How to make faster decisions | The Way We Work, a TED series

Transcriber: TED Translators admin

翻译人员: Frank Wang 校对人员: Jiasi Hao

You're probably familiar with FOMO.

你一定了解 “错失恐惧症”（FOMO）这个词语。

[This guy invented the term]

【是他发明了这个专有名词】

That's short for "Fear Of Missing Out."

FOMO 即 “错失恐惧症” （fear of missing out）。

It's that feeling you get

即，你会有种感觉——

when it seems everyone else is doing something better

其他人在做的事

than what you're doing now.

看上去都比你的厉害。

But there's another FO you need to know about,

可其实还有一个 以 FO 开头的恐惧症，

比 FOMO 更危险——

and it's far more dangerous.

It's called FOBO,

它是“更佳选择恐惧症”。

and it's short for "Fear Of a Better Option."

即 FOBO （fear of a better option）。

[The Way We Work]

【我们的工作方式】

We live in a world of overwhelming choice.

这世上到处都有“重大抉择”。

Even decisions that used to be simple,

甚至有些在过去很简单的选择，

like choosing a restaurant or making everyday purchases,

比如去哪吃饭、买啥东西，

are now fraught with overanalysis.

可是现在连这些选择 都得仔细斟酌。

Technology has only made the issue more pronounced.

而科技只是让这一切变得更为明显。

If you want to buy a pair of white shoelaces online,

如果你要网购两根白色鞋带，

你就得在几千个白色鞋带中 精挑细选，

you have to sort through thousands of items

and read through hundreds of reviews.

还得翻看上百条买家评论。

信息量之大真是令人震惊，

That's an astounding amount of information to process

to just buy two pieces of string that cost less than your morning latte.

而这一切，只是为了 比一杯拿铁还便宜的两根绳子。

当你面对若干个完全可行的选项之时，

Chances are you've experienced FOBO when you've struggled

若你为选择最佳方案而苦苦纠结， 那你可能已被 FOBO 找上门。

to choose just one from a group of perfectly acceptable outcomes.

It's a symptom of a culture which sees value

如果一种文化 鼓励人们拥有并保留尽可能多的选择，

in collecting and preserving as many options as possible.

这种文化就会催生 FOBO 。

You might wonder why all of this is so bad.

你可能会问：这有什么不好的？

It seems counterintuitive.

这很有违常理啊？

Shouldn't it be a privilege to have so many good options

能从那么多好的选择中 作出抉择，

不是一件好事吗？

to choose from?

问题就在于 FOBO 会让你 过于认真地思考问题，

The problem is, FOBO induces such severe analysis paralysis

that it can negatively impact both your personal and professional life.

这种过度认真会对你的生活和工作 产生负面影响。

你的犹豫不决

When you can't make decisions with conviction,

会浪费你宝贵的时间与精力。

you waste precious time and energy.

幸好 FOBO 是可以被克服的。

Luckily, there is a way to overcome FOBO.

Here's a secret.

秘诀如下。

With any decision you make, you first have to determine the stakes,

在做出每一个决定前， 你都要确定该选项的风险大小，

as this will inform your decision-making strategy.

这样你也能因此制定抉择策略。

确定风险之后，

When it comes down to it,

you only really face three types of decisions in life:

留下的就只有三类决定：

high stakes, low stakes and no stakes.

高风险、低风险，和无风险。

Let's start with no-stakes decisions.

首先来看无风险选项。

These are the minor details of life,

生活中有些细节

where there is almost never an incorrect answer,

永远没有正确答案，

and in a few hours, you won't even remember

几小时后，你甚至不会记得

你做出了这个决定。

making the decision.

A good example of this is choosing what to watch on TV.

对电视节目的选择 就是一个很好的例子。

With thousands of shows, it's easy to get overwhelmed,

电视节目成千上万， 足以让你迷失其中，

但不管你选择哪个节目

yet no matter what you pick,

the consequences are basically nonexistent.

都不会有什么后果。

So spending more than a few moments on FOBO

所以，在这种问题上花太多时间

is a massive waste of energy.

就是对精力的巨大浪费。

You just need to move on.

你只需要做完了事就好。

When it comes to no-stakes decisions,

无风险决定的关键

the key is to outsource them to the universe.

在于听天由命。

For example, you can whittle down your choices to just two

比如你可以将结果精简为两种，

and then flip a coin.

然后掷硬币。

Or try my personal favorite -- ask the watch.

或者像我一样——问手表。

将你的选择分配到手表的两个半面，

Assign each one of your choices to one half of your watch,

then let the second hand tell you what you're going to do.

秒针走在哪个半面， 你就选哪个——

看样子我得吃鱼。

Looks like I'll be having the fish.

That brings us to low-stakes decisions.

现在来看看低风险选项。

These have consequences, but none are earth-shattering,

这些决定会有后果， 但后果不严重。

and there are plenty of acceptable outcomes.

这些选项的结果大多可以接受。

Many routine things at work, like purchasing a printer,

很多生活中的日常， 比如买哪台打印机？

booking a hotel or choosing between possible venues for an off-site

订哪个酒店？去哪里出差？

are classically low-stakes in nature.

