The deadly genius of drug cartels | Rodrigo Canales

682,686 views ・ 2013-11-04

TED


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翻译人员: Wei Wu 校对人员: Tingting Zhao
00:13
In December of 2010,
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2010年12月的一天
00:17
the city of Apatzingán
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墨西哥米却肯州沿海城市
00:19
in the coastal state of Michoacán, in Mexico,
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阿帕兹甘市的人们
00:22
awoke to gunfire.
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被枪炮声惊醒
00:24
For two straight days,
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在接下来的两天
00:26
the city became an open battlefield
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城市变成了战场
00:28
between the federal forces
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联邦军队
00:30
and a well-organized group,
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和米可安卡那家族
00:32
presumably from the local criminal organization,
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那是一个组织严密的地方黑社会团伙
00:34
La Familia Michoacana, or the Michoacán family.
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展开了激战
00:38
The citizens didn't only experience incessant gunfire
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这个城市的居民不仅经历了连续不断的枪炮声
00:41
but also explosions
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同时也目睹了无处不在的
00:43
and burning trucks used as barricades across the city,
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爆炸和那些用作弹幕的燃烧着的汽车
00:47
so truly like a battlefield.
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所以跟战场没什么两样
00:49
After these two days,
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经过了两天的战斗
00:50
and during a particularly intense encounter,
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一场恶战之后
00:53
it was presumed that the leader of La Familia Michoacana,
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米可安卡那家族传说中的首领Nazario Moreno
00:55
Nazario Moreno, was killed.
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据信已经战亡
00:58
In response to this terrifying violence,
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对于此次可怕的暴力
01:00
the mayor of Apatzingán
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阿帕廷干市市长
01:02
decided to call the citizens to a march for peace.
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决定号召市民举行一次呼吁和平的游行
01:04
The idea was to ask for a softer approach
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想法是呼吁州政府采用更加温和的方式
01:08
to criminal activity in the state.
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处理犯罪活动
01:10
And so, the day of the scheduled procession,
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于是,在按计划游行的那天
01:13
thousands of people showed up.
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上千人走上了街头
01:15
As the mayor was preparing to deliver
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当市长在准备宣布游行开始前的
01:17
the speech starting the march,
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演讲的时候
01:19
his team noticed
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他们发现
01:20
that, while half of the participants
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参与游行的人中
01:24
were appropriately dressed in white,
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有一半的人穿着得体的白色衣服
01:25
and bearing banners asking for peace,
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举着呼吁和平的标语
01:28
the other half was actually marching
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另一半的人
01:30
in support of the criminal organization
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实际是为支持之前被打击的犯罪团伙
01:33
and its now-presumed-defunct leader.
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以及据信已经死亡的集团头目来的
01:37
Shocked, the mayor decided to step aside
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市长震惊了,回避了
01:40
rather than participate or lead a procession
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放弃了这场
01:42
that was ostensibly in support of organized crime.
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表面是为了支持犯罪集团的游行
01:45
And so his team stepped aside.
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他的团队也集体回避了
01:47
The two marches joined together,
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两支游行队伍汇合了
01:49
and they continued their path
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一起继续
01:52
towards the state capital.
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朝着州政府进发
01:55
This story of horrific violence
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这个骇人的暴力故事
02:00
followed by a fumbled approach
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是墨西哥如今局势的一个完美缩影
02:02
by federal and local authorities as they tried
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联邦政府和地方政府
02:04
to engage civil society,
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之后采取的笨拙手段
02:06
who has been very well engaged by a criminal organization,
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是在试图重新控制
02:09
is a perfect metaphor for what's happening in Mexico today,
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被犯罪集团控制的社区
02:12
where we see that our current understanding
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这让我们意识到
02:16
of drug violence and what leads to it
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我们目前对于毒品暴力犯罪及其成因的理解
02:18
is probably at the very least incomplete.
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至少是非常局限的
02:21
If you decided to spend 30 minutes trying
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如果你决定花30分钟时间
02:23
to figure out what's going on with drug violence in Mexico
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去调研一下墨西哥现在的毒品暴力现状
02:25
by, say, just researching online,
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比如说,在网上搜索一下
02:27
the first thing you would find out is that
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你会首先发现
02:29
while the laws state that all Mexican citizens are equal,
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虽然法律赋予了每个墨西哥公民平等的权利
02:33
there are some that are more
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但事实上这些人的生命
02:34
and there are some that are much less equal than others,
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是有贵贱之分的
02:38
because you will quickly find out
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因为你马上就会发现
02:39
that in the past six years
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过去的六年中
02:41
anywhere between 60 and 100,000 people
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有6~10万墨西哥人死于
02:43
have lost their lives in drug-related violence.
