Nate Silver: How does race affect votes?

譯者: Sarah Sau 審譯者: Brenda Yuan

I want to talk about the election.

我要跟大家聊聊有關選舉

For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters

美國有史以來，大多數白人選民

voted for an African-American candidate for President.

首次投票給一位非洲裔候選人

And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.

事實上，歐巴馬取得不錯的成績

He won 375 electoral votes.

獲得了375張選舉人票

And he won about 70 million popular votes

與此同時，還獲得7,000萬張民眾選票

more than any other presidential candidate --

是歷屆總統選舉中，獲得票數最高

of any race, of any party -- in history.

比任何族裔和黨派的候選人都要出色

If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --

比起歐巴馬與四年前凱利的選舉

Democrats really like seeing this transition here,

民主黨應該很欣然看到當中的改變

where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --

幾乎每個州，對民主黨的支持度均上升

even states Obama lost, like out west,

就連歐巴馬輸掉的州份，比如美國西岸

those states became more blue.

也是如此

In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere

相同情形也出現在南部和東北部

but with a couple of exceptions here and there.

當然，也有一些例外

One exception is in Massachusetts.

其中一個例外是麻薩諸塞州

That was John Kerry's home state.

那是凱利的家鄉

No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.

理所當然，歐巴馬的成績不可能勝過凱利

Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,

還有亞利桑那州，那是對手麥肯的家鄉

Obama didn't have much improvement.

歐巴馬很難有所突破

But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.

在中部地區也有類似情況，如

This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.

阿肯色州、田納西州、俄克拉荷馬州、西佛吉尼亞州

Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --

比較1996年克林頓

the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,

上一位代表民主黨獲勝總統的票選

you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,

會發現驚人的改變

the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:

地區如：阿巴拉契亞山區(Appalachinas)、歐扎克斯(Ozarks)、高原地區

20 or 30 point swings

有20至30點的調整

from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did

這是從1996克林頓到歐巴馬

in 2008.

2008年

Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.

雖然阿肯色州是克林頓的家鄉，但當中的差距未免也太大！

So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.

讓我們探討一下地區，如阿肯色州

There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"

有本書叫《 堪薩斯州到底怎麼了？》

But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.

但問題是，歐巴馬在堪薩斯州的成績不算差

He lost badly but every Democrat does.

他雖然輸了這個州，但每位民主黨候選人都這樣

He lost no worse than most people do.

他沒有不如他人

But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?

所以囉，阿肯色州到底怎麼了？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.

想到阿肯色州，難免有些負面的想法

We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.

一群拿著槍的鄉下人

And we think people like this probably don't want to vote

想也知道這些人不會支持

for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.

歐巴馬這類型，甚至聽到這名字就不想理了

We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?

歸根究底，就是種族問題在作怪

Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?

如此形容阿肯色州人，是否太武斷了？

And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.

其實不然，起碼有一部份說得對

We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that

種族問題的確有影響，如此說

is because we asked those people.

是因為有經過查證

Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted

雖然沒有直接詢問原因

exit polls in every state,

但曾在投票站

in 37 states, out of the 50,

50個州中，就訪問了30個州

they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.

有關種族的問題

They asked this question.

內容是

In deciding your vote for President today, was the race

在今天的總統選舉中，候選人的種族背景

of the candidate a factor?

是否考量因素之一？

We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;

我們特別針對承認候選人種族背景

moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"

或多或少影響到投票決定的選民

and people who voted for John McCain

尤其支持麥肯

as a result of that factor,

其真正原因

maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.

或許只有一個原因，有或許更多

We're looking for this behavior among white voters

特別著重白人選民

or, really, non-black voters.

喔，正確說是非黑人選民做研究

So you see big differences in different parts

大家可以看到，差距其實很大

of the country on this question.

尤其訪問者來自不同地區

In Louisiana, about one in five white voters

路易斯安那州，每五個白人選民，就有一位

said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama

承認不選歐巴馬

is because he was an African-American."

因為他是非裔美國人

If those people had voted for Obama,

假如這群選民原意支持歐巴馬

even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.

