The human skills we need in an unpredictable world | Margaret Heffernan

Translator: Mario Cal Reviewer: Xosé María Moreno

Recently, the leadership team of an American supermarket chain

Hai pouco, o equipo de liderado dunha cadea de supermercados dos EEUU

decided that their business needed to get a lot more efficient.

decidiu que había que mellorar a eficiencia da empresa.

So they embraced their digital transformation with zeal.

Así que se apuntaron entusiasmados á súa transformación dixital.

Out went the teams supervising meat, veg, bakery,

Suprimiron os equipos de supervisión de carne, verduras e panadaría

and in came an algorithmic task allocator.

e introduciron un algoritmo para asignar tarefas.

Now, instead of people working together,

Ben, no canto de a xente, traballaren xunta

each employee went, clocked in, got assigned a task, did it,

cada empregado fichaba ao chegar, asignábaselle unha tarefa, realizábaa,

came back for more.

e volvía por máis.

This was scientific management on steroids,

Era xestión científica en grao sumo,

standardizing and allocating work.

á hora de estandarizar e asignar traballo.

It was super efficient.

Era supereficiente.

Well, not quite,

Ou non de todo,

because the task allocator didn't know

dado que o asignador de tarefas non sabía

when a customer was going to drop a box of eggs,

cando a un cliente lle ía caer unha caixa de ovos,

couldn't predict when some crazy kid was going to knock over a display,

non podía prever cando un neno revoltoso ía entornar un expositor,

or when the local high school decided

ou cando o instituto do barrio decidía

that everybody needed to bring in coconuts the next day.

que todo o mundo tiña que vir cun coco ao día seguinte.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

Efficiency works really well

A eficiencia vai moi ben

when you can predict exactly what you're going to need.

cando podes prever con precisión que vas necesitar.

But when the anomalous or unexpected comes along --

Pero cando xorde o anómalo ou o inesperado

kids, customers, coconuts --

--nenos, clientes, cocos--

well, then efficiency is no longer your friend.

ben, entón a eficiencia xa non está do teu lado.

This has become a really crucial issue,

Isto volveuse unha cuestión esencial,

this ability to deal with the unexpected,

esta capacidade para facer fronte aos imprevistos,

because the unexpected is becoming the norm.

porque os imprevistos están a converterse na norma.

It's why experts and forecasters are reluctant to predict anything

É o motivo polo que aos expertos e aos analistas lles custa facer predicións

more than 400 days out.

con máis de 400 días de antelación.

Why?

Por que?

Because over the last 20 or 30 years,

Porque nos últimos 20 ou 30 anos,

much of the world has gone from being complicated

boa parte do mundo pasou de ser complicado

to being complex --

a ser complexo --

which means that yes, there are patterns,

é dicir, é verdade que hai certas pautas,

but they don't repeat themselves regularly.

pero non se repiten de xeito regular.

It means that very small changes can make a disproportionate impact.

O que significa que cambios moi pequenos poden ter un impacto desproporcionado.

And it means that expertise won't always suffice,

E significa que non sempre vai abondar coa experiencia,

because the system just keeps changing too fast.

porque o sistema non deixa de mudar demasiado rápido.

So what that means

Así que o que todo iso significa

is that there's a huge amount in the world

é que hai una enorme cantidade de cousas

that kind of defies forecasting now.

que, digamos, se resisten ás predicións.

It's why the Bank of England will say yes, there will be another crash,

É por iso que o Banco de Inglaterra di que, efectivamente, haberá outra crise

but we don't know why or when.

pero non sabemos por que ou cando.

We know that climate change is real,

Sabemos que o cambio climático é real,

but we can't predict where forest fires will break out,

pero non podemos prever en que lugar se vai producir un incendio

and we don't know which factories are going to flood.

e non sabemos que fábricas van quedar asolagadas.

It's why companies are blindsided

Por iso ás empresas cólleas por sorpresa

when plastic straws and bags and bottled water

que, de repente, as pallas de plástico, as bolsas e as botellas de auga

go from staples to rejects overnight,

pasen de ser produtos básicos a ser algo que hai que evitar.

and baffled when a change in social mores

E confúndeos que un cambio de costumes

turns stars into pariahs and colleagues into outcasts:

convirta estrelas en marxinados e colegas en proscritos:

ineradicable uncertainty.

incerteza imsuprimible.

