The freakonomics of McDonalds vs. drugs | Steven Levitt

Prevoditelj: Stjepan Srhoj Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG

You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,

Biti ćete sretni znati da neću pričati o svojoj tragediji,

but other people's tragedy.

već o tragediji drugih ljudi.

It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy

Puno je lakše biti vedar pričajući o tuđoj nesreći, nego o svojoj,

than your own,

and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.

a ja želim očuvati pozitivan naboj ove konferencije.

Ako vjerujete medijskom izvještavanju,

So, if you believe the media accounts,

being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic

biti diler droge u srcu epidemije crack-kokaina

was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.

je bio luksuzan život, po riječima Virginie Postrel.

There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,

Bilo je novca, droge, pištolja, žena,

you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.

znate, samo nabrajajte -- nakit, bling-bling -- bilo je svega.

What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,

Što ću vam ja danas reći je temeljeno na 10 godina istraživanja,

a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --

jedinstvenoj prilici ući unutar bande --

to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --

vidjeti prave knjige, poslovne knjige bandi --

that the answer turns out not to be

koji govore da biti u bandi nije bio luksuzan život.

that being in the gang was a glamorous life.

But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --

Ja mislim, realno, da biti u bandi --

selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.

prodavati drogu za bandu -- je možda najgori posao u cijeloj Americi.

And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.

I to je ono u što bih vas htio uvjeriti danas.

So there are three things I want to do.

Imam tri stvari koje želim učiniti.

First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine

Prvo, želim objasniti kako i zašto je crack kokain

had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.

imao tako dubok utjecaj na bande geta.

Secondly, I want to tell you

Drugo, želim vam reći kako je netko poput mene

how somebody like me came to be able to see

dobio priliku vidjeti unutrašnjost posla bandi.

the inner workings of a gang -- an interesting story, I think.

And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,

To je interesantna priča, mislim.

I onda treće, želim vam reći, vrlo površnim načinom

about some of the things we found

o nekim drugim stvarima koje smo otkrili kada smo pogledali

when we actually got to look at the financial records,

poslovne knjige -- knjige -- bandi.

the books, of the gang.

So before I do that, just one warning,

Pa, prije nego to napravim, jedno upozorenje, a to je da je

which is that this presentation has been rated 'R'

ova prezentacija ocjenjena sa "R" od strane američkog Udruženja za igrani film.

by the Motion Picture Association of America.

It contains adult themes, adult language.

Sadrži teme za odrasle, rječnik odraslih.

Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know

Sad kada znate tko je na pozornici, biti ćete oduševljeni saznanjem

that, in fact, there'll be no nudity --

da neće biti golotinje,

osim --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.

-- neočekivanih promjena u garderobi.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So let me start by talking about crack cocaine,

Početi ću pričati o crack kokainu, i kako je promijenio bande.

and how it transformed the gang.

To do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,

I da bih to napravio, morati ćete se vratiti u vrijeme prije crack kokaina,

in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.

u rane 80-te i pogledati na to iz perspektive vođe bande.

Being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s --

Biti vođa bande u getu i nije bila tako loša pozicija sredinom 80-ih.

the early '80s, let me say.

Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --

Ranih 80-ih, neki bi rekli.

Imaš moć i moraš pretući neke ljude --

you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.

imaš prestiž, puno poštivanja.

But the thing is, there was no money in it.

Ali u tome nije bilo novaca, OK?

The gang had no way to make money.

Banda nije imala načina kako zaraditi novac.

You couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,

I nisu mogli naplaćivati dugove od članova unutar bande,

because the people in the gang didn't have any money.

jer članovi bande nisu imali novce.

You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana --

Niste mogli zaraditi novce prodavajući marihuanu.

marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.

Marihuana je prejeftina, ispada.

You can't get rich selling marijuana.

Ne možete se obogatiti prodavajući marihuanu.

You couldn't sell cocaine;

Niste mogli prodati kokain.

cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --

Kokain je odličan prozivod -- kokain u prahu --

but you've got to know rich white people.

ali morate znati bogate bijelce.

And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people,

A većina getovskih članova bandi nije znala niti jednog bogatog bijelca --

so couldn't sell to that market.

nisu mogli prodavati na tom tržištu.

You couldn't really do petty crime, either.

Niste mogli raditi niti sitni kriminal.

Turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.

Ispada, sitni kriminal je grozan način zarade za preživjeti.

