Charles Leadbeater: The era of open innovation

127,969 views ・ 2008-04-14

TED


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譯者: CHUN-JU CHEN 審譯者: Jeannie Cheng
00:25
What I'm going to do, in the spirit of collaborative creativity,
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我要做的呢,就是以集體創造力這個信念
00:28
is simply repeat many of the points
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來簡單地重述一些
00:31
that the three people before me have already made,
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前面三位講者已經提過的論點
00:34
but do them --
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但是實踐它們
00:36
this is called "creative collaboration;"
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這美其名是集體創造力
00:38
it's actually called "borrowing" --
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但其實是借用他們的觀點
00:41
but do it through a particular perspective,
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不過從比較特別的角度闡述
00:43
and that is to ask about the role of users and consumers
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並瞭解使用者和消費者
00:46
in this emerging world of
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在吉米和其他人所談及的
00:48
collaborative creativity
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集體創造的世界裡
00:50
that Jimmy and others have talked about.
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所扮演的角色
00:53
Let me just ask you, to start with,
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首先我想問問各位
00:55
this simple question:
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這個簡單的問題
00:57
who invented the mountain bike?
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誰發明了登山腳踏車?
00:59
Because traditional economic theory would say,
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因為傳統的經濟理論會說
01:02
well, the mountain bike was probably invented by some big bike corporation
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應該是某個大型的自行車企業發明的
01:05
that had a big R&D lab
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他們有大規模的研發實驗室
01:07
where they were thinking up new projects,
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研發人員總是有新的創意
01:09
and it came out of there. It didn't come from there.
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所以登山腳踏車是他們發明的。但事實並非如此
01:12
Another answer might be, well, it came from a sort of lone genius
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另外一個答案可能是,某個孤單的天才發明的
01:15
working in his garage, who,
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他在自己的車庫工作
01:17
working away on different kinds of bikes, comes up
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不停地測試不同車種,最後
01:19
with a bike out of thin air.
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有如天上掉下來的禮物,他發明了登山腳踏車
01:21
It didn't come from there. The mountain bike
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但也不是這麼一回事。登山腳踏車
01:23
came from users, came from young users,
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是使用者發明的,而且是年輕人
01:27
particularly a group in Northern California,
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尤其是北加州一群自行車的愛好者
01:29
who were frustrated with traditional racing bikes,
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他們對傳統的競速腳踏車非常的不滿意
01:32
which were those sort of bikes that Eddy Merckx rode,
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就像艾迪墨克斯(自行車手)
01:35
or your big brother, and they're very glamorous.
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或你哥會騎的那種,看起來很炫
01:37
But also frustrated with the bikes that your dad rode,
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他們也對像是爸爸會騎的那種有大手把的腳踏車感到不滿意
01:40
which sort of had big handlebars like that, and they were too heavy.
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因為手把太重了
01:43
So, they got the frames from these big bikes,
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因此他們把那些大型腳踏車的骨架拆下
01:45
put them together with the gears from the racing bikes,
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用競速腳踏車的齒輪重新組合
01:48
got the brakes from motorcycles,
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裝上摩托車的煞車系統
01:52
and sort of mixed and matched various ingredients.
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再混合組裝不同的零件
01:54
And for the first, I don't know, three to five years of their life,
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一開始的三到五年
01:57
mountain bikes were known as "clunkers."
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登山腳踏車被稱為「破鐵車」
01:59
And they were just made in a community of bikers,
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而且主要是由
02:02
mainly in Northern California.
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北加州的一群自行車愛好者所製造
02:04
And then one of these companies that was importing parts
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後來其中一家替「破鐵車」進口零件的公司
02:07
for the clunkers decided to set up in business,
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決定作這門生意
02:09
start selling them to other people,
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開始銷售「破鐵車」
02:11
and gradually another company emerged out of that, Marin,
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後來另外一家公司,Marin,也加入銷售行列
02:14
and it probably was, I don't know,
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或許經過了,我不知道
02:16
10, maybe even 15, years,
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10年,甚至15年之後
02:18
before the big bike companies
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這些大型自行車企業
02:20
realized there was a market.
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才了解登山腳踏車的市場商機無限
02:22
Thirty years later,
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30年之後
02:24
mountain bike sales
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登山腳踏車
02:26
and mountain bike equipment
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和登山腳踏車配備的銷售額
02:28
account for 65 percent of bike sales in America.
