Jonathan Foley: The other inconvenient truth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Tereza Ivanovic Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

Tonight, I want to have a conversation about

Večeras želim da razgovaramo

this incredible global issue

o neverovatnom svetskom problemu

that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,

gde se prožimaju upotreba zemljišta, hrana i okruženje,

something we can all relate to,

nešto, što se tiče svih nas

and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.

i što sam ja nazvao drugom neprijatnom istinom.

But first, I want to take you on a little journey.

Prvo, želim da vas povedem na jedno kratko putovanje.

Let's first visit our planet, but at night,

Hajde da posetimo našu planetu, ali noću

and from space.

i iz svemira.

This is what our planet looks like from outer space

Ovako izgleda naša planeta iz svemira noću,

at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel

kada biste satelitom putovali oko nje.

around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,

Ono što biste, naravno, prvo zapazili,

of course, is how dominant the human presence

to je, koliko je dominantno prisustvo ljudi

on our planet is.

na našoj planeti.

We see cities, we see oil fields,

Vidimo gradove, naftna polja,

you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,

možemo čak da razaznamo ribarske flote na moru,

that we are dominating much of our planet,

mnogo dominiramo na planeti,

and mostly through the use of energy

to se vidi uglavnom po korišćenju energije noću,

that we see here at night.

što ovde vidimo.

But let's go back and drop it a little deeper

Hajde da se vratimo i spustimo se malo niže

and look during the daytime.

i pogledajmo šta se dešava danju.

What we see during the day is our landscapes.

Danju vidimo pejzaže.

This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia

Ovo je deo basena Amazon, mesto se zove Rondonija,

in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.

u južno-centralnom delu brazilskog Amazona.

If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,

Ako pažljivo pogledate u gornji desni ugao,

you're going to see a thin white line,

videćete tanku, belu liniju,

which is a road that was built in the 1970s.

to je u stvari put izgrađen sedamdesetih godina.

If we come back to the same place in 2001,

Ako se vratimo na isto mesto, ali 2001,

what we're going to find is that these roads

naići ćemo na to, da se ovi putevi

spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,

razgranavaju na sve više i više puteva,

at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest

na čijem kraju je raščišćena prašuma,

where there are going to be a few cows.

na mestu gde je par goveda.

These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.

Goveda se koriste zbog mesa. Poješćemo ih.

And these cows are eaten basically in South America,

Ova goveda se uglavnom jedu u Južnoj Americi,

in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.

Brazilu i Argentini. Ne dostavljaju se ovamo.

But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation

Samo, ovaj model deforestacije koji se zove riblja kost,

is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,

je nešto što zapažamo u tropskim područjima,

especially in this part of the world.

naročito u ovom delu sveta.

If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,

Ako ovu našu malu turu oko sveta produžimo južnije,

we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,

možemo da odemo do bolivijske ivice Amazona,

here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,

ovde 1975, ako zaista pažljivo gledate,

there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,

postoji tanka, bela linija na rubu

and there's a lone farmer out there

i tu je usamljeni farmer

in the middle of the primeval jungle.

nasred prvobitne prašume.

Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,

Hajde da se ponovo vratimo u 2003.

and we'll see that that landscape actually looks

i videćemo da pejzaž više liči

a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.

na Ajovu nego na prašumu.

In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.

U stvari, ovde se vide polja soje.

These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China

Soja se isporučuje u Evropu i Kinu

as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare

kao stočna hrana, naročito posle straha od bolesti ludih krava

about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals

pre oko jedne decenije.

Ne želimo da hranimo životinje životinjskim proteinima,

animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.

jer to može da prenosi bolest.

Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.

Umesto toga, želimo da ih hranimo biljnim proteinima.

So soybeans have really exploded,

Došlo je do ekspanzije soje,

showing how trade and globalization are

pokazujući da su trgovina i globalizacija

really responsible for the connections to rainforests

zaista odgovorni za vezu između prašuma i Amazona -

and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange

neverovatno čudan i međusobno povezan svet koji imamo danas.

and interconnected world that we have today.