Za rezultat,

As a result, as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --

kao vođa bande, imali ste moć.

it's a pretty good life -- but the thing was, in the end,

To je prilično dobar život.

Ali problem je što ste na kraju živjeli doma sa majkom.

you were living at home with your mother.

And so it wasn't really a career.

A to i nije bila baš neka karijera.

There were limits to how powerful and important you could be

To je bilo nešto što --

je samo pokazivalo gdje su granice tome kako moćni i važni možete biti

if you had to live at home with your mother.

ako morate živjeti doma sa majkom.

Then along comes crack cocaine.

Onda dolazi crack kokain.

And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell,

Prema riječima Malcolma Gladwella, crack kokain je bio

crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce

ekstra kalorična verzija umaka od rajčice za geto.

for the inner city.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.

Jer je crack kokain bio nevjerojatna inovacija.

I don't have time to talk about it today, but if you think about it,

Nemam vremena pričati o tome danas.

Ali, ako razmislite o tome, rekao bih da u zadnjih 25 godina,

I would say that in the last 25 years,

of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,

od bilo kojeg izuma ili inovacije koji su se pojavili u ovoj državi,

the biggest one in terms of impact

najveća, u odnosima utjecaja na dobrobit ljudi

on the well-being of people who live in the inner city,

was crack cocaine.

koji žive u getu jest crack kokain.

And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.

Utjecaju na loše -- ne na dobro -- već na loše.

It had a huge impact on life.

So what was it about crack cocaine?

Imalo je ogroman utjecaj na život.

O čemu se zapravo radi kad govorimo o crack kokainu?

It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.

Bio je to odličan način za ušlagirati se.

Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --

Zato što ste mogli pušiti crack -- niste mogli pušiti kokain u prahu --

and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism of delivering a high

a pušenje je puno efikasniji način dolaska do ušlagiranosti

than snorting it.

nego šmrkanje.

And it turned out there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,

Pokazalo se da je postojala publika koja nije znala da želi crack kokain,

but when it came, it really did.

ali, kada je došao, saznala je da ga stvarno želi.

And it was a perfect drug;

you could buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar,

Bio ja savršena droga

kupiti kokain koji ide u njega za dolar, pa ga prodati za pet dolara.

sell it for five dollars.

Highly addictive -- the high was very short.

Stvara veliku ovisnost -- ušlagiranost je bila kratka.

So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high,

Petnaest minuta si super ušlagiran.

and then when you come down,

all you want to do is get high again.

A onda, kada ušlagiranost prestane, sve što želiš jest ponovo se ušlagirati.

It created a wonderful market.

Napravilo je odlično tržište.

And for the people who were there running the gang,

A za ljude koji su vodili bande,

it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.

to je bio odličan način da naizgled zarade mnogo novaca.

At least for the people on the top.

Barem za ljude na vrhu.

So this is where we enter the picture.

Tu ulazimo u ovu priču.

Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.

Ne ja -- ja stvarno igram malu ulogu u svemu ovome.

My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.

Moj suradnik, Sudhir Venkatesh, je glavni glumac.

He was a math major in college who had a good heart,

On je matematičar, dobra je osoba,

and decided he wanted to get a sociology PhD,

i odlučio je da želi doktorirati sociologiju.

came to the University of Chicago.

Došao je na Sveučilište u Chicagu.

Now, the three months before he came to Chicago,

Tri mjeseca prije nego što je došao u Chicago proveo je

he had spent following the Grateful Dead.

And in his own words, he "looked like a freak."

prateći The Greatful Dead.

Kako zna sebe opisati, izgledao je kao "freak".

He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.

Podrijetlom je iz južne Azije -- vrlo tamnoputi južno Azijac.

Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."

Veliki čovjek, imao je dugu kosu, kako on kaže "do stražnjice".

Defied all kinds of boundaries:

Prkosio je svim granicama: Je li bijelac ili crnac? Je li muško ili žensko?

Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?

He was really a curious sight to be seen.

Bio je zanimljiv prizor za gledati.

So he showed up at the University of Chicago,

I tako se pojavio na Sveučilištu u Chicagu.

and the famous sociologist William Julius Wilson

Poznati sociolog, William Julius Wilson,

was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.

je pisao knjigu koja je uključivala anketiranje ljudi iz cijelog Chicaga.

