Joseph Nye on global power shifts

276,956 views ・ 2010-10-27

TED


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譯者: Eric Chu 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai
00:15
I'm going to talk to you
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我想和你們談談
00:17
about power in this 21st century.
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這21世紀裡的權力。
00:19
And basically, what I'd like to tell you
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而基本上我想告訴你們的,
00:22
is that power is changing,
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就是權力正在改變。
00:25
and there are two types of changes
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有兩種改變
00:27
I want to discuss.
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是我想要探討的。
00:29
One is power transition,
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一是權力的轉移,
00:32
which is change of power amongst states.
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也就是國際中不同國家擁有的權力的改變。
00:35
And there the simple version of the message
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這種改變簡單說起來
00:38
is it's moving from West to East.
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就是權力正由西方移向東方。
00:41
The other is power diffusion,
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另一個則是權力的擴散
00:44
the way power is moving
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也就是權力移動的方式
00:46
from all states West or East
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從所有國家,西方或東方
00:48
to non-state actors.
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到非國家或非政府個體。
00:51
Those two things
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這兩種現象
00:53
are the huge shifts of power
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就是這世紀裡重要的
00:55
in our century.
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權力轉移。
00:57
And I want to tell you about them each separately
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而我想和你們分別聊聊這兩種現象
01:00
and then how they interact
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以及它們如何的互動
01:02
and why, in the end, there may be some good news.
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和為什麽,在最後,可能還是有好消息。
01:06
When we talk about power transition,
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在討論權力的轉移的時候,
01:09
we often talk about the rise of Asia.
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我們常常講到亞洲的崛起。
01:13
It really should be called
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但它真的應該要被稱為
01:15
the recovery or return of Asia.
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亞洲的回復,或重返國際舞臺。
01:17
If we looked at the world
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如果我們來看
01:19
in 1800,
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1800年的世界,
01:21
you'd find that more than half of the world's people
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你會發覺世界上過半的人口
01:24
lived in Asia
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住在亞洲,
01:26
and they made more than half the world's product.
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這過半的人口也生產世界上超過一半的產品。
01:29
Now fast forward to 1900:
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現在快轉到1900年,
01:32
half the world's people -- more than half -- still live in Asia,
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世界上一半的人口--超過一半的人仍然住在亞洲,
01:35
but they're now making
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但他們只有生產了
01:37
only a fifth of the world's product.
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世界上五分之一的產品。
01:39
What happened? The Industrial Revolution,
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有什麼事件發生了嗎? 工業革命。
01:42
which meant that all of a sudden,
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這表示一夕之間
01:44
Europe and America
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歐洲和美洲
01:46
became the dominant center of the world.
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成為了世界上的統治中心。
01:49
What we're going to see in the 21st century
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我們在二十一世紀會看到的
01:52
is Asia gradually returning
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是亞洲逐步地再擁有
01:55
to being more than half of the world's population
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世界過半的人口
01:58
and more than half of the world's product.
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和生產超過世界一半的產品。
02:02
That's important and it's an important shift.
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那是重要的一點,也是很重要的轉變。
02:05
But let me tell you a little bit about
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但讓我來告訴你們一些
02:07
the other shift that I'm talking about,
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我一開始談到的另一個轉變,
02:09
which is power diffusion.
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權力的擴散。
02:11
To understand power diffusion
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要了解權力的擴散,
02:14
put this in your mind:
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你們必須先設想:
02:16
computing and communications costs
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計算和通信的費用
02:19
have fallen a thousandfold
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跟1970年比起來
02:22
between 1970
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二十一世紀初的價格
02:24
and the beginning of this century.
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降低了整整一千倍。
02:26
Now that's a big abstract number.
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這聽起來像是個大而抽象的數字,
02:28
But to make it more real,
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但要讓這聽起來比較真實一點,
02:30
if the price of an automobile
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我們來假想如果汽車的價格
02:32
had fallen as rapidly
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也是跌了一千倍,
02:34
as the price of computing power,
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就像電腦計算能力的價格一樣,
02:36
you could buy a car today
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你今天可以去買一輛車,
02:38
for five dollars.
