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翻译人员: Gary Wang
校对人员: Yongming Luo
00:25
What I'm going to do, in the spirit of collaborative creativity,
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现在我将要做的,在协作创新精神的影响下,
00:28
is simply repeat many of the points
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只是简单地重复
00:31
that the three people before me have already made,
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前面3位已经说过的许多观点。
00:34
but do them --
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但是就这样去做吧 ――
00:36
this is called "creative collaboration;"
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这就叫作创造性协作;
00:38
it's actually called "borrowing" --
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实际上叫借用(拿来主义)。
00:41
but do it through a particular perspective,
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但是从一个独特的角度来做,
00:43
and that is to ask about the role of users and consumers
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也就是问问用户和消费者
00:46
in this emerging world of
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在这个逐渐显现的
00:48
collaborative creativity
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协作创新世界里面所扮演的角色,
00:50
that Jimmy and others have talked about.
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这也是吉米和其他几位讲过的。
00:53
Let me just ask you, to start with,
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作为开头,让我来问你们,
00:55
this simple question:
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这个简单的问题:
00:57
who invented the mountain bike?
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谁发明了山地车?
00:59
Because traditional economic theory would say,
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传统的经济理论会说,
01:02
well, the mountain bike was probably invented by some big bike corporation
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嗯,山地车很有可能是某个大型自行车公司发明的,
01:05
that had a big R&D lab
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因为它有一个很大的研发中心
01:07
where they were thinking up new projects,
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来琢磨出新项目,
01:09
and it came out of there. It didn't come from there.
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于是山地车就产生了。但是山地车不是从那里创造出来的。
01:12
Another answer might be, well, it came from a sort of lone genius
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另外一种回答可能是,嗯,山地车来自于一个孤独的天才。
01:15
working in his garage, who,
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他在他的车库里面,
01:17
working away on different kinds of bikes, comes up
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研究了很多种不同的自行车,
01:19
with a bike out of thin air.
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然后就凭空想像出了这么一种新型的自行车。
01:21
It didn't come from there. The mountain bike
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但是山地车也不是从那里创造出来的。山地车
01:23
came from users, came from young users,
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来自于用户,来自于年轻的用户,
01:27
particularly a group in Northern California,
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特别是在北加州的那一群。
01:29
who were frustrated with traditional racing bikes,
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他们对传统的赛车很灰心丧气,
01:32
which were those sort of bikes that Eddy Merckx rode,
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就那种埃迪•墨克斯(顶尖自行车赛手)
01:35
or your big brother, and they're very glamorous.
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或者你们的大哥骑的赛车,那些赛车过于迷人了。
01:37
But also frustrated with the bikes that your dad rode,
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同样他们也不满于你们的老爸骑的自行车,
01:40
which sort of had big handlebars like that, and they were too heavy.
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它们有着很大的把手,并且太重了。
01:43
So, they got the frames from these big bikes,
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于是他们就拿来那些大自行车的骨架,
01:45
put them together with the gears from the racing bikes,
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赛车的挂档系统,
01:48
got the brakes from motorcycles,
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摩托车的刹车,
01:52
and sort of mixed and matched various ingredients.
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把这些部分拼在一起搭建起来。
01:54
And for the first, I don't know, three to five years of their life,
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在起先的大概3到5年,
01:57
mountain bikes were known as "clunkers."
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山地车被称为“咔咔车”(听起来像年久失修的旧机器)。
01:59
And they were just made in a community of bikers,
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并且也只有
02:02
mainly in Northern California.
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主要在北加州的一个自行车手团体中使用。
02:04
And then one of these companies that was importing parts
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然后一个给咔咔车进货零配件的公司
02:07
for the clunkers decided to set up in business,
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决定新开一个生意,
02:09
start selling them to other people,
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开始向其他人销售,
02:11
and gradually another company emerged out of that, Marin,
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慢慢地一个新的公司“马林(Marin)”就形成了。
02:14
and it probably was, I don't know,
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大概过了
02:16
10, maybe even 15, years,
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10年,甚至15年,
02:18
before the big bike companies
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其他的大型自行车公司
02:20
realized there was a market.
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才醒悟过来:这里原来有个市场。
02:22
Thirty years later,
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30年后,
02:24
mountain bike sales
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山地车的销售额,
02:26
and mountain bike equipment
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和山地车设备,
02:28
account for 65 percent of bike sales in America.
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占据了美洲自行车市场的65%。
02:30
That's 58 billion dollars.
