Danny Hillis: The Internet could crash. We need a Plan B

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Aniko Kovac Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

So, this book that I have in my hand

Ova knjiga koju držim u ruci

is a directory of everybody who had an email address

je imenik svih ljudi koji su imali e-mail adrese

in 1982. (Laughter)

1982. (Smeh)

Actually, it's deceptively large.

On je u stvari samo naizgled velik.

There's actually only about 20 people on each page,

Postoji otprilike samo 20-ak ljudi na svakoj strani

because we have the name, address

jer je tu ime, adresa

and telephone number of every single person.

i broj telefona svakog od njih.

And, in fact, everybody's listed twice,

U stvari, svako je naveden dva puta,

because it's sorted once by name and once by email address.

jednom poređan po imenu i jednom po e-mail adresi.

Obviously a very small community.

Očigledno je u pitanju veoma mala zajednica.

There were only two other Dannys on the Internet then.

Tada su postojala samo još dva Denija na internetu.

I knew them both.

Poznavao sam obojicu.

We didn't all know each other,

Nismo svi znali jedni druge,

but we all kind of trusted each other,

ali smo na neki način verovali jedni drugima

and that basic feeling of trust

i taj osećaj poverenja je

permeated the whole network,

prožimao čitavu mrežu

and there was a real sense that

i osećali smo se kao da

we could depend on each other to do things.

se možemo osloniti jedni na druge za razne stvari.

So just to give you an idea of the level of trust in this community,

Kako bih vam približio nivo poverenja u ovoj zajednici,

let me tell you what it was like

dozvolite mi da vam ispričam kako je izgledala

to register a domain name in the early days.

registracija internet domena na početku.

Now, it just so happened that I got to register

Igrom slučaja, imao sam priliku da registrujem

the third domain name on the Internet.

treći domen na internetu.

So I could have anything I wanted

Mogao sam da odaberem bilo šta

other than bbn.com and symbolics.com.

sem bbn.com i symbolics.com.

So I picked think.com, but then I thought,

Odabrao sam think.com, ali sam onda pomislio

you know, there's a lot of really interesting names out there.

da postoji mnogo poprilično interesantnih imena.

Maybe I should register a few extras just in case.

Možda bih trebao da registrujem još koje za svaki slučaj.

And then I thought, "Nah, that wouldn't be very nice."

Ali sam onda pomislio: "Ne, to ne bi bilo lepo od mene."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

That attitude of only taking what you need

U to vreme svi su na mreži uzimali

was really what everybody had on the network in those days,

samo ono što im je potrebno

and in fact, it wasn't just the people on the network,

i u stvari to nije bilo samo do ljudi na mreži,

but it was actually kind of built into the protocols

već je to na neki način bilo ugrađeno u protokole

of the Internet itself.

samog interneta.

So the basic idea of I.P., or Internet protocol,

Osnovna ideja IP-ja ili internet protokola

and the way that the -- the routing algorithm that used it,

i načina na koji ga je algoritam preusmeravanja koristio,

were fundamentally "from each according to their ability,

bila je u osnovi: "od svakoga prema njihovim mogućnostima,

to each according to their need."

svakome prema njihovoj potrebi."

And so, if you had some extra bandwidth,

Tako da, ako ste imali višak protoka,

you'd deliver a message for someone.

preneli biste nečiju poruku umesto njih.

If they had some extra bandwidth, they would deliver a message for you.

Ako je neko imao višak protoka, oni bi preneli poruku za vas.

You'd kind of depend on people to do that,

Na neki način smo se oslanjali na ljude da to rade

and that was the building block.

i to je bio kamen temeljac.

It was actually interesting that such a communist principle

U stvari je interesantno kako je takav komunistički princip

was the basis of a system developed during the Cold War

bio osnova sistema koji je, tokom Hladnog rata

by the Defense Department,

razvilo Ministarstvo odbrane,

but it obviously worked really well,

ali je radio veoma dobro

and we all saw what happened with the Internet.

i svi smo videli šta se desilo s internetom.

It was incredibly successful.

Postao je veoma uspešan.

In fact, it was so successful that there's no way

U stvari, postao je toliko uspešan da ne postoji način

that these days you could make a book like this.

da danas napravite knjigu kao što je ova.