He took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,

I pogledao je Sudhira, koji je krenuo prikupiti neke ankete za njega,

and decided he knew exactly the place to send him,

i odlučio da zna točno mjesto gdje će ga poslati --

which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects

a to je u jednan od najtežih, najozloglašenijih kvartova.

not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.

Ne samo u Chicagu, već u cijelim Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama.

So Sudhir, the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city,

Tako je Sudhir -- prigradski dečko koji nikada nije bio u getu --

dutifully took his clipboard and walked down to this housing project,

pokorno uzeo svoju fasciklu i otišao u taj kvart.

gets to the first building.

Došao je do prve zgrade.

The first building? Well, there's nobody there.

Prva zgrada? Pa, nema nikoga ovdje.

But he hears some voices up in the stairwell,

Ali čuje nekakve glasove na stepenicama, pa se popne uz stepenice.

so he climbs up the stairwell, comes around the corner,

Dođe kraj kuta --

and finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.

pronađe grupu mladih Afroameriknaca kako bacaju kockice.

This is about 1990, peak of the crack epidemic.

Ovo je bilo negdje 1990 -- na vrhuncu crack epidemije.

This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang.

Ovo je jako opasan posao, kada ste u bandi -- ne želite biti iznenađeni.

You don't like to be surprised.

You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.

Ne želite biti iznenađeni ljudima koji iskoče iza ugla.

And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.

A mantra je bila: prvo pucaj, pa onda postavljaj pitanja.

Now, Sudhir was lucky -- he was such a freak,

Sudhir je imao sreće.

Bio je takav freak --

and that clipboard probably saved his life,

a fascikla mu je vjerojatno spasila život, jer su shvatili

because they figured no other rival gang member

niti jedan član protivničke bande ne bi došao upucati ih s fasciklom.

would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,

Doček mu nije bio previše topao, ali su rekli,

well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.

pa, OK -- da čujemo tvoja pitanja na anketi.

So -- I kid you not --

the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was:

I sad, ne zafrkavam se, prvo pitanje na anketi je bilo,

"How do you feel about being poor and Black in America?"

"Kako se osjećate kao siromašan crnac u Americi?"

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Makes you wonder about academics.

(Laughter)

Zapitate ste o sastavljačima ankete, OK?

(Smijeh)

So the choice of answers were:

Ponuđeni odgovori su bili: vrlo dobro, dobro, loše i vrlo loše.

[A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad]

(Laughter)

What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following:

Što je Sudhir otkrio jest da je pravi odgovor na pitanje --

[A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad E) Fuck you]

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.

Anketa neće na kraju, biti kako se Sudhir nadao.

He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.

Držali su ga kao taoca preko noći na stubištu.

There was a lot of gunfire,

there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.

Bilo je puno pucnjave --

bilo je dosta filozofske rasprave njega sa članovima bande.

By morning, the gang leader arrived,

Ujutro je stigao vođa bande.

checked out Sudhir, decided he was no threat,

Pogledao Sudhira --

ocijenio da nije prijetnja, pa su ga pustili doma.

and they let him go home.

So Sudhir went home, took a shower, took a nap.

Tako je Sudhir otišao doma, Otuširao se, odspavao.

And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,

I vi i ja, bi vjerojatno, suočeni sa situacijom pomislili,

"I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead,

pa, pretpostavljam da ću pisati disertaciju o "The Greatful Dead".

I've been following them for the last three months."

Pratio sam ih zadnja tri mjeseca.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Sudhir sa druge strane, se vratio -- otišao do kvarta.

Sudhir, on the other hand,

got right back, walked down to the housing project,

went up to the second floor,

Otišao na drugi kat i rekao : "Ej, ljudi

and said: "Hey, guys, I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,

baš mi je bilo odlično s vama prošlu večer,

I wonder if I could do it again tonight."

mogu li prespavati još jednu večer."

And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship

To je bio početak jednog prekrasnog prijateljstva

that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years,

radi kojeg je Sudhir živio u kvartu s prekidima deset godina:

hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,

družio se u kućama s ovisnicima, išao je u zatvor sa članovima bande,

having the windows shot out of his car,

pucali su mu na auto,

having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --

policija mu je provalila u stan i ukrala mu disk sa računala --

you name it.

i razni drugi doživljaji.

But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,

U konačnici, priča ima sretan završetak za Sudhira,

who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.

koji je postao jedan od najpoštovanijih sociologa u državi.