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而那只會花上你五塊美金。
02:40
Now when the price of any technology
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當任何科技的價格
02:42
declines that dramatically,
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如此戲劇性的降低,
02:45
the barriers to entry go down.
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入門的門檻也會跟著降低,
02:48
Anybody can play in the game.
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任何人都可以參與競爭。
02:50
So in 1970,
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在1970年,
02:52
if you wanted to communicate
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如果你想要啟動
02:54
from Oxford to Johannesburg
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從牛津到約翰尼斯堡
02:56
to New Delhi
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到新德里
02:58
to Brasilia
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到巴西利亞
03:00
and anywhere simultaneously,
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和任何地方的同步通訊,
03:03
you could do it.
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你是做得到的,
03:05
The technology was there.
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科技是有的。
03:07
But to be able to do it,
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但要真的去做,
03:09
you had to be very rich --
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你必須要非常的富有--
03:11
a government, a multinational corporation,
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像是政府、多國企業、
03:14
maybe the Catholic Church --
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或許天主教廷等才有可能
03:17
but you had to be pretty wealthy.
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總之你必須要非常有錢。
03:19
Now, anybody has that capacity,
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但現在,任何人都做得到,
03:22
which previously was restricted by price
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之前因為價格的限制
03:25
just to a few actors.
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使得能參與的個體極少,
03:28
If they have the price of entry into an Internet cafe --
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現在任何人付得起使用網咖的費用--
03:31
the last time I looked, it was something like a pound an hour --
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我上次看得時候一小時大概才一英鎊吧--
03:34
and if you have Skype, it's free.
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而且如果你有用Skype的話還免費。
03:37
So capabilities
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所以在以前
03:39
that were once restricted
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僅限於少數人特權
03:41
are now available to everyone.
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現在已經到了普及大眾的程度。
03:43
And what that means
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而這表示的
03:45
is not that the age of the State is over.
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並不是美國的時代已經結束了。
03:49
The State still matters.
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美國仍然很重要。
03:51
But the stage is crowded.
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但是國際舞台上變得更擁擠,
03:53
The State's not alone. There are many, many actors.
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美國並不孤單。還有很多很多的參與者。
03:56
Some of that's good:
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有些是好的:
03:58
Oxfam,
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像,樂施會,
04:00
a great non-governmental actor.
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這是一個很棒的非政府組織。
04:02
Some of it's bad:
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有些是不好的:
04:04
Al Qaeda, another non-governmental actor.
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蓋達組織,另一個非政府組織。
04:07
But think of what it does
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但想想這些
04:09
to how we think in traditional terms and concepts.
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對我們傳統的觀念做了哪些改變。
04:12
We think in terms of war
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我們用戰爭
04:14
and interstate war.
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或國與國之間的戰爭的角度來思考。
04:16
And you can think back to 1941
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而你們可以回想一下,在1941年
04:19
when the government of Japan
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日本政府
04:21
attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.
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攻擊了美國珍珠港。
04:24
It's worth noticing
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值得一提的是
04:26
that a non-state actor
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一個非政府的組織
04:28
attacking the United States in 2001
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在2001年對美國的攻擊
04:31
killed more Americans
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比1941年日本政府
04:33
than the government of Japan did in 1941.
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殺的美國人還要多。
04:36
You might think of that
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你可以想成
04:38
as the privatization of war.
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這是戰爭的私有化。
04:40
So we're seeing a great change
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所以我們正看到了很大的改變
04:43
in terms of diffusion of power.
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發生在權力擴散這方面。
04:46
Now the problem is
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現在問題是
04:49
that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways.
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我們並沒有用很創新的想法來考量這個現象。
04:52
So let me step back
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讓我們來重新檢視,
04:54
and ask: what's power?