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佔了全美腳踏車銷售額的百分之65
02:30
That's 58 billion dollars.
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總共是580億美元
02:33
This is a category entirely created by consumers
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這塊市場完全是由消費者開拓出來的
02:36
that would not have been created by the mainstream bike market
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而不是被主流的自行車市場所發掘
02:39
because they couldn't see the need,
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因為他們看不到消費者的需求
02:41
the opportunity;
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看不到商機
02:43
they didn't have the incentive to innovate.
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也就沒有動力去創新
02:46
The one thing I think I disagree with
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在約柴教授的演講中
02:48
about Yochai's presentation
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有一件事我並不認同
02:50
is when he said the Internet causes
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那就是,他說網際網路提供了分散性
02:52
this distributive capacity for innovation to come alive.
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而這種分散性正是創新所需要的
02:55
It's when the Internet combines
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只有當網路結合了
02:58
with these kinds of passionate pro-am consumers --
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這些有熱情的專業餘消費者
03:01
who are knowledgeable; they've got the incentive to innovate;
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他們有知識,有創新的動力
03:04
they've got the tools; they want to --
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他們有辦法,他們有渴求
03:06
that you get this kind of explosion
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在這種情況下
03:08
of creative collaboration.
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你才會看到集體創造力所激起的火花
03:11
And out of that, you get the need for the kind of things
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如此一來,你就能了解
03:14
that Jimmy was talking about, which is our new kinds of organization,
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剛剛吉米所談到的事情有多重要,那就是新組織型態的出現
03:17
or a better way to put it:
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或者這樣說比較清楚
03:19
how do we organize ourselves without organizations?
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在沒有實際組織的情況下,我們要如何形成一個團體?
03:22
That's now possible; you don't need an organization to be organized,
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現在這不成問題,你不需要一個組織而結集起來
03:26
to achieve large and complex tasks,
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去達成龐大而複雜的任務
03:28
like innovating new software programs.
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像是發明新的軟體
03:31
So this is a huge challenge
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這是大大挑戰
03:34
to the way we think creativity comes about.
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我們對於「創意來源」的既定印象
03:38
The traditional view, still enshrined
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一直以來
03:40
in much of the way that we think about creativity
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我們都認為有創意的人
03:43
-- in organizations, in government --
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是一群非比尋常的人
03:45
is that creativity is about special people:
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只出現在企業裡,或政府機構
03:48
wear baseball caps the wrong way round,
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把棒球帽反戴
03:50
come to conferences like this, in special places,
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參加像這樣的會議,或其他特別的場合
03:53
elite universities, R&D labs in the forests, water,
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例如頂尖大學、建築在森林裡或水裡的研發實驗室
03:58
maybe special rooms in companies painted funny colors,
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或者在公司裡那些漆滿怪異顏色的的特別房間
04:01
you know, bean bags, maybe the odd table-football table.
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你知道的,有懶骨頭,或許還有古怪的桌上足球
04:05
Special people, special places, think up special ideas,
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特別的人,在特別的地方,想出特別的點子
04:08
then you have a pipeline that takes the ideas
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然後接上一條管子
04:10
down to the waiting consumers, who are passive.
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把這些點子傳送給被動等待的消費者
04:14
They can say "yes" or "no" to the invention.
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再由他們認可或否定這項發明
04:16
That's the idea of creativity.
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這就是你所認為的創意
04:18
What's the policy recommendation out of that
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如果你在政府機關工作或經營大公司
04:20
if you're in government, or you're running a large company?
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你會怎麼建議政策方針?
04:24
More special people, more special places.
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更多特別的人,更多特別的地方
04:27
Build creative clusters in cities;
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在城市裡建設創意集群
04:29
create more R&D parks, so on and so forth.
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建造更多研發園區...等等
04:32
Expand the pipeline down to the consumers.
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擴大將創意傳播給消費者的管道
04:35
Well this view, I think, is increasingly wrong.
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我覺得這樣的觀念錯得越來越離譜了
04:38
I think it's always been wrong,
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而我認為這樣的觀念一直都是錯的
04:40
because I think always creativity has been highly collaborative,
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因為我認為創意是高度共同合作的結果
04:43
and it's probably been largely interactive.
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互動性可能是非常強的
04:46
But it's increasingly wrong, and one of the reasons it's wrong
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但是大家對於創意的觀點越來越偏差,其中一個錯誤的理由就是
04:49
is that the ideas are flowing back up the pipeline.
