naučili tokom poslednjih 10 godina.

So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street,

Ako slušate Vašington ili Vol strit,

you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead.

skoro da vam se može oprostiti ako mislite da je pred nama mirno more.

But in China, where I spend a lot of time,

Ali u Kini, gde provodim dosta vremena,

the conversation is totally different.

vodi se vrlo drugačiji razgovor.

The entire economic team,

Čitav ekonomski tim,

all the way up to president Xi Jinping himself,

sve do samog predsednika Si Đinpinga,

talk very specifically and clearly

vrlo konkretno i jasno govori

about financial risks as gray rhinos,

o finansijskim rizicima kao o sivim nosorozima

and how they can tame them.

i o tome kako da ih ukrote.

Now, to be sure, China and the US

Nema sumnje, Kina i SAD

have very, very different systems of government,

imaju vrlo različite sisteme vlasti,

which affects what they're able to do or not.

što utiče na to šta mogu ili ne mogu da urade.

And many of the root causes for their economic problems

Mnogi suštinski uzroci njihovih ekonomskih problema

are totally different.

su sasvim različiti.

But it's no secret that both countries have problems

Ali nije tajna da obe zemlje imaju probleme

with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity.

sa dugovima, nejednakošću i ekonomskom produktivnošću.

So how come the conversations are so different?

Pa, kako to da se vode toliko različiti razgovori?

You could actually ask this question,

Ovo pitanje možete zapravo postaviti

not just about countries,

ne samo vezano za zemlje,

but about just about everyone.

već kada se radi o bilo kome.

The auto companies that put safety first

O auto-kompanijama kojima je bezbednost na prvom mestu

and the ones that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars

i onima koje se ne trude da povuku svoje falične automobile

until after people die.

sve dok ljudi ne umru.

The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable --

O bakama i dekama koji, se spremaju za neizbežno -

the ones who have the eulogy written,

onima koji imaju napisan govor o sebi

the menu for the funeral lunch.

i meni za ručak na sahrani.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

My grandparents did.

Moji baka i deka su to imali.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And everything but the final date chiseled into the gravestone.

I sve osim datuma smrti ugravirano na spomeniku.

But then you have the grandparents on the other side,

Ali imate i bake i deke koji, sa druge strane,

who don't put their final affairs in order,

ne srede stvari na vreme,

who don't get rid of all the junk

ne oslobode se beskorisnih stvari

they've been hoarding for decades and decades

koje su sakupljali decenijama

i ostave ih deci da se snalaze sa njima.

and leave their kids to deal with it.

So what makes the difference between one side and the other?

Pa, u čemu je razlika između jedne i druge strane?

Why do some people see things and deal with them,

Zašto neki ljudi vide stvari i pozabave se njima,

and the other ones just look away?

a drugi samo okrenu glavu?

So the first one has to do with culture, society,

To najpre ima veze sa kulturom, društvom

the people around you.

i ljudima oko vas.

If you think that someone around you

Ako mislite da će vam neko u vašoj blizini

is going to help pick you up when you fall,

pomoći da ustanete kada padnete,

you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.

veća je verovatnoća da ćete umanjivati opasnost.

And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones.

To nam omogućava i da pametno rizikujemo, ne samo sa lošim izgledima.

For example, like risking criticism

Na primer, kada rizikujete da vas kritikuju

when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you to talk about.

kada govorite o opasnosti o kojoj niko ne želi da sluša.

Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary,

Ili kada prihvatite prilike koje su pomalo strašne,

so in their own way are gray rhinos.

tako da su na neki način sivi nosorozi.

So the US has a very individualist culture -- go it alone.

Dakle, SAD ima individualističku kulturu - svako je za sebe.

And paradoxically,

Paradoksalno,

this makes many Americans much less open to change

zbog toga su mnogi Amerikanci mnogo manje spremni na promenu

and taking good risks.

i pametno rizikovanje.

In China, by contrast,

U Kini, nasuprot tome,

people believe that the government is going to keep problems from happening,

ljudi veruju da će vlada sprečiti probleme,

which might not always be what happens, but people believe it.

što možda nije uvek slučaj, ali ljudi u to veruju.

They believe they can rely on their families,

Veruju da se mogu osloniti na svoju porodicu,

so that makes them more likely to take certain risks.

pa su zbog toga više skloni da prihvate određeni rizik.

Like buying Beijing real estate,

Kao što je kupovina nekretnina u Pekingu,

or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction,

ili otvorenost prema činjenici da treba da promene pravac,

and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.

i zapravo, tempo promena u Kini je apsolutno neverovatan.

