Yasheng Huang: Does democracy stifle economic growth?

80,263 views ・ 2011-09-12

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Kyo young Chu κ²€ν† : chang bong jin
00:15
My topic
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μ œκ°€ λ§ν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” μ£Όμ œλŠ”
00:17
is economic growth in China and India.
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쀑ꡭ과 μΈλ„μ˜ 경제 μ„±μž₯μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:20
And the question I want to explore with you
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그리고 μ œκ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ³Ό ν•¨κ»˜
00:23
is whether or not
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μ•Œμ•„λ³Ό λ¬Έμ œλŠ”
00:25
democracy has helped or has hindered
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λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜κ°€ κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯에
00:28
economic growth.
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도움이 λ˜μ—ˆλŠ”κ°€, μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ λ°©ν•΄κ°€ λ˜μ—ˆλŠ”κ°€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:30
You may say this is not fair,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€
00:32
because I'm selecting two countries
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μ œκ°€ λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜μ— λ°˜λŒ€ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λ‘€λ‘œ 이 두 λ‚˜λΌλ₯Ό νƒν–ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—,
00:35
to make a case against democracy.
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이게 κ³΅μ •ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜μ‹€μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:38
Actually, exactly the opposite
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ, μ œκ°€ ν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 것은
00:41
is what I'm going to do.
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μ •λ°˜λŒ€μ˜ μΌμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:43
I'm going to use these two countries
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μ „ μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 이 두 λ‚˜λΌμ˜ 예λ₯Ό μ΄μš©ν•˜μ—¬
00:45
to make an economic argument for democracy,
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λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜μ— λ°˜ν•˜λŠ” κ²½μ œμ— λŒ€ν•œ μ£Όμž₯이 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ,
00:48
rather than against democracy.
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민주주의λ₯Ό λ’·λ°›μΉ¨ν•˜λŠ” μ£Όμž₯을 λ“€μ–΄λ“œλ¦΄κΉŒ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:51
The first question there
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κ·Έ 첫번째 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€
00:53
is why China has grown so much faster
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μ™œ 쀑ꡭ이 인도보닀 훨씬 더 빨리
00:55
than India.
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μ„±μž₯ν–ˆλŠ”κ°€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:57
Over the last 30 years,
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μ§€λ‚œ 30λ…„ κ°„
00:59
in terms of the GDP growth rates,
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GDP μ„±μž₯λ₯ μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
01:02
China has grown at twice the rate of India.
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쀑ꡭ은 인도보닀 2λ°°λ‚˜ λΉ λ₯Έ μ„±μž₯을 λ³΄μ—¬μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:06
In the last five years,
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μ§€λ‚œ 5λ…„ κ°„
01:08
the two countries have begun to converge somewhat
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두 λ‚˜λΌμ˜ 경제 μ„±μž₯은
01:11
in economic growth.
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λΉ„μŠ·ν•΄μ§€κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:13
But over the last 30 years,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ§€λ‚œ 30λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ€
01:15
China undoubtedly
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쀑ꡭ이 μ˜μ‹¬ν•  여지도 없이
01:17
has done much better than India.
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인도보닀 훨씬 더 빨리 μ„±μž₯ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:20
One simple answer
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κ°„λ‹¨ν•œ 닡은
01:22
is China has Shanghai and India has Mumbai.
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쀑ꡭ엔 μƒν•˜μ΄κ°€ 있고, 인도엔 뭄바이가 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:25
Look at the skyline of Shanghai.
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μƒν•˜μ΄μ˜ 야경을 ν•œ 번 λ³΄μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€
01:28
This is the Pudong area.
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μ—¬κΈ΄ ν‘Έλ™μ§€μ—­μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:30
The picture on India
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이 사진은
01:32
is the Dharavi slum of Mumbai
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인도 λ­„λ°”μ΄μ˜
01:34
in India.
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닀라비 λΉˆλ―Όκ°€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:36
The idea there
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이 두 μ‚¬μ§„μ˜ 이면에
01:38
behind these two pictures
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μˆ¨κ²¨μ§„ μ˜λ―ΈλŠ”
01:40
is that the Chinese government
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쀑ꡭ μ •λΆ€λŠ” 법 보닀 높은
01:42
can act above rule of law.
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κΆŒν•œμ„ 가지고 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:44
It can plan
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μ΄λŠ” κ΅­κ°€μ˜ μž₯기적 이읡을 보고
01:46
for the long-term benefits of the country
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κ³„νšν•˜λŠ” 것을 κ°€λŠ₯ν•˜κ²Œ ν•˜κ³ ,
01:48
and in the process,
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κ·Έ κ³Όμ •μ—μ„œ
01:50
evict millions of people --
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수 백만의 주민듀을 ν‡΄κ±°μ‹œν‚¬ 수 있게 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:52
that's just a small technical issue.
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이건 단지 μž‘μ€ 기술적인 문제일 뿐이죠
01:55
Whereas in India, you cannot do that,
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λ°˜λ©΄μ— μΈλ„μ—μ„œλŠ” 그럴 수 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:57
because you have to listen to the public.
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ κ΅­λ―Όλ“€μ˜ μ˜κ²¬μ„ λ°˜μ˜ν•΄μ•Όν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:00
You're being constrained by the public's opinion.
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κ΅­κ°€λŠ” 곡곡의 μ˜κ²¬μ— μ˜ν•΄ μ œν•œμ„ λ°›μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:02
Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
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인도 μˆ˜μƒμΈ 만λͺ¨ν•œ μ‹±μ‘°μ°¨
02:05
agrees with that view.
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이λ₯Ό μΈμ •ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:07
In an interview
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μΈλ„μ˜ κ²½μ œμ§€μ— μ‹€λ¦°
02:09
printed in the financial press of India,
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ν•œ μΈν„°λ·°μ—μ„œ
02:11
He said that he wants to make Mumbai
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κ·ΈλŠ” 뭄바이λ₯Ό 또 λ‹€λ₯Έ μƒν•˜μ΄λ‘œ
02:14
another Shanghai.
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λ§Œλ“€κ³  μ‹Άλ‹€κ³  λ§ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:16
This is an Oxford-trained economist
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싱은 μ˜₯μŠ€ν¬λ“œμ—μ„œ κ³΅λΆ€ν•œ
02:19
steeped in humanistic values,
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인본주의적 κ°€μΉ˜μ— 흠뻑 젖은 κ²½μ œν•™μžμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:23
and yet he agrees
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그런 κ·Έ 쑰차도 μƒν•˜μ΄μ˜
02:25
with the high-pressure tactics of Shanghai.
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강도 높은 μ „λž΅μ— λ™μ˜λ₯Ό ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:29
So let me call it the Shanghai model of economic growth,
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경제 λ°œμ „μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
02:32
that emphasizes the following features
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μ‚¬νšŒκΈ°λ°˜μ‹œμ„€, 곡항,
02:36
for promoting economic development:
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κ³ μ†λ„λ‘œ, ꡐ각 같은 μ‹œμ„€μ„
02:38
infrastructures, airports,
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κ°•μ‘°ν•˜λŠ” 경제λ₯Ό
02:40
highways, bridges, things like that.