Well, again and again, what we find as we look

Ono što iznova vidimo, dok posmatramo svet

around the world in our little tour of the world

u ovoj maloj turi oko sveta,

is that landscape after landscape after landscape

to je da su pejzaži, jedan za drugim

have been cleared and altered for growing food

iskrčeni i izmenjeni zbog proizvodnje hrane

and other crops.

i drugih useva.

So one of the questions we've been asking is,

Jedno od pitanja koje postavljamo

how much of the world is used to grow food,

je koliko se sveta koristi za proizvodnju hrane,

and where is it exactly, and how can we change that

gde se to tačno nalazi i kako to možemo promeniti

into the future, and what does it mean?

u budućnosti i šta to znači?

Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,

Naš tim proučava ovo u svetskoj razmeri,

using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track

koristeći podatke sa satelita, kao i sa terena, da bismo pratili

farming on a global scale.

poljoprivredu u globalnoj razmeri.

And this is what we found, and it's startling.

Ono što smo saznali je potresno.

This map shows the presence of agriculture

Ova karta pokazuje prisutnost poljoprivrede

on planet Earth.

na planeti Zemlji.

The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,

Zelena područja su ona na kojima gajimo useve,

like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.

kao što su soja ili kukuruz ili pirinač ili nešto drugo.

That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.

To je 16 miliona kvadratnih kilometara zemljišta.

If you put it all together in one place,

Kada bi to skupili na jedno mesto,

it'd be the size of South America.

to bi bilo veličine Južne Amerike.

The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures

Drugo, braon područje, to su pašnjaci sveta

and rangelands, where our animals live.

i zemljište pod vegetacijom, gde žive životinje.

That area's about 30 million square kilometers,

To područje je oko 30 miliona kvadratnih kilometara

or about an Africa's worth of land,

ili kao otprilike zemljište Afrike,

a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,

ogromna količina zemljišta, najboljeg zemljišta naravno,

is what you see. And what's left is, like,

evo, to vidite.

Preostalo je, na primer, središnji deo pustinje Sahare ili Sibir

the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,

or the middle of a rain forest.

ili središte prašume.

We're using a planet's worth of land already.

Već sada koristimo dragoceno zemljište planete.

If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent

Pažljivim posmatranjem shvatićemo da je oko 40 posto

of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,

površine Zemlje posvećeno poljoprivredi

and it's 60 times larger

i to je 60 puta veće

than all the areas we complain about,

od svih područja koja krivimo

our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.

za širenje naših predgrađa i gradova u kojima živimo.

Half of humanity lives in cities today,

Polovina čovečanstva danas živi u gradovima,

but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.

a za proizvodnju hrane koristi se 60 puta veće područje od gradskih.

So this is an amazing kind of result,

Ovaj neverovatan rezultat

and it really shocked us when we looked at that.

nas je zaista šokirao, kada smo ga videli.

So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,

Dakle, neverovatno mnogo zemljišta koristimo za poljoprivredu,

but also we're using a lot of water.

a koristimo i mnogo vode.

This is a photograph flying into Arizona,

Ova fotografija je iz Arizone

and when you look at it, you're like,

i kada je pogledate, pomislite: "Šta se tu proizvodi?".

"What are they growing here?" It turns out

they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert

Ispostavlja se, da se proizvodi zelena salata usred pustinje

using water sprayed on top.

i zaliva se odozgo.

Now, the irony is, it's probably sold

Ironija je, da se ona verovatno prodaje

in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.

na policama naših supermarketa u Mineapolisu i Sent Polu.

But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come

Ali ono što je zaista zanimljivo, to je da ova voda mora da dođe

from some place, and it comes from here,

sa nekog mesta, a dolazi odavde,

the Colorado River in North America.

iz reke Kolorado u Severnoj Americi.

Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,

Evo, Kolorada jednog običnog dana pedesetih godina,

this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,

nije ni poplava, ni suša,

kind of an average day, it looks something like this.

nego jedan prosečan dan koji izgleda ovako.

But if we come back today, during a normal condition

Ako se vratimo u sadašnjost, u normalne uslove,

to the exact same location, this is what's left.

na upravo istu lokaciju, evo šta je preostalo.