即使只有一半，也必成歐巴馬的囊中物

Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.

同樣道理，可以用於以上州份

Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"

再看看加州、紐約，所謂見過世面的州份

but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this

相對受種族影響較少

admitted, I suppose,

起碼我如此認為

manifestation of racially-based voting.

這是顯而易見

Here is the same data on a map.

地圖顯示同樣的數據

You kind of see the relationship between

更容易看出當中的關係

the redder states of where more people responded and said,

紅色州份就有很多人承認

"Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."

介意歐巴馬的種族背景

You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.

再對照1996年，看到當中的重疊嗎？

This really seems to explain

這就解釋了

why Barack Obama did worse

為甚麼歐巴馬未能獲得某些選民支持

in this one part of the country.

尤其是這些區域

So we have to ask why.

為甚麼有這樣的現象？

Is racism predictable in some way?

種族歧視有跡可尋嗎？

Is there something driving this?

又是甚麼因素致使種族歧視？

Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas

難道這些怪現象只發生在阿肯色州和肯德基州？

that we don't understand, and Kentucky?

讓人難以理解

Or are there more systematic factors at work?

還是有更多其他原因？

And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.

就讓我們深入地了解一下

These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --

經濟學家和政治學家早已對此展開調查

things like income, and religion, education.

收入多寡、宗教信仰、教育程度等等

Which of these seem to drive

究竟那項導致

this manifestation of racism

種族歧視

in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?

試圖在11月4日選舉中找出答案

And there are a couple of these that have

當中有幾個因素

strong predictive relationships,

扮演著舉足輕重的影響地位

one of which is education,

其中一個便是教育程度

where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling

大家可以看到教育程度較低的州份

per adult are in red,

以紅色顯示

and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,

可以看到阿巴拉契亞山區

is less educated. It's just a fact.

教育程度較低

And you see the relationship there

教育程度直接影響選民

with the racially-based voting patterns.

是否以種族背景為選舉的考慮因素

The other variable that's important is

另一個影響選民的重要因素

the type of neighborhood that you live in.

就是左鄰右舍

States that are more rural --

比較鄉下的州份

even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --

如罕布什爾州和緬因

they exhibit a little bit of

也有如此現象

this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.

因為歐巴馬的種族背景，不願支持

So it's the combination of these two things: it's education

因此，兩個因素影響了結果。那就是教育程度

and the type of neighbors that you have,

還有左鄰右舍

which we'll talk about more in a moment.

稍後我會再詳細分析

And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee

阿肯色州和田納西州就是鮮明的例子

is that they're both very rural,

都是鄉下地方

and they are educationally impoverished.

居民所受的教育也較貧乏

So yes, racism is predictable.

所以說種族歧視是有跡可尋

These things, among maybe other variables,

透過以上這些，再加其他因素

but these things seem to predict it.

幫助我們了解

We're going to drill down a little bit more now,

現在，讓我們再深入看看

into something called the General Social Survey.

社會概況調查

This is conducted by the University of Chicago

由芝加哥大學發起

every other year.

每隔一年舉辦一次

And they ask a series of really interesting questions.

當中包括一系列有趣問題

In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions

2000年的調查

about racial attitudes.

特別針對種族觀念

One simple question they asked is,

其中一個簡單的問題

"Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"

「在所居住的社區，有沒有其他種族」？

We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.

不同社區所得到的答案也迥然不同

In cites, about 80 percent of people

在市區，80％受訪者

have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,

表示有其他種族的鄰居

but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.

在鄉村地區，只有約30％

Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.

或許是因為鄉村，農場遼闊，沒有太多鄰居

But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people

因此沒機會與背景不同的人來往

who are unlike you.

尤其那種跟自己完全不同

So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey

現在，我們要一份調查

and split them between those who have black neighbors --

將白人分成兩組，一組是有黑人鄰居

or, really, some neighbor of another race --

喔，正確說法是與其他種族為鄰

and people who have only white neighbors.

另一組則只有白人鄰居

And we see in some variables

仔細分析數據

in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.

所持政治立場，兩組分別並不大

This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.