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μ΄μ œλΆ€ν„° μƒν•˜μ΄μ˜ κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯λͺ¨λΈμ΄λΌκ³  λΆ€λ₯΄λ„둝 ν•˜κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:43
And you need a strong government to do that,
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그러기 μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” κ°•λ ₯ν•œ μ •λΆ€κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:46
because you cannot respect private property rights.
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 개인의 μž¬μ‚°κΆŒμ„ 보μž₯해주지 μ•Šμ•„λ„ 되기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
02:49
You cannot be constrained by the public's opinion.
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λŒ€μ€‘λ“€μ˜ μ˜κ²¬μ— νœ˜λ‘˜λ¦¬μ§€ μ•Šμ•„λ„ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:52
You need also state ownership,
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인프라λ₯Ό μ•„μ£Ό 빨리 κ±΄μ„€ν•˜λ €λ©΄
02:54
especially of land assets,
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뢀동산에 λŒ€ν•œ
02:57
in order to build and roll out infrastructures
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주의 μ†Œμœ κΆŒ λ˜ν•œ
03:00
very quickly.
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ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:02
The implication of that model
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이 경제λͺ¨λΈμ΄ μ•”μ‹œν•˜λŠ” λ°”λŠ”
03:04
is that democracy
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λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜κ°€
03:06
is a hindrance for economic growth,
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경제 μ„±μž₯에 도움이 되기 λ³΄λ‹€λŠ”
03:08
rather than a facilitator of economic growth.
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μž₯μ• κ°€ λœλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:12
Here's the key question.
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이제 μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ„ λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:14
Just how important are infrastructures
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인프라가 κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
03:17
for economic growth?
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μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„λ‘œ μ€‘μš”ν• κΉŒμš”?
03:19
This is a key issue.
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이게 λ°”λ‘œ μ£Όμš” μŸμ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:21
If you believe that infrastructures are very important for economic growth,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ 인프라가 κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ μ•„μ£Ό μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜μ‹ λ‹€λ©΄,
03:25
then you would argue a strong government is necessary
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μ„±μž₯을 μ΄‰μ§„μ‹œν‚€κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ 큰 μ •λΆ€κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³ 
03:28
to promote growth.
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μ£Όμž₯ν•˜μ‹€κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:30
If you believe
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또 λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„œ
03:32
that infrastructures are not as important as many people believe,
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인프라가 λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒλ§ŒνΌ μ€‘μš”ν•˜μ§€λŠ” μ•Šλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜μ‹ λ‹€λ©΄,
03:35
then you will put less emphasis
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큰 μ •λΆ€λ₯Ό
03:37
on strong government.
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덜 κ°•μ‘°ν•˜μ‹€κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:39
So to illustrate that question,
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이 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ„ μ„€λͺ…λ“œλ¦¬κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ
03:41
let me give you two countries.
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두 λ‚˜λΌλ₯Ό 예둜 λ“€μ–΄λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:43
And for the sake of brevity,
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κ°„λž΅νžˆ μ„€λͺ…λ“œλ¦¬κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ,
03:45
I'll call one country Country 1
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ν•œ κ΅­κ°€λŠ” 'λ‚˜λΌ1',
03:47
and the other country Country 2.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌλŠ” 'λ‚˜λΌ2'라고 λΆ€λ₯΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:49
Country 1
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'λ‚˜λΌ1'은
03:51
has a systematic advantage over Country 2
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인프라에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 'λ‚˜λΌ2'보닀
03:54
in infrastructures.
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ꡬ쑰적인 이점이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
03:56
Country 1 has more telephones,
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'λ‚˜λΌ1'μ—λŠ” 더 λ§Žμ€ 전화기와
03:59
and Country 1 has a longer system of railways.
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더 κΈ΄ 철도망이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:02
So if I were to ask you,
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λ§Œμ•½μ— μ œκ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜
04:05
"Which is China
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"μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ 쀑ꡭ이고
04:07
and which is India,
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μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ μΈλ„μž…λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
04:09
and which country has grown faster?"
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또 μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ 더 빨리 μ„±μž₯ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?"라고 여쭀봀을 λ•Œ,
04:11
if you believe in the infrastructure view,
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인프라λ₯Ό μ€‘μš”μ‹œν•˜λŠ” 관점을 가지셨닀면
04:14
then you will say, "Country 1 must be China.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ μ•„λ§ˆ "'λ‚˜λΌ1'이 μ€‘κ΅­μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:17
They must have done better, in terms of economic growth.
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경제 μ„±μž₯에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 더 λΉ λ₯Έ μ„±μž₯을 λ³΄μ˜€μ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:19
And Country 2 is possibly India."
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그리고 'λ‚˜λΌ2'κ°€ μΈλ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€"라고 λŒ€λ‹΅ν•˜μ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:23
Actually the country with more telephones
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사싀 더 λ§Žμ€ μ „ν™”κΈ°λ₯Ό λ³΄μœ ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” λ‚˜λΌλŠ”
04:26
is the Soviet Union,
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μ†ŒλΉ„μ—νŠΈ μ—°λ°©(μ†Œλ ¨)이고,
04:28
and the data referred to 1989.
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이 μžλ£ŒλŠ” 1989λ…„μ˜ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:31
After the country reported very impressive statistics on telephones,
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μ†Œλ ¨μ΄ 전화기에 λŒ€ν•œ 인상적인 ν†΅κ³„μžλ£Œλ₯Ό 남긴 ν›„,
04:36
the country collapsed.
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κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌλŠ” λ¬΄λ„ˆμ‘ŒμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:39
That's not too good.
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λ³„λ‘œ 쒋진 μ•Šκ΅°μš”
04:41
The picture there is Khrushchev.
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저건 ν›„λ₯΄μ‹œμ΄ˆν”„μ˜ μ‚¬μ§„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:43
I know that in 1989
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1989λ…„μ—λŠ”
04:45
he no longer ruled the Soviet Union,
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κ·Έκ°€ μ†Œλ ¨μ„ ν†΅μΉ˜ν•˜κ³  μžˆμ§„ μ•Šμ•˜μ§€λ§Œ,
04:47
but that's the best picture that I can find.
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μ €κ²Œ μ œκ°€ 찾은 사진 쀑 κ°€μž₯ 쒋은 κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:50
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
04:52
Telephones, infrastructures
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전화기와, μΈν”„λΌλŠ”
04:54
do not guarantee you economic growth.
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κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯을 보μž₯ν•˜μ§„ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:56
Country 2, that has fewer telephones,
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더 적은 μ „ν™”κΈ°λ₯Ό λ³΄μœ ν•œ 'λ‚˜λΌ2'κ°€
04:59
is China.
