What will humans look like in 100 years? | Juan Enriquez

翻译人员: Junyi Sha 校对人员: alice leong

Here's a question that matters.

这里有一个重要的问题。

[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]

【改造人体会出现道德问题吗】

Because we're beginning to get all the tools together to evolve ourselves.

因为我们已经开始拥有 改造自身所需的所有工具了。

And we can evolve bacteria and we can evolve plants

我们可以改造细菌， 我们可以改造植物，

and we can evolve animals,

我们也可以改造动物，

and we're now reaching a point where we really have to ask,

我们现在已经到了必须要 问这个问题的时候了，

is it really ethical and do we want to evolve human beings?

这是否会导致道德问题， 或者我们是否想要改造人类？

And as you're thinking about that,

在你们思考这个问题的时候，

let me talk about that in the context of prosthetics,

让我就假肢为例子 和你们谈谈这件事，

prosthetics past, present, future.

假肢的过去，现在和未来。

So this is the iron hand

这是一只铁制手臂，

that belonged to one of the German counts.

它属于一位德国伯爵。

Loved to fight, lost his arm in one of these battles.

嗜爱战争的他，在一场 战役中失去了他的手臂。

No problem, he just made a suit of armor,

不过也不是问题， 他做了一套战服，

put it on,

穿上它，

perfect prosthetic.

就拥有了完美的假肢。

That's where the concept of ruling with an iron fist comes from.

这就是术语“铁拳执政”的来源。

And of course these prosthetics have been getting more and more useful,

当然，这些假肢变得越来越实用，

more and more modern.

越来越现代化。

You can hold soft-boiled eggs.

你可以用它拿像水煮蛋 这样柔软的东西。

You can have all types of controls, and as you're thinking about that,

你可以做出各种控制， 当你们思考这件事的时候，

there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr

像修米･赫尔这样神奇的人

who have been building absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.

就做出了绝对不可思议的假肢。

So the wonderful Aimee Mullins will go out and say,

这就让伟大的艾米·穆林斯 （残奥会短跑冠军）能走出家门说，

how tall do I want to be tonight?

今晚我要什么身高，戴哪副假肢呢？

Or Hugh will say what type of cliff do I want to climb?

或者她会说： 我今天应该爬哪种岩壁？

Or does somebody want to run a marathon, or does somebody want to ballroom dance?

亦或者，有人想去跑个马拉松， 或是参加交际舞会吗？

And as you adapt these things,

当你适应了这些事情的时候，

the interesting thing about prosthetics is they've been coming inside the body.

有趣的是，现在的假肢 都已经能来自体内了。

So these external prosthetics have now become artificial knees.

所以这些外部假肢 就变成了人造膝盖，

They've become artificial hips.

变成了人造髋关节。

And then they've evolved further

然后它们又更进一步的发展了，

to become not just nice to have

不再只是锦上添花的东西，

而是至关重要的部分。

but essential to have.

So when you're talking about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,

当你把一个心脏起搏器当成假肢时，

you're talking about something that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"

那你就不仅仅是在说， “我缺条腿”这么简单，

it's, "if I don't have this, I can die."

而是“如果我没有这个，我就会死掉。”

And at that point, a prosthetic becomes a symbiotic relationship

在那种程度上，假肢与人体就形成了

with the human body.

一种共生关系。

And four of the smartest people that I've ever met --

而四个我见过的最聪明的人——

Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr, Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --

艾德·鲍登，修米･赫尔， 乔･雅各布森，鲍勃･兰登——

are working on a Center for Extreme Bionics.

他们都在一家极致仿生中心工作。

而你们现在看到的 一件有趣的事情是，

And the interesting thing of what you're seeing here is

these prosthetics now get integrated into the bone.

这些假肢已经能融入人体骨骼当中，

能融入皮肤之中，

They get integrated into the skin.

They get integrated into the muscle.

也能融入肌肉组织之中。

And one of the other sides of Ed

而另一方面，艾德也开始

is he's been thinking about how to connect the brain

思考如何使用灯光或其他机制

using light or other mechanisms

使大脑能够直接和

directly to things like these prosthetics.

