What will humans look like in 100 years? | Juan Enriquez

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Melody Tang

Here's a question that matters.

這裡有個重要的問題，

[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]

（改造人體是否符合道德？）

Because we're beginning to get all the tools together to evolve ourselves.

因為我們已經開始利用各種工具 來改造自己的身體。

And we can evolve bacteria and we can evolve plants

我們可以改造細菌、 我們可以改造植物，

and we can evolve animals,

我們還可以改造動物；

and we're now reaching a point where we really have to ask,

但是在此時，我們必須要自問：

我們真的想要改造人類嗎？ 而這是否符合道德？

is it really ethical and do we want to evolve human beings?

And as you're thinking about that,

當你在思考這個問題時，

let me talk about that in the context of prosthetics,

讓我先從「義肢」方面 來談這個話題，

包括義肢的過去、現在、未來。

prosthetics past, present, future.

So this is the iron hand

這支鐵製手臂

that belonged to one of the German counts.

是屬於一位德國伯爵的。

Loved to fight, lost his arm in one of these battles.

好戰的他，在一次戰爭中 失去了一隻手臂，

No problem, he just made a suit of armor,

不過沒關係， 他製作了一套鎧甲，

put it on,

穿上它，

就是個完美的義肢了。

perfect prosthetic.

That's where the concept of ruling with an iron fist comes from.

這就是「鐵腕統治」概念的由來。

And of course these prosthetics have been getting more and more useful,

當然，這些義肢也越來越好用，

越來越現代化了。

more and more modern.

你可以用它拿起半熟的水煮蛋。

You can hold soft-boiled eggs.

You can have all types of controls, and as you're thinking about that,

你可以任意地操控義肢， 而當你正在這麼想時，

there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr

像休‧賀爾教授這樣了不起的人，

who have been building absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.

已經製作出令人讚嘆的義肢。

So the wonderful Aimee Mullins will go out and say,

好到讓艾美．姆林絲 可以在出門前說：

how tall do I want to be tonight?

「今晚我想要變成多高呢？」

或是讓賀爾教授可以說： 「這次我想攀登哪一種峭壁呢？」

Or Hugh will say what type of cliff do I want to climb?

Or does somebody want to run a marathon, or does somebody want to ballroom dance?

或「有人想穿上義肢跑馬拉松嗎？」 「有人想穿上義肢跳國標舞嗎？」

And as you adapt these things,

而當你還在適應這些改變的時候，

the interesting thing about prosthetics is they've been coming inside the body.

更有趣的事情是， 義肢已經進入人體內了。

So these external prosthetics have now become artificial knees.

所以這些原本在人體外的義肢 現在成為人工關節，

They've become artificial hips.

成為人造的大腿骨。

And then they've evolved further

然後，它們又更加進化，

to become not just nice to have

不只成為人類的好幫手。

現在更成為必需品了。

but essential to have.

So when you're talking about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,

所以當你提到： 「心律調節器是義肢的一種，」

you're talking about something that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"

代表的意義已經不只是像 「我少了一條腿 」那樣，

it's, "if I don't have this, I can die."

而是：「如果沒有它，我會死。 」

And at that point, a prosthetic becomes a symbiotic relationship

此時，義肢和人體

形成了一種共生的關係。

with the human body.

And four of the smartest people that I've ever met --

我所見過最聰明的人當中， 有四個人──

埃德．博伊登、休．賀爾、 喬伊．雅各布森、鮑伯．蘭--

Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr, Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --

are working on a Center for Extreme Bionics.

他們都任職於 「極致仿生研究中心」。

你們現在可以看到 一件有趣的事情：

And the interesting thing of what you're seeing here is

these prosthetics now get integrated into the bone.

現在義肢已經整合到骨骼當中，

整合到皮膚當中，

They get integrated into the skin.

They get integrated into the muscle.

甚至整合到肌肉當中。

And one of the other sides of Ed

另一方面，埃德也開始思考：

如何利用光線或其他機制

is he's been thinking about how to connect the brain

using light or other mechanisms

將大腦和義肢

直接進行連結。

directly to things like these prosthetics.

