Danny Hillis: The Internet could crash. We need a Plan B

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Jephian Lin 審譯者: hunghsin sung

So, this book that I have in my hand

嗯，我手上的這本書

is a directory of everybody who had an email address

是 1982 年所有電子信箱的

in 1982. (Laughter)

地址通訊錄。（笑聲）

Actually, it's deceptively large.

實際上，它的大小是騙人的。

There's actually only about 20 people on each page,

其中每頁根本就只有將近 20 人的資料，

because we have the name, address

因為那包含每個人的 人名、地址、

and telephone number of every single person.

及電話號碼。

And, in fact, everybody's listed twice,

而實際上，每個人都出現了兩次，

because it's sorted once by name and once by email address.

因為一次是用人名排列， 而一次是用信箱位址排列。

Obviously a very small community.

很明顯是一個小族群。

There were only two other Dannys on the Internet then.

當時的網路中只有另外兩個人也叫 Danny。 （和講者同名）

I knew them both.

兩個人我都認識。

We didn't all know each other,

我們並不全然知道對方，

but we all kind of trusted each other,

但是我們都一定程度地信任對方，

and that basic feeling of trust

而這種基本的信任感，

permeated the whole network,

瀰漫了整個網路世界，

and there was a real sense that

進而存在一種真實的感覺，

we could depend on each other to do things.

彷彿我們可以仰賴彼此來做些事情。

So just to give you an idea of the level of trust in this community,

為了讓各位對這種信任的程度有個概念，

let me tell you what it was like

讓我來告訴你們

to register a domain name in the early days.

在早些年代註冊一個網域名稱 是什麼樣子。

Now, it just so happened that I got to register

嗯，意外地我那時註冊的

the third domain name on the Internet.

是整個網際網路中 第三個網域名稱。

So I could have anything I wanted

所以我可以用任何我喜歡的名字，

other than bbn.com and symbolics.com.

只要不是 bbn.com 或是 symbolics.com。

So I picked think.com, but then I thought,

所以我選了 think.com，但是我又想，

you know, there's a lot of really interesting names out there.

你知道的，還有一堆有趣的名字可以用。

Maybe I should register a few extras just in case.

也許我可以多註冊幾個 以備哪天不時之須。

And then I thought, "Nah, that wouldn't be very nice."

但最後我想：「算了，這樣不太好。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That attitude of only taking what you need

這種須要多少拿多少 的態度

was really what everybody had on the network in those days,

真的就是那年代的網路中 每個人心中所想的，

and in fact, it wasn't just the people on the network,

而事實上，並不只有人這麼想，

but it was actually kind of built into the protocols

實際上這想法也建立到網路本身

of the Internet itself.

的通訊協定中。

So the basic idea of I.P., or Internet protocol,

所以 I.P.，或是所謂的網路協定， 的基本概念，

and the way that the -- the routing algorithm that used it,

還有它基於這協定的路由演算法， （譯註：即決定由哪臺電腦接手傳輸的演算法。）

were fundamentally "from each according to their ability,

基本上就是「盡其所能，

to each according to their need."

各取所需。」

And so, if you had some extra bandwidth,

所以，如果你有多的頻寬，

you'd deliver a message for someone.

你會幫別人傳些訊息。

If they had some extra bandwidth, they would deliver a message for you.

而如果他們有多的頻寬， 他們也會幫你傳遞訊息。

You'd kind of depend on people to do that,

一定程度上你必須依賴人們這麼做，

and that was the building block.

而這是網際網路的構成要素。

It was actually interesting that such a communist principle

很有趣的是，這樣一種 共產主義的原則

was the basis of a system developed during the Cold War

是冷戰時期國防部所開發的一個系統， 它的基礎，

by the Defense Department,

是冷戰時期國防部所開發的一個系統， 它的基礎，

but it obviously worked really well,

但很明顯地它運作得非常好，

and we all saw what happened with the Internet.

而我們都見證了網際網路的發展。

It was incredibly successful.

簡直是不可思議地成功。

In fact, it was so successful that there's no way

事實上，網際網路實在太成功， 以致於你不可能

that these days you could make a book like this.

