George Dyson: Let's take a nuclear-powered rocket to Saturn

譯者: 張新永 Davidchang 審譯者: Marie Wu

I'm a historian.

我是一個研究歷史的人，

Steve told us about the future of little technology;

史蒂夫不久前講了一些小科技未來可能的發展，

I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.

我則要告訴大家一個"大"科技的過去發展過程。

This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship

這個計畫是要建造一個以4000噸級核子彈推動的太空船，

and go to Saturn and Jupiter.

用來飛往土星和木星。

This took place in my childhood, 1957-65.

這件事情是發生在我小時候的事 -- 時間是在1957年到1965年之間，

It was deeply classified.

這計畫當時是高度機密。

I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,

所以我現在要給各位看的東西, 不僅至今還沒有被解密，

but has now been reclassified.

甚至現在還要再度被列為機密文件。

(Laughter)

(觀眾笑聲)

If all goes well, next year I'll be back,

如果一切順利的話，明年我會再回來這裡展示更多東西給各位看，

and I'll have a lot more to show you, and if all doesn't go well,

但如果情況不是那麼順利的話，我就會像李文和一樣被關起來了。（李文和因洩漏國家研究計畫內容入獄）

I'll be in jail, like Wen Ho Lee.

(Laughter)

觀眾笑聲

So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,

這艘太空船的大小和萬豪旅館(Marriott Hotel)差不多，

a little taller and a little bigger.

只稍高點，再稍大點。

And one of the people who worked on it at the beginning

有一個人從一開始就參與這個計畫，

was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.

那就是我老爹，弗利曼--就是照片中間那個人，

That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.

旁邊是我和我姐姐，Esther，她可是TED的常客...

I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.

我並不喜歡用核子彈推進的太空船,

I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.

但我認為建造物體航向未知倒是是好主意，所以我開始做皮艇。

So we had a few kayaks.

我有幾艘皮艇。

Just so you know that I am not Dr. Strangelove.

就如各位所知我不是奇愛博士(1964年一部敘述美國蘇聯間核戰電影的主角)，

But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages

但是每次我駕駛著這些外型奇特的皮艇，

in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,

航行在地球上最奇特美麗的地方時，

I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,

我內心深處總會想到這個獵戶座計畫，

and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.

並思考我爸和他的朋友們當時究竟打算如何建造這些大太空船。

They were actually going to go --

他們當時是玩真的，他們真的要搭太空船上太空。

Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.

像這個計畫的主持人，泰德•泰勒，他就打算帶他的孩子同行，

My father was not going to take his children,

我老爹可沒打算帶他的孩子們去。

這也是有幾年我們父子之間有點不爽的原因之一。

that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.

(Laughter)

(觀眾笑聲)

這計畫於1957年，在通用原子公司（General Atomic）開始進行。

The project began in '57 at General Atomics there,

that's right on the coast at La Jolla.

地點就在La Jolla(拉霍亞)海灘。

Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture.

看照片正中間的這棟建築。

這圖書館的直徑有130英尺，

That's the 130-foot diameter library.

That is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.

這正和那艘太空船的底座大小一致。

So put that library at the bottom of that ship --

想像一下將圖書館放在飛船的底下--

that's how big the thing was going to be.

就可以看出這艘太空船的尺寸。

It would take two or three thousand bombs.

推動這艘太空船需要用兩三千枚核彈，

The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people

參與這個飛船計畫的人，許多是以前在Los Alamos的人，

who had done the hydrogen bomb work.

他們過去都是搞氫彈的，

It was the first project funded by ARPA.

這個計畫是ARPA（美國高級研究計畫署）資助的第一個專案，

That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars

這是ARPA的合約，他們提供了第一筆一百萬美元資金

to get this thing started.

來啟動這個計畫。

"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."

“太空船計畫正式啟動，你有工作了，戴森。”

That's July '58.

時間是在1958年7月。

Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --

兩天後，這些太空遊客的宣言說明了我們為什麼要上太空--

--就像我們昨天聽到的一樣。

just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:

"... trips to satellites of the outer planets.

“前往太陽系外行星的衛星之旅” -- 1958年8月20日。(外行星指太陽系中地球軌道外的四顆由氣體組成有衛星帶的行星:木星 土星 海王星 天王星)

August 20, 1958."

These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop.

這是航行途中可以停留的中途點及目的地的統計表，

Some of the sizes of the ships,

有各種尺寸的太空船，

ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons.

最大達到8百萬噸級，

這是最大的太空船。

So that was the outer extreme.

Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.

這是第二個版本，兩千個核彈，

These are five-kiloton yield bombs, about the size of small Volkswagens;

會產生相當於5千噸炸彈的動力，大小和小型的福斯汽車相當。

讓太空船進入太空軌道需要8百枚。

it would take 800 to get into orbit.

Here we see a 10,000-ton ship will deliver 1,300 tons

這是一萬噸級的太空船，

其中一千三百噸動力是要留做從土星回程使用，

to Saturn and back -- essentially, a five-year trip.

這樣需要五年的旅行時間。

Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967.

可能的啟程日在1960年10月到1967年2月之間。

These are trajectories going to Mars.

這是航行到火星的軌跡線，

All this was done by hand, with slide rules.

這些都是用計算尺手算出來的。

The little Orion ship,

這艘獵戶座太空船，

如果用化學物質來推進的話，

and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:

you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.

大空船的大小大概會和帝國大廈差不多。

美國太空總署NASA沒有興趣，他們試圖砍掉這個研究計畫。

NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.

但空軍則支持這個計畫，

The people who supported it were the Air Force,

這意味著整個計畫都是秘密。

which meant that it was all secret.

這也是為什麼當這計畫解密時，

And that's why when you get something declassified, that's what it looks like.

它是這副模樣。

Military weapon versions that carried hydrogen bombs

這個軍事武器版的太空船所攜帶的

氫彈足以摧毀半個地球。

that could destroy half the planet.

There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.

這是另一個版本，可以用來對蘇聯實施報復性打擊--

This is the really secret stuff:

這才是本計畫真正的秘密核心：如何實現定向爆炸，

how to get directed energy explosions.

So you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --

核爆炸的推力必須被定向，

not like just a stick of dynamite, but you're directing it at the ship.

這點和普通炸藥的爆炸不同，

爆炸力量必須被導向太空船本身，

And this is still a very active subject.

定向爆炸至今仍然是一個非常活躍的學科。

It's quite dangerous,

它是相當危險的，

but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open

不過我想將危險的東西公開

than think you're going to keep them secret.

會比將其隱藏要好一些。

This is what happened at 600 microseconds.

這是爆炸6百微秒後的現象。

空軍方面開始建造較小規模的太空船，

The Air Force started to build smaller models

and actually started doing this.

The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."

在拉霍亞海灘的這些傢伙說：“我們現在該啟動了。”

They built a high-explosive propelled model.

他們造了一個高爆炸推進模型。

These are stills from film footage that was saved

這是一些從影片上擷取下來的照片，原本影片應該要銷毀的，

by someone who was supposed to destroy it but didn't,

但負責的人卻沒有將其銷毀，

反而將這些影片放在地下室達40年之久。

and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.

這是3磅C4炸藥爆炸的威力，

So, these are three-pound charges of C4;

that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes.

大概是美國鞋底炸彈客裝在鞋裡的10倍。

(Laughter)

This is Ed Day putting --

這只是牛刀小試而已--每個咖啡罐裏有三磅C4炸藥，

So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.

They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.

他們建造了一個系統，每四分之一秒會彈出一個炸藥桶。

That's my dad in the sport coat there, holding the briefcase.

照片中穿運動外套、拎著公事包的就是我老爹。

So, they had a lot of fun doing this.

他們很樂在其中，不過他們不讓小孩參與。

But no children were allowed;

我爸只告訴我，他在造太空船，

my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship and going to go to Saturn,

他準備去土星，

but he could not say anything more about it.

但沒再告訴我其他的事情。

So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,

所以一直以來，我都想搞清楚這件事，

and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.

我過去四年時間都在追查當時參與計畫的成員。

這些也是由影片中擷取的照片。

These are stills from the video.

昨天Jeff Bezos說，

Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said he'll put this video up

on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it.

他要把這些影片中的一些片段，放到Amazon網站上，

(Applause)

非常感謝他。

So, thanks to him.

They got quite serious about the engineering of this.

他們非常認真的建構太空船。

就太空船大小來說，這絕對是大科技。

The size of that mass, for us,

is really large technology in a way we're never going to go back to.

我們永遠不會再回頭搞這種大計畫。

If you saw the 1959 --

假如在1959年看到這東西，會感覺這就像旅客包廂。

this is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;

that's acceleration profile.

這是加速度分佈圖，

(Laughter)

And pulse-system yield: we're looking at 20-kiloton yield

這是脈衝系統的功率。

他們希望用相當於2萬噸的爆炸威力來產生一千萬牛頓力。

for an effective thrust of 10 million newtons.

