T. Boone Pickens: Let's transform energy -- with natural gas

98,203 views ・ 2012-03-19

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Fang Xue 校对人员: Xiaoqiao Xie
00:15
I'm a believer.
0
15260
2000
我是个信徒
00:17
I'm a believer in global warming,
1
17260
2000
我相信全球气候变暖
00:19
and my record is good
2
19260
2000
在这个学科上
00:21
on the subject.
3
21260
2000
我成绩很好
00:23
But my subject
4
23260
2000
但我要谈论的议题
00:25
is national security.
5
25260
2000
是国家安全
00:27
We have to get off of oil purchased
6
27260
3000
我们必须停止向敌人
00:30
from the enemy.
7
30260
2000
购买石油
00:32
I'm talking about OPEC oil.
8
32260
2000
我说的是向石油输出国家组织购买石油
00:34
And let me take you back
9
34260
2000
现在让我把你们带回
00:36
100 years
10
36260
2000
100年前
00:38
to 1912.
11
38260
3000
到1912年
00:41
You're probably thinking that was my birth year.
12
41260
3000
各位可能觉得是我出生的那年
00:44
(Laughter)
13
44260
2000
(笑声)
00:46
It wasn't. It was 1928.
14
46260
3000
其实不是,我出生于1928年
00:49
But go back to 1912,
15
49260
2000
但是回到1912年
00:51
100 years ago,
16
51260
2000
100年前
00:53
and look at that point
17
53260
2000
看看那时
00:55
what we, our country, was faced with.
18
55260
3000
我们,我们的国家面临的是什么情况
00:58
It's the same energy question
19
58260
2000
和今天我们面临的问题
01:00
that you're looking at today,
20
60260
2000
相同
01:02
but it's different sources of fuel.
21
62260
3000
只是不同的燃料而已
01:05
A hundred years ago
22
65260
2000
100年前
01:07
we were looking at coal, of course,
23
67260
2000
当然,我们关注的是煤
01:09
and we were looking at whale oil
24
69260
2000
我们关注的是鲸脂油
01:11
and we were looking at crude oil.
25
71260
3000
还有原油
01:14
At that point,
26
74260
2000
那个时候
01:16
we were looking for a fuel
27
76260
2000
我们在寻找一种燃料
01:18
that was cleaner,
28
78260
2000
更清洁
01:20
it was cheaper,
29
80260
2000
更便宜
01:22
and it wasn't ours though,
30
82260
3000
但是它不是我们的
01:25
it was theirs.
31
85260
2000
是石油输出国家组织的
01:27
So at that point, 1912,
32
87260
3000
在当时的1912年
01:30
we selected crude oil over whale oil
33
90260
3000
我们选择了原油而非鲸脂油
01:33
and some more coal.
34
93260
3000
和煤
01:36
But as we moved on
35
96260
2000
但是我们接着看
01:38
to the period now, 100 years later,
36
98260
3000
到如今,也就是100年后
01:41
we're back really
37
101260
2000
我们还是回到了
01:43
at another decision point.
38
103260
2000
另外一个抉择点
01:45
What is the decision point?
39
105260
2000
我们的抉择点是什么呢
01:47
It's what we're going to use
40
107260
2000
是将来
01:49
in the future.
41
109260
2000
我们又要用什么燃料
01:51
So from here,
42
111260
2000
所以现在
01:53
it's pretty clear to me,
43
113260
2000
我很清楚
01:55
we would prefer to have
44
115260
2000
我们宁愿选择
01:57
cleaner, cheaper,
45
117260
2000
更清洁的 更环保的
01:59
domestic, ours --
46
119260
3000
国内的 我们自己的-
02:02
and we have that, we have that --
47
122260
3000
我们拥有的
02:05
which is natural gas.
48
125260
2000
那就是天然气
02:07
So here you are,
49
127260
2000
再看看这里
02:09
that the cost of all this to the world
50
129260
4000
世界石油的总消耗
02:13
is 89 million barrels of oil,
51
133260
3000
八千九百万桶
02:16
give or take a few barrels, every day.
52
136260
2000
这基本上还是每天的用量
02:18
And the cost annually
53
138260
2000
而且年消耗
02:20
is three trillion dollars.
54
140260
3000
足足有三万亿美金
02:23
And one trillion of that
55
143260
2000
其中有一万亿美金
02:25
goes to OPEC.
56
145260
2000
付给了石油输出国家组织
02:27
That has got to be stopped.
57
147260
3000
绝对不能再这样下去
02:30
Now if you look at the cost of OPEC,
58
150260
3000
如果我们看看石油输出国组织的成本
02:33
it cost seven trillion dollars --
59
153260
3000
是七万亿美金
02:36
on the Milken Institute study last year --
60
156260
2000
根据梅肯研究院去年的研究
02:38
seven trillion dollars
61
158260
2000
自1976年来
02:40
since 1976,
62
160260
2000
七万亿美金
02:42
is what we paid for oil from OPEC.
63
162260
3000
是我们向石油输出国组织所付的钱
02:45
Now that includes the cost of military
64
165260
2000
这包含军事
02:47
and the cost of the fuel both.