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其實這些點子是從管子的另外一端流回來的
04:52
The ideas are coming back from the consumers,
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也就是消費者的那一端
04:54
and they're often ahead of the producers.
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他們常常比製造商還要先發現商機
04:57
Why is that?
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為什麼呢?
04:59
Well, one issue
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其中一點
05:02
is that radical innovation,
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是突破性創新
05:04
when you've got ideas that
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具有高度的未知性
05:06
affect a large number of technologies or people,
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尤其是當你的點子
05:10
have a great deal of uncertainty attached to them.
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牽涉到很多技術,影響到很多人的時候
05:12
The payoffs to innovation are greatest
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未知性最高的同時
05:14
where the uncertainty is highest.
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創新所帶來的收益也最多
05:17
And when you get a radical innovation,
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當你執行突破性創新時
05:19
it's often very uncertain how it can be applied.
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常常無法確定要如何運用它
05:22
The whole history of telephony
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例如整個電話史
05:24
is a story of dealing with that uncertainty.
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就是一個關於未知性的故事
05:28
The very first landline telephones,
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最早發明陸線電話的發明家
05:30
the inventors thought
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他們想用這種電話
05:32
that they would be used for people to listen in
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讓民眾可以聽到
05:34
to live performances
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倫敦西區劇院的
05:36
from West End theaters.
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現場表演
05:38
When the mobile telephone companies invented SMS,
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當電信業者發明了SMS(簡訊服務)
05:41
they had no idea what it was for;
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他們不知道可以拿來做什麼用
05:43
it was only when that technology got into the hands
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直到這項科技到了
05:45
of teenage users
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十幾歲的使用者手中
05:47
that they invented the use.
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他們才發現用途
05:49
So the more radical the innovation,
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所以,突破性越高的創新
05:52
the more the uncertainty,
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未知性就越高
05:54
the more you need innovation in use
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也更需要使用那個創新
05:56
to work out what a technology is for.
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來找出新科技的用途
05:59
All of our patents, our entire approach
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所有的專利權,我們對於
06:02
to patents and invention, is based on the idea
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發明的構想和專利權的整個系統是建立在
06:05
that the inventor knows what the invention is for;
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發明者知道為什麼要發明的前提之下
06:08
we can say what it's for.
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或者說知道這個東西是做什麼用的
06:10
More and more, the inventors of things
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越來越多的發明者
06:12
will not be able to say that in advance.
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將無法事先預測發明物的用途
06:14
It will be worked out in use,
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透過使用經驗
06:16
in collaboration with users.
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以及使用者的通力合作才能找出答案
06:19
We like to think that invention is
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我們喜歡把發明想成是
06:21
a sort of moment of creation:
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一種創造的瞬間
06:24
there is a moment of birth when someone comes up with an idea.
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某個人想到點子的那一刻發明物也同時產生
06:27
The truth is that most creativity
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事實上,絕大多數的創意
06:30
is cumulative and collaborative;
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是累積和共同合作的結果
06:32
like Wikipedia, it develops over a long period of time.
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像是維基百科,就發展了很長一段時間
06:37
The second reason why users are more and more important
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使用者越來越重要的理由之二
06:40
is that they are the source of big, disruptive innovations.
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是因為他們是劃時代創新的來源
06:44
If you want to find the big new ideas,
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如果你想要找到絕妙的新點子
06:47
it's often difficult to find them in mainstream markets,
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通常很難在主流市場
06:50
in big organizations.
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或大型組織裡找到
06:53
And just look inside large organizations
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只要看看大型組織的內部
06:55
and you'll see why that is so.
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你就知道為什麼了
06:57
So, you're in a big corporation.
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如果你在一間大公司
07:01
You're obviously keen to go up the corporate ladder.
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你一定會積極地往公司的高階層爬
07:04
Do you go into your board and say,
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你會這樣對你的董事會說嗎?
07:06
"Look, I've got a fantastic idea
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嘿,我想到一個超棒的點子
07:08
for an embryonic product
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有個草創期的產品
07:10
in a marginal market,
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沒什麼市場
07:12
with consumers we've never dealt with before,
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消費者類型是我們從沒面對過的
07:15
and I'm not sure it's going to have a big payoff, but it could be really, really big in the future?"