In an environment that defies so much forecasting,

Nun entorno que desafía de tal xeito as predicións,

efficiency won't just not help us,

a eficiencia non só non nos vai servir;

it specifically undermines and erodes our capacity to adapt and respond.

de feito socaba e debilita a nosa capacidade de adaptación e resposta.

So if efficiency is no longer our guiding principle,

Entón, se a eficiencia xa non é o noso pricipio guía,

how should we address the future?

como debemos afrontar o futuro?

What kind of thinking is really going to help us?

Que modo de pensar é o que nos vai axudar?

What sort of talents must we be sure to defend?

Que clase de talentos debemos asegurarnos de defender?

I think that, where in the past we used to think a lot about just in time management,

Penso que onde antes adoitabamos pensar moito en xestión "xusto a tempo",

now we have to start thinking about just in case,

temos que comezar a pensar en "por se acaso".

preparing for events that are generally certain

e prepararnos para acontecementos que son en xeral seguros

but specifically remain ambiguous.

pero permanecen ambiguos no específico.

One example of this is the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.

Un exemplo é a Coalición para a Preparación ante Epidemias, a CEPI.

We know there will be more epidemics in future,

Sabemos que no futuro haberá máis epidemias,

but we don't know where or when or what.

pero non sabemos onde, cando ou que.

So we can't plan.

Así que non podemos planificar nada.

But we can prepare.

Pero podemos prepararnos.

So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines for multiple diseases,

A CEPI está a crear múltiples vacinas para múltiples doenzas,

knowing that they can't predict which vaccines are going to work

aínda que non poden predicir cales desas vacinas van funcionar

or which diseases will break out.

ou que enfermidades van aparecer.

So some of those vaccines will never be used.

Así que algunhas desas vacinas non se van usar nunca.

That's inefficient.

É ineficiente.

But it's robust,

Pero é sólido,

because it provides more options,

porque ofrece máis opcións,

and it means that we don't depend on a single technological solution.

o que significa que non dependemos dunha única solución tecnolóxica.

Epidemic responsiveness also depends hugely

A capacidade de resposta ás epidemias tamén depende en gran medida

on people who know and trust each other.

de persoas que se coñecen e confían uns noutros.

But those relationships take time to develop,

Pero desenvolvermos esas relacións leva tempo,

time that is always in short supply when an epidemic breaks out.

e tempo é o que sempre escasea cando estala unha epidemia.

So CEPI is developing relationships, friendships, alliances now

Por iso a CEPI está a desenvolver relacións, amizades, alianzas,

knowing that some of those may never be used.

aínda que saben que algunhas delas poden non chegar a necesitarse.

That's inefficient, a waste of time, perhaps,

É pouco eficiente, se cadra unha perda de tempo,

but it's robust.

pero é sólido.

You can see robust thinking in financial services, too.

Tamén podemos ver razoamento sólido nos servizos financeiros.

In the past, banks used to hold much less capital

No pasado, os bancos adoitaban dispor de moito menos capital

than they're required to today,

do que se lles esixe hoxe,

because holding so little capital, being too efficient with it,

porque dispor de tan pouco capital, ser demasiado eficientes con el,

is what made the banks so fragile in the first place.

era precisamente a causa da fraxilidade dos bancos.

Now, holding more capital looks and is inefficient.

É certo que dispor de máis capital semella e, de feito, é ineficiente.

But it's robust, because it protects the financial system against surprises.

Pero dá solidez, porque protexe o sistema financeiro das sorpresas.

Countries that are really serious about climate change

Os países que toman en serio o cambio climático

know that they have to adopt multiple solutions,

saben que teñan que adoptar solucións múltiples,

multiple forms of renewable energy,

múltiples formas de enerxías renovables,

not just one.

e non unha soa.

The countries that are most advanced have been working for years now,

Os países máis avanzados levan anos traballando,

changing their water and food supply and healthcare systems,

cambiando o abastecemento de auga e alimentos e o sistema sanitario,

because they recognize that by the time they have certain prediction,

porque recoñecen que no momento en que poidan predicir con certeza,

that information may very well come too late.

se cadra esa información xa chega tarde.

You can take the same approach to trade wars, and many countries do.