And especially for me,

A posebno za mene, sjedeći u uredu s otvorenim tablicama Excela,

as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,

waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data

čekajući da Sudhir dođe do mene i donose najnovije informacije --

that he would get from the gang.

-- koje bi izvukao od bande.

(Laughter)

It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --

Bilo je to jedno od najneujednačenijih suradništva ikad --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.

-- ali mi je bilo drago izvuči korist iz svega.

So what did we find?

Što smo našli? Što smo našli u bandi? Pa, da vam kažem jednu stvar.

What did we find in the gang?

Well, let me say one thing:

We really got access to everybody in the gang.

Stvarno smo dobili pristup svakome u bandi.

We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.

Dobili smo unutarnji pogled na bandu, od vrha do dna.

They trusted Sudhir, in ways that really no academic has ever --

Oni su vjerovali Sudhiru -- na način na koji stvarno niti jedan akademik nije ikada --

or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,

ili bilo tko, bilo koji stranac -- zadobio toliko povjerenja od tih bandi,

to the point where they actually opened up

do točke u kojoj se oni otvaraju što je meni najzanimljivije:

what was most interesting for me -- their books,

the financial records they kept.

njihove knjige, financijske izvještaje koje čuvaju.

They made them available to us, and we not only could study them,

I omogućili su nam njihovo korištenje.

I ne samo da smo ih mogli proučavati, već smo ih mogli pitati pitanja o tome što je u njima.

but we could ask them questions about what was in them.

Ako moram to sažeti vrlo brzo kroz kratko vrijeme koje mi je na raspolaganju

So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have

what the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,

najniži dio bande jest ono zanimljivo pa,

it's that, if I had to draw a parallel between the gang

ako trebam napraviti paralelu između bande i bilo koje druge organizacije

and any other organization,

it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's,

rekao bih da je banda baš kao i McDonald's.

in a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.

U različitim dimnezijama -- restoran McDonald's.

So first, in one way,

Kao prvo -- što nije možda najinteresantnija sličnost,

which isn't maybe the most interesting way, but it's a good way to start --

ali je dobra za početak -- način na koji je organizirana.

is in the way it's organized, the hierarchy of the gang,

Hijerarhija bande; kako izgleda.

the way it looks.

So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.

Ovako izgleda organizacijska struktura bande.

I don't know if you know much about org charts,

Ne znam koliko znate o organizacijskoj strukturi,

but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,

ali ako biste pojednostavili McDonald's-ovu organizacijsku strukturu,

izgledala bih upravo ovako.

this is exactly what it would look like.

It's amazing, but the top level of the gang,

Ono što je zanimljivo jest vrhovna razina bande,

they actually call themselves the "Board of Directors."

oni sebe zovu "upravni odbor".

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And Sudhir says

Sudhir kaže da ovi frajeri nisu imali jako profinjeno viđenje

it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated view

of what happened in American corporate life,

o tome, što se dogodilo u američkom korporativnom životu.

but they had seen movies like "Wall Street,"

Ali su gledali filmove kao Wall Street, i naučili su

and they had learned a little bit about what it was like

malo o tome kako je živjeti u stvarnom svijetu.

to be in the real world.

Now, below that board of directors,

Ispod tog upravnog odbora, imate u biti ono što su regionalni potpredsjednici --

you've got essentially what are regional VPs --

people who control, say, the South Side of Chicago, or the West Side of Chicago.

ljudi koji kontroliraju, recimo, južnu stranu Chicaga, ili zapadnu stranu Chicaga.

Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment

Sudhit je upoznao vrlo dobro dečka, koji je ima nesreću dobiti zadatak

of trying to take the Iowa franchise,

preuzeti franšizu za Iowu.

which, it turned out, for this black gang,

(Smijeh)

Koja, kako je ispalo, za ovu crnu bandu, nije bila jedna od najpametnijih

was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors they undertook.

nastojanja kad govorimo o financijskom poduhvatu.

(Laughter)

But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.

(Smijeh)

Ali ono što stvarno čini bandu sličnu McDonald's-u jest njena franšiza.

The guys who are running the local gangs --

Frajeri koji su vodili lokalne bande --

the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --

kvart za kvart --

they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.

su bili baš kao oni frajeri, po nekoj logici, koji su vodili McDonald's.

They are the entrepreneurs.

Oni su poduzetnici.

They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.

Imaju ekskluzivna imovinska prava kontrolirati prodaju droge.

They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.

