What causes economic bubbles? - Prateek Singh

經濟泡沫所為何來? － 派瑞提克．辛格

譯者: Jingjing Lei 審譯者: Harry Chen

How much would you pay for a bouquet of tulips?

你會花多少錢買一束鬱金香呢？

A few dollars? A hundred dollars?

幾塊錢？幾百塊錢？

How about a million dollars?

幾百萬元你看怎樣呢？

Probably not.

應該是不必的啦！

Well, how much would you pay for this house,

那你會花多少錢來買這間房屋呢？

or partial ownership of a website that sells pet supplies?

或是買一個賣寵物週邊商品 網站的股權呢？

At different points in time,

在不同時間點

tulips, real estate and stock in pets.com

鬱金香、房地產、pet.com 網站的股票

have all sold for much more than they were worth.

全都賣得比它們當時後的價值高出許多

In each instance, the price rose and rose and then abruptly plummeted.

在各個案例裡商品價格開高走高 後來就突然地暴跌

Economists call this a bubble.

經濟學家稱其為「泡沫」

So what is exactly is going on with a bubble?

有了「泡沫」接下來到底 又會發生什麼事呢？

Well, let's start with the tulips to get a better idea.

讓我們先從鬱金香開始來講 以得到更清楚的概念吧

The 17th century saw the Netherlands enter the Dutch golden age.

十七世紀見證了荷蘭 進入「荷蘭黃金時代」

By the 1630s, Amsterdam was an important port and commercial center.

到了 十七世紀的三零年代 阿姆斯特丹是重要的港口跟商業中心

Dutch ships imported spices from Asia in huge quantities

荷蘭船隻從亞洲進口了大量的香料

to earn profits in Europe.

在歐洲大發利市

So Amsterdam was brimming with wealthy, skilled merchants and traders

所以阿姆斯特丹滿是 多金又精明幹練的批發商與貿易商

who displayed their prosperity by living in mansions

這些人住在圍繞著花園的豪宅

surrounded by flower gardens.

展現其榮顯

And there was one flower in particularly high demand:

在荷蘭有一種花格外搶手：鬱金香

the tulip.

The tulip was brought to Europe on trading vessels

鬱金香是被來自東方的貿易艦隊

that sailed from the East.

經海路帶至歐洲的

Because of this, it was considered an exotic flower

因為這樣它被視為異邦之花

that was also difficult to grow,

又很難種植

since it could take years for a single tulip to bloom.

因為要讓一支鬱金香綻放 可能得花上數年

During the 1630s, an outbreak of tulip breaking virus

在十七世紀的三零年代 爆發了一種會讓鬱金香破相的病毒

made select flowers even more beautiful

使得特選之花甚至更為美麗

by lining petals with multicolor, flame-like streaks.

在花瓣上條列出複色、火焰般的紋路

A tulip like this was scarcer than a normal tulip

像這樣的鬱金香 比普通的鬱金香更罕見

and as a result, prices for these flowers started to rise,

結果這些花的價格就開始起飛

and with them, the tulip's popularity.

隨之在後的就是鬱金香風潮

It wasn't long before the tulip became a nationwide sensation

很快鬱金香就成了全國所風靡之物

and tulip mania was born.

「鬱金香熱潮」就出現了

A mania occurs when there is an upward movement of price

當價格往上攀升

combined with a willingness to pay large sums of money

加上願意付出大把金錢

for something valued much lower in intrinsic value.

給內含價值低上許多的物品 熱潮就出現了

A recent example of this is the dot-com mania of the 1990s.

新近的熱潮案例就是二十世紀 九零年代的「網際網路熱潮」

Stocks in new, exciting websites were like the tulips of the 17th century.

新鮮、令人著迷的網路公司股票 就像十七世紀的鬱金香

Everybody wanted some.

大家都想分杯羹

The more people who wanted the tulip, the higher the price could go.

越多人想要鬱金香 價格就能飆得越高

At one point, a single tulip bulb

有時候單株鬱金香的球根

sold for more than ten times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman.

賣得比手藝高明之工匠的 年薪多出十倍以上

In the stock market,

在股票市場中

the price of stock is based on the supply and demand of investors.

股票的價格是依據投資者 的供給與需求決定

Stock prices tend to rise

當一間公司看起來可能 會在未來賺到更多錢

when it seems like a company will earn more in the future.

股票價格就會有上漲的趨勢

Investors might then buy more of the stock,

投資者接下來可能買進 更多這家公司的股票

raising the prices even further due to an increased demand.

因為增加的需求讓價格高出更多

This can result in a feedback loop where investors get caught up in the hype

這可能造成一個回噬的圈套 投資人被困在這樣的炒作裡了

and ultimately drive prices far above intrinsic value,

最終驅使股票的價格遠高於內含價值

creating a bubble.

製造出了「泡沫」

All that is needed for a mania to end and for a bubble to burst

而要讓熱潮息止以及泡沫破裂

is the collective realization that the price of the stock,

所需要做到的事情就是集體的 理解股票或是鬱金香的價格

or a tulip, far exceeds its worth.

遠遠高出它的價值

That's what happened with both manias.

那就是在這兩股熱潮裡發生的事情

Suddenly the demand ended.

突然間需求終結了

Prices were pushed to staggering lows,

價格被下壓到難以置信之低

and pop!

然後啵！一聲

The bubbles burst, and the market crashed.

泡沫爆開了還有市場遭受到衝擊了

Today, scholars work long and hard trying to predict what causes a bubble

如今學者專家們長時間、認真的 嘗試預測造成泡沫的原因

and how to avoid them.

以及如何避開「泡沫」

Tulip mania is an effective illustration

「鬱金香熱」是關於泡沫運作 潛在規則的有用說明

of the underlying principles at work in a bubble

and can help us understand more recent examples

以及能幫助我們瞭解更多近期的案例

like the real estate bubble of the late 2000s.

像是二十世紀末的「房地產泡沫」

The economy will continue to go through phases

經濟會持續歷經有盛有衰的階段

of booms and busts.

So while we wait for the next mania to start,

所以當我們在等待下一個熱潮的展開、

and the next bubble to burst,

下一個泡沫破裂的時候

treat yourself to a bouquet of tulips

賞給自己一束鬱金香吧

and enjoy the fact that you didn't have to pay an arm and a leg for them.

好好享受你不需要為其 付出極高代價的事實吧