Urbanization and the future of cities - Vance Kite

都市化現象以及城市的未來 - 汎斯．凱特

譯者: Jessica Fan 審譯者: Elaine Cheng

Today ,more than half of all people in the world

今日,全球有超過一半以上的人口

live in an urban area.

居住在都市區域

By mid-century, this will increase to 70%.

在2050年前這個數字會增加到七成

But as recently as 100 years ago,

然而距今約一百年前

only two out of ten people lived in a city,

每十人中，只有兩人住在都市中

and before that, it was even less.

在那之前甚至更少

How have we reached

究竟我們是怎麼達到

such a high degree of urbanization,

如此高程度的都市化

and what does it mean for our future?

而這對我們的未來又意味著什麼呢?

In the earliest days of human history,

根據早期人類歷史記載

humans were hunter-gatherers,

人們是狩獵採集者

often moving from place to place

必須經常四處遷徙

in search of food.

以便尋找食物

But about 10,000 years ago,

但約莫一萬年前

our ancestors began to learn the secrets

我們的祖先 開始發現一些生存的秘辛

of selective breeding

像是選擇性育種

and early agricultural techniques.

以及早期的農業技術

For the first time,

有史以來第一次

people could raise food

人類可以自己栽種食物

rather than search for it,

而不是透過採集獲得

and this led to the development

這也帶來了一個突破性的發展

of semi-permanent villages

那就是半定居式村莊

for the first time in history.

這個現象是史無前例的

"Why only semi-permanent?" you might ask.

你可能會問:為什麼只有半定居呢?

Well, at first, the villages still had to relocate

首先,這些村莊每隔數年

every few years

就要遷徙一次

as the soil became depleted.

是因為地力耗盡的緣故

It was only with the advent of techniques

直到新技術出現 才有了轉機

like irrigation and soil tilling

約莫五千年前

about 5,000 years ago

人們學會灌溉和翻土耕地

that people could rely on a steady

這使人們得以仰賴一個穩定

and long-term supply of food,

而且長期的食物供應

making permanent settlements possible.

使永久定居成為可能

And with the food surpluses

也因為這些新技術

that these techniques produced,

帶來的多餘的食物

it was no longer necessary for everyone to farm.

不再需要人人當農夫

This allowed the development

這又促進了

of other specialized trades,

其他專門行業的發展

and, by extension, cities.

也就是說,城市誕生了

With cities now producing surplus food,

有了城市提供豐足的食物,

as well as tools,

各種工具,

crafts,

專精技藝,

and other goods,

以及其他商品,

there was now the possibility of commerce

貿易得以進行

and interaction over longer distances.

也開始有了跨國界的互動

And as trade flourished,

也因貿易日漸興盛

so did technologies that facilitated it,

各式交通工具 和建設的發展也跟著日新月異

like carts,

像是牛車,

ships,

船隻,

roads,

道路,

and ports.

以及港口

Of course, these things required even more labor

當然,這些東西需要更多人力

to build and maintain,

來建造並維護

so more people were drawn

所以越來越多人

from the countryside to the cities

從鄉村遷移到城市

as more jobs and opportunities

因為城市提供了

became available.

更多工作和機會

If you think modern cities are overcrowded,

如果你認為 許多現代城市已經人口爆炸

you may be surprised to learn

你絕對會感到非常驚訝

that some cities in 2000 B.C. had population densities

因為有些西元兩千年前的城市

nearly twice as high as that of Shanghai or Calcutta.

人口密度幾乎是 上海或加爾各答的兩倍

One reason for this

造成此現象的其中一個原因

was that transportation was not widely available,

是由於當時交通不發達

so everything had to be within walking distance,

所有事情都得在步行範圍內達成

including the few sources of clean water

這也包括了

that existed then.

汲取得來不易的水資源

And the land area of the city

城市的土地

was further restricted by the need for walls

又因須建造城牆抵禦外侮

to defend against attacks.

而受到更多限制

The Roman Empire was able to develop infrastructure

儘管羅馬帝國已發展了公共建設

to overcome these limitations,

以便克服這些限制

but other than that,

但除此之外，

modern cities as we know them,

我們今日所知的現代城市

didn't really get their start

直到工業革命時

until the Industrial Revolution,

才真正開始發展

when new technology deployed on a mass scale

當新科技背大量且廣泛地運用

allowed cities to expand and integrate further,

使城市得以進一步擴張且整合

establishing police,

像是建立警察制度,

fire,

消防隊,

and sanitation departments,

公衛部門,

as well as road networks,

當然也包括道路系統,

and later electricity distribution.

和之後的電力供應設施

So, what is the future of cities?

所以,都市的未來發展為何呢?

Global population is currently more than 7 billion

現今全球已經有超過70億人口

and is predicted to top out around 10 billion.

而且據估計未來將突破100億

Most of this growth will occur

大部分的人口成長將發生在

in the urban areas of the world's poorest countries.

全世界最窮的國家中的都市區域

So, how will cities need to change

那麼城市該做些什麼改變

to accommodate this growth?

以應付如此龐大的成長呢?

First, the world will need to seek ways

首先,各國須設法提供人民

to provide adequate food,

足夠的食物,

sanitation,

公共衛生設施,

and education for all people.

以及教育

Second, growth will need to happen

此外,人口成長必須發生在

in a way that does not damage the land

不會破壞土地的前提上

that provides us with the goods and services

因為土地等自然資源提供人類

that support the human population.

許多賴以為生的必需品

Food production might move

食物生產可能會移往

to vertical farms and skyscrapers,

垂直農場,摩天大樓,

rooftop gardens,

空中"菜"園,

or vacant lots in city centers,

或市中心空曠的土地

while power will increasingly come

此外也會持續增加

from multiple sources of renewable energy.

多種不同再生能源的使用

Instead of single-family homes,

獨棟的房子將逐漸式微

more residences will be built vertically.

取而代之的是垂直加蓋的住宅

We may see buildings that contain everything

未來我們將看到建築物

that people need for their daily life,

內部涵蓋人們所有生存必須品

as well as a smaller, self-sufficient cities

儼然如一個自給自足的小型城市

focused on local and sustainable production.

仰賴能永續利用的當地產品

The future of cities is diverse,

都市的未來是多樣化的,

malleable,

可塑性高的.

and creative,

而且充滿創意

no longer built around a single industry,

城市不再是建立於單一工業上

but reflecting an increasingly connected

而是反映了一個緊密連結

and global world.

且國際化的地球村