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雖然我不敢保證投資報酬率會很高,但我相信它一定是未來的趨勢
07:18
No, what you do, is you go in and you say,
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不,你會做的,是對他們說
07:21
"I've got a fantastic idea for an incremental innovation
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我有個超棒的漸進式創新的點子
07:24
to an existing product we sell through existing channels
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透過現有的管道銷售現有的產品
07:27
to existing users, and I can guarantee
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給現有的使用者,而且我可以保證
07:29
you get this much return out of it over the next three years."
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在未來三年之內你可以回收多少的利潤
07:33
Big corporations have an in-built tendency
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大型企業天生就易於
07:35
to reinforce past success.
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鞏固過去的成就
07:37
They've got so much sunk in it
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他們太沉迷於此
07:39
that it's very difficult for them to spot
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以致於他們很難發現
07:42
emerging new markets. Emerging new markets, then,
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新興市場。然而新興市場
07:45
are the breeding grounds for passionate users.
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培育了許多富有熱忱的使用者
07:48
Best example:
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舉個最好的例子
07:50
who in the music industry,
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在音樂產業裡
07:52
30 years ago, would have said,
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誰會在30年前就說
07:55
"Yes, let's invent a musical form
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好,讓我們來創造一種音樂類型
07:58
which is all about dispossessed black men
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內容是關於流離失所的黑人
08:01
in ghettos expressing their frustration
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在貧民窟裡用音樂
08:03
with the world through a form of music
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表達他們對世界的失望
08:05
that many people find initially quite difficult to listen to.
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而這種音樂許多人一開始很難聽得下去
08:08
That sounds like a winner; we'll go with it."
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聽起來似乎會大賣,我們就這麼做吧
08:11
(Laughter).
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(笑聲)
08:12
So what happens? Rap music is created by the users.
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所以到底是怎麼樣呢?黑人創造了饒舌音樂
08:15
They do it on their own tapes, with their own recording equipment;
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他們用自己的錄音設備錄製音樂
08:18
they distribute it themselves.
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自己銷售這些音樂
08:19
30 years later,
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30年後
08:21
rap music is the dominant musical form of popular culture --
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饒舌音樂是流行文化主要的音樂類型
08:24
would never have come from the big companies.
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而這絕對不會來自於大公司
08:26
Had to start -- this is the third point --
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接著我要講的第三點
08:29
with these pro-ams.
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跟專業餘者有關
08:31
This is the phrase that I've used in
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我與倫敦Demos智庫
08:33
some stuff which I've done
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一起共事時
08:35
with a think tank in London called Demos,
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曾經用過這個詞
08:37
where we've been looking at these people who are amateurs --
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在Demos智庫,我們一直在關注業餘者
08:40
i.e., they do it for the love of it --
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也就是那些作自己有興趣的事
08:43
but they want to do it to very high standards.
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卻用高標準來要求自己的人
08:45
And across a whole range of fields --
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而且這些人來自各行各業
08:47
from software, astronomy,
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上至軟體,天文
08:51
natural sciences,
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自然科學
08:53
vast areas of leisure and culture
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下至範圍廣大的休閒、文化
08:55
like kite-surfing, so on and so forth --
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像是風箏衝浪,諸如此類
08:58
you find people who want to do things because they love it,
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你會發現這些人是為了自己的興趣而做事
09:02
but they want to do these things to very high standards.
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而且是用高標準在做事
09:05
They work at their leisure, if you like.
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你也可以說他們為自己的興趣努力付出
09:07
They take their leisure very seriously:
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而且一點也不馬虎
09:09
they acquire skills; they invest time;
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他們習得技能,投注時間
09:12
they use technology that's getting cheaper -- it's not just the Internet:
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不只是網路而已,他們也使用越來越便宜的科技產品
09:15
cameras, design technology,
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像是相機,設計科技
09:18
leisure technology, surfboards, so on and so forth.
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休閒科技,衝浪板...等等
09:21
Largely through globalization,
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透過全球化
09:23
a lot of this equipment has got a lot cheaper.
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許多像這樣的設備已經變得便宜許多
09:26
More knowledgeable consumers, more educated,
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更多有智識的消費者,教育程度更好
09:29
more able to connect with one another,
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與人接觸的機會變多
09:31
more able to do things together.
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也更能一起共事
09:33
Consumption, in that sense, is an expression
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在這種情況下,消費一詞
09:35
of their productive potential.
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意味著他們的生產潛力
09:37
Why, we found, people were interested in this,
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為什麼呢?我們發現這些人之所以致力於自己的興趣
09:41
is that at work they don't feel very expressed.