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μ€‘κ΅­μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:01
Since 1989,
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1989λ…„ λΆ€ν„°
05:03
the country has performed at a double-digit rate
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μ§€λ‚œ 20λ…„ κ°„ 쀑ꡭ은
05:05
every year for the last 20 years.
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맀년 두 자릿수의 μ„±μž₯λ₯ μ„ λ³΄μ—¬μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:08
If you know nothing about China and the Soviet Union
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„œ 쀑ꡭ과 μ†Œλ ¨μ— λŒ€ν•΄
05:11
other than the fact about their telephones,
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μ „ν™”κΈ° λ³΄μœ μœ¨μ— λŒ€ν•œ μžλ£Œλ°–μ— μ•„λŠ” 것이 μ—†λ‹€λ©΄,
05:14
you would have made a poor prediction
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λ‹€μŒ 20λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ˜
05:16
about their economic growth
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두 κ΅­κ°€μ˜ κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ
05:18
in the next two decades.
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ν„°λ¬΄λ‹ˆμ—†λŠ” μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ ν•˜μ…¨μ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:20
Country 1, that has a longer system of railways,
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더 κΈ΄ 철도망을 λ³΄μœ ν•œ 'λ‚˜λΌ1'은
05:23
is actually India.
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사싀 μΈλ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:25
And Country 2 is China.
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그리고 'λ‚˜λΌ2'λŠ” μ€‘κ΅­μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:28
This is a very little known fact
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μ΄λŠ” 두 λ‚˜λΌμ— λŒ€ν•΄
05:31
about the two countries.
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거의 μ•Œλ €μ§€μ§€ μ•Šμ€ μ‚¬μ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:33
Yes, today China has a huge infrastructure advantage
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λ„€, μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  쀑ꡭ은 인도에 λΉ„ν•΄
05:35
over India.
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더 큰 인프라적 이점을 κ°–κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:37
But for many years,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 1990λ…„λŒ€ ν›„λ°˜κΉŒμ§€
05:39
until the late 1990s,
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수 λ…„ κ°„
05:41
China had an infrastructure disadvantage
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쀑ꡭ은 인도에 λΉ„ν•΄
05:43
vis-a-vis India.
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인프라 μ‹œμ„€μ΄ 쒋지 μ•Šμ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:45
In developing countries,
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κ°œλ°œλ„μƒκ΅­μ—μ„œ
05:47
the most common mode of transportation
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κ°€μž₯ ν”ν•œ κ΅ν†΅μˆ˜λ‹¨μ€
05:50
is the railways,
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철도인데,
05:52
and the British built a lot of railways in India.
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영ꡭ이 인도에 철도망을 많이 κ±΄μ„€ν•΄λ†¨μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:55
India is the smaller of the two countries,
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μΈλ„λŠ” 쀑ꡭ 보닀 μž‘μ€ λ‚˜λΌμ˜€μ§€λ§Œ,
05:58
and yet it had a longer system of railways
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1990λ…„ λŒ€ ν›„λ°˜κΉŒμ§€
06:01
until the late 1990s.
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더 κΈ΄ 철도망을 λ³΄μœ ν•˜κ³  μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:03
So clearly,
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μ•„μ£Ό λͺ…λ°±ν•˜κ²Œλ„
06:05
infrastructure doesn't explain
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인프라λ₯Ό 톡해 μ™œ 1990λ…„ λŒ€ ν›„λ°˜ 쀑ꡭ이
06:07
why China did better before the late 1990s,
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인도보닀 μ„±μž₯이 λΉ¨λžλŠ”μ§€λŠ”
06:10
as compared with India.
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μ„€λͺ…λ˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:12
In fact, if you look at the evidence worldwide,
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사싀 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„œ μ „μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚˜λŠ” 징후λ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄μ‹ λ‹€λ©΄,
06:16
the evidence is more supportive of the view
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κ·Έ 징후듀은 μΈν”„λΌλŠ” μ‹€μ œλ‘œ κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯에 μˆ˜λ°˜λ˜λŠ” κ²°κ³ΌλΌλŠ” 관점을
06:19
that the infrastructure are actually the result of economic growth.
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λ”μš± λ’·λ°›μΉ¨ν•œλ‹€κ³  λ³Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:23
The economy grows,
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인프라가 경제 μ„±μž₯의 원인이 λ˜λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ,
06:25
government accumulates more resources,
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κ²½μ œκ°€ μ„±μž₯ν•˜κ³ ,
06:27
and the government can invest in infrastructure --
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μ •λΆ€λŠ” 더 λ§Žμ€ μžμ›μ„ λͺ¨μ•„μ„œ
06:30
rather than infrastructure being a cause
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인프라에 투자λ₯Ό ν•  수 있게
06:33
for economic growth.
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λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:35
And this is clearly the story
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그리고 이게 λ°”λ‘œ
06:37
of the Chinese economic growth.
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μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ 경제 μ„±μž₯에 κ΄€ν•œ μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:40
Let me look at this question more directly.
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이 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ’€ 더 μ§μ ‘μ μœΌλ‘œ λ“€μ—¬λ‹€ λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:42
Is democracy bad for economic growth?
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λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜κ°€ 경제 μ„±μž₯에 쒋지 μ•Šμ€ κ²ƒμΌκΉŒμš”?
06:45
Now let's turn to two countries,
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그럼 λ‹€μ‹œ 두 λ‚˜λΌ,
06:47
Country A and Country B.
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'λ‚˜λΌA'와 'λ‚˜λΌB'둜 λŒμ•„μ˜€κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:50
Country A, in 1990,
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1990λ…„ 'λ‚˜λΌA'λŠ”
06:52
had about $300 per capita GDP
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μ—°κ°„ 1인당 GDPκ°€ 300λ‹¬λŸ¬μ˜€κ³ ,
06:55
as compared with Country B,
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이에 λΉ„ν•΄ 'λ‚˜λΌB'λŠ”
06:57
which had $460 in per capita GDP.
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460λ‹¬λŸ¬μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:00
By 2008,
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2008년이 되자
07:02
Country A has surpassed Country B
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'λ‚˜λΌA'λŠ” μ—°κ°„ 700λ‹¬λŸ¬μ˜ 1인당 GDP둜
07:05
with $700 per capita GDP
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'λ‚˜λΌB'의 1인당 GDP 650λ‹¬λŸ¬λ₯Ό
07:08
as compared with $650 per capita GDP.
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μΆ”μ›”ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:12
Both countries are in Asia.
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두 λ‚˜λΌ λͺ¨λ‘ μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ— μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:14
If I were to ask you,
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μ œκ°€ λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€κ»˜
07:16
"Which are the two Asian countries?
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"μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ˜ 이 두 λ‚˜λΌλŠ” μ–΄λ””μΌκΉŒμš”?
07:18
And which one is a democracy?"
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또 μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ 민주주의 κ΅­κ°€μΌκΉŒμš”?"라고 λ¬»λŠ”λ‹€λ©΄
07:20
you may argue,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„  μ•„λ§ˆ
07:22
"Well, maybe Country A is China
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"흠, 'λ‚˜λΌA'κ°€ 쀑ꡭ이고
07:24
and Country B is India."