在現代做出這麼薄的通訊錄。

My rough calculation is it would be about 25 miles thick.

我粗略估計那會有 25 哩長。

But, of course, you couldn't do it,

但當然地，你不可能完成它，

because we don't know the names of all the people

因為我們不知道所有 網路或電子信箱擁有者的名字，

with Internet or email addresses,

因為我們不知道所有 網路或電子信箱擁有者的名字，

and even if we did know their names,

而即使我們知道了名字，

I'm pretty sure that they would not want their name,

我很確定大家並不希望他們的名字、

address and telephone number published to everyone.

信箱、以及電話號碼 被公開。

So the fact is that there's a lot of bad guys on the Internet these days,

所以結果就是現今的網路中 有許多壞人，

and so we dealt with that by making

因此我們藉由許多機制來面對， 這包含：

walled communities,

有防火牆的社群、

secure subnetworks, VPNs,

安全子網路、虛擬私人網路，

little things that aren't really the Internet

一些小方法， 它們並不真的是網際網路

but are made out of the same building blocks,

卻都建構於 先前所提的構成要素，

but we're still basically building it out of those

但我們基本上還是用那些構成要素，

same building blocks with those same assumptions of trust.

以及那些信任感的前提， 來建構網路。

And that means that it's vulnerable

而這表示當面對

to certain kinds of mistakes that can happen,

某些可能發生的錯誤，

or certain kinds of deliberate attacks,

或是某些蓄意的攻擊時， 它是脆弱的，

but even the mistakes can be bad.

但只是錯誤也可以變得很糟糕。

So, for instance,

所以，舉例來說，

in all of Asia recently,

最近在整個亞洲，

it was impossible to get YouTube for a little while

使用 YouTube 是幾乎不可能的，

because Pakistan made some mistakes

因為巴基斯坦在為內部網路 審查 YouTube 時

in how it was censoring YouTube in its internal network.

發生了些錯誤。

They didn't intend to screw up Asia, but they did

他們並不希望把亞洲網路搞亂， 但是他們還做了，

because of the way that the protocols work.

這歸咎於網路協定的運作方式。

Another example that may have affected many of you in this audience is,

另一個可能影響在座於多人的是，

you may remember a couple of years ago,

你可能記得幾年之前，

all the planes west of the Mississippi were grounded

所有密西西比河以西的飛機 都停飛了，

because a single routing card in Salt Lake City

因為一塊鹽湖城的路由卡中

had a bug in it.

有一個小錯誤。

Now, you don't really think

現在，你並不真的認為

that our airplane system depends on the Internet,

我們的飛航系統必須仰賴網路，

and in some sense it doesn't.

而某些角度來說並不是的。

I'll come back to that later.

我等等再回來談這個。

But the fact is that people couldn't take off

但事實就是人們沒辦法讓飛機起飛，

because something was going wrong on the Internet,

因為網路出了錯，

and the router card was down.

而那張路由卡停止運作。

And so, there are many of those things that start to happen.

因此，許多這類的事情開始發生。

Now, there was an interesting thing that happened last April.

嗯，有件有趣的事發生在去年四月。

All of a sudden,

剎那之間，

a very large percentage of the traffic on the whole Internet,

非常大量的流量，佔滿整個網際網路，

including a lot of the traffic between U.S. military installations,

還包含了美國軍方各裝置間的網路，

started getting re-routed through China.

並開始重新導向到中國。

So for a few hours, it all passed through China.

所以有幾個小時，這流量在中國流通。

Now, China Telecom says it was just an honest mistake,

而現在，中國電信說那只是一個純然的錯誤，

and it is actually possible that it was, the way things work,

而那的確也有可能，由於網路的運作方式，

but certainly somebody could make

但是無礙地，有人可以做出

a dishonest mistake of that sort if they wanted to,

蓄意的那類錯誤，只要他們願意，

and it shows you how vulnerable the system is even to mistakes.

而這告訴你整個系統即使對於錯誤， 是多麼脆弱。

Imagine how vulnerable the system is to deliberate attacks.