这些在本质上都是低风险决定。

Some thinking is required,

这些决定需要你做出思考，

but these aren't make-or-break deliberations,

但就算做错也没啥大不了，

and you'll probably forget about them in a few weeks.

你过几周可能就会忘记此事。

Here, you can also outsource decision-making,

你也可以再玩一次”听天由命“，

but you want some critical thinking involved,

但因为毕竟风险还是存在的，

as there are some stakes.

所以你会想要认真思考一番。

This time, you'll outsource to a person.

这一次 你可以听”人“由命。

Set some basic criteria,

先设下一些基本标准，

select someone to present a recommendation,

然后请他人提出建议，

and then take their advice.

并听从这些建议。

Make sure to avoid the temptation to canvass.

你千万不要游说他人，

Your goal is to clear your plate,

因为你的目的是解决问题，

not to kick the can down the road.

而不是制造问题。

Now that you tackled low-stakes and no-stakes decisions,

现在你把无风险和低风险选项 都解决了，

you've created the space and time you'll need

你已经把时间和空间都

to handle high-stakes decisions.

腾给了高风险选项。

你免不了会遇到 “在哪里买房？”

These are things like "which house should I buy"

“去哪里工作？”等问题。

or "which job should I accept."

Since the stakes are high and there are long-term implications,

因为风险高 意味着它对你有着长远的影响，

you absolutely want to get it right.

于是你必定想做出正确决定。

Before we get to work, let's establish a few basic principles

开始之前， 我们先确立一些基本原则，

to guide you through the process.

来指导你做出正确决定的流程。

First, think about what really matters to you,

其一，想想什么对你来说真正重要，

and set your criteria accordingly.

并依此设定选择标准。

Second, gather the relevant facts.

其二，收集相关事实。

Make sure you collect data about all of the options,

确保你对所有选择都了如指掌，

so you can be confident

这样你就能确信

that you're truly making an informed decision.

你的决定的确是基于事实的。

其三，记住 FOBO

And third, remember that FOBO, by nature,

会在你面对若干个完全可行的选择

comes when you struggle to choose just one

from a group of perfectly acceptable options.

而你只能选择其中一个时 才会出现。

So no matter what you choose,

所以不论你选哪个，

you can rest assured that the downside is limited.

你都可以放心， 因为每个选项的不利因素是有限的。

Now that you've established some ground rules,

现在一些基本原则已被确立，

the process can begin.

你可以开始选择了。

Start by identifying a front-runner based on your intuition,

首先凭直觉选出一个最佳选项，

then compare each of your options head-to-head

然后将其他选项与该最佳选项进行

with the front-runner, one-by-one.

逐一的、一对一比较。

Each time, choose the better of the two based on the criteria,

每次比较均须根据选择标准， 从两个选项中选出一个

and discard the other one.

并淘汰另外一个。

Here's the trick to avoiding FOBO.

这里有一个避开 FOBO 的秘诀：

When you eliminate an option, it's gone forever.

不要让已被淘汰的选项再次出现。

If you keep returning to discarded options,

如果你不停地“复活”淘汰选项，

you risk getting stuck.

你将陷入纠结之中。

Now repeat this process until you get down to one final choice.

重复刚才的步骤， 直到你得出最终选择。

If you follow this system,

如果你遵循这一流程，

你通常能 得出自己的结论、作出自己的选择。

you will usually end up with a decision on your own.

On the rare occasion that you get stuck,

除非你遇到的情况相当罕见，

you will outsource the final decision

如果是这样， 你就得把最终决定权

to a small group of qualified people who you trust

交由一群可靠的、你信任的人，

and who are equipped to provide you with guidance

这些人还需要有能力就此话题

on this particular topic.

向你提供意见。

Engage a group of five or less, ideally an odd number of people

人数不要超过 5 位，最好是奇数位，

so that you have a built-in tiebreaker if you need it.

因为一旦出现平票状况， 就会有人一锤定音。

Now that you've made your choice, one last challenge remains.

现在你已经做出了选择， 但还剩下一个挑战——

就是执行这一选择。

You have to commit.

I can't promise you that you'll ever truly know if you've made the perfect decision,

我不能保证你的选择一定是完美的

but I can tell you this:

但我可以告诉你

a significant percentage of people in the world

这世界上将有一大部分人

will never have to worry about FOBO.

可以告别 FOBO 的烦扰。

Unlike the billions of people who have few options, if any,

还有成万上亿的人可能 没有什么选择，

due to war, poverty or illness,

因为他们被战争、贫穷， 或疾病所困扰。

you have plentiful opportunities to live decisively.

但与他们不同的是， 你有很多机会来做出抉择，

You may not get everything you want,

虽然并非你的所有愿望 都能得以满足。

but the mere fact you get to decide is powerful.

但决定权本身已能让你十分强大。

In fact, it's a gift.

其实，决定权是一份馈赠。

请充分使用！

Make the most of it.