George Dyson: Let's take a nuclear-powered rocket to Saturn

Prevodilac: Radina Matic Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm a historian.

Ja sam istoričar.

Steve told us about the future of little technology;

Stiv nam je pričao o budućnosti "sitne" tehnologije;

I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.

Ja ću vam prikazati deo prošlosti velike tehnologije.

This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship

Reč je o projektu kojim bi svemirski brod od 4000 tona nuklearne snage

and go to Saturn and Jupiter.

stigao na Saturn i Jupiter.

This took place in my childhood, 1957-65.

Ovo se dešavalo još u doba mog detinjstva -- od 1957. do 1965.

It was deeply classified.

Projekat je bio strogo poverljiv.

I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,

Pričamo o nečemu što ne samo da nije opozvano kao državna tajna,

but has now been reclassified.

već je ponovo postalo državna tajna.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

If all goes well, next year I'll be back,

Ako sve bude u redu, sledeće godine ću imati još više da vam ispričam,

and I'll have a lot more to show you, and if all doesn't go well,

ako ne završim u zatvoru kao Ven Ho Li.

I'll be in jail, like Wen Ho Lee.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,

Dakle, reč je o letelici veličine hotela Mariot,

a little taller and a little bigger.

štaviše, nešto višoj i nešto dužoj.

And one of the people who worked on it at the beginning

Jedna od osoba koje su na njoj radili na početku

was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.

je bio moj otac, Frimen, ovde u sredini.

That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.

Na slici smo ja i moja sestra, Ester, koja je čest posetilac TED susreta.

I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.

Ja nisam specijalno voleo svemirske brodove na nuklearni pogon.

I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.

Mislim, bila je to dobra ideja, ali ja sam počeo da pravim kajake.

So we had a few kayaks.

Imali smo nekoliko kajaka.

Just so you know that I am not Dr. Strangelove.

Čisto da znate, nisam Dr. Čudoljub (Dr. Strangelove).

But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages

Ali sve vreme dok sam bio na raznim putovanjima kajakom

in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,

na čudnim, prelepim delovima ove planete,

I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,

uvek sam u pozadini razmišljao o Projektu Orion,

and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.

i kako su moj otac i njegovi prijatelji pravili te velike svemirske brodove.

They were actually going to go --

Oni su stvarno bili spremni da odu, da zaista odu.

Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.

Ted Tejlor, vođa projekta, je hteo da povede i svoju decu.

My father was not going to take his children,

Moj otac nije imao nameru da nas povede;

i to je bio jedan od razloga što skoro nismo pričali nekoliko godina.

that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Projekat je započet 1957. ovde u Dženeral Atomiksu.

The project began in '57 at General Atomics there,

that's right on the coast at La Jolla.

To je tačno na obali mora u La Hoji (u San Dijegu).

Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture.

Pogledajte centralnu zgradu u sredini ove slike:

to je biblioteka prečnika oko 40 metara,

That's the 130-foot diameter library.

That is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.

što je bila tačno veličina baze svemirskog broda.

So put that library at the bottom of that ship --

Sad zamislite tu biblioteku na dnu letelice --

that's how big the thing was going to be.

tačno toliko velika je trebalo da bude.

It would take two or three thousand bombs.

Zahtevala bi oko 2000 ili 3000 bombi.

The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people

Na ovom projektu je radilo i dosta onih koji su

who had done the hydrogen bomb work.

u Los Alamosu napravili hidrogensku bombu.

It was the first project funded by ARPA.

To je bio prvi projekat agencije ARPA.

That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars

Ovo je ugovor kojim ARPA daje prvih milion dolara

to get this thing started.

da se započne projekat.

"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."

"Projekat svemirskog broda je zvanično počeo. Posao te očekuje. Dajson."

That's July '58.

To je bilo u julu 1958.

Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --

Dva dana kasnije, u dokumentu zvanom "Manifest svemirskog putnika" se objašnjava

-- slično onome što smo čuli juče -- zašto je potrebno da idemo u svemir:

just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:

"... trips to satellites of the outer planets.

"putovanja na satelite drugih planeta. 20. avgust 1958."

August 20, 1958."

These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop.

Ovo su statistički podaci o mestima pogodnim za stanice na putu . (Smeh)

Some of the sizes of the ships,

Nekoliko mogućih dimenzija brodova,

ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons.

sve do jednog koji bi bio težak 8 miliona tona,

dakle to je bila krajnja granica.

So that was the outer extreme.

Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.

Ovo je druga verzija: 2000 bombi.

These are five-kiloton yield bombs, about the size of small Volkswagens;

Ovo su bombe snage 5 kilotona i veličine omanjeg Volksvagena;

Bilo bi potrebno 800 takvih da se letelica podigne u orbitu.

it would take 800 to get into orbit.

Here we see a 10,000-ton ship will deliver 1,300 tons

Ovde vidimo brod od 10 kilotona

koji bi poneo 1300 tona do Saturna i nazad;

to Saturn and back -- essentially, a five-year trip.

to bi bio put od 5 godina.

Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967.

Mogući datumi poletanja: od oktobra 1960. do februara 1967. (Smeh)

These are trajectories going to Mars.

Ovo je trajektorija puta do Marsa;

All this was done by hand, with slide rules.

sve je crtano rukom i uz pomoć lenjira.

The little Orion ship,

Mali brod Orion

i šta bi sve bilo potrebno da brod kao Orion poleti:

and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:

you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.

jer reč je o brodu veličine Empajer Stejt Bildinga.

NASA nije bila zainteresovana; pokušali su da prekinu projekat.

NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.

Ljudi koji su dali podršku su bili iz Er Forsa (Vojno Vazduhoplovstvo),

The people who supported it were the Air Force,

što je značilo da je sve bilo velika tajna.

which meant that it was all secret.

I zato kad sa nečega skinete oznaku "vojna tajna",

And that's why when you get something declassified, that's what it looks like.

to izgleda ovako. (Smeh)

Military weapon versions that carried hydrogen bombs

Jer u pitanju su bile vojne bombe, hidrogenske bombe

koje su mogle da unište pola planete.

that could destroy half the planet.

There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.

Postojala je i verzija kojom se izvodi kazneni napad na Sovjetski Savez.

This is the really secret stuff:

Reč je o velikim tajnama: kako ostvariti direktnu eksploziju

how to get directed energy explosions.

So you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --

i pokrenuti energiju nuklearne eksplozije --

not like just a stick of dynamite, but you're directing it at the ship.

što nije isto kao štap dinamita,

i pokrenuti je u pravcu letelice.

And this is still a very active subject.

Sve ovo je još uvek aktuelna tema.

It's quite dangerous,

Jeste vrlo opasno, ali ja verujem

but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open

da je bolje da opasne teme budu javne

than think you're going to keep them secret.

nego da se drže u tajnosti.

This is what happened at 600 microseconds.

Ovo se desilo u 600 mikrosekundi.

Er Fors je stvarno počeo da gradi manje modele.

The Air Force started to build smaller models

and actually started doing this.

The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."

Ljudi iz La Hoje su rekli: "Moramo ovo da počnemo odmah."

They built a high-explosive propelled model.

Napravili su model koji se pokreće pomoću eksploziva.

These are stills from film footage that was saved

Ove slike su iz filma koji je neko sačuvao

by someone who was supposed to destroy it but didn't,

trebalo je da ga uništi ali nije

i čuvao ga je u podrumu tokom poslednjih 40 godina.

and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.

Znači to su paketi od kilogram i po eksploziva C4;

So, these are three-pound charges of C4;

that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes.

to je otprilike 10 puta više od onoga što je onaj tip imao u cipelama. (Smeh).

(Laughter)

This is Ed Day putting --

Ed Dej koji postavlja ove "konzerve" od kojih svaka ima po kilo i po eksploziva u sebi.

So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.

They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.

Napravili su sistem koji ih izbacuje 4 puta u sekundi.

That's my dad in the sport coat there, holding the briefcase.

Ovaj u sportskoj jakni što drži aktovku je moj otac.

So, they had a lot of fun doing this.

Oni su se bas fino zabavljali gradeći ovo. Nažalost, deci nije bio dozvoljen pristup;

But no children were allowed;

tata je mogao da mi kaže da pravi svemirski brod

my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship and going to go to Saturn,

i da ide na Saturn

but he could not say anything more about it.

ali nije mogao da kaže ništa više.

So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,

Celog života sam hteo da otkrijem nešto o ovome,

and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.

i proveo sam prethodne 4 godine u potrazi za ovim matorcima.

Ovo su kadrovi iz filma za koji je juče

These are stills from the video.

Džef Bezos ljubazno rekao da će ga

Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said he'll put this video up

on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it.

postaviti na sajt Amazon -- barem jedan deo. (Aplauz)

(Applause)

Hvala Džefu.

So, thanks to him.

They got quite serious about the engineering of this.

Bili su vrlo ozbiljni u izgradnji ovog projekta.

Dimenzije o kojima pričamo su za nas i dalje vrlo velike

The size of that mass, for us,

is really large technology in a way we're never going to go back to.

i teško da ćemo ikad da se vratimo na sličnu zamisao.

If you saw the 1959 --

Ovakav bi bio osećaj u putničkoj kabini;

this is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;

that's acceleration profile.

to je kriva profila ubrzanja. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

And pulse-system yield: we're looking at 20-kiloton yield

I rezultat propulsivnog sistema:

Ovde vidimo rezultat snage od 20 kilotona koji bi imao efekat od 10 miliona njutna.

for an effective thrust of 10 million newtons.

Well, here we have a little problem, the radiation doses at the crew station:

Ovo je bio mali problem,

doza radijacije u kabini posade: 700 rada po udaru. (Smeh)

700 rads per shot.