Dobiju ime bande koja stoji iza njih, za prodaju i marketing.

And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,

A oni su zapravo oni koji imaju dobit ili gubitak,

depending on how good they are at running the business.

ovisno koliko su dobri u vođenju posla.

Now, the group I really want you to think about, though,

Grupa o kojoj stvarno želim pričati jest ona na dnu,

are the ones at the bottom -- the foot soldiers.

pješaci.

These are the teenagers, typically,

Ovo su obično tinejđeri,

who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.

koji bi stajali na uglu ulice i prodavali drogu.

Extremely dangerous work.

Vrlo opasan posao.

And important to note is that almost all of the weight, all of the people

Bitno je napomenuti da je gotovo cijela težina, svi ljudi

in this organization are at the bottom -- just like McDonald's.

u ovoj organizaciju su na dnu.

OK, baš kao McDonald's.

So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people

Po nekoj logici, pješaci su vrlo slični ljudima

who are taking your order at McDonald's,

koji primaju vašu narudžbu u McDonald's-u.

and it's not just by chance that they're like them.

I stvarno, nije slučajnost da su oni poput njih.

In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.

Činjenica jest, u ovim kvartovima, oni bi bili isti ljudi.

So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually,

Tako bi neka djeca koja su radila u bandi, zapravo --

at the very same time, typically working part-time

u isto vrijeme, radila honorarno

at a place like McDonald's.

na radnom mjestu kao McDonald's.

Which already foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,

Koje već, po mom mišljenju, nagovješćuje rezultat o kojemu sam pričao,

about what a crappy job it was, being in the gang.

o tome kako je loš posao biti u bandi.

Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,

Jer očito, da je raditi u bandi tako krasan, unosan posao,

why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?

zašto bi ovi momci mjesečarili u McDonald's-u?

So what do the wages look like? You might be surprised.

Kako plaće izgledaju? Mogli biste se iznenaditi.

But based on being able to talk to them and to see their records,

Ali prema stvarnosti --

znate, imajući priliku razgovarati s njima, te vidjeti njihovu dokumentaciju,

this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.

ovako to izgleda u odnosima plaća.

The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 an hour.

Pješaci bi zarađivali oko 3,50 dolara po satu.

It was below the minimum wage. And this is well-documented.

To je bilo ispod minimalca, OK? A ovo je dobro dokumentirano.

It's easy to see by the patterns of consumption they have.

Jednostavno je za vidjeti iz obrazaca potrošnje koje imaju.

It really is not fiction -- it's fact.

Ovo nije fikcija -- ovo je činjenica.

There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.

Bilo je jako malo novaca u bandi, posebice na dnu.

Now if you managed to rise up, say, and be that local leader,

Ako se uspijete probiti -- i recimo postanete lokalni vođa,

the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee,

frajer koji je jednak McDonald's-ovom korisniku franšize --

you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.

zarađivali biste 100.000 dolara godišnje.

And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get

A to je najbolji posao kojemu se možete nadati

if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.

ako ste odrastali u jednom ovakvom kvartu kao mladi crnac.

If you managed to rise to the very top,

Ako se uspijete probiti do vrha,

200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.

200.000 ili 400.000 dolara godišnje je ono čemu se možete nadati.

Truly, you would be a great success story.

Bili biste velika priča o uspjehu.

And one of the sad parts of this is that, indeed,

Tužan dio ovoga je, da među mnogim posljedicama

among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine

is that the most talented individuals in these communities --

crack-a, jest i ona da većina talentiranih individualaca u ovim zajednicama --

this is what they were striving for.

žele doći do ovih pozicija.

They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,

Nisu pokušavali uspjeti legalnim putem,

because there were no legitimate channels out.

jer nije bilo legalnog izlaza.

This was the best way out.

Ovo je bio najbolji izlaz.

And it actually was the right choice, probably,

I ovo je zapravo bio pravi izbor, vjerojatno, za pokušati uspjeti -- ovim putem.

to try to make it out this way.

Pogledate ovo.

You look at this,

the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.

Veza s McDonald's-om završava ovdje.

The money looks about the same.

Novac je isti.

Why is it such a bad job?

Zašto je tako loš posao?

Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody shooting at you

Pa, razlog zbog kojeg je loš posao jest da netko

a lot of the time.

puca na tebe previše puta.

So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?

Kolike su stope smrtnosti ako netko puca na tebe?

