Danny Hillis: The Internet could crash. We need a Plan B

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Gang Hu 校对人员: Gao Begon

So, this book that I have in my hand

呃，我手里的这本书

is a directory of everybody who had an email address

是1982年所有拥有电邮地址的人的通讯录。

in 1982. (Laughter)

（笑声）

Actually, it's deceptively large.

它看起来很大，其实不然。

There's actually only about 20 people on each page,

这本通讯录实际上每页只记录了大约20个人，

because we have the name, address

因为我们每一个人都有自己的姓名，

and telephone number of every single person.

地址和电话号码。

And, in fact, everybody's listed twice,

同时，每个人的信息都出现了两次，

because it's sorted once by name and once by email address.

因为有两种排序方式：根据名字和根据电子邮件地址。

Obviously a very small community.

当然这是个很小的社区。

There were only two other Dannys on the Internet then.

当时，互联网上只有另外两个名字也叫丹尼的人。

I knew them both.

他们两个我都认识。

We didn't all know each other,

虽然我们彼此之间并不全都认识，

but we all kind of trusted each other,

但是我们互相信任，

and that basic feeling of trust

这种基本的信任感

permeated the whole network,

充满了整个网络，

and there was a real sense that

并且大家可以感觉到

we could depend on each other to do things.

我们能彼此信赖的去完成一些事情。

So just to give you an idea of the level of trust in this community,

因此，为了让你们能体会到当时该社区的那种信任程度，

let me tell you what it was like

下面让我来告诉你在早期

to register a domain name in the early days.

是如何注册域名的。

Now, it just so happened that I got to register

现在，假象我我刚注册了

the third domain name on the Internet.

我的第三个互联网域名。

So I could have anything I wanted

于是我可以起任何我想要的名字作为域名，

other than bbn.com and symbolics.com.

除了"bbn.com"和"symbolics.com"之外。

So I picked think.com, but then I thought,

于是我注册了"think.com"，但是我又想，

you know, there's a lot of really interesting names out there.

除此之外还有很多有趣的域名。

Maybe I should register a few extras just in case.

也许我应该多注册几个以备不时之需。

And then I thought, "Nah, that wouldn't be very nice."

我又想：“呐，这样不太好吧。”

(Laughter)

(笑声)

That attitude of only taking what you need

在那时，这种只取己需的态度

was really what everybody had on the network in those days,

在网络上几乎人人拥有，

and in fact, it wasn't just the people on the network,

而且事实上，不仅仅是使用网络的人有这种态度

but it was actually kind of built into the protocols

这种态度也植根于

of the Internet itself.

互联网协议自身。

So the basic idea of I.P., or Internet protocol,

所以，I.P.,或者互联网协议的基本思想，

and the way that the -- the routing algorithm that used it,

以及路由算法用到的工作方式，

were fundamentally "from each according to their ability,

从根本上来说是“各尽其能

to each according to their need."

各取所需。”

And so, if you had some extra bandwidth,

因此，如果你有额外的带宽，

you'd deliver a message for someone.

你代别人发送信息。

If they had some extra bandwidth, they would deliver a message for you.

如果他们也有额外的带宽，他们也可以代你发送信息。

You'd kind of depend on people to do that,

你将会逐渐依靠于他人才能来完成信息的交换，

and that was the building block.

而这就是构建的基石。

It was actually interesting that such a communist principle

有趣的是，虽然这样一个共产原则

was the basis of a system developed during the Cold War

居然是国防部在冷战期间开发的一个

by the Defense Department,

系统的核心，

but it obviously worked really well,

而很明显它的效果非常好，

and we all saw what happened with the Internet.

我们已经目睹了互联网发生的一切。

It was incredibly successful.

毋庸置疑，非常的成功。

In fact, it was so successful that there's no way

实际上，互联网如此成功，以至于如今你不可能

that these days you could make a book like this.

出版这样一本通讯录了。

My rough calculation is it would be about 25 miles thick.

我粗略计算，如果这本书出版出来将会有25英尺厚。

But, of course, you couldn't do it,

当然，你也做不不出来，

because we don't know the names of all the people

因为我们不知道所有上网人的名字，

with Internet or email addresses,

或者电子邮件地址，

and even if we did know their names,

即使我们知道他们的名字，

I'm pretty sure that they would not want their name,

我确信他们也不愿意将他们的名字，

address and telephone number published to everyone.

地址和电话号码公诸于众。

So the fact is that there's a lot of bad guys on the Internet these days,

事实是当今在互联网上有很多坏人，

and so we dealt with that by making

我们的应对方法是建立一个

walled communities,

封闭的社区，

secure subnetworks, VPNs,

安全子网，虚拟私有网，

little things that aren't really the Internet

以及类似于因特网但又不是因特网的工具，

but are made out of the same building blocks,

虽然他们拥有相同的构建原理，

but we're still basically building it out of those

但是我们构建他们并不完全照搬因特网的构建基本原理，

same building blocks with those same assumptions of trust.