65
167260
3000
燃料两种成本
02:50
But it's the greatest transfer of wealth,
66
170260
5000
这是人类历史上
02:55
from one group to another
67
175260
2000
从一个组织到另一个组织的
02:57
in the history of mankind.
68
177260
2000
最大的财富转移
02:59
And it continues.
69
179260
2000
而且还将继续
03:01
Now when you look
70
181260
2000
当你在寻找
03:03
at where is the transfer of wealth,
71
183260
2000
是在哪里进行的财富转移时
03:05
you can see here
72
185260
2000
你看看这里
03:07
that we have the arrows
73
187260
3000
这儿有个箭头表示
03:10
going into the Mid-East
74
190260
2000
从我们这里
03:12
and away from us.
75
192260
2000
指向中东读取
03:14
And with that,
76
194260
2000
根据这个
03:16
we have found ourselves
77
196260
2000
我们发现我们是
03:18
to be the world's policemen.
78
198260
2000
世界的保卫者
03:20
We are policing the world,
79
200260
2000
我们保卫着这个世界
03:22
and how are we doing that?
80
202260
3000
我们是怎么做到的呢
03:25
I know the response to this.
81
205260
4000
我知道我们是如何做的
03:29
I would bet there aren't 10 percent of you in the room
82
209260
4000
我敢打赌在座不会有超过百分之十的人
03:33
that know how many aircraft carriers there are in the world.
83
213260
4000
知道全世界上有几架航空母舰
03:38
Raise your hand if you think you know.
84
218260
3000
如果你知道的话请举手
03:41
There are 12.
85
221260
2000
一共有12架
03:43
One is under construction by the Chinese
86
223260
2000
一架在中国正在建设中
03:45
and the other 11 belong to us.
87
225260
3000
另外有11架属于我们
03:48
Why do we have 11 aircraft carriers?
88
228260
4000
为什么我们有11架航空母舰呢
03:52
Do we have a corner on the market?
89
232260
3000
我们垄断市场了吗?
03:55
Are we smarter than anybody else? I'm not sure.
90
235260
3000
我们比别人都要聪明吗?我不这么认为
03:58
If you look at where they're located --
91
238260
2000
我们看看这些航空母舰在哪就知道了
04:00
and on this slide it's the red blobs on there --
92
240260
3000
在这张幻灯片上有五个红色地方标记出来了
04:03
there are five that are operating in the Mid-East,
93
243260
4000
有五架在中东运行
04:07
and the rest of them are in the United States.
94
247260
3000
剩下的在美国
04:10
They just move back to the Mid-East and those come back.
95
250260
3000
五架是刚派遣过去的,这些是刚回来的
04:13
So actually most of the 11 we have
96
253260
3000
所以实际上我们拥有的11架的大部分
04:16
are tied up in the Mid-East.
97
256260
3000
被牢牢捆绑在中东
04:19
Why? Why are they in the Mid-East?
98
259260
3000
为什么?为什么会在中东呢?
04:22
They're there to control,
99
262260
2000
它们需要在那里控制着
04:24
keep the shipping lanes open
100
264260
2000
保持着航运通道的畅通无阻
04:26
and make oil available.
101
266260
2000
同时使石油可以被我们买到
04:28
And the United States uses about 20 million barrels a day,
102
268260
4000
其中美国一天使用两千万桶
04:32
which is about 25 percent of all the oil used
103
272260
4000
这是世界每天石油消耗总量的
04:36
everyday in the world.
104
276260
3000
25%
04:39
And we're doing it with four percent of the population.
105
279260
3000
而且还需要动用4%的人口
04:42
Somehow that doesn't seem right.
106
282260
3000
然而这却不一定正确的做法
04:45
That's not sustainable.
107
285260
2000
这并不是长远之计
04:47
So where do we go from here?
108
287260
2000
所以我们要怎么办呢?
04:49
Does that continue?
109
289260
2000
那会持续下去?
04:51
Yes, it's going to continue.
110
291260
2000
对,还是会持续下去
04:53
The slide you're looking at here
111
293260
2000
我们看的这张幻灯片是
04:55
is 1990 to 2040.
112
295260
2000
1990年到2040年
04:57
Over that period
113
297260
2000
在这期间
04:59
you are going to double your demand.
114
299260
3000
石油的需要量将会加倍
05:02
And when you look at what we're using the oil for,
115
302260
3000
来看看我们用石油干什么
05:05
70 percent of it
116
305260
2000
其中的70%
05:07
is used for transportation fuel.
117
307260
2000
是用作交通
05:09
So when somebody says,
118
309260
2000
所以当有的人主张
05:11
"Let's go more nuclear,
119
311260
2000
让我们使用核能吧
05:13
let's go wind, let's go solar,"
120
313260
3000
让我们使用风能,使用太阳能
05:16
fine; I'm for anything American,
121
316260
3000
无所谓,只要是美国的自己的东西我都无所谓
05:19
anything American.
122
319260
2000
只要是美国自己的
05:21
But if you're going to do anything
123
321260
2000
但是如果是以
05:23
about the dependency on foreign oil,
124
323260
3000
国外石油为基础的话
05:26
you have to address transportation.
