Yasheng Huang: Does democracy stifle economic growth?

80,263 views ・ 2011-09-12

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
My topic
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is economic growth in China and India.
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00:20
And the question I want to explore with you
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is whether or not
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democracy has helped or has hindered
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economic growth.
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00:30
You may say this is not fair,
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because I'm selecting two countries
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to make a case against democracy.
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Actually, exactly the opposite
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is what I'm going to do.
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I'm going to use these two countries
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to make an economic argument for democracy,
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rather than against democracy.
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The first question there
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is why China has grown so much faster
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than India.
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Over the last 30 years,
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in terms of the GDP growth rates,
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01:02
China has grown at twice the rate of India.
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In the last five years,
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the two countries have begun to converge somewhat
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in economic growth.
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01:13
But over the last 30 years,
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China undoubtedly
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has done much better than India.
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01:20
One simple answer
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is China has Shanghai and India has Mumbai.
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Look at the skyline of Shanghai.
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This is the Pudong area.
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The picture on India
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is the Dharavi slum of Mumbai
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in India.
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01:36
The idea there
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behind these two pictures
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is that the Chinese government
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can act above rule of law.
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It can plan
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for the long-term benefits of the country
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and in the process,
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evict millions of people --
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that's just a small technical issue.
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Whereas in India, you cannot do that,
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because you have to listen to the public.
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02:00
You're being constrained by the public's opinion.
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02:02
Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
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agrees with that view.
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02:07
In an interview
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printed in the financial press of India,
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02:11
He said that he wants to make Mumbai
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another Shanghai.
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This is an Oxford-trained economist
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steeped in humanistic values,
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and yet he agrees
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with the high-pressure tactics of Shanghai.
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02:29
So let me call it the Shanghai model of economic growth,
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02:32
that emphasizes the following features
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for promoting economic development:
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infrastructures, airports,
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highways, bridges, things like that.
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02:43
And you need a strong government to do that,
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because you cannot respect private property rights.
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You cannot be constrained by the public's opinion.
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You need also state ownership,
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especially of land assets,
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in order to build and roll out infrastructures
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very quickly.
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The implication of that model
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is that democracy
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is a hindrance for economic growth,
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rather than a facilitator of economic growth.
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03:12
Here's the key question.
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Just how important are infrastructures
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for economic growth?
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03:19
This is a key issue.
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03:21
If you believe that infrastructures are very important for economic growth,
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then you would argue a strong government is necessary
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to promote growth.
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If you believe
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that infrastructures are not as important as many people believe,
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03:35
then you will put less emphasis
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on strong government.
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03:39
So to illustrate that question,
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let me give you two countries.
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And for the sake of brevity,
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I'll call one country Country 1
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and the other country Country 2.
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Country 1
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has a systematic advantage over Country 2
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in infrastructures.
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Country 1 has more telephones,
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and Country 1 has a longer system of railways.
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04:02
So if I were to ask you,
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"Which is China
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and which is India,
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and which country has grown faster?"
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if you believe in the infrastructure view,
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then you will say, "Country 1 must be China.
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04:17
They must have done better, in terms of economic growth.
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And Country 2 is possibly India."
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Actually the country with more telephones
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is the Soviet Union,
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and the data referred to 1989.
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After the country reported very impressive statistics on telephones,
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the country collapsed.
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04:39
That's not too good.
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The picture there is Khrushchev.
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I know that in 1989
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he no longer ruled the Soviet Union,
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but that's the best picture that I can find.
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04:50
(Laughter)
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04:52
Telephones, infrastructures
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do not guarantee you economic growth.
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04:56
Country 2, that has fewer telephones,
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is China.
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05:01
Since 1989,
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the country has performed at a double-digit rate
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every year for the last 20 years.
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05:08
If you know nothing about China and the Soviet Union
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other than the fact about their telephones,
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you would have made a poor prediction
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about their economic growth
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in the next two decades.
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05:20
Country 1, that has a longer system of railways,
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is actually India.
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And Country 2 is China.
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05:28
This is a very little known fact
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about the two countries.
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Yes, today China has a huge infrastructure advantage
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over India.
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05:37
But for many years,
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until the late 1990s,
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China had an infrastructure disadvantage
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vis-a-vis India.
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In developing countries,
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the most common mode of transportation
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is the railways,
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and the British built a lot of railways in India.
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India is the smaller of the two countries,
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and yet it had a longer system of railways
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until the late 1990s.
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So clearly,
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infrastructure doesn't explain
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why China did better before the late 1990s,
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as compared with India.
