Is there a limit to technological progress? - Clément Vidal

校对人员: Gia Hwang

Many generations have felt they’ve reached the pinnacle

许多代的人

都以为自己的科技发展已达顶端，

of technological advancement.

Yet look back 100 years and the technologies we take for granted today

但回顾 100 年前，

我们现在习以为常的科技

would seem like impossible magic.

放在当时就像不可思议的魔法。

So will there be a point where we reach an actual limit of technological progress?

那么，科技发展真有极限吗？

And if so, are we anywhere near that limit now?

如果有，我们离那个极限多远呢？

Half a century ago, Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev was asking

半个世纪前，

俄国天文学家尼古拉·卡尔达肖夫

在创造衡量科技发展的方法时 曾问过相似的问题，

similar questions when he came up with a way to measure technological progress;

even when we have no idea exactly what it might look like.

即便我们对此没有任何概念。

Anything we do in the future will require energy.

我们未来所有的活动都需要能量，

So Kardashev’s scale classifies potential civilizations,

因此，按照能源消耗等级，

whether alien civilizations out there in the universe or our own,

科尔达肖夫指数 把潜在文明分成了三个层次，

into three levels based on energy consumption.

不管是宇宙中的外星文明 还是我们自己的文明。

The tiny amount of energy we currently consume pales

比起未使用的能量，

next to what we leave untapped.

我们目前消耗的能量其实微不足道。

A type I, or planetary civilization, can access all the energy resources

I型，又名行星系文明，

可以充分利用母行星上的所有能源。

of its home planet.

In our case, this is the 174,000 terawatts

对人类来说，即地球从太阳 吸收到的 17.4 万太瓦的能量。

Earth receives from the sun.

We currently only harness about 15 terawatts of it,

我们目前只利用了 大约 15 太瓦的太阳能，

mostly by burning solar energy stored in fossil fuels.

主要是通过燃烧 储存在化石燃料中的太阳能。

To approach becoming a type I civilization,

想要更接近I型文明，

we would need to capture solar energy more directly and efficiently

我们需把太阳能板覆盖整个地球，

by covering the planet with solar panels.

来更直接、更有效地吸收太阳能。

Based on the most optimistic models,

基于最乐观的数据模型，

we might get there within just four centuries.

我们四个世纪内就可达此目标。

What would be next?

那接下来呢？

Well, the Earth only gets a sliver of the sun’s energy,

其实地球只得到极少的太阳能，

while the rest of its 400 yottawatts is wasted in dead space.

而剩下的 400 尧瓦太阳能 都浪费在了死寂的太空中。

But a type II, or stellar civilization,

但II型，即恒星系文明，

would make the most of its home stars energy.

则把母恒星的能量利用到极致。

Instead of installing solar panels around a planet,

II型文明不把太阳能板装在行星上，

a type II civilization would install them directly orbiting its star,

而是把它安装到其能量源恒星周围，

forming a theoretical structure called a Dyson sphere.

形成一个理论结构，叫戴森球。

And the third step, a type III civilization,

那第三步呢？

III型文明可以收集 整个母星系的能量。

would harness all the energy of its home galaxy.

But we can also think of progress in the opposite way.

但我们也可以用相反方式 来衡量科技进展：

How small can we go?

我们能到达的最小维度是多少？

为此，英国宇宙学家约翰·巴罗

To that end, British cosmologist John Barrow,

classified civilizations by the size of objects they control.

根据文明能控制的物体大小 来对其进行分类，

That ranges from mechanical structures at our own scale,

从人类自身规模的机械结构

to the building blocks of our own biology, down to unlocking atoms themselves.

到人类生物学维度的细胞，

再到原子的结构解析。

We’ve currently touched the atomic level,

虽然我们接触到了原子层级， 但对它的控制仍然有限，

though our control remains limited.

But we potentially could go much smaller in the future.

但我们将来极有可能 会深入到更小的层级。

To get a sense of the extent to which that’s true,

来了解一下这个真实的范围，

the observable universe is 26 orders of magnitude

我们能观测到的宇宙 是人体的 10 的 26 次方倍，

larger than a human body.

That means if you zoomed out by a factor of 10, 26 times,

意思是，如果把你放大 10 倍， 并且放大 26 次，

you’d be at the scale of the universe.

你的体积就跟宇宙一样大了。

But to reach the minimum length scale known as the Planck length,

但要达到最小长度，即普朗克单位，

you would need to zoom in 35 times.

你则需要缩小 35 次。

As physicist Richard Feynman once said,

正如物理学家理查德·费曼所言，

there’s plenty of room at the bottom.

“微观世界仍有很多空间”。

Instead of one or the other, it’s likely that our civilization

我们未来的文明发展 并不会局限于其一，

will continue to develop along both Kardashev and Barrow scales.

可能会沿袭卡尔达肖夫指数 与巴罗指数继续发展。

Precision on a smaller scale lets us use energy more efficiently

对更小层级的精确控制 令我们更有效地利用能源，

and unlocks new energy sources like nuclear fusion or even antimatter.

并开发新的能源，如核聚变，

抑或甚至是反物质，

And this increased energy lets us expand and build on a larger scale.

而这种增加的能源 则助力更大规模的发展与建设。

A truly advanced civilization then would harness both stellar energy

一个真正先进的文明，

则能同时利用恒星能量和亚原子能。

and subatomic technologies.

But these predictions weren't made just for us humans.

但这些预言并非只适用于我们人类，

They double as a possible means of detecting intelligent life

它们同时也可能成为 探测宇宙中智慧生命的方法。

in the universe.

If we find a Dyson sphere around a distant star,

如果在遥远的某颗恒星 周围找到了戴森球，

that's a pretty compelling sign of life.

那极有可能标志着生命的存在。

Or what if instead of a structure that passively soaked up

抑或外星文明并没有建造

all of a star’s energy like a plant,

像植物那样被动吸恒星能量的结构，

an alien civilization built one that actively sucked the energy

而是建造了一个主动 从恒星汲取能量的结构体，

out of the star like a hummingbird?

像只蜂鸟那样。

Frighteningly enough, we’ve observed super dense celestial bodies

可怕的是，

我们曾观测到超高密度的天体，

about the size of a planet that drain energy out of a much bigger star.

如行星般大小，

却能从大得多的恒星那里攫取能量，

It would be much too premature to conclude that this is evidence of life

但这还不足够证明 宇宙里还有其他生命。

in the universe.

There are also explanations for these observations

对于这些观测结果，

that don’t involve alien life forms.

也有些与外星生命形式无关的解释，

But that doesn’t stop us from asking: what if?

但它无法阻止我们提出疑问： 假如真有外星智慧呢？