How to make faster decisions | The Way We Work, a TED series

Transcriber: TED Translators admin

譯者: Yuwei Duan 審譯者: Marssi Draw

You're probably familiar with FOMO.

你可能對「FOMO」 這個概念不陌生。

[This guy invented the term]

[ 是他發明了這個詞 ]

That's short for "Fear Of Missing Out."

那是「錯失恐懼症」的縮寫 （fear of missing out）。

It's that feeling you get

當你覺得其他人在做的事

when it seems everyone else is doing something better

看上去都比你的厲害時，

than what you're doing now.

你會有這種感覺。

But there's another FO you need to know about,

可是其實還有一個 你該知道的恐懼症

比「 FOMO」 更危險，

and it's far more dangerous.

It's called FOBO,

稱為「FOBO」，

and it's short for "Fear Of a Better Option."

即「更優選擇恐懼症」的縮寫 （fear of a better option）。

[The Way We Work]

[ 我們的工作方式 ]

We live in a world of overwhelming choice.

這世上充滿了太多「選擇」。

Even decisions that used to be simple,

甚至有些曾經很簡單的決定，

like choosing a restaurant or making everyday purchases,

例如「去哪吃飯」或「買什麼東西」，

are now fraught with overanalysis.

現在都得反覆斟酌。

Technology has only made the issue more pronounced.

科技只會讓問題更加明顯。

If you want to buy a pair of white shoelaces online,

如果你要網購兩根白色鞋帶，

得在上千個商品中反覆挑選，

you have to sort through thousands of items

and read through hundreds of reviews.

還得看上百條評論。

要處理的資訊多得驚人。

That's an astounding amount of information to process

to just buy two pieces of string that cost less than your morning latte.

而這一切，只是為了買比你 晨間拿鐵還便宜的兩根繩子。

你也許經歷過 FOBO，

Chances are you've experienced FOBO when you've struggled

情況可能是要在若干 完美可接受的選項裡萬中選一。

to choose just one from a group of perfectly acceptable outcomes.

It's a symptom of a culture which sees value

這種症狀出現在

崇尚「多多益善」的社會文化中。

in collecting and preserving as many options as possible.

You might wonder why all of this is so bad.

你可能會問：這有什麼不好的？

It seems counterintuitive.

似乎與直覺告訴我們的正相反。

Shouldn't it be a privilege to have so many good options

能從那麼多好的選項中作出選擇，

不是一件好事嗎？

to choose from?

問題就在於 FOBO 會導致 嚴重的分析癱瘓，

The problem is, FOBO induces such severe analysis paralysis

that it can negatively impact both your personal and professional life.

可能對你的生活和工作 產生負面影響。

當你不能堅定地做出决定時，

When you can't make decisions with conviction,

會浪費寶貴的時間和精力。

you waste precious time and energy.

幸好 FOBO 是可以克服的。

Luckily, there is a way to overcome FOBO.

Here's a secret.

而祕訣是：

With any decision you make, you first have to determine the stakes,

在做出決定前， 你首先要確定它的風險，

as this will inform your decision-making strategy.

這樣就能製定決定策略。

歸根究柢，

When it comes down to it,

you only really face three types of decisions in life:

我們人生中只會有三類決定：

high stakes, low stakes and no stakes.

高風險、低風險和無風險。

Let's start with no-stakes decisions.

首先來看無風險決定。 [ 無風險決定 ]

These are the minor details of life,

生活中有些小細節

where there is almost never an incorrect answer,

永遠沒有錯誤答案，

and in a few hours, you won't even remember

幾小時後，你甚至不會記得

你做出了什麼決定。

making the decision.

A good example of this is choosing what to watch on TV.

選擇要看哪個電視節目 就是很好的例子。

With thousands of shows, it's easy to get overwhelmed,

成千上萬的電視節目 足以讓你手足無措，

但不管你選擇哪個節目

yet no matter what you pick,

the consequences are basically nonexistent.

基本上都不會有什麼後果。

So spending more than a few moments on FOBO

所以，花時間在這種問題上

is a massive waste of energy.

就會浪費太多精力。

You just need to move on.

你只需要做了就好。

When it comes to no-stakes decisions,

完成無風險決定的祕訣

the key is to outsource them to the universe.

就是聽天由命。

For example, you can whittle down your choices to just two

比如：你可以將選擇精簡為兩種，

and then flip a coin.

然後拋硬幣。

Or try my personal favorite -- ask the watch.

或選擇我最喜歡的方法——問手錶。

手錶的兩半代表你的不同選項，

Assign each one of your choices to one half of your watch,

then let the second hand tell you what you're going to do.

秒針走在哪個半面， 你就得選哪個。

看來我得吃魚。

Looks like I'll be having the fish.

That brings us to low-stakes decisions.

現在來看看低風險決定。 [ 低風險決定 ]

These have consequences, but none are earth-shattering,

這些決定會產生後果， 但影響微乎其微，

and there are plenty of acceptable outcomes.