We found, in our gang --

Pronašli smo da u našoj bandi -- doduše, ovo nije bila

and admittedly, this was not really a standard situation;

standardna situacija.

this was a time of intense violence, of a lot of gang wars,

Ovo je bilo doba intenzivnog kriminala -- puno ratova bandi --

as this gang actually became quite successful.

a ova banda je postala vrlo uspješna. Ali su platili cijenu.

But there were costs.

And so the death rate --

Tako je stopa smrtnosti -- da ne spominjemo stopu uhićenja,

not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded --

slanja u zatvor, ranjavanja -- stopa smrtnosti je u našem primjer

the death rate in our sample was seven percent per person per year.

bila sedam posto po osobi godišnje.

You're in the gang for four years,

Ako ste u bandi četiri godine, šanse da poginete su oko 25 posto.

you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.

That is about as high as you can get.

A to je vrlo visoko.

So for comparison's purposes,

Usporedbe radi, razmislimo o nekim drugim primjerima u životu

let's think about some other walk of life you may expect might be extremely risky.

u kojima možete očekivati visoke rizike.

Let's say that you were a murderer

Recimo da ste ubojica

and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.

i da ste osuđeni za ubojstvo, te poslani na smrtnu kaznu.

It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution:

Ispada, da su stope smrtnosti na smrtnoj kazni --

svih tipova, uključujući smaknuće -- dva posto godišnje.

two percent a year.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So it's a lot safer being on death row

Tako da je puno sigurnije biti na smrtnoj kazni, nego prodavati drogu na ulici.

than it is selling drugs out on the street.

That gives you some pause, for those of you who believe

Zbog ovog ćete malo zastati -- barem malo -- vi koji vjerujete

that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.

da će smrtna kazna imati veliki utjecaj na kriminal.

Da vam objasnim koliko je loše bilo u getu tijekom crack epidemije --

To give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --

and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,

a neću se usmjeriti na negativno,

but really, there's another story to tell you there --

ali stvarno, postoji još jedna priča koji vam moram ispričati --

if you look at the death rates just of random, young black males

ako pogledate stope smrtnosti --

slučajno odaberite, mladi crnac odrasta u getu u Sjedinjenim Državama --

growing up in the inner city in the United States,

the death rates during crack were about one percent.

stope smrtnosti tijekom crack epidemije su bile oko jedan posto.

That's extremely high.

And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.

To je ektremno visoko.

A ovo je nasilna smrt -- nevjerojatno je, na neki način.

To put it into perspective: if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,

Ako ovo usporedite s vojnicima u Iraku,

for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.

na primjer, koji se sad bore u ratu: 0,5 posto.

So in some very literal way,

Tako da doslovno, mladi crnac koji je odrastao

the young black men who were growing up in this country

u ovoj državi je živio u ratnoj zoni, vrlo slično

were living in a war zone,

very much in the sense that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.

vojnicima u Iraku koji su bili u ratu.

So why in the world, you might ask,

Pa zašto bi onda, pitali bi se, itko htio stajati

would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner

selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,

na uglu ulice i prodavati drogu za 3,50 za sat,

with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?

sa 25 postotnom šansom umiranja u sljedeće četiri godine?

Why would they do that?

Zašto bi to radili? Mislim da postoji nekoliko odgovora.

And I think there are a couple answers.

I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.

Kao prvo mislim da ih je povijest prevarila.

It used to be the gang was a rite of passage;

Prije je banda bila normalan put.

that the young people controlled the gang;

U kojemu mladi ljudi kontroliraju bandu -- a, kako odrastaš,

that as you got older, you dropped out of the gang.

izlaziš iz bande.

So what happened was,

the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --

Što se dogodilo jest,

da su ljudi koji su bili u pravo vrijeme na pravom mjestu --

the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid-to-late-'80s --

ljudi koji su vodili bande sredinom i krajem 80-ih --

became very, very wealthy.

postali jako, jako bogati.

And so the logical thing to think

Tako je logično razmišljanje bilo: "Pa, slijedeća generacija --

was that they are going to age out of the gang

like everybody else has,

oni će doći u godine kada će izići iz bande, kao i svi drugi,

and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth.

a slijedeća generacija će preuzeti bandu i steći bogatstvo."

There are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom.

Nevjerojatne sličnosti, s recimo, Internet bumom, zar ne?

The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.

Prvi ljudi u Silicijskoj dolini su postali vrlo, vrlo bogati.

