Nate Silver: How does race affect votes?

翻译人员: Jing Zhong 校对人员: Yvonne Fu

I want to talk about the election.

我想谈谈这次的大选。

For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters

这是美国历史上第一次，多数的白人

voted for an African-American candidate for President.

把票投给了一个非洲裔总统候选人。

And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.

而实际上贝拉克·奥巴马的确表现的很好。

He won 375 electoral votes.

他赢得了375张选举人的投票。

And he won about 70 million popular votes

而且他还赢得了大约7000万的民众选票。

more than any other presidential candidate --

比其他任何的总统候选人的票数都要多，

of any race, of any party -- in history.

无论是来自任何政党，任何种族。

If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --

如果对比一下奥巴马与四年前约翰·克里的表现--

Democrats really like seeing this transition here,

民主党人还真是很高兴看到这一转变，

where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --

几乎每一个州都变得比以前更蓝了，变得更民主了--

even states Obama lost, like out west,

即使是在奥巴马没有赢的那些州，像是除西部之外的那些。

those states became more blue.

那些州也变的更蓝了。

In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere

在南部地区，东北地区，几乎到处都是

but with a couple of exceptions here and there.

但是各个地方也有那么几个例外。

One exception is in Massachusetts.

一个例外是在马萨诸塞州。

That was John Kerry's home state.

那个州是约翰·克里的家乡。

No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.

奥巴马在那的表现不如克里也没什么好奇怪的。

Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,

或者是在亚利桑那州，约翰·麦凯恩的家乡，

Obama didn't have much improvement.

奥巴马也没有太大的进展。

But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.

但是在美国也有这样一部分差不多在中部的地区。

This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.

像是阿肯色州，田纳西州，俄克拉荷马州，西弗吉尼亚州这类的地方。

Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --

如果你现在看一下96年，比尔·克林顿，

the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,

最后一位取得胜利的民主党人，他在96年的表现，

you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,

就在这你会看到美国的这个地区巨大的差异--

the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:

像是阿巴拉契亚山脉，奥索卡山脉这样的高原地区，我是这么叫的。

20 or 30 point swings

二十或三十点的波动

from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did

自从比尔·克林顿在96年的表现到奥巴马的表现

in 2008.

在2008年里。

Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.

是的，比尔·克林顿确实是来自阿肯色州的，但是这些也都是非常非常巨大的差异。

So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.

所以，当我们想到像美国阿肯色州这样的地方的时候，你们就了解了吧。

There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"

有一本叫《堪萨斯州是怎么了？》的书

But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.

但问题就是--奥巴马在堪萨斯州的表现相对来说还是不错的。

He lost badly but every Democrat does.

他确实输的很惨，但是每个民主党人也都会输。

He lost no worse than most people do.

他输的其实还不像大部分人那么惨。

But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?

不过是呀，阿肯色州又是怎么了？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.

而当我们想到阿肯色州的时候我们会倾向于有一种很消极的概念。

We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.

（原话起）“我们会想到一群乡下人”（原话止）拿着枪。

And we think people like this probably don't want to vote

而我们觉得像这样的人大概是不会想把票投给

for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.

像这样的长相，名字叫贝拉克·奥巴马的人的。

We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?

我们认为这是种族问题。而这样想公平吗？

Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?

我们是不是有点在侮蔑来自阿肯色州乃至美国这个地区的人？

And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.

而答案是，至少一部分是公平的。

We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that

我们知道种族确实是一个因素，而我们明白这个道理的原因

is because we asked those people.

是因为我们询问了那些人。

Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted

其实我们没有真的去问他们，只是当他们组织

exit polls in every state,

每个州投票之后的民意调查的时候

in 37 states, out of the 50,

在50个州中的37个州

they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.

他们相当直接的询问了一个关于种族的问题。

They asked this question.

他们问的是这个问题：

In deciding your vote for President today, was the race

在你做出投票决定的时候时，候选人的种族是

of the candidate a factor?

一个影响因素吗？

We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;

我们找的是那些回答：“是的，种族是一个影响因素；

moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"

而且在我的决定中是一个重要的因素。”的人

and people who voted for John McCain

而为约翰·麦凯恩投票的那些人

as a result of that factor,

结果就是因为那个因素，

maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.

也许还夹杂着其他的因素，也许只是这一个。

We're looking for this behavior among white voters

我们在白种人投票者中寻找着有这样看法的人，

or, really, non-black voters.

或者实际上就是那些非黑人选民。

So you see big differences in different parts

所以你们可以看到美国不同的地区都是有很大的差异的

of the country on this question.

在这个问题上。

In Louisiana, about one in five white voters

在路易斯安那州，大约5个白种人投票者中就有一个

said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama

说：“是的，我投票反对贝拉克·奥巴马的很大原因之一

is because he was an African-American."

就是因为他是一个非裔美国人。

If those people had voted for Obama,

如果那些人当初把票投给了奥巴马，

even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.

即使只有一半，奥巴马都会很有把握地赢得路易斯安那州。

Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.