125
326260
2000
就必须要解决运输燃料的问题
05:28
So here we are
126
328260
2000
所以我们现在
05:30
using 20 million barrels a day --
127
330260
3000
每天用着两千万桶
05:33
producing eight, importing 12,
128
333260
3000
自己生产八万桶 进口十二万桶
05:36
and from the 12,
129
336260
2000
这十二万桶中
05:38
five comes from OPEC.
130
338260
5000
五万桶来自于石油输出国家组织
05:43
When you look at the biggest user and the second largest user,
131
343260
3000
现在我们看看世界最大的石油国家和第二大国家
05:46
we use 20 million barrels
132
346260
2000
我们用两千万桶
05:48
and the Chinese use 10.
133
348260
2000
中国用一千万桶
05:50
The Chinese have a little bit better plan --
134
350260
4000
中国还有个稍微好点的规划
05:54
or they have a plan;
135
354260
2000
或者至少他们有个计划
05:56
we have no plan.
136
356260
2000
而我们没有
05:58
In the history of America,
137
358260
2000
在美国的历史上
06:00
we've never had an energy plan.
138
360260
2000
我们从没有过任何能源计划
06:02
We don't even realize the resources
139
362260
2000
我们甚至没有意识到
06:04
that we have available to us.
140
364260
2000
我们可以用的资源
06:06
If you take the last 10 years
141
366260
2000
如果拿过去十年
06:08
and bring forward,
142
368260
2000
来看的话
06:10
you've transferred to OPEC a trillion dollars.
143
370260
4000
我们已经付给石油输出国家组织一万亿美元
06:14
If you go forward the next 10 years
144
374260
3000
如果再往前推10年的话
06:17
and cap the price of oil at 100 dollars a barrel,
145
377260
3000
且石油价格以每桶100美元计算
06:20
you will pay 2.2 trillion.
146
380260
3000
将支付2.2万亿美元
06:23
That's not sustainable either.
147
383260
2000
这同样是不可持续的
06:25
But the days of cheap oil are over.
148
385260
3000
廉价石油的日子已经结束了
06:28
They're over.
149
388260
2000
已经结束了
06:30
They make it very clear to you,
150
390260
3000
石油输出国家组织已经很清楚地向我们表示
06:33
the Saudis do,
151
393260
3000
沙特阿拉伯人表示得很清楚
06:36
they have to have 94 dollars a barrel
152
396260
3000
他们必须要以94美元一桶的价钱卖
06:39
to make their social commitments.
153
399260
2000
来实现他们的社会承诺
06:41
Now I had people in Washington last week told me,
154
401260
4000
上个星期我华盛顿的朋友告诉我
06:45
he said, "The Saudis can produce the oil
155
405260
3000
“沙特人生产石油的
06:48
for five dollars a barrel.
156
408260
2000
成本是五美元
06:50
That has nothing to do with it.
157
410260
2000
我们没有任何办法
06:52
It's what they have to pay for
158
412260
2000
这就意味着不管他们需要我们为石油付多少
06:54
is what we are going to pay for oil."
159
414260
2000
我们都必须支付”
06:56
There is no free market for oil.
160
416260
2000
石油没有所谓的自由市场
06:58
The oil is priced off the margin.
161
418260
2000
油价是以利润定价
07:00
And the OPEC nations
162
420260
3000
是石油输出国家组织
07:03
are the ones that price the oil.
163
423260
2000
给石油定价
07:05
So where are we headed from here?
164
425260
3000
那么当下我们应该怎么做呢?
07:08
We're headed to natural gas.
165
428260
3000
我们必须使用天然气
07:11
Natural gas will do everything
166
431260
2000
天然气能够实现一切
07:13
we want it to do.
167
433260
2000
我们希望它实现的
07:15
It's 130 octane fuel.
168
435260
3000
天然气是130辛烷值燃料
07:18
It's 25 percent cleaner than oil.
169
438260
3000
它比石油清洁25%
07:21
It's ours, we have an abundance of it.
170
441260
3000
它是我们的 我们有丰富的储藏
07:24
And it does not require a refinery.
171
444260
3000
而且制造也不需要提炼厂
07:27
It comes out of the ground at 130 octane.
172
447260
2000
从地底开采出来就已经是130辛烷值了
07:29
Run it through the separator and you're ready to use it.
173
449260
3000
通过分离器后就可以使用了
07:32
It's going to be very simple for us to use.
174
452260
3000
它使用起来将会很简单
07:35
It's going to be simple to accomplish this.
175
455260
2000
很简单就能实现
07:37
You're going to find, and I'll tell you in just a minute,
176
457260
2000
你们即将发现 我稍后会告诉你们
07:39
what you're looking for to make it happen.
177
459260
3000
你们期望得到的答案
07:42
But here you can look at the list.
178
462260
3000
不过现在你们可以看看这个列表
07:45
Natural gas will fit all of those.
179
465260
3000
天然气符合这里所有的条件
07:48
It will replace or be able to be used for that.
180
468260
4000
它可以取代或作为可适用性燃料
07:52
It's for power generation, transportation,
181
472260
2000
它可以用来发电 用来运输
07:54
it's peaking fuel, it's all those.
182
474260
3000
它是很尖端的燃料 这都是它的优势
07:57
Do we have enough natural gas?