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是因為他們在工作上無法一展長才
09:44
They don't feel as if they're doing something that really matters to them,
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他們覺得自己好像在做些不重要的事
09:47
so they pick up these kinds of activities.
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所以他們選擇在閒暇之餘做自己有興趣的事
09:50
This has huge organizational implications
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這對各行各業來說
09:52
for very large areas of life.
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都隱含著可以形成組織的可能性
09:54
Take astronomy as an example,
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舉個剛剛約柴教授提到的
09:57
which Yochai has already mentioned.
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天文學的例子
10:00
Twenty years ago, 30 years ago,
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20, 30年以前
10:02
only big professional astronomers
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只有專業級的天文學家
10:05
with very big telescopes could see far into space.
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有大型望遠鏡能觀測遙遠的星空
10:09
And there's a big telescope in Northern England called Jodrell Bank,
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英格蘭北邊的喬德雷爾•班克天文台有個大型望遠鏡
10:12
and when I was a kid, it was amazing,
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我小的時候覺得那個望遠鏡真是太了不起了
10:14
because the moon shots would take off, and this thing would move on rails.
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人類可以登入月球,而這個望遠鏡會繞著軌道轉
10:17
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而且它很巨大,令人嘆為觀止
10:20
Now, six
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現在,六個
10:23
amateur astronomers, working with the Internet,
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業餘天文學家,用網路
10:25
with Dobsonian digital telescopes --
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用數位的杜普森望遠鏡(Dobsonian telescope)
10:27
which are pretty much open source --
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這基本上是開放軟件
10:30
with some light sensors
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還有一些光感測器
10:32
developed over the last 10 years, the Internet --
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經過過去十年的發展,在網路上
10:34
they can do what Jodrell Bank could only do 30 years ago.
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他們可以做到三十年前只有喬德雷爾˙班克天文台作得到的事
10:38
So here in astronomy, you have this vast explosion
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所以在天文上,新的生產性資源
10:41
of new productive resources.
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有了爆炸性的進展
10:43
The users can be producers.
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使用者也可以成為生產者
10:46
What does this mean, then, for our
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那麼這對我們的企業遠景
10:48
organizational landscape?
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有什麼意義呢?
10:50
Well, just imagine a world,
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想像一下,在這一刻
10:52
for the moment, divided into two camps.
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世界被分為兩個群體
10:56
Over here, you've got the old, traditional corporate model:
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其中一邊是老舊傳統的企業型態
10:59
special people, special places;
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特別的人,特別的地方
11:01
patent it, push it down the pipeline
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取得專利,塞給在管子另一端
11:03
to largely waiting, passive consumers.
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眾多被動等待的消費者
11:06
Over here, let's imagine we've got
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另外一邊呢,想像一下我們有
11:08
Wikipedia, Linux, and beyond -- open source.
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維基百科、Linux作業系統,以及其他開放性資源
11:12
This is open; this is closed.
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一邊是開放的,一邊是封閉的
11:14
This is new; this is traditional.
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一邊是新的,一邊是傳統的
11:16
Well, the first thing you can say, I think with certainty,
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你想說的第一件事,我很肯定
11:19
is what Yochai has said already --
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就跟約柴教授之前說的一樣
11:21
is there is a great big struggle
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在新舊組織型態中找到平衡
11:23
between those two organizational forms.
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是一件極為困難的事情
11:25
These people over there will do everything they can
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傳統這一邊的人,會無所不用其極
11:28
to stop these kinds of organizations succeeding,
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來阻撓新的組織模式
11:31
because they're threatened by them.
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因為新的模式威脅到他們
11:33
And so the debates about
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也因此有了關於
11:36
copyright, digital rights, so on and so forth --
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著作權,數位版權...等的爭議
11:40
these are all about trying to stifle, in my view,
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在我看來,這些都是他們扼殺
11:43
these kinds of organizations.
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新組織模式的手段
11:45
What we're seeing is a complete corruption
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我們現在所看到的
11:48
of the idea of patents and copyright.
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是專利和著作權觀念的崩解
11:50
Meant to be a way to incentivize invention,
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這個變化本來可以刺激創新
11:54
meant to be a way to orchestrate the dissemination of knowledge,
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本來可以整合知識的傳播方式
11:57
they are increasingly being used by large companies
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卻漸漸被大型公司利用來
12:00
to create thickets of patents
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建立自己的專利叢林(防止專利被入侵的保護政策)
12:02
to prevent innovation taking place.