再想想面對蓄意攻擊時， 會有多脆弱。

So if somebody really wanted to attack the United States

如果近期真的有人想要攻擊美國、

or Western civilization these days,

或是西方文明，

they're not going to do it with tanks.

他們並不會用訴諸坦克。

That will not succeed.

那將不會成功。

What they'll probably do is something

他們可能做的是某些

very much like the attack that happened

和伊朗核能裝置攻擊事件 非常類似的攻擊。

on the Iranian nuclear facility.

和依朗核能裝置攻擊事件 非常類似的攻擊。

Nobody has claimed credit for that.

沒人承認做了這件事。

There was basically a factory of industrial machines.

基本上就是有一個工廠的工業機械。

It didn't think of itself as being on the Internet.

沒人覺得它們會連在網路上。

It thought of itself as being disconnected from the Internet,

大家認為機器是和網際網路沒有通連的，

but it was possible for somebody to smuggle

但很有可能某人偷偷帶了

a USB drive in there, or something like that,

一個 USB 到那裡，或是類似的東西，

and software got in there that causes the centrifuges,

而軟體得以侵入並造成廠房離心機

in that case, to actually destroy themselves.

，在這個例子裡，自我破壞。

Now that same kind of software could destroy an oil refinery

而同一類的軟體也可以破壞石油精煉場、

or a pharmaceutical factory or a semiconductor plant.

或是製藥場、或是半導體工廠。

And so there's a lot of -- I'm sure you've read a lot in papers,

因此有很多，我相信你們在文獻中看到很多，

about worries about cyberattacks

關於網路攻擊的擔心、

and defenses against those.

或是如何去防衛。

But the fact is, people are mostly focused on

但事實上，人們主要關注於

defending the computers on the Internet,

防衛有連上網的電腦，

and there's been surprisingly little attention

而只有少到令人訝異的心力

to defending the Internet itself as a communications medium.

是用於防衛 當作通訊媒介的網路本身。

And I think we probably do need to pay

而我認為我們可能真的須要

some more attention to that, because it's actually kind of fragile.

更加關注這件事，因為 網路確實有些脆弱。

So actually, in the early days,

所以，事實上，前些日子，

back when it was the ARPANET,

回到 ARPANET 的時代， （譯註：ARPANET 為美國網際網路的前身。）

there were actually times -- there was a particular time it failed completely

實際上有好幾次，其中還有一次網路完全停擺，

because one single message processor

就因為一個訊息處理器

actually got a bug in it.

有些內部錯誤。

And the way the Internet works is

而網路運作的方式是

the routers are basically exchanging information

不同路由器基本上會交換資訊，

about how they can get messages to places,

這資訊是關於 如何將訊息傳到目的地，

and this one processor, because of a broken card,

而這一個出錯的處理器， 因為一張損壞的電路板

decided it could actually get a message

而決定它會在一個時間為負數的時刻

to some place in negative time.

來傳遞訊息。

So, in other words, it claimed it could deliver a message before you sent it.

所以，也就是說，它宣聲它可以 在你傳出訊息前就把訊息傳出去。

So of course, the fastest way to get a message anywhere

當然地，最快傳播訊息的方法

was to send it to this guy,

就是把訊息傳給這個人，

who would send it back in time and get it there super early,

他可以準時回傳訊息並在 「超早」的時間點送達訊息，

so every message in the Internet

所以網路上的每個訊息

started getting switched through this one node,

漸漸開始想藉由這個節點 來交換訊息，

and of course that clogged everything up.

而當然網路就塞爆了。

Everything started breaking.

所有通路開始攤瘓。

The interesting thing was, though,

而儘管如此，有趣的是

that the sysadmins were able to fix it,

系統管理員是有辦法修正這個錯誤的，

but they had to basically turn every single thing on the Internet off.

但他們基本上必須暫停 網路上每一個傳輸任務。

Now, of course you couldn't do that today.

嗯，當然，在今日你不可能這麼做。

I mean, everything off, it's like

我的意思是，暫停每個傳輸任務 就像是

the service call you get from the cable company,

整個世界裡你只接得到

except for the whole world.