而是基于与因特网一样，对信任的假设。

And that means that it's vulnerable

这意味着这种网络易受到

to certain kinds of mistakes that can happen,

某种可能发生的某种错误的干扰

or certain kinds of deliberate attacks,

以及受某种蓄意的攻击，

but even the mistakes can be bad.

但是即使是错误，也会很麻烦。

So, for instance,

例如，

in all of Asia recently,

最近在亚洲的所有地区，

it was impossible to get YouTube for a little while

有一小段时间不能访问YouTube

because Pakistan made some mistakes

是因为巴基斯坦在其内部网络审查YouTube的方法上

in how it was censoring YouTube in its internal network.

犯了一些错误。

They didn't intend to screw up Asia, but they did

他们无意于在亚洲墙掉Youtube，但由于的协议工作方式，

because of the way that the protocols work.

他们确实短时间内阻断了Youtube。

Another example that may have affected many of you in this audience is,

另一个可能会影响很多在座听众的例子是，

you may remember a couple of years ago,

你可能还记得在数年前，

all the planes west of the Mississippi were grounded

密西西比州西部的所有飞机停航了，

because a single routing card in Salt Lake City

是因为盐湖城的一个路由卡

had a bug in it.

出现了问题。

Now, you don't really think

你当然不会认为

that our airplane system depends on the Internet,

飞机系统依赖于因特网，

and in some sense it doesn't.

在某种意义上它确实不依靠因特网。

I'll come back to that later.

稍后我会再谈到这一点。

But the fact is that people couldn't take off

事实是人们不能起飞，

because something was going wrong on the Internet,

是因为互联网出了某种问题，

and the router card was down.

路由卡宕机了。

And so, there are many of those things that start to happen.

许多类似的事情在不断的发生。

Now, there was an interesting thing that happened last April.

去年四月发生了一件有趣的事情。

All of a sudden,

突然，

a very large percentage of the traffic on the whole Internet,

整个互联网上相当大量的流量，

including a lot of the traffic between U.S. military installations,

包括美国军方网络的很多流量，

started getting re-routed through China.

开始通过中国改道发送。

So for a few hours, it all passed through China.

在数小时内，这些流量经由中国。

Now, China Telecom says it was just an honest mistake,

中国电信声称这并非有意为之，

and it is actually possible that it was, the way things work,

很可能确实如此，事实就是这样

but certainly somebody could make

但毫无疑问的是如果有人

a dishonest mistake of that sort if they wanted to,

蓄意这样做，那也很容易。

and it shows you how vulnerable the system is even to mistakes.

这表明在面临错误时，系统是如何脆弱。

Imagine how vulnerable the system is to deliberate attacks.

顾设想面临蓄意攻击时，系统该是多么脆弱啊。

So if somebody really wanted to attack the United States

现在，如果有人蓄意攻击美国

or Western civilization these days,

或者西方社会，

they're not going to do it with tanks.

他们不会采用坦克。

That will not succeed.

当然这样做也不会成功。

What they'll probably do is something

他们可能采取的行动

very much like the attack that happened

会非常类似于针对伊朗核设施

on the Iranian nuclear facility.

发动的攻击。

Nobody has claimed credit for that.

没有人会声称对此负责。

There was basically a factory of industrial machines.

基本上那只是一个制造工业机器的工厂。

It didn't think of itself as being on the Internet.

它自己不会认为自己在互联网上。

It thought of itself as being disconnected from the Internet,

它自己认为自己是与互联网隔离的，

but it was possible for somebody to smuggle

但是有可能有人

a USB drive in there, or something like that,

偷偷带进了一个U盘或类似U盘的东西，

and software got in there that causes the centrifuges,

和软件潜入工厂，让工厂里的离心分离机

in that case, to actually destroy themselves.

自毁。

Now that same kind of software could destroy an oil refinery

由于当今有类似的软件可以摧毁一家炼油厂，

or a pharmaceutical factory or a semiconductor plant.

制药厂，或者半导体工厂。

And so there's a lot of -- I'm sure you've read a lot in papers,

所以人们不免有许多--我相信你们在报纸上也看了很多，

about worries about cyberattacks

有关网络攻击

and defenses against those.

和对网络攻击的防御的担忧.

But the fact is, people are mostly focused on

但事实上，人们主要着眼于

defending the computers on the Internet,

联网电脑的保护，

and there's been surprisingly little attention

反而极少关注

to defending the Internet itself as a communications medium.

作为通讯介质的互联网本身的保护。

And I think we probably do need to pay

我认为我们需要更多的

some more attention to that, because it's actually kind of fragile.