183
477260
3000
那么我们有足够的天然气吗
08:00
Look at the bar on the left. It's 24 trillion.
184
480260
3000
看看左边的方块 这是24万亿
08:03
It's what we use a year.
185
483260
2000
是我们一年的用量
08:05
Go forward
186
485260
2000
再接下来
08:07
and the estimates that you have
187
487260
2000
看看美国能源信息署的
08:09
from the EIA and onto the industry estimates --
188
489260
4000
对工业用的估计——
08:13
the industry knows what they're talking about --
189
493260
2000
工业行十分清楚自己在讲什么——
08:15
we've got 4,000 trillion cubic feet
190
495260
3000
我们有4000万亿立方英尺的
08:18
of natural gas that's available to us.
191
498260
2000
可以使用的天然气
08:20
How does that translate
192
500260
2000
这可以换算成
08:22
to barrels of oil equivalent?
193
502260
2000
多少桶原油呢?
08:24
It would be three times
194
504260
2000
它将会是
08:26
what the Saudis claim they have.
195
506260
2000
沙特阿拉伯人宣称他们有的三倍
08:28
And they claim they have 250 billion barrels of oil,
196
508260
3000
他们宣称他们有两千五百亿桶石油
08:31
which I do not believe.
197
511260
2000
反正我不相信
08:33
I think it's probably 175 billion barrels.
198
513260
5000
我猜可能有一千七百五十亿桶
08:38
But anyway, whether they say they're right or whatever,
199
518260
3000
但是不管他们说的正确与否
08:41
we have plenty of natural gas.
200
521260
2000
我们有相当数量的天然气
08:43
So I have tried to target
201
523260
2000
所以我的着眼点
08:45
on where we use the natural gas.
202
525260
2000
在于天然气的应用方向
08:47
And where I've targeted
203
527260
2000
而且我的目标
08:49
is on the heavy-duty trucks.
204
529260
2000
是耐重型的卡车
08:51
There are eight million of them.
205
531260
2000
现在有八百万卡车
08:53
You take eight million trucks --
206
533260
2000
你们可以用这八百万辆卡车
08:55
these are 18-wheelers --
207
535260
2000
这些18个轮子的卡车--
08:57
and take them to natural gas,
208
537260
2000
去采天然气
08:59
reduce carbon by 30 percent,
209
539260
3000
可以减少30%的二氧化碳
09:02
it is cheaper
210
542260
2000
这也会更便宜
09:04
and it will cut our imports
211
544260
3000
而且会减少进口
09:07
three million barrels.
212
547260
2000
三百万桶石油之多
09:09
So you will cut 60 percent off of OPEC
213
549260
3000
这样一来 就可以用八百万辆卡车
09:12
with eight million trucks.
214
552260
2000
减少60%从是石油输出国组织进口石油
09:14
There are 250 million vehicles in America.
215
554260
3000
美国有二亿五千万辆小汽车
09:17
So what you have
216
557260
2000
所以我们拥有的
09:19
is natural gas is the bridge fuel,
217
559260
3000
天然气是衔接燃料
09:22
is the way I see it.
218
562260
2000
我是这么认为
09:24
I don't have to worry
219
564260
2000
在我这个年纪 我没必要担心
09:26
about the bridge to where at my age.
220
566260
3000
天然气衔接到哪种燃料
09:29
(Laughter)
221
569260
2000
(笑声)
09:31
That's your concern.
222
571260
3000
这是你们要担心的问题
09:34
But when you look at the natural gas we have
223
574260
2000
然而 我们拥有的天然气
09:36
it could very well be
224
576260
2000
将会是非常好的
09:38
the bridge to natural gas,
225
578260
2000
未来衔接燃料
09:40
because you have plenty of natural gas.
226
580260
3000
因为它的储藏量丰富
09:43
But as I said, I'm for anything American.
227
583260
3000
但是正如我所说, 任何美国自己的东西我都接受
09:46
Now let me take you -- I've been a realist --
228
586260
3000
现在让我带你们--我曾是个现实主义者
09:49
I went from theorist early to realist.
229
589260
2000
我从以前的理论家变成现实主义者
09:51
I'm back to theorist again.
230
591260
2000
现在我又是理论家了
09:53
If you look at the world,
231
593260
3000
看看这个世界
09:56
you have methane hydrates in the ocean
232
596260
3000
各个大洲周围都有
09:59
around every continent.
233
599260
2000
甲烷水合物
10:01
And here you can see methane,
234
601260
3000
甲烷随处可见
10:04
if that's the way you're going to go,
235
604260
2000
假使要应用甲烷水合物
10:06
that there's plenty of methane --
236
606260
2000
那么那是相当充足的燃料
10:08
natural gas is methane,
237
608260
2000
天然气就是甲烷
10:10
methane and natural gas are interchangeable --
238
610260
2000
天然气和甲烷是可以相互转换的
10:12
but if you decide
239
612260
2000
但是如果你们决定
10:14
that you're going to use some methane --
240
614260
2000
你们就要用甲烷作为未来的能源
10:16
and I'm gone, so it's up to you --
241
616260
2000
我已经不在人世,所以决定权在你们
10:18
but we do have
242
618260
2000
不过我们确实有
10:20
plenty of methane hydrates.