And if you can do that,

如果你能夠做到這點，

then you can begin changing fundamental aspects of humanity.

那麼你就可以開始 改變人類的基本構造了。

So how quickly you react to something depends on the diameter of a nerve.

你對事物的反應速度 取決於神經的直徑，

And of course, if you have nerves that are external or prosthetic,

當然，如果你有體外神經或是義肢，

say with light or liquid metal,

比如說，利用光線或是液態金屬，

then you can increase that diameter

你可以增加神經的直徑，

根據理論，我們甚至可以 提升反應速度，

and you could even increase it theoretically to the point where,

到當你一看見槍口火光， 就可以躲開子彈。

as long as you could see the muzzle flash, you could step out of the way of a bullet.

Those are the order of magnitude of changes you're talking about.

這就是我們所謂的 級數的改變了。

This is a fourth sort of level of prosthetics.

這是屬於第四等級的義肢。

These are Phonak hearing aids,

這些是峰力公司製造的助聽器，

and the reason why these are so interesting

而它們讓人非常感興趣的原因是，

它們跨出了

is because they cross the threshold from where prosthetics are something

義肢是給「殘疾」人士使用的門檻，

for somebody who is "disabled"

and they become something that somebody who is "normal"

它們變成了「正常人」

也會想用的東西，

might want to actually have,

because what this prosthetic does, which is really interesting,

因為這個助聽器能做的事 真的很有趣。

is not only does it help you hear,

它不僅僅能夠幫助你聽見聲音，

還能幫助你專注聆聽，

you can focus your hearing,

so it can hear the conversation going on over there.

所以你能夠聽到遠處的對話。

你可以擁有超強的聽力。

You can have superhearing.

你可以聽到所有角度的聲音。 你可以聽到白噪音。

You can have hearing in 360 degrees. You can have white noise.

你可以用它錄音。 順便一提，它們還有手機的功能。

You can record, and oh, by the way, they also put a phone into this.

So this functions as your hearing aid and also as your phone.

所以它不僅是助聽器， 也是你的手機。

And at that point, somebody might actually want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.

到那個時候，有些人很可能 會自願去裝義肢了。

All of these thousands of loosely connected little pieces

這些成千上萬的 看似不相關的小零件，

正在整合當中，

are coming together,

所以是時候，我們要問：

and it's about time we ask the question,

在一、二個世紀內， 我們想如何改造人類？

how do we want to evolve human beings over the next century or two?

And for that we turn to a great philosopher

針對這個問題， 我們向一位偉大的哲學家求助，

who was a very smart man despite being a Yankee fan.

他是非常聰明的人， 雖然是個洋基球迷。

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

And Yogi Berra used to say, of course, that it's very tough to make predictions,

約吉．貝拉說， 預測不是一件簡單的事情，

特別是關於未來的預測。

especially about the future.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

所以，我們從開始就不先預測未來，

So instead of making a prediction about the future to begin with,

let's take what's happening in the present with people like Tony Atala,

讓我們看看當下發生在 托尼．阿塔拉身上的事，

who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.

他正在重新設計 30 多個的器官。

And maybe the ultimate prosthetic isn't having something external, titanium.

也許終極義肢已經不需要 金屬鈦這種外來的材料。

Maybe the ultimate prosthetic is take your own gene code,

也許終極義肢會用你自己的基因代碼，

remake your own body parts,

重新製造你身體的一些部分，

because that's a whole lot more effective than any kind of a prosthetic.

因為那比任何一種義肢的效果都要好。

But while you're at it, then you can take the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.

順便，你也可以看看

克雷格．文特爾 和翰姆．史密斯的作品。

And one of the things that we've been doing

我們一直以來想要做的事情之一，

is trying to figure out how to reprogram cells.

就是找出重新編碼細胞的方法。

And if you can reprogram a cell,

如果你可以重新編碼細胞，

then you can change the cells in those organs.

你就可以改變器官內的細胞。

So if you can change the cells in those organs,

所以，如果你可以改變 器官內的細胞，

maybe you make those organs more radiation-resistant.

