George Dyson: Let's take a nuclear-powered rocket to Saturn

Prevoditelj: Igor Dobec Recezent: Ivan Majstorovic

I'm a historian.

Povjesničar sam.

Steve told us about the future of little technology;

Steve nam je govorio o budućnosti male tehnologije.

I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.

Ja ću vam pokazati nešto iz prošlosti velike tehnologije.

This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship

Ovo je bio projekt izgradnje 4,000-tonskog svemirskog broda s nuklearnim pogonom

and go to Saturn and Jupiter.

koji je trebao ići do Saturna i Jupitera.

This took place in my childhood, 1957-65.

Sve se događalo dok sam još bio dijete - od 1957. do 1965.

It was deeply classified.

I bilo je strogo povjerljivo.

I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,

Pokazat ću vam neke stvari koje ne samo da nikada nisu bile otvorene za javnost,

but has now been reclassified.

nego im je ponovno stavljena ozaka tajnosti.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

If all goes well, next year I'll be back,

Ako sve prođe dobro, sljedeće ću se godine vratiti i imati više toga za pokazati,

and I'll have a lot more to show you, and if all doesn't go well,

a ako ne, bit ću u zatvoru poput Wen Ho Leea.

I'll be in jail, like Wen Ho Lee.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,

Dakle taj je brod u osnovi bio velik kao Hotel Marriott,

a little taller and a little bigger.

samo malo viši i malo veći.

And one of the people who worked on it at the beginning

A jedan od ljudi koji su u početku radili na njemu

was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.

bio moj otac Freeman - ovaj ovdje u sredini.

That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.

ovo smo ja i moja sestra Esther, koja je često na TED-u...

I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.

Nisam volio svemirske brodove s nuklearnim pogonom.

I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.

U biti, to mi se činilo kao dobra ideja, pa sam počeo graditi kajake.

So we had a few kayaks.

Tako da smo imali nekoliko kajaka.

Just so you know that I am not Dr. Strangelove.

Samo da znate, nisam Dr. Strangelove.

But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages

Ali sve to vrijeme dok sam bio tamo negdje na svojim čudnim putovanjima kajakom

in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,

po neobičnim i prekrasnim dijelovima planeta,

I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,

uvijek sam se u mislima vraćao na Projekt Orion i razmišljao

and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.

kako su moj otac i njegovi prijatelji trebali graditi te goleme brodove.

They were actually going to go --

Oni su stvarno mislili ići. Oni su zapravo trebali ići.

Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.

Ted Taylor, voditelj projekta, mislio je povesti svoju djecu sa sobom.

My father was not going to take his children,

Moj otac nas nije kanio povesti.

I to je jedan od razloga zašto smo nekoliko godina bili toliko neuspješni.

that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Projekt je započeo 1957. u General Atomicu.

The project began in '57 at General Atomics there,

that's right on the coast at La Jolla.

To je na samoj obali kod La Jollae.

Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture.

Pogledajte središnju zgradu u sredini ove slike.

To vam je knjižnica promjera 40 metara.

That's the 130-foot diameter library.

That is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.

To je točna veličina baze svemirskog broda.

So put that library at the bottom of that ship --

Pa ako zamislite knjižnicu na dnu broda -

that's how big the thing was going to be.

tako velika je ta stvar trebala biti.

It would take two or three thousand bombs.

Trebalo bi dvije ili tri tisuće bombi.

The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people

Radnici na projektu su većinom bili iz Los Alamosa,

who had done the hydrogen bomb work.

ljudi koji su radili na hidrogenskoj bombi.

It was the first project funded by ARPA.

Bio je to prvi projekt koji je financirala ARPA.

That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars

Ovo je ugovor kojim ARPA daje prvi milijun dolara

to get this thing started.

kako bi se sve započelo.

"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."

"Projekt svemirskog broda je službeno započeo. Čeka te posao. Dyson."

That's July '58.

To je srpanj 1958.

Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --

Dva dana kasnije: manifest svemirskog putnika objašnjava zašto,

baš kao što su nam rekli jučer - zašto mi moramo ići u svemir?

just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:

"... trips to satellites of the outer planets.

"Put do satelita vanjskih planeta" - 20. kolovoza 1958.

August 20, 1958."

These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop.

Ovo su podaci koji određuju dobre polazišne i odredišne lokacije.

Some of the sizes of the ships,

Neke planirani brodovi trebali su

ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons.

doseći masu od čak 8 milijuna tona.

To je bio krajnji ekstrem.

So that was the outer extreme.

Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.

Ovdje je druga verzija - 2,000 bombi.

These are five-kiloton yield bombs, about the size of small Volkswagens;

Ovo su pet kilotonske bombe, otprilike veličine malog Volskswagena,

Trebalo bi ih 800 za penjanje u orbitu.

it would take 800 to get into orbit.

Here we see a 10,000-ton ship will deliver 1,300 tons

Ovdje vidimo brod od 10,000 tona -

kako bi mogao ponijeti 1,300 t tereta do Saturna i natrag.

to Saturn and back -- essentially, a five-year trip.

