Joseph Nye on global power shifts

277,740 views ・ 2010-10-27

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
I'm going to talk to you
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about power in this 21st century.
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And basically, what I'd like to tell you
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is that power is changing,
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and there are two types of changes
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I want to discuss.
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One is power transition,
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which is change of power amongst states.
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And there the simple version of the message
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is it's moving from West to East.
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The other is power diffusion,
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the way power is moving
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from all states West or East
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to non-state actors.
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Those two things
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are the huge shifts of power
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in our century.
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And I want to tell you about them each separately
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and then how they interact
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and why, in the end, there may be some good news.
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When we talk about power transition,
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we often talk about the rise of Asia.
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It really should be called
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the recovery or return of Asia.
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If we looked at the world
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in 1800,
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you'd find that more than half of the world's people
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lived in Asia
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and they made more than half the world's product.
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Now fast forward to 1900:
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half the world's people -- more than half -- still live in Asia,
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but they're now making
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only a fifth of the world's product.
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What happened? The Industrial Revolution,
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which meant that all of a sudden,
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Europe and America
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became the dominant center of the world.
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What we're going to see in the 21st century
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is Asia gradually returning
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to being more than half of the world's population
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and more than half of the world's product.
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That's important and it's an important shift.
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But let me tell you a little bit about
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the other shift that I'm talking about,
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which is power diffusion.
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To understand power diffusion
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put this in your mind:
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computing and communications costs
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have fallen a thousandfold
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between 1970
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and the beginning of this century.
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Now that's a big abstract number.
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But to make it more real,
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if the price of an automobile
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had fallen as rapidly
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as the price of computing power,
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you could buy a car today
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for five dollars.
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Now when the price of any technology
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declines that dramatically,
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the barriers to entry go down.
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Anybody can play in the game.
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So in 1970,
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if you wanted to communicate
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from Oxford to Johannesburg
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to New Delhi
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to Brasilia
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and anywhere simultaneously,
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you could do it.
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The technology was there.
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But to be able to do it,
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you had to be very rich --
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a government, a multinational corporation,
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maybe the Catholic Church --
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but you had to be pretty wealthy.
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Now, anybody has that capacity,
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which previously was restricted by price
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just to a few actors.
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If they have the price of entry into an Internet cafe --
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the last time I looked, it was something like a pound an hour --
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and if you have Skype, it's free.
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So capabilities
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that were once restricted
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are now available to everyone.
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And what that means
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is not that the age of the State is over.
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The State still matters.
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But the stage is crowded.
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The State's not alone. There are many, many actors.
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Some of that's good:
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Oxfam,
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a great non-governmental actor.
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Some of it's bad:
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Al Qaeda, another non-governmental actor.
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But think of what it does
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to how we think in traditional terms and concepts.
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We think in terms of war
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and interstate war.
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And you can think back to 1941
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when the government of Japan
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attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.
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It's worth noticing
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that a non-state actor
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attacking the United States in 2001
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killed more Americans
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than the government of Japan did in 1941.
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You might think of that
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as the privatization of war.
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So we're seeing a great change
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in terms of diffusion of power.
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Now the problem is
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that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways.
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So let me step back
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and ask: what's power?
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Power is simple the ability
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to affect others
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to get the outcomes you want,
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and you can do it in three ways.
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You can do it with threats
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of coercion, "sticks,"
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you can do it with payments,
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"carrots,"
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or you can do it by getting others
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to want what you want.
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And that ability to get others to want what you want,
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to get the outcomes you want
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without coercion or payment,
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is what I call soft power.
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And that soft power has been much neglected
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and much misunderstood,
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and yet it's tremendously important.
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Indeed, if you can learn
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to use more soft power,
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you can save a lot
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on carrots and sticks.
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Traditionally, the way people thought about power
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was primarily in terms of military power.
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For example, the great Oxford historian
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who taught here at this university, A.J.P. Taylor,
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defined a great power
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as a country able to prevail in war.
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But we need a new narrative
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if we're to understand power in the 21st century.
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It's not just prevailing at war,
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though war still persists.
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It's not whose army wins;
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it's also whose story wins.
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And we have to think much more in terms of narratives
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and whose narrative is going to be effective.
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Now let me go back
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to the question
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of power transition
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between states
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and what's happening there.