The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,

Razlika je zbog zalivanja pustinje, da bi se proizvela hrana

or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.

ili zbog zalivanja golf terena, u Skotsdejlu, izaberite.

Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water

Ovo je mnogo vode i ponovo crpimo vodu

and using it to grow food,

zbog proizvodnje hrane.

and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,

Kada danas putujete dalje niz reku Kolorado,

it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.

videćete da je potpuno presušila i više se ne uliva u okean.

We've literally consumed an entire river in North America

Potrošili smo, bukvalno, celu jednu reku u Severnoj Americi,

for irrigation.

na zalivanje.

Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.

Ovo nije najgori primer na svetu.

This probably is: the Aral Sea.

Ali ovo jeste: Aralsko jezero.

Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.

Setićete ga se sa časova geografije.

This is in the former Soviet Union

Ono je u bivšem Sovjetskom Savezu,

in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,

između Kazahstana i Uzbekistana,

one of the great inland seas of the world.

jedno od velikih mora u unutrašnjosti.

But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like

Postoji paradoks, jer izgleda kao da je okruženo pustinjom.

it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?

Zašto je ovde?

The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,

Nalazi se ovde, jer se sa desne strane vide dve male reke

you see two little rivers kind of coming down

kako se spuštaju kroz pesak,

through the sand, feeding this basin with water.

napajajući ovaj basen vodom.

Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains

U te reke otiče otopljen sneg sa planina daleko na istoku,

far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river

gde se sneg topi, sliva se u reku kroz pustinju

through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.

i formira veliko Aralsko jezero.

Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water

1950. godine Rusi su odlučili da preusmere tu vodu

to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,

da bi zalivali pustinju radi gajenja pamuka,

verovali ili ne, u Kazahstanu,

in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets

i da bi ga prodavali na međunarodnom tržištu,

to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.

da privuku stranu valutu u Sovjetski Savez.

They really needed the money.

Zaista im je bio potreban novac.

Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off

Možete zamisliti šta se dešava. Prekinete dotok vode

the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?

u Aralsko jezero i šta će se desiti?

Here it is in 1973,

Evo, 1973,

1986,

1986,

1999,

1999,

2004,

2004.

and about 11 months ago.

i pre otprilike 11 meseci.

It's pretty extraordinary.

Prilično je neobično.

Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.

Mnogo nas živi na Srednjem zapadu.

Imagine that was Lake Superior.

Zamislite da se to desilo sa Gornjim jezerom.

Imagine that was Lake Huron.

Ili sa jezerom Hjuron.

It's an extraordinary change.

To je neverovatna promena.

This is not only a change in water and

Nije u pitanju samo voda i položaj obale,

where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals

promena je fundamentalna

of the environment of this region.

za okolinu ove regije.

Let's start with this.

Da počnemo sa ovim.

The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.

Sovjetski Savez nije imao organizaciju za zaštitu životne sredine.

Let's put it that way.

So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.

Da kažem to ovako -

Ono što se vidi na dnu Aralskog jezera nije lepo.

There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things

Ima mnogo toksičnog otpada,

that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.

mnogo tog otpada je sada u vazduhu.

One of those small islands that was remote

Jedno od malih, udaljenih ostrva

and impossible to get to was a site

kojem je pristup bio nemoguć,

of Soviet biological weapons testing.

služilo je za testiranje sovjetskog biološkog oružja.

You can walk there today.

Danas je pristupačno stići tamo.

Weather patterns have changed.

Vremenski obrasci se menjaju.

Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only

19 od 20 jedinstvenih ribljih vrsta koje se nalaze u Aralskom jezeru,

in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.

zbrisano je sa lica Zemlje.

This is an environmental disaster writ large.

Ovo je ogromna katastrofa.

But let's bring it home.

Ali, hajde da se vratimo.

This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago

Ovo je slika koju mi je Al Gor dao pre nekoliko godina.

that he took when he was in the Soviet Union

To je snimio kada je bio u Sovjetskom Savezu pre mnogo godina

a long, long time ago,

showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.

i prikazane su ribarske flote u Aralskom jezeru.