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來問問: 權力是什麼?
04:56
Power is simple the ability
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權力,最簡單來說就是
04:58
to affect others
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“影響別人
05:00
to get the outcomes you want,
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去得到你想要的結果的能力。”
05:02
and you can do it in three ways.
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而這可以用三種方式達成:
05:04
You can do it with threats
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你可以使用威脅,
05:06
of coercion, "sticks,"
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強勢的逼迫--棍子;
05:08
you can do it with payments,
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你也可以使用金錢--
05:10
"carrots,"
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紅蘿蔔;
05:12
or you can do it by getting others
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或你可以讓別人
05:14
to want what you want.
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去想要你所想要的結果。
05:16
And that ability to get others to want what you want,
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而用這種使別人想要你所想要的能力
05:19
to get the outcomes you want
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來達到你想要的結果,
05:21
without coercion or payment,
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沒有威脅或金錢利誘
05:23
is what I call soft power.
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我稱之為軟實力。
05:26
And that soft power has been much neglected
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而軟實力常常被忽略
05:29
and much misunderstood,
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甚至誤解。
05:31
and yet it's tremendously important.
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但其實它扮演了極度重要的角色。
05:34
Indeed, if you can learn
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沒錯,如果你能學習
05:37
to use more soft power,
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去使用更多的軟實力,
05:39
you can save a lot
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你可以省下很多的
05:41
on carrots and sticks.
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紅蘿蔔和棍子。
05:43
Traditionally, the way people thought about power
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傳統來說,大多數人想到權力的時候,
05:46
was primarily in terms of military power.
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主要都是以武力的角度來想。
05:50
For example, the great Oxford historian
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舉個例子:偉大的牛津史學家
05:52
who taught here at this university, A.J.P. Taylor,
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A.J.P.泰勒曾在這間大學教書。
05:55
defined a great power
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他定義一個強權
05:58
as a country able to prevail in war.
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為一個在戰爭裡能夠得勝的國家。
06:02
But we need a new narrative
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但我們需要一個新的闡述方法
06:04
if we're to understand power in the 21st century.
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來幫助我們了解二十一世紀裡的權力。
06:06
It's not just prevailing at war,
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這不只是在戰爭中得勝,
06:08
though war still persists.
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雖然戰爭持續在發生,
06:11
It's not whose army wins;
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這不是誰的軍隊可以贏,
06:13
it's also whose story wins.
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而也是誰的故事可以贏。
06:16
And we have to think much more in terms of narratives
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而我們必須要多多以故事的角度來想,
06:19
and whose narrative is going to be effective.
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看看誰的故事會是最有效的。
06:23
Now let me go back
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現在讓我回到
06:25
to the question
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有關於
06:27
of power transition
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權力轉移於
06:29
between states
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不同國家之間的問題
06:31
and what's happening there.
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和現在的情況究竟是如何。
06:33
the narratives that we use now
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我們現在所使用的闡述方法,
06:35
tend to be the rise and fall
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常常是強權的
06:37
of the great powers.
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崛起和殞落。
06:39
And the current narrative is all about
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而當前我們看到的全部都是
06:41
the rise of China
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中國的崛起
06:43
and the decline of the United States.
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和美國的衰退。
06:46
Indeed, with the 2008 financial crisis,
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沒錯,2008年的財務危機,
06:48
many people said this was
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很多人說這是
06:50
the beginning of the end of American power.
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美國強權結束的開始。
06:52
The tectonic plates
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世界政治的
06:54
of world politics were shifting.
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結構板塊正在轉移。
06:57
And president Medvedev of Russia, for example,
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而舉個例子來說:俄羅斯的總統梅德維傑夫
06:59
pronounced in 2008
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在2008年對外宣稱
07:01
this was the beginning of the end
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這是美國強權
07:03
of United States power.
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結束的開始。
07:05
But in fact,
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但事實上,
07:07
this metaphor of decline
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這種所謂衰退的象徵
07:09
is often very misleading.