243
620260
3000
相当丰富的甲烷化合物
10:23
So I think I've made my point
244
623260
3000
所以 我想我的论点已经很清楚了
10:26
that we have to get on our own resources in America.
245
626260
5000
我们要用我们美国自己的资源
10:31
If we do --
246
631260
3000
如果这样的话
10:34
it's costing us a billion dollars a day for oil.
247
634260
3000
就即将消耗每天十亿美元的石油
10:37
And yet, we have no energy plan.
248
637260
3000
而且 我们没有任何能源计划
10:40
So there's nothing going on
249
640260
3000
所以政府对能源作的规划
10:43
that impresses me
250
643260
3000
一点也
10:46
in Washington on that plan,
251
646260
3000
没有吸引我
10:49
other than I'm trying to focus
252
649260
2000
除了我关注的
10:51
on that eight million 18-wheelers.
253
651260
3000
18个轮子的八百万辆卡车
10:54
If we could do that,
254
654260
2000
如果我们能够这么做的话
10:56
I think we would take our first step
255
656260
2000
那么我认为我们即将开始我们能源计划的
10:58
to an energy plan.
256
658260
2000
第一步
11:00
If we did, we could see
257
660260
2000
如果我们可以的话,我们就能看到
11:02
that our own resources are easier to use
258
662260
3000
我们自己的资源比
11:05
than anybody can imagine.
259
665260
2000
任何人想象的都要方便使用
11:07
Thank you.
260
667260
2000
谢谢
11:09
(Applause)
261
669260
8000
(掌声)
11:17
Chris Anderson: Thanks for that.
262
677260
2000
Chris Anderson: 谢谢您的演讲
11:19
So from your point of view,
263
679260
2000
那么从您的观点来看
11:21
you had this great Pickens Plan
264
681260
2000
你有宏伟的Pickens计划
11:23
that was based on wind energy,
265
683260
3000
这个计划是以风能为基础的
11:26
and you abandoned it basically
266
686260
2000
而且你摈弃了它主要是
11:28
because the economics changed.
267
688260
2000
因为经济形势发生了变化
11:30
What happened?
268
690260
2000
发生了什么?
11:32
TBP: I lost 150 million dollars.
269
692260
2000
TBP: 我损失了一亿五千万美元
11:34
(Laughter)
270
694260
2000
(笑声)
11:36
That'll make you abandon something.
271
696260
3000
这就使得我们必须要抛弃某些东西
11:39
No, what happened to us, Chris,
272
699260
3000
而且,我们遭遇的是,Chiris,
11:42
is that power, it's priced off the margin.
273
702260
6000
以利润作为原则改变了我们的计划
11:48
And so the margin is natural gas.
274
708260
3000
而利润就是天然气
11:51
And at the time I went into the wind business,
275
711260
2000
而且当时我们正投资风能产业
11:53
natural gas was nine dollars.
276
713260
2000
天然气是九美金
11:55
Today it's two dollars and forty cents.
277
715260
3000
现在是2.4美元
11:58
You cannot do a wind deal
278
718260
2000
你不能用
12:00
under six dollars an MCF.
279
720260
2000
低于每千立方英尺六美金的价格做风能生意
12:02
CA: So what happened was
280
722260
2000
CA:所以实际上是
12:04
that, through increased ability
281
724260
4000
因为透过
12:08
to use fracking technology,
282
728260
2000
水力压裂科技的发展
12:10
the calculated reserves of natural gas kind of exploded
283
730260
3000
天然气的估计储备粮激增
12:13
and the price plummeted,
284
733260
3000
加上价格的暴跌
12:16
which made wind uncompetitive.
285
736260
2000
使得风能时期竞争力
12:18
In a nutshell that's what happened?
286
738260
2000
总结起来就是那样吗?
12:20
TBP: That's what happened.
287
740260
2000
TBP: 对,就是那样
12:22
We found out that we could go to the source rock,
288
742260
2000
我们发现水利压裂技术可以用在生油岩
12:24
which were the carboniferous shales in the basins.
289
744260
3000
也就是石炭系页岩盆地
12:27
The first one was Barnett Shale in Texas
290
747260
3000
第一个是德州的巴纳特页岩
12:30
and then the Marcellus up in the Northeast
291
750260
3000
接着是东北片区的包括纽约,宾州,西维吉尼亚的
12:33
across New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia;
292
753260
3000
马塞勒斯页岩
12:36
and Haynesville in Louisiana.
293
756260
2000
以及在路易斯安那州的海纳斯维尔页岩
12:38
This stuff is everywhere.
294
758260
2000
页岩到处都是
12:40
We are overwhelmed with natural gas.
295
760260
2000
天然气多到让我们欣喜若狂
12:42
CA: And now you're a big investor in that and bringing that to market?
296
762260
4000
CA: 现在你在这方面是个很大的投资者而且准备投入市场?
12:46
TBP: Well you say a big investor.
297
766260
2000
TBP: 你说对了,是个大的投资者
12:48
It's my life.
298
768260
2000
这就是我的人生
12:50
I'm a geologist, got out of school in '51,
299
770260
2000
我是个地质学家,1951年从学校毕业
12:52
and I've been in the industry my entire life.
