Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? - R. Saravanan

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2020-08-25 ・ TED-Ed


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Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? - R. Saravanan

576,793 views ・ 2020-08-25

TED-Ed


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: κ²€ν† : DK Kim
00:06
From 2016 to 2019,
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2016λ…„λΆ€ν„° 2019λ…„ 사이에
κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ€ μ „ μ„Έκ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ 기둝적인 폭염 ν˜„μƒ,
00:09
meteorologists saw record-breaking heat waves around the globe,
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00:13
rampant wildfires in California and Australia,
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μΊ˜λ¦¬ν¬λ‹ˆμ•„μ™€ μ˜€μŠ€νŠΈλ ˆμΌλ¦¬μ•„μ—μ„œ λ°œμƒν•œ κ±·μž‘μ„ 수 μ—†λŠ” μ‚°λΆˆ,
00:16
and the longest run of category 5 tropical cyclones on record.
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그리고 μ΄ˆλŒ€ν˜• μ—΄λŒ€μ„± ν­ν’μ˜ 기둝적 μž₯κΈ° 지속 ν˜„μƒμ„ λ΄€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:21
The number of extreme weather events has been increasing for the last 40 years,
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극단적인 기상 ν˜„μƒμ˜ λ°œμƒ λΉˆλ„λŠ” μ§€λ‚œ 40λ…„κ°„ 계속 μ¦κ°€ν•΄μ˜€κ³  있으며
00:26
and current predictions suggest that trend will continue.
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μœΌλ‘œλŠ” μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ ν˜„μƒμ΄ μ•žμœΌλ‘œλ„ 계속될 κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ λ³΄μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:30
But are these natural disasters simply bad weather?
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그런데 μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μžμ—°μž¬ν•΄λŠ” κ·Έμ € λ‚˜μœ 날씨일 λΏμΌκΉŒμš”?
00:34
Or are they due to our changing climate?
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ κΈ°ν›„ 변화에 μ˜ν•œ κ²ƒμΌκΉŒμš”?
00:37
To answer this question
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이 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€λ‹΅ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” 날씨와 κΈ°μƒμ˜ 차이점을 μ΄ν•΄ν•˜κ³ 
00:38
we need to understand the differences between weather and climateβ€”
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00:42
what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.
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이λ₯Ό μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λŠ”μ§€, 예츑 결과의 μ˜λ―ΈλŠ” 무엇인지 μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:48
Meteorologists define weather as the conditions of the atmosphere
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κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ΄ μ •μ˜ν•˜λŠ” λ‚ μ”¨λž€
νŠΉμ • μ‹œκ°„κ³Ό μž₯μ†Œμ—μ„œμ˜ λŒ€κΈ° μƒνƒœλ₯Ό μ˜λ―Έν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:52
at a particular time and place.
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00:54
Currently, researchers can predict a region’s weather for the next week
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  연ꡬ원듀이 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” ν•œ μ§€μ—­μ˜ λ‹€μŒ μ£Ό λ‚ μ”¨μ˜ μ •ν™•λ„λŠ”
00:58
with roughly 80% accuracy.
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λŒ€λž΅ 80% μ •λ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:01
Climate describes a region’s average atmospheric conditions
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κΈ°ν›„λŠ” ν•œ μ§€μ—­μ˜ ν•œ 달 λ˜λŠ” κ·Έ 이상 κΈ°κ°„μ˜
평균적인 기상적 ν˜„μƒμ„ λ§ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:05
over periods of a month or more.
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01:08
Climate predictions can forecast average temperatures for decades to come,
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κΈ°ν›„λ₯Ό 톡해 ν–₯ν›„ λ‹€κ°€μ˜¬ μˆ˜μ‹­ λ…„κ°„μ˜ 평균 κΈ°μ˜¨μ€ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆμ§€λ§Œ
01:13
but they can’t tell us what specific weather events to expect.
