Nate Silver: How does race affect votes?

38,927 views ・ 2009-04-24

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Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:18
I want to talk about the election.
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Želim pričati o izborima.
00:21
For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters
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Prvi puta u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, grupa većinski bijelih glasača
00:24
voted for an African-American candidate for President.
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glasala je za Afro-Američkog kandidata za Predsjednika.
00:27
And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.
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I ustvari Barack Obama je postigao dobar uspjeh.
00:29
He won 375 electoral votes.
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Osvojio je 375 elektorskih glasova.
00:31
And he won about 70 million popular votes
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I dobio je oko 70 milijuna glasova popularnosti više
00:34
more than any other presidential candidate --
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od bilo kojeg drugog predsjedničkog kandidata,
00:36
of any race, of any party -- in history.
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bilo koje rase, bilo koje stranke, u povijesti.
00:39
If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --
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Ako usporedimo uspjeh Obame s uspjehom Johna Kerrya četiri godine prije --
00:43
Democrats really like seeing this transition here,
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Demokrati stvarno vole vidjeti ovaj prijelaz,
00:46
where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --
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gdje gotovo svaka država postaje više plava, postaje više demokratska ---
00:50
even states Obama lost, like out west,
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čak i u državama u kojima je Obama izgubio, kao na zapadu.
00:52
those states became more blue.
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Te države postaju više plave.
00:54
In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere
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Na jugu, sjeveroistoku, gotovo svugdje
00:57
but with a couple of exceptions here and there.
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ali uz pokoju iznimku tu i tamo.
01:00
One exception is in Massachusetts.
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Jedna iznimka je Massachusetts.
01:02
That was John Kerry's home state.
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To je rodna zemlja Johna Kerrya.
01:04
No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.
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Nije veliko iznenađenje, Obama nije mogao proći bolje od Kerrya ondje.
01:06
Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,
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Ili u Arizoni, koja je dom Johna McCaina,
01:08
Obama didn't have much improvement.
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Obama nije imao neko poboljšanje.
01:10
But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.
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Ali postoji i ovaj dio zemlje, negdje u sredini regije ovdje.
01:12
This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.
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Ova regija koja obuhvaća Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahomu i Zapadnu Virginiu.
01:16
Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --
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Ako pogledate '96, Billa Clintona,
01:18
the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,
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posljednjeg Demokrata koji je zaista pobijedio, kako i je '96,
01:21
you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,
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vidi se velika razlika u ovom ovdje djelu zemlje --
01:24
the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:
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regija planina Appalachian, Ozarka, regija visoravni, kako ju ja zovem.
01:28
20 or 30 point swings
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20 ili 30 bodova mijenja se
01:30
from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did
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od rezultata Billa Clintona '96 do rezultata Obame
01:32
in 2008.
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u 2008.
01:34
Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.
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Da, Bill Clinton je bio iz Arkansasa, ali ovo su vrlo vrlo profinjene razlike.
01:39
So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.
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Pa. dok razmišljamo o dijelovima zemlje poput Arkansasa, znate.
01:41
There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"
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Napisana je knjiga: Što nije u redu s Kanzasom?
01:44
But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.
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Ali pravo pitanje -- Obama je prošao relativno dobro u Kanzasu.
01:47
He lost badly but every Democrat does.
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Izgubio je ali svaki Demokrat izgubi.
01:49
He lost no worse than most people do.
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Izgubio je ne puno gore od ostalih.
01:51
But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?
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Ali stvarno, što nije u redu s Arkansasom?
01:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:56
And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.
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I kad razmišljamo o Arkansasu često imamo poprilično negativne konotacije.
01:59
We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.
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Razmišljamo o hrpi seljaka, navod, kraj navoda, s oružjem.
02:02
And we think people like this probably don't want to vote
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I smatramo kako ovakvi ljudi vjerojatno ne žele glasati
02:05
for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.