You see the canal they dug?

Vidite li kanale koje su iskopali?

They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into

Očajnički su pokušavali da uvedu čamce u ostatke vode,

the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up

ali na kraju su morali da odustanu

because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't

jer stubovi i sidrišta nisu mogli da prate

keep up with the retreating shoreline.

povlačenje obale.

I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future

Ne znam za vas, ali ja sam užasnut,

archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about

budući arheolozi će iskopati ovo i pisaće priče o našem vremenu,

our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"

pitajući se: "O čemu ste mislili?"

Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.

Ovakvu budućnost očekujemo.

We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water

Već sada koristimo 50 posto održive vode Zemlje,

that's sustainable, and agriculture alone

a od toga

is 70 percent of that.

70 posto se troši na poljoprivredu.

So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.

Mnogo vode, mnogo zemljišta koristimo za poljoprivredu.

We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.

Čak i od atmosfere koristimo mnogo.

Usually when we think about the atmosphere,

Obično, kad pomislimo na atmosferu,

we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,

mislimo o klimatskim promenama i o gasovima staklene bašte

and mostly around energy,

i uglavnom o energiji,

but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters

a ispostavlja se, da je poljoprivreda jedan od najvećih emitera

of greenhouse gases too.

gasova staklene bašte.

If you look at carbon dioxide from

Ako pogledate ugljen dioksid

burning tropical rainforest,

iz zapaljenih tropskih prašuma

or methane coming from cows and rice,

ili metan koji potiče od goveda i pirinča

or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,

ili azotni oksid iz previše đubriva,

it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse

ispostavlja se da se 30 posto gasova staklene bašte

gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.

oslobađa u atmosferu zbog ljudske aktivnosti.

That's more than all our transportation.

To je više od celokupnog saobraćaja.

It's more than all our electricity.

Više od celokupne električne energije.

It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.

U stvari, više od celokupne proizvodnje.

It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases

Poljoprivreda je najveći emiter gasova

of any human activity in the world.

koji potiče od delatnosti ljudi.

And yet, we don't talk about it very much.

Ipak se ne govori mnogo o tome.

So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture

Neverovatno je prisustvo poljoprivrede danas,

dominating our planet,

ona dominira našom planetom,

whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,

bilo da zauzma 40 posto površine zemlje,

70 percent of the water we use,

70 posto vode koju koristimo

30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.

ili učestvuje sa 30 posto u emisiji gasova.

We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus

Duplirali smo kruženje azota i fosfora u svetu

around the world simply by using fertilizers,

samo zbog upotrebe đubriva,

causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,

narušavajući kvalitet voda u rekama, jezerima, čak i u okeanima.

lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest

Poljoprivreda je najveći pokretač

driver of biodiversity loss.

gubitka biodiverziteta.

So without a doubt, agriculture is

Bez sumnje, poljoprivreda je

the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet

najveća oslobođena snaga na ovoj planeti

since the end of the ice age. No question.

od završetka ledenog doba.

Bez sumnje.

And it rivals climate change in importance.

Po važnosti, rival je klimatskoj promeni.

And they're both happening at the same time.

A obe se dešavaju istovremeno.

But what's really important here to remember is that

Ali, važno je napomenuti, nije sve tako loše.

it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.

Nije stvar u tome da je poljoprivreda loša.

In fact, we completely depend on it.

U stvari, u potpunosti zavisimo od nje.

It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.

Ona je obavezna. Nije luksuz.

Ona je apsolutna potreba.

We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,

Moramo obezbediti hranu za ljude i stoku,

fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people

vlakna i biogorivo za današnjih sedam milijardi ljudi sveta.

in the world today, and if anything,

Tražićemo da se poljoprivreda čak i uveća u budućnosti.

we're going to have the demands on agriculture

increase into the future. It's not going to go away.

Potrebe neće prestati, mnogo će se uvećati,

It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of

growing population. We're seven billion people today

uglavnom zbog porasta populacije.

Danas nas ima sedam milijardi, ali idemo ka najmanje devet,

heading towards at least nine,

probably nine and a half before we're done.

možda devet i po dok se osvrnemo.