假肢类的东西相联结。

And if you can do that,

如果我们能做到那一点，

then you can begin changing fundamental aspects of humanity.

那么我们就可以改变 人类的基本组成部分了。

So how quickly you react to something depends on the diameter of a nerve.

你对于一个事物的反应速度 是由神经元直径决定的。

And of course, if you have nerves that are external or prosthetic,

但是当然，如果你的神经 是外缘的，或是假肢，

say with light or liquid metal,

举个例子，光线或是液态金属，

then you can increase that diameter

那么你们就能增宽神经元的直径，

从理论上来说，我们甚至 可以提升反应速度，

and you could even increase it theoretically to the point where,

快到只要能看见枪口的 闪光，就能躲开子弹。

as long as you could see the muzzle flash, you could step out of the way of a bullet.

Those are the order of magnitude of changes you're talking about.

这些就是我们准备讨论的 变化的级别。

This is a fourth sort of level of prosthetics.

这是假肢的第四种境界。

These are Phonak hearing aids,

这是一些峰力助听器，

and the reason why these are so interesting

这些东西很有趣，

原因是它们已经跨越了假肢是

is because they cross the threshold from where prosthetics are something

帮助“障碍人群”的门槛了。

for somebody who is "disabled"

and they become something that somebody who is "normal"

它们变成了“正常人群”

might want to actually have,

也想要的东西，

because what this prosthetic does, which is really interesting,

因为这种假肢所能做的， 非常有趣，

不仅仅能够帮助你听见声音，

is not only does it help you hear,

还能帮助你专注于听，

you can focus your hearing,

能帮你听见别处的声音。

so it can hear the conversation going on over there.

这样你就有了顺风耳。

You can have superhearing.

你可以听到全方位的声音。 你可以听见白噪声。

You can have hearing in 360 degrees. You can have white noise.

你可以录音，顺便提一下， 它们还可以承载手机功能。

You can record, and oh, by the way, they also put a phone into this.

So this functions as your hearing aid and also as your phone.

所以它的功能不仅是助听， 还可以成为你的手机。

And at that point, somebody might actually want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.

到了那时，就会有人 自愿去安装假肢了。

All of these thousands of loosely connected little pieces

这些成千的连接疏松的碎片

正在聚集起来，

are coming together,

是时候让我们提出疑问，

and it's about time we ask the question,

我们在下一个，或者两个世纪 打算如何改造人类？

how do we want to evolve human beings over the next century or two?

And for that we turn to a great philosopher

我们向一个伟大的哲学家求助，

who was a very smart man despite being a Yankee fan.

他是非常聪明的人， 尽管是洋基队的粉丝。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And Yogi Berra used to say, of course, that it's very tough to make predictions,

当然，就像约吉·贝拉说过的那样， 预测不是一件简单的事情，

especially about the future.

特别是关于未来的预测。

（笑声）

(Laughter)

So instead of making a prediction about the future to begin with,

所以说，我们开篇就先不预测未来，

let's take what's happening in the present with people like Tony Atala,

让我们看看当下，发生在像 托尼・阿塔拉这样的人身上的故事吧，

who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.

托尼身上有着30多个再设计过的器官。

And maybe the ultimate prosthetic isn't having something external, titanium.

也许最终版本的假肢已经不需要了， 例如金属钛这种外缘材料。

Maybe the ultimate prosthetic is take your own gene code,

也许会来自你们自身的基因编码，

remake your own body parts,

重新制造身体的一部分，

because that's a whole lot more effective than any kind of a prosthetic.

因为那会比任何一种假肢效果都要好。

But while you're at it, then you can take the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.

当你们这么想的时候，就可以看看 克雷格·文特尔和翰姆·史密斯的工作。

And one of the things that we've been doing

我们一直以来想要做的事情之一，

is trying to figure out how to reprogram cells.

就是想出如何重新编码细胞。

And if you can reprogram a cell,

如果你可以重新编码细胞，

then you can change the cells in those organs.

你就可以改变那些器官中的细胞。

So if you can change the cells in those organs,

因此，如果我们可以改变 器官中的细胞，

maybe you make those organs more radiation-resistant.