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跟毒品交易有关的暴力活动
02:46
To put these numbers in perspective,
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客观的看这个数字
02:48
this is eight times larger than the number of casualties
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它是伊拉克和阿富汗
02:51
in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.
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伤亡人数总和的八倍
02:55
It's also shockingly close to the number of people
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这个可怕的数字接近于
02:58
who have died in the Syrian civil war,
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叙利亚内战的死亡人数
03:00
which is an active civil war.
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一场活跃的内战
03:03
This is happening just south of the border.
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而这就发生在南部边境
03:06
Now as you're reading, however,
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现在你们看到这些数字
03:07
you will be maybe surprised that you will quickly
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可能会非常惊讶自己竟然这么快
03:09
become numb to the numbers of deaths,
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就对这样的死亡数字麻木了
03:11
because you will see that these are sort of abstract numbers
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因为你们面对的这些都只是抽象的数字
03:15
of faceless, nameless dead people.
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数字的背后是已经死去的无名无姓的人
03:18
Implicitly or explicitly, there is a narrative
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或多或少的,人们可能会猜想
03:21
that all the people who are dying
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死掉的那些人
03:23
were somehow involved in the drug trade,
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都跟毒品交易有些关系
03:26
and we infer this because they were either tortured
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我们推断的原因是这些人有的被人用老练的手法折磨过
03:29
or executed in a professional manner,
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有的被人用熟练的手法杀死
03:32
or, most likely, both.
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多数是兼而有之
03:33
And so clearly they were criminals
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很明显,这些人死掉的方式
03:35
because of the way they died.
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透露出他们生前一定是罪犯
03:38
And so the narrative is that somehow these people
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于是故事就变成了
03:40
got what they were deserved.
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这些人都是自做自受
03:42
They were part of the bad guys.
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他们都是坏人
03:44
And that creates some form of comfort
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这个推断让很多的人不会再对
03:47
for a lot of people.
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这个死亡数字在意
03:48
However, while it's easier to think
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然而,对我们来说通常会认为
03:51
of us, the citizens, the police, the army,
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我们自己,市民,警察,军队都是好人
03:55
as the good guys, and them, the narcos,
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而那些毒贩子, 黑帮
03:59
the carteles, as the bad guys,
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都是坏人
04:02
if you think about it,
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但是如果你仔细想想
04:03
the latter are only providing a service to the former.
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后者不过是为前者提供一种服务而已
04:07
Whether we like it or not,
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不管你是否喜欢这个说法
04:09
the U.S. is the largest market
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美国都是世界上最大的
04:12
for illegal substances in the world,
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违禁药物消费国
04:13
accounting for more than half of global demand.
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消费了超过全球一半的毒品
04:17
It shares thousands of miles of border with Mexico
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美国跟墨西哥有着上千公里的边界线
04:20
that is its only route of access from the South,
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这是从南部进入美国的唯一途径
04:23
and so, as the former dictator of Mexico, Porfirio Diaz,
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因此,正如墨西哥过去的统治波菲里奥·迪亚斯曾经感慨过的,
04:26
used to say, "Poor Mexico,
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“可怜的墨西哥啊"
04:29
so far from God and so close to the United States."
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"离上帝如此之远,却离美国如此之近!"
04:35
The U.N. estimates that there are 55 million users
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联合国的调查分析表明
04:38
of illegal drugs in the United States.
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美国有大约5500万人使用违禁药物
04:40
Using very, very conservative assumptions,
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即使是非常非常保守的估计
04:43
this yields a yearly drug market on the retail side
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由此带来的毒品零售市场的销售额
04:46
of anywhere between 30 and 150 billion dollars.
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也在 300~1500 亿美元之间
04:49
If we assume that the narcos only have access
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如果我们假设毒贩只负责大宗毒品批发的业务
04:51
to the wholesale part, which we know is false,
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当然现实不是这样
04:54
that still leaves you with yearly revenues
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那么零售市场的销售额
04:56
of anywhere between 15 billion and 60 billion dollars.