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ꡬ체적인 날씨 상황에 λŒ€ν•œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ€ ν•  수 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:17
These two types of predictions give us such different information
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이 두 κ°€μ§€μ˜ 예츑 방식이 맀우 λ‹€λ₯Έ 정보λ₯Ό μ£ΌλŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
01:21
because they’re based on different data.
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각각의 방식이 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λŠ” μžλ£Œκ°€ μ„œλ‘œ λ‹€λ₯΄κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:24
To forecast weather,
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날씨λ₯Ό μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λ €λ©΄ κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ€ λŒ€κΈ°μ˜ κΈ°λ³Έ 쑰건을 μΈ‘μ •ν•΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:26
meteorologists need to measure the atmosphere’s initial conditions.
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01:30
These are the current levels of precipitation, air pressure, humidity,
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ κ°•μˆ˜λŸ‰, κΈ°μ••, μŠ΅λ„, 풍속, 풍ν–₯ 등이
01:35
wind speed and wind direction that determine a region’s weather.
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ν•œ μ§€μ—­μ˜ 날씨λ₯Ό κ²°μ •ν•˜λŠ” κΈ°λ³Έ μ‘°κ±΄λ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:40
Twice every day, meteorologists from over 800 stations around the globe
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κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ€ 맀일 두 λ²ˆμ”© 800κ°œκ°€ λ„˜λŠ” μ „ 세계 κ΄€μΈ‘μ†Œμ—μ„œ
01:45
release balloons into the atmosphere.
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κΈ°μƒκ΄€μΈ‘μš© 풍선을 λŒ€κΈ°μ— λ„μ›λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:47
These balloons carry instruments called radiosondes,
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이 풍선이 μ‹£κ³  λ‹€λ‹ˆλŠ” λΌλ””μ˜€ μ‘΄λ°λΌλŠ” 기계가
01:51
which measure initial conditions
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λŒ€κΈ°μ˜ 초기 μƒνƒœλ₯Ό μΈ‘μ •ν•΄μ„œ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό ꡭ제 날씨 기관에 λ³΄λƒ…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:53
and transmit their findings to international weather centers.
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01:57
Meteorologists then run the data through predictive physics models
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κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ€ 이 정보λ₯Ό μ˜ˆμƒ 물리 λͺ¨λΈμ—μ„œ μ‹€ν–‰ν•˜μ—¬
μ΅œμ’… 날씨 예츑 정보λ₯Ό λ„μΆœν•΄λƒ…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:01
that generate the final weather forecast.
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02:03
Unfortunately, there’s something stopping this global web of data
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μ•ˆνƒ€κΉκ²Œλ„ 이 세계 정보망을 톡해 μ™„λ²½ν•˜κ²Œ 날씨 μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ ν•˜λŠ” 것을 λ§‰λŠ”
02:07
from producing a perfect prediction:
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걸림돌이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:09
weather is a fundamentally chaotic system.
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λ°”λ‘œ 근본적으둜 ν˜Όλž€μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ 날씨 μ²΄κ³„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:13
This means it’s incredibly sensitive and impossible to perfectly forecast
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λ‹€μ‹œ 말해 λ‚ μ”¨λŠ” ꡉμž₯히 μ˜ˆλ―Όν•˜κ³  λͺ¨λ“  μš”μ†Œλ₯Ό μ™„μ „ν•˜κ²Œ μ•Œμ§€ λͺ»ν•˜λ©΄
02:17
without absolute knowledge of all the system’s elements.
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이λ₯Ό μ™„λ²½ν•˜κ²Œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λŠ” 일 μžμ²΄κ°€ λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” λœ»μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:21
In a period of just ten days,
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10μΌμ΄λΌλŠ” 짧은 κΈ°κ°„ λ™μ•ˆ
02:23
even incredibly small disturbances can massively impact atmospheric conditionsβ€”
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λŒ€κΈ° μƒνƒœλŠ” μ—„μ²­λ‚˜κ²Œ μž‘μ€ 변화에도 맀우 큰 영ν–₯을 받을 수 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
2μ£Ό λ’€μ˜ 날씨에 κ΄€ν•΄ 믿을 λ§Œν•œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ λ„μΆœν•΄ λ‚Ό 수 μ—†κ²Œ λ§Œλ“­λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:30
making it impossible to reliably predict weather beyond two weeks.
