Jonathan Foley: The other inconvenient truth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: illusion Hung 校对人员: Wei Wu

Tonight, I want to have a conversation about

今晚，我想谈一个

this incredible global issue

令人震惊的全球议题

that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,

即土地利用、粮食和环境的关系

something we can all relate to,

某些和每个人都息息相关的事物

and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.

我称之为“另一个棘手的事实”

But first, I want to take you on a little journey.

但首先我想 带领大家进行一趟简短的旅程

Let's first visit our planet, but at night,

先参观一下我们的星球，不过是在夜间

and from space.

从外太空观看

This is what our planet looks like from outer space

这是从外太空观察地球夜间的景象

at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel

如果你搭乘人造卫星

around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,

绕行地球，你首先注意到的是

of course, is how dominant the human presence

当然，人类这种生物

on our planet is.

主宰地球的程度

We see cities, we see oil fields,

我们看见城市、油田

you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,

你甚至能辨识出海上的渔船队

that we are dominating much of our planet,

我们主宰大部分地球

and mostly through the use of energy

主要藉由能源的运用

that we see here at night.

如我们夜间所见的景象

But let's go back and drop it a little deeper

但我们回头稍做深入研究

and look during the daytime.

观察白昼的情形

What we see during the day is our landscapes.

我们于白昼所见的是地表景观

This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia

这是亚马逊盆地中一个叫朗多尼亚的地方

in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.

位于巴西亚马逊盆地中南部

If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,

如果你仔细观察右上角

you're going to see a thin white line,

将会看见一条白色细线

which is a road that was built in the 1970s.

那是兴建于1970年代的道路

If we come back to the same place in 2001,

如果我们回顾2001年同地区的景观

what we're going to find is that these roads

将发现这些道路

spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,

四处延伸，然后延伸出更多道路

at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest

道路尽头是雨林中的小空地

where there are going to be a few cows.

豢养着一些牛

These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.

这些牛将变成牛肉，进入人类腹中

And these cows are eaten basically in South America,

基本上这些牛肉将运往南美

in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.

供巴西人和阿根廷人食用，不会运往这里

But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation

但我们发现 这种森林经砍伐后的鱼骨状图案

is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,

遍布热带地区

especially in this part of the world.

尤其是这片区域

If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,

如果这趟世界之旅稍微往南前进

we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,

可抵达亚马逊盆地与玻利维亚交界处

here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,

这同样是1975年的景观，如果仔细观察

there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,

将会看见一条白色细线 穿过一道类似细缝的地方

and there's a lone farmer out there

一位孤独的农夫

in the middle of the primeval jungle.

伫立在原始丛林中

Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,

我们再回顾一下 数年后－2003年的景观

and we'll see that that landscape actually looks

我们所见的景观事实上十分类似

a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.

爱荷华州，而非雨林

In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.

事实上你所见的是黄豆田

These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China

这些黄豆将运往欧洲和中国

as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare

作为动物的饲料，尤其是疯牛病爆发后

about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals

这是大约十年前的事，我们不想再喂动物

animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.

动物性蛋白质，因为这将导致疾病传播

Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.

相反地，我们希望以 较多植物性蛋白质喂食动物

So soybeans have really exploded,

因此黄豆需求激增

showing how trade and globalization are

显示贸易和全球化

really responsible for the connections to rainforests

确实与雨林及亚马逊盆地

and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange

息息相关－对我们来说十分陌生

and interconnected world that we have today.

且与世隔绝的地区

Well, again and again, what we find as we look

好，我们一再发现

around the world in our little tour of the world

在环绕世界的旅程中

is that landscape after landscape after landscape

无数地表景观

have been cleared and altered for growing food

遭受破坏，转变成粮食产地

and other crops.

及其他作物产地

So one of the questions we've been asking is,

因此我们常被问到的问题是

how much of the world is used to grow food,

世上有多少土地被用于生产粮食？

and where is it exactly, and how can we change that

这些地方位于何处？未来将发生何种改变？

into the future, and what does it mean?

这代表什么意义？

Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,

好，我们的团队观察全球情况

using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track

利用人造卫星搜集的信息和地表数据

farming on a global scale.

追踪全球农地规模

And this is what we found, and it's startling.

这是我们的发现，令人震惊不已

This map shows the presence of agriculture

这张地图显示农业

on planet Earth.

分布于地表的情形

The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,

绿色区域是种植作物的地方

like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.

例如小麦、黄豆、玉米或稻米等

That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.

相当于1600万平方公里土地

If you put it all together in one place,

如果将这些土地集中在同一处

it'd be the size of South America.

