Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? - R. Saravanan

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Bosnjak Lektor: Ivana Korom

From 2016 to 2019,

Od 2016. do 2019. godine,

meteorolozi su zapazili rekordni broj toplotnih talasa širom sveta,

meteorologists saw record-breaking heat waves around the globe,

rampant wildfires in California and Australia,

nezaustavljivih šumskih požara u Kaliforniji i Australiji

and the longest run of category 5 tropical cyclones on record.

i najduži zabeleženi tropski ciklon pete kategorije.

The number of extreme weather events has been increasing for the last 40 years,

Broj ekstremnih vremenskih neprilika povećava se poslednjih 40 godina,

and current predictions suggest that trend will continue.

a trenutna predviđanja sugerišu da će se ovaj trend nastaviti.

But are these natural disasters simply bad weather?

Nego, da li su ove prirodne nepogode prosto samo loše vremenske prilike?

Or are they due to our changing climate?

Ili su one posledica menjanja klime?

To answer this question

Kako bismo odgovorili na ovo pitanje

we need to understand the differences between weather and climate—

moramo da razumemo razlike između vremenskih prilika i klime,

what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

šta su, kako ih predviđamo, i šta nam ta predviđanja mogu pokazati.

Meteorologists define weather as the conditions of the atmosphere

Meteorolozi opisuju vremenske prilike kao uslove atmosfere

at a particular time and place.

u određeno vreme i na određenom mestu.

Currently, researchers can predict a region’s weather for the next week

Trenutno, istraživači mogu da predvide vremenske prilike neke regije

with roughly 80% accuracy.

za sledeću nedelju sa 80 posto preciznosti.

Climate describes a region’s average atmospheric conditions

Klima opisuje prosečne atmosferske uslove neke regije

over periods of a month or more.

tokom perioda od mesec dana ili više.

Climate predictions can forecast average temperatures for decades to come,

Predviđanja klime mogu da prognoziraju prosečne temperature decenije unapred,

but they can’t tell us what specific weather events to expect.

ali ne mogu nam kazati koje vremenske okolnosti da očekujemo.

These two types of predictions give us such different information

Ova dva tipa predviđanja nam daju tako različite informacije

because they’re based on different data.

jer su zasnovana na različitim podacima.

To forecast weather,

Da bi prognozirali vremenske prilike,

meteorologists need to measure the atmosphere’s initial conditions.

meteorolozi treba da izmere početne atmosferske uslove.

These are the current levels of precipitation, air pressure, humidity,

To su trenutni nivoi padavina, vazdušnog pritiska, vlažnosti,

wind speed and wind direction that determine a region’s weather.

brzine i smera vetra koji određuju vremenske prilike regije.

Twice every day, meteorologists from over 800 stations around the globe

Dvaput dnevno, meteorolozi iz preko 800 stanica širom sveta

release balloons into the atmosphere.

puštaju balone u atmosferu.

These balloons carry instruments called radiosondes,

Ti baloni prenose opremu koja se zove radiosonda,

which measure initial conditions

koja meri početne uslove i prenosi rezultate

and transmit their findings to international weather centers.

do internacionalnih hidrometeoroloških centara.

Meteorologists then run the data through predictive physics models

Meteorolozi onda ubacuju podatke u predvidive fizičke modele

that generate the final weather forecast.

koji generišu konačnu vremesku prognozu.

Unfortunately, there’s something stopping this global web of data

Nažalost, postoji nešto što sprečava ovu globalnu mrežu podataka

from producing a perfect prediction:

da proizvede perfektnu prognozu.

weather is a fundamentally chaotic system.

Vremenske prilike fundamelntalno su haotičan sistem.

This means it’s incredibly sensitive and impossible to perfectly forecast

To znači da su neverovatno osetljive i da ih je nemoguće perfetkno prognozirati

without absolute knowledge of all the system’s elements.

bez potpunog znanja svih elemenata sistema.

In a period of just ten days,

U periodu od samo deset dana,

even incredibly small disturbances can massively impact atmospheric conditions—

čak i neverovatno male smetnje mogu mnogo da utiču na atmosferske uslove,

making it impossible to reliably predict weather beyond two weeks.