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是非常誤導人的。
07:11
If you look at history, in recent history,
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如果你看看歷史,最近的歷史,
07:14
you'll see the cycles of belief
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你會看到每隔十到十五年,
07:16
in American decline
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就會出現對於
07:18
come and go every 10 or 15 years or so.
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美國衰退的看法。
07:22
In 1958,
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在1958年,
07:24
after the Soviets put up Sputnik,
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蘇聯把史普尼克1號送上太空之後,
07:26
it was "That's the end of America."
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很多人說「那是美國的末日。」
07:28
In 1973, with the oil embargo
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在1973年的石油禁運
07:30
and the closing of the gold window,
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以及美元和黃金互相轉換的結束,
07:33
that was the end of America.
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很多人也說那是美國的末日。
07:35
In the 1980s,
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在1980年代,
07:37
as America went through a transition in the Reagan period,
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當美國經歷了雷根總統任內的經濟轉換--
07:39
between the rust belt economy of the midwest
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從美國中西部的銹帶經濟
07:42
to the Silicon Valley economy of California,
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到加州的矽谷經濟--
07:45
that was the end of America.
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很多人也說那是美國的末日。
07:48
But in fact, what we've seen
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但事實上,我們所看到的
07:50
is none of those were true.
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是沒有任何一個關於美國末日的說法是事實。
07:53
Indeed, people were over-enthusiastic
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沒錯,人們在2000年代早期
07:56
in the early 2000s,
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是過度樂觀的,
07:58
thinking America could do anything,
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他們相信美國什麼都做得到,
08:00
which led us into some disastrous
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進而導致一些災難性的
08:02
foreign policy adventures,
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外交政策,
08:04
and now we're back to decline again.
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現在我們又回到了美國正在衰退這個論點。
08:06
The moral of this story
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這個故事的寓意指出
08:08
is all these narratives about rise and fall and decline
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所有這些有關崛起衰退再崛起的看法,
08:11
tell us a lot more about psychology
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告訴我們很多關於心理層面的想法,
08:14
than they do about reality.
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而不真正是對現實的描述。
08:16
If we try to focus on the reality,
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如果我們試著專注於現實,
08:19
then what we need to focus on
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那我們真的要關心的
08:21
is what's really happening
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是在中國和美國之間
08:23
in terms of China and the United States.
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真的在發生的事情。
08:27
Goldman Sachs has projected
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高盛集團預測
08:29
that China, the Chinese economy,
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中國和中國的經濟
08:32
will surpass that of the U.S.
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會在2027年
08:35
by 2027.
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超越美國。
08:37
So we've got, what,
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所以我們還有,
08:39
17 more years to go or so
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大約十七多年
08:41
before China's bigger.
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才會等到中國比美國壯大。
08:43
Now someday,
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有一天,
08:45
with a billion point three people getting richer,
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當十三億人同時的富有起來
08:47
they are going to be bigger than the United States.
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他們會比美國還要強大。
08:50
But be very careful about these projections
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但我們應該謹慎來看,
08:52
such as the Goldman Sachs projection
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像是由高盛集團所提出的這些預測。
08:54
as though that gives you an accurate picture
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這些並不能告訴你們
08:57
of power transition in this century.
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這個世紀裡權力會如何真正的轉移。
09:00
Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple.
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讓我提出三個為什麼這些預測太簡易的原因:
09:03
First of all, it's a linear projection.
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第一,這些預測都是直線形的預測。
09:06
You know, everything says,
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你們知道,所有的資料顯示
09:08
here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S.,
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這是中國的成長率,而那是美國的成長率
09:10
here it goes -- straight line.
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所以我們來就用這些成長率來做線形的預測。
09:12
History is not linear.
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歷史不是直線形的,
09:14
There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way.