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za ljude koji izgledaju ovako, i zovu se Barack Obama.
02:08
We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?
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Smatramo da je to pitanje rase. I je li to pošteno?
02:11
Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?
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Stigmatiziramo li ljude iz Arkansasa, i ovog dijela zemlje?
02:14
And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.
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I odgovor je, bar djelomično točan.
02:17
We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that
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Znamo da je rasa činitelj, i razlog zbog kojeg to znamo je
02:19
is because we asked those people.
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to što smo pitali te ljude.
02:21
Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted
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Zapravo nismo ih pitali, ali kada su podvrgnuti
02:23
exit polls in every state,
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izlaznim anketama u svakoj državi,
02:25
in 37 states, out of the 50,
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u 37 država, od 50,
02:27
they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.
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pitali su pitanje, koje je bilo direktno, vezano uz rasu.
02:30
They asked this question.
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Pitali su ovo pitanje.
02:32
In deciding your vote for President today, was the race
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U odlučivanju za koga glasati za Predsjednika danas, je li rasa
02:34
of the candidate a factor?
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kandidata bila faktor?
02:36
We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;
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Tražimo ljude koji su rekli: "Da, rasa je bila faktor,
02:39
moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"
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štoviše bila je važan faktor u mojoj odluci."
02:41
and people who voted for John McCain
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I ljudi koji su glasali za Johna McCaina
02:44
as a result of that factor,
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kao rezultat tog faktora,
02:46
maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.
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mogu biti u kombinaciji s drugim faktorima, a mogu biti i sami.
02:48
We're looking for this behavior among white voters
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Tražimo ovakvo ponašanje među bijelim biračima,
02:51
or, really, non-black voters.
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ili zapravo, ne-crnim glasačima.
02:54
So you see big differences in different parts
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Tako da možete vidjeti, velike razlike u različitim dijelovima
02:56
of the country on this question.
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zemlje, na ovo pitanje.
02:58
In Louisiana, about one in five white voters
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U Louisiani, otprilike jedan od pet bijelih glasača
03:01
said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama
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rekao je, "Da, jedan od velikih razloga zašto sam glasao protiv Baracka Obame
03:04
is because he was an African-American."
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je zato što je on Afro-Amerikanac."
03:06
If those people had voted for Obama,
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Da su ti ljudi glasali za Obamu,
03:08
even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.
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čak i samo polovica, Obama bi bez problema pobijedio u Louisiani.
03:12
Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.
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Isto je točno sa, ja mislim, svim državama koje vidite na vrhu popisa.
03:14
Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"
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U međuvremenu, California, New York. Za njih možemo reći, "O mi smo prosvijetljeni,"
03:18
but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this
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ali znate, puno manji dio
03:20
admitted, I suppose,
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priznaje, pretpostavljam
03:22
manifestation of racially-based voting.
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da je ovo odraz glasanja po rasnoj osnovi.
03:25
Here is the same data on a map.
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Ovo su isti ti podaci na karti.
03:27
You kind of see the relationship between
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Možete vidjeti vezu između
03:29
the redder states of where more people responded and said,
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crvenijih država gdje je više ljudi odgovorilo i reklo,
03:31
"Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."
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"Da, rasa Baracka Obame je bila problem za mene."
03:34
You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.
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Vidite, ako uspoređujemo kartu sa '96, vidimo preklapanje ovdje.
03:37
This really seems to explain
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To zaista objašnjava
03:39
why Barack Obama did worse
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zašto je Barack Obama prošao lošije
03:41
in this one part of the country.
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u ovom dijelu države.
03:43
So we have to ask why.
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Zato se moramo pitati zašto.
03:45
Is racism predictable in some way?
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Je li rasizam predvidljiv na neki način?
03:47
Is there something driving this?
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Postoji li nešto što potiče ovo?
03:49
Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas
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Je li to povezano s nekim čudnim stvarima koje se događaju u Arkansasu
03:51
that we don't understand, and Kentucky?