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In fact, if you look at the evidence worldwide,
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the evidence is more supportive of the view
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that the infrastructure are actually the result of economic growth.
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06:23
The economy grows,
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government accumulates more resources,
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and the government can invest in infrastructure --
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rather than infrastructure being a cause
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for economic growth.
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And this is clearly the story
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of the Chinese economic growth.
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06:40
Let me look at this question more directly.
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Is democracy bad for economic growth?
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Now let's turn to two countries,
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Country A and Country B.
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Country A, in 1990,
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had about $300 per capita GDP
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as compared with Country B,
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which had $460 in per capita GDP.
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By 2008,
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Country A has surpassed Country B
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with $700 per capita GDP
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as compared with $650 per capita GDP.
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Both countries are in Asia.
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If I were to ask you,
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"Which are the two Asian countries?
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And which one is a democracy?"
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you may argue,
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"Well, maybe Country A is China
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and Country B is India."
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In fact, Country A
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is democratic India,
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and Country B is Pakistan --
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the country that has a long period
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of military rule.
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And it's very common
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that we compare India with China.
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That's because the two countries
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have about the same population size.
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But the more natural comparison
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is actually between India and Pakistan.
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Those two countries are geographically similar.
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They have a complicated, but shared common history.
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By that comparison,
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democracy looks very, very good
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in terms of economic growth.
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So why do economists fall in love
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with authoritarian governments?
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One reason is the East Asian Model.
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In East Asia,
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we have had successful economic growth stories
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such as Korea, Taiwan,
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Hong Kong and Singapore.
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Some of these economies
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were ruled by authoritarian governments
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in the 60s and 70s
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and 1980s.
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The problem with that view
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is like asking all the winners of lotteries,
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"Have you won the lottery?"
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And they all tell you, "Yes, we have won the lottery."
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And then you draw the conclusion
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the odds of winning the lottery
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are 100 percent.
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The reason is you never go
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and bother to ask the losers
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who also purchased lottery tickets
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and didn't end up winning the prize.
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For each of these successful authoritarian governments
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in East Asia,
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there's a matched failure.
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Korea succeeded, North Korea didn't.
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Taiwan succeeded, China under Mao Zedong didn't.
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Burma didn't succeed.
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The Philippines didn't succeed.
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09:16
If you look at the statistical evidence worldwide,
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there's really no support for the idea
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that authoritarian governments
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hold a systematic edge over democracies
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in terms of economic growth.
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So the East Asian model
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has this massive selection bias --
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it is known as selecting on a dependent variable,
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something we always tell our students to avoid.
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09:40
So exactly why did China grow so much faster?
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09:45
I will take you to the Cultural Revolution,
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when China went mad,
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and compare that country's performance with India
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under Indira Gandhi.
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The question there is: Which country did better,
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China or India?
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China was during the Cultural Revolution.
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It turns out even during the Cultural Revolution,
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China out-perfomed India
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in terms of GDP growth
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by an average of about 2.2 percent every year
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in terms of per capita GDP.
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So that's when China was mad.
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The whole country went mad.
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It must mean that the country
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had something so advantageous to itself in terms of economic growth
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to overcome the negative effects
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of the Cultural Revolution.
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The advantage the country had
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was human capital --
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nothing else but human capital.
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This is the world development index indicator data
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in the early 1990s.
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And this is the earliest data that I can find.
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The adult literacy rate in China
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is 77 percent
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as compared with 48 percent in India.
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The contrast in literacy rates
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is especially sharp
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between Chinese women and Indian women.
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11:01
I haven't told you about the definition of literacy.
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In China, the definition of literacy
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is the ability to read and write
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1,500 Chinese characters.
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In India, the definition of literacy,
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operating definition of literacy,
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is the ability, the grand ability,
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to write your own name
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in whatever language you happen to speak.
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The gap between the two countries in terms of literacy
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is much more substantial
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than the data here indicated.
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If you go to other sources of data
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such as Human Development Index,
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that data series,
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go back to the early 1970s,
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you see exactly the same contrast.
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China held a huge advantage
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in terms of human capital
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vis-a-vis India.
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Life expectancies:
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as early as 1965,
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China had a huge advantage in life expectancy.
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On average, as a Chinese in 1965,
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you lived 10 years more
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than an average Indian.
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So if you have a choice
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between being a Chinese and being an Indian,
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you would want to become a Chinese
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in order to live 10 years longer.
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If you made that decision in 1965,
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the down side of that
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is the next year we have the Cultural Revolution.
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So you have to always think carefully
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about these decisions.
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If you cannot chose your nationality,
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then you will want to become an Indian man.