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歷史的長路上中間常常會有凸塊甚至有意外發生。
09:17
The second thing is
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第二點,
09:19
that the Chinese economy
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當中國的經濟
09:21
passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030,
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在,我們假設2030年好了,超越美國的經濟,
09:24
which it may it,
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這有可能會發生,
09:26
that will be a measure of total economic size,
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那會是一個整個經濟體的測量,
09:29
but not of per capita income --
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但不是人均收入的測量--
09:31
won't tell you about the composition of the economy.
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也就是那並不會顯示整個經濟體的結構。
09:34
China still has large areas
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中國仍然有大部分的區域
09:36
of underdevelopment
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處於尚未開發的狀態,
09:38
and per capita income is a better measure
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而人均收入是一個比較好的測量方式,
09:40
of the sophistication of the economy.
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尤其對於中國如此複雜的經濟體。
09:42
And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans
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而中國人在人均收入
09:45
until somewhere in the latter part,
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在這個世紀後期,2050年以後
09:47
after 2050, of this century.
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都不會追上或超越美國人的人均收入。
09:50
The other point that's worth noticing
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第三點值得注意的
09:53
is how one-dimensional
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是這些預測
09:55
this projection is.
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都是只考慮單方面的。
09:57
You know, it looks at economic power
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你們知道,當測量經濟實力的時候
09:59
measured by GDP.
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採用的是國內生產總值,
10:01
Doesn't tell you much about military power,
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這沒辦法告訴你多少關於軍事實力,
10:04
doesn't tell you very much about soft power.
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沒辦法告訴你多少關於軟實力,
10:06
It's all very one-dimensional.
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這完全是一維化的。
10:08
And also, when we think about the rise of Asia,
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同時,當我們想到亞洲崛起,
10:11
or return of Asia
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或我早些對這個現象的稱呼
10:13
as I called it a little bit earlier,
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亞洲重返國際舞臺的時候,
10:15
it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing.
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我們應該要記得亞洲不是一個個體.
10:18
If you're sitting in Japan,
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如果你坐在日本、
10:21
or in New Delhi,
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新德里、
10:23
or in Hanoi,
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或是河內,
10:25
your view of the rise of China
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那你對中國崛起的看法
10:28
is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing.
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將會和你坐在北京的看法有些不同。
10:31
Indeed, one of the advantages
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沒錯,美國
10:33
that the Americans will have
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在亞洲的權力分配裡
10:35
in terms of power in Asia
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將會有的優勢之一,
10:37
is all those countries
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是很多亞洲國家
10:39
want an American insurance policy
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會想要有美國作靠山
10:41
against the rise of China.
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來抗衡中國的崛起。
10:43
It's as though Mexico and Canada
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這就像是如果墨西哥和加拿大
10:46
were hostile neighbors to the United States,
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是美國危險的鄰居--
10:48
which they're not.
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他們當然不是。
10:50
So these simple projections
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所以這些例如高盛
10:52
of the Goldman Sachs type
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所做的簡單的預測,
10:54
are not telling us what we need to know
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並沒有告訴我們對於
10:56
about power transition.
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權力轉移所需要知道的東西。
10:57
But you might ask, well so what in any case?
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但你可能會問,好吧,但是如果中國真的崛起了那又怎樣?
11:00
Why does it matter? Who cares?
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這很重要嗎?為什麼我們應該去關心這件事?
11:02
Is this just a game
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這是不是一場
11:04
that diplomats and academics play?
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外交官和學術家們在玩的遊戲?
11:06
The answer is it matters quite a lot.
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答案是,這的確很重要。
11:09
Because, if you believe in decline
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因為,如果你相信衰退,
11:11
and you get the answers wrong on this,
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而你對於衰退的疑問的回答是不正確的
11:14
the facts, not the myths,
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事實,甚至不是神話,
11:16
you may have policies which are very dangerous.
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你可能會採取一些很危險的政策。
11:19
Let me give you an example from history.