也許你就能讓那些器官 更能抵抗輻射。

也許你就能使它們 吸收更多的氧氣。

Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.

也許你使它們更有效率地

Maybe you make them more efficient

過濾出你體內不需要的物質。

to filter out stuff that you don't want in your body.

And over the last few weeks, George Church has been in the news a lot

過去幾個禮拜， 喬治．丘奇經常上新聞。

因為他一直在談論一種 可編碼的細胞，

because he's been talking about taking one of these programmable cells

以及把整個人類基因組，

and inserting an entire human genome

into that cell.

插入那個細胞的事。

And once you can insert an entire human genome into a cell,

一旦你能夠將整個 人類基因組插入細胞當中，

then you begin to ask the question,

你就會開始問這樣的問題：

would you want to enhance any of that genome?

你要強化哪些基因呢？

Do you want to enhance a human body?

你想要強化人體嗎？

How would you want to enhance a human body?

你想怎樣強化人體呢？

那些部分的強化是合乎道德的？

Where is it ethical to enhance a human body

and where is it not ethical to enhance a human body?

而那些部位是不合乎道德的？

And all of a sudden, what we're doing

突然之間，我們正在做的，

is we've got this multidimensional chess board

好像是在一盤多度空間的棋盤，

where we can change human genetics by using viruses

在那裡我們可以透過病毒 來改變人類的基因，

to attack things like AIDS,

以攻擊愛滋這樣的疾病；

或者透過基因療法改變基因的序列，

or we can change the gene code through gene therapy

to do away with some hereditary diseases,

來去除一些遺傳疾病；

or we can change the environment,

或者，我們可以改變環境，

以及改變表觀基因組的基因；

and change the expression of those genes in the epigenome

and pass that on to the next generations.

然後傳給後代。

And all of a sudden, it's not just one little bit,

突然間，這些不再是 一點點微小的改變，

it's all these stacked little bits

而是全部的一點一滴累積起來，

that allow you to take little portions of it

你可選擇一些小部分，

until all the portions coming together

然後將選擇的部分集合起來，

你就變得非常不同了。

lead you to something that's very different.

And a lot of people are very scared by this stuff.

很多人對此感到害怕。

And it does sound scary, and there are risks to this stuff.

這聽起來確實很恐怖，也有風險。

為什麼我們還是想要這麼做呢？

So why in the world would you ever want to do this stuff?

Why would we really want to alter the human body

為什麼我們想要

從基本上改變人體呢？

in a fundamental way?

提供我們部分答案的

The answer lies in part

with Lord Rees,

是里斯男爵，

英國皇家天文學家，

astronomer royal of Great Britain.

And one of his favorite sayings is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.

他最喜歡說的一句話就是： 宇宙是百分之百惡劣的環境。

So what does that mean?

這句話是什麽意思？

It means if you take any one of your bodies at random,

意思就是，如果從人類當中

隨機選出一位，

drop it anywhere in the universe,

把他丟到宇宙的任何一個地方，

drop it in space, you die.

丟到外太空，你就會死。

Drop it on the Sun, you die.

丟到太陽上，你就會死。

丟到水星表面上，你也會死。

Drop it on the surface of Mercury, you die.

丟到超新星附近，還是死。

Drop it near a supernova, you die.

But fortunately, it's only about 80 percent effective.

但還好，這句話 只有 80% 是正確的。

So as a great physicist once said,

一位偉大的物理學家曾說過，

在生物界，小小的上游漩渦，

there's these little upstream eddies of biology

在混沌的熵流中創造了致序。

that create order in this rapid torrent of entropy.

就在宇宙分散能量的同時，

So as the universe dissipates energy,

這些上游漩渦創造了生物的秩序。

there's these upstream eddies that create biological order.

Now, the problem with eddies is,

然而，漩渦的問題是，

they tend to disappear.

它們會消失，

They shift. They move in rivers.