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'λ‚˜λΌB'κ°€ μΈλ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€"라고 ν•˜μ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:26
In fact, Country A
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œλŠ” 'λ‚˜λΌA'κ°€
07:28
is democratic India,
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민주주의 ꡭ가인 인도이고,
07:30
and Country B is Pakistan --
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'λ‚˜λΌB'λŠ”
07:33
the country that has a long period
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였랜 κΈ°κ°„ κ΅°λΆ€μ˜ ν†΅μΉ˜λ₯Ό 받은
07:35
of military rule.
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νŒŒν‚€μŠ€νƒ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:37
And it's very common
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 인도와 쀑ꡭ을
07:39
that we compare India with China.
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λΉ„κ΅ν•˜λŠ” 건 맀우 λΉˆλ²ˆν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:43
That's because the two countries
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μ΄μœ λŠ” λ°”λ‘œ 두 λ‚˜λΌμ˜ 인ꡬ가
07:45
have about the same population size.
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λΉ„μŠ·ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
07:48
But the more natural comparison
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 인도와 νŒŒν‚€μŠ€νƒ„μ˜ 비ꡐ가
07:50
is actually between India and Pakistan.
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사싀 더 μžμ—°μŠ€λŸ½μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:52
Those two countries are geographically similar.
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이 두 λ‚˜λΌλŠ” λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ 곳에 μœ„μΉ˜ν•΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:55
They have a complicated, but shared common history.
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그리고 λ³΅μž‘ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ κ³΅ν†΅μ˜ 역사도 있죠
07:59
By that comparison,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬ν•œ 비ꡐ에선
08:01
democracy looks very, very good
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경제 μ„±μž₯의 μΈ‘λ©΄μ—μ„œ
08:03
in terms of economic growth.
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λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜λŠ” μ•„μ£Ό μ’‹κ²Œ λ³΄μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:06
So why do economists fall in love
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ μ™œ κ²½μ œν•™μžλ“€μ΄
08:09
with authoritarian governments?
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μ „μ œμ£Όμ˜ 정뢀와 μ‚¬λž‘μ— λΉ μ§€κ²Œ 된 κ²ƒμΌκΉŒμš”?
08:12
One reason is the East Asian Model.
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첫 번째 μ΄μœ λŠ” λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ˜ λͺ¨λΈ λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:14
In East Asia,
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λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ—λŠ”
08:16
we have had successful economic growth stories
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λŒ€ν•œλ―Όκ΅­, λŒ€λ§Œ,
08:19
such as Korea, Taiwan,
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홍콩, 그리고 싱가포λ₯΄ 같은
08:21
Hong Kong and Singapore.
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성곡적인 경제 μ„±μž₯의 사둀가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:23
Some of these economies
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이 κ΅­κ°€λ“€ 쀑 μΌλΆ€λŠ”
08:25
were ruled by authoritarian governments
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1960λ…„ λŒ€λΆ€ν„° 80λ…„ λŒ€κΉŒμ§€
08:27
in the 60s and 70s
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λ…μž¬ μ •λΆ€κ°€ ν†΅μΉ˜ν•œ
08:29
and 1980s.
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λ‚˜λΌλ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:31
The problem with that view
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 관점에 λŒ€ν•œ λ¬Έμ œμ μ€
08:33
is like asking all the winners of lotteries,
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λ³΅κΆŒμ— λ‹Ήμ²¨λœ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œλ§Œ
08:36
"Have you won the lottery?"
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"λ³΅κΆŒμ— λ‹Ήμ²¨λ˜μ‹  적이 μΈλ‚˜μš”?"라고 λ¬»λŠ” 것과 κ°™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:39
And they all tell you, "Yes, we have won the lottery."
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그러면 λͺ¨λ“  μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ "λ„€, λ³΅κΆŒμ— λ‹Ήμ²¨λμ–΄μš”"라고 ν•˜κ² μ£ 
08:41
And then you draw the conclusion
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그리고 λ‚˜μ„œ λ³΅κΆŒμ—
08:43
the odds of winning the lottery
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당첨될 ν™•λ₯ μ„ 100%λ‹€ 라고
08:46
are 100 percent.
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결둠을 λ‚΄λ¦¬λŠ” 것이죠
08:48
The reason is you never go
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κ·Έ μ΄μœ λŠ” λ³΅κΆŒμ€ μƒ€μ§€λ§Œ
08:50
and bother to ask the losers
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λ‹Ήμ²¨λ˜μ§€ λͺ»ν•œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ
08:52
who also purchased lottery tickets
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κ°€μ„œ λ¬»λŠ” 수고λ₯Ό
08:54
and didn't end up winning the prize.
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μ ˆλŒ€λ‘œ 듀이지 μ•ŠκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
08:58
For each of these successful authoritarian governments
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λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ˜ λͺ¨λ“  μ„±κ³΅ν•œ λ…μž¬μ •λΆ€μ—λŠ”
09:01
in East Asia,
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그에 λ°˜ν•΄
09:03
there's a matched failure.
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μ‹€νŒ¨ν•œ λ‚˜λΌλ“€λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:06
Korea succeeded, North Korea didn't.
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λ‚¨ν•œμ€ μ„±κ³΅ν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ λΆν•˜λŠ” μ‹€νŒ¨ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:09
Taiwan succeeded, China under Mao Zedong didn't.
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λŒ€λ§Œμ€ μ„±κ³΅ν–ˆκ³ , 마였쩌λ‘₯ 이 ν†΅μΉ˜ν•œ 쀑ꡭ은 μ‹€νŒ¨ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:12
Burma didn't succeed.
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λ―Έμ•ˆλ§ˆλ„ μ„±κ³΅ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:14
The Philippines didn't succeed.
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필리핀도 μ„±κ³΅ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:16
If you look at the statistical evidence worldwide,
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μ „ μ„Έκ³„μ˜ ν†΅κ³„μžλ£Œλ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³Έλ‹€λ©΄,
09:19
there's really no support for the idea
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경제 μ„±μž₯의 κ΄€μ μ—μ„œ
09:22
that authoritarian governments
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μ „μ œμ£Όμ˜ μ •λΆ€κ°€
09:24
hold a systematic edge over democracies
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민주주의 정뢀보닀 이점이 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ±Έ
09:27
in terms of economic growth.
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λ’·λ°›μΉ¨ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” μ¦κ±°λŠ” μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:29
So the East Asian model
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„ λͺ¨ν˜•μ€
09:31
has this massive selection bias --
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선택에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 큰 편ν–₯이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:33
it is known as selecting on a dependent variable,
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이 편ν–₯은 저희가 항상 ν•™μƒλ“€μ—κ²Œ ν”Όν•΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜λŠ”
09:36
something we always tell our students to avoid.
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μ’…μ†λ³€μˆ˜μ˜ 선택이라고 λ§ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:40
So exactly why did China grow so much faster?