My rough calculation is it would be about 25 miles thick.

Procenjujem da bi bila debela oko 40 kilometara.

But, of course, you couldn't do it,

Ali, naravno, ne možemo da to uradimo

because we don't know the names of all the people

jer ne znamo imena svih ljudi

with Internet or email addresses,

sa pristupom internetu ili sa e-mail adresama.

and even if we did know their names,

Čak i da znamo njihova imena,

I'm pretty sure that they would not want their name,

poprilično sam siguran da oni ne bi želeli da njihova imena,

address and telephone number published to everyone.

adrese i brojevi telefona budu dostupni svima.

So the fact is that there's a lot of bad guys on the Internet these days,

Činjenica je da postoji mnogo loših ljudi na internetu danas

and so we dealt with that by making

i borimo se protiv toga stvaranjem

walled communities,

zaštićenih zajednica,

secure subnetworks, VPNs,

bezbednih podmreža, virtuelnih privatnih mreža,

little things that aren't really the Internet

malih stvari koje nisu baš internet,

but are made out of the same building blocks,

ali su sastavljene od istih delova,

but we're still basically building it out of those

u osnovi ih gradimo iz istih onih

same building blocks with those same assumptions of trust.

delova i sa istim onim pretpostavkama o poverenju.

And that means that it's vulnerable

To znači da su oni podložni

to certain kinds of mistakes that can happen,

određenim greškama koje se mogu desiti

or certain kinds of deliberate attacks,

ili nekim namernim napadima,

but even the mistakes can be bad.

ali čak i same greške mogu biti loše.

So, for instance,

Na primer,

in all of Asia recently,

nedavno je u čitavoj Aziji

it was impossible to get YouTube for a little while

bilo nemoguće pristupiti Jutjubu neko vreme

because Pakistan made some mistakes

jer je Pakistan načinio neke greške

in how it was censoring YouTube in its internal network.

u cenzuri Jutjuba u svojoj unutrašnjoj mreži.

They didn't intend to screw up Asia, but they did

Nisu nameravali da zabrljaju u čitavoj Aziji, ali jesu

because of the way that the protocols work.

zbog načina na koji protokoli funkcionišu.

Another example that may have affected many of you in this audience is,

Još jedan primer koji je možda uticao na mnoge od vas u publici,

you may remember a couple of years ago,

možda se sećate pre nekoliko godina,

all the planes west of the Mississippi were grounded

svi avioni u Misisipiju su prinudno sleteli,

because a single routing card in Salt Lake City

jer je jedna jedina kartica za usmeravanje u Solt Lejk Sitiju

had a bug in it.

imala grešku.

Now, you don't really think

Nikada ne pomislimo na to

that our airplane system depends on the Internet,

da naši avionski sistemi zavise od interneta

and in some sense it doesn't.

i na neki način oni ni ne zavise.

I'll come back to that later.

Vratiću se na to kasnije.

But the fact is that people couldn't take off

Ali je činjenica da ljudi nisu mogli da polete

because something was going wrong on the Internet,

jer nešto nije bilo u redu s internetom

and the router card was down.

i kartica za usmeravanje nije radila.

And so, there are many of those things that start to happen.

I tako razne stvari počinju da se dešavaju.

Now, there was an interesting thing that happened last April.

Interesantna svar se desila prošlog aprila.

All of a sudden,

Iznenada

a very large percentage of the traffic on the whole Internet,

veliki procenat prometa na internetu

including a lot of the traffic between U.S. military installations,

uključujući i onaj između postrojenja vojske SAD

started getting re-routed through China.

bio je preusmeravan kroz Kinu.

So for a few hours, it all passed through China.

Nekoliko sati, sve je prolazilo kroz Kinu.

Now, China Telecom says it was just an honest mistake,

Kineski Telekom tvrdi da je to bila nenamerna greška

and it is actually possible that it was, the way things work,

i moguće je da jeste, zbog načina na koji stvari funkcionišu,

but certainly somebody could make

ali bi neko zasigurno mogao da napravi

a dishonest mistake of that sort if they wanted to,

i namernu grešku tog tipa ukoliko bi želeo

and it shows you how vulnerable the system is even to mistakes.

i to nam pokazuje koliko je sistem ranjiv, čak i kada su u pitanju greške.