O mesmo enfoque é aplicable ás guerras comerciais, como saben moitos países.

Instead of depending on a single huge trading partner,

No canto de depender dun único socio comercial enorme,

they try to be everybody's friends,

tratan de ser amigos de todos,

because they know they can't predict

dado que saben que non se pode predicir

which markets might suddenly become unstable.

que mercados poden volverse inestables de súpeto.

It's time-consuming and expensive, negotiating all these deals,

Negociar todos eses acordos require moito tempo e é caro,

but it's robust

pero é sólido,

because it makes their whole economy better defended against shocks.

porque proporciona unha defensa mellor de toda a economía fronte a sobresaltos.

It's particularly a strategy adopted by small countries

É sobre todo a estratexia que adoptan os países pequenos

that know they'll never have the market muscle to call the shots,

que saben que carecen de músculo para mandar no mercado,

so it's just better to have too many friends.

así que é simplemente mellor contar con demasiados amigos.

But if you're stuck in one of these organizations

Mais se estás atrapado nunha destas organizacións

that's still kind of captured by the efficiency myth,

que seguen prisioneiras do mito da eficiencia,

how do you start to change it?

como comezas a cambiala?

Try some experiments.

Intenta uns experimentos.

In the Netherlands,

Nos Países Baixos,

home care nursing used to be run pretty much like the supermarket:

a asistencia a domicilio xestionábase máis ou menos coma o supermercado:

standardized and prescribed work

traballo estandarizado e prescrito

to the minute:

minuto a minuto:

nine minutes on Monday, seven minutes on Wednesday,

nove minutos os luns, sete minutos os mércores,

eight minutes on Friday.

oito minutos os venres.

The nurses hated it.

Os enfermeiros odiábano.

So one of them, Jos de Blok,

Así que un deles, Jos de Blok,

proposed an experiment.

propuxo un experimento.

Since every patient is different,

Dado que cada paciente é distinto,

and we don't quite know exactly what they'll need,

e non sabemos ben que vai necesitar,

why don't we just leave it to the nurses to decide?

por que non deixamos que decidan os enfermeiros?

Sound reckless?

Soa irresponsable?

(Laughter)

(Risas)

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

In his experiment, Jos found the patients got better

Neste experimento, Jos descubriu que os pacientes melloraban

in half the time,

na metade de tempo,

and costs fell by 30 percent.

e os custos reducíronse un 30 por cento.

When I asked Jos what had surprised him about his experiment,

Cando lle preguntei a Jos que o sorprendera do experimento

he just kind of laughed and he said,

díxome rindo:

"Well, I had no idea it could be so easy

"Non tiña nin idea de que podía ser tan doado

to find such a huge improvement,

lograr melloras tan enormes,

because this isn't the kind of thing you can know or predict

porque isto non é algo que se poida saber ou predicir

sitting at a desk or staring at a computer screen."

sentado nunha mesa ou diante dun ordenador"

So now this form of nursing has proliferated across the Netherlands

Así que esta forma de asistencia espallouse polos Países Baixos

and around the world.

e por todo o mundo.

But in every new country it still starts with experiments,

Pero cada vez que se instala nun país comeza con experimentos,

because each place is slightly and unpredictably different.

porque en cada lugar hai pequenas diferencias imprevisibles.

Of course, not all experiments work.

Por suposto, non todos os experimentos funcionan.

Jos tried a similar approach to the fire service

Jos probou un enfoque similar co servizo de bombeiros

and found it didn't work because the service is just too centralized.

e viu que non funcionaba porque o servizo está demasiado centralizado.

Failed experiments look inefficient,

Os experimentos errados semellan ineficientes,

but they're often the only way you can figure out

pero son a miúdo o único xeito que temos de descubrir

how the real world works.

como funciona o mundo real.

So now he's trying teachers.

Así que agora está probando cos mestres.

Experiments like that require creativity

Experimentos coma ese requeren creatividade

and not a little bravery.

e non pouca audacia.

In England --

En Inglaterra --

I was about to say in the UK, but in England --

case digo Reino Unido, pero é en Inglaterra --

(Laughter)

(Risas)

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

In England, the leading rugby team, or one of the leading rugby teams,

En Inglaterra, o mellor equipo de rugby, ou un dos mellores,

is Saracens.

son os Saracens.