大约相当于南美洲面积

The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures

第二片以咖啡色表示的区域是牧地

and rangelands, where our animals live.

及放牧区，动物生活于此

That area's about 30 million square kilometers,

这片区域大约3000万平方公里

or about an Africa's worth of land,

或相当于非洲面积

a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,

十分广大的土地，也是最肥沃的土地

is what you see. And what's left is, like,

如你们所见，其余部份为

the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,

撒哈拉沙漠、西伯利亚

or the middle of a rain forest.

或雨林深处

We're using a planet's worth of land already.

我们已使用了相当于整个地球的土地

If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent

如果我们仔细观察，将发现大约40%的

of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,

地表贡献于农业

and it's 60 times larger

比令我们

than all the areas we complain about,

怨声载道的居住地大60倍

our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.

包括郊区和大多数人类居住的城市

Half of humanity lives in cities today,

目前世上有半数人口居住于城市

but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.

但生产粮食的土地比人类居住地大60倍

So this is an amazing kind of result,

这是十分惊人的事实

and it really shocked us when we looked at that.

令观察到这一点的我们震惊不已

So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,

因此我们将十分广大的土地用于农业

but also we're using a lot of water.

但也因此消耗大量水源

This is a photograph flying into Arizona,

这是亚利桑那州空照图

and when you look at it, you're like,

当你目睹这幅景象时，会想

"What are they growing here?" It turns out

“他们在这里种什么？”事实上

they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert

他们在沙漠中种植莴苣

using water sprayed on top.

用喷洒方式供应水源

Now, the irony is, it's probably sold

讽刺的是，这些产品或许

in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.

正于双子城超市货架上贩售

But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come

但令人感趣的是，这些水源必定

from some place, and it comes from here,

来自某处－来自此处

the Colorado River in North America.

北美的科罗拉多河

Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,

好，这是1950年代科罗拉多河平日景象

this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,

如各位所见，没有洪水、没有干旱

kind of an average day, it looks something like this.

这是它平日的景象，如照片所示

But if we come back today, during a normal condition

但如果观察目前景观，这是在一般情况下

to the exact same location, this is what's left.

同一地点仅剩的水流

The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,

不同之处主要在于 河水用来灌溉沙漠中的作物

or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.

或斯科茨代尔的高尔夫场，随你想象

Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water

好，这得消耗大量水源 同样地，我们开采水源

and using it to grow food,

用于种植作物

and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,

如果现在朝科罗拉多河下游前进

it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.

它已完全干涸，不再流向海洋

We've literally consumed an entire river in North America

我们将北美整条河流消耗殆尽

for irrigation.

仅为了灌溉作物

Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.

好，这并非世上最糟的情况

This probably is: the Aral Sea.

最糟的情况或许发生在咸海

Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.

在座大多数人 或许记得地理课中曾经学过

This is in the former Soviet Union

它位于前苏联

in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,

介于哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克之间

one of the great inland seas of the world.

是世上最大的内陆湖之一

But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like

但其中有个吊诡处，因为它看起来

it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?

彷佛被沙漠包围，为何它会出现在此处？

The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,

它出现在此处的原因是，在右侧

you see two little rivers kind of coming down

你可以看见两条小河

through the sand, feeding this basin with water.

穿越沙漠，供应这片低洼处水源

Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains

河川汇集东部远处山脉的融雪

far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river

积雪融化后流向河川

through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.

穿越沙漠，形成广大的咸海

Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water

好，1950年代，苏联决定将河水改道

to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,

引入沙漠地带，种植棉花，信不信由你

in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets

引入哈萨克斯坦，将棉花贩卖到国际市场

to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.

替苏联赚取外汇

They really needed the money.

他们亟需这些收入

Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off

好，你可以想象会发生什么情况

the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?

截断咸海的水源会发生什么事？

Here it is in 1973,

这分别是1973年

1986,

1986年

1999,

1999年

2004,

2004年

and about 11 months ago.

和大约11个月前的情形

It's pretty extraordinary.

确实十分惊人

Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.

现场许多听众住在中西部

Imagine that was Lake Superior.

不妨将它想象成苏必利尔湖

Imagine that was Lake Huron.

想象成休伦湖

It's an extraordinary change.

这是十分惊人的改变

This is not only a change in water and

不仅是水量

where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals

或海岸线的改变 而是环境本质上的改变

of the environment of this region.

對这片区域來說

Let's start with this.

这么说吧

The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.

苏联没有塞拉俱乐部（环保团体）

Let's put it that way.

不妨以这个观点来看

So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.

因此你发现咸海底部不甚美观

There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things

存在许多毒性废弃物，许多物品

that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.