我觉得单子上面你们看到的这些名次靠上的州都是一样的情况。

Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"

同时，还有加利福尼亚州和纽约州。我们可以说：”哦，我们真是很受启迪呀，“

but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this

但是你们知道，肯定这个的认可度是相当低的

admitted, I suppose,

我猜想，

manifestation of racially-based voting.

那些表明了建立在人种基础上的投票。

Here is the same data on a map.

这里有一张地图上显示着同样的数据。

You kind of see the relationship between

你们大概可以看到

the redder states of where more people responded and said,

那些更红一些的州之间的关系，在那些地方更多的人回答说：

"Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."

”是的，奥巴马的种族之前对我来说是一个难题。“

You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.

你们看，把这张地图与96年的相比，大家会看到这有一个重叠的地方。

This really seems to explain

这个似乎真的解释了

why Barack Obama did worse

为什么在美国的同一个地方，

in this one part of the country.

奥巴马的表现更糟糕。

So we have to ask why.

所以我们要问问为什么。

Is racism predictable in some way?

是不是种族歧视在某种程度上是可以预测的？

Is there something driving this?

是不是有什么东西导致了这样的结果？

Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas

是不是只是阿肯色州有一些我们不能理解的古怪的念头

that we don't understand, and Kentucky?

还有肯塔基州？

Or are there more systematic factors at work?

还是有更多系统性的因素在起作用？

And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.

所以让我们来看看这一群不同的可变因素。

These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --

这些东西都是经济学家和政治学家们常看的--

things like income, and religion, education.

像是收入，宗教和受教育程度。

Which of these seem to drive

这些里面哪些看起来更像是导致

this manifestation of racism

种族歧视的因素

in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?

在11月4日这样一个美国做出重大决定的日子里出现的呢？（大选）

And there are a couple of these that have

而其中的一些因素

strong predictive relationships,

预示着强烈的关联性--

one of which is education,

其中之一就是受教育程度。

where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling

你们看到那些平均每个成年人受教育年数最少的州

per adult are in red,

都是红色的，

and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,

而你们看到美国的阿巴拉契亚山脉这个地区，

is less educated. It's just a fact.

受教育程度是很低的。这确实是个事实。

And you see the relationship there

然后你可以看到它们的联系

with the racially-based voting patterns.

就是都是建立在种族基础上的投票模式。

The other variable that's important is

另一个很重要的变数是

the type of neighborhood that you live in.

你生活的地方周围的邻居都是什么样的。

States that are more rural --

那些更乡村化一些的州，

even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --

甚至一些像是新罕布什尔和缅因这样的州，

they exhibit a little bit of

他们也表现出了一点点

this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.

倾向于这种建立在种族基础上的投票而反对奥巴马。

So it's the combination of these two things: it's education

所以这两样东西是联合起来的。

and the type of neighbors that you have,

其实就是你的受教育程度和周围邻居的类型，

which we'll talk about more in a moment.

我们一会儿再具体的谈一谈。

And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee

关于州的这个事，像是阿肯色和田纳西州

is that they're both very rural,

就是因为他们都是非常乡村化的州，

and they are educationally impoverished.

而且他们的教育也很落后。

So yes, racism is predictable.

所以种族偏见确实是可以预料到的。

These things, among maybe other variables,

这些因素，也许其他的可变因素也有涉及，

but these things seem to predict it.

但是看上去这些因素更有预见性。

We're going to drill down a little bit more now,

我们现在再深入的挖掘一下。

into something called the General Social Survey.

General Social Survey（社会调查）

This is conducted by the University of Chicago

是由芝加哥大学发起的，

every other year.

隔年会有一次。

And they ask a series of really interesting questions.

而且他们会问一系列非常有意思的问题。

In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions

在2000年他们的问题非常独特有趣

about racial attitudes.

是关于对于种族的看法的。

One simple question they asked is,

他们问了的一个很简单的问题就是，

"Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"

“你的邻居里有异族的吗？”

We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.

我们可以看到不同类型的群体结果也是相当不同的。

In cites, about 80 percent of people

在城市里，大约80%的人

have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,

认为周围的邻居有一些是其他种族的。

but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.

但是在乡村这个群体里，大约只有30%。

Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.

很有可能是因为如果你住在农场里，你周围就不会有太多的邻居，就是这样了。

But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people

但是无论如何，你跟那些

who are unlike you.

异族的人都没有太多的互动。

So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey

所以我们现在要做的就是把那些白人都包括到调查中

and split them between those who have black neighbors --

然后再把他们分成周围的邻居里有黑人

or, really, some neighbor of another race --

或者是一些其他种族的人。

and people who have only white neighbors.

和周围的邻居里只有白人。

And we see in some variables

而我们看到的一些

in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.

有关政治态度方面的可变因素其结果也没有太大的差异。

This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.

这个是八年前的，那时的共和党人更多一些。

But you see Democrats versus Republican,

但是你们看民主党与共和党相比，

not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.