(Laughter)

Fission yields during development:

Rezultati fisije tokom razvoja projekta:

they were hoping to get clean bombs; they didn't.

nameravali su da naprave čistu bombu - nisu uspeli.

Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up.

Opekotine na očima: ovo se dešava onima u Majamiju kad gledaju gore. (Smeh)

Nivo buke u putničkoj kabini: to nije bilo loše;

(Laughter)

Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad; it's very low frequencies,

frekvencija je niska, otprilike kao ovi zvučnici.

it's basically like these sub-woofers.

And now we have ground-hazard assessments when you have a blow-up on the pad.

A sad malo procene rizika na zemlji

ako recimo brod eksplodira na samoj platformi.

Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,

Tek krajem 1964. NASA uleti u igru i kaže: "U redu,

"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version

podržaćemo studiju izvodljivosti za malu letilicu

koja bi bila lansirana u delovima i potom sklopljena."

that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."

I to je ono što je NASA i uradila,

So this is what NASA did,

getting an eight-man version that would go to Mars.

napravila je verziju za 8 ljudi koja bi išla na Mars.

They liked it because the guys could kind of live there and be like,

To im se više svidelo jer bi se ljudi unutra osećali: "Hej, ovo je

kao da smo u podmornici."

"It's like living in a submarine."

Kabina za posadu. Ovde je sve naopačke tako da bi bilo

This is crew compartment.

It switches, so what's upside down is right side up

u pravom pravcu kad se uključi veštačka gravitacija.

when you go to artificial gravity mode.

I dalje je bio plan da naučnici putuju;

The scientists were still going to go along;

trebalo je da ide 7 astronauta i 7 naučnika.

they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.

Ovo je verzija za 20 putnika za Jupiter;

This is a 20-man version for going to Jupiter:

spavaonica, sklonište, sala za vežbe.

bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.

You know, it was going to be a nice, long trip.

Jer to bi bio lepo dugo putovanje.

The Air Force version: here we have a military version.

Verzija Er Forsa - verzija vojne letelice.

Ovi dokumenti su i dalje državna tajna

This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,

just that people managed to sneak home and after, you know,

samo što su ih neki ljudi krišom odneli kućama

on their deathbed, basically, gave me that.

i faktički mi ih predali pre smrti.

Ovde se vide i neki umetnički koncepti:

The sort of artist conceptions.

These are basically PowerPoint presentations

to su delovi neke vrste PowerPoint prezentacije

given to the Air Force 40 years ago.

urađene za Er Fors pre 40 godina.

Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.

Van letilice se čak vide i male ljudske figure.

And one part of NASA was interested in it,

Bilo je zainteresovanih i među ljudima iz NASA

but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.

ali je rukovodstvo bilo protiv i projekat je zaustavljen.

So finally, at the end,

Tako da na kraju, iako su se stvari

we can see the thing followed its sort of design path right up to 1965,

odvijale nekim predviđenim tokom sve do

1965. da bi se tek tada se sve zaustavilo.

and then all those paths came to a halt.

Results: none.

Rezultat: nikakav.

This project is hereby terminated.

Projekat je prekinut.

So that's the end.

I to je kraj. Sve što mogu da kažem kao zaključak je,

All I can say in closing is:

we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us

juće smo čuli da je jedna od 10 loših stvari koje mogu da nam se dese

is an asteroid with our name on it.

je da asteriod dobije ime po nama.

A jedna od loših stvari koje mogu da se dese NASA-i

And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA

is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out,

je da se taj asteroid sa našim imenom pojavi posle 9 meseci

and everybody says,

i onda svi kažu: "Uh, a šta ćemo sad?"

"Well, what are we going to do?"

Orion je jedna od retkih, ako ne i jedina

And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,

off-the-shelf technologies that could do something.

već spremna tehnologija koja bi bila od koristi. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.

Sad ću vam reći jednu dobru vest i jednu lošu vest.

The good news is that NASA has a small, secret contingency-plan division

Dobra vest je da NASA ima malu tajnu grupu koja se

bavi kritičnim situacijama zainteresovanu za ovo,

that is looking at this, trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved

i koja pokušava da sačuva stečeno znanje o Orionu u slučaju da prigusti.

in the event of such a misfortune.

Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.

Možda su sklonili nekolicinu plutonijumskih bombi negde sa strane.

That's the good news.

To je dobra vest. Loša vest je

The bad news is, when I got in contact with these people

da kad sam stupio u kontakt sa tim ljudima

to try and get some documents from them, they went crazy

da bih od njih dobio neku dokumentaciju,

poludeli su što sam ja bio u posedu dokumenata koje oni nemaju,

because I had all this stuff that they don't have,

and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me.

tako da je NASA otkupila od mene 1759 stranica o ovome. (Smeh)

So that's the state we're at; it's not very good.

Tako da tu smo, gde smo: ne piše nam se baš najbolje.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)