The manager and the coach there realized that all the physical training they do

O presidente e o entrenador decatáronse de que todo o seu adestramento físico

and the data-driven conditioning that they do

e a preparación baseada en datos que poñen en práctica

has become generic;

volvéronse xenéricos;

really, all the teams do exactly the same thing.

de feito, tódolos equipos fan exactamento o mesmo.

So they risked an experiment.

Así que se arriscaron a experimentar.

They took the whole team away, even in match season,

Levaron a todo o equipo, mesmo en plena temporada,

on ski trips

de viaxe a esquiar

and to look at social projects in Chicago.

e a ver proxectos sociais en Chicago.

This was expensive,

Foi caro,

it was time-consuming,

levou moito tempo,

and it could be a little risky

e podía ser un tanto arriscado

putting a whole bunch of rugby players on a ski slope, right?

poñer un feixe de xogadores de rugby nunha pista de esquí, non si?

(Laughter)

(Risas)

But what they found was that the players came back

Pero o que descubriron foi que os xogadores voltaban

with renewed bonds of loyalty and solidarity.

con vínculos renovados de lealdade e solidariedade.

And now when they're on the pitch under incredible pressure,

E agora cando están no campo baixo unha presión incrible,

they manifest what the manager calls "poise" --

manifestan o que o presidente chama "confianza" --

an unflinching, unwavering dedication

unha inquebrantable e firme

to each other.

dedicación mútua.

Their opponents are in awe of this,

Os seus rivais están abraiados,

but still too in thrall to efficiency to try it.

pero seguen demasiado atados á eficiencia como para intentar iso.

At a London tech company, Verve,

En Verve, unha tecnolóxica londinense,

the CEO measures just about everything that moves,

a directora xeral mide practicamente todo o que se move,

but she couldn't find anything that made any difference

pero non logrou atopar nada que tivese impacto

to the company's productivity.

na produtividade da empresa.

So she devised an experiment that she calls "Love Week":

Así que deseñou un experimento que chama "A semana do cariño":

a whole week where each employee has to look for really clever,

durante toda unha semana cada empregado ten que buscar algo enxeñoso,

helpful, imaginative things

práctico e imaxinativo

that a counterpart does,

que faga algún compañeiro,

call it out and celebrate it.

pregoalo e festexalo.

It takes a huge amount of time and effort;

Esixe moitísimo tempo e esforzo;

lots of people would call it distracting.

moitos dirían que é unha distracción.

But it really energizes the business

Pero en realidade estimula a actividade

and makes the whole company more productive.

e fai que toda a empresa sexa máis produtiva.

Preparedness, coalition-building,

Preparación, formación de coalicións,

imagination, experiments,

imaxinación, experimentos,

bravery --

coraxe --

in an unpredictable age,

nunha época imprevisible,

these are tremendous sources of resilience and strength.

esas son fontes extraordinarias de resiliencia e fortaleza.

They aren't efficient,

Son eficientes,

but they give us limitless capacity

pero apórtannos unha capacidade infinita

for adaptation, variation and invention.

para a adaptación, a variación e a invención.

And the less we know about the future,

E canto menos saibamos sobre o futuro,

the more we're going to need these tremendous sources

máis imos necesitar destas fontes fabulosas

of human, messy, unpredictable skills.

de destrezas humanas, caóticas e imprevisibles.

But in our growing dependence on technology,

Pero a nosa crecente dependencia da tecnoloxía

we're asset-stripping those skills.

lévanos a liquidar esas destrezas.

Every time we use technology

Cada vez que nos servimos da tecnoloxía

to nudge us through a decision or a choice

para animarnos a tomar unha decisión ou facer unha elección

or to interpret how somebody's feeling

ou para interpretar os sentimentos dalguén

or to guide us through a conversation,

ou para guiarnos nunha conversa,

we outsource to a machine what we could, can do ourselves,

estamos subcontratando unha máquina para o que podemos facer nós mesmos,

and it's an expensive trade-off.

e é un intercambio que sae moi caro.

The more we let machines think for us,

Canto máis deixamos que as máquinas pensen por nós,

the less we can think for ourselves.

menos podemos pensar por nós mesmos.