弃置于此，现在已逐渐分解到大气中

One of those small islands that was remote

其中一个离岸甚远

and impossible to get to was a site

难以抵达的小岛

of Soviet biological weapons testing.

曾经是苏联生化武器测试地点

You can walk there today.

现在你可以步行到那里

Weather patterns have changed.

气候形态已发生变化

Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only

咸海独有的20种鱼类中，有19种

in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.

已在地球上消失踪影

This is an environmental disaster writ large.

这是一场环境大浩劫

But let's bring it home.

我们试着深入了解一下

This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago

这是几年前戈尔 （美国前副总统）给我的一张照片

that he took when he was in the Soviet Union

他于苏联拍摄的景观

a long, long time ago,

很久很久以前

showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.

显示搁浅于咸海中的渔船队

You see the canal they dug?

你看见他们挖的水道吗？

They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into

他们费尽心力，试着让船漂浮在

the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up

仅剩的湖水中，但他们最后不得不放弃

because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't

因为码头和停泊处的开凿

keep up with the retreating shoreline.

无法跟上海岸线倒退的速度

I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future

我不知道你们的想法，但我担心未来

archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about

考古学家会挖出 这些东西，将这个时代的情形

our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"

写入历史 疑惑地想，“你们到底在想什么？”

Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.

好，这就是我们即将面临的未来

We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water

我们已使用了地球上现有的 50% 淡水

that's sustainable, and agriculture alone

光是农业部分

is 70 percent of that.

就占用了 70%

So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.

因此我们在农业上消耗许多水源和土地

We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.

我们也在农业上消耗许多大气

Usually when we think about the atmosphere,

当我们谈到大气时

we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,

通常会联想到气候变迁和温室气体

and mostly around energy,

大多与能源有关

but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters

但事实上，农业亦是

of greenhouse gases too.

温室气体最大来源之一

If you look at carbon dioxide from

如果考虑焚烧热带雨林

burning tropical rainforest,

所产生的二氧化碳

or methane coming from cows and rice,

或牛群和稻米所产生的甲烷

or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,

或大量肥料所产生的一氧化二氮

it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse

事实上，排放至大气层的温室气体

gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.

30% 来自农业，以人类活动来说

That's more than all our transportation.

远大于所有交通工具

It's more than all our electricity.

远大于所有电力设施

It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.

事实上远大于所有制造业的排放量

It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases

这是最大的单一温室气体来源

of any human activity in the world.

以所有人类活动来说

And yet, we don't talk about it very much.

然而我们很少提及这一点

So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture

因此我们目前面临的惊人事实是

dominating our planet,

农业主宰我们的地球

whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,

无论是占用地表 40% 的土地

70 percent of the water we use,

消耗 70% 的水源

30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.

产生 30% 的温室气体排放量

We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus

我们使逸散到全球环境中的氮、磷量倍增

around the world simply by using fertilizers,

仅因为肥料的使用

causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,

导致河川、湖泊

lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest

甚至海洋的水质产生严重问题，这也是导致

driver of biodiversity loss.

生物多样性丧失的最大因素

So without a doubt, agriculture is

因此，毫无疑问地，农业是

the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet

影响地球环境最大的力量

since the end of the ice age. No question.

自从冰河期结束后，毫无疑问

And it rivals climate change in importance.

它的重要性和气候变迁不相上下

And they're both happening at the same time.

两种危机同时发生

But what's really important here to remember is that

但我们必须记住十分重要的一点

it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.

农业并非一无是处，它并非坏事

In fact, we completely depend on it.

事实上我们的生存完全仰赖它

It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.

它并非可有可无之事 并非奢侈品，而是不可或缺的需求

We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,

我们必须生产粮食、饲料

fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people

纤维、甚至生物燃料 供应世上70亿人口所需

in the world today, and if anything,

总之

we're going to have the demands on agriculture

未来农业需求

increase into the future. It's not going to go away.

将逐渐增加，这个需求不会消失

It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of

只会与日俱增，主要原因在于

growing population. We're seven billion people today

人口成长，目前地球上有70亿人口

heading towards at least nine,

逐渐朝90亿大关迈进

probably nine and a half before we're done.

我们离开人世前，或许将成长为95亿人口

More importantly, changing diets.

更重要的是饮食结构的改变

As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous,

随着世界更加富裕、人口逐渐增加

we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat,

我们发现饮食中的肉类消耗与日俱增

which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does.