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ μ •ν™•νžˆ μ™œ 쀑ꡭ이 훨씬 더 빨리 μ„±μž₯ν–ˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
09:45
I will take you to the Cultural Revolution,
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μ œκ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€μ„ 쀑ꡭ이 λ―Έμ³€μ—ˆλ˜
09:47
when China went mad,
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λ¬Έν™” 혁λͺ… λ‹Ήμ‹œλ‘œ λͺ¨μ‹œκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:49
and compare that country's performance with India
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그리고 κ·Έ λ‹Ήμ‹œ μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ 싀적을
09:52
under Indira Gandhi.
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인닀라 κ°„λ”” ν•˜μ˜ 인도와 비ꡐ해 λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:54
The question there is: Which country did better,
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œμ˜ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€
09:57
China or India?
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인도와 쀑ꡭ 쀑 μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ 더 μž˜ν–ˆλŠλƒλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:59
China was during the Cultural Revolution.
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쀑ꡭ은 λ¬Έν™” 혁λͺ… μ€‘μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:01
It turns out even during the Cultural Revolution,
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λ¬Έν™” 혁λͺ… λ‹Ήμ‹œμ— 쑰차도
10:03
China out-perfomed India
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쀑ꡭ이 GDP μ„±μž₯,
10:05
in terms of GDP growth
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κ·Έ μ€‘μ—μ„œλ„ 1인당 GDPμ—μ„œ
10:07
by an average of about 2.2 percent every year
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맀년 평균 2.2%p 둜
10:10
in terms of per capita GDP.
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인도λ₯Ό μ•žμ„°μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:13
So that's when China was mad.
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κ·Έλ•ŒλŠ” 쀑ꡭ이 μ œλŒ€λ‘œ λŒμ•„κ°€μ§€ μ•Šμ„ λ•Œμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:15
The whole country went mad.
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λ‚˜λΌ 전체가 μ—‰λ§μ΄μ—ˆμ£ 
10:18
It must mean that the country
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κ·Έ 말인 μ¦‰μŠ¨, 쀑ꡭ이
10:20
had something so advantageous to itself in terms of economic growth
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λ¬Έν™” 혁λͺ…μ˜ 뢀정적인 νš¨κ³Όλ§ˆμ € 무λ ₯ν™” μ‹œν‚¬ 수 μžˆμ„ 만큼의
10:24
to overcome the negative effects
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경제 μ„±μž₯에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ μ•„μ£Ό 이득이 λ˜λŠ”
10:27
of the Cultural Revolution.
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무언가가 μžˆμ—ˆλ‹¨ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:29
The advantage the country had
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κ·Έ 이점은 λ°”λ‘œ
10:31
was human capital --
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인λ ₯μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:34
nothing else but human capital.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ 것이 μ•„λ‹Œ λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έ 노동λ ₯μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:36
This is the world development index indicator data
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이 μžλ£ŒλŠ” 1990λ…„ λŒ€ 초의
10:40
in the early 1990s.
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세계 λ°œμ „ μ§€μˆ˜ μ§€ν‘œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:42
And this is the earliest data that I can find.
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이게 μ œκ°€ 찾을 수 μžˆλŠ” κ°€μž₯ 였래된 μžλ£Œμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:45
The adult literacy rate in China
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μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ 성인 μ‹μžμœ¨μ€
10:48
is 77 percent
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77%인데 λΉ„ν•΄
10:50
as compared with 48 percent in India.
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μΈλ„λŠ” 48%μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:53
The contrast in literacy rates
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μ‹μžμœ¨μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œμ˜ μ°¨μ΄λŠ”
10:56
is especially sharp
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쀑ꡭ μ—¬μ„±κ³Ό 인도 여성을 비ꡐ할 λ•Œ
10:58
between Chinese women and Indian women.
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훨씬 더 μ»€μ§‘λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:01
I haven't told you about the definition of literacy.
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μ œκ°€ 아직 μ‹μžμœ¨μ˜ μ •μ˜μ— λŒ€ν•΄μ„  λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬μ§„ μ•Šμ•˜κ΅°μš”
11:05
In China, the definition of literacy
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μ€‘κ΅­μ—μ„œ μ‹μžμœ¨μ˜ μ •μ˜λŠ”
11:08
is the ability to read and write
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1,500자의 ν•œμžλ₯Ό
11:10
1,500 Chinese characters.
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읽고 μ“Έ 수 μžˆλŠ” λŠ₯λ ₯을 λ§ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:13
In India, the definition of literacy,
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μΈλ„μ—μ„œμ˜ μ‹μžμœ¨μ˜ μ •μ˜,
11:16
operating definition of literacy,
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ν˜„ν–‰μ˜ μ‹μžμœ¨μ˜ μ •μ˜λŠ”
11:18
is the ability, the grand ability,
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μžμ‹ μ˜ 이름을
11:21
to write your own name
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μžκΈ°κ°€ μ“°λŠ” 아무 μ–Έμ–΄λ‘œλ‚˜
11:23
in whatever language you happen to speak.
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μ“Έ 수 μžˆλŠ” λŠ₯λ ₯을 λ§ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:27
The gap between the two countries in terms of literacy
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두 λ‚˜λΌμ˜ μ‹μžμœ¨μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œμ˜ μ°¨μ΄λŠ”
11:29
is much more substantial
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μ—¬κΈ° 이 μžλ£Œκ°€ μ‹œμ‚¬ν•˜λŠ” 것보닀
11:31
than the data here indicated.
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훨씬 더 크닀고 ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:34
If you go to other sources of data
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λ§Œμ•½ 1970λ…„λŒ€ μ΄ˆκΉŒμ§€ 거슬러 μ˜¬λΌκ°€λŠ”
11:36
such as Human Development Index,
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인λ ₯ 개발 μ§€μˆ˜μ™€ 같은
11:38
that data series,
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λ‹€λ₯Έ μ’…λ₯˜μ˜ 데이터λ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄λ©΄,
11:40
go back to the early 1970s,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„  μ—¬κΈ°μ„œλ„ μ •ν™•νžˆ λ™μΌν•œ
11:43
you see exactly the same contrast.
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λŒ€μ‘°λ˜λŠ” 자료λ₯Ό λ³΄μ‹œκ²Œ λ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:45
China held a huge advantage
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쀑ꡭ은 인도에 λΉ„ν•΄
11:47
in terms of human capital
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노동λ ₯μ—μ„œ 큰 이점을
11:49
vis-a-vis India.
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가지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:51
Life expectancies:
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λΉ λ₯΄κ²ŒλŠ”
11:53
as early as 1965,
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1965λ…„μ˜ κΈ°λŒ€μˆ˜λͺ…μ—μ„œλ„
11:55
China had a huge advantage in life expectancy.
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쀑ꡭ이 훨씬 κΉλ‹ˆλ‹€
11:59
On average, as a Chinese in 1965,
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ν‰κ· μ μœΌλ‘œ 1965λ…„μ˜ 쀑ꡭ인은
12:02
you lived 10 years more
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인도 μ‚¬λžŒλ³΄λ‹€
12:04
than an average Indian.