也许我们就能使得 那些细胞更加耐辐射；

也许能让它们吸收更多氧气；

Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.

让它们更加高效的

Maybe you make them more efficient

to filter out stuff that you don't want in your body.

过滤人体所不需要的杂质。

And over the last few weeks, George Church has been in the news a lot

在过去的几周里， 乔治·丘奇经常上新闻，

because he's been talking about taking one of these programmable cells

因为他一直都在描述 一种可编码细胞，

and inserting an entire human genome

以及将整个人类基因组

into that cell.

插入那个细胞。

And once you can insert an entire human genome into a cell,

一旦我们能够将整个 人类基因组插入那个细胞当中，

then you begin to ask the question,

我们就会开始问这样的问题：

would you want to enhance any of that genome?

你们想要加强 基因中的任何部分吗？

Do you want to enhance a human body?

你们想要强化人体吗？

How would you want to enhance a human body?

你们想要怎样强化人体？

Where is it ethical to enhance a human body

怎样强化是合乎道德的？

and where is it not ethical to enhance a human body?

而怎样又是不合乎道德的？

And all of a sudden, what we're doing

突然之间，我们正在做的，

is we've got this multidimensional chess board

仿佛是得到了一个多维棋盘：

where we can change human genetics by using viruses

我们可以通过病毒来改变人类的基因，

to attack things like AIDS,

从而攻克艾滋这样的疾病，

或者我们也可以通过 改变基因序列，基因疗法，

or we can change the gene code through gene therapy

to do away with some hereditary diseases,

来对付遗传性疾病，

or we can change the environment,

又或者说，我们 可以改变我们的环境，

and change the expression of those genes in the epigenome

我们还可以改变 显性基因的基因表达，

and pass that on to the next generations.

将表象传递给下一代人。

And all of a sudden, it's not just one little bit,

一瞬之间，就变得不止是一点点了，

it's all these stacked little bits

这些一点点累积起来，

that allow you to take little portions of it

每次拿走一点点，

until all the portions coming together

直到它们汇集起来，

lead you to something that's very different.

让你变得完全不同。

And a lot of people are very scared by this stuff.

很多人对此感到害怕。

And it does sound scary, and there are risks to this stuff.

这听起来确实很恐怖， 也很有风险。

那么我们到底为什么想要这么做呢？

So why in the world would you ever want to do this stuff?

Why would we really want to alter the human body

为什么我们希望彻底的

in a fundamental way?

改变人体呢？

英国皇家天文协会的

The answer lies in part

with Lord Rees,

洛德・里斯

astronomer royal of Great Britain.

给我们提供了部分答案。

And one of his favorite sayings is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.

他最喜欢说的一句话就是： 宇宙是百分之百邪恶的。

So what does that mean?

这是什么意思呢？

It means if you take any one of your bodies at random,

意思就是，随机取下你身体的一部分

drop it anywhere in the universe,

扔在宇宙的任何地方，

drop it in space, you die.

扔在太空，你就死定了。

Drop it on the Sun, you die.

扔在太阳上，死定了。

Drop it on the surface of Mercury, you die.

扔在水星表面上，死定了。

Drop it near a supernova, you die.

扔在超新星附近，死定了。

But fortunately, it's only about 80 percent effective.

但幸运的是，这句话 只有80%是正确的。

So as a great physicist once said,

一位伟大的物理学家曾说过，

就是那些处于上游的小生物漩涡，

there's these little upstream eddies of biology

that create order in this rapid torrent of entropy.

创造了汹涌洪流当中的秩序。

所以随着宇宙不断耗散能量，

So as the universe dissipates energy,

there's these upstream eddies that create biological order.

这些处于上游的小型生命漩涡， 创造了生物界的秩序。

Now, the problem with eddies is,

现在，关于小漩涡的问题就是

they tend to disappear.

它们要消失了。

They shift. They move in rivers.