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以防止創新的發生
12:04
Let me just give you two examples.
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舉兩個例子
12:07
The first is: imagine yourself going to a venture capitalist
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第一,想像你來到一個風險資本家的面前
12:10
and saying, "I've got a fantastic idea.
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對他說,我有個超棒的點子
12:12
I've invented this brilliant new program
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我發明了一個超棒的程式
12:15
that is much, much better than Microsoft Outlook."
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比微軟的Outlook還要好上幾百倍
12:19
Which venture capitalist in their right mind is going to give you any money to set up a venture
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哪個正常的風險資本家會考慮給你錢讓你去成立一家公司
12:23
competing with Microsoft, with Microsoft Outlook? No one.
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跟微軟的Outlook競爭?沒有
12:26
That is why the competition with Microsoft is bound to come --
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這就是為什麼要跟微軟競爭就要用
12:29
will only come --
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也只能用
12:31
from an open-source kind of project.
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開放資源的方式
12:33
So, there is a huge competitive argument
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所以,要如何維持
12:35
about sustaining the capacity
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開放性資源以及消費者導向創新的產能
12:37
for open-source and consumer-driven innovation,
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是在與主流市場競爭時非常重要的議題
12:40
because it's one of the greatest
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因為這是能和壟斷企業抗衡的
12:42
competitive levers against monopoly.
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競爭手段之一
12:45
There'll be huge professional arguments as well.
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同樣地也會有來自專家的爭論
12:48
Because the professionals, over here
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因為那些來自
12:50
in these closed organizations --
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封閉組織的專家
12:52
they might be academics; they might be programmers;
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可能是學者、可能是程式設計師
12:54
they might be doctors; they might be journalists --
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可能是醫生、可能是新聞業者
12:57
my former profession --
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也就是我之前的工作
12:59
say, "No, no -- you can't trust these people over here."
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他們會說不行不行,不可以相信另一邊的人
13:03
When I started in journalism --
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20年前當我在金融時報
13:05
Financial Times, 20 years ago --
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從事新聞業時
13:09
it was very, very exciting
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看到有人在讀金融時報
13:11
to see someone reading the newspaper.
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我就會非常非常興奮
13:13
And you'd kind of look over their shoulder on the Tube
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在搭地鐵的時候,你會想要從他肩膀後瞄過去
13:15
to see if they were reading your article.
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看他是否在讀你的文章
13:18
Usually they were reading the share prices,
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但通常他們在看的是股價
13:20
and the bit of the paper with your article on
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而刊有你文章的報紙
13:22
was on the floor, or something like that,
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則掉在地上,或者其他類似的狀況
13:24
and you know, "For heaven's sake, what are they doing!
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你的反應會是,天啊!他們在幹嘛!
13:26
They're not reading my brilliant article!"
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他們沒有在讀我的大作
13:29
And we allowed users, readers,
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我們讓使用者和讀者
13:32
two places where they could contribute to the paper:
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能在兩個版面投稿
13:34
the letters page, where they could write a letter in,
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一個是讀者來信版,讀者可以寫信過來
13:37
and we would condescend to them, cut it in half,
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我們會放下身段,把它裁成兩半
13:39
and print it three days later.
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三天之後印出來
13:41
Or the op-ed page, where if they knew the editor --
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另一個是讀者投書版
13:43
had been to school with him, slept with his wife --
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如果編輯曾經跟他一起上學,跟他老婆亂搞
13:45
they could write an article for the op-ed page.
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讀者可以寫篇文章到讀者投書版
13:48
Those were the two places.
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這就是我說的那兩個版面
13:50
Shock, horror: now, the readers want to be writers and publishers.
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現在令人驚恐的是,這些讀者想成為作家和出版商
13:54
That's not their role; they're supposed to read what we write.
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那不是他們所該扮演的角色,他們應該讀我們寫的東西才對啊
13:57
But they don't want to be journalists. The journalists think
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但是他們並不想當記者,那些記者覺得
13:59
that the bloggers want to be journalists;
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部落客想搶他們的飯碗
14:01
they don't want to be journalists; they just want to have a voice.
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但是這些部落客並不想當記者,他們只想要有個發聲的管道
14:03
They want to, as Jimmy said, they want to have a dialogue, a conversation.
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就像吉米說的一樣,他們要的是對話溝通
14:06
They want to be part of that flow of information.