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也就是说,580亿美元。
02:33
This is a category entirely created by consumers
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这是一个完全靠消费者创造的产业,
02:36
that would not have been created by the mainstream bike market
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之所以它不会被主流自行车市场创造
02:39
because they couldn't see the need,
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是因为他们不可能看到这个需求,
02:41
the opportunity;
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这个机会,
02:43
they didn't have the incentive to innovate.
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所以他们不具有创新的动机。
02:46
The one thing I think I disagree with
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约柴的演讲中
02:48
about Yochai's presentation
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有一点我不同意,
02:50
is when he said the Internet causes
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他说互联网所产生的
02:52
this distributive capacity for innovation to come alive.
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分布的能力使得创新更有活力。
02:55
It's when the Internet combines
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只有在互联网
02:58
with these kinds of passionate pro-am consumers --
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和这些有激情的有专业精神的业余消费者——
03:01
who are knowledgeable; they've got the incentive to innovate;
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有知识,有创新的动机,
03:04
they've got the tools; they want to --
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有工具,有渴望——相结合的时候,
03:06
that you get this kind of explosion
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你才能看到这种爆发性的
03:08
of creative collaboration.
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创造性协作。
03:11
And out of that, you get the need for the kind of things
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从这中间,你也感到
03:14
that Jimmy was talking about, which is our new kinds of organization,
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对于吉米所讲的一类东西的需求,也就是我们新的组织形式,
03:17
or a better way to put it:
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换种更好的方式说:
03:19
how do we organize ourselves without organizations?
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我们怎么样能够不用某种组织形式来组织我们自己?
03:22
That's now possible; you don't need an organization to be organized,
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现在已经有可能,你不需要一个组织形式来形成秩序,
03:26
to achieve large and complex tasks,
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来完成大型和复杂的任务,
03:28
like innovating new software programs.
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比如开发新的软件程序。
03:31
So this is a huge challenge
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所以这对我们认为的创造力的来源
03:34
to the way we think creativity comes about.
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是一个巨大的挑战。
03:38
The traditional view, still enshrined
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传统的观点,仍然主宰着
03:40
in much of the way that we think about creativity
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我们思考创造力的模式
03:43
-- in organizations, in government --
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——在组织结构中,在政府中-
03:45
is that creativity is about special people:
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认为创新靠的是一群特别的人。
03:48
wear baseball caps the wrong way round,
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反戴着棒球帽,
03:50
come to conferences like this, in special places,
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像我这样来参加会议,在特殊的场所,
03:53
elite universities, R&D labs in the forests, water,
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名牌大学,森林里面的研发实验室,水,
03:58
maybe special rooms in companies painted funny colors,
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或者在公司里面粉刷成怪异的颜色的特殊房间,
04:01
you know, bean bags, maybe the odd table-football table.
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你知道吧,豆包沙发,可能还有奇怪的桌子——足球桌。
04:05
Special people, special places, think up special ideas,
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特别的人,特别的地方,想出特别的点子,
04:08
then you have a pipeline that takes the ideas
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然后你还有一个渠道把这些点子实现
04:10
down to the waiting consumers, who are passive.
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并输送给消费者,他们在那里被动地等着。
04:14
They can say "yes" or "no" to the invention.
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他们对这个发明可能说“好”或者“不要”,
04:16
That's the idea of creativity.
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那就是一般认为的创造性。
04:18
What's the policy recommendation out of that
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从这种概念出发会产生什么样的政策建议,
04:20
if you're in government, or you're running a large company?
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如果你在政府部门,或者在经营一个大公司?
04:24
More special people, more special places.
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更多的特别的人,更特别的地方。
04:27
Build creative clusters in cities;
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在城市中建立有创造力的群体,
04:29
create more R&D parks, so on and so forth.
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更多研发园,等等。
04:32
Expand the pipeline down to the consumers.
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扩展一直延伸到消费者的渠道。
04:35
Well this view, I think, is increasingly wrong.
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其实,这种观点,我认为,已经越来越错误。
04:38
I think it's always been wrong,
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我认为它一直就是错误的,
04:40
because I think always creativity has been highly collaborative,
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因为我一直认为创造力是高度合作的,
04:43
and it's probably been largely interactive.
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并且很可能大部分是互动的。
04:46
But it's increasingly wrong, and one of the reasons it's wrong
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但是它越来越错了,其中一个错的原因
04:49
is that the ideas are flowing back up the pipeline.
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是创意在渠道中的反方向回流。
04:52
The ideas are coming back from the consumers,
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创意开始从消费者那一端产生并回流,
04:54
and they're often ahead of the producers.