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02:35
Climate prediction, on the other hand, is far less turbulent.
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λ°˜λ©΄μ— κΈ°ν›„ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ€ 훨씬 덜 λ³΅μž‘ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:39
This is partly because a region’s climate is, by definition,
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뢀뢄적인 μ΄μœ λ‘œλŠ” ν•œ μ§€μ—­μ˜ κΈ°ν›„λŠ”
02:42
the average of all its weather data.
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κ·Έ 지역 λ‚ μ”¨μ˜ 평균이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:45
But also because climate forecasts ignore
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그뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ κΈ°ν›„ 예츑이
02:48
what’s currently happening in the atmosphere,
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ν˜„μž¬ λŒ€κΈ°μ— μΌμ–΄λ‚˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” 일듀을 λ¬΄μ‹œν•˜κ³ 
02:50
and focus on the range of what could happen.
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μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 일어날 일에 μ΄ˆμ μ„ 두고 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄κΈ°λ„ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:54
These parameters are known as boundary conditions,
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λ§€κ°œλ³€μˆ˜λ“€μ€ 경계쑰건이라고 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:57
and as their name suggests, they act as constraints on climate and weather.
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λͺ…칭이 말해주듯 이 λ³€μˆ˜λ“€μ€ 기후와 날씨에 μ œμ•½μœΌλ‘œ μž‘μš©ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:03
One example of a boundary condition is solar radiation.
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κ²½κ³„μ‘°κ±΄μ˜ ν•œ μ˜ˆλ‘œλŠ” νƒœμ–‘ 볡사가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:07
By analyzing the precise distance and angle between a location and the sun,
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μ–΄λ–€ μž₯μ†Œμ™€ νƒœμ–‘ μ‚¬μ΄μ˜ μ •ν™•ν•œ 거리와 각도λ₯Ό λΆ„μ„ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨
03:12
we can determine the amount of heat that area will receive.
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κ·Έ μž₯μ†Œκ°€ 받을 μ—΄μ˜ 양을 κ²°μ •ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:16
And since we know how the sun behaves throughout the year,
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일년 λ™μ•ˆ νƒœμ–‘μ΄ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν™œλ™ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ μ•Œκ³  있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
03:19
we can accurately predict its effects on temperature.
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νƒœμ–‘μ΄ κΈ°μ˜¨μ— λ―ΈμΉ˜λŠ” 영ν–₯을 μ •ν™•ν•˜κ²Œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:22
Averaged across years of data,
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μ—°κ°„ 데이터λ₯Ό μ’…ν•©ν•œ ν‰κ· κ°’μœΌλ‘œ
03:25
this reveals periodic patterns, including seasons.
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κ³„μ ˆκ³Ό 같은 주기적인 양상을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:29
Most boundary conditions have well-defined values that change slowly, if at all.
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경계쑰건 값은 λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„ 잘 μ •μ˜λ˜μ–΄ 있고 λ³€ν™”κ°€ μžˆλ”λΌλ„ 천천히 μΌμ–΄λ‚©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:34
This allows researchers to reliably predict climate years into the future.
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이둜써 κΈ°μƒν•™μžλ“€μ€ μ•žμœΌλ‘œ μˆ˜λ…„κ°„μ˜ 믿을 λ§Œν•œ 기상 예츑이 κ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:39
But here’s where it gets tricky.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ λ¬Έμ œκ°€ κΉŒλ‹€λ‘œμ›Œμ§‘λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:41
Even the slightest change in these boundary conditions
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μ•„μ£Ό μž‘μ€ 것이라도 경계쑰건 쀑에 μ–΄λ–€ λ³€ν™”κ°€ μΌμ–΄λ‚œλ‹€λŠ” 것은
03:44
represents a much larger shift for the chaotic weather system.