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10년을 더 μ‚΄ 수 μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:06
So if you have a choice
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λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€κ»˜μ„œ
12:08
between being a Chinese and being an Indian,
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쀑ꡭ인이 λ˜κ±°λ‚˜ 인도인이 λ˜λŠ” μ„ νƒμ˜ κΈ°λ‘œμ— μ„œμžˆμœΌμ…¨λ‹€λ©΄,
12:10
you would want to become a Chinese
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10λ…„ 더 길게 μ‚΄κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
12:12
in order to live 10 years longer.
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쀑ꡭ인이 되길 μ›ν•˜μ…¨μ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:15
If you made that decision in 1965,
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λ§Œμ•½ 1965λ…„ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€μ΄ 쀑ꡭ인이 λ˜λŠ” 것을 μ„ νƒν•˜μ…¨λ‹€λ©΄,
12:17
the down side of that
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κ·Έ μ„ νƒμ˜ 단점은
12:19
is the next year we have the Cultural Revolution.
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이듬해에 λ¬Έν™” 혁λͺ…을 κ²ͺμœΌμ…”μ•Ό ν–ˆλ˜ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:21
So you have to always think carefully
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그렇기에 이런 결정에 λŒ€ν•΄
12:24
about these decisions.
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항상 μ‹ μ€‘ν•˜κ²Œ μƒκ°ν•˜μ…”μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:26
If you cannot chose your nationality,
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λ§Œμ•½μ— μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ κ΅­κ°€λ₯Ό 선택할 수 μ—†λ‹€λ©΄,
12:29
then you will want to become an Indian man.
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인도 λ‚¨μžκ°€ 되길 μ›ν•˜μ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:32
Because, as an Indian man,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 인도 남성이 λœλ‹€λ©΄,
12:34
you have about two years of life expectancy advantage
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여성에 λΉ„ν•΄ 2λ…„ κ°€λŸ‰ κΈ°λŒ€ 수λͺ…이
12:37
vis-a-vis Indian women.
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더 κΈΈκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:40
This is an extremely strange fact.
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μ΄λŠ” μ—„μ²­λ‚˜κ²Œ μ΄μƒν•œ μ‚¬μ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:43
It's very rare among countries
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μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ 이런 νŒ¨ν„΄μ„ 가진 λ‚˜λΌλŠ”
12:46
to have this kind of pattern.
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맀우 λ“œλ­…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:48
It shows the systematic discrimination and biases
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μ΄λŠ” 인도 μ‚¬νšŒμ—μ„œ
12:51
in the Indian society
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여성에 λŒ€ν•œ ꡬ쑰적인 차별과 λΆˆν‰λ“±μ„
12:53
against women.
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λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” μ‚¬λ‘€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:55
The good news is, by 2006,
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쒋은 μ†Œμ‹μ€ 2006년에
12:57
India has closed the gap
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μΈλ„λŠ” 남성과 μ—¬μ„± μ‚¬μ΄μ˜
12:59
between men and women
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κΈ°λŒ€ 수λͺ… 차이λ₯Ό
13:01
in terms of life expectancy.
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μ€„μ˜€λ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:04
Today, Indian women have a sizable life expectancy edge
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  인도 μ—¬μ„±μ˜ κΈ°λŒ€ 수λͺ…은
13:07
over Indian men.
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λ‚¨μ„±μ˜ κΈ°λŒ€μˆ˜λͺ…κ³Ό 거의 λΉ„μŠ·ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:09
So India is reverting to the normal.
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즉, μΈλ„λŠ” λ³΄ν†΅μœΌλ‘œ λŒμ•„μ˜€κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:12
But India still has a lot of work to do
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μΈλ„λŠ” μ–‘μ„± 평등에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
13:14
in terms of gender equality.
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아직도 ν•΄μ•Όν•  일이 λ§ŽμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:16
These are the two pictures
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이 두 사진은
13:18
taken of garment factories in Guangdong Province
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κ΄‘λ™μ„±μ˜ 의λ₯˜ 곡μž₯κ³Ό μΈλ„μ˜ 의λ₯˜ 곡μž₯μ—μ„œ
13:21
and garment factories in India.
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찍힌 μ‚¬μ§„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:24
In China, it's all women.
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μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ 사진은 λͺ¨λ‘ μ—¬μ„±λ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:26
60 to 80 percent of the workforce in China is women
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쀑ꡭ ν•΄μ•ˆμ§€λ°©μ˜ 60~80%의 노동λ ₯은
13:29
in the coastal part of the country,
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μ—¬μ„±μ—μ„œ λ‚˜μ˜€λŠ” 반면
13:31
whereas in India, it's all men.
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인도에선 남성듀이 λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ 노동을 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:34
Financial Times printed this picture
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νŒŒμ΄λ‚Έμ…œ νƒ€μž„μ¦ˆ μ§€λŠ”
13:36
of an Indian textile factory
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"인도, μ„¬μœ μ—μ„œ 쀑ꡭ을 λ„˜κΈ°μœ„ν•΄ νƒœμ„Έλ₯Ό μ·¨ν–ˆλ‹€"λΌλŠ” 제λͺ©κ³Ό ν•¨κ»˜
13:38
with the title, "India Poised to Overtake China in Textile."
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이 μΈλ„μ˜ μ„¬μœ  곡μž₯의 사진을 κ²Œμž¬ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:42
By looking at these two pictures,
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이 두 사진을 ν†΅ν•΄μ„œ
13:44
I say no, it won't overtake China for a while.
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μ „ "아뇨, 당뢄간은 쀑ꡭ을 λ„˜μ„ 수 μ—†μ„κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€"라고 λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬κ³  μ‹Άλ„€μš”
13:48
If you look at other East Asian countries,
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λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€κ»˜μ„œ λ‹€λ₯Έ λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„ κ΅­κ°€λ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄μ‹ λ‹€λ©΄,
13:50
women there play a hugely important role
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κ·Έ 곳에 μžˆλŠ” 여성듀은 경제 λ°œμ „μ˜ μ‹œμž‘μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ,
13:54
in terms of economic take-off --
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또 λ™μ•„μ‹œμ•„μ™€ ν•¨κ»˜ μƒμ‚°μ˜ 기적을 λ§Œλ“œλŠ”λ° μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
13:56
in terms of creating the manufacturing miracle
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μ—„μ²­λ‚˜κ²Œ μ€‘μš”ν•œ 역할을
13:59
associated with East Asia.
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λ‹΄λ‹Ήν•˜κ³  μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:01
India still has a long way to go
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인도가 쀑ꡭ을 λ”°λΌμž‘μœΌλ €λ©΄
14:03
to catch up with China.
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아직 갈 길이 λ©‰λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:05
Then the issue is,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ€‘μš”ν•œ 것은
14:07
what about the Chinese political system?