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并且它们经常超前于生产商。
04:57
Why is that?
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为什么会这样?
04:59
Well, one issue
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嗯,一个原因
05:02
is that radical innovation,
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是突破性创新,
05:04
when you've got ideas that
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当你的点子
05:06
affect a large number of technologies or people,
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影响到一大批技术或者人时,
05:10
have a great deal of uncertainty attached to them.
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产生的后果连带着极大的不确定性。
05:12
The payoffs to innovation are greatest
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创新的不确定性越大,
05:14
where the uncertainty is highest.
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回报越高。
05:17
And when you get a radical innovation,
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并且当你有一项突破性创新,
05:19
it's often very uncertain how it can be applied.
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对于它的应用往往是极其不确定的。
05:22
The whole history of telephony
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整个电话技术的发展史
05:24
is a story of dealing with that uncertainty.
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就是一个对付不确定性的故事。
05:28
The very first landline telephones,
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发明第一条电话线的时候,
05:30
the inventors thought
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发明人的原设想是
05:32
that they would be used for people to listen in
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用来让人从外面听到
05:34
to live performances
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伦敦西区剧院里面的
05:36
from West End theaters.
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现场表演。
05:38
When the mobile telephone companies invented SMS,
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手机公司发明短信技术的时候,
05:41
they had no idea what it was for;
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根本不知道能用它来干什么,
05:43
it was only when that technology got into the hands
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一直等到这个技术到了
05:45
of teenage users
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年轻用户手上的时候,
05:47
that they invented the use.
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他们才发明了它的用处。
05:49
So the more radical the innovation,
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所以说越是突破性的创新,
05:52
the more the uncertainty,
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越具有不确定性,
05:54
the more you need innovation in use
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你就越需要使用中的创新
05:56
to work out what a technology is for.
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来发现下一个技术能用来干什么。
05:59
All of our patents, our entire approach
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所有我们的专利,我们的整个
06:02
to patents and invention, is based on the idea
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获得专利和创造发明的方式都是基于
06:05
that the inventor knows what the invention is for;
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发明者知道这个发明是干什么,
06:08
we can say what it's for.
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我们能定义它的用处,这个概念上的。
06:10
More and more, the inventors of things
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逐渐地,很多东西的发明者
06:12
will not be able to say that in advance.
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在事先将不能这么说了。
06:14
It will be worked out in use,
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它将在使用过程中,
06:16
in collaboration with users.
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在与用户的协作中被发掘出来。
06:19
We like to think that invention is
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我们习惯地认为发明
06:21
a sort of moment of creation:
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是一种好像是短时间内产生的创造。
06:24
there is a moment of birth when someone comes up with an idea.
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某人想出一个点子就像是诞生婴儿的那一刻一样。
06:27
The truth is that most creativity
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事实上大部分的创造
06:30
is cumulative and collaborative;
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是逐渐积累协作产生的,
06:32
like Wikipedia, it develops over a long period of time.
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比如维基百科,它发展了很长一段时间。
06:37
The second reason why users are more and more important
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为什么用户越来越重要的第二个原因是,
06:40
is that they are the source of big, disruptive innovations.
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他们是巨大的突破性创新的源头。
06:44
If you want to find the big new ideas,
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如果你想找到大的新的点子,
06:47
it's often difficult to find them in mainstream markets,
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往往从主流市场
06:50
in big organizations.
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或大机构中很难找到。
06:53
And just look inside large organizations
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只要往大组织机构中看看,
06:55
and you'll see why that is so.
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你就能发现为什么会这样。
06:57
So, you're in a big corporation.
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设想一下,你在一个大公司,
07:01
You're obviously keen to go up the corporate ladder.
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你当然非常想沿着公司的等级阶梯向上爬。
07:04
Do you go into your board and say,
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你会走进董事会这样说吗,
07:06
"Look, I've got a fantastic idea
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你们看,我有一个非常好的点子,
07:08
for an embryonic product
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在边际市场做这样一个早期产品,
07:10
in a marginal market,
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面向
07:12
with consumers we've never dealt with before,
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我们从来没有应付过的消费者,
07:15
and I'm not sure it's going to have a big payoff, but it could be really, really big in the future?"
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我不确定会不会有大的回报,但是也许有可能在未来的回报非常非常大?