它们会在星河中移动。

And because of that, when an eddy shifts,

因为这样的原因， 当小漩涡移动的时候，

when the Earth becomes a snowball, when the Earth becomes very hot,

当地球变成雪球的时候， 变得炙热的时候，

when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid, when you have supervolcanoes,

当地球被小行星击中的时候， 当我们遇到超级火山爆发的时候，

when you have solar flares,

当我们遇到太阳耀斑 爆发的时候，

when you have potentially extinction-level events

当我们遇到潜在的 毁灭级事件的时候，

like the next election --

比如下届选举这种事——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

then all of a sudden, you can have periodic extinctions.

然后突然之间，我们就会 遇到周期性的大灭绝。

And by the way, that's happened five times on Earth,

顺便提一下，这已经在地球上 上演过五次了。

and therefore it is very likely

因此，人类有朝一日

that the human species on Earth is going to go extinct someday.

在地球上灭绝 是非常可能发生的。

Not next week,

不是下个星期，

not next month,

不是下个月，

maybe in November, but maybe 10,000 years after that.

也许就是11月， 但也许是那之后的一万年。

As you're thinking of the consequence of that,

想象一下那样的结果，

if you believe that extinctions are common and natural

如果你相信大灭绝 是平常的，自然的，

and normal and occur periodically,

会周期性发生，

it becomes a moral imperative to diversify our species.

这就成为了一个使我们的 物种多样化的道德准则。

And it becomes a moral imperative

之所以会成为道德准则，

because it's going to be really hard to live on Mars

是因为如果我们不彻底修改人体，

if we don't fundamentally modify the human body.

那么我们就很难在火星上生存。

Right?

不难理解吧？

我们都来自一个细胞，

You go from one cell,

mom and dad coming together to make one cell,

父母一起产生的一个细胞，

in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.

通过连续分裂产生了10兆个细胞。

We don't know, if you change the gravity substantially,

我们不能确定彻底改变重力时，

if the same thing will happen to create your body.

相同的事情还会发生在我们体内。

We do know that if you expose our bodies as they currently are

我们能确定的是现在将自己的身体

to a lot of radiation, we will die.

暴露在强辐射下，我们就会死。

当你这样想的时候，就会发现 仅仅是为了去火星，

So as you're thinking of that, you have to really redesign things

just to get to Mars.

我们就必须重新编码自己。

Forget about the moons of Neptune or Jupiter.

更不用说去海王星或木星的卫星了。

借用一下尼古拉·卡尔达肖夫 （前苏联天体物理学家）的话，

And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,

let's think about life in a series of scales.

让我们在一系列的 尺度上考虑一下生命。

So Life One civilization

在一级生命文明当中

is a civilization that begins to alter his or her looks.

可以开始改变人类的长相。

我们已经这样做了数千年了。

And we've been doing that for thousands of years.

You've got tummy tucks and you've got this and you've got that.

你可以做腹部整形， 整整这儿，整整那儿。

You alter your looks, and I'm told

你能改变你的长相，我听人说

that not all of those alterations take place for medical reasons.

不是所有改变的背后 都有医疗缘由。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Seems odd.

看起来很奇怪。

A Life Two civilization is a different civilization.

二级生命文明就是完全不同的了。

A Life Two civilization alters fundamental aspects of the body.

二级生命文明就开始 改变人体的基本特征了。

So you put human growth hormone in, the person grows taller,

所以你可以注射生长激素， 使人长的更高，

or you put x in and the person gets fatter or loses metabolism

或者使用某种药物， 使人变胖，新陈代谢失调，

or does a whole series of things,

或者发生一系列的改变。

but you're altering the functions in a fundamental way.

但是你已经彻底改变了基础机能了。

要成为整个太阳系内文明，

To become an intrasolar civilization,

we're going to have to create a Life Three civilization,

我们必须要经历三级生命文明，

and that looks very different from what we've got here.

而且明显有别于 所提到的二级文明。

Maybe you splice in Deinococcus radiodurans

也许你会被植入耐辐射球菌，

so that the cells can resplice after a lot of exposure to radiation.

这样在大量暴露于辐射后 受损的细胞仍能复原。

Maybe you breathe by having oxygen flow through your blood

也许你就会将氧气 直接吸入血液当中

instead of through your lungs.