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koje ne razumijemo, i Kentuckyu?
03:53
Or are there more systematic factors at work?
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Ili su ovdje sistematični činitelji na djelu?
03:55
And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.
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Tako da možemo pogledati mnoštvo različitih varijabli.
03:57
These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --
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Ovo su stvari koje ekonomisti i politički znanstvenici gledaju cijelo vrijeme --
04:00
things like income, and religion, education.
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stvari kao prihod, vjera, obrazovanje.
04:03
Which of these seem to drive
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Što od ovoga potiče
04:05
this manifestation of racism
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ovu manifestaciju rasizma
04:07
in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?
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u ovom velikom nacionalnom eksperimentu koji smo imali četvrtog studenog?
04:10
And there are a couple of these that have
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I postoji nekoliko ovih činitelja koji imaju
04:12
strong predictive relationships,
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jake predvidljive poveznice --
04:14
one of which is education,
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jedna od kojih je obrazovanje.
04:17
where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling
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Gdje se vidi da države koje imaju najmanje godina školovanja
04:19
per adult are in red,
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po odrasloj osobi, su u crvenom
04:21
and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,
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i vidite ovaj dio zemlje, regiju planina Appalachian,
04:24
is less educated. It's just a fact.
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koja je manje obrazovana. To je jednostavno činjenica.
04:26
And you see the relationship there
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I vidite poveznicu ovdje
04:28
with the racially-based voting patterns.
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s rasno uvjetovanim uzorcima glasovanja.
04:31
The other variable that's important is
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Druga važna varijabla je
04:33
the type of neighborhood that you live in.
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vrsta naselja u kojem živite.
04:36
States that are more rural --
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Države koje su više ruralne,
04:38
even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --
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čak i neke države kao New Hampshire i Maine,
04:40
they exhibit a little bit of
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one pokazuju malo
04:42
this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.
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rasno uvjetovanog glasanja protiv Baracka Obame.
04:45
So it's the combination of these two things: it's education
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Tako da je to kombinacija ove dvije stvari. Obrazovanja
04:47
and the type of neighbors that you have,
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i vrste naselja u kojoj ste,
04:49
which we'll talk about more in a moment.
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o čemu ćemo za trenutak malo više razgovarati.
04:51
And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee
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Stvar kod država kao što su Arkansas i Tennessee
04:53
is that they're both very rural,
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je to da su obje vrlo ruralne,
04:55
and they are educationally impoverished.
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i da su u zaostatku s obrazovanjem.
04:59
So yes, racism is predictable.
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Tako da je rasizam predvidljiv.
05:01
These things, among maybe other variables,
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Ove stvari, između ostalih varijabli,
05:03
but these things seem to predict it.
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ali ove stvari ih čini se predviđaju.
05:05
We're going to drill down a little bit more now,
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Sada ćemo zagrepsti malo dublje,
05:07
into something called the General Social Survey.
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u nešto što se zove Opće Društveno Ispitivanje.
05:09
This is conducted by the University of Chicago
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Ono se provodi od strane Sveučilišta u Chicagu
05:11
every other year.
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svake druge godine.
05:13
And they ask a series of really interesting questions.
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I oni postavljaju niz vrlo zanimljivih pitanja.
05:15
In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions
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2000-te imali su posebno zanimljiva pitanja
05:17
about racial attitudes.
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o rasnim stavovima.
05:19
One simple question they asked is,
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Jedno jednostavno pitanje koje su postavili,
05:21
"Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"
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"Živi li netko suprotne rase u vašem susjedstvu?"
05:25
We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.
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Možemo vidjeti kako su rezultati različiti po zajednicama.
05:28
In cites, about 80 percent of people
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U gradovima, oko 80 posto ljudi
05:31
have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,
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ima u svom susjedstvu nekog koga smatra druge rase.