300
772260
2000
我的一生都投入了这个产业
12:54
Now I do own stocks.
301
774260
3000
现在我有自己的股份
12:57
I'm not a big natural gas producer.
302
777260
3000
但我并不是一个大的天然气厂商
13:00
Somebody the other day said
303
780260
2000
过去有人说
13:02
I was the second largest natural gas producer in the United States.
304
782260
2000
我是美国第二大天然气生产商
13:04
Don't I wish.
305
784260
2000
我也希望是这样
13:06
But no, I'm not. I own stocks.
306
786260
3000
但我并不是 我只是持有股权
13:09
But I also am in the fueling business.
307
789260
3000
我也涉足燃料产业
13:12
CA: But natural gas is a fossil fuel.
308
792260
3000
CA:但天然气是种化石燃料
13:15
You burn it,
309
795260
2000
你燃烧它
13:17
you release CO2.
310
797260
2000
那么你就释放了CO2
13:19
So you believe in the threat of climate change.
311
799260
4000
既然你相信气候变暖
13:23
Why doesn't that prospect
312
803260
2000
为何你不担心
13:25
concern you?
313
805260
2000
这方面产生的问题呢?
13:27
TBP: Well you're going to have to use something.
314
807260
3000
TBP: 但是你必须要燃烧某些东西
13:30
What do you have to replace it?
315
810260
3000
你有什么可以替代它呢?
13:34
(Laughter)
316
814260
5000
(笑声)
13:39
CA: No, no. The argument that it's a bridge fuel makes sense,
317
819260
3000
CA: 不,不,争论在于我们未来的燃料
13:42
because the amount of CO2 per unit of energy
318
822260
4000
因为每单元能量的CO2的排放量
13:46
is lower than oil and coal, correct?
319
826260
3000
比石油和煤少,对吧?
13:49
And so everyone can be at least happy
320
829260
3000
因此 基于这点 大家至少会欣然接受
13:52
to see a shift from coal or oil to natural gas.
321
832260
3000
从煤或石油到天然气的转变
13:55
But if that's it
322
835260
2000
但是如果仅仅因为这个原因
13:57
and that becomes the reason
323
837260
2000
而且因为这样
13:59
that renewables don't get invested in,
324
839260
3000
使得可再生能源得不到投资
14:02
then, long-term, we're screwed anyway, right?
325
842260
3000
那么 长期下来 我们都会完蛋的 不是吗?
14:05
TBP: Well I'm not ready to give up,
326
845260
2000
TBP: 我再补充下
14:07
but Jim and I talked
327
847260
2000
Jim走时
14:09
there as he left,
328
849260
2000
我跟他有过交谈
14:11
and I said, "How do you feel about natural gas?"
329
851260
2000
我问道 你对天然气是怎么看的?
14:13
And he said, "Well it's a bridge fuel, is what it is."
330
853260
3000
他回答说 它是通向未来的衔接燃料 就这样
14:16
And I said, "Bridge to what?
331
856260
2000
我接着问 我们未来的燃料是什么
14:18
Where are we headed?"
332
858260
2000
我们的目标在哪
14:20
See but again, I told you, I don't have to worry with that.
333
860260
2000
看吧 正如我说过的,我不用担心这个问题
14:22
You all do.
334
862260
2000
这应该是你们担心的问题
14:24
CA: But I don't think that's right, Boone.
335
864260
2000
CA: Boone 但是我不认为这是对的
14:26
I think you're a person who believes in your legacy.
336
866260
3000
我认为你是个为后代树立典范的人
14:29
You've made the money you need.
337
869260
2000
你已经赚到了你需要的钱
14:31
You're one of the few people in a position
338
871260
3000
你是极少数
14:34
to really swing the debate.
339
874260
3000
能够影响走向的有力人士
14:37
Do you support the idea of some kind of price on carbon?
340
877260
3000
你支持关于碳的使用必然有代价的想法吗?
14:40
Does that make sense?
341
880260
2000
你认为有意义吗?
14:42
TBP: I don't like that
342
882260
2000
TBP:我不喜欢
14:44
because it ends up the government is going to run the program.
343
884260
3000
因为最终是政府来执行这个项目
14:47
I can tell you it will be a failure.
344
887260
2000
我可以告诉你这必定以失败告终
14:49
The government is not successful
345
889260
3000
政府在这些事情上
14:52
on these things.
346
892260
2000
不大成功
14:54
They just aren't, it's a bad deal.
347
894260
3000
它们就是无法办到 那是个坏主意
14:57
Look at Solyndra, or whatever it was.
348
897260
3000
看看索林卓太阳能公司吧,或者不管是什么
15:00
I mean, that was told to be a bad idea 10 times,
349
900260
2000
我的意思是,已经注定了会是个坏主意
15:02
they went ahead and did it anyway.
350
902260
2000
他们不管怎样还是执行
15:04
But that only blew out 500 million.
351
904260
3000
结果就是浪费了5亿美元
15:07
I think it's closer to a billion.
352
907260
3000
我认为接近十亿美元
15:10
But Chris, I think where we're headed,
353
910260
3000
但是Chris, 我认为
15:13
the long-term,
354
913260
3000
长期来说
15:16
I don't mind going back to nuclear.