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他們想成為資訊流的一部份
14:10
What's happening there is that the whole domain
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現在,創意的整個範疇
14:12
of creativity is expanding.
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還在持續擴大中
14:14
So, there's going to be a tremendous struggle.
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所以未來還有更大的挑戰
14:17
But, also, there's going to be tremendous movement
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但同時,不管是開放性組織還是封閉性組織
14:20
from the open to the closed.
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都將面臨劇烈的變遷
14:23
What you'll see, I think, is two things that are critical,
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我想,你會看到的是兩件非常重要的事
14:26
and these, I think, are two challenges
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而這兩件事,我覺得是
14:28
for the open movement.
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邁向開放的兩個挑戰
14:30
The first is:
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第一
14:32
can we really survive on volunteers?
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我們真的可以仰賴義工嗎?
14:35
If this is so critical,
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如果開放性資源真的這麼重要
14:37
do we not need it funded, organized, supported
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我們難道不需要用更有架構的方式
14:40
in much more structured ways?
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去投注資金並且加以組織嗎?
14:42
I think the idea of creating the Red Cross
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我認為創立資訊和知識的紅十字會
14:44
for information and knowledge is a fantastic idea,
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是個非常棒的主意
14:47
but can we really organize that, just on volunteers?
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但是我們真的可以靠義工就達到目的嗎?
14:51
What kind of changes do we need in public policy
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在公共政策和資金提供方面
14:53
and funding to make that possible?
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需要做哪些改變呢?
14:55
What's the role of the BBC,
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例如英國廣播公司BBC
14:57
for instance, in that world?
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應該在哪裡扮演什麼角色呢?
14:59
What should be the role of public policy?
338
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而公共政策又應該扮演什麼角色
15:01
And finally, what I think you will see
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最後,你將會看到
15:04
is the intelligent, closed organizations
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那些明智、封閉的企業
15:07
moving increasingly in the open direction.
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會一步步走向開放
15:10
So it's not going to be a contest between two camps,
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所以這並不是兩個陣營的競賽
15:13
but, in between them, you'll find all sorts of interesting places
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相反地,你會發現有些人
15:16
that people will occupy.
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佔據兩個陣營中間的灰色地帶
15:18
New organizational models coming about,
345
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新的組織模式將會出現
15:21
mixing closed and open in tricky ways.
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並巧妙地融合封閉和開放的優點
15:24
It won't be so clear-cut; it won't be Microsoft versus Linux --
347
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界線將不再分明,競爭不會只存在於微軟與Linux之間
15:28
there'll be all sorts of things in between.
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而是在兩者的中間地帶
15:30
And those organizational models, it turns out,
349
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而這些新的組織模式
15:32
are incredibly powerful,
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將會變得極為強大
15:34
and the people who can understand them
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能夠看出箇中玄機的人
15:36
will be very, very successful.
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將來就能出人頭地
15:38
Let me just give you one final example
353
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我舉最後一個例子
15:41
of what that means.
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說明我剛剛的論點
15:43
I was in Shanghai,
355
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我之前在上海的時候
15:45
in an office block
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有去一棟辦公大樓,而那塊辦公大樓的用地
15:47
built on what was a rice paddy five years ago --
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在五年前還是一片稻田
15:50
one of the 2,500 skyscrapers
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那棟辦公大樓,是上海在過去十年內
15:53
they've built in Shanghai in the last 10 years.
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所建的2500棟摩天大樓之一
15:56
And I was having dinner with this guy called Timothy Chan.
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當時我和一位叫做陳天橋的先生共進晚餐
15:59
Timothy Chan set up an Internet business
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陳天橋在2000年的時候
16:01
in 2000.
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創立了網路公司
16:03
Didn't go into the Internet, kept his money,
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但他並未就此投身網路業,他把錢留著
16:06
decided to go into computer games.
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決定往電腦遊戲業發展
16:08
He runs a company called Shanda,
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他經營一家叫做盛大網路(Shanda)的公司
16:11
which is the largest computer games company in China.
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是中國最大的電腦遊戲公司
16:15
Nine thousand servers all over China,
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在全中國有9000個伺服器
16:18
has 250 million subscribers.
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兩億五千萬個玩家
16:22
At any one time, there are four million people playing one of his games.
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不管在任何時候,平均都有四百萬人玩這家公司的遊戲
16:27
How many people does he employ
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他雇用了多少人
16:29
to service that population?
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來服務這些玩家?