建立在你有什么样的邻居基础上的差异也不是很大。

And even some questions about race -- for example

而且甚至一些关于种族的问题，例如

affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,

那个积极区别对待政策，有点带有政治性的问题，

a policy question about race, if you will --

如果你愿意的话也可以把它看作是一个关于种族的政策性问题。

not much difference here.

在这也没有太大的差异。

Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.

坦白的说积极区别对待政策在白人投票者中并不是很受欢迎，基本是这个样子。

But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods

但是无论是周围有黑人邻居还是周围邻居种族都很单一的人

feel no differently about it really.

其实都不会感到异样。

But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,

然而如果再深入的探寻一下，如果你愿意的话可以再私人化一些，

"Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"

“你赞成禁止异族通婚这个法律吗？”

There is a big difference.

结果的差异非常大。

People who don't have neighbors of a different race

那些邻居中没有其他种族

are about twice as likely

而反对异族通婚的人

to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.

大约是那些邻居中有其他种族的人的二倍。

Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.

这个其实就是建立在你的近邻的基础之上。

And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,

而且与此同时，还是在1996年而非2000年的那个同样的调查中，他们问道

"Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"

“你们是不是不会投票给一个合格的黑人总统？”

You see people without neighbors who are African-American who

你们会发现那些没有非裔美国邻居的人

were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."

更有可能会说：”那样会给我带来麻烦。“

So it's really not even about urban versus rural.

所以这个问题真的也不能说是城市对乡村的问题。

It's about who you live with.

其实就看你跟什么样的人住在一起。

Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by

种族歧视其实是可以预见的。它是可以通过

interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

互相影响或者周围缺少跟你种族不同的人从而预见到结果。

So if you want to address it,

所以如果想解决这个问题，

the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.

咱们的目标应该就是促进不同种族之间的交流。

I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,

我想我这里的几个非常显而易见的

ideas for maybe how to do that.

想法也许可以让咱们去做到那样。

I'm a big fan of cities.

我是个城市的狂热者。

Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,

尤其是对那些多样化而且比较平衡

and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.

可以支持不同的种族划分和不同的收入人群的城市。

I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,

我觉得那些城市它们可以在你以往的日常活动的基础之上给你带来更多的人际关系网，

the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.

和一些比较随意的互动。

But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.

但是当然了不是每一个人都想住在城市，而且肯定也不会像是纽约那样的城市。

So we can think more about things like street grids.

所以我们可以多想想像这样棋盘式街道布局之类的东西。

This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.

这是我长大的地方密歇根州的东兰辛市周围临近的情况。

It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.

这是一个传统的中西部社区，它代表着街道的布局都是整整齐齐的格子状的。

You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.

你的邻居，周围的树木和你走的街道都是实实在在的。

And you interact a lot with your neighbors --

而且你会跟邻居有很多交流和互动，

people you like, people you might not know.

还有那些你喜欢的或者你也许不认识的人。

And as a result it's a very tolerant community,

所以结果这样的社区接受外来事物的能力非常高，

which is different, I think, than something like this,

起码我认为比像是

which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,

伊利诺斯州的绍姆堡这样的地方高很多。

where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac

在绍姆堡每一小片房子周围都会有死胡同

and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.

和类似于星巴克这种不用下车便可以得到服务的地方。

I think that actually this type of urban design,

我觉得其实像这种在70和80年代

which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --

就变的很普遍的市区内的设计形式，

I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming

我认为其实跟它还是有一定关系的而且在

more conservative under Ronald Reagan.

罗纳德·里根的领导下，美国变得更加保守了。

But also here is another idea we have --

但是同时，这里还有另一个想法--

is an intercollegiate exchange program

那就是一个学院间的交换项目

where you have students going from New York abroad.

你可以吸取来自纽约的学生，

But frankly there are enough differences within the country now

但是老实说现在国内的差异已经够大的了

where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,

也许你可以带着一帮纽约大学的孩子

have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,

去阿肯色大学学习一个学期，

and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.

而反之亦然。我们在高中这个阶段就要去开展它。

Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee

其实也许那些在阿肯色或田纳西州上学的人

and might never interact in a positive affirmative way

永远都不会跟

with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.

那些来自国内其他地区或其他种族群体的人有非常积极正面的交流。

I think part of the education variable we talked about before

我觉得我们之前谈过的在教育这个可变因素中一部分

is the networking experience you get when you go to college

就是当你去上大学的时候你所能得到的人际交往的经验

where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.

你可能确实会遇到那些你并不怎么会去交流的其他种族的人

But the point is, this is all good news,

但是关键是，这些其实都是很有益处的。

because when something is predictable,

因为当一些东西是可以预测的时候，

it is what I call designable.

那么我就会说它是可计划性的。

You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,

你就可以开始去想解决问题的方法。

even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.

即使这个问题带有潜移默化的伤害，即使它像种族问题一样难处理。

If we understand the root causes of the behavior

如果我们理解导致这一行为的根本原因

and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,

和那些可以揭示或不可以揭示它本身的因素，

we can start to design solutions to it.

那么我们就可以设计解决方案了。

So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.

那么这些就是我所要说的了。非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）