Is there a limit to technological progress? - Clément Vidal

審譯者: Bruce Sung

Many generations have felt they’ve reached the pinnacle

許多世代的人都認為

他們的科技進步已到達頂峰

of technological advancement.

Yet look back 100 years and the technologies we take for granted today

然而回首百年前

今天我們視為理所當然的科技

would seem like impossible magic.

在當時被視為不可能的魔法

So will there be a point where we reach an actual limit of technological progress?

所以，真的會在某個時間點

我們將觸及科技的極限嗎？

And if so, are we anywhere near that limit now?

如果是這樣，我們現在距離 科技的極限有多遠呢？

Half a century ago, Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev was asking

半個世紀前

俄羅斯天文學家尼古拉·卡爾達肖夫

問了類似的問題

similar questions when he came up with a way to measure technological progress;

他想出一個測量科技進步的方法

even when we have no idea exactly what it might look like.

即使當時我們無法得知 未來會是什麼樣子

Anything we do in the future will require energy.

未來我們做的任何事情都需要能源

So Kardashev’s scale classifies potential civilizations,

卡爾達肖夫將潛在的文明進行分級

whether alien civilizations out there in the universe or our own,

不論是宇宙的外星文明 或是我們自己的

into three levels based on energy consumption.

都能依照能源消耗量分為三個等級

The tiny amount of energy we currently consume pales

我們目前消耗的少量能源

next to what we leave untapped.

比起尚未開發的部分，根本微不足道

A type I, or planetary civilization, can access all the energy resources

第一級文明，也稱為「行星文明」

能運用所有行星本身的能源

of its home planet.

In our case, this is the 174,000 terawatts

以我們為例，地球從太陽接收了 174,000 兆瓦的能量

Earth receives from the sun.

We currently only harness about 15 terawatts of it,

目前我們僅僅取得其中的十五兆瓦

mostly by burning solar energy stored in fossil fuels.

大部分是藉由燃燒 儲存著太陽能的化石燃料

To approach becoming a type I civilization,

為了要更趨近第一級文明

we would need to capture solar energy more directly and efficiently

我們必須更直接 更有效率地取得太陽能

by covering the planet with solar panels.

方法是以太陽能電池板覆蓋地球

Based on the most optimistic models,

根據最樂觀的模型推測

we might get there within just four centuries.

我們大概能在四個世紀後達成目標

What would be next?

接下來呢？

Well, the Earth only gets a sliver of the sun’s energy,

由於地球只能獲得 所有太陽能量的微小部分

while the rest of its 400 yottawatts is wasted in dead space.

400 X 10 的 24 次方瓦的能量 絕大部分在太空中被浪費

But a type II, or stellar civilization,

但是在第二級文明 或稱為「恆星文明」

would make the most of its home stars energy.

就能善用恆星大部分的能源

Instead of installing solar panels around a planet,

取代了原本圍繞著行星 安裝太陽能板的方式

a type II civilization would install them directly orbiting its star,

第二級文明直接以太陽能板 包圍整個恆星

forming a theoretical structure called a Dyson sphere.

所形成的這個理論結構 稱為「戴森球體」

And the third step, a type III civilization,

然後下一步呢？

第三級「星系文明」

would harness all the energy of its home galaxy.

能夠取得它本身所處星系的所有能源

But we can also think of progress in the opposite way.

然而，我們也能從另一個方向 來衡量科技進程

How small can we go?

我們能達到多小呢？

在那方面，英國的 宇宙學家約翰 · 巴羅

To that end, British cosmologist John Barrow,

classified civilizations by the size of objects they control.

根據文明能控制的 物體大小來進行分級

That ranges from mechanical structures at our own scale,

範圍由大到我們自身大小相仿的機械

to the building blocks of our own biology, down to unlocking atoms themselves.

小到組成我們身體的生物結構

甚至可以小到分解原子

We’ve currently touched the atomic level,

我們現有的科技觸及原子層級 但還不能完全控制它們

though our control remains limited.

But we potentially could go much smaller in the future.

但我們未來有可能探索更微小的世界

To get a sense of the extent to which that’s true,

底下的例子能讓你感受到 真實世界的尺度

the observable universe is 26 orders of magnitude

目前所能觀測得到的宇宙 是人體體積的「10 的 26 次方」倍

larger than a human body.

That means if you zoomed out by a factor of 10, 26 times,

意思是，每次放大十倍 連續放大 26 次

you’d be at the scale of the universe.

就能達到宇宙的規模

但為了達到最小的尺度 也就是「普朗克長度」

But to reach the minimum length scale known as the Planck length,

you would need to zoom in 35 times.

你需要縮小 35 次

As physicist Richard Feynman once said,

如同物理學家理察·費曼所言： 「在微小世界仍有許多的空間。」

there’s plenty of room at the bottom.

Instead of one or the other, it’s likely that our civilization

未來人類的文明 並非兩者只能取其一

will continue to develop along both Kardashev and Barrow scales.

可能依循卡爾達肖夫和巴羅 二者的衡量方式繼續發展

Precision on a smaller scale lets us use energy more efficiently

精確地控制微小尺度 能讓我們更有效地使用能源

and unlocks new energy sources like nuclear fusion or even antimatter.

並開發新能源，例如「核融合」

甚至是「反物質」

And this increased energy lets us expand and build on a larger scale.

增加的能源，能讓我們在 巨大尺度上持續擴張和建設

A truly advanced civilization then would harness both stellar energy

真正先進的文明

會同時運用恆星能量以及次原子科技

and subatomic technologies.

But these predictions weren't made just for us humans.

這些預測不只是適用於人類

They double as a possible means of detecting intelligent life

它們也可以作為

偵測宇宙智慧生命的方法

in the universe.

If we find a Dyson sphere around a distant star,

如果我們在遙遠的恆星外圍 發現戴森球體的結構

that's a pretty compelling sign of life.

那會是個很有說服力的生命跡象

Or what if instead of a structure that passively soaked up

或者，如果外星文明所建造的結構體

all of a star’s energy like a plant,

並不只是像植物那樣 只能被動地接收能量

an alien civilization built one that actively sucked the energy

而是像蜂鳥主動吸取恆星能量， 那我們該怎麼辦？

out of the star like a hummingbird?

Frighteningly enough, we’ve observed super dense celestial bodies

可怕的是，我們已經能觀測到 超高密度的天體

about the size of a planet that drain energy out of a much bigger star.

他們的大小跟行星一樣

卻能從比它更大的恆星吸取能量

It would be much too premature to conclude that this is evidence of life

當然現在還無法斷言

那是宇宙中具有其他生命的證據

in the universe.

There are also explanations for these observations

對於這些觀測結果

that don’t involve alien life forms.

還有其他各種解釋 是無關外來生命形式的

But that doesn’t stop us from asking: what if?

但這並不會阻止我們繼續問：

「如果這樣......會怎樣？」