而不是肺中。

But you're talking about really radical redesigns,

但是我们正在讨论的 是完全彻底的重设，

and one of the interesting things that's happened in the last decade

在过去十年间 发生了一件有趣的事情，

is we've discovered a whole lot of planets out there.

那就是我们在宇宙间 发现了更多的行星。

And some of them may be Earth-like.

其中的很多都属于类地行星。

The problem is, if we ever want to get to these planets,

问题在于，如果我们 想要到达那些行星，

the fastest human objects --

人类拥有的的最快物体——

Juno and Voyager and the rest of this stuff --

朱诺和旅行者， 还有剩下类似的东西——

take tens of thousands of years

将花费我们数千万年，

to get from here to the nearest solar system.

才能从这里 到达离我们最近的恒星系。

So if you want to start exploring beaches somewhere else,

所以，如果我们想在 其他地方漫步沙滩，

or you want to see two-sun sunsets,

或者想要看双日落，

then you're talking about something that is very different,

那么我们在讨论的 一定是非常不同的东西，

因为我们必须要改变 时间维度和人体的构造

because you have to change the timescale and the body of humans

in ways which may be absolutely unrecognizable.

直到超乎想象的地步。

那就是四级生命文明。

And that's a Life Four civilization.

Now, we can't even begin to imagine what that might look like,

现在，虽然我们无法想象 我们会变成什么样，

but we're beginning to get glimpses

但是我们已经能看到

能把我们带到那里的 一些尖端设备了。

of instruments that might take us even that far.

And let me give you two examples.

我给你们举两个例子。

So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,

这就是我们出色的弗洛伊德・瑞姆斯伯格， （另一位TEDMED演讲者）

and one of the things that Floyd's been doing

弗洛伊德一直在做的事情之一就是

研究基础生命化学。

is he's been playing with the basic chemistry of life.

So all life on this planet is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.

地球上的所有生命都由ATCG组成， DNA链中的四个结构单元。

All bacteria, all plants, all animals, all humans, all cows,

所有的细菌，植物， 动物，人类，奶牛，

everything else.

所有的生物。

And what Floyd did is he changed out two of those base pairs,

弗洛伊德做的就是 改变了其中的两组碱基对，

so it's ATXY.

就变成了ATXY组合。

And that means that you now have a parallel system to make life,

这就意味着，你现在拥有了 一个制造生命的平行体系，

to make babies, to reproduce, to evolve,

去产生幼儿，去繁殖，去进化，

that doesn't mate with most things on Earth

不能与地球上的大多数生命配对，

或者说事实上全都不能。

or in fact maybe with nothing on Earth.

Maybe you make plants that are immune to all bacteria.

也许你能够制造出 对所有细菌免疫的植物。

Maybe you make plants that are immune to all viruses.

也许你能制造出 对所有病毒免疫的植物。

But why is that so interesting?

但是，这为什么有趣呢？

It means that we are not a unique solution.

因为这就意味着，我们 不只有唯一的解决方案了。

It means you can create alternate chemistries to us

这就意味着，我们能够造出 不同于我们的化学生物，

that could be chemistries adaptable to a very different planet

它们能够适应不同星球上的生活，

它们能创造生命，繁衍生息。

that could create life and heredity.

The second experiment,

第二个实验，

or the other implication of this experiment,

或者说是这个实验的另一个运用，

is that all of you, all life is based on 20 amino acids.

就是我们所有人，所有的 生命都基于20种氨基酸。

If you don't substitute two amino acids,

如果我们并不是 去替换其中的两种，

if you don't say ATXY, if you say ATCG + XY,

我们不用ATXY的模式， 我们用ATCG＋XY的模式，

then you go from 20 building blocks to 172,

我们就能够从20种 基础氨基酸增长到172种，

and all of a sudden you've got 172 building blocks of amino acids

转瞬间，我们就有了172种 基础氨基酸的模型

to build life-forms in very different shapes.

去建造完全不同的生命形式。

The second experiment to think about is a really weird experiment

第二个实验，是在中国做的

that's been taking place in China.

一个非常诡异的实验。

So this guy has been transplanting hundreds of mouse heads.