U osnovi, to bi bio petogodišnji put.

Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967.

Mogući datumi polaska: od listopada 1960 do veljače 1967.

These are trajectories going to Mars.

Ovo su putanje do Marsa.

All this was done by hand, with slide rules.

Sve je izrađeno ručno, ravnalima.

The little Orion ship,

Ovaj mali brod Orion -

i sve potrebno kako bi brod funkcionirao onako kako Orion funkcionira pomoću kemikalija.

and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:

you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.

Brod bi bio veličine Empire State Buildinga.

NASA nije bila zainteresirana i pokušali su zaustaviti projekt.

NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.

Ljudi koji su ga podržavali pripadali su zrakoplovstvu,

The people who supported it were the Air Force,

što znači da je sve ovo bilo tajno.

which meant that it was all secret.

I to je razlog zašto, kad s nečeg skinete oznaku tajnosti,

And that's why when you get something declassified, that's what it looks like.

to ovako izgleda.

Military weapon versions that carried hydrogen bombs

Vojne verzije bile su verzije koje su nosile

hidrogenske bombe i koje su mogle uništiti pola planeta.

that could destroy half the planet.

There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.

Bila je još jedna verzija koja je napravljena za omazdu na Sovjetski Savez.

This is the really secret stuff:

To je zaista bila tajna: način kako usmjeriti energetske eksplozije,

how to get directed energy explosions.

So you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --

tako da se energija nuklearne eksplozije

not like just a stick of dynamite, but you're directing it at the ship.

ne šalje kao kad eksplodira komad dinamita,

već usmjereno na brod.

And this is still a very active subject.

I to je još uvijek vrlo živa tema.

It's quite dangerous,

Prilično je opasno,

but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open

ali mislim da je opasne stvari bolje držati dostupnima,

than think you're going to keep them secret.

nego misliti da ih možeš zatajiti.

This is what happened at 600 microseconds.

Ovo se dogodilo u 600 mikrosekundi.

Zrakoplovstvo je počelo graditi manje modele i zapravo je započelo ovo.

The Air Force started to build smaller models

and actually started doing this.

The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."

Dečki iz La Jollae su rekli, "Sad zaista moramo krenuti."

They built a high-explosive propelled model.

Izgradili su model pogonjen jakim eksplozivom.

These are stills from film footage that was saved

Ovo su slike iz filma koji je snimio netko

by someone who was supposed to destroy it but didn't,

tko ga je trebao i uništiti ali nije,

nego ga je držao u podrumu 40 godina.

and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.

Ovo su vam punjenja eksploziva C4 od 1,4 kg.

So, these are three-pound charges of C4;

that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes.

To je otprilike 10 puta više nego što je onaj momak imao u cipelama.

(Laughter)

This is Ed Day putting --

Ovo je Ed Day koji se brine da svaka od tih limenki sadrži 1,4 kg C4.

So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.

They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.

Grade sustav koji ih izbacuje u intervalima od po četvrt sekunde.

That's my dad in the sport coat there, holding the briefcase.

Ovdje je moj otac u sportskoj jakni, drži aktovku.

So, they had a lot of fun doing this.

Dobro su se zabavljali dok su ovo radili, ali djeci nije bio dopušten pristup.

But no children were allowed;

Moj otac mi je smio reći da gradi svemirski brod

my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship and going to go to Saturn,

i da će ići do Saturna,

but he could not say anything more about it.

ali nije mogao reći ništa više.

So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,

Tako da sam cijeli svoj život htio saznati što više o tome,

and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.

i zadnje sam četiri godine proveo u potrazi za tim starcima.

Ovo su slike iz filma.

These are stills from the video.

Jeff Bezos je ljubazno jučer rekao

Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said he'll put this video up

on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it.

da će staviti ovaj video na Amazon, barem neki mali isječak.

(Applause)

Tako, zahvaljujući njemu.

So, thanks to him.

They got quite serious about the engineering of this.

Postali su prilično ozbiljni u vezi projektiranja ovog.

Veličina te mase, znate, za nas je stvarno velika tehnologija,

The size of that mass, for us,

is really large technology in a way we're never going to go back to.

kojoj se na neki način više nećemo vraćati.

If you saw the 1959 --

Ako ste vidjeli 1959 -- ovo je kako bi se osjećali u odjeljku za putnike.

this is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;

that's acceleration profile.

Ovo je akceleracijski profil.

(Laughter)

And pulse-system yield: we're looking at 20-kiloton yield

I ovo pulsni sustav.

Gledamo na 20-kilotonski pogon koji ima efekat 10 milijuna Newtona.

for an effective thrust of 10 million newtons.

Well, here we have a little problem, the radiation doses at the crew station:

Dobro, ovdje imamo mali problem:

radijacija utječe na posadu -- 700 rada po ispucavanju.

700 rads per shot.