07:18
No, what you do, is you go in and you say,
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不会的。你会做的是,你走进去,你说,
07:21
"I've got a fantastic idea for an incremental innovation
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我有一个非常好的点子,对我们的现有产品进行一个渐进性的创新改良,
07:24
to an existing product we sell through existing channels
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从现有渠道
07:27
to existing users, and I can guarantee
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卖给现有用户,并且我能保证
07:29
you get this much return out of it over the next three years."
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你们能在3年内获得这么这么多的回报。
07:33
Big corporations have an in-built tendency
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大公司有一个内在的倾向
07:35
to reinforce past success.
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要去强化过去的成功。
07:37
They've got so much sunk in it
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它们陷入其中不可自拔,
07:39
that it's very difficult for them to spot
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以至于很难发现
07:42
emerging new markets. Emerging new markets, then,
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逐渐显现的新兴市场。那么新兴市场
07:45
are the breeding grounds for passionate users.
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就成了有激情的用户的成长温床。
07:48
Best example:
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举一个最好的例子:
07:50
who in the music industry,
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在30年前的音乐产业中,
07:52
30 years ago, would have said,
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有谁会说:
07:55
"Yes, let's invent a musical form
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“好,让我们发明一种音乐形式,
07:58
which is all about dispossessed black men
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专门反映那些
08:01
in ghettos expressing their frustration
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生活在贫民窟的无家可归的黑人
08:03
with the world through a form of music
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对这个世界的无奈和困惑,
08:05
that many people find initially quite difficult to listen to.
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通过一种很多人一开始都很难听得下去的音乐形式。
08:08
That sounds like a winner; we'll go with it."
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这听起来好像能火,我们行动吧。”
08:11
(Laughter).
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(大家笑)
08:12
So what happens? Rap music is created by the users.
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而事实是怎样的?说唱音乐是用户自己创造的。
08:15
They do it on their own tapes, with their own recording equipment;
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他们用自己的录音设备,录在自己的磁带上,
08:18
they distribute it themselves.
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自己发行。
08:19
30 years later,
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30年后,
08:21
rap music is the dominant musical form of popular culture --
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说唱音乐成了流行文化的主导音乐形式――
08:24
would never have come from the big companies.
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这是永远不可能从大公司产生的。
08:26
Had to start -- this is the third point --
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必须来自于 ――这是第三点――
08:29
with these pro-ams.
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有专业精神的业余人士。
08:31
This is the phrase that I've used in
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这个词组我曾经在
08:33
some stuff which I've done
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给伦敦的一个
08:35
with a think tank in London called Demos,
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叫作德莫斯的智囊公司做的一些东西里面用过,
08:37
where we've been looking at these people who are amateurs --
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在那里我们曾经研究过这类人,他们是业余的――
08:40
i.e., they do it for the love of it --
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也就是说,他们是因为热爱某件事情――
08:43
but they want to do it to very high standards.
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但是他们想把它做到非常高的标准。
08:45
And across a whole range of fields --
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而且涉及到一系列的领域――
08:47
from software, astronomy,
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从软件,天文,
08:51
natural sciences,
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自然科学,
08:53
vast areas of leisure and culture
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到广阔的休闲和文化领域
08:55
like kite-surfing, so on and so forth --
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比如风筝冲浪,等等――
08:58
you find people who want to do things because they love it,
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你们会发现这些人是因为热爱而想做那些事情,
09:02
but they want to do these things to very high standards.
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但是他们想把这些事情做到极其高的水准。
09:05
They work at their leisure, if you like.
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他们在休闲中工作,你可以这么说。
09:07
They take their leisure very seriously:
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他们非常严肃地对待他们的闲暇时间:
09:09
they acquire skills; they invest time;
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他们获取技能,他们投资时间,
09:12
they use technology that's getting cheaper -- it's not just the Internet:
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他们使用越来越便宜的技术:不光是互联网,
09:15
cameras, design technology,
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照相机,设计技术,
09:18
leisure technology, surfboards, so on and so forth.
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休闲技术,冲浪板,等等。
09:21
Largely through globalization,
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主要由于全球化,
09:23
a lot of this equipment has got a lot cheaper.
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许多的这些设备已经便宜了很多。
09:26
More knowledgeable consumers, more educated,
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消费者越有知识,受过的教育越多,
09:29
more able to connect with one another,
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就越能够与其他人联合,
09:31
more able to do things together.
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更能够一起做事情。
09:33
Consumption, in that sense, is an expression
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消费,在这种意义上说,
09:35
of their productive potential.
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是他们的生产潜力的表达。
09:37
Why, we found, people were interested in this,
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为什么,我们发现,人们会对这个有兴趣,
09:41
is that at work they don't feel very expressed.