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the narratives that we use now
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tend to be the rise and fall
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of the great powers.
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And the current narrative is all about
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the rise of China
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and the decline of the United States.
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Indeed, with the 2008 financial crisis,
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many people said this was
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the beginning of the end of American power.
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The tectonic plates
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of world politics were shifting.
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And president Medvedev of Russia, for example,
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pronounced in 2008
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this was the beginning of the end
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of United States power.
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But in fact,
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this metaphor of decline
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is often very misleading.
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If you look at history, in recent history,
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you'll see the cycles of belief
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in American decline
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come and go every 10 or 15 years or so.
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In 1958,
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after the Soviets put up Sputnik,
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it was "That's the end of America."
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In 1973, with the oil embargo
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and the closing of the gold window,
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that was the end of America.
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In the 1980s,
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as America went through a transition in the Reagan period,
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between the rust belt economy of the midwest
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to the Silicon Valley economy of California,
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that was the end of America.
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But in fact, what we've seen
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is none of those were true.
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Indeed, people were over-enthusiastic
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in the early 2000s,
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thinking America could do anything,
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which led us into some disastrous
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foreign policy adventures,
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and now we're back to decline again.
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The moral of this story
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is all these narratives about rise and fall and decline
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tell us a lot more about psychology
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than they do about reality.
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If we try to focus on the reality,
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then what we need to focus on
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is what's really happening
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in terms of China and the United States.
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Goldman Sachs has projected
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that China, the Chinese economy,
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will surpass that of the U.S.
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by 2027.
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So we've got, what,
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17 more years to go or so
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before China's bigger.
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Now someday,
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with a billion point three people getting richer,
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they are going to be bigger than the United States.
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But be very careful about these projections
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such as the Goldman Sachs projection
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as though that gives you an accurate picture
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of power transition in this century.
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Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple.
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First of all, it's a linear projection.
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You know, everything says,
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here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S.,
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here it goes -- straight line.
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History is not linear.
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There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way.
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The second thing is
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that the Chinese economy
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passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030,
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which it may it,
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that will be a measure of total economic size,
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but not of per capita income --
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won't tell you about the composition of the economy.
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China still has large areas
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of underdevelopment
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and per capita income is a better measure
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of the sophistication of the economy.
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And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans
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until somewhere in the latter part,
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after 2050, of this century.
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The other point that's worth noticing
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is how one-dimensional
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this projection is.
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You know, it looks at economic power
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measured by GDP.
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Doesn't tell you much about military power,
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doesn't tell you very much about soft power.
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It's all very one-dimensional.
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And also, when we think about the rise of Asia,
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or return of Asia
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as I called it a little bit earlier,
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it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing.
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If you're sitting in Japan,
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or in New Delhi,
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or in Hanoi,
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your view of the rise of China
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is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing.
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Indeed, one of the advantages
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that the Americans will have
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in terms of power in Asia
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is all those countries
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want an American insurance policy
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against the rise of China.
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It's as though Mexico and Canada
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were hostile neighbors to the United States,
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which they're not.
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So these simple projections
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of the Goldman Sachs type
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are not telling us what we need to know
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about power transition.
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But you might ask, well so what in any case?
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Why does it matter? Who cares?
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Is this just a game
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that diplomats and academics play?
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The answer is it matters quite a lot.
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Because, if you believe in decline
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and you get the answers wrong on this,
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the facts, not the myths,
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you may have policies which are very dangerous.
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Let me give you an example from history.
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The Peloponnesian War
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was the great conflict
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in which the Greek city state system
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tore itself apart
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two and a half millennia ago.
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What caused it?
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Thucydides, the great historian of the the Peloponnesian War,
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said it was the rise in the power of Athens
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and the fear it created in Sparta.
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Notice both halves of that explanation.
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Many people argue
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that the 21st century
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is going to repeat the 20th century,
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in which World War One,
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the great conflagration
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in which the European state system
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tore itself apart
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and destroyed its centrality in the world,
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that that was caused by
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the rise in the power of Germany
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and the fear it created in Britain.
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So there are people who are telling us
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this is going to be reproduced today,
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that what we're going to see
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is the same thing now in this century.
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No, I think that's wrong.
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It's bad history.
