What causes economic bubbles? - Prateek Singh

经济泡沫的成因？- 帕特里克·塞恩

翻译人员: Zhiting Chen 校对人员: Geoff Chen

How much would you pay for a bouquet of tulips?

你愿意出多少钱买一束郁金香？

A few dollars? A hundred dollars?

几美元？一百美元？

How about a million dollars?

如果是一百万美元呢？

Probably not.

应该不会买吧。

Well, how much would you pay for this house,

你愿意出多少钱买这栋房子，

or partial ownership of a website that sells pet supplies?

或者是售卖宠物用品网站的部分股权？

At different points in time,

在历史上某些时间点，

tulips, real estate and stock in pets.com

郁金香、房地产、pets.com网站的股票

have all sold for much more than they were worth.

都卖到了比它自身价值更高的价格。

In each instance, the price rose and rose and then abruptly plummeted.

在每个实例中，价格不断上涨 然后突然剧烈下跌。

Economists call this a bubble.

经济学家称之为泡沫。

So what is exactly is going on with a bubble?

那么，到底发生了什么呢？

Well, let's start with the tulips to get a better idea.

让我们从郁金香的例子开始解读

The 17th century saw the Netherlands enter the Dutch golden age.

在16世纪荷兰进入了 经济发展黄金时期。

By the 1630s, Amsterdam was an important port and commercial center.

在1630年代，阿姆斯特丹成为 重要的贸易港口和金融中心。

Dutch ships imported spices from Asia in huge quantities

荷兰商船从亚洲大量进口香料

to earn profits in Europe.

在欧洲赚取利润。

So Amsterdam was brimming with wealthy, skilled merchants and traders

阿姆斯特丹充满了富裕 且经商有道的商人和交易员，

who displayed their prosperity by living in mansions

他们展现富有的方式是 居住在豪华宅邸，

surrounded by flower gardens.

宅邸周围是种满鲜花的花园。

And there was one flower in particularly high demand:

某一种花有特别高的需求量：

the tulip.

郁金香。

The tulip was brought to Europe on trading vessels

郁金香是货船从东方

that sailed from the East.

带来欧洲的品种，

Because of this, it was considered an exotic flower

因此被称为异域风情的花，

that was also difficult to grow,

而且郁金香很难种植。

since it could take years for a single tulip to bloom.

一枝郁金香盛开需要好多年的时间。

During the 1630s, an outbreak of tulip breaking virus

在1630年代，爆发的 郁金香色彩变异病毒

made select flowers even more beautiful

让某些品种的郁金香愈发美丽，

by lining petals with multicolor, flame-like streaks.

因为病毒让画板有了多种颜色 犹如火焰般的纹路。

A tulip like this was scarcer than a normal tulip

这样的郁金香比普通品种更加稀少，

and as a result, prices for these flowers started to rise,

因此，这种郁金香的花朵的价格 开始上涨，

and with them, the tulip's popularity.

与此同时，郁金香开始风靡全国。

It wasn't long before the tulip became a nationwide sensation

很快就到了举国上下为之轰动，

and tulip mania was born.

郁金香热开始了。

A mania occurs when there is an upward movement of price

这场狂热伴随着另一种现象， 价格的上涨，

combined with a willingness to pay large sums of money

人们乐意出很高的价格

for something valued much lower in intrinsic value.

买一些价值很低的东西。

A recent example of this is the dot-com mania of the 1990s.

一个最近的例子就是 1990年代对网络公司的风靡。

Stocks in new, exciting websites were like the tulips of the 17th century.

新潮的网络公司的股票 犹如17世纪的郁金香花。

Everybody wanted some.

每个人都想要。

The more people who wanted the tulip, the higher the price could go.

越多人想要购买郁金香， 其价格也就会越来越高。

At one point, a single tulip bulb

在某个时刻，一支郁金香的价格

sold for more than ten times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman.

是熟练工匠年薪的10倍。

In the stock market,

在股票市场，

the price of stock is based on the supply and demand of investors.

股票价格由投资者的供需来决定。

Stock prices tend to rise

股票价格会上涨，

when it seems like a company will earn more in the future.

当这个公司未来盈利 的前景较为乐观。

Investors might then buy more of the stock,

投资者就会买购买更多的股票，

raising the prices even further due to an increased demand.

因为需求量的增加， 股票价格就会更高。

This can result in a feedback loop where investors get caught up in the hype

这会形成“反馈回路”， 投资者们为之兴奋疯狂，

and ultimately drive prices far above intrinsic value,

最终让价格远远高于 其内在价值，

creating a bubble.

创造了一个泡沫。

All that is needed for a mania to end and for a bubble to burst

狂热的结束以及泡沫的破裂 会发生在

is the collective realization that the price of the stock,

人们集体意识到 股票的价格，

or a tulip, far exceeds its worth.

或是郁金香的价格， 远远高于它的价值。

That's what happened with both manias.

对股票和郁金香的疯狂就是 这样终结的。

Suddenly the demand ended.

突然间需求不再。

Prices were pushed to staggering lows,

价格跌到令人惊讶的低点，

and pop!

然后，嘭！

The bubbles burst, and the market crashed.

泡泡破了，市场垮了。

Today, scholars work long and hard trying to predict what causes a bubble

当今，学者们花费长时间的努力 来试图预测泡沫是如何产生的，

and how to avoid them.

以及如何预防泡沫产生。

Tulip mania is an effective illustration

郁金香狂热就是个很好的例子

of the underlying principles at work in a bubble

来阐述泡沫的产生以及破灭

and can help us understand more recent examples

能够帮助我们理解现代的例子

like the real estate bubble of the late 2000s.

像是2000年后段的房地产泡沫。

The economy will continue to go through phases

经济会持续不断经历着

of booms and busts.

繁荣和萧条。

So while we wait for the next mania to start,

当我们等待下一场狂热开始，

and the next bubble to burst,

下一个泡沫破裂的时候，

treat yourself to a bouquet of tulips

为自己买一束郁金香花吧，

and enjoy the fact that you didn't have to pay an arm and a leg for them.

享受这个无需卖手卖脚 平易近人的价格。