关注这一点，因为互联网是脆弱的。

So actually, in the early days,

事实上，在早期，

back when it was the ARPANET,

在阿帕网年代，

there were actually times -- there was a particular time it failed completely

事实上确实有发生过一次整个网络完全宕掉了一段时间的情况，

because one single message processor

原因是某个单一信息处理器

actually got a bug in it.

有问题。

And the way the Internet works is

互联网的工作方式是

the routers are basically exchanging information

路由器交换的讯息从根本上来说

about how they can get messages to places,

是关于它们如何将信息发送到指定的位置，

and this one processor, because of a broken card,

因为一张坏卡，这个处理器

decided it could actually get a message

认为它实际上可以在负时间内

to some place in negative time.

将信息送到某地方。

So, in other words, it claimed it could deliver a message before you sent it.

换句话说，它声称它可以在接收一条信息之前就发送。

So of course, the fastest way to get a message anywhere

因此，显然，最快的接收任何地方信息的方式就是

was to send it to this guy,

将信息发给这个处理器，

who would send it back in time and get it there super early,

他会及时地送回并且超早地送达，

so every message in the Internet

因此互联网上的每条信息

started getting switched through this one node,

开始通过这个节点交换，

and of course that clogged everything up.

理所当然的会堵塞。

Everything started breaking.

一切开始中断。

The interesting thing was, though,

尽管如此，有趣的是，

that the sysadmins were able to fix it,

系统管理员可以解决这个问题，

but they had to basically turn every single thing on the Internet off.

但是基本上他们必须关掉所有的互联网。

Now, of course you couldn't do that today.

当然现在不可能这样做。

I mean, everything off, it's like

我的意思是，关掉一切，有点像

the service call you get from the cable company,

整个世界你只接得到

except for the whole world.

有线电视公司打给你的服务电话。

Now, in fact, they couldn't do it for a lot of reasons today.

现在，事实上，由于一些原因，他们不能做到这一点。

One of the reasons is a lot of their telephones

其中一个原因是他们的电话

use IP protocol and use things like Skype and so on

采用IP协议，并且使用像Skype之类的

that go through the Internet right now,

通过互联网通讯的工具，

and so in fact we're becoming dependent on it

事实上，我们越来越依赖于它，

for more and more different things,

去做越来越多不同的事情，

like when you take off from LAX,

比如，当你当你从洛杉矶起飞，

you're really not thinking you're using the Internet.

你不会认为你在使用互联网。

When you pump gas, you really don't think you're using the Internet.

当你加气时，你也不会认为你在使用互联网。

What's happening increasingly, though, is these systems

但是，渐渐发生的却是这些系统

are beginning to use the Internet.

开始逐渐使用互联网。

Most of them aren't based on the Internet yet,

大部分还不是基于互联网，

but they're starting to use the Internet for service functions,

但是他们开始使用互联网类提供服务功能，

for administrative functions,

和行政功能，

and so if you take something like the cell phone system,

因此如果你需要类似于电话系统的东西，

which is still relatively independent of the Internet for the most part,

它现在大部分仍然相对的独立于互联网，

Internet pieces are beginning to sneak into it

互联网势力正在开始以一些控制和行政

in terms of some of the control and administrative functions,

功能的方式侵入电话系统，

and it's so tempting to use these same building blocks

而且基于同样构建的网络手机系统显得是那么的诱人，

because they work so well, they're cheap,

因为他们运作良好，廉价，

they're repeated, and so on.

他们可以重复，等等。

So all of our systems, more and more,

因此我们的系统，越来越多地，

are starting to use the same technology

开始使用相同的技术

and starting to depend on this technology.

并且开始依赖于这种技术。

And so even a modern rocket ship these days

因此即使是现代装备火箭的船舰

actually uses Internet protocol to talk

如今也事实上使用互联网协议

from one end of the rocket ship to the other.

与其他的舰船联系。

That's crazy. It was never designed to do things like that.

这太疯狂了。互联网最初的设计宗旨肯定不是这个。

So we've built this system

所以我们建造了这个系统，

where we understand all the parts of it,

我们虽然了解这个系统的所有部分，

but we're using it in a very, very different way than we expected to use it,

但是我们以一种不同于预期的非常不同的方式在使用它，

and it's gotten a very, very different scale

而它的规模也与设计

than it was designed for.

大相径庭。

And in fact, nobody really exactly understands

事实上，没有人真正完全了解

all the things it's being used for right now.

所有这些如今使用的东西。

It's turning into one of these big emergent systems

它正在成为像财政系统这么大的一个应急系统，

like the financial system, where we've designed all the parts

在这个应急系统中我们已经设计好所有部分，

but nobody really exactly understands

但没有人真正了解

how it operates and all the little details of it

它的运作方式，它的所有细节，

and what kinds of emergent behaviors it can have.