355
916260
2000
可以采用核能
15:18
And I can tell you what the last page
356
918260
2000
我可以告诉你们
15:20
of the report that will take them five years to write
357
920260
2000
它们花上5年时间所撰写的核能报告的最后一页
15:22
will be.
358
922260
2000
内容是什么
15:24
One, don't build a reformer on a fault.
359
924260
3000
首先,不要在断层带上建造重组器
15:27
(Laughter)
360
927260
2000
(笑声)
15:29
And number two,
361
929260
2000
其次
15:31
do not build a reformer on the ocean.
362
931260
3000
不要在海洋中建造重组器
15:34
And now I think reformers are safe.
363
934260
3000
这样一来 我认为重组器就很安全了
15:37
Move them inland
364
937260
2000
把它们移向陆地
15:39
and on very stable ground
365
939260
4000
在相当稳定的土地上
15:43
and build the reformers.
366
943260
2000
建造重组器
15:45
There isn't anything wrong with nuke.
367
945260
2000
核能并没有什么错
15:47
You're going to have to have energy. There is no question.
368
947260
2000
我们必须要有能源,这毋庸置疑
15:49
You can't -- okay.
369
949260
2000
没有办法不用能源
15:51
CA: One of the questions from the audience
370
951260
3000
CA:有一个问题是观众提出来的
15:54
is, with fracking and the natural gas process,
371
954260
3000
是,随着水力压裂技术的发展和天然气使用的过程中
15:57
what about the problem of methane leaking from that,
372
957260
3000
那么甲烷的泄漏问题怎么解决
16:00
methane being a worse global warming gas
373
960260
2000
而且甲烷会是个
16:02
than CO2?
374
962260
2000
比CO2更严重的问题?
16:04
Is that a concern?
375
964260
2000
难道不用担心这点吗?
16:06
TBP: Fracking? What is fracking?
376
966260
2000
TBP: 水力鸭子? 什么是水力鸭子?
16:08
CA: Fracking.
377
968260
3000
CA: 水力压裂
16:11
TBP: I'm teasing.
378
971260
2000
TBP: 开玩笑的
16:13
(Laughter)
379
973260
2000
(笑声)
16:15
CA: We've got a little bit of accent incompatibility here, you know.
380
975260
4000
CA: 你知道的 我们在发音上有些不一致
16:19
TBP: No, let me tell you,
381
979260
2000
TBP: 听我说
16:21
I've told you what my age was.
382
981260
2000
我已经告诉你们我多大了
16:23
I got out of school in '51.
383
983260
2000
我1951年从学校毕业
16:25
I witnessed my first frack job
384
985260
2000
1953年我第一次参与水力压裂钻井工程
16:27
at border Texas in 1953.
385
987260
2000
在德克萨斯州的边界上
16:29
Fracking came out in '47,
386
989260
2000
水力压裂技术发明在1947年
16:31
and don't believe for a minute
387
991260
2000
我真不敢相信
16:33
when our president gets up there
388
993260
2000
我们的总统到了那儿
16:35
and says the Department of Energy 30 years ago
389
995260
3000
说水力压裂技术是在30年前
16:38
developed fracking.
390
998260
2000
由能源部发明的
16:40
I don't know what in the hell he's talking about.
391
1000260
3000
我真不知道他到底在瞎扯什么
16:43
I mean seriously, the Department of Energy
392
1003260
2000
我说真的, 那是能源部
16:45
did not have anything to do with fracking.
393
1005260
3000
不知道什么是水力压裂钻井技术
16:48
The first frack job was in '47.
394
1008260
2000
第一件水利压裂工程是在1947年
16:50
I saw my first one in '53.
395
1010260
3000
我第一次参与是在1953年
16:53
I've fracked over 3,000 wells in my life.
396
1013260
3000
我这一生已经水力压裂钻超过3000口井
16:56
Never had a problem
397
1016260
2000
从来没有
16:58
with messing up an aquifer or anything else.
398
1018260
2000
破坏过水层或者引发任何问题
17:00
Now the largest aquifer in North America
399
1020260
3000
现在北美最大的含水层
17:03
is from Midland, Texas to the South Dakota border,
400
1023260
3000
是从德州的米德兰市到难达科塔州边界
17:06
across eight states --
401
1026260
2000
横贯了8个州
17:08
big aquifer:
402
1028260
2000
这片广大的含水层被称为
17:10
Ogallala, Triassic age.
403
1030260
3000
奥加拉拉含水层 形成于三叠纪
17:13
There had to have been 800,000 wells fracked
404
1033260
3000
在那片含水层中
17:16
in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas
405
1036260
3000
奥克拉荷马州, 德州, 以及堪萨斯州已经有超过80万口天然气井
17:19
in that aquifer.
406
1039260
2000
是以水力压裂钻井
17:21
There's no problems.
407
1041260
2000
都没有出现过问题
17:23
I don't understand why
408
1043260
2000
我不理解为什么
17:25
the media is focused on Eastern Pennsylvania.