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μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ μ •μΉ˜ μ²΄κ³„λŠ” μ–΄λ–€κ°€ ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:09
You talk about human capital,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 인적 μžλ³Έμ— λŒ€ν•΄ λ…Όν•  λ•Œ,
14:11
you talk about education and public health.
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우린 ꡐ윑과 곡곡 보건에 μ˜ν•΄ 이야기 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:13
What about the political system?
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ μ •μΉ˜ μ²΄κ³„λŠ”μš”?
14:15
Isn't it true that the one-party political system
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1λ‹Ή μ •μΉ˜ ꡬ쑰가
14:18
has facilitated economic growth in China?
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μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ 경제 μ„±μž₯을 μ΄λŒμ—ˆλ‹€λŠ” 건 사싀이지 μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
14:22
Actually, the answer is more nuanced and subtle than that.
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œ κ·Έ 닡은 그것 보닀 훨씬 더 λ―Έλ¬˜ν•˜κ³  μΈ‘μ •ν•˜κΈ° μ–΄λ ΅μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:26
It depends on a distinction that you draw
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μ΄λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€
14:29
between statics of the political system
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정적인 μ •μΉ˜ ꡬ쑰와 동적인 μ •μΉ˜κ΅¬μ‘° 사이에
14:32
and the dynamics of the political system.
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μ–΄λ–€ 것을 μ„ νƒν•˜λŠλƒμ˜ 차이에 λ‹¬λ €μžˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:34
Statically, China is a one-party system,
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μ •μ μœΌλ‘œ 쀑ꡭ은 1λ‹Ή 체제의 λ…μž¬μ£Όμ˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:37
authoritarian -- there's no question about it.
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μ΄λŠ” ν™•μ‹€ν•˜μ£ 
14:40
Dynamically, it has changed over time
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λ™μ μœΌλ‘œ μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ μ •μΉ˜ μ²΄κ³„λŠ”
14:43
to become less authoritarian and more democratic.
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κ³„μ†ν•΄μ„œ 덜 λ…μž¬μ£Όμ˜μ μ΄κ³ , 더 민주주의적으둜 λ°”λ€Œμ–΄ μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
14:46
When you explain change --
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄, 경제 μ„±μž₯κ³Ό 같은
14:48
for example, economic growth;
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변화에 λŒ€ν•΄
14:50
economic growth is about change --
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μ„€λͺ…을 ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
14:52
when you explain change,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ λ³€ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” 것을 μ„€λͺ…ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
14:54
you use other things that have changed to explain change,
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λ³€ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ€ 것을 예둜 λ“€κΈ° 보단,
14:57
rather than using the constant to explain change.
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바뀐 것듀을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:01
Sometimes a fixed effect can explain change,
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λ•Œλ‘œλŠ” κ³ μ •λœ νš¨κ³Όκ°€ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μ„€λͺ…ν•˜κΈ°λ„ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:04
but a fixed effect only explains changes
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 그런 λΆˆλ³€μ˜ 값은
15:07
in interaction with the things that change.
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λ³€ν•œ κ°’λ“€κ³Όμ˜ 비ꡐλ₯Ό ν†΅ν•΄μ„œλ§Œ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μ„€λͺ…ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:10
In terms of the political changes,
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μ •μΉ˜ 변화에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ,
15:12
they have introduced village elections.
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쀑ꡭ은 λ§ˆμ„ νˆ¬ν‘œλ₯Ό 이야기 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:14
They have increased the security of proprietors.
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그듀은 μ‚¬μœ κΆŒμ˜ μ•ˆμ „μ„ λŒμ–΄μ˜¬λ ΈμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:18
And they have increased the security
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그리고 μž₯κΈ° 토지 μž„λŒ€μ˜ μ•ˆμ „μ„±λ„
15:21
with long-term land leases.
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μ¦κ°€μ‹œμΌ°μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:23
There are also financial reforms in rural China.
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λ˜ν•œ 쀑ꡭ μ‹œκ³¨ μ§€λ°©μ˜ 금육 κ°œν˜λ„ μžˆμ—ˆκ³ ,
15:26
There is also a rural entrepreneurial revolution in China.
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기업가적인 혁λͺ…도 μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:29
To me, the pace of political changes
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μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ—” μ •μΉ˜μ μΈ λ³€ν™”μ˜ μ†λ„λŠ”
15:32
is too slow, too gradual.
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λ„ˆλ¬΄ 느리고 μ™„λ§Œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:34
And my own view is the country
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또 μ œκ°€ λ³΄λŠ” λ°”λ‘œλŠ” 쀑ꡭ이
15:36
is going to face some substantial challenges,
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λ­”κ°€ 큰 도전을 κ²ͺ을 κ²ƒμ΄λΌλŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:38
because they have not moved further and faster on political reforms.
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 쀑ꡭ은 μ •μΉ˜ κ°œν˜μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 더 멀리, 또 더 빨리 λ³€ν™”ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
15:42
But nevertheless,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·ΈλŸΌμ—λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ 
15:44
the system has moved in a more liberal direction,
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μ •μΉ˜ κ΅¬μ‘°λŠ” λ”μš± 자유둜운 λ°©ν–₯으둜,
15:47
moved in a more democratic direction.
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λ”μš± 민주적인 λ°©ν–₯으둜 움직여 μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:51
You can apply exactly the same dynamic perspective on India.
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인도에도 이와 μ •ν™•νžˆ λ™μΌν•œ κ²©λ ¬ν•œ 관점을 μ μš©ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:55
In fact, when India was growing
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사싀 인도가 νžŒλ‘μ˜ μ†λ„λ‘œ,
15:57
at a Hindu rate of growth --
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맀년 1~2% μ”©
15:59
about one percent, two percent a year --
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μ„±μž₯ν•  λ•ŒλŠ”
16:01
that was when India was least democratic.
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인도가 κ°€μž₯ 민주적이지 μ•Šμ„ λ•Œμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:04
Indira Gandhi declared emergency rule in 1975.
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인디라 κ°„λ””κ°€ 1975λ…„ κ΅­κ°€ λΉ„μƒμ‚¬νƒœλ₯Ό μ„ ν¬ν–ˆμ—ˆμ£ 
16:08
The Indian government owned and operated
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인도 μ •λΆ€κ°€ λͺ¨λ“  TV 방솑ꡭ을
16:11
all the TV stations.
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μ†Œμœ ν•˜κ³  μžˆμ—ˆκ³  μš΄μ˜ν–ˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:13
A little-known fact about India in the 1990s
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1990λ…„ λŒ€μ— 인도에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ•Œλ €μ§„ 적은 사싀은
16:16
is that the country
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인도가 경제 κ°œν˜μ—
16:18
not only has undertaken economic reforms,
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μ°©μˆ˜ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” 것 뿐만 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ,
16:21
the country has also undertaken political reforms
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λ§ˆμ„ μžμΉ˜μ œλ„, μ–Έλ‘ μ˜ μ‚¬μœ ν™”,
16:24
by introducing village self-rule,
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μ •λ³΄μžμœ λ²•μ„ λ„μž…ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ
16:27
privatization of media
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μ •μΉ˜μ μΈ κ°œν˜λ„
16:30
and introducing freedom of information acts.