雖說這是八年前的數據，較多人支持共和黨

But you see Democrats versus Republican,

比較民主黨和共和黨

not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.

與誰為鄰，並沒有直接影響政治立場

And even some questions about race -- for example

在針對族裔的調查，例如

affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,

一些如權益平等促進法的問題

a policy question about race, if you will --

此類有關政治的問題

not much difference here.

答案也沒有太大分別

Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.

坦白說，權益平等促進法在白人選民中，並不受歡迎

But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods

有黑人的社區，或單一種族的社區

feel no differently about it really.

則沒有太大的分別

But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,

不過，如果更深入，針對個人調查

"Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"

問題如「是否支持反異族通婚法？」

There is a big difference.

所得的答案則完全不同

People who don't have neighbors of a different race

來自單一種族社區的民眾

are about twice as likely

對這問題的支持率是另一組的兩倍

to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.

反對異族通婚

Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.

這單單只是受鄰居影響

And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,

1996年，也做過相同調查

"Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"

問：「是否支持非裔美國人當選總統？」

You see people without neighbors who are African-American who

調查發現，那些未曾與非裔為鄰

were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."

多會表示不願意支持

So it's really not even about urban versus rural.

所以說，這根本不是攸關城市與鄉村

It's about who you live with.

與誰為鄰才是關鍵

Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by

種族歧視是有跡可尋

interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

透過所接觸的人，甚至交友狀況而得知

So if you want to address it,

簡單來說

the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.

我們的目標就是促進各種族互動

I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,

我心中有一些想法

ideas for maybe how to do that.

希望能推動這個目標

I'm a big fan of cities.

我非常熱愛城市

Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,

尤其我們的城市如此多元化

and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.

融匯了各族裔群體，各社會階層

I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,

城市裡有很多機會擴展社交圈

the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.

每天都可以接觸不同的人

But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.

當然，不是每個人都喜歡住城市，尤其是紐約

So we can think more about things like street grids.

讓我們看看這類如棋盤式格局的街道

This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.

我在芝加哥的東蘭莘長大

It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.

一個典型中西部社區，街道都是整整齊齊

You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.

可以看到實實在在的社區、樹木、街道

And you interact a lot with your neighbors --

在這裡，可以跟許多鄰居來往、互動

people you like, people you might not know.

儘管有些人我們未必喜歡，甚至不了解

And as a result it's a very tolerant community,

卻是一個可包容彼此的社區

which is different, I think, than something like this,

另外一種城市就不一樣

which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,

如伊利諾州的紹姆堡

where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac

每家都有私家路

and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.

甚至大到可容納一家星巴客等等

I think that actually this type of urban design,

這類社區

which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --

在70、80年代特別流行

I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming

我個人認為美國會變得

more conservative under Ronald Reagan.

如此保守，是在雷根總統任職的時候

But also here is another idea we have --

還有另一個想法

is an intercollegiate exchange program

就是交換生計畫

where you have students going from New York abroad.

例如將紐約學生送往海外

But frankly there are enough differences within the country now

老實說，就算在美國，各州縣差距也很大

where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,

或許可以將紐約大學生

have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,

送到阿肯色大學

and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.

反之亦然。還可以將此延伸至高中

Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee

其實，生長在阿肯色州或田納西州的學生

and might never interact in a positive affirmative way

可能從未有機會與其他種族交流

with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.

尤其是來自另一個地區或種族

I think part of the education variable we talked about before

教育的其中一個目的

is the networking experience you get when you go to college

就是在大學時期建立人際網絡

where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.

與不同種族的同學交流互動

But the point is, this is all good news,

總結，這可是一個好消息

because when something is predictable,

事情有跡可循

it is what I call designable.

就代表有相關對策

You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,

大家可以開始想想有甚麼解決方法

even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.

儘管不容易解決，如種族歧視，非常棘手

If we understand the root causes of the behavior

但如果我們能夠揪出問題的根源

and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,

將之抽絲剝繭

we can start to design solutions to it.

必能找出相對應辦法

So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.

以上是我想與大家分享的。謝謝！

(Applause)

(掌聲)