What will humans look like in 100 years? | Juan Enriquez

1,164,198 views ・ 2016-12-15

TED


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00:14
Here's a question that matters.
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[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]
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Because we're beginning to get all the tools together to evolve ourselves.
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And we can evolve bacteria and we can evolve plants
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and we can evolve animals,
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and we're now reaching a point where we really have to ask,
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is it really ethical and do we want to evolve human beings?
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And as you're thinking about that,
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let me talk about that in the context of prosthetics,
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prosthetics past, present, future.
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So this is the iron hand
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that belonged to one of the German counts.
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Loved to fight, lost his arm in one of these battles.
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No problem, he just made a suit of armor,
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put it on,
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perfect prosthetic.
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That's where the concept of ruling with an iron fist comes from.
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And of course these prosthetics have been getting more and more useful,
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more and more modern.
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You can hold soft-boiled eggs.
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You can have all types of controls, and as you're thinking about that,
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there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr
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who have been building absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.
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So the wonderful Aimee Mullins will go out and say,
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how tall do I want to be tonight?
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Or Hugh will say what type of cliff do I want to climb?
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Or does somebody want to run a marathon, or does somebody want to ballroom dance?
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And as you adapt these things,
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the interesting thing about prosthetics is they've been coming inside the body.
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So these external prosthetics have now become artificial knees.
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They've become artificial hips.
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And then they've evolved further
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to become not just nice to have
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but essential to have.
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So when you're talking about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,
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you're talking about something that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"
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it's, "if I don't have this, I can die."
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And at that point, a prosthetic becomes a symbiotic relationship
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with the human body.
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And four of the smartest people that I've ever met --
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Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr, Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --
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are working on a Center for Extreme Bionics.
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And the interesting thing of what you're seeing here is
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these prosthetics now get integrated into the bone.
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They get integrated into the skin.
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They get integrated into the muscle.
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And one of the other sides of Ed
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is he's been thinking about how to connect the brain
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using light or other mechanisms
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directly to things like these prosthetics.
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And if you can do that,
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then you can begin changing fundamental aspects of humanity.
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So how quickly you react to something depends on the diameter of a nerve.
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And of course, if you have nerves that are external or prosthetic,
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say with light or liquid metal,
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then you can increase that diameter
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and you could even increase it theoretically to the point where,
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as long as you could see the muzzle flash, you could step out of the way of a bullet.
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Those are the order of magnitude of changes you're talking about.
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This is a fourth sort of level of prosthetics.
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These are Phonak hearing aids,
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and the reason why these are so interesting
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is because they cross the threshold from where prosthetics are something
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for somebody who is "disabled"
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and they become something that somebody who is "normal"
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might want to actually have,
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because what this prosthetic does, which is really interesting,
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is not only does it help you hear,
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you can focus your hearing,
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so it can hear the conversation going on over there.
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You can have superhearing.
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You can have hearing in 360 degrees. You can have white noise.
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You can record, and oh, by the way, they also put a phone into this.
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So this functions as your hearing aid and also as your phone.
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And at that point, somebody might actually want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.
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All of these thousands of loosely connected little pieces
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are coming together,
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and it's about time we ask the question,
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how do we want to evolve human beings over the next century or two?
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And for that we turn to a great philosopher
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who was a very smart man despite being a Yankee fan.
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(Laughter)
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And Yogi Berra used to say, of course, that it's very tough to make predictions,
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especially about the future.
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(Laughter)
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So instead of making a prediction about the future to begin with,
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let's take what's happening in the present with people like Tony Atala,
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who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.
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And maybe the ultimate prosthetic isn't having something external, titanium.
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Maybe the ultimate prosthetic is take your own gene code,
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remake your own body parts,
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because that's a whole lot more effective than any kind of a prosthetic.
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But while you're at it, then you can take the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.
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And one of the things that we've been doing
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is trying to figure out how to reprogram cells.
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And if you can reprogram a cell,
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then you can change the cells in those organs.
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So if you can change the cells in those organs,
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maybe you make those organs more radiation-resistant.