(Laughter)

Fission yields during development:

Fizijsko polje za vrijeme razvoja:

they were hoping to get clean bombs; they didn't.

Nadali su se da će dobiti čiste bombe. Nisu.

Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up.

Opečene oči -- ovo se dogodilo ljudima u Miamiu koji su gledali gore.

Odjeljak za osoblje. Obratite pozornost da ni to nije previše loše.

(Laughter)

Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad; it's very low frequencies,

Ovo je jako niska frekvencija. Zapravo je poput ovih zvučnika.

it's basically like these sub-woofers.

And now we have ground-hazard assessments when you have a blow-up on the pad.

I sad imamo temelje za procjene opasnosti

kad imate eksploziju na postolju.

Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,

Konačno, na samom kraju, 1964., NASA se pridružila i rekla,

"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version

"OK, mi ćemo podržati studiju za malu verziju

koja bi se mogla lansirati sa Saturn Vs-om u elementima i spojena zajedno.

that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."

I to je ono što je NASA napravila, znate,

So this is what NASA did,

getting an eight-man version that would go to Mars.

verzija za osam ljudi koja bi išla na Mars.

They liked it because the guys could kind of live there and be like,

To im se sviđalo zato jer bi na neki način ljudi mogli živjeti tamo --

poput života u podmornici.

"It's like living in a submarine."

To je odjeljak za posadu. Okreće se, tako da su strane okrenute

This is crew compartment.

It switches, so what's upside down is right side up

kad prelazite u umjetnu gravitaciju.

when you go to artificial gravity mode.

Znanstvenici su i dalje željeli razvijati,

The scientists were still going to go along;

i htjeli su uzeti sedam astronauta i sedam znanstvenika.

they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.

To je verzija za 20 ljudi koji bi išli na Jupiter:

This is a 20-man version for going to Jupiter:

spremišta, sigurnosti bunkeri, teretane.

bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.

You know, it was going to be a nice, long trip.

I sami znate da bi to bio dug put.

The Air Force version: here we have a military version.

Verzija Zračnih snaga. Imamo vojnu verziju.

To je takva stvar kojoj nije bila maknuta oznaka tajnosti,

This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,

just that people managed to sneak home and after, you know,

samo su je ljudi uspjeli tajno odnjeti kući i kasnije,

on their deathbed, basically, gave me that.

znate, na samrtnoj postelji dali meni.

To je neka vrsta umjetničkog koncepta--

The sort of artist conceptions.

These are basically PowerPoint presentations

to su u osnovi PowerPoint prezentacije

given to the Air Force 40 years ago.

dane Zračnim snagama prije 40 godina.

Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.

Pogledajte na ove male ljude tamo, izvan vozila.

And one part of NASA was interested in it,

I jedan dio NASA-e je bio zainteresiran,

but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.

ali su u upravi NASA-e odlučili ubiti projekt.

So finally, at the end,

I, konačno, na kraju, mi možemo

we can see the thing followed its sort of design path right up to 1965,

vidjeti koje su stvari pratile ovaj put dizajniranja

sve do 1965. I onda su se svi ovi putevi zaustavili.

and then all those paths came to a halt.

Results: none.

Rezultati? Nema ih.

This project is hereby terminated.

Ovaj projekt je zaustavljen.

So that's the end.

I tako je to kraj. I sve što mogu reći na kraju,

All I can say in closing is:

we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us

čuli smo jučer da je jedna od loših stvari koja nam se može dogoditi

is an asteroid with our name on it.

je asteroid s našim imenom na sebi.

I jedna od loših stvari koja bi se mogla desiti NASA-i

And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA

is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out,

je da se pojavi asteroid s našim imenom udaljen devet mjeseci,

and everybody says,

i da svi vele "Dobro, što ćemo sad napraviti? "

"Well, what are we going to do?"

I Orion je stvarno jedna, ako ne i jedina,

And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,

off-the-shelf technologies that could do something.

razvijana tehnologija koja je mogla napraviti nešto.

(Laughter)

So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.

Tako da ću vam morati reći dobru i lošu vijest.

The good news is that NASA has a small, secret contingency-plan division

Dobra vijest je da NASA ima mali, tajni

prikriveni odjel koji ovo razmatra,

that is looking at this, trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved

i pokušava sačuvati znanje Oriona za ovakav nesretan slučaj.

in the event of such a misfortune.

Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.

Možda da stavi par malih bombi plutoniuma sa strane.

That's the good news.

To je dobra vijest. Loša vijest je,

The bad news is, when I got in contact with these people

da kad sam kontaktirao te ljude

to try and get some documents from them, they went crazy

i probao dobiti neke dokumente od njeh,

poludjeli su, jer sam ja imao sve te stvari koje oni nisu.

because I had all this stuff that they don't have,

and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me.

I NASA je kupila 1,759 stranica tih stvari od mene.

So that's the state we're at; it's not very good.

I to je stanje u kojem smo. To nije -- nije baš dobro.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)