它們轉向，在河中移動。

And because of that, when an eddy shifts,

因此，當有漩渦移動的時候，

when the Earth becomes a snowball, when the Earth becomes very hot,

當地球變成雪球的時候， 或是變得炙熱的時候，

when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid, when you have supervolcanoes,

當地球被小行星撞擊的時候， 當超級火山爆發的時候，

when you have solar flares,

當太陽耀斑爆發的時候，

when you have potentially extinction-level events

當我們遇到潛在的毀滅事件的時候，

like the next election --

比如下屆總統選舉——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

then all of a sudden, you can have periodic extinctions.

突然間，我們就會遇到 周期性的地球大滅絕。

And by the way, that's happened five times on Earth,

順便提一下，這在地球上 已經發生過五次了，

and therefore it is very likely

因此，人類有朝一日

that the human species on Earth is going to go extinct someday.

很有可能在地球上消失。

Not next week,

不是下禮拜，

not next month,

不是下個月，

maybe in November, but maybe 10,000 years after that.

也許就在 11 月， 也許是那之後的一萬年。

As you're thinking of the consequence of that,

一旦考慮到人類滅絕的後果，

if you believe that extinctions are common and natural

如果你相信大滅絕是常見且自然的，

正常的而且會周期性地發生，

and normal and occur periodically,

it becomes a moral imperative to diversify our species.

那麼，將我們的物種多樣化 在道德上就變得勢在必行了。

它成為道德上的必要性的原因是，

And it becomes a moral imperative

因為如果我們不從基本上改善人體，

because it's going to be really hard to live on Mars

人類在火星上很難生存。

if we don't fundamentally modify the human body.

Right?

對嗎？

我們都來自一個細胞，

You go from one cell,

mom and dad coming together to make one cell,

由父母結合所產生的細胞，

in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.

經由分裂變成了 10 兆個細胞。

We don't know, if you change the gravity substantially,

我們不敢確定當引力有巨大變化時，

if the same thing will happen to create your body.

相同的過程是否還會 在我們的體內發生。

目前我們能確定的是，

We do know that if you expose our bodies as they currently are

如果你將自己的身體 暴露在強輻射下，

to a lot of radiation, we will die.

我們就會死。

所以當你在想這些時，

So as you're thinking of that, you have to really redesign things

光是去火星， 我們就得重新設計人體。

just to get to Mars.

Forget about the moons of Neptune or Jupiter.

更不用說去海王星或木星了。

借用一下尼古拉·卡爾達肖夫的話 （前蘇聯天體物理學家），

And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,

let's think about life in a series of scales.

讓我們將生命想成是一系列的文明，

So Life One civilization

在一級生命文明當中

is a civilization that begins to alter his or her looks.

人類可以改變長相。

我們已經這樣做了數千年了。

And we've been doing that for thousands of years.

You've got tummy tucks and you've got this and you've got that.

你可以做腹部整形， 整整這兒，整整那兒。

You alter your looks, and I'm told

你能改變你的外觀，我聽人家說

that not all of those alterations take place for medical reasons.

不是所有的整形都與醫療有關。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Seems odd.

好像有點怪。

A Life Two civilization is a different civilization.

二級生命文明就不同了。

A Life Two civilization alters fundamental aspects of the body.

二級生命文明可以改變 身體的基本特徵。

So you put human growth hormone in, the person grows taller,

你可以注射生長激素， 使人長的更高，

or you put x in and the person gets fatter or loses metabolism

或者使用某種藥物， 讓人變胖或降低新陳代謝，

or does a whole series of things,

或者進行一系列的改變，

but you're altering the functions in a fundamental way.

但你已經在基本上改變 人體的功能了。

要成為太陽系內的文明，

To become an intrasolar civilization,

we're going to have to create a Life Three civilization,

我們必須創造出三級生命文明，

and that looks very different from what we've got here.

這跟我們現在的世界完全不同。

Maybe you splice in Deinococcus radiodurans

也許你會被植入 「抗輻射奇異球菌」，

讓細胞暴露在大量輻射 之後仍可重新結合。

so that the cells can resplice after a lot of exposure to radiation.

Maybe you breathe by having oxygen flow through your blood

也許你的呼吸是由氧氣 直接進入血液當中，

instead of through your lungs.