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是因为在工作中他们感到没有充分发挥。
09:44
They don't feel as if they're doing something that really matters to them,
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他们觉得他们所工作的事情好像不是他们真正在乎的,
09:47
so they pick up these kinds of activities.
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所以他们拾掇起这类活动。
09:50
This has huge organizational implications
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这对于
09:52
for very large areas of life.
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生活中一大片领域都有组织结构上的冲击。
09:54
Take astronomy as an example,
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拿天文学来作例子,
09:57
which Yochai has already mentioned.
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约柴已经提过的。
10:00
Twenty years ago, 30 years ago,
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20年前,30年前,
10:02
only big professional astronomers
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只有高深的专业天文学家
10:05
with very big telescopes could see far into space.
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才有很长大的天文望远镜来看到宇宙的远处。
10:09
And there's a big telescope in Northern England called Jodrell Bank,
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在北英格兰的约德瑞•班克有一个很长大的天文望远镜,
10:12
and when I was a kid, it was amazing,
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当我还是个小孩的时候,觉得非常神奇,
10:14
because the moon shots would take off, and this thing would move on rails.
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因为它可以对月亮进行近距离拍摄,并且这个东西还能在轨道上移动。
10:17
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并且它非常地大――绝对是一个庞然大物。
10:20
Now, six
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现在,6个
10:23
amateur astronomers, working with the Internet,
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业余天文爱好者,通过互联网,
10:25
with Dobsonian digital telescopes --
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和多布森式数字天文望远镜
10:27
which are pretty much open source --
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(基本上是开源的),
10:30
with some light sensors
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再用一些过去10年开发出来的光学传感器,
10:32
developed over the last 10 years, the Internet --
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以及互联网――
10:34
they can do what Jodrell Bank could only do 30 years ago.
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他们就能做30年前只有约德瑞•班克才能做的事情。
10:38
So here in astronomy, you have this vast explosion
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所以现在天文学界,你就有了
10:41
of new productive resources.
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新的生产力资源的巨大爆发。
10:43
The users can be producers.
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用户也可以成为生产者。
10:46
What does this mean, then, for our
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这种现象,那么,对于我们的
10:48
organizational landscape?
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组织结构的前景意味着什么?
10:50
Well, just imagine a world,
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呃,让我们来暂时想象这样一个世界,
10:52
for the moment, divided into two camps.
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它被分成两个阵营。
10:56
Over here, you've got the old, traditional corporate model:
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这一边,你有这个旧的传统的公司模式。
10:59
special people, special places;
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特别的人,特别的地方,
11:01
patent it, push it down the pipeline
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申请到专利,通过已有渠道推送到
11:03
to largely waiting, passive consumers.
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基本上是等待着的被动的消费者。
11:06
Over here, let's imagine we've got
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这一边,让我们想象我们有
11:08
Wikipedia, Linux, and beyond -- open source.
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维基百科,Linux, 和更多的――开放的资源。
11:12
This is open; this is closed.
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这边是开放的,这边是封闭的,
11:14
This is new; this is traditional.
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这边是新的,这边是传统的。
11:16
Well, the first thing you can say, I think with certainty,
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嗯,第一个你可以说的是,我认为肯定是
11:19
is what Yochai has said already --
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约柴已经谈到的――
11:21
is there is a great big struggle
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这两种组织形式之间
11:23
between those two organizational forms.
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有着非常大的冲突。
11:25
These people over there will do everything they can
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那边的那批人会尽其所能
11:28
to stop these kinds of organizations succeeding,
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来阻挡这种组织的成功,
11:31
because they're threatened by them.
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因为他们受到对方的威胁。
11:33
And so the debates about
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于是就产生了对于
11:36
copyright, digital rights, so on and so forth --
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版权,数字版权,等等的争辩――
11:40
these are all about trying to stifle, in my view,
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所有这些都是在企图扼杀,在我看来,
11:43
these kinds of organizations.
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这种类型的组织。
11:45
What we're seeing is a complete corruption
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我们现在正看到的是一个完全腐败的
11:48
of the idea of patents and copyright.
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专利和版权的概念。
11:50
Meant to be a way to incentivize invention,
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本该是一种刺激发明创造的机制,
11:54
meant to be a way to orchestrate the dissemination of knowledge,
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本该是一种协调知识传播的机制,
11:57
they are increasingly being used by large companies
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但是它们越来越被大公司
12:00
to create thickets of patents
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用来制造专利壁垒
12:02
to prevent innovation taking place.
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来阻止发明创造。
12:04
Let me just give you two examples.