čineći nemogućim da se pouzdano predvide vremenske prilike preko dve nedelje.

Climate prediction, on the other hand, is far less turbulent.

Predviđanje klime, sa druge strane, je daleko manje turbulentno.

This is partly because a region’s climate is, by definition,

Zbog toga što je klima neke regije, po definiciji,

the average of all its weather data.

prosek svih njenih podataka o vremenskim uslovima.

But also because climate forecasts ignore

Ali i takođe zbog toga što prognoziranje klime ignoriše

what’s currently happening in the atmosphere,

šta se trenutno dešava u atmosferi,

and focus on the range of what could happen.

i fokusira se na opseg onoga što bi moglo da se desi.

These parameters are known as boundary conditions,

Ovi parametri su poznati kao granični uslovi,

and as their name suggests, they act as constraints on climate and weather.

a kao što ime sugeriše, ponašaju se kao prepreke klimi i vremenskim prilikama.

One example of a boundary condition is solar radiation.

Jedan primer graničnog uslova je solarna radijacija.

By analyzing the precise distance and angle between a location and the sun,

Analizirajući tačnu razdaljinu i ugao između neke lokacije i Sunca,

we can determine the amount of heat that area will receive.

možemo odrediti količinu toplote koja će zadesiti neku oblast.

And since we know how the sun behaves throughout the year,

S obzirom da znamo kako se Sunce ponaša tokom cele godine,

we can accurately predict its effects on temperature.

možemo precizno predvideti njegove efekte na temperaturu.

Averaged across years of data,

U proseku mnogogodišnjih podataka,

this reveals periodic patterns, including seasons.

ovo otkriva periodične šablone, uključujući i godišnja doba.

Most boundary conditions have well-defined values that change slowly, if at all.

Većina graničnih uslova ima dobro definisane vrednosti

koje se polako menjaju, ako i uopšte.

This allows researchers to reliably predict climate years into the future.

Ovo omogućava istraživačima da pouzdano predvide klimu u budućnosti.

But here’s where it gets tricky.

Nego, ovde postaje nepouzdano.

Even the slightest change in these boundary conditions

Čak i najmanja promena ovih graničnih uslova

represents a much larger shift for the chaotic weather system.

predstavlja mnogo veći preokret

za haotični sistem vremeskih prilika.

For example, Earth’s surface temperature has warmed by almost 1 degree Celsius

Na primer, temperatura Zemljine površine uvećala se za skoro jedan stepen Celzijusa

over the last 150 years.

u poslednjih 150 godina.

This might seem like a minor shift,

Ovo može da izgleda kao mala promena,

but this 1-degree change has added the energy equivalent

ali ova promena jednog stepena dodala je energiju u atmosferu

of roughly one million nuclear warheads into the atmosphere.

ekvivalentnu otprilike milionu bojnih glava.

This massive surge of energy has already led to a dramatic increase

Ovaj jak talas energije već je doveo do velikog povećanja

in the number of heatwaves, droughts, and storm surges.

broja toplotnih talasa, suša i naleta oluja.

So, is the increase in extreme weather due to random chance, or changing climate?

Da li se povećao broj ekstremnih vremenskih prilika

zbog slučajnosti ili promene klime?

The answer is that—

Odgovor je da,

while weather will always be a chaotic system—

iako će vremenske prilike uvek biti haotičan sistem,

shifts in our climate do increase the likelihood of extreme weather events.

promene klime povećavaju verovatnoću za ekstremnim vremenskim neprilikama.

Scientists are in near universal agreement that our climate is changing

Naučnici su gotovo saglasni da se klima menja

and that human activity is accelerating those changes.

i da ljudske aktivnosti ubrzavaju te promene.

But fortunately,

Ali na sreću,

we can identify what human behaviors are impacting the climate most

možemo da utvrdimo koja ljudska ponašanja najviše utiču na klimu

by tracking which boundary conditions are shifting.

prateći koji granični uslovi se menjaju.

So even though next month’s weather might always be a mystery,

Iako vremenske prilike narednog meseca uvek mogu biti misterija,

we can work together to protect the climate for centuries to come.

možemo da delujemo zajedno i zaštitimo klimu za budućnost.