Urbanization and the future of cities - Vance Kite

城市化与未来的城市 - 万斯·凯特

翻译人员: Binglei Shea 校对人员: Zhiting Chen

Today ,more than half of all people in the world

今天，世界上超过一半的人口

live in an urban area.

是城市居民。

By mid-century, this will increase to 70%.

到本世纪中叶， 城市人口将增加到70%。

But as recently as 100 years ago,

而仅在一百年前，

only two out of ten people lived in a city,

城市人口只占两成，

and before that, it was even less.

这之前，城市人口更少。

How have we reached

我们怎么会这样

such a high degree of urbanization,

高度城市化了呢?

and what does it mean for our future?

高度城市化对我们未来又意味着什么?

In the earliest days of human history,

在人类初期，

humans were hunter-gatherers,

人是靠打猎和摘果子生存，

often moving from place to place

四处游荡

in search of food.

觅食。

But about 10,000 years ago,

但是大约一万年前，

our ancestors began to learn the secrets

我们的祖先开始掌握了

of selective breeding

饲养动物的秘密

and early agricultural techniques.

和早期农耕技术。

For the first time,

人类首次

people could raise food

开始生产食物

rather than search for it,

而不再简单寻找食物了。

and this led to the development

由此，人类历史首次

of semi-permanent villages

出现了

for the first time in history.

半固定村落。

"Why only semi-permanent?" you might ask.

你可能要问：“怎么还是半固定的呀?”

Well, at first, the villages still had to relocate

那时候，每隔几年，

every few years

村子就得搬家，

as the soil became depleted.

因为土地用了几年就会贫瘠。

It was only with the advent of techniques

大概五千年前，

like irrigation and soil tilling

灌溉和犁地等

about 5,000 years ago

技术的出现

that people could rely on a steady

带来了长期，

and long-term supply of food,

稳定的食物，

making permanent settlements possible.

人类才终于可以长期定居了。

And with the food surpluses

那么，技术带来了

that these techniques produced,

食物的盈余，

it was no longer necessary for everyone to farm.

就没必要大家都去农耕。

This allowed the development

有人就开始

of other specialized trades,

开发别的行业了，

and, by extension, cities.

进而产生出，城市。

With cities now producing surplus food,

因为城市制造了盈余的食物，

as well as tools,

工具，

crafts,

艺术品，

and other goods,

等各种商品，

there was now the possibility of commerce

自然就产生了商业，

and interaction over longer distances.

以及远距离之间的往来。

And as trade flourished,

贸易的繁荣,，

so did technologies that facilitated it,

又促使技术突飞猛进，

like carts,

比如，有轮车，

ships,

轮船，

roads,

道路，

and ports.

还有港口。

Of course, these things required even more labor

当然，这些又需要人力

to build and maintain,

修建维护，

so more people were drawn

引发更多的人离开

from the countryside to the cities

农村来到城市，

as more jobs and opportunities

因为城市

became available.

工作机会多。

If you think modern cities are overcrowded,

如果你觉得现在的城市人口过多，

you may be surprised to learn

那我现在告诉你，

that some cities in 2000 B.C. had population densities

公元前两千年， 有些城市人口密度是

nearly twice as high as that of Shanghai or Calcutta.

上海和加尔各答的两倍。 是不是吓了你一跳?

One reason for this

那时候人口过密的原因之一是

was that transportation was not widely available,

交通不发达，

so everything had to be within walking distance,

大家都是靠走路， 所以就近才方便，

including the few sources of clean water

另外，干净水源

that existed then.

也有限。

And the land area of the city

那时候，城市的土地类型

was further restricted by the need for walls

要考虑到是否适合建城墙，

to defend against attacks.

以抵御外敌侵犯。

The Roman Empire was able to develop infrastructure

罗马帝国开发出基础设施

to overcome these limitations,

克服了这些限制，

but other than that,

但除此之外，

modern cities as we know them,

据我们所知，

didn't really get their start

现代城市是直到工业革命时

until the Industrial Revolution,

才终于开始蓬勃发展的。

when new technology deployed on a mass scale

当时，新科技的大量采用

allowed cities to expand and integrate further,

促进城市的发展和资源整合，

establishing police,

建立了警察局，

fire,

消防部，

and sanitation departments,

和卫生部，

as well as road networks,

修建了交通网，

and later electricity distribution.

而后又有了电供应。

So, what is the future of cities?

那么，未来城市是什么样子呢?

Global population is currently more than 7 billion

目前全球七十多亿人口，

and is predicted to top out around 10 billion.

而且预计地球最多能承受一百亿人口。

Most of this growth will occur

人口增长最快的地方将是

in the urban areas of the world's poorest countries.

最贫穷国家的城市区域。

So, how will cities need to change

那么，城市该如何发展以应对

to accommodate this growth?

激增的人口呢?

First, the world will need to seek ways

首先，要想办法给所有人

to provide adequate food,

提供足够的食物，

sanitation,

卫生，

and education for all people.

和教育。

Second, growth will need to happen

其次，人口增长同时又

in a way that does not damage the land

不能破坏

that provides us with the goods and services

人类赖以生存的，

that support the human population.

供我们休养生息的土地

Food production might move

食品制造业大概要搬到

to vertical farms and skyscrapers,

垂直牧场和摩天大厦里，

rooftop gardens,

屋顶花园里，

or vacant lots in city centers,

或是市中心的空地上，

while power will increasingly come

能源使用方面，将会更多采用

from multiple sources of renewable energy.

各个种类的可再生能源

Instead of single-family homes,

别墅将越来越少，

more residences will be built vertically.

取而代之的会是更多的高楼大厦。

We may see buildings that contain everything

楼内设施应有尽有，

that people need for their daily life,

人们日常所需在楼内均可买得。

as well as a smaller, self-sufficient cities

也会有小型的，致力于当地可持续发展型的

focused on local and sustainable production.

自给自足城市。

The future of cities is diverse,

未来城市将是形形色色的，

malleable,

具有可塑性，

and creative,

并且别出心裁的，

no longer built around a single industry,

未来城市不再围绕某一行业而设，

but reflecting an increasingly connected

而是会反映出日益紧密连接的

and global world.

全球化趋势。