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讓我從歷史來給你們舉個例子,
11:22
The Peloponnesian War
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伯羅奔尼撒戰爭
11:24
was the great conflict
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是那場
11:26
in which the Greek city state system
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希臘式城邦系統
11:28
tore itself apart
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被自己摧毀的大衝突,
11:31
two and a half millennia ago.
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這發生在大約兩千五百年前。
11:34
What caused it?
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什麼導致它的發生?
11:36
Thucydides, the great historian of the the Peloponnesian War,
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修昔底德,紀錄伯羅奔尼撒戰爭的偉大史學家,
11:39
said it was the rise in the power of Athens
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說是雅典為首的同盟的實力盛興
11:42
and the fear it created in Sparta.
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進而對斯巴達帶來恐懼而導致的。
11:45
Notice both halves of that explanation.
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注意這兩半的解釋,
11:48
Many people argue
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很多人會說
11:50
that the 21st century
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二十一世紀
11:52
is going to repeat the 20th century,
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將會重覆二十世紀:
11:54
in which World War One,
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像第一次世界大戰是
11:57
the great conflagration
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歐洲各國政治系統
11:59
in which the European state system
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摧毀自己
12:01
tore itself apart
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和摧毀歐洲在世界中心
12:03
and destroyed its centrality in the world,
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的導火綫。
12:05
that that was caused by
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而原因是由於
12:07
the rise in the power of Germany
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德國實力的崛起
12:09
and the fear it created in Britain.
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和它在英國造成的恐懼導致的。
12:12
So there are people who are telling us
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所以現在我們就聽到
12:14
this is going to be reproduced today,
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類似的歷史將會重演,
12:16
that what we're going to see
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而我們將會看到
12:18
is the same thing now in this century.
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同樣的事情發生在這個世紀。
12:21
No, I think that's wrong.
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不,我認為這是錯的。
12:23
It's bad history.
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這是拙劣的歷史。
12:25
For one thing, Germany had surpassed Britain
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我們必須知道,德國
12:27
in industrial strength by 1900.
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在1900年就已經在工業實力上超越了英國,
12:29
And as I said earlier,
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而我早些已經提到了,
12:31
China has not passed the United States.
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中國還沒有超越美國。
12:34
But also, if you have this belief
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但是,如果你相信中國已經超越美國,
12:36
and it creates a sense of fear,
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而那產生了一種恐懼感,
12:39
it leads to overreaction.
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這就會導致過度反應。
12:41
And the greatest danger we have
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而我們當前
12:43
of managing this power transition
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在管理這個權力朝東方轉移
12:46
of the shift toward the East is fear.
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最大的危險就是恐懼。
12:49
To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt
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我來改述富蘭克林‧羅斯福
12:51
from a different context,
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在另一個場合所講的,
12:53
the greatest thing we have to fear is fear itself.
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我們最大的恐懼,就是恐懼本身。
12:56
We don't have to fear the rise of China
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我們不需要害怕中國的崛起,
12:59
or the return of Asia.
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或是亞洲重返國際舞臺,
13:01
And if we have policies
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而如果我們有
13:03
in which we take it
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把歷史放入考量
13:05
in that larger historical perspective,
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的政策,
13:07
we're going to be able
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我們將可以
13:09
to manage this process.
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有效度過這個過程。
13:11
Let me say a word now
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現在讓我來談談
13:13
about the distribution of power
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權力的分配
13:15
and how it relates to power diffusion
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以及它和權力的擴散的關係,
13:18
and then pull these two types together.
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然後在把這兩者連結在一起。
13:20
If you ask how is power distributed in the world today,
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如果你問說今天全球的權力是如何分配的?
13:23
it's distributed much like
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答案是
13:26
a three-dimensional chess game.
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那就像一場立體3D的三層西洋棋賽:
13:29
Top board:
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最上一個棋盤:
13:31
military power among states.
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不同國家的軍事實力。
13:33
The United States is the only superpower,
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美國是唯一的強權,
13:36
and it's likely to remain that way
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而這很有可能在
13:38
for two or three decades.