它所消耗的资源远大于蔬菜

So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff,

因此人口增加 消耗更多粮食、更多资源

and of course having an energy crisis at the same time,

当然同时导致能源危机的发生

where we have to replace oil with other energy sources

我们必须以其它能源取代石油

that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels

最终将必须包括某种生物燃料

and bio-energy sources.

和生质能源

So you put these together. It's really hard to see

因此，考虑这一切因素，实在很难想象

how we're going to get to the rest of the century

我们如何撑过这个世纪

without at least doubling global agricultural production.

如果无法使全球农产量倍增

Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to

好，我们如何达成这个目标？

double global ag production around the world?

如何使全球农产量倍增？

Well, we could try to farm more land.

好，我们可以试着开垦更多土地

This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where

这是我们所做的分析，左边是

the crops are today, on the right is where they could be

目前的农业用地，右边是

based on soils and climate, assuming climate change

根据土质和气候估算的 潜在农业用地，假设气候变迁

doesn't disrupt too much of this,

对此不会产生太大影响

which is not a good assumption.

这并非适当的假设

We could farm more land, but the problem is

我们可以开垦更多土地，但问题是

the remaining lands are in sensitive areas.

目前所剩的土地位于敏感区域

They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon,

其中存在庞大的生物多样性和大量碳资源

things we want to protect.

这是我们想保护的资源

So we could grow more food by expanding farmland,

因此我们可藉由扩展农地生产更多粮食

but we'd better not,

但最好别这么做

because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.

因为这对生态来说十分危险

Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint

此外，我们或许希望农业碳足迹不再攀升

of agriculture and farm the lands we have better.

以更佳方式利用土地

This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places

这张图是我们试着标出某些

in the world where we could improve yields

我们可提高农产量的地区

without harming the environment.

在不损害环境的前提下

The green areas here show where corn yields,

绿色部分代表玉米产区

just showing corn as an example,

显示以玉米来说

are already really high, probably the maximum you could

目前产量已相当高的地区，或许是目前世上

find on Earth today for that climate and soil,

产量最高的地区，以气候和土质来说

but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where

但咖啡色和黄色部份是

we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield

仅可获得 20% 或 30%

you should be able to get.

产量的地区

You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America,

你看见大部份位于非洲，甚至拉丁美洲

but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union

但令人感兴趣的是东欧，它曾经是苏联

and Eastern Bloc countries used to be,

与东欧共产国家所在地

is still a mess agriculturally.

农业发展仍十分落后

Now, this would require nutrients and water.

现在，这片区域需要养份和水源

It's going to either be organic or conventional

需藉由有机或传统耕作方式

or some mix of the two to deliver that.

或两者混合来供应这一切

Plants need water and nutrients.

植物需要水和养份

But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.

但我们能做到这一点，我们有成功的机会

But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive

但我们必须以某种

to meeting the food security needs of the future

兼顾未来粮食需求

and the environmental security needs of the future.

及未来环境安全的方式进行

We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between

我们必须找出一个权衡之计

growing food and having a healthy environment work better.

使粮食生产与环境健康相辅相成

Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition.

现在我们面临两难的情况

We can grow food in the background --

我们可以种植粮食－

that's a soybean field —

如背景中的黄豆田

and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food,

这个花朵型图表显示我们种植许多作物

but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing

但缺乏大量洁净水源，我们没有

a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity.

庞大的碳资源和生物多样性

In the foreground, we have this prairie

拥有照片中的大草原

that's wonderful from the environmental side,

是件好事，以环境角度来看

but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?

但你无法藉此填饱肚子，没有可吃的东西

We need to figure out how to bring both of those together

我们必须找出两全其美的

into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.

新型耕作方式，使两者相辅相成

Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me,

现在，当我谈到这一点时，人们总是说

"Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food,

“嗯，不是已有解决之道？” －有机食物

local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills --

当地食材、基因改造作物 新贸易补贴法案、新农业法案－

and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here,

确实，我们拥有许多好方法

but not any one of these is a silver bullet.

但没有一个是银弹（解决一切的方案）

In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot.

事实上，我更希望解决之道是银猎枪弹

And I love silver buckshot. You put it together

我喜爱银猎枪弹， 结合所有方法

and you've got something really powerful,

得到十分强大的力量

but we need to put them together.

但我们必须将它们彼此结合

So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind

因此我认为，我们必须做的是发明一种

of agriculture that blends the best ideas

新型农业，同时满足

of commercial agriculture and the green revolution

商业性农业和绿色革命需求

with the best ideas of organic farming and local food

使有机农业、当地食材

and the best ideas of environmental conservation,

和环境保护形成最佳结合

not to have them fighting each other but to have them

使它们不至于彼此冲突，而是使它们

collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture,

相辅相成地形成一种新型农业

something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.