Imagine how vulnerable the system is to deliberate attacks.

Zamislite koliko je sistem podložan namernim napadima.

So if somebody really wanted to attack the United States

Ukoliko bi neko zaista želeo da napadne SAD

or Western civilization these days,

ili Zapadnu civilizaciju danas,

they're not going to do it with tanks.

ne bi to uradili tenkovima.

That will not succeed.

To ne bi uspelo.

What they'll probably do is something

Ono što će najverovatnije uraditi je nešto

very much like the attack that happened

veoma slično onome što se desilo

on the Iranian nuclear facility.

u nuklearnom postrojenju u Iranu.

Nobody has claimed credit for that.

Niko nije preuzeo odgovornost za to.

There was basically a factory of industrial machines.

Bila je to fabrika industrijske mašinerije.

It didn't think of itself as being on the Internet.

Oni nisu smatrali da su prikačeni na internet.

It thought of itself as being disconnected from the Internet,

Mislili su da su odvojeni od interneta,

but it was possible for somebody to smuggle

ali je neko uspeo da prokrijumčari

a USB drive in there, or something like that,

USB memoriju ili nešto nalik tome

and software got in there that causes the centrifuges,

i putem softvera natera centrifuge

in that case, to actually destroy themselves.

da unište same sebe.

Now that same kind of software could destroy an oil refinery

Softver kao ovaj bi mogao da uništi rafineriju ulja

or a pharmaceutical factory or a semiconductor plant.

ili fabriku lekova ili postrojenje poluprovodnika.

And so there's a lot of -- I'm sure you've read a lot in papers,

Siguran sam da ste čitali o tome u novinama,

about worries about cyberattacks

o brizi zbog sajber napada

and defenses against those.

i o odbrani protiv njih.

But the fact is, people are mostly focused on

Ali je činjenica da su ljudi uglavnom usmereni

defending the computers on the Internet,

na odbranu računara na internetu

and there's been surprisingly little attention

i iznenađujuće malo pažnje se posvećuje

to defending the Internet itself as a communications medium.

odbrani samog interneta kao medija za komunikaciju.

And I think we probably do need to pay

Smatram da bi trebalo da obratimo

some more attention to that, because it's actually kind of fragile.

malo više pažnje na to jer je on u stvari veoma ranjiv.

So actually, in the early days,

U ranim danima,

back when it was the ARPANET,

kada je postojao ARPANET,

there were actually times -- there was a particular time it failed completely

bilo je perioda kada - jednom prilikom je on u potpunosti otkazao,

because one single message processor

zato što je jedan jedini procesor za poruke

actually got a bug in it.

imao grešku u sebi.

And the way the Internet works is

Način na koji internet funkcioniše je

the routers are basically exchanging information

da ruteri u suštini razmenjuju informacije

about how they can get messages to places,

o tome kako mogu da prenesu poruke na razna mesta

and this one processor, because of a broken card,

i ovaj jedan procesor je, zbog pokvarene kartice,

decided it could actually get a message

odlučio da može da dostavi poruku

to some place in negative time.

na neko mesto u prošlosti.

So, in other words, it claimed it could deliver a message before you sent it.

Drugim rečima, smatrao je da može da dostavi poruku pre nego što ste je poslali.

So of course, the fastest way to get a message anywhere

Naravno, najbrži način da pošaljete poruku bilo gde

was to send it to this guy,

je bila da je pošaljete ovom čoveku

who would send it back in time and get it there super early,

koji bi je poslao nazad u vreme i tako bi ona stigla pre vremena.

so every message in the Internet

Zbog toga je svaka poruka na internetu

started getting switched through this one node,

počela da prolazi kroz ovaj čvor

and of course that clogged everything up.

i naravno to je začepilo sistem.

Everything started breaking.

Sve je počelo da se raspada.

The interesting thing was, though,

Interesantna svar je bila

that the sysadmins were able to fix it,

da su administratori sistema uspeli da to isprave,

but they had to basically turn every single thing on the Internet off.

ali su u suštini morali da isključe svaku pojedinačnu stvar na internetu.

Now, of course you couldn't do that today.

To danas ne biste mogli da uradite.