More importantly, changing diets.

Što je još važnije, menja se način ishrane.

As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous,

Kako svet postaje bogatiji, a i brojniji,

we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat,

vidimo porast potrošnje mesa,

which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does.

što koristi mnogo više resursa nego vegetarijanska ishrana.

So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff,

Više ljudi jede više, bogatiju hranu,

and of course having an energy crisis at the same time,

a istovremeno imamo i krizu energenata,

where we have to replace oil with other energy sources

moramo zameniti naftu drugim izvorima energije,

that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels

što će automatski uključiti neke vrste biogoriva

and bio-energy sources.

i izvore bioenergije.

So you put these together. It's really hard to see

Sve to zajedno znači da je teško shvatiti:

how we're going to get to the rest of the century

teško je predvideti kako ćemo stići do kraja veka

without at least doubling global agricultural production.

bez barem udvostručenja svetske poljoprivredne proizvodnje.

Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to

Pa, kako ćemo to uraditi?

double global ag production around the world?

Kako ćemo udvostručiti svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju?

Well, we could try to farm more land.

Možemo pokušati da obrađujemo više zemljišta.

This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where

Ovo je analiza koju smo uradili, levo su usevi danas,

the crops are today, on the right is where they could be

desno je gde bi mogli biti

based on soils and climate, assuming climate change

na osnovu zemljišta i klime, pretpostavljajući da klimatska promena

doesn't disrupt too much of this,

ne remeti mnogo od ovoga,

which is not a good assumption.

što i nije dobra pretpostavka.

We could farm more land, but the problem is

Mogli bismo obrađivati i više zemljišta, ali problem je u tome

the remaining lands are in sensitive areas.

što je ostatak zemljišta u osetljivim područjima.

They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon,

Ona imaju bogat biodiverzitet, mnogo ugljenika,

things we want to protect.

stvari koje želimo da zaštitimo.

So we could grow more food by expanding farmland,

Mogli bismo da proizvodimo više hrane uvećanjem obradivog zemljišta,

but we'd better not,

ali bolje je da to ne radimo,

because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.

jer je sa aspekta ekologije to veoma opasno.

Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint

Umesto toga, mogli bismo da zamrznemo uticaj poljoprivrede

of agriculture and farm the lands we have better.

i da bolje obrađujemo postojeće zemljište.

This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places

Ovde pokušavamo da naglasimo mesta u svetu,

in the world where we could improve yields

gde bismo mogli povećati prinose,

without harming the environment.

a da ne štetimo okolini.

The green areas here show where corn yields,

Zelena područja pokazuju polja kukuruza,

just showing corn as an example,

navodimo kukuruz kao primer,

are already really high, probably the maximum you could

gde su prinosi zaista visoki, verovatno maksimalni

find on Earth today for that climate and soil,

za tu klimu i tlo,

but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where

a braon i žuta područja su mesta

we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield

gde su prinosi samo 20 ili 30 posto

you should be able to get.

od onoga što bi trebalo da dobijemo.

You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America,

Ovo se dešava najviše u Africi, čak i u Latinskoj Americi,

but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union

ali zanimljivo je da u Istočnoj Evropi, gde se nalazio Sovjetski savez

and Eastern Bloc countries used to be,

i gde su bile zemlje Istočnog bloka,

is still a mess agriculturally.

poljoprivreda još uvek nije uređena.

Now, this would require nutrients and water.

Potrebna je hrana i voda.

It's going to either be organic or conventional

Može biti organska ili konvencionalna

or some mix of the two to deliver that.

ili neka mešavina i jednog i drugog.

Plants need water and nutrients.

Biljkama je potrebna voda i hrana.

But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.

Postoje šanse da uspemo u ovome.

But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive

Moramo to uraditi tako da vodimo računa

to meeting the food security needs of the future

i zadovoljimo potrebe za bezbednošću hrane u budućnosti

and the environmental security needs of the future.

i bezbednosti okoline u budućnosti.