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Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.
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Maybe you make them more efficient
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to filter out stuff that you don't want in your body.
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And over the last few weeks, George Church has been in the news a lot
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because he's been talking about taking one of these programmable cells
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and inserting an entire human genome
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into that cell.
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And once you can insert an entire human genome into a cell,
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then you begin to ask the question,
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would you want to enhance any of that genome?
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Do you want to enhance a human body?
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How would you want to enhance a human body?
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Where is it ethical to enhance a human body
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and where is it not ethical to enhance a human body?
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And all of a sudden, what we're doing
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is we've got this multidimensional chess board
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where we can change human genetics by using viruses
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to attack things like AIDS,
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or we can change the gene code through gene therapy
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to do away with some hereditary diseases,
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or we can change the environment,
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and change the expression of those genes in the epigenome
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and pass that on to the next generations.
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And all of a sudden, it's not just one little bit,
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it's all these stacked little bits
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that allow you to take little portions of it
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until all the portions coming together
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lead you to something that's very different.
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And a lot of people are very scared by this stuff.
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And it does sound scary, and there are risks to this stuff.
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So why in the world would you ever want to do this stuff?
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Why would we really want to alter the human body
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in a fundamental way?
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The answer lies in part
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with Lord Rees,
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astronomer royal of Great Britain.
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And one of his favorite sayings is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.
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So what does that mean?
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It means if you take any one of your bodies at random,
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drop it anywhere in the universe,
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drop it in space, you die.
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Drop it on the Sun, you die.
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Drop it on the surface of Mercury, you die.
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Drop it near a supernova, you die.
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But fortunately, it's only about 80 percent effective.
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So as a great physicist once said,
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there's these little upstream eddies of biology
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that create order in this rapid torrent of entropy.
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So as the universe dissipates energy,
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there's these upstream eddies that create biological order.
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Now, the problem with eddies is,
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they tend to disappear.
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They shift. They move in rivers.
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And because of that, when an eddy shifts,
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when the Earth becomes a snowball, when the Earth becomes very hot,
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when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid, when you have supervolcanoes,
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when you have solar flares,
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when you have potentially extinction-level events
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like the next election --
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(Laughter)
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then all of a sudden, you can have periodic extinctions.
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And by the way, that's happened five times on Earth,
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and therefore it is very likely
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that the human species on Earth is going to go extinct someday.
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Not next week,
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not next month,
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maybe in November, but maybe 10,000 years after that.
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As you're thinking of the consequence of that,
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if you believe that extinctions are common and natural
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and normal and occur periodically,
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it becomes a moral imperative to diversify our species.
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And it becomes a moral imperative
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because it's going to be really hard to live on Mars
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if we don't fundamentally modify the human body.
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Right?
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You go from one cell,
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mom and dad coming together to make one cell,
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in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.
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We don't know, if you change the gravity substantially,
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if the same thing will happen to create your body.
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We do know that if you expose our bodies as they currently are
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to a lot of radiation, we will die.
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So as you're thinking of that, you have to really redesign things
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just to get to Mars.
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Forget about the moons of Neptune or Jupiter.
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And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,
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let's think about life in a series of scales.
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So Life One civilization
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is a civilization that begins to alter his or her looks.
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And we've been doing that for thousands of years.
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You've got tummy tucks and you've got this and you've got that.
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You alter your looks, and I'm told
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that not all of those alterations take place for medical reasons.
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(Laughter)
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Seems odd.
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A Life Two civilization is a different civilization.
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A Life Two civilization alters fundamental aspects of the body.
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So you put human growth hormone in, the person grows taller,
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or you put x in and the person gets fatter or loses metabolism
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or does a whole series of things,
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but you're altering the functions in a fundamental way.
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To become an intrasolar civilization,
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we're going to have to create a Life Three civilization,
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and that looks very different from what we've got here.
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Maybe you splice in Deinococcus radiodurans
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so that the cells can resplice after a lot of exposure to radiation.