I mean, everything off, it's like

Da se sve isključi, to bi bilo kao

the service call you get from the cable company,

kada vas neko nazove da ne radi kablovska,

except for the whole world.

samo u celom svetu.

Now, in fact, they couldn't do it for a lot of reasons today.

To danas ne bi bilo moguće zbog nekoliko razloga.

One of the reasons is a lot of their telephones

Jedan od njih je to što većina njihovih telefona

use IP protocol and use things like Skype and so on

koristi IP protokole i stvari kao što su Skajp i tako dalje,

that go through the Internet right now,

stvari koje rade preko interneta

and so in fact we're becoming dependent on it

i tako mi postajemo zavisni od njega

for more and more different things,

za sve više i više različitih stvari,

like when you take off from LAX,

kada uzlećete sa aerodroma,

you're really not thinking you're using the Internet.

ni ne pomišljate da koristite internet.

When you pump gas, you really don't think you're using the Internet.

Dok točite gorivo, ni ne znate da koristite internet.

What's happening increasingly, though, is these systems

Ono što se sve više i više dešava jeste da ovi sistemi

are beginning to use the Internet.

počinju da koriste internet.

Most of them aren't based on the Internet yet,

Većina njih još nije bazirana na internetu,

but they're starting to use the Internet for service functions,

ali počinju da koriste internet kao servis,

for administrative functions,

za administraciju

and so if you take something like the cell phone system,

i kada pogledate nešto kao što je fiksna telefonija,

which is still relatively independent of the Internet for the most part,

koja je relativno nezavisna od interneta,

Internet pieces are beginning to sneak into it

delovi interneta se polako uvlače u nju,

in terms of some of the control and administrative functions,

delom kao kontrola ili za administraciju

and it's so tempting to use these same building blocks

i veoma je primamljivo koristiti ove delove

because they work so well, they're cheap,

jer rade veoma dobro i jeftini su,

they're repeated, and so on.

mogu se ponavljati i tako dalje.

So all of our systems, more and more,

Svi naši sistemi, sve više i više

are starting to use the same technology

počinju da upotrebljavaju istu tehnologiju

and starting to depend on this technology.

i počinju da zavise od nje.

And so even a modern rocket ship these days

Čak i savremene rakete danas

actually uses Internet protocol to talk

koriste internet protokol za komunikaciju

from one end of the rocket ship to the other.

jednog dela rakete s drugim.

That's crazy. It was never designed to do things like that.

To je suludo. Internet nije osmišljen da radi takve stvari.

So we've built this system

Sagradili smo sistem

where we understand all the parts of it,

čije delove razumemo,

but we're using it in a very, very different way than we expected to use it,

ali ga koristimo na veoma drugačiji način nego što se očekuje

and it's gotten a very, very different scale

i on je prerastao svrhu

than it was designed for.

za koju je osmišljen.

And in fact, nobody really exactly understands

U stvari niko više ne razume

all the things it's being used for right now.

sve stvari za koje se on sada koristi.

It's turning into one of these big emergent systems

Postao je jedan od onih velikih rastućih sistema,

like the financial system, where we've designed all the parts

kao finansijski sistem, gde smo osmislili sve delove,

but nobody really exactly understands

ali niko u stvari ne razume

how it operates and all the little details of it

kako oni rade i sve njegove detalje

and what kinds of emergent behaviors it can have.

i kakve još stvari može da radi.

And so if you hear an expert talking about the Internet

Kada čujete stručnjaka kako govori o internetu

and saying it can do this, or it does do this, or it will do that,

i kaže da on može da radi ovo ili radi ono ili će raditi to,

you should treat it with the same skepticism

treba da budete skeptični

that you might treat the comments of an economist about the economy

kao kada slušate komentare ekonomiste o ekonomiji

or a weatherman about the weather, or something like that.

ili meteorologa o vremenu ili nešto nalik tome.

They have an informed opinion,

Oni imaju svoje stručno mišljenje,

but it's changing so quickly that even the experts

ali se stvari toliko brzo menjaju da čak ni stručnjaci

don't know exactly what's going on.

nisu sigurni šta se dešava.

So if you see one of these maps of the Internet,

Kada vidite jednu od onih mapa interneta,

it's just somebody's guess.

to je samo nečije nagađanje.