以及它能有怎样的应急行为。

And so if you hear an expert talking about the Internet

所以，如果你听到一个专家谈论互联网，

and saying it can do this, or it does do this, or it will do that,

提起它能做这个，它这样做或者它将会做什么，

you should treat it with the same skepticism

你应该持怀疑态度，

that you might treat the comments of an economist about the economy

就像你怀疑一个经济学家对经济的评论

or a weatherman about the weather, or something like that.

怀疑一个气象员的天气播报，等类似的行为一样。

They have an informed opinion,

虽然这些专家们见多识广，

but it's changing so quickly that even the experts

但是互联网发展得如此迅速，以至于专家们

don't know exactly what's going on.

也不能确切地知道将会发生了什么事。

So if you see one of these maps of the Internet,

所以如果你看到一些互联网宏图，

it's just somebody's guess.

它们只是某人的猜测而已。

Nobody really knows what the Internet is right now

没人真正知道互联网如今是什么，

because it's different than it was an hour ago.

因为它每个小时都不一样，

It's constantly changing. It's constantly reconfiguring.

它在不断的在变化，不断的在重新配置。

And the problem with it is,

而问题在于，

I think we are setting ourselves up for a kind of disaster

我认为，我们正在将我们自己置于类似于

like the disaster we had in the financial system,

金融风暴那样的灾难之上，

where we take a system that's basically built on trust,

在金融系统中我们采用了一个基于信任建立的系统，

was basically built for a smaller-scale system,

该系统只是一个小规模的系统，

and we've kind of expanded it way beyond the limits

我们已经扩展了该系统，且超出了

of how it was meant to operate.

该系统运作的极限。

And so right now, I think it's literally true

因此，我认为，

that we don't know what the consequences

我们不知道互联网

of an effective denial-of-service attack

收到一个有效的拒绝服务攻击的

on the Internet would be,

后果将会如何，

and whatever it would be is going to be worse next year,

而无论如何变化，它将会变得更糟，再过一年

and worse next year, and so on.

会更加糟糕，年复一年，越来越糟。

But so what we need is a plan B.

于是就是我们需要一个B计划。

There is no plan B right now.

但是目前没有B计划。

There's no clear backup system that we've very carefully kept

不存在一个我们谨慎的让它独立于互联网之外的

to be independent of the Internet,

明确的备份系统，

made out of completely different sets of building blocks.

该系统是由完全不同的构件所建立。

So what we need is something that doesn't necessarily

因此我们需要的系统并不一定

have to have the performance of the Internet,

必须有因特网的功能，

but the police department has to be able

但是，即使在没有互联网的情况下，

to call up the fire department even without the Internet,

警察部门必须能够呼叫消防部门，

or the hospitals have to order fuel oil.

或者医院可以订购燃油。

This doesn't need to be a multi-billion-dollar government project.

这不是那种花费数十亿美金的政府项目。

It's actually relatively simple to do, technically,

从技术上讲，这个项目非常简单，

because it can use existing fibers that are in the ground,

因为他可以利用地下已有的无线基础架构-

existing wireless infrastructure.

光纤。

It's basically a matter of deciding to do it.

这不过是个简单的决定。

But people won't decide to do it

但是直到人民意识到真正的需要，

until they recognize the need for it,

才会决定去做，

and that's the problem that we have right now.

这就是现在的问题所在。

So there's been plenty of people,

因此大量的人，

plenty of us have been quietly arguing

大量的专家们多年来一直在静静地争论

that we should have this independent system for years,

我们应该有这么一套独立的系统，

but it's very hard to get people focused on plan B

但很难让人们在互联网运行良好时，

when plan A seems to be working so well.

去关注B计划。

So I think that, if people understand

因此我认为，如果人们认识到

how much we're starting to depend on the Internet,

我们逐渐有多么地依赖互联网，

and how vulnerable it is,

互联网是多么的脆弱，

we could get focused on

我们能够着眼于

just wanting this other system to exist,

希望这样的系统存在，

and I think if enough people say, "Yeah, I would like to use it,

并且我认为，如果足够多的人说：”是的，我想使用它，

I'd like to have such a system," then it will get built.

我愿意有这样一个系统”，它就会得以建立。

It's not that hard a problem.

这不是一个难题，

It could definitely be done by people in this room.

甚至可以由在座的某位完成。

And so I think that this is actually,

因此我认为，实际上，

of all the problems you're going to hear about at the conference,

在会议上将会听到的所有问题，

this is probably one of the very easiest to fix.

极有可能存在一种非常容易的解决方案。

So I'm happy to get a chance to tell you about it.

我很高兴有机会告诉你们这一点。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

(掌声)