And then all of my friends said, "Maybe I should go do that, too."

A onda su svi moji prijatelji rekli: "Možda bih i ja trebao to raditi."

And they were willing to work very cheap for stock options that never came.

Bili su spremni raditi za jako malo novaca, zbog prilike koja nikada nije došla.

In some sense, that's what happened, exactly,

Što se dogodilo, jest da su određeni ljudi

to the set of people we were looking at.

They were willing to start at the bottom,

koje razmatramo, bili spremni početi od nule.

just like, say, a first-year lawyer at a law firm

Recimo kao odvjetnici u odvjetničkim uredima --

is willing to start at the bottom,

odvjetnici koji rade svoju prvu godinu počinju od dna,

work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,

rade osamdeset sati za ne tako puno novaca,

because they think they're going to make partner.

jer smatraju da će tako steći partnere.

But the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.

Ali što se događa jest da su se pravila promijenila, te oni ne steknu partnere.

Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s

Uistinu, neki ljudi koji su vodili sve veće bande kasnih osamdesetih

are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.

vode još uvijek najveće bande u Chicagu danas.

They never passed on any of the wealth,

Nisu nikome ostavili svoje bogatstvo.

So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job,

Tako da je svatko tko je radio za 3,50 po satu, zapravo i ostao tamo, što je katatrofa.

and it turned out to be a disaster.

The other thing the gang was very good at was marketing and trickery.

Druga stvar u kojoj je banda bila jako dobra su marketing i varanje.

And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --

Primjera radi, nešto što bi banda radila jest --

the gang leaders would have big entourages,

znate, vođe bande bi imali velike pratnje,

and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.

vozili bi skupe aute i nosili skupi nakit.

So what Sudhir eventually realized as he hung out with them more,

Ono što je Sudhir shvatio dok se družio s njima,

is that, really, they didn't own those cars -- they just leased them,

jest, da oni zapravo nisu bili vlasnici auta.

Oni bi ih samo iznajmili -- jer si nisu mogli kupiti tako skupa auta.

because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.

And they didn't really have gold jewelry, they had gold-plated jewelry.

Nisu imali ni zlatni nakit -- imali su pozlaćeni nakit.

It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.

Vraća se sve to na, stvarno-stvarno naspram lažno-stvarno.

And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people

I stvarno, radili su svakave stvari da prevare ove mlade ljude

into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.

kako bi mislili da je dobra ideja biti u bandi.

So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid

Tako bi recimo, četrnaestogodišnjaku --

a whole roll of bills to hold.

dali cijeli, znate, svežanj novčanica.

That 14-year-old kid would say to his friends,

Taj četrnaestogodišnjak bih rekao "Pa, lijepo..."

"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."

Znate, onda bi rekao svojim prijateljima,

"Pogledajte sav novac koji sam dobio u bandi".

It wasn't his money -- until he spent it,

Međutim to nije bio njegov novac, dok ga nije potrošio. A onda

and then he was in debt to the gang,

and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.

je bio dužan bandi, te postao njihov sluga na neko vrijeme.

So I have a couple minutes.

Imam još nekoliko minuta.

Let me do one last thing I hadn't thought I'd have time to do,

Samo još jedna stvar

za koju nisam znao da ću imati vremena, a to je

which is to talk about what we learned more generally about economics,

što smo naučili o ekonomiji iz primjera bande.

from the study of the gang.

So, economists tend to talk in technical words.

Ekonomisti vole pričati stručnim riječima.

Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we over the data,

Često naše teorije propadnu kada dobijemo konkretne informacije.

but what's kind of interesting is that in this setting,

Ali ono što mi je interesantno je da u ovim okolnostima

it turned out that some of the economic theories

ispada da neke ekonomske teorije koje i nisu baš djelovale

that worked not so well in the real economy

worked very well in the drug economy,

u stvarnoj ekonomiji, su zapravo funkcionirale vrlo dobro u ekonomiji droge --

in some sense, because it's unfettered capitalism.

možda zato što je to nesputani kapitalizam.

Here's an economic principle.

Evo jedno ekonomsko načelo.

This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics,

Jedna od osnovnih ideja ekonomije rada, "kompenzacijska razlika".

called a "compensating differential."