We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between

Moramo otkriti kako doći do kompromisa

growing food and having a healthy environment work better.

između veće proizvodnje hrane i bezbedne delatnosti po okolinu.

Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition.

Sada je to vrsta plana sve-ili-ništa.

We can grow food in the background --

Možemo proizvoditi hranu u ovim okolnostima -

that's a soybean field —

ovo su polja soje,

and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food,

i ovaj dijagram pokazuje da proizvodimo mnogo hrane,

but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing

ali nemamo mnogo čiste vode, ne skladištimo ugljenik,

a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity.

nemamo razgranat biodiverzitet.

In the foreground, we have this prairie

U prvom planu imamo ovo preriju,

that's wonderful from the environmental side,

koja je divna sa tačke gledišta okoline, ali tu ništa nije jestivo.

but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?

Šta može ovde da se jede?

We need to figure out how to bring both of those together

Moramo smisliti način kako da spojimo ovo

into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.

u jednu novu vrstu poljoprivrede koja sve spaja.

Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me,

Kada o ovome pričam, ljudi mi često govore:

"Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food,

"Zar odgovor nije _____?" - organska hrana, lokalna hrana,

local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills --

GMO, nove trgovačke subvencije, novi računi za farme -

and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here,

imamo mnogo dobrih ideja ovde,

but not any one of these is a silver bullet.

ali nijedna nije pravi pogodak.

In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot.

Više liči na sačmu.

And I love silver buckshot. You put it together

A ja volim pravi pogodak.

Sastavite ih i dobijate nešto zaista moćno,

and you've got something really powerful,

but we need to put them together.

ali potrebno je da ih spojimo.

So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind

Ono što moramo uraditi je to da otkrijemo novu vrstu poljoprivrede,

of agriculture that blends the best ideas

mešavinu najboljih ideja

of commercial agriculture and the green revolution

komercijalne poljoprivrede i zelene revolucije

with the best ideas of organic farming and local food

sa najboljim idejama o organskoj proizvodnji i lokalnoj hrani

and the best ideas of environmental conservation,

i sa najboljim idejama o zaštiti životne sredine;

not to have them fighting each other but to have them

da se ne sukobljavaju jedna sa drugom, nego da sarađuju;

collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture,

da bismo stvorili novu vrstu poljoprivrede;

something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.

nešto, što ja zovem "zemljokulturom", odnosno proizvodnjom za celu planetu.

Now, having this conversation has been really hard,

Pošto je ovo dogovaranje zaista teško

and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points

i ozbiljno smo se trudili da damo ove ključne tačke ljudima,

to people to reduce the controversy,

da smanjimo polemiku,

to increase the collaboration.

a povećamo saradnju.

I want to show you a short video that does kind of show

Želim da vam pokažem kratak video koji pokazuje naše napore

our efforts right now to bring these sides together

da približimo obe strane u jedan razgovor.

into a single conversation. So let me show you that.

Dozvolite da vam to prikažem.

(Music)

(Muzika)

("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover")

[Institut za zaštitu okoline, Univerzitet u Minesoti:

Podstaknut za otkrivanjem]

(Music)

(Muzika)

("The world population is growing

[Svetsko stanovništvo uvećava se

by 75 million people each year.

svake godine za 75 miliona ljudi.

That's almost the size of Germany.

To je skoro veličina Nemačke.

Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.

Danas smo se približili broju od 7 milijardi ljudi.

At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040.

Ovim tempom, do 2040. godine biće 9 milijardi ljudi.

And we all need food.

Svima nam je potrebna hrana.

But how?

Ali kako?

How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet?

Kako ćemo hraniti svet, a da ne uništimo planetu?

We already know climate change is a big problem.

Već znamo da je klimatska promena veliki problem.

But it's not the only problem.

Ali nije jedini.

We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.'

Moramo se suočiti sa "drugom neprijatnom istinom".

A global crisis in agriculture.

Sa svetskom krizom poljoprivrede.

Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources.

Porast stanovništva + potrošnja mesa

+ potrošnja mleka + cena energije + proizvodnja bioenergije

More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture.

= pritisak na prirodne resurse.