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让我给你们讲两个例子。
12:07
The first is: imagine yourself going to a venture capitalist
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第一个,想象你自己走到一个风险投资商面前,
12:10
and saying, "I've got a fantastic idea.
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说:“我有一个非常好的点子。
12:12
I've invented this brilliant new program
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我发明了这个超级棒的新程序,
12:15
that is much, much better than Microsoft Outlook."
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比微软的Outlook 好得多了去了。
12:19
Which venture capitalist in their right mind is going to give you any money to set up a venture
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有哪一个脑袋还正常的风险投资商会给你钱来设立一个公司
12:23
competing with Microsoft, with Microsoft Outlook? No one.
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来与微软,与微软的Outlook 竞争?没有人。
12:26
That is why the competition with Microsoft is bound to come --
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这就是为什么和微软的竞争肯定会来自于,
12:29
will only come --
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也只能是来自于,
12:31
from an open-source kind of project.
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开放源代码类型的项目。
12:33
So, there is a huge competitive argument
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因此,现在就有一个很有争辩力的观点,
12:35
about sustaining the capacity
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要支持
12:37
for open-source and consumer-driven innovation,
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开放资源和消费者驱动的创新,
12:40
because it's one of the greatest
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因为它是反垄断的最有
12:42
competitive levers against monopoly.
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竞争力的杠杆之一。
12:45
There'll be huge professional arguments as well.
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当然也有很权威的来自于各专业的观点。
12:48
Because the professionals, over here
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因为这些专业人士,在这边的
12:50
in these closed organizations --
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这些封闭的组织之中――
12:52
they might be academics; they might be programmers;
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他们可能是学者,他们可能是程序员,
12:54
they might be doctors; they might be journalists --
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他们可能是医生,他们可能是记者
12:57
my former profession --
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(我以前的职业)――
12:59
say, "No, no -- you can't trust these people over here."
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他们说,“不行不行。你不能信任这边的这些人。”
13:03
When I started in journalism --
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当我开始进入记者行业的时候
13:05
Financial Times, 20 years ago --
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(金融时报,20年前),
13:09
it was very, very exciting
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看到别人
13:11
to see someone reading the newspaper.
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看报纸是让我非常兴奋的。
13:13
And you'd kind of look over their shoulder on the Tube
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于是你在地铁里面就有点像监视别人一样,
13:15
to see if they were reading your article.
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去看看他们是不是在阅读你写的文章。
13:18
Usually they were reading the share prices,
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通常他们是在看股票价格,
13:20
and the bit of the paper with your article on
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而你的文章所在的那一页报纸
13:22
was on the floor, or something like that,
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被铺在地上,或者类似的地方,
13:24
and you know, "For heaven's sake, what are they doing!
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于是你很自然就会想:“天哪,他们在干什么!
13:26
They're not reading my brilliant article!"
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他们居然不是在阅读我写的漂亮文章!”
13:29
And we allowed users, readers,
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并且我们提供了
13:32
two places where they could contribute to the paper:
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两个地方给用户和读者来发表东西在报纸上。
13:34
the letters page, where they could write a letter in,
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读者来信版块,在那里他们可以写一封信进来,
13:37
and we would condescend to them, cut it in half,
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我们就委屈一下,把它砍一半,
13:39
and print it three days later.
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然后3天之后印刷出来。
13:41
Or the op-ed page, where if they knew the editor --
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或者个人评论版块,如果他们认识编辑
13:43
had been to school with him, slept with his wife --
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(什么一起上过学啦,睡了他的老婆啦),
13:45
they could write an article for the op-ed page.
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他们就可以在个人评论版块发表文章。
13:48
Those were the two places.
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就那两个地方。
13:50
Shock, horror: now, the readers want to be writers and publishers.
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震惊,恐怖:现在读者自己想成为作家和出版商。
13:54
That's not their role; they're supposed to read what we write.
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那不是他们的角色,他们本来是应该只看我们所写的东西的。
13:57
But they don't want to be journalists. The journalists think
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但是他们并不想成为记者。记者们以为
13:59
that the bloggers want to be journalists;
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那些博客写手想成为记者,
14:01
they don't want to be journalists; they just want to have a voice.
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其实他们不想,他们只想发出自己的声音。
14:03
They want to, as Jimmy said, they want to have a dialogue, a conversation.
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他们想,就像吉米所说,他们想有对话,有讨论交流。
14:06
They want to be part of that flow of information.