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未來二三十年保持如此,
13:40
China's not going to replace the U.S. on this military board.
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中國在這個層面不會取代美國。
13:43
Middle board of this three-dimensional chess game:
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中間的棋盤:
13:46
economic power among states.
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不同國家的經濟實力,
13:48
Power is multi-polar.
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實力是多極化的,
13:51
There are balancers --
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這有很多的平衡者:
13:53
the U.S., Europe,
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美國、歐洲、
13:55
China, Japan
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中國、日本
13:57
can balance each other.
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會平衡彼此。
13:59
The bottom board of this three-dimensional,
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最下層的棋盤:
14:02
the board of transnational relations,
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國家之間的關係,
14:04
things that cross borders outside the control of governments,
347
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外於政府控制而跨國界的東西,
14:08
things like climate change, drug trade,
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像是氣候變遷、毒品交易、
14:11
financial flows,
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財務流、
14:13
pandemics,
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全球流行病等,
14:15
all these things that cross borders
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所有這些跨越國界
14:17
outside the control of governments,
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而外於政府控制的東西,
14:19
there nobody's in charge.
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沒有人是真正的領頭。
14:21
It makes no sense to call this unipolar
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要稱之為單極化
14:23
or multi-polar.
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或多極化並不正確。
14:25
Power is chaotically distributed.
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權力很混亂的分散,
14:27
And the only way you can solve these problems --
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而唯一能解決這些問題的方法
14:29
and this is where many greatest challenges
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而這也是很多這世紀
14:31
are coming in this century --
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最大的挑戰
14:33
is through cooperation,
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就是合作,
14:35
through working together,
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同心協力的來解決。
14:37
which means that soft power becomes more important,
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這也表示軟實力越來越重要。
14:40
that ability to organize networks
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軟實力能夠組織、
14:42
to deal with these kinds of problems
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解決這些問題
14:44
and to be able to get cooperation.
365
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和組織合作的連結。
14:47
Another way of putting it
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另一種描述這的方式,
14:49
is that as we think of power in the 21st century,
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就是當我們思考二十一世紀裡的權力,
14:52
we want to get away from the idea
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我們必須摒棄
14:54
that power's always zero sum --
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權力是零和遊戲這個觀念--
14:56
my gain is your loss and vice versa.
370
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我的增是你的減。
14:59
Power can also be positive sum,
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權力的總和可以是正數,
15:02
where your gain can be my gain.
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也就是你的增加也可以是我的增加。
15:05
If China develops greater energy security
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如果中國開發了更多的能源保證
15:08
and greater capacity
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和更多的能力
15:10
to deal with its problems of carbon emissions,
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來處理它境內的碳排放的問題,
15:12
that's good for us
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那對我們有益、
15:14
as well as good for China
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對中國有益、
15:16
as well as good for everybody else.
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也對所有其他人有益。
15:18
So empowering China
379
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所以激勵中國
15:20
to deal with its own problems of carbon
380
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來處理它的碳排放問題
15:23
is good for everybody,
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對所有人都有益,
15:26
and it's not a zero sum, I win, you lose.
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而這不會是權力加總起來是零,
15:29
It's one in which we can all gain.
383
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而是所有人都從中獲益。
15:31
So as we think about power
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所以當我們想到
15:33
in this century,
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這個世紀裡的權力,
15:35
we want to get away from this view
386
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我們必須遠離
15:37
that it's all I win, you lose.
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我嬴你輸這種看法。
15:40
Now I don't mean to be Pollyannaish about this.
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我無意做一個盲目而樂觀的人,
15:43
Wars persist. Power persists.
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戰爭仍然在發生,權力仍然重要,
15:45
Military power is important.
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軍事實力很重要,
15:47
Keeping balances is important.
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保持平衡很重要,
15:49
All this still persists.