電纜公司的服務電話一般。

Now, in fact, they couldn't do it for a lot of reasons today.

實際上，今日的社會裡， 他們還有很多原因不能這麼做。

One of the reasons is a lot of their telephones

其中一個原因是許多人的電話

use IP protocol and use things like Skype and so on

是使用 IP 協定並使用 Skype 之類的軟體，

that go through the Internet right now,

而這些軟體是藉由網路傳輸訊息的，

and so in fact we're becoming dependent on it

所以我們開始在愈來愈多的事務上，

for more and more different things,

漸漸和網路分不開，

like when you take off from LAX,

就像是當你從洛山機國際機場起飛，

you're really not thinking you're using the Internet.

你不會認為你正在使用網路。

When you pump gas, you really don't think you're using the Internet.

當你在加油時，你更不認為你用有到網路。

What's happening increasingly, though, is these systems

然而這些系統中，正加速發生的

are beginning to use the Internet.

就是開始使用網路的這個事實。

Most of them aren't based on the Internet yet,

它們大部份還沒架構於網路之上，

but they're starting to use the Internet for service functions,

但他們正開始將網路用於 各種服務、

for administrative functions,

以及管理功能，

and so if you take something like the cell phone system,

所以如果你以手機系統， 這種多數時候還與網路較無關聯的事物為例，

which is still relatively independent of the Internet for the most part,

所以如果你以手機系統， 這種多數時候還與網路較無關聯的事物為例，

Internet pieces are beginning to sneak into it

網路已經開始 由某些控制及管理等功能

in terms of some of the control and administrative functions,

潛入其中，

and it's so tempting to use these same building blocks

而使用同樣的建構要素， 是那麼誘人，

because they work so well, they're cheap,

因為它們運作得很理想，它們便宜，

they're repeated, and so on.

他們可以重覆利用，等等。

So all of our systems, more and more,

所以我們所有的系統，愈來愈多，

are starting to use the same technology

開始使用這同一項科技

and starting to depend on this technology.

且開始依賴這項科技。

And so even a modern rocket ship these days

因此就算是現代的火箭

actually uses Internet protocol to talk

實際上也使用網際網路來做

from one end of the rocket ship to the other.

兩火箭之間的通訊。

That's crazy. It was never designed to do things like that.

這很瘋狂。網路並不是為了這個設計的。

So we've built this system

所以我們已經建構這個系統，

where we understand all the parts of it,

在這系統中我們了解每一個部份，

but we're using it in a very, very different way than we expected to use it,

但我們使用的方法 完完全全超出我們預設的模式，

and it's gotten a very, very different scale

而它已經到了和一個原本設計 非常非常不一樣的境界。

than it was designed for.

而它已經到了和一個原本設計 非常非常不一樣的境界。

And in fact, nobody really exactly understands

而實際上，沒有人真正完全了解

all the things it's being used for right now.

現今用到的所有網路科技。

It's turning into one of these big emergent systems

它已經變成眾多巨大不穩定系統 的其中之一，

like the financial system, where we've designed all the parts

好比說是經濟體系，我們設計了它的每一個部份

but nobody really exactly understands

但是根本沒有人完全了解

how it operates and all the little details of it

它怎麼運作、 它的所有小細節、

and what kinds of emergent behaviors it can have.

以及可能會有什麼意外事故。

And so if you hear an expert talking about the Internet

因此如果你聽到一個專家在談論網路

and saying it can do this, or it does do this, or it will do that,

並聲稱它可以做這事、或是它確實做了這事、 又或者它將可以做這事，

you should treat it with the same skepticism

你應該要抱持同樣的懷疑，

that you might treat the comments of an economist about the economy

就是那種面對經濟專家談論經濟時 會有的懷疑

or a weatherman about the weather, or something like that.

或是面對預報員報氣象時的懷疑， 或是類似的事。

They have an informed opinion,

他們有有根據的主張，

but it's changing so quickly that even the experts

但它瞬息萬變，即使是專家學者

don't know exactly what's going on.

也不完全了解全盤的運作。

So if you see one of these maps of the Internet,

所以如果你見到一些網路地圖，

it's just somebody's guess.