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For one thing, Germany had surpassed Britain
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in industrial strength by 1900.
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And as I said earlier,
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China has not passed the United States.
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But also, if you have this belief
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and it creates a sense of fear,
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it leads to overreaction.
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And the greatest danger we have
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of managing this power transition
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of the shift toward the East is fear.
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To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt
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from a different context,
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the greatest thing we have to fear is fear itself.
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We don't have to fear the rise of China
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or the return of Asia.
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And if we have policies
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in which we take it
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in that larger historical perspective,
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we're going to be able
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to manage this process.
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Let me say a word now
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about the distribution of power
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and how it relates to power diffusion
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and then pull these two types together.
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If you ask how is power distributed in the world today,
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it's distributed much like
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a three-dimensional chess game.
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Top board:
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military power among states.
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The United States is the only superpower,
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and it's likely to remain that way
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for two or three decades.
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China's not going to replace the U.S. on this military board.
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Middle board of this three-dimensional chess game:
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economic power among states.
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Power is multi-polar.
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There are balancers --
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the U.S., Europe,
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China, Japan
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can balance each other.
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The bottom board of this three-dimensional,
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the board of transnational relations,
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things that cross borders outside the control of governments,
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things like climate change, drug trade,
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financial flows,
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pandemics,
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all these things that cross borders
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outside the control of governments,
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there nobody's in charge.
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It makes no sense to call this unipolar
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or multi-polar.
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Power is chaotically distributed.
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And the only way you can solve these problems --
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and this is where many greatest challenges
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are coming in this century --
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is through cooperation,
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through working together,
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which means that soft power becomes more important,
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that ability to organize networks
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to deal with these kinds of problems
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and to be able to get cooperation.
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Another way of putting it
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is that as we think of power in the 21st century,
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we want to get away from the idea
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that power's always zero sum --
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my gain is your loss and vice versa.
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Power can also be positive sum,
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where your gain can be my gain.
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If China develops greater energy security
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and greater capacity
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to deal with its problems of carbon emissions,
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that's good for us
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as well as good for China
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as well as good for everybody else.
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So empowering China
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to deal with its own problems of carbon
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is good for everybody,
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and it's not a zero sum, I win, you lose.
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It's one in which we can all gain.
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15:31
So as we think about power
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in this century,
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we want to get away from this view
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that it's all I win, you lose.
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15:40
Now I don't mean to be Pollyannaish about this.
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Wars persist. Power persists.
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Military power is important.
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Keeping balances is important.
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All this still persists.
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Hard power is there,
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and it will remain.
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But unless you learn how to mix
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hard power with soft power
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into strategies that I call smart power,
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you're not going to deal with the new kinds of problems
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that we're facing.
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16:07
So the key question that we need to think about as we look at this
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is how do we work together
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to produce global public goods,
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16:15
things from which all of us can benefit?
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16:18
How do we define our national interests
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so that it's not just zero sum,
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16:22
but positive sum.
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16:24
In that sense, if we define our interests,
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for example, for the United States
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16:28
the way Britain defined its interests in the 19th century,
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keeping an open trading system,
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keeping a monetary stability, keeping freedom of the seas --
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those were good for Britain,
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they were good for others as well.
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And in the 21st century, you have to do an analog to that.
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How do we produce global public goods,
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which are good for us,
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but good for everyone at the same time?
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16:51
And that's going to be the good news dimension
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of what we need to think about
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as we think of power in the 21st century.
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There are ways to define our interests
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in which, while protecting ourselves with hard power,
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we can organize with others in networks
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to produce, not only public goods,
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but ways that will enhance our soft power.
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So if one looks at the statements
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that have been made about this,
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I am impressed that when Hillary Clinton
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described the foreign policy
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of the Obama administration,
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she said that the foreign policy of the Obama administration
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was going to be smart power,
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as she put it, "using all the tools
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in our foreign policy tool box."
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And if we're going to deal
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with these two great power shifts that I've described,
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the power shift represented by transition among states,
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17:44
the power shift represented
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by diffusion of power away from all states,
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17:49
we're going to have to develop a new narrative of power
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in which we combine hard and soft power
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into strategies of smart power.
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And that's the good news I have. We can do that.
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Thank you very much.
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18:03
(Applause)
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Original video on YouTube.com
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