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λ‹¨ν–‰ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:34
So the dynamic perspective
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ λ‚˜μ•„κ°€λŠ” λ°©ν–₯μ΄λΌλŠ” μΈ‘λ©΄μ—μ„œ
16:36
fits both with China and in India
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인도와 쀑ꡭ λͺ¨λ‘
16:38
in terms of the direction.
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역동적인 κ΄€μ μ΄λΌλŠ” 점을 λ§Œμ‘±ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:40
Why do many people believe
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μ™œ λ§Žμ€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ—¬μ „νžˆ
16:43
that India is still a growth disaster?
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인도가 μ„±μž₯ μž¬μ•™μ— λΉ μ Έμžˆλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν• κΉŒμš”?
16:46
One reason
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κ·Έ μ΄μœ μ€‘ ν•˜λ‚˜λŠ”
16:48
is they are always comparing India with China.
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ 항상 인도λ₯Ό 쀑ꡭ과 λΉ„κ΅ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:51
But China is a superstar
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쀑ꡭ은 경제 μ„±μž₯에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œλŠ”
16:53
in terms of economic growth.
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μŠˆνΌμŠ€νƒ€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:55
If you are a NBA player
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λ§Œμ•½μ— ν•œ NBA μ„ μˆ˜κ°€
16:57
and you are always being compared to Michael Jordan,
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항상 마이클 쑰던과 비ꡐλ₯Ό λ‹Ήν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
17:00
you're going to look not so impressive.
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κ·Έ μ„ μˆ˜λŠ” μ „ν˜€ 인상적이지 μ•Šμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:02
But that doesn't mean
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€κ³ 
17:04
that you're a bad basketball player.
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κ·Έ μ„ μˆ˜κ°€ λ‚˜μœ μ„ μˆ˜λΌλŠ” 말은 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:06
Comparing with a superstar
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μŠˆνΌμŠ€νƒ€μ™€ 비ꡐλ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ” 것은
17:08
is the wrong benchmark.
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μ œλŒ€λ‘œ 된 μž£λŒ€κ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:10
In fact, if you compare India
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사싀 인도가
17:12
with the average developing country,
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μ§€κΈˆμ€ 8~9%의 μ„±μž₯λ₯ μ„ 보이고 μžˆμ§€λ§Œ,
17:14
even before the more recent period
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이런 κΈ‰κ²©ν•œ 경제 λ°œμ „μ„
17:17
of acceleration of Indian growth --
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ν•˜κΈ° μ „μ˜ μ‹œκΈ°μ™€
17:19
now India is growing between eight and nine percent --
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비ꡐλ₯Ό ν•œλ‹€μ† μΉ˜λ”λΌλ„
17:22
even before this period,
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μΈλ„λŠ” 개발 도상ꡭ듀 μ‚¬μ΄μ—μ„œ
17:24
India was ranked fourth in terms of economic growth
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4μœ„μ— μœ„μΉ˜ν•΄
17:27
among emerging economies.
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μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:30
This is a very impressive record indeed.
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사싀 이 기둝은 맀우 λŒ€λ‹¨ν•œ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:34
Let's think about the future:
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그럼 이제 용과 μ½”λΌλ¦¬μ˜ λŒ€κ²° ꡬ도일
17:36
the dragon vis-a-vis the elephant.
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λ―Έλž˜μ— λŒ€ν•΄ 말씀 λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:39
Which country has the growth momentum?
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μ–΄λŠ λ‚˜λΌκ°€ μ„±μž₯λ ₯을 가지고 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
17:42
China, I believe, still has
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μ €λŠ” 쀑ꡭ이 μ—¬μ „νžˆ
17:45
some of the excellent raw fundamentals --
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인도에선 찾을 수 μ—†λŠ”
17:48
mostly the social capital,
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μ‚¬νšŒμ  자본,
17:50
the public health,
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곡곡보건,
17:52
the sense of egalitarianism
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ν‰λ“±μ£Όμ˜ λ“±κ³Ό 같은
17:54
that you don't find in India.
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λ›°μ–΄λ‚œ κΈ°λ°˜μ„ 가지고 μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ΄…λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:56
But I believe that India has the momentum.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ „ 인도가 κ·Έ 좔진λ ₯을 가지고 μžˆλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
17:58
It has the improving fundamentals.
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μΈλ„μ˜ κΈ°λ°˜μ€ λ‚˜μ•„μ§€κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:00
The government has invested in basic education,
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인도 μ •λΆ€λŠ” 기초 ꡐ윑과
18:03
has invested in basic health.
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기본적인 보건에 투자λ₯Ό ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:05
I believe the government should do more,
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μ „ 인도 μ •λΆ€μ—μ„œ 더 λ§Žμ€ λˆμ„ νˆ¬μžν•΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ,
18:07
but nevertheless, the direction it is moving in
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κ·Έλž˜λ„ 그듀은 μ˜³μ€ λ°©ν–₯을 ν–₯ν•΄
18:09
is the right direction.
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κ°€κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:11
India has the right institutional conditions
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μΈλ„λŠ” 경제 μ„±μž₯에 μ ν•©ν•œ ꡐ윑적인 쑰건을
18:14
for economic growth,
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가지고 μžˆλŠ” 반면,
18:16
whereas China is still struggling
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쀑ꡭ은 μ •μΉ˜ 개혁과
18:18
with political reforms.
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κ³ κ΅°λΆ„νˆ¬ ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:20
I believe that the political reforms are a must for China
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μ „ μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ μ •μΉ˜ 개혁이 경제 μ„±μž₯을 μ§€μ†ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„ 
18:23
to maintain its growth.
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κΌ­ 이뀄져야 ν•œλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:26
And it's very important to have political reforms,
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그리고 μ •μΉ˜μ μΈ κ°œν˜μ„ μ΄λ£¨λŠ” 것과 경제 μ„±μž₯의 이득을
18:28
to have widely shared benefits of economic growth.
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ν­λ„“κ²Œ λ‚˜λˆ„λŠ” 것이 μ•„μ£Ό μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:31
I don't know whether that's going to happen or not,
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μ „ μ •μΉ˜ 개혁이 일어날 지, μ•„λ‹μ§€λŠ” μ•Œ 수 μ—†μ§€λ§Œ
18:33
but I'm an optimist.
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μ „ λ‚™κ΄€λ‘ μžμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:35
Hopefully, five years from now, I'm going to report to TEDGlobal
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μ§€κΈˆμœΌλ‘œλΆ€ν„° 5λ…„ 후에 μ œκ°€ TED Globalμ—μ„œ
18:38
that political reforms will happen in China.
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μ€‘κ΅­μ—μ„œ μ •μΉ˜μ μΈ 개혁이 일어났닀고 λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦΄ 수 있길 λ°”λΌκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:40
Thank you very much.
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정말 κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
18:42
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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