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Maybe you breathe by having oxygen flow through your blood
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instead of through your lungs.
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But you're talking about really radical redesigns,
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and one of the interesting things that's happened in the last decade
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is we've discovered a whole lot of planets out there.
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And some of them may be Earth-like.
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The problem is, if we ever want to get to these planets,
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the fastest human objects --
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Juno and Voyager and the rest of this stuff --
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take tens of thousands of years
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to get from here to the nearest solar system.
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So if you want to start exploring beaches somewhere else,
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or you want to see two-sun sunsets,
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then you're talking about something that is very different,
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because you have to change the timescale and the body of humans
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in ways which may be absolutely unrecognizable.
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And that's a Life Four civilization.
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Now, we can't even begin to imagine what that might look like,
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but we're beginning to get glimpses
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of instruments that might take us even that far.
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And let me give you two examples.
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So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,
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and one of the things that Floyd's been doing
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is he's been playing with the basic chemistry of life.
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So all life on this planet is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.
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All bacteria, all plants, all animals, all humans, all cows,
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everything else.
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And what Floyd did is he changed out two of those base pairs,
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so it's ATXY.
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And that means that you now have a parallel system to make life,
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to make babies, to reproduce, to evolve,
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that doesn't mate with most things on Earth
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or in fact maybe with nothing on Earth.
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Maybe you make plants that are immune to all bacteria.
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Maybe you make plants that are immune to all viruses.
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But why is that so interesting?
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It means that we are not a unique solution.
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It means you can create alternate chemistries to us
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that could be chemistries adaptable to a very different planet
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that could create life and heredity.
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The second experiment,
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or the other implication of this experiment,
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is that all of you, all life is based on 20 amino acids.
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If you don't substitute two amino acids,
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if you don't say ATXY, if you say ATCG + XY,
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then you go from 20 building blocks to 172,
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and all of a sudden you've got 172 building blocks of amino acids
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to build life-forms in very different shapes.
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The second experiment to think about is a really weird experiment
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that's been taking place in China.
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So this guy has been transplanting hundreds of mouse heads.
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Right?
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And why is that an interesting experiment?
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Well, think of the first heart transplants.
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One of the things they used to do
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is they used to bring in the wife or the daughter of the donor
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so the donee could tell the doctors,
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"Do you recognize this person? Do you love this person?
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Do you feel anything for this person?"
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We laugh about that today.
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We laugh because we know the heart is a muscle,
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but for hundreds of thousands of years, or tens of thousands of years,
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"I gave her my heart. She took my heart. She broke my heart."
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We thought this was emotion
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and we thought maybe emotions were transplanted with the heart. Nope.
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So how about the brain?
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Two possible outcomes to this experiment.
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If you can get a mouse
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that is functional,
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then you can see,
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is the new brain a blank slate?
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And boy, does that have implications.
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Second option:
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the new mouse recognizes Minnie Mouse.
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The new mouse remembers what it's afraid of,
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remembers how to navigate the maze,
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and if that is true,
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then you can transplant memory and consciousness.
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And then the really interesting question is,
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if you can transplant this, is the only input-output mechanism
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this down here?
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Or could you transplant that consciousness into something
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that would be very different,
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that would last in space,
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that would last tens of thousands of years,
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that would be a completely redesigned body
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that could hold consciousness for a long, long period of time?
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And let's come back to the first question:
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Why would you ever want to do that?
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Well, I'll tell you why.
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Because this is the ultimate selfie.
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(Laughter)
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This is taken from six billion miles away,
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and that's Earth.
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And that's all of us.
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And if that little thing goes, all of humanity goes.
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And the reason you want to alter the human body
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is because you eventually want a picture that says,
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that's us, and that's us,
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and that's us,
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because that's the way humanity survives long-term extinction.
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And that's the reason why it turns out
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it's actually unethical not to evolve the human body
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even though it can be scary, even though it can be challenging,
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but it's what's going to allow us to explore, live
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and get to places we can't even dream of today,
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but which our great-great-great-great- grandchildren might someday.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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