Nobody really knows what the Internet is right now

Niko trenutno ne zna šta je internet

because it's different than it was an hour ago.

jer je bio drugačiji pre sat vremena.

It's constantly changing. It's constantly reconfiguring.

On se stalno menja, stalno se ponovno konfiguriše.

And the problem with it is,

Smatram da je problem u tome

I think we are setting ourselves up for a kind of disaster

što smo se predodredili za jednu katastrofu,

like the disaster we had in the financial system,

kao što je bila finansijska katastrofa,

where we take a system that's basically built on trust,

gde je sistem izgrađen na poverenju,

was basically built for a smaller-scale system,

u osnovi izgrađen za manje sisteme

and we've kind of expanded it way beyond the limits

i proširili smo ga izvan njegovih granica

of how it was meant to operate.

i onoga za šta je namenjen.

And so right now, I think it's literally true

Smatram da

that we don't know what the consequences

ne znamo kakve posledice

of an effective denial-of-service attack

jedan uspešan napad zabrane pristupa

on the Internet would be,

na internetu može da ima

and whatever it would be is going to be worse next year,

i kakav god da je, biće gori za godinu dana

and worse next year, and so on.

i još gori sledeće godine i tako dalje.

But so what we need is a plan B.

Ono što nam je potrebno je plan B.

There is no plan B right now.

Trenutno ne postoji plan B.

There's no clear backup system that we've very carefully kept

Ne postoji jasan rezervni sitem koji se čuva

to be independent of the Internet,

da bude nezavistan od interneta

made out of completely different sets of building blocks.

sastavljen od drugačijih elemenata.

So what we need is something that doesn't necessarily

Ono što nam je potrebno je nešto što nije

have to have the performance of the Internet,

vezano za internet,

but the police department has to be able

ali policija mora da bude sposobna

to call up the fire department even without the Internet,

da pozove vatrogasce čak i bez interneta

or the hospitals have to order fuel oil.

ili bolnice moraju da naruče gorivo.

This doesn't need to be a multi-billion-dollar government project.

Ovo ne mora da bude vladin projekat vredan više milijardi dolara.

It's actually relatively simple to do, technically,

To je u stvari relativno jednostavno s tehničke strane

because it can use existing fibers that are in the ground,

jer se mogu koristiti postojeće uzemljene mreže,

existing wireless infrastructure.

postojeća bežična infrastruktura.

It's basically a matter of deciding to do it.

Stvar je u opredeljivanju na taj korak.

But people won't decide to do it

Ali ljudi se neće odlučiti na to,

until they recognize the need for it,

dok ne prepoznaju potrebu za tim

and that's the problem that we have right now.

i to je problem koji trenutno imamo.

So there's been plenty of people,

Ima mnogo ljudi,

plenty of us have been quietly arguing

mnogi od nas u tišini raspravljamo

that we should have this independent system for years,

o potrebi za nezavisnim sistemom već godinama,

but it's very hard to get people focused on plan B

ali je veoma teško usmeriti pažnju ljudi na plan B

when plan A seems to be working so well.

kada plan A naizgled veoma dobro funkcioniše.

So I think that, if people understand

Mislim da ukoliko ljudi budu razumeli

how much we're starting to depend on the Internet,

koliko počinjemo da zavisimo od interneta

and how vulnerable it is,

i koliko je on ranjiv,

we could get focused on

da bismo onda mogli da se usmerimo

just wanting this other system to exist,

na želju za postojanjem ovog drugog sistema

and I think if enough people say, "Yeah, I would like to use it,

i mislim da ako dovoljno ljudi kaže: "Da, voleo bih da ga koristim,

I'd like to have such a system," then it will get built.

voleo bih da imam takav sistem", da bi onda on bio sagrađen.

It's not that hard a problem.

To nije toliki problem.

It could definitely be done by people in this room.

Ljudi u ovoj prostoriji bi mogli da to urade.

And so I think that this is actually,

Mislim da je u stvari

of all the problems you're going to hear about at the conference,

od svih problema o kojima ćete slušati na ovoj konferenciji

this is probably one of the very easiest to fix.

ovaj najverovatnije najlakše rešiti.

So I'm happy to get a chance to tell you about it.

Drago mi je što sam dobio priliku da vam govorim o tome.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)