Urbanization and the future of cities - Vance Kite

Urbanizacija i budućnost gradova - Vens Kajt (Vance Kite)

Prevodilac: Miloš Milosavljević Lektor: Mile Živković

Today ,more than half of all people in the world

Danas, više od polovine svih ljudi na svetu

live in an urban area.

živi u urbanim oblastima.

By mid-century, this will increase to 70%.

Do polovine veka, taj broj će se uvećati do 70%.

But as recently as 100 years ago,

Ali relativno skoro, pre sto godina,

only two out of ten people lived in a city,

samo dvoje od deset ljudi je živelo u gradu,

and before that, it was even less.

a pre toga, još i manje.

How have we reached

Kako smo dostigli

such a high degree of urbanization,

tako visok stepen urbanizacije

and what does it mean for our future?

i šta to znači za našu budućnost?

In the earliest days of human history,

U najranijim danima ljudske istorije

humans were hunter-gatherers,

ljudi su bili lovci sakupljači

often moving from place to place

i često su se selili

in search of food.

u potrazi za hranom.

But about 10,000 years ago,

Ali pre oko 10.000 godina,

our ancestors began to learn the secrets

naši preci su počeli da uče tajne

of selective breeding

selektivnog uzgoja

and early agricultural techniques.

i prve poljoprivredne tehnike.

For the first time,

Po prvi put,

people could raise food

ljudi su mogli da uzgajaju hranu,

rather than search for it,

a ne da idu u potragu za njom

and this led to the development

i to je dovelo do razvoja

of semi-permanent villages

privremenih sela

for the first time in history.

po prvi put u istoriji.

"Why only semi-permanent?" you might ask.

Možda se pitate zašto samo privremenih?

Well, at first, the villages still had to relocate

Pa, u početku, sela su još uvek morala da se premeštaju

every few years

svakih nekoliko godina

as the soil became depleted.

pošto se zemlja iscrpljivala.

It was only with the advent of techniques

Tek sa pojavom tehnika

like irrigation and soil tilling

kao što su navodnjavanje i obrađivanje zemlje,

about 5,000 years ago

pre oko 5.000 godina,

that people could rely on a steady

ljudi su mogli da računaju na ravnomerno

and long-term supply of food,

i dugoročno snabdevanje hranom

making permanent settlements possible.

i pravili su stalnija naselja.

And with the food surpluses

Sa viškom hrane

that these techniques produced,

koju su ovim tehnikama proizvodili,

it was no longer necessary for everyone to farm.

nije više bilo potrebno da je svako uzgaja.

This allowed the development

Ovo je omogućilo razvoj

of other specialized trades,

specijalizovane trgovine

and, by extension, cities.

i nadalje, razvoj gradova.

With cities now producing surplus food,

Sa gradovima koji su sada proizvodili višak hrane,

as well as tools,

kao i alata,

crafts,

zanatskih predmeta i druge robe,

and other goods,

there was now the possibility of commerce

postojala je mogućnost trgovine

and interaction over longer distances.

i interakcije na većim razdaljinama.

And as trade flourished,

Kako je trgovina cvetala,

so did technologies that facilitated it,

tako su cvetale i tehnologije koje su je omogućavale,

like carts,

kao što su zaprege,

ships,

brodovi,

roads,

putevi

and ports.

i luke.

Of course, these things required even more labor

Naravno, ove stvari su zahtevale još više radne snage

to build and maintain,

za gradnju i održavanje,

so more people were drawn

tako da je to privlačilo više ljudi

from the countryside to the cities

sa sela u gradove,

as more jobs and opportunities

pošto je više poslova i prilika

became available.

bilo na raspolaganju.

If you think modern cities are overcrowded,

Ako mislite da su moderni gradovi prenatrpani,

you may be surprised to learn

iznenadićete se kad saznate

that some cities in 2000 B.C. had population densities

da su neki gradovi 2.000 pre n.e. imali gustinu stanovništva

nearly twice as high as that of Shanghai or Calcutta.

skoro dvaput veću od Šangaja ili Kalkute.

One reason for this

Jedan od razloga za ovo je bio

was that transportation was not widely available,

taj što prevoz nije bio široko dostupan,

so everything had to be within walking distance,

pa je sve moralo da bude na kraćoj udaljenosti,

including the few sources of clean water

uključujući i malobrojne izvore čiste vode

that existed then.

koji su tada postojali.

And the land area of the city

I teritorija grada

was further restricted by the need for walls

je dalje bila ograničena potrebom za zidovima

to defend against attacks.

za zaštitu od napada.

The Roman Empire was able to develop infrastructure

Rimskom carstvu uspelo je da napravi infrastrukturu

to overcome these limitations,

koja prevazilazi ova ograničenja,

but other than that,

ali inače,

modern cities as we know them,

moderni gradovi kakve poznajemo

didn't really get their start

nisu to uspeli

until the Industrial Revolution,

sve do Industrijske revolucije

when new technology deployed on a mass scale

kada je visoka tehnologija počela da se koristi masovno,

allowed cities to expand and integrate further,

omogućujući gradovima da se dalje šire i integrišu,

establishing police,

da uvedu policiju,

fire,

vatrogasce

and sanitation departments,

i zdravstvene ustanove,

as well as road networks,

kao i mreže puteva

and later electricity distribution.

i kasnije, distribuciju struje.

So, what is the future of cities?

Šta je, dakle, budućnost gradova?

Global population is currently more than 7 billion

Svetsko stanovništvo trenutno broji više od 7 milijardi ljudi

and is predicted to top out around 10 billion.

i predviđa se da će dostići gornju granicu od oko 10 milijardi.

Most of this growth will occur

Najveći deo ovog rasta će se desiti

in the urban areas of the world's poorest countries.

u urbanim oblastima najsiromašnijih zemalja sveta.

So, how will cities need to change

Kako će onda gradovi morati da se promene

to accommodate this growth?

da bi se prilagodili ovom rastu?

First, the world will need to seek ways

Prvo, svet će morati da potraži načine

to provide adequate food,

da obezbedi adekvatnu hranu,

sanitation,

higijenu

and education for all people.

i obrazovanje za sve ljude.

Second, growth will need to happen

Drugo, rast će morati da se odvija

in a way that does not damage the land

tako da ne uništi zemlju

that provides us with the goods and services

koja nas snabdeva robom i uslugama

that support the human population.

za održavanje ljudske populacije.

Food production might move

Proizvodnja hrane se možda premesti

to vertical farms and skyscrapers,

u vertikalne farme i oblakodere,

rooftop gardens,

u bašte na krovu

or vacant lots in city centers,

ili u gradilišta u centru grada,

while power will increasingly come

dok će napajanje sve više dolaziti

from multiple sources of renewable energy.

od brojnih izvora obnovljive energije.

Instead of single-family homes,

Umesto porodičnih kuća,

more residences will be built vertically.

više stanova će se graditi vertikalno.

We may see buildings that contain everything

Možda budemo videli zgrade koje sadrže

that people need for their daily life,

sve što je ljudima potrebno za svakodnevni život,

as well as a smaller, self-sufficient cities

kao i manje samoodržive gradove,

focused on local and sustainable production.

fokusirane na lokalnu i održivu proizvodnju.

The future of cities is diverse,

Budućnost gradova je raznolika,

malleable,

fleksibilna

and creative,

i kreativna

no longer built around a single industry,

i nije više izgrađena oko jedne industrije

but reflecting an increasingly connected

već odražava sve veću povezanost

and global world.

i globalni svet.