而且選項的結果大多可以接受。

Many routine things at work, like purchasing a printer,

很多工作上的例行公事， 比如「買哪臺影印機？」

booking a hotel or choosing between possible venues for an off-site

「訂哪間旅館？」 「在哪裡舉辦公司活動？」

are classically low-stakes in nature.

都是典型的低風險決定。

Some thinking is required,

這些決定需要你稍微考慮一下，

but these aren't make-or-break deliberations,

但就算選錯了也沒什麼大不了，

and you'll probably forget about them in a few weeks.

你過幾週可能就會忘記這件事。

Here, you can also outsource decision-making,

當然你也可以再來一次「聽天由命」，

but you want some critical thinking involved,

但畢竟風險還是存在，

as there are some stakes.

所以你最好認真思考一番。

This time, you'll outsource to a person.

這一次你可以請求外援。

Set some basic criteria,

先設定一些基本標準，

select someone to present a recommendation,

然後請別人提出建議，

and then take their advice.

並聽從他們的建議。

Make sure to avoid the temptation to canvass.

你千萬不要嘗試說服他們，

Your goal is to clear your plate,

因為你的目的是解决問題，

not to kick the can down the road.

而不是把問題踢給別人。

Now that you tackled low-stakes and no-stakes decisions,

現在你解决了低風險和無風險決定，

you've created the space and time you'll need

你就把時間和空間

to handle high-stakes decisions.

都留給了高風險決定。 [ 高風險決定 ]

你會遇到「要買哪間房子？」

These are things like "which house should I buy"

或「去哪裡工作？」之類的問題。

or "which job should I accept."

Since the stakes are high and there are long-term implications,

既然風險高且會帶來長期影響，

you absolutely want to get it right.

你一定想做出正確決定。

Before we get to work, let's establish a few basic principles

開始之前，我們先 確立一些基本原則，

to guide you through the process.

來引導你做出正確決定。

First, think about what really matters to you,

其一，認真思考 對你來說真正重要的東西，

and set your criteria accordingly.

並以此設定標準。

Second, gather the relevant facts.

其二，收集相關事實。

Make sure you collect data about all of the options,

確保你清楚瞭解所有選擇了，

so you can be confident

這樣你就能自信地說

that you're truly making an informed decision.

你的決定有依有據。

其三，記住 FOBO 一般來說

And third, remember that FOBO, by nature,

會在你面對好幾個完美可行的選擇，

comes when you struggle to choose just one

from a group of perfectly acceptable options.

而你只能選擇其中一個時出現。

So no matter what you choose,

所以無論你選哪個，

you can rest assured that the downside is limited.

你大可放心，

因為每個選擇的不利因素都有限。

Now that you've established some ground rules,

現在一些基本原則已確立，

the process can begin.

你可以開始選擇了。

Start by identifying a front-runner based on your intuition,

首先憑直覺選出一個最優選項，

then compare each of your options head-to-head

然後將其它選項與最優選項一一比較。

with the front-runner, one-by-one.

Each time, choose the better of the two based on the criteria,

每次比較都要遵守選擇標準， 從兩個選項中選出一個，

and discard the other one.

然後淘汰另外一個選擇。

Here's the trick to avoiding FOBO.

避免 FOBO 的祕訣是：

When you eliminate an option, it's gone forever.

被淘汰的選項就是永遠被淘汰了。

If you keep returning to discarded options,

如果你不停把淘汰選項拿回來，

you risk getting stuck.

你將陷入困境之中。

Now repeat this process until you get down to one final choice.

現在，重複剛才的步驟， 直到你得出最終決定。

If you follow this system,

如果你遵循這一流程，

你通常能獨立做出選擇。

you will usually end up with a decision on your own.

On the rare occasion that you get stuck,

除非少數情況下，你感覺被困住了，

you will outsource the final decision

那你就得把最終決定權

to a small group of qualified people who you trust

交給一小群可靠、信任、

and who are equipped to provide you with guidance

有能力就此主題提供指引的人。

on this particular topic.

Engage a group of five or less, ideally an odd number of people

人數最好是小於或等於五的奇數，

so that you have a built-in tiebreaker if you need it.

就能避免票數相同的僵局。

Now that you've made your choice, one last challenge remains.

現在你已經做出了選擇， 但還剩下一個挑戰——

執行這一選擇。

You have to commit.

I can't promise you that you'll ever truly know if you've made the perfect decision,

我不能保證你的選擇一定是完美的，

but I can tell you this:

但我可以告訴你的是，

a significant percentage of people in the world

這世界上有很多人

will never have to worry about FOBO.

永遠不需要擔心 FOBO 的困擾。

Unlike the billions of people who have few options, if any,

還有上億人可能根本沒有什麼選擇，

due to war, poverty or illness,

因為他們被戰爭、貧窮， 或疾病所困擾。

you have plentiful opportunities to live decisively.

但你有很多做選擇的機會。

You may not get everything you want,

雖然你不能總是心想事成，

but the mere fact you get to decide is powerful.

但光是你能做决定這點就很強大。

In fact, it's a gift.

事實上，決定權是一份禮物。

請好好使用！

Make the most of it.