16:32
500 people.
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五百個
16:34
Well, how can he service
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用五百人來服務兩億五千人
16:36
250 million people from 500 employees?
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他怎麼做到的?
16:39
Because basically, he doesn't service them.
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因為基本上,他根本不用服務玩家
16:41
He gives them a platform;
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而是給玩家一個平台
16:43
he gives them some rules; he gives them the tools
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制訂一些規則,給他們一些工具
16:46
and then he kind of orchestrates the conversation;
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並且從中扮演
16:49
he orchestrates the action.
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和玩家溝通協調的角色
16:51
But actually, a lot of the content
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但是事實上,有許多遊戲內容
16:53
is created by the users themselves.
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是玩家自己創造的
16:56
And it creates a kind of stickiness
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這種作法讓玩家對
16:58
between the community and the company
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遊戲社群和盛大網路產生黏性
17:00
which is really, really powerful.
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而這種黏性是非常非常強而有力的
17:02
The best measure of that: so you go into one of his games,
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證明這點的最好辦法就是去玩他某一款遊戲
17:05
you create a character
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在遊戲過程中
17:07
that you develop in the course of the game.
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創造一個角色
17:09
If, for some reason, your credit card bounces,
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如果因為某些原因,你的信用卡被拒絕使用
17:12
or there's some other problem,
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或其他問題
17:14
you lose your character.
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失去了遊戲角色
17:16
You've got two options.
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你有兩個選擇
17:18
One option: you can create a new character,
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一,創造一個新的角色
17:21
right from scratch, but with none of the history of your player.
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從頭開始玩,但是之前的遊戲記錄都會消失
17:24
That costs about 100 dollars.
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這大概要花100元美金
17:26
Or you can get on a plane, fly to Shanghai,
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或者你可以搭飛機搭到上海
17:29
queue up outside Shanda's offices --
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到盛大網路的辦公室外排隊
17:32
cost probably 600, 700 dollars --
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大約要花600或700元美金
17:36
and reclaim your character, get your history back.
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要回你的遊戲角色和遊戲記錄
17:39
Every morning, there are 600 people queuing
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每天早上,有600人
17:41
outside their offices
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在辦公室外面排隊
17:43
to reclaim these characters. (Laughter)
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等著拿回他們的遊戲角色
17:45
So this is about companies built on communities,
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這是一個以社群為基石的公司實例
17:48
that provide communities with tools,
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提供社群工具
17:51
resources, platforms in which they can share.
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資源,還有可以讓玩家彼此分享的平台
17:53
He's not open source,
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盛大網路並不是開放性資源
17:55
but it's very, very powerful.
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但卻非常具有影響力
17:57
So here is one of the challenges, I think,
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我想,對於像我一樣
18:00
for people like me, who
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與政府合作多項工作的人來說
18:02
do a lot of work with government.
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這是其中一個挑戰
18:05
If you're a games company,
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如果你經營遊戲公司
18:08
and you've got a million players in your game,
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擁有一百萬個玩家
18:11
you only need one percent of them
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你只需要其中百分之一的人
18:14
to be co-developers, contributing ideas,
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當你的共同開發者,貢獻想法
18:16
and you've got a development workforce
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那你就有一萬個
18:18
of 10,000 people.
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開發人員
18:21
Imagine you could take all the children
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想像所有在英國受教育的兒童
18:24
in education in Britain, and one percent of them
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其中百分之一的人口
18:27
were co-developers of education.
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是教育界的共同開發者
18:29
What would that do to the resources available
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對於教育系統可利用的資源
18:31
to the education system?
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會有什麼影響
18:33
Or if you got one percent of the patients in the NHS
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或者從英國國家醫療保健服務(NHS)找來其中百分之一的病人
18:36
to, in some sense, be co-producers of health.
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成為醫療保健的共同生產者
18:39
The reason why --
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即使想盡辦法阻止
18:41
despite all the efforts to cut it down,
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開放模式產生
18:44
to constrain it, to hold it back --
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開放模式還是會挾著巨大的影響力
18:46
why these open models will still start emerging
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而展露頭角
18:49
with tremendous force,
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原因在於
18:51
is that they multiply our productive resources.
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這種模式讓生產性資源變得多樣化
18:53
And one of the reasons they do that
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其中一個原因
18:55
is that they turn users into producers,
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就是它把使用者變成生產者
18:57
consumers into designers.
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把消費者變成設計者
18:59
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位
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