这个家伙已经换植过 上百只老鼠的头了。

听上去怎么样？

Right?

And why is that an interesting experiment?

为什么这个实验很有趣呢？

Well, think of the first heart transplants.

想一想第一场心脏移植手术。

One of the things they used to do

他人们以前经常做的一件事

就是会把器官捐赠者的 妻子或女儿带过来，

is they used to bring in the wife or the daughter of the donor

so the donee could tell the doctors,

这样被捐赠者就可以回答医生的问题，

"Do you recognize this person? Do you love this person?

“你认识这个人吗？你爱她吗？

你看到她能感觉到什么吗？”

Do you feel anything for this person?"

We laugh about that today.

今天，我们当然会把这当笑话讲。

We laugh because we know the heart is a muscle,

我们笑是因为我们知道 心脏只是一块肌肉，

but for hundreds of thousands of years, or tens of thousands of years,

但是，在历史上的若干年间，

"I gave her my heart. She took my heart. She broke my heart."

“我把心献给了她。 她勾走了我的心。让我心碎。”

我们都把心脏当成感情的来源，

We thought this was emotion

and we thought maybe emotions were transplanted with the heart. Nope.

我们以为感情会与心相随， 一同被移植。不是这样的。

但是如果换成大脑呢？

So how about the brain?

有两种可能的结局。

Two possible outcomes to this experiment.

If you can get a mouse

如果你能成功得到

that is functional,

一只活着的老鼠，

then you can see,

你会观察到，

is the new brain a blank slate?

它的新大脑是否是一片空白？

And boy, does that have implications.

甚至，这个大脑是不是有同样的功能？

第二种可能：

Second option:

the new mouse recognizes Minnie Mouse.

新的老鼠还记得它的恋爱对象。

The new mouse remembers what it's afraid of,

新的老鼠还记得它害怕什么，

remembers how to navigate the maze,

记得迷宫的线路，

and if that is true,

如果这是真的，

我们就能够移植 我们的记忆和意识。

then you can transplant memory and consciousness.

And then the really interesting question is,

然后就引发了一个有趣的问题，

if you can transplant this, is the only input-output mechanism

移植大脑的过程， 是否是对于下半身唯一的

this down here?

输入输出信号的控制呢？

Or could you transplant that consciousness into something

或者说，我们能否将意识转入一个

that would be very different,

十分不同的东西里，

that would last in space,

使它能够在宇宙中长远留存，

that would last tens of thousands of years,

能够持续数万年，

that would be a completely redesigned body

这是身体的完全重设，

that could hold consciousness for a long, long period of time?

使我们的意识能够存在 很长，很长一段时间？

And let's come back to the first question:

那么，让我们重新回到开始的问题：

Why would you ever want to do that?

为什么我们会想要那么做？

Well, I'll tell you why.

好吧，让我来告诉你们原因。

Because this is the ultimate selfie.

因为这就是我们的终极自拍照。

（笑声）

(Laughter)

This is taken from six billion miles away,

这将来自六十亿英里以外，

and that's Earth.

那就是地球。

And that's all of us.

里面包括我们所有人。

And if that little thing goes, all of humanity goes.

如果那个小东西能够持续下去， 整个人类就会存活下去。

And the reason you want to alter the human body

我们之所以想要改变人体，

is because you eventually want a picture that says,

是因为我们最终想要 一张照片，上面写着，

that's us, and that's us,

这是我们，这是我们，

and that's us,

这也是我们，

because that's the way humanity survives long-term extinction.

因为这让人类得以 幸存于漫长的灭绝事件中。

And that's the reason why it turns out

这就是为什么结果表明，

it's actually unethical not to evolve the human body

不进化人体是不道德的。

even though it can be scary, even though it can be challenging,

即使那可能很可怕， 即使可能很困难，

but it's what's going to allow us to explore, live

但这会使我们能够去探索，生存，

and get to places we can't even dream of today,

到达当今无法想象的地方，

but which our great-great-great-great- grandchildren might someday.

也许我们的曾曾曾曾孙辈 有朝一日会实现这个目标。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）