那不過是某人的猜測而已。

Nobody really knows what the Internet is right now

沒人真的知道現在的網路是什麼樣子

because it's different than it was an hour ago.

因為它和一小時之前的樣子 就已經不一樣了。

It's constantly changing. It's constantly reconfiguring.

它持續地改變中。 也持續地改變設定。

And the problem with it is,

而問題是，

I think we are setting ourselves up for a kind of disaster

我想我們正在把自己置於災難之中

like the disaster we had in the financial system,

就像是我們在經濟體系裡面臨的災難一般，

where we take a system that's basically built on trust,

那也是一個類似的系統， 它基本上建構於信任之上、

was basically built for a smaller-scale system,

它基本上也是為小規模的系統而建立、

and we've kind of expanded it way beyond the limits

而我們同樣有點把它擴張 並超過

of how it was meant to operate.

它原先預定運作的極限。

And so right now, I think it's literally true

所以現在，我想它是對的，

that we don't know what the consequences

就是說我們並不知道 當網路遇到

of an effective denial-of-service attack

有效的阻斷服務攻擊時

on the Internet would be,

會是什麼樣子，

and whatever it would be is going to be worse next year,

而不論怎樣的結果 都將會一年

and worse next year, and so on.

比一年更糟。

But so what we need is a plan B.

所以我們須要 B 計劃。

There is no plan B right now.

現今並沒有這項替代計劃。

There's no clear backup system that we've very carefully kept

也沒有明顯的備援系統， 讓我們得以小心地

to be independent of the Internet,

避免對網路的依賴，

made out of completely different sets of building blocks.

就是那個已經和原本建構理念 完全不一樣的網路系統。

So what we need is something that doesn't necessarily

所以我們所須要的是

have to have the performance of the Internet,

某種不見得須要網路、

but the police department has to be able

而警察局得以在沒有網路的情況下

to call up the fire department even without the Internet,

也可以和消防局通聯、

or the hospitals have to order fuel oil.

且醫院也可以訂購燃油。

This doesn't need to be a multi-billion-dollar government project.

這並不須要一個 數十億美元的政府計劃。

It's actually relatively simple to do, technically,

這實際上是相對來說簡單的， 技術上來說，

because it can use existing fibers that are in the ground,

因為可以利用 現有那些埋在地裡的光纖、

existing wireless infrastructure.

現有的無線網路設施。

It's basically a matter of deciding to do it.

這基本上只是 有沒有決心要做的問題。

But people won't decide to do it

但人們在體認到對這計劃的需求前，

until they recognize the need for it,

根本不會下定決心去做，

and that's the problem that we have right now.

而這才是我們現在所面臨的問題。

So there's been plenty of people,

所以有一群人、

plenty of us have been quietly arguing

一群我們的伙伴 已經默默地主張

that we should have this independent system for years,

「我們應該要有有獨立的系統」許多年，

but it's very hard to get people focused on plan B

但要人們專注於 B 計劃是非常困難的，

when plan A seems to be working so well.

尤其是當 A 計劃看起來是這麼完美的情況下。

So I think that, if people understand

所以我在想，如果人們能理解

how much we're starting to depend on the Internet,

我們對網路的依賴有多深、

and how vulnerable it is,

以及網路有多脆弱，

we could get focused on

我們就可以專注於

just wanting this other system to exist,

對其它系統存在的渴望，

and I think if enough people say, "Yeah, I would like to use it,

而我想如果有足夠的人說： 「對，我想要使用它，

I'd like to have such a system," then it will get built.

我想要有這樣的一個系統。」那它就會實現。

It's not that hard a problem.

這不是那麼困難的問題。

It could definitely be done by people in this room.

這當然可以靠在座的各位來完成。

And so I think that this is actually,

所以我想這實際上，

of all the problems you're going to hear about at the conference,

在所有你在這次會議會聽到的議題之中，

this is probably one of the very easiest to fix.

這也許是最容易解決的一個。

So I'm happy to get a chance to tell you about it.

所以我很高興有這個機會來告訴你們。

Thank you very much.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）