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Because, as an Indian man,
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you have about two years of life expectancy advantage
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vis-a-vis Indian women.
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This is an extremely strange fact.
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It's very rare among countries
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to have this kind of pattern.
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It shows the systematic discrimination and biases
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in the Indian society
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against women.
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12:55
The good news is, by 2006,
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India has closed the gap
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between men and women
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in terms of life expectancy.
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Today, Indian women have a sizable life expectancy edge
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over Indian men.
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So India is reverting to the normal.
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But India still has a lot of work to do
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in terms of gender equality.
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13:16
These are the two pictures
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taken of garment factories in Guangdong Province
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and garment factories in India.
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In China, it's all women.
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60 to 80 percent of the workforce in China is women
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in the coastal part of the country,
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whereas in India, it's all men.
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Financial Times printed this picture
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of an Indian textile factory
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with the title, "India Poised to Overtake China in Textile."
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13:42
By looking at these two pictures,
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I say no, it won't overtake China for a while.
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If you look at other East Asian countries,
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women there play a hugely important role
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in terms of economic take-off --
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in terms of creating the manufacturing miracle
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associated with East Asia.
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India still has a long way to go
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to catch up with China.
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Then the issue is,
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what about the Chinese political system?
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You talk about human capital,
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you talk about education and public health.
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What about the political system?
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Isn't it true that the one-party political system
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has facilitated economic growth in China?
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Actually, the answer is more nuanced and subtle than that.
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It depends on a distinction that you draw
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between statics of the political system
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and the dynamics of the political system.
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Statically, China is a one-party system,
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authoritarian -- there's no question about it.
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Dynamically, it has changed over time
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to become less authoritarian and more democratic.
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When you explain change --
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for example, economic growth;
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economic growth is about change --
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when you explain change,
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you use other things that have changed to explain change,
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rather than using the constant to explain change.
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Sometimes a fixed effect can explain change,
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but a fixed effect only explains changes
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in interaction with the things that change.
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In terms of the political changes,
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they have introduced village elections.
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They have increased the security of proprietors.
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And they have increased the security
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with long-term land leases.
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There are also financial reforms in rural China.
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There is also a rural entrepreneurial revolution in China.
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To me, the pace of political changes
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is too slow, too gradual.
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And my own view is the country
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is going to face some substantial challenges,
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because they have not moved further and faster on political reforms.
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But nevertheless,
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the system has moved in a more liberal direction,
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moved in a more democratic direction.
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You can apply exactly the same dynamic perspective on India.
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In fact, when India was growing
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at a Hindu rate of growth --
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about one percent, two percent a year --
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that was when India was least democratic.
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Indira Gandhi declared emergency rule in 1975.
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The Indian government owned and operated
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all the TV stations.
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A little-known fact about India in the 1990s
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is that the country
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not only has undertaken economic reforms,
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the country has also undertaken political reforms
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by introducing village self-rule,
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privatization of media
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and introducing freedom of information acts.
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So the dynamic perspective
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fits both with China and in India
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in terms of the direction.
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Why do many people believe
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that India is still a growth disaster?
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One reason
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is they are always comparing India with China.
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But China is a superstar
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in terms of economic growth.
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If you are a NBA player
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and you are always being compared to Michael Jordan,
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you're going to look not so impressive.
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But that doesn't mean
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that you're a bad basketball player.
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Comparing with a superstar
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is the wrong benchmark.
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In fact, if you compare India
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with the average developing country,
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even before the more recent period
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of acceleration of Indian growth --
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now India is growing between eight and nine percent --
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even before this period,
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India was ranked fourth in terms of economic growth
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among emerging economies.
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This is a very impressive record indeed.
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Let's think about the future:
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the dragon vis-a-vis the elephant.
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Which country has the growth momentum?
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China, I believe, still has
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some of the excellent raw fundamentals --
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mostly the social capital,
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the public health,
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the sense of egalitarianism
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that you don't find in India.
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But I believe that India has the momentum.
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It has the improving fundamentals.
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The government has invested in basic education,
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has invested in basic health.
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I believe the government should do more,
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but nevertheless, the direction it is moving in
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is the right direction.
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India has the right institutional conditions
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for economic growth,
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whereas China is still struggling
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with political reforms.
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I believe that the political reforms are a must for China
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to maintain its growth.
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And it's very important to have political reforms,
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to have widely shared benefits of economic growth.
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I don't know whether that's going to happen or not,
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but I'm an optimist.
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Hopefully, five years from now, I'm going to report to TEDGlobal
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that political reforms will happen in China.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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