而不是肺中。

But you're talking about really radical redesigns,

但是我們正在說的 是完全徹底的重新設計，

and one of the interesting things that's happened in the last decade

在過去十年間 發生了一件有趣的事情，

is we've discovered a whole lot of planets out there.

就是我們在宇宙中 發現了很多的行星。

And some of them may be Earth-like.

其中有些可能很像地球。

The problem is, if we ever want to get to these planets,

問題是，如果我們想要 到達那些行星，

最快的人造飛行器——

the fastest human objects --

Juno and Voyager and the rest of this stuff --

朱諾號和航海家太空船， 還有其它類似的東西——

take tens of thousands of years

也要花個數萬年，

to get from here to the nearest solar system.

才能到達離我們最近的恒星系。

So if you want to start exploring beaches somewhere else,

所以，如果你想在 其他星球的海灘上散步，

or you want to see two-sun sunsets,

或者想要看到兩個太陽的日落，

then you're talking about something that is very different,

那麼你在談的是非常不同的，

因為你必須以完全超乎想像的程度，

because you have to change the timescale and the body of humans

改變時間的維度和人體的構造。

in ways which may be absolutely unrecognizable.

這就是四級生命文明。

And that's a Life Four civilization.

Now, we can't even begin to imagine what that might look like,

雖然我們無法想像 我們會變成什麽樣子，

but we're beginning to get glimpses

但是我們已經能稍微瞥見

可以把我們帶往那種地方的設備了。

of instruments that might take us even that far.

And let me give you two examples.

我給各位舉兩個例子：

So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,

這位是我們出色的 弗洛伊德·瑞姆斯伯格，

and one of the things that Floyd's been doing

弗洛伊德一直在做的一件事就是

研究基礎生命化學。

is he's been playing with the basic chemistry of life.

So all life on this planet is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.

地球上所有生命都由 DNA 的 四個字母 ATCG 所組成，

All bacteria, all plants, all animals, all humans, all cows,

所有的細菌、植物、 動物、人類、牛，

everything else.

每一樣都由 ATCG 組成。

And what Floyd did is he changed out two of those base pairs,

弗洛伊德做的研究就是 改變其中的兩組鹼基對，

so it's ATXY.

變成 ATXY 的組合。

And that means that you now have a parallel system to make life,

意思就是，你也有一個 可以創造生命的平行系統，

to make babies, to reproduce, to evolve,

你可以造出小生命、 可以繁殖、進化，

that doesn't mate with most things on Earth

但不能與地球上大多數的生命配對，

或者說地球上根本沒有生物可配對。

or in fact maybe with nothing on Earth.

Maybe you make plants that are immune to all bacteria.

也許你可以製造出 對所有細菌免疫的植物。

Maybe you make plants that are immune to all viruses.

也許你能製造出 對所有病毒免疫的植物。

But why is that so interesting?

為什麼這讓人感興趣呢？

這意味著，人類不是 唯一的解決方案。

It means that we are not a unique solution.

It means you can create alternate chemistries to us

也就是說，你能夠在我們體內 造出不同的化學成分，

that could be chemistries adaptable to a very different planet

以能夠適應不同星球上的生活，

我們仍然能創造生命、繁衍後代。

that could create life and heredity.

第二個實驗，

The second experiment,

or the other implication of this experiment,

或者說是這個實驗的另一個含義，

is that all of you, all life is based on 20 amino acids.

就是我們所有人，所有的生命 都是由 20 種氨基酸所組成。

If you don't substitute two amino acids,

如果你不替換其中兩個，

比如，你不用 ATXY， 而是用 ATCG + XY，

if you don't say ATXY, if you say ATCG + XY,

then you go from 20 building blocks to 172,

那麼，你就能夠從 20 種 氨基酸增長到 172 種，

and all of a sudden you've got 172 building blocks of amino acids

突然間，我們就有了 172 種 基礎氨基酸的模型，

to build life-forms in very different shapes.

可以建造出完全不同的生命形式。

The second experiment to think about is a really weird experiment

第二個實驗，是在中國做的，

that's been taking place in China.

一個非常詭異的實驗。

So this guy has been transplanting hundreds of mouse heads.