Well, here we have a little problem, the radiation doses at the crew station:

然而，這兒出了點小問題：

每次發射就會在機組人員艙內產生高達700雷德的輻射劑量。

700 rads per shot.

(Laughter)

Fission yields during development:

發射過程中會產生核分裂：

they were hoping to get clean bombs; they didn't.

他們想找到無污染的炸彈，不過沒有成功。

Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up.

眼部灼傷 --這情形普遍發在在邁阿密海灘上，仰頭盯著看的人身上。

座艙--注意，還不錯。

(Laughter)

Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad; it's very low frequencies,

音頻非常低，類似低音炮。

it's basically like these sub-woofers.

And now we have ground-hazard assessments when you have a blow-up on the pad.

這是當發射臺爆炸時

的地面危害評估。

Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,

最後，在1964年底，NASA終於介入，他們說：

"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version

“好吧，我們支持小版本的可行性研究，

就用土星五號火箭分段發射上去再行組裝。"

that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."

這才是NASA想做的版本，

So this is what NASA did,

getting an eight-man version that would go to Mars.

只讓八個人前往火星的版本。

They liked it because the guys could kind of live there and be like,

NASA喜歡這個設計, 因為太空人可以住在裡面，

就像住在潛水艇裡面。

"It's like living in a submarine."

這是機組人員艙，它會移動，

This is crew compartment.

It switches, so what's upside down is right side up

所以一旦進入人工重力模式時，原本上下顛倒的就會轉正。

when you go to artificial gravity mode.

他們還是安排了科學家同行，

The scientists were still going to go along;

準備讓太空船搭載7個太空員及7個科學家，

they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.

這是搭載20人前往木星的版本：

This is a 20-man version for going to Jupiter:

有床位、防風地窖、運動室等。

bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.

You know, it was going to be a nice, long trip.

這應該是不錯的長途旅行。

The Air Force version: here we have a military version.

這是空軍版，也就是軍方的版本。

這些是沒有解密的資料，

This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,

just that people managed to sneak home and after, you know,

但就是有人偷渡拿回家，

on their deathbed, basically, gave me that.

然後在臨死前轉交給我。

這是藝術家為這計畫所畫的構想圖，

The sort of artist conceptions.

These are basically PowerPoint presentations

它的功用就像現在的Powerpoint一樣，

given to the Air Force 40 years ago.

在40年前是用來演繹給空軍看的。

Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.

注意看看這個在太空船外的小傢伙。

And one part of NASA was interested in it,

NASA中有一部分人對本計畫感興趣，

but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.

但是NASA總部大筆一揮砍掉了這個計畫，

So finally, at the end,

所以，最後，我們只能看到

we can see the thing followed its sort of design path right up to 1965,

這些設計的軌跡，

而且到1965年之後就全部中止了。

and then all those paths came to a halt.

Results: none.

計畫成果呢？什麼都沒有。

This project is hereby terminated.

計畫由此中止。

So that's the end.

這就是結局。最後我要說的是，

All I can say in closing is:

we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us

在昨天演講中我們聽到，對人類而言，未來有10個壞消息，

is an asteroid with our name on it.

其中之一是一顆由我們命名的小行星；

而對NASA來說，壞消息是

And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA

is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out,

這顆行星將在九個月以後撞到我們，

and everybody says,

人們會說：“我們該怎麼辦呀？”

"Well, what are we going to do?"

這時候即使獵戶座計畫不是唯一的解決方案，

And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,

off-the-shelf technologies that could do something.

卻也至少是現成的解決方案之一。

(Laughter)

So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.

所以我要告訴大家一個好消息和一個壞消息。

The good news is that NASA has a small, secret contingency-plan division

好消息是，NASA有一個小的、秘密的

應變計畫部門注意到這件事了，

that is looking at this, trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved

他們儘量保存獵戶座計畫相關的知識，以便應付這類的災難。

in the event of such a misfortune.

Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.

可能還保存了一些鈽彈頭也說不定。

That's the good news.

這是好消息。壞消息是，

The bad news is, when I got in contact with these people

當我聯繫這些人，

to try and get some documents from them, they went crazy

向他們要一些資料的時候，

他們顯得很擔心，因為我有的資料他們都沒有。

because I had all this stuff that they don't have,

and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me.

所以NASA從我這裡買走了1759頁的資料。

So that's the state we're at; it's not very good.

這就是目前的狀況。情況好像不太妙。

(Laughter)

(Applause)

（鼓掌）