Second of all,

Kao drugo,

how much do you know about a situation,

koliko toga znate o situaciji,

how much are you willing to learn?

koliko ste spremni da učite?

And are you willing to see things even when it's not what you want?

Jeste li spremni da vidite stvari čak i kada nisu ono što želite?

So many of us are so unlikely

Mnogi među nama će teže

to pay attention to the things that we just want to black out,

obratiti pažnju na stvari koje prosto želimo da potisnemo,

we don't like them.

ne dopadaju nam se.

We pay attention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with.

Obraćamo pažnju na ono što želimo da vidimo, što volimo, sa čime se slažemo.

But we have the opportunity and the ability

Ali imamo mogućnost i sposobnost

to correct those blind spots.

da ispravimo te slepe mrlje.

I spend a lot of time talking with people of all walks of life

Provodim mnogo vremena u razgovoru sa najrazličitijim ljudima

about the gray rhinos in their life and their attitudes.

o sivim nosorozima u njihovom životu i o njihovim stavovima.

And you might think

Možda biste pomislili

that the people who are more afraid of risk,

da su ljudi koji se više boje rizika,

who are more sensitive to them,

koji su osetljiviji na njih,

would be the ones who would be less open to change.

oni koji su manje otvoreni za promenu.

But the opposite is actually true.

Ali u stvari je suprotno.

I've found that the people

Otkrila sam da su ljudi

who are wiling to recognize the problems around them

koji su spremni da prepoznaju probleme koji ih okružuju i koji planiraju

and make plans

are the ones who are able to tolerate more risk, good risk,

ti koji su u stanju da tolerišu više rizikovanja, pametnog rizikovanja,

and deal with the bad risk.

i da se izbore sa lošim rizicima.

And it's because as we seek information,

To je zato što, kada tražimo informacije,

we increase our power to do something about the things that we're afraid of.

povećavamo svoju moć da nešto uradimo u vezi sa stvarima kojih se bojimo.

And that brings me to my third point.

To me navodi na treću stavku.

How much control do you feel that you have

Koliko kontrole mislite da imate

over the gray rhinos in your life?

nad sivim nosorozima u svom životu?

One of the reasons we don't act

Jedan od razloga zbog kojih ne delamo

is that we often feel too helpless.

je taj da se često osećamo previše bespomoćno.

Think of climate change, it can feel so big,

Pomislite na klimatske promene koje se čine toliko velikim

that not a single one of us could make a difference.

da niko od nas ne može da značajno utiče.

So some people go about life denying it.

Zato neki ljudi idu kroz život poričući ih.

Other people blame everyone except themselves.

Drugi ljudi krive svakog osim sebe.

Kao moj prijatelj koji kaže da se neće odreći svog auta

Like my friend who says he's not ever going to give up his SUV

until they stop building coal plants in China.

dok u Kini ne prestanu da prave termoelektrane na ugalj.

But we have an opportunity to change.

Ali imamo priliku za promenu.

No two of us are the same.

Ne postoje dve osobe među nama koje su iste.

Every single one of us has the opportunity to change our attitudes,

Svako od nas ima mogućnost da promeni svoje stavove,

our own and those of people around us.

svoje i stavove ljudi oko sebe.

So today, I want to invite all of you

Zato danas želim da vas sve pozovem

to join me in helping to spark an open and honest conversation

da mi se pridružite u podsticanju otvorenog i iskrenog razgovora

with the people around you,

sa ljudima oko sebe

about the gray rhinos in our world,

o sivim nosorozima našeg sveta,

and be brutally honest about how well we're dealing with them.

i da budemo brutalno iskreni vezano za to koliko se dobro bavimo njima.

I hear so many times in the States,

Toliko puta čujem u SAD-u:

"Well, of course we should deal with obvious problems,

„Pa, naravno da treba da se bavimo očiglednim problemima,

but if you don't see what's in front of you,

ali ako ne vidite šta vam je pred nosem,

you're either dumb or ignorant."

ili ste budala ili neznalica.“

That's what they say, and I could not disagree more.

Tako kažu, i uopšte se ne bih složila.

If you don't see what's in front of you,

Ako ne vidite šta vam je pred nosem,

you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,

niste budala, niste neznalica,

you're human.

čovek ste.

And once we all recognize that shared vulnerability,

Kada svi prepoznamo tu ranjivost koja nam je zajednička,

that gives us the power to open our eyes,

to nam daje snagu da otvorimo oči,

to see what's in front of us

da vidimo šta je pred nama

and to act before we get trampled.

i da delamo pre nego što nas pregazi.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)