The more --

Canto máis --

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

The more time doctors spend staring at digital medical records,

Canto máis tempo pasan os médicos mirando historiais dixitalizados,

the less time they spend looking at their patients.

menos tempo pasan vendo pacientes.

The more we use parenting apps,

Canto máis usamos apps para pais e nais

the less we know our kids.

menos coñecemos aos nosos fillos.

The more time we spend with people that we're predicted and programmed to like,

Canto máis tempo pasamos con persoas que está previsto e programado que nos gusten,

the less we can connect with people who are different from ourselves.

menos capaces somos de conectar coas que son diferentes de nós.

And the less compassion we need, the less compassion we have.

E canta menos compaixón necesitamos, menos compaixón temos

What all of these technologies attempt to do

O que tentan facer todas estas tecnoloxías

is to force-fit a standardized model of a predictable reality

é aplicar á forza un modelo estandarizado dunha realidade previsible

onto a world that is infinitely surprising.

a un mundo de infinitas sorpresas.

What gets left out?

Que é o que queda fóra?

Anything that can't be measured --

Calquera cousa que non se poida medir --

which is just about everything that counts.

o que vén sendo practicamente todo o que importa.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

Our growing dependence on technology

A nosa crecente dependencia da tecnoloxía

risks us becoming less skilled,

ponnos en risco de perder destrezas,

more vulnerable

de ser máis vulnerables

to the deep and growing complexity

diante da profunda e crecente complexidade

of the real world.

do mundo real.

Now, as I was thinking about the extremes of stress and turbulence

Cando estaba a pensar nos extremos de tensión e axitación

that we know we will have to confront,

aos que sabemos que nos imos ter que enfrontar,

I went and I talked to a number of chief executives

fun falar cunha serie de directivos

whose own businesses had gone through existential crises,

cuxas empresas pasaran por crises existenciais

when they teetered on the brink of collapse.

nas que cambalearon ao bordo do colapso.

These were frank, gut-wrenching conversations.

Foron conversas francas e desgarradoras.

Many men wept just remembering.

Moitos choraron ao lembrar.

So I asked them:

Así que lles preguntaba:

"What kept you going through this?"

"Que che axudou a seguir adiante?"

And they all had exactly the same answer.

E todos respondían exactamente o mesmo.

"It wasn't data or technology," they said.

"Non foron os datos nin a tecnoloxía", dicían

"It was my friends and my colleagues

"Foron os meus amigos e os compañeiros

who kept me going."

os que me deron forza para seguir."

One added, "It was pretty much the opposite of the gig economy."

Un engadiu: "Foi máis ben o oposto á economía baixo demanda."

But then I went and I talked to a group of young, rising executives,

Pero entón fun falar cun grupo de xoves executivos emerxentes

and I asked them,

e pregunteilles:

"Who are your friends at work?"

"Que amigos tedes no traballo?"

And they just looked blank.

Quedaron mirando.

"There's no time."

"Non hai tempo."

"They're too busy."

"Están demasiado ocupados."

"It's not efficient."

"Non é eficiente."

Who, I wondered, is going to give them

Pregunteime quen lles vai dar

imagination and stamina and bravery

imaxinación e resistencia e coraxe

when the storms come?

cando cheguen as tormentas?

Anyone who tries to tell you that they know the future

Calquera que trate de dicirnos que coñece o futuro

is just trying to own it,

só intenta posuílo,

a spurious kind of manifest destiny.

unha forma espuria de destino manifesto.

The harder, deeper truth is

A verdade máis dura e profunda é

that the future is uncharted,

que o futuro é territorio inexplorado,

that we can't map it till we get there.

e non podemos facer mapas ata chegarmos aló.

But that's OK,

Pero non hai problema,

because we have so much imagination --

porque temos tanta información --

if we use it.

se a empregamos.

We have deep talents of inventiveness and exploration --

Temos un profundo talento para a inventiva e a exploración --

if we apply them.

se o poñemos en práctica.

We are brave enough to invent things we've never seen before.

Temos valor abondo para inventar cousas que nunca antes víramos.

Lose those skills,

Se perdemos esas destrezas,

and we are adrift.

quedamos á toa.

But hone and develop them,

Pero se as perfeccionamos e as desenvolvemos,

we can make any future we choose.

podemos crear calquera futuro que elixamos.

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)