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這些所有的仍然持續著,
15:51
Hard power is there,
393
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硬實力還是存在,
15:53
and it will remain.
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而且還會繼續存留。
15:55
But unless you learn how to mix
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但除非你學著將
15:57
hard power with soft power
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硬實力和軟實力
15:59
into strategies that I call smart power,
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混合成所謂我稱呼的巧實力,
16:02
you're not going to deal with the new kinds of problems
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你將無法處理我們正在面對
16:04
that we're facing.
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的新的問題。
16:07
So the key question that we need to think about as we look at this
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所以我們現在最需要思考的關鍵問題,
16:10
is how do we work together
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就是我們如何可以同心協力合作
16:12
to produce global public goods,
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來產生對於全球都有好處
16:15
things from which all of us can benefit?
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使得每個人都可以獲益?
16:18
How do we define our national interests
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我們如何定義我們的國家利益,
16:20
so that it's not just zero sum,
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使得權力的總和不會是零,
16:22
but positive sum.
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而是大於零。
16:24
In that sense, if we define our interests,
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如果我們能使用這種思維來定義國家利益,
16:26
for example, for the United States
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舉個例子:對美國來說
16:28
the way Britain defined its interests in the 19th century,
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英國在十九世紀定義國家利益的方法,
16:31
keeping an open trading system,
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是保持開放的貿易系統、
16:34
keeping a monetary stability, keeping freedom of the seas --
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保持貨幣穩定、保持航海的自由--
16:37
those were good for Britain,
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這些對英國有益,
16:39
they were good for others as well.
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也對其他國家有益。
16:41
And in the 21st century, you have to do an analog to that.
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而在二十一世紀裡,你必須要做出類似的舉動。
16:44
How do we produce global public goods,
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我們如何產生全球公共財,
16:47
which are good for us,
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那不只對我們有益
16:49
but good for everyone at the same time?
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也在同時讓所有人獲益,
16:51
And that's going to be the good news dimension
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而那就是屬於我們在思考
16:53
of what we need to think about
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二十一世紀裡的權力
16:55
as we think of power in the 21st century.
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的好消息的方面
16:58
There are ways to define our interests
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在定義國家利益的時候,
17:01
in which, while protecting ourselves with hard power,
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除了使用硬實力來保護自己,
17:04
we can organize with others in networks
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我們還能組織我們和其他人
17:07
to produce, not only public goods,
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來生產,不只有公共財
17:10
but ways that will enhance our soft power.
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還有能夠提升我們軟實力的方法。
17:13
So if one looks at the statements
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所以如果有人來檢驗
17:16
that have been made about this,
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官方對於此的發言,
17:18
I am impressed that when Hillary Clinton
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希拉蕊‧柯林頓在描述
17:20
described the foreign policy
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歐巴馬政府的外交政策
17:22
of the Obama administration,
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的發言給我很深刻的印象:
17:24
she said that the foreign policy of the Obama administration
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她說歐巴馬政府的外交政策
17:27
was going to be smart power,
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將會以巧實力為中心,
17:30
as she put it, "using all the tools
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她說:「使用我們外交政策
17:32
in our foreign policy tool box."
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工具箱裡所有的工具。」
17:36
And if we're going to deal
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而如果我們要面對
17:38
with these two great power shifts that I've described,
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我所提到的重大權力轉移:
17:41
the power shift represented by transition among states,
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由轉移在不同國家之間所代表的,
17:44
the power shift represented
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和由擴散遠離於政府
17:46
by diffusion of power away from all states,
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所代表的權力轉移,
17:49
we're going to have to develop a new narrative of power
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我們將會有一個對於權力的新的闡述方法。
17:52
in which we combine hard and soft power
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結合硬和軟實力
17:55
into strategies of smart power.
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來創造聰明實力的策略,
17:58
And that's the good news I have. We can do that.
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這就是我的好消息。我們真的做得到。
18:01
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝你們
18:03
(Applause)
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(掌聲)

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