這傢伙已經換植過 上百隻老鼠的頭了。

Right?

是不是？

And why is that an interesting experiment?

為什麽這是個有趣的實驗呢？

Well, think of the first heart transplants.

回想一下，當第一顆心臟被移植時。

醫生以前常做一件事，

One of the things they used to do

就是把器官捐贈者的 太太或女兒叫過來，

is they used to bring in the wife or the daughter of the donor

so the donee could tell the doctors,

然後醫生問被捐贈的人，

"Do you recognize this person? Do you love this person?

「你認識這個人嗎？你愛她嗎？

Do you feel anything for this person?"

你看到她，有什麼感覺呢？」

今天，我們會把這當笑話看。

We laugh about that today.

We laugh because we know the heart is a muscle,

我們笑的原因，是因為我們知道 心臟只是一塊肌肉，

but for hundreds of thousands of years, or tens of thousands of years,

但是，在幾百、幾千或幾萬年前，

"I gave her my heart. She took my heart. She broke my heart."

「我把心獻給了她， 她偷走了我的心，她讓我心碎。」

We thought this was emotion

我們把心臟當成情感的來源，

and we thought maybe emotions were transplanted with the heart. Nope.

我們以為情感會跟隨心臟 一同被移植，但並沒有。

但如果是換成大腦呢？

So how about the brain?

這實驗有兩種可能的結果。

Two possible outcomes to this experiment.

If you can get a mouse

如果你拿一隻老鼠來，

that is functional,

仍活著的，

then you can see,

那你就能觀察到，

牠的新大腦是否一片空白？

is the new brain a blank slate?

And boy, does that have implications.

還是，這個大腦還有原有的意識？

第二個選擇：

Second option:

the new mouse recognizes Minnie Mouse.

新的老鼠還記得牠的戀愛對象。

The new mouse remembers what it's afraid of,

新的老鼠還記得牠害怕什麽，

remembers how to navigate the maze,

記得如何走出迷宮，

and if that is true,

若是果真如此，

你就能夠移植你的記憶和意識。

then you can transplant memory and consciousness.

然後就引發一個有趣的問題，

And then the really interesting question is,

if you can transplant this, is the only input-output mechanism

如果你可以移植這個， 那是人體唯一

對於頭以下的身體的輸出輸入機制，

this down here?

Or could you transplant that consciousness into something

或者說，我們能否將意識轉入到一個

完全不同的東西裡？

that would be very different,

讓它能夠在宇宙中長遠留存，

that would last in space,

that would last tens of thousands of years,

留存數萬年？

that would be a completely redesigned body

那會是一個重新設計的身體，

that could hold consciousness for a long, long period of time?

可以將意識留存一段很長的時間嗎？

讓我們重新回到第一個問題：

And let's come back to the first question:

Why would you ever want to do that?

到底為什麼我們想要這麼做呢？

Well, I'll tell you why.

好吧，讓我來告訴你原因。

Because this is the ultimate selfie.

因為這張是我們的終極自拍照。

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

This is taken from six billion miles away,

從六十億英哩的外太空拍的，

那是地球。

and that's Earth.

And that's all of us.

我們全部人就這麼個小白點。

And if that little thing goes, all of humanity goes.

如果那個小白點不見了， 人類就不見了。

And the reason you want to alter the human body

我們之所以想要改造人體，

is because you eventually want a picture that says,

是因為我們最終想要 在一張照片寫著，

that's us, and that's us,

這是我們，這是我們，

and that's us,

這也是我們，

because that's the way humanity survives long-term extinction.

因為這是人類延續生命 避免被滅絕的方法。

And that's the reason why it turns out

這就是為什麼，

it's actually unethical not to evolve the human body

不進化人體才是真的不道德，

even though it can be scary, even though it can be challenging,

即使進化可能很可怕， 即使進化可能很困難，

但進化可以讓我們探索、生存，

but it's what's going to allow us to explore, live

and get to places we can't even dream of today,

到達當今無法想像的地方，

but which our great-great-great-great- grandchildren might someday.

但也許我們的曾曾曾曾孫子 有朝一日才能辦到。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）