05:34
but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.
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Ali u ruralnim zajednicama, samo 30 posto.
05:37
Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.
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Vjerojatno zato što živite na farmi, nemate mnogo susjeda.
05:40
But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people
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No unatoč tome, nemate veliku interakciju s ljudima
05:43
who are unlike you.
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koji nisu poput vas.
05:45
So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey
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Tako da ćemo sada uzeti bijele ljude iz ispitivanja
05:48
and split them between those who have black neighbors --
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i podijeliti ih na one koji imaju afroamerikanca za susjeda
05:51
or, really, some neighbor of another race --
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ili zapravo, susjeda druge rase.
05:53
and people who have only white neighbors.
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Ljudi koji imaju samo bijele susjede.
05:56
And we see in some variables
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I vidimo u nekim varijablama
05:58
in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.
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kada gledamo političke stavove, da nema puno razlike.
06:00
This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.
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Ovo je bilo prije osam godina, neki ljudi su bili više okrenuti Republikancima tada.
06:03
But you see Democrats versus Republican,
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Ali vidite Demokrati protiv Republikanaca,
06:05
not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.
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nema velike razlike na osnovu toga tko vam je susjed.
06:08
And even some questions about race -- for example
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Pa čak i neka pitanja o rasi, na primjer
06:10
affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,
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afirmativne akcije, što je političko pitanje,
06:12
a policy question about race, if you will --
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pitanje stava o rasi, ako želite.
06:14
not much difference here.
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Nema ni tu puno razlike.
06:16
Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.
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Afirmativna akcija nije vrlo popularna iskreno, ni s bijelim glasačima, točka.
06:19
But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods
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Ali ljudi sa crnim susjedima i ljudi iz zajednica s jednom rasom
06:22
feel no differently about it really.
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nemaju različite stavove o tome.
06:25
But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,
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Ali ako zagrebemo malo dublje, ako odemo na malo osobniju razinu,
06:29
"Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"
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"Da li podržavate zakon koji će braniti brakove između rasa?"
06:31
There is a big difference.
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Postoji velika razlika.
06:33
People who don't have neighbors of a different race
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Ljudi koji nemaju susjede druge rase
06:35
are about twice as likely
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su otprilike dvaput skloniji
06:37
to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.
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protiviti se međurasnom braku, za razliku od ljudi koji imaju.
06:40
Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.
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Na osnovi toga tko živi u vašem neposrednom susjedstvu.
06:43
And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,
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I isto to su pitali, ne 2000., već u istom istraživanju 1996,
06:47
"Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"
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"Bi li glasali protiv kvalificiranog crnog predsjednika?"
06:51
You see people without neighbors who are African-American who
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Vidite da su ljudi bez susjeda koji su Afro-Amerikanci
06:53
were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."
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bili skloniji reći, "To bi mi stvaralo problem."
06:56
So it's really not even about urban versus rural.
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Dakle nije stvar u urbanom protiv ruralnog.
06:58
It's about who you live with.
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Stvar je u onom s kim živite.
07:00
Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by
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Rasizam je predvidljiv. I predvidljiv je
07:02
interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
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interakcijom ili nedostatkom iste s ljudima koji nisu poput vas, ljudima druge rase.
07:06
So if you want to address it,
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Ukoliko ga želite riješiti,
07:08
the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.
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cilj je organizirati interakciju s ljudima drugih rasa.
07:11
I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,
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Imam nekoliko vrlo očitih,
07:13
ideas for maybe how to do that.
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ideja kako to možda učiniti.
07:16
I'm a big fan of cities.
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Ja sam veliki obožavatelj gradova.
07:18
Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,
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Osobito ako imamo gradove koji su raznoliki i održivi,
07:21
and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.
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i mogu podržavati ljude različitih etničkih skupina i različith prihoda.
07:24
I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,
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Mislim da gradovi potiču više umrežavanja,
07:27
the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.