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他们想成为信息流动中的一部分。
14:10
What's happening there is that the whole domain
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那里所发生的情况是
14:12
of creativity is expanding.
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整个创造力领域在扩张。
14:14
So, there's going to be a tremendous struggle.
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于是也将产生极其严重的冲突。
14:17
But, also, there's going to be tremendous movement
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但是,同时,也会有
14:20
from the open to the closed.
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从开放走向封闭的强烈趋势。
14:23
What you'll see, I think, is two things that are critical,
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你们将会看到,我认为,两个关键的东西,
14:26
and these, I think, are two challenges
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而它们,我认为,
14:28
for the open movement.
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将是开放资源运动要面对的两个挑战。
14:30
The first is:
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第一个是:
14:32
can we really survive on volunteers?
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我们能依靠志愿者而生存下去吗?
14:35
If this is so critical,
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如果这是如此生死攸关,
14:37
do we not need it funded, organized, supported
329
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难道我们不需要它有资金来源,有组织形式,
14:40
in much more structured ways?
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由一个更加结构化的方式来支持?
14:42
I think the idea of creating the Red Cross
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我认为那个建立一个
14:44
for information and knowledge is a fantastic idea,
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信息和知识的红十字会的点子是一个非常好的点子,
14:47
but can we really organize that, just on volunteers?
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但是我们真的能组织起来吗,只凭志愿者?
14:51
What kind of changes do we need in public policy
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我们需要在公共政策
14:53
and funding to make that possible?
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和资金赞助中做什么样的改变来使这成为可能?
14:55
What's the role of the BBC,
336
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比如说,英国广播电视台BBC的角色是什么,
14:57
for instance, in that world?
337
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在那个世界里面?
14:59
What should be the role of public policy?
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公共政策的角色应该是什么?
15:01
And finally, what I think you will see
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最后,我认为你们能看到的
15:04
is the intelligent, closed organizations
340
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是聪明的封闭的组织
15:07
moving increasingly in the open direction.
341
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开始逐渐走向开放。
15:10
So it's not going to be a contest between two camps,
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所以,这将不是两个阵营之间的对垒,
15:13
but, in between them, you'll find all sorts of interesting places
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而是在它们之间,你会发现
15:16
that people will occupy.
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人们占据着各种各样的有趣的地盘。
15:18
New organizational models coming about,
345
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新的组织结构模式将产生,
15:21
mixing closed and open in tricky ways.
346
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以奇特的方式混合着封闭和开放的特点。
15:24
It won't be so clear-cut; it won't be Microsoft versus Linux --
347
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它不会那么清晰和明确,不会像微软对抗Linux――
15:28
there'll be all sorts of things in between.
348
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那中间将有各种各样的东西。
15:30
And those organizational models, it turns out,
349
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并且那些组织模式,将被证明,
15:32
are incredibly powerful,
350
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会极其的强大有力,
15:34
and the people who can understand them
351
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而那些能理解它们的人
15:36
will be very, very successful.
352
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将非常非常成功。
15:38
Let me just give you one final example
353
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让我再给你们讲最后一个例子
15:41
of what that means.
354
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来说明那是什么意思。
15:43
I was in Shanghai,
355
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我曾经在上海,
15:45
in an office block
356
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2000
在一个5年前
15:47
built on what was a rice paddy five years ago --
357
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3000
在水稻田上面建的写字楼里面——
15:50
one of the 2,500 skyscrapers
358
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3000
过去10年上海建起来的
15:53
they've built in Shanghai in the last 10 years.
359
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2500栋大厦之一。
15:56
And I was having dinner with this guy called Timothy Chan.
360
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我在和这个叫作陈天桥的人一起吃晚饭。
15:59
Timothy Chan set up an Internet business
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陈天桥
16:01
in 2000.
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在2000年开了一家互联网公司。
16:03
Didn't go into the Internet, kept his money,
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但没有进入互联网,保留了他的资金,
16:06
decided to go into computer games.
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决定进入电脑游戏行业。
16:08
He runs a company called Shanda,
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他运营着一家叫作盛大的公司,
16:11
which is the largest computer games company in China.
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现在是中国最大的电脑游戏公司。
16:15
Nine thousand servers all over China,
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在全中国上下共有9000台服务器,
16:18
has 250 million subscribers.
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2.5亿注册用户。
16:22
At any one time, there are four million people playing one of his games.
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任何一个时候,都有4百万人在玩一个他的游戏。
16:27
How many people does he employ
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那他雇佣了多少人
16:29
to service that population?
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来为这么多人服务?
16:32
500 people.