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ν˜Όλž€μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ 날씨 체계에 μ•„μ£Ό 큰 λ³€ν™”κ°€ μƒκΈ΄λ‹€λŠ” μ˜λ―Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:48
For example, Earth’s surface temperature has warmed by almost 1 degree Celsius
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄ μ§€λ‚œ 150λ…„κ°„ 지ꡬ ν‘œλ©΄ 기온이
03:53
over the last 150 years.
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섭씨 1λ„κ°€λŸ‰ μ˜¬λžμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:56
This might seem like a minor shift,
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μ•„μ£Ό μž‘μ€ λ³€ν™”μ²˜λŸΌ λ³΄μ΄μ§€λ§Œ
03:58
but this 1-degree change has added the energy equivalent
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이 1λ„μ˜ λ³€ν™”λŠ” λŒ€λž΅ 핡탄두 백만 κ°œκ°€
04:02
of roughly one million nuclear warheads into the atmosphere.
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λŒ€κΈ° 쀑에 λ°©μΆœλ˜λŠ” 것과 λ§žλ¨ΉλŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:06
This massive surge of energy has already led to a dramatic increase
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이 μ—λ„ˆμ§€μ˜ 폭증은 이미 μ—΄λŒ€μ•Ό, κ°€λ­„, νƒœν’κ³Ό 같은
04:11
in the number of heatwaves, droughts, and storm surges.
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μžμ—° ν˜„μƒμ˜ 극적인 μ¦κ°€λ‘œ 이어지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:15
So, is the increase in extreme weather due to random chance, or changing climate?
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ 이 극단적 날씨 λ³€ν™”μ˜ μ¦κ°€λŠ” μš°μ—°μΌκΉŒμš”?
μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™” λ•Œλ¬ΈμΌκΉŒμš”?
04:21
The answer is thatβ€”
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이에 λŒ€ν•œ 닡은
04:23
while weather will always be a chaotic systemβ€”
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λ‚ μ”¨λŠ” 늘 ν˜Όλž€μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ μ²΄κ³„λ‘œ λ‚¨λŠ” ν•œνŽΈ
04:26
shifts in our climate do increase the likelihood of extreme weather events.
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κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λŠ” 극단적인 날씨 ν˜„μƒμ˜ κ°€λŠ₯성을 λ†’μΈλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:31
Scientists are in near universal agreement that our climate is changing
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κ³Όν•™μžλ“€μ€ κΈ°ν›„λŠ” λ³€ν•˜κ³  있으며 인간이 이 λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό κ°€μ†ν™”ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 사싀에
04:36
and that human activity is accelerating those changes.
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λŒ€μ²΄λ‘œ λ™μ˜ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:40
But fortunately,
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λ‹€ν–‰μŠ€λŸ½κ²Œλ„
04:41
we can identify what human behaviors are impacting the climate most
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μΈκ°„μ˜ 행동 양식 쀑 μ–΄λ–€ 것이 기후에 κ°€μž₯ 큰 영ν–₯을 λ―ΈμΉ˜λŠ”μ§€λ₯Ό
04:46
by tracking which boundary conditions are shifting.
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κ²½κ³„μš”μΈ 쀑 μ–΄λ–€ 것이 λ³€ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€ μΆ”μ ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨ μ•Œμ•„λ³Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:49
So even though next month’s weather might always be a mystery,
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λ‹€μŒ λ‹¬μ˜ λ‚ μ”¨λŠ” μ–Έμ œλ‚˜ 수수께끼둜 λ‚¨κ² μ§€λ§Œ
04:53
we can work together to protect the climate for centuries to come.
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λͺ¨λ‘ ν•¨κ»˜ λ…Έλ ₯ν•˜λ©΄ λ‹€κ°€μ˜¬ 수 μ„ΈκΈ°μ˜ κΈ°ν›„λ₯Ό λ³΄ν˜Έν•  수 μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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