我称之为“terraculture”，或全球耕作

Now, having this conversation has been really hard,

现在，进行这样的沟通十分困难

and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points

我们费尽心力地向大众传播这个重要观点

to people to reduce the controversy,

减少争议

to increase the collaboration.

促进合作

I want to show you a short video that does kind of show

我想展示一段短片，让你们确实了解

our efforts right now to bring these sides together

我们目前所做的努力，使大家拥有

into a single conversation. So let me show you that.

相同的理念，请看影片

(Music)

（音乐）

("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover")

明尼苏达大学环境研究所：致力探索

(Music)

（音乐）

("The world population is growing

全球人口

by 75 million people each year.

每年增加7500万

That's almost the size of Germany.

几乎相当于德国总人口

Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.

目前全球人口将近70亿

At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040.

以这样的速率增长 2040年全球将拥有90亿人口

And we all need food.

每个人都需要粮食

But how?

但从何而来？

How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet?

我们该如何喂饱 逐渐增长的人口，而不对地球造成破坏？

We already know climate change is a big problem.

我们已知气候变迁是个大问题

But it's not the only problem.

但它并非唯一的问题

We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.'

我们必须面对“另一个棘手的事实”

A global crisis in agriculture.

全球农业危机

Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources.

人口成长＋肉类消耗＋乳类消耗＋能源消耗 ＋生质能源生产＝自然资源面临的压力

More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture.

超过 40% 的地表已开发为农地

Global croplands cover 16 million km².

全球农地超过1600万平方公里

That's almost the size of South America.

几乎相当于南美洲面积

Global pastures cover 30 million km².

全球牧地超过3000万平方公里

That's the size of Africa.

相当于非洲面积

Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined.

农业占用面积为都市和郊区总和的60倍

Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet.

灌溉消耗的水源为世界之首

We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year.

每年用于灌溉作物的 水量相当于2800立方公里

That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day.

足以每天装满7305栋帝国大厦

Today, many large rivers have reduced flows.

目前许多大型河川流量减少

Some dry up altogether.

有些早已干涸

Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert.

看看咸海，现在已变成沙漠

Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean.

科罗拉多河不再流向大海

Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment.

肥料使环境中的磷和氮倍增

The consequence?

结果如何？

Widespread water pollution

造成大范围的水污染

and massive degradation of lakes and rivers.

使湖泊及河川水质严重恶化

Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change.

令人惊讶的是 农业是造成气候变迁的最大因素

It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.

30% 的温室气体由农业产生

That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry,

排放量超过所有电力设施和工业

or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles.

或全球飞机、火车和汽车的排放量

Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation,

大部份农业排放量来自于热带树林的砍伐

methane from animals and rice fields,

动物和稻田产生的甲烷

and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.

过量施肥产生的一氧化二氮

There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture.

农业是改变世界的最大因素

And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival.

我们的做法是影响人类生存的关键

Here's the dilemma...

我们面临的困境是…

As the world grows by several billion more people,

当全球人口增加数十亿时

We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production.

我们需要两倍、甚至三倍的粮食产量

So where do we go from here?

我们将何去何从？

We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue.

我们必须进行 更大规模的沟通、全球性的对话

We need to invest in real solutions:

我们必须采取真正的解决之道：

incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation,

鼓励农民、精致农业 新型作物、滴水灌溉系统

gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets.

废水回收利用 更佳的耕作方式、更睿智的饮食型态

We need everyone at the table.

我们需要所有人共同参与

Advocates of commercial agriculture,

提倡商业性农业

environmental conservation,

环境保护

and organic farming...

及有机耕作…

must work together.

必须同时进行

There is no single solution.

这个困境没有单一解决方案

We need collaboration,

我们必须携手合作

imagination,

发挥想象力

determination,

下定决心

because failure is not an option.

因为我们没有失败的余地

How do we feed the world without destroying it?

如何在不破坏地球的情况下喂饱全世界？

Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges

因此我们正面临人类历史中

in all of human history today:

最大的挑战之一：

the need to feed nine billion people

满足90亿人口的粮食需求

and do so sustainably and equitably and justly,

藉由稳定、公平、公正的方式

at the same time protecting our planet

同时保护我们的地球

for this and future generations.

替这一代及后代子孙

This is going to be one of the hardest things

这将是人类历史中

we ever have done in human history,

最困难的挑战之一

and we absolutely have to get it right,

我们必须以正确方式进行

and we have to get it right on our first and only try.

我们必须把握这仅有的机会

So thanks very much. (Applause)

十分感谢（掌声）