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i spontane interakcije nego što inače imate na dnevnoj bazi.
07:30
But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.
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Naravno da ne žele svi živjeti u gradu, naravno ne u gradu kao što je New York.
07:33
So we can think more about things like street grids.
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Tako da možemo razmišljati o mrežama ulica.
07:36
This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.
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Ovo je naselje u kojem sam ja odrastao u East Lansingu, Michigan.
07:38
It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.
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To je tradicionalna zajednica srednjeg zapada, što znači da imate pravu mrežu.
07:41
You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.
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Imate prava susjedstva i pravo drveće, i prave ulice po kojima možeš hodati.
07:44
And you interact a lot with your neighbors --
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I u interakciji ste sa svojim susjedima,
07:47
people you like, people you might not know.
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ljudima koji vam se sviđaju, ljudima koje ne poznajete.
07:49
And as a result it's a very tolerant community,
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I kao rezultat to postaje jedna vrlo tolerantna zajednica,
07:52
which is different, I think, than something like this,
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što je drugačije, ja mislim, od nečega poput ovoga,
07:54
which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,
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što možemo vidjeti u Schaumburgu, Illinois.
07:56
where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac
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Gdje je svaka grupa kuća u vlastitoj slijepoj ulici
07:59
and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.
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i drive-through Starbucks i takve stvari.
08:01
I think that actually this type of urban design,
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Mislim da zapravo ovaj tip urbanog dizajna,
08:04
which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --
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koji je počeo prevladavati u sedamdesetima i osamdesetima.
08:07
I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming
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Vjerujem da postoji veza između toga i situacije gdje zemlja
08:10
more conservative under Ronald Reagan.
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postaje konzervativnija, pod Ronaldom Reganom.
08:12
But also here is another idea we have --
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Ali ipak, tu je i druga ideja --
08:15
is an intercollegiate exchange program
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tu je program razmjene
08:17
where you have students going from New York abroad.
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gdje studenti iz New York-a putuju u inozemstvo.
08:20
But frankly there are enough differences within the country now
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Ali iskreno postoji dovoljno razlika unutar zemlje
08:22
where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,
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gdje ćete naći mnoštvo klinaca sa sveučilišta u New Yorku,
08:25
have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,
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koji su otišli studirati jedan semestar na sveučilište u Arkansasu,
08:27
and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.
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i obrnuto. Napravimo to na razini srednjih škola.
08:30
Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee
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Doslovno postoje ljudi koji mogu ići u školu u Arkansas ili Tennessee,
08:33
and might never interact in a positive affirmative way
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i nikad neće biti u interakciji na pozitivan način
08:36
with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.
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s nekim iz drugog dijela zemlje, ili drugom rasnom grupom.
08:40
I think part of the education variable we talked about before
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Mislim da je dio edukativne varijable o kojoj smo razgovarali prije
08:43
is the networking experience you get when you go to college
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iskustvo umrežavanja koje dobijete kada idete na fakultet
08:45
where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.
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sa mješavinom ljudi s kojima inače možda ne bi bili u interakciji.
08:49
But the point is, this is all good news,
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Ali poanta je, da su ovo sve dobre vijesti.
08:51
because when something is predictable,
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S obzirom na to da je predvidljivo,
08:54
it is what I call designable.
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to je ono što zovemo uredivim.
08:56
You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,
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Možete početi razmišljati o rješenjima za taj problem.
08:58
even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.
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Čak i ako je ovaj problem opasan, i tvrdoglav kao rasizam.
09:01
If we understand the root causes of the behavior
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Ako razumijemo korijene ovakvog ponašanja
09:03
and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,
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i gdje se ono pojavljuje a gdje ne,
09:05
we can start to design solutions to it.
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možemo početi stvarati rješenja za tu situaciju.
09:08
So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.
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Tako da je to sve što imam reći. Hvala vam puno.
09:10
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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