Više od 40 posto obradive zemlje je nestalo zbog poljoprivrede.

Global croplands cover 16 million km².

Njive u svetu pokrivaju 16 miliona km².

That's almost the size of South America.

To je skoro veličina Južne Amerike.

Global pastures cover 30 million km².

Pašnjaci pokrivaju 30 miliona km².

That's the size of Africa.

To je veličina Afrike.

Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined.

Poljoprivreda koristi 60 puta više zemljišta

od gradskih i prigradskih područja zajedno.

Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet.

Zalivanje je najveći potrošač vode na planeti.

We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year.

Svake godine koristimo 2800 km³ vode za zalivanje useva.

That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day.

To je dovoljno da se napuni 7.305 zgrada Empire State svakog dana.

Today, many large rivers have reduced flows.

Danas mnoge velike reke imaju smanjen protok.

Some dry up altogether.

Neke se skroz isuše.

Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert.

Pogledajte Aralsko jezero, pretvorilo se u pustinju.

Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean.

Reka Kolorado se više ne uliva u okean.

Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment.

Đubriva su više nego udvostručila količinu fosfora i azota u okolini.

The consequence?

A posledica toga?

Widespread water pollution

Zagađenje vode širom sveta

and massive degradation of lakes and rivers.

i masovna degradacija jezera i reka.

Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change.

Začudo, poljoprivreda najviše doprinosi klimatskoj promeni.

It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Ona stvara 30% emisije gasova staklene bašte.

That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry,

To je više od emisije celokupne električne energije i industrije

or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles.

ili od emisije svih aviona, vozova i automobila na svetu.

Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation,

Većina poljoprivrednih emisija dolazi od krčenja tropskih šuma,

methane from animals and rice fields,

and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.

metana životinjskog porekla i sa pirinčanih polja

There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture.

i od azot oksida zbog preterane upotrebe đubriva.

And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival.

Ništa ne transformiše svet više od poljoprivrede.

I ništa od ovoga nije sudbonosnije za naš opstanak.

Here's the dilemma...

Evo dileme...

As the world grows by several billion more people,

pošto se svet uvećava za nekoliko milijardi ljudi,

We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production.

moraćemo udvostručiti ili čak utrostručiti svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju.

So where do we go from here?

Kuda da idemo odavde?

We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue.

Potreban nam je opširniji razgovor, međunarodni dijalog.

We need to invest in real solutions:

Moramo investirati u prava rešenja: podsticaje za farmere,

incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation,

preciznu poljoprivredu,

stvaranje novih vrsta useva, navodnjavanje kap po kap,

gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets.

recikliranje otpadne vode, bolju praksu oranja, pametniju ishranu.

We need everyone at the table.

Potrebno je da se svi okupe.

Advocates of commercial agriculture,

Zagovornici komercijalne poljoprivrede,

environmental conservation,

očuvanja životne okoline

and organic farming...

i organske proizvodnje...

must work together.

svi moraju raditi zajedno.

There is no single solution.

Nema prostog rešenja.

We need collaboration,

Potrebna nam je saradnja,

imagination,

mašta,

determination,

odlučnost,

because failure is not an option.

jer ne smemo pogrešiti.

How do we feed the world without destroying it?

Kako ćemo hraniti svet, a da ga ne uništimo?]

Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges

Suočavamo se sa jednim od najvećih izazova

in all of human history today:

u ljudskoj istoriji danas:

the need to feed nine billion people

to je ishrana devet milijardi ljudi,

and do so sustainably and equitably and justly,

a da to bude održivo, ravnopravno i pravedno,

at the same time protecting our planet

a istovremeno i da zaštitimo našu planetu za ovu,

for this and future generations.

a i sledeće generacije.

This is going to be one of the hardest things

Ovo će biti jedna od najtežih stvari

we ever have done in human history,

koju smo ikada uradili u ljudskoj istoriji

and we absolutely have to get it right,

i moramo ovo apsolutno tačno uraditi

and we have to get it right on our first and only try.

i to iz prvog i jedinog pokušaja.

So thanks very much. (Applause)

Hvala mnogo. (Aplauz)