It's the idea that the increment to wages that a worker requires

Ideja je u tome da povećanje plaće koji radnik zahtjeva

to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks,

kako bi ostao indiferentan u obavljanju dvaju zadataka --

one which is more unpleasant than the other.

od kojih je jedan neugodniji od drugog --

Compensating differential -- it's why we think garbagemen might be paid more

to se zove kompenzacijska razlika.

Zato mislimo da je smetlar vjerojatno plaćen više nego vrtlari, OK?

than people who work in parks.

The words of one of the members of the gang, I think, make this clear.

Prema riječima jednog od članova bande, "mislim da smo ovo riješili".

So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself --

Ispada da -- malo sam ubrzao.

it turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,

Ispada da ova banda, kada je u ratu,

they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.

plaća svoje pješake duplo.

It's exactly this concept.

To je upravo ovaj koncept.

Because they're not willing to be at risk.

Jer nisu spremni riskirati.

And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely, he says:

A riječi člana bande lijepo to objašnjavaju.

"Would you stand around here when all this shit ..." -- the shooting --

On kaže, "Bi li bio u ovome kada sva ova sranja" -- misli na pucanje --

"... if all this shit's going on? No, right?

"ako se svo ovo sranje događa? Zar ne?

So if I gonna be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."

Pa ako ćeš me pitati da riskiram svoj život, onda mi daj lovu, stari".

Pa u suštini, mislim da član bande to govori puno jasnije

I think the gang member says it much more articulately

što se događa, nego ekonomist.

than the economist, about what's going on.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Here's another one.

Evo još jedan.

Economists talk about game theory,

Ekonomist govori o teoriji igara --

that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.

da svaka igra s dvoje igrača ima Nash-ovu ravnotežu.

Here's the translation you get from the gang member.

Evo prijevoda koji dobijete od člana bande.

They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --

Pričaju o tome zašto ne idu pucati --

One thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang:

potez koji je zapravo odlična poslovna taktika u bandi,

if you go and just shoot guns in the air in the other gang's territory --

ako odeš i jednostavno pucaš u zrak -- samo pucaš u zrak na teritoriju druge bande --

people are afraid to go buy drugs there,

ljude će biti strah kupovati drogu kod njih.

they're going to come into your neighborhood.

Doći će u vaš kvart.

Here's what he says about why they don't do that:

Ali evo što on kaže zašto oni ne idu to raditi.

"If we start shooting around there, the other gang's territory,

On kaže, "Ako počnemo pucati tamo," -- na teritoriju druge bande -- "nitko,

nobody, I mean, you dig it, nobody gonna step on their turf.

i, mislim nitko, neće stupiti na njihov teritorij.

But we gotta be careful,

Ali moramo biti oprezni,

'cause they can shoot around here too and then we all fucked."

jer oni isto mogu pucati ovdje, a onda smo svi najebali".

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

A to je potpuno isti koncept.

So that's the same concept.

Then again, sometimes economists get it wrong.

Ali opet, nekada ga ekonomisti krivo shvaćaju.

One thing we observed in the data is that it looked like --

Jedna stvar koju smo promatrali u podacima je da, izgleda...

the gang leader always got paid.

Vođa bande uvijek biva plaćen, OK?

No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.

Bez obzira koliko je to ekonomski loše, on se uvijek namiri.

We had some theories related to cash flow,

Imali smo neke teorije povezane s protokom novca,

and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.

i nedostatkom pristupa tržištima kapitala, i stvarima poput tih.

Then we asked the gang member,

Ali onda smo smo pitali člana bande,

"Why is it you always get paid and your workers don't always get paid?"

"Pa, zašto ti uvijek dobiješ plaću, a tvoji radnici ne?"

Njegov odgovor je, "Imaš sve ove crnčuge ispod sebe koji te žele pokopati i uzet tvoj posao?

His response is,

"You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?

Ako počneš gubiti, oni vide da si slab i nikakav".

If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."

And I thought about it and said,

Razmislio sam si, i rekao,

"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,

"Izvršni direktori često sebi plaćaju bonuse od miljun dolara,

even when companies are losing a lot of money.

čak i kada poduzeća gube puno novaca.

And it never would really occur to an economist

Nikada se ekonomist ne bi sjetio da ova ideja o 'slabom i nikakvom'

that this idea of 'weak and shit' could really be important."

(Laughter)

može stvarno biti važna".

Ali možda -- možda 'slab i nikakav' --

Maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.

možda je 'slab i nikakav' bitna pretpostavka koju treba više analizirati.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam najljepša.

(Applause)