409
1045260
4000
媒体要聚焦在宾州东部
17:29
CA: All right, so you don't support a carbon tax of any kind
410
1049260
3000
CA: 好的 所以你不支持任何征收任何形式的碳税
17:32
or a price on carbon.
411
1052260
2000
或碳费
17:34
Your picture then I guess
412
1054260
3000
从你的蓝图中我猜是
17:37
of how the world eventually gets off fossil fuels
413
1057260
2000
世界最终摆脱化石燃料
17:39
is through innovation ultimately,
414
1059260
3000
是由创新来达成
17:42
that we'll someday make solar and nuclear cost competitive?
415
1062260
5000
也就意味着我们有一天会将太阳能与核能会发展到具有成本的竞争力吗?
17:47
TBP: Solar and wind, Jim and I agreed on that in 13 seconds.
416
1067260
4000
TBP: Jim和我在太阳能和风能仅仅只是认同了13秒左右的时间
17:51
That is, it's going to be a small part,
417
1071260
2000
那实在太小了
17:53
because you can't rely on it.
418
1073260
2000
因为那根本不可靠
17:55
CA: So how does the world get off fossil fuels?
419
1075260
2000
CA:那么整个世界到底如何摆脱化石燃料?
17:57
TBP: How do we get there?
420
1077260
2000
TBP: 我们如何摆脱?
17:59
We have so much natural gas,
421
1079260
2000
我们有丰富的天然气储量
18:01
a day will not come
422
1081260
2000
你们无所谓的
18:03
where you say, "Well let's don't use that anymore."
423
1083260
2000
"不再使用化石燃料"的那天是不会到来的
18:05
You'll keep using it. It is the cleanest of all.
424
1085260
3000
会一直使用 它是最清洁的能源
18:08
And if you look at California,
425
1088260
2000
看看加州
18:10
they use 2,500 buses.
426
1090260
2000
他们有2500辆巴士
18:12
LAMTA have been on natural gas
427
1092260
4000
洛杉矶大都会运输署采用天然气巴士
18:16
for 25 years.
428
1096260
2000
已经有25年了
18:18
The Ft. Worth T
429
1098260
2000
沃斯堡大众运输
18:20
has been on it for 25 years.
430
1100260
2000
采用天然气巴士也已经有25年了
18:22
Why? Air quality was the reason they used natural gas
431
1102260
3000
为什么? 维护空气品质是他们采用天然气
18:25
and got away from diesel.
432
1105260
2000
而不非柴油的原因
18:27
Why are all the trash trucks today in Southern California
433
1107260
2000
如今为何南加州全部的垃圾车都
18:29
on natural gas?
434
1109260
2000
采用天然气呢?
18:31
It's because of air quality.
435
1111260
2000
同样是为了维护空气品质
18:33
I know what you're telling me, and I'm not disagreeing with you.
436
1113260
3000
我理解你们在给我传达什么信息 同时我也不反对你们的观点
18:36
How in the hell can we get off the natural gas at some point?
437
1116260
3000
我们到底要如何摆脱天然气?
18:39
And I say, that is your problem.
438
1119260
3000
我的回答是那是你们应该解决的问题
18:42
(Laughter)
439
1122260
2000
(笑声)
18:44
CA: All right,
440
1124260
2000
CA:好吧
18:46
so it's the bridge fuel.
441
1126260
2000
天然气是作为衔接燃料的
18:48
What is at the other end of that bridge
442
1128260
2000
至于衔接到何处
18:50
is for this audience to figure out.
443
1130260
2000
是在座各位要解决的问题
18:52
If someone comes to you with a plan
444
1132260
2000
如果有人找到你们并向你们提出一个
18:54
that really looks like it might be part of this solution,
445
1134260
2000
看上去可能是解决方案的一部分
18:56
are you ready to invest in those technologies,
446
1136260
3000
你会投资那些技术
18:59
even if they aren't maximized for profits,
447
1139260
2000
即使那不是很有利润
19:01
they might be maximized for the future health of the planet?
448
1141260
3000
但可能会为地球生灵的未来福祉带来最大的利益吗?
19:04
TBP: I lost 150 million on the wind, okay.
449
1144260
3000
TBP:我在风能投资上损失了1亿5千万了
19:07
Yeah, sure, I'm game for it.
450
1147260
3000
所以 当然了 我还是会投资的
19:10
Because, again,
451
1150260
3000
原因我再说一次
19:13
I'm trying to get energy solved for America.
452
1153260
4000
我一直在试着解决美国的能源问题
19:17
And anything American
453
1157260
3000
只要是任何出自美国的东西
19:20
will work for me.
454
1160260
2000
我都认同
19:22
CA: Boone, I really, really appreciate you coming here,
455
1162260
2000
CA: Boone 我真的非常感谢你来到这
19:24
engaging in this conversation.
456
1164260
2000
来作这场演讲
19:26
I think there's a lot of people who will want to engage with you.
457
1166260
3000
我想很多人都想要和你交流
19:29
And that was a real gift you gave this audience.
458
1169260
2000
你给听众们的演说真的十分宝贵
19:31
Thank you so much. (TBP: You bet, Chris. Thank you.)
459
1171260
3000
非常感谢 (TBP: 不客气 谢谢)
19:34
(Applause)
460
1174260
2000
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7