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500个人。
16:34
Well, how can he service
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呃,他怎么能只用500员工
16:36
250 million people from 500 employees?
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为2.5亿人服务?
16:39
Because basically, he doesn't service them.
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因为基本上,他并不为他们服务。
16:41
He gives them a platform;
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他给他们提供一个平台,
16:43
he gives them some rules; he gives them the tools
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制定一些规矩,提供工具,
16:46
and then he kind of orchestrates the conversation;
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然后他就有点像是指挥对话,
16:49
he orchestrates the action.
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协调他们的行动。
16:51
But actually, a lot of the content
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但是实际上,很多的内容
16:53
is created by the users themselves.
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是用户自己创作的。
16:56
And it creates a kind of stickiness
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因此它就在社会团体和公司之间
16:58
between the community and the company
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建立了一种
17:00
which is really, really powerful.
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真正非常强大的粘性。
17:02
The best measure of that: so you go into one of his games,
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一个最好的衡量办法:你进到一个他的游戏,
17:05
you create a character
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你创建一个人物
17:07
that you develop in the course of the game.
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然后在游戏过程中发展它。
17:09
If, for some reason, your credit card bounces,
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如果,因为某种原因,比如你的信用卡拒付,
17:12
or there's some other problem,
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或者其他什么原因,
17:14
you lose your character.
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你丢失了你的人物。
17:16
You've got two options.
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你有两个选择:
17:18
One option: you can create a new character,
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一个选择是:你可以创建一个新的人物,
17:21
right from scratch, but with none of the history of your player.
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从头再来,但是没有任何你前面那个人物的历史。
17:24
That costs about 100 dollars.
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这要花费大概100美元。
17:26
Or you can get on a plane, fly to Shanghai,
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或者你可以坐上飞机,飞到上海,
17:29
queue up outside Shanda's offices --
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在盛大的办公室外面排队——
17:32
cost probably 600, 700 dollars --
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大概花费600或700美元——
17:36
and reclaim your character, get your history back.
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然后就可以重新找回你丢失的人物,要回你的历史。
17:39
Every morning, there are 600 people queuing
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每天早上,都有600人
17:41
outside their offices
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在他们的办公室外面排队
17:43
to reclaim these characters. (Laughter)
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要找回他们的人物。
17:45
So this is about companies built on communities,
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所以这就是以社团为基础的公司,
17:48
that provide communities with tools,
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给社团提供他们能够共享的工具,
17:51
resources, platforms in which they can share.
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资源,和平台。
17:53
He's not open source,
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他不是开放资源,
17:55
but it's very, very powerful.
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但是它非常非常强大。
17:57
So here is one of the challenges, I think,
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因此这是一个,我认为,
18:00
for people like me, who
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对于像我这样的
18:02
do a lot of work with government.
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给政府部门做很多事情的人要面对的挑战之一。
18:05
If you're a games company,
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如果你是一个游戏公司,
18:08
and you've got a million players in your game,
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并且你有1百万玩家在玩你的游戏,
18:11
you only need one percent of them
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你只需要其中1%的人
18:14
to be co-developers, contributing ideas,
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是协同开发人员,贡献点子,
18:16
and you've got a development workforce
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那么你就有一个
18:18
of 10,000 people.
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1万人的开发队伍。
18:21
Imagine you could take all the children
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想像一下你有英国所有在受教育的小孩,
18:24
in education in Britain, and one percent of them
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其中1%是
18:27
were co-developers of education.
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教育的协同开发者。
18:29
What would that do to the resources available
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这对于教育系统能使用的资源
18:31
to the education system?
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会有什么样的影响?
18:33
Or if you got one percent of the patients in the NHS
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或者如果你有国民医疗系统NHS中1%的病人
18:36
to, in some sense, be co-producers of health.
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成为某种意义上的健康的协同制造者。
18:39
The reason why --
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为什么会这样的原因——
18:41
despite all the efforts to cut it down,
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尽管遇到所有这些力量要削弱它,
18:44
to constrain it, to hold it back --
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限制它,阻止它——
18:46
why these open models will still start emerging
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为什么这些开放模式还能
18:49
with tremendous force,
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以极其惊人的力量继续不断显现,
18:51
is that they multiply our productive resources.
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是因为它们能成倍地利用我们的生产力资源。
18:53
And one of the reasons they do that
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它们能办到这一点的其中一个原因是
18:55
is that they turn users into producers,
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它们把用户变成了生产者,
18:57
consumers into designers.
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把消费者变成了设计者。
18:59
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
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