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依然在150~600亿美元之间
05:01
To put these numbers in perspective,
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做一个直观的比较
05:03
Microsoft has yearly revenues of 60 billion dollars.
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微软公司每年的年收入也就是600亿美元
05:07
And it so happens that this is a product that,
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而这个产品有一个特点
05:10
because of its nature, a business model
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这是由它的本质决定的
05:13
to address this market requires you
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想要做这样的生意
05:16
to guarantee to your producers
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你需要保证自己的供货商
05:18
that their product will be reliably placed
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能够将货物安全可靠的送到
05:20
in the markets where it is consumed.
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最终的消费者手里
05:23
And the only way to do this, because it's illegal,
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由于这项生意是违法的,要做到这点
05:26
is to have absolute control of the geographic corridors
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唯一的方法就是对毒品运输的边界线
05:29
that are used to transport drugs.
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实现绝对控制
05:31
Hence the violence.
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暴力活动也变得理所当然
05:34
If you look at a map of cartel influence and violence,
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如果你们看过黑帮影响力和暴力活动的分布地图
05:37
you will see that it almost perfectly aligns
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就会发现这些几乎都是发生在
05:39
with the most efficient routes of transportation
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穿越南北的那些
05:41
from the south to the north.
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必经之路上
05:43
The only thing that the cartels are doing
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这些黑帮其实也只是
05:44
is that they're trying to protect their business.
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想要保护自己的生意
05:47
It's not only a multi-billion dollar market,
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这不仅是一个数百亿美元规模的市场
05:49
but it's also a complex one.
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它还有着复杂的运作机制
05:51
For example, the coca plant is a fragile plant
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例如, 古柯是一种很脆弱的植物
05:54
that can only grow in certain latitudes,
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只能生长在特定的纬度
05:56
and so it means that a business model
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这就意味着这个市场的商业模式
05:58
to address this market requires you to have
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需要一个遍布全球的
06:00
decentralized, international production,
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分散的生产基地
06:02
that by the way needs to have good quality control,
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同时也需要对毒品的纯度(品质)有很好的把握
06:05
because people need a good high
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因为瘾君子希望能够在他们
06:07
that is not going to kill them
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需要的时候随时能买到好货
06:09
and that is going to be delivered to them when they need it.
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而货的纯度又不至于把他们毒死
06:12
And so that means they need to secure
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这也就意味着他们需要
06:14
production and quality control in the south,
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美国南部的安全生产和质量控制
06:17
and you need to ensure that you have
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同时需要保证
06:19
efficient and effective distribution channels
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有足够快速便捷的物流渠道
06:21
in the markets where these drugs are consumed.
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能够将自己的毒品送到瘾君子手中
06:25
I urge you, but only a little bit,
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我鼓励你,但是不要勉强
06:26
because I don't want to get you in trouble,
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因为我不希望你因此惹上麻烦
06:28
to just ask around and see how difficult it would be
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去四处打听
06:32
to get whatever drug you want, wherever you want it,
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想要随时随地买到自己想要的任何毒品有多么困难
06:35
whenever you want it, anywhere in the U.S.,
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在任何时间、在美国的任何地方
06:37
and some of you may be surprised to know
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然后你们中的某些人可能会惊讶于
06:40
that there are many dealers that offer a service
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周围居然有那么多的小毒品贩子
06:42
where if you send them a text message,
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甚至你发条短信都可以买到毒品
06:44
they guarantee delivery of the drug
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而且他们保证
06:46
in 30 minutes or less.
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能够在30分钟之内送货上门
06:49
Think about this for a second.
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稍想一想
06:51
Think about the complexity
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想想看我刚才说的
06:53
of the distribution network that I just described.
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毒品的分销网络需要多复杂才能做到这点
06:56
It's very difficult to reconcile this
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很难将这些小毒品贩子
06:59
with the image of faceless, ignorant goons
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与那些相互拿着枪棍杀来杀去的
07:03
that are just shooting each other,
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无名无姓的帮派成员相提并论
07:05
very difficult to reconcile.
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很难将这两种人联系起来
07:07
Now, as a business professor, and as any business professor would tell you,
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现在,我作为一名研究商业行为的教授 首先告诉你们一些商业领域公认的结论
07:11
an effective organization requires
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一个高效的组织
07:13
an integrated strategy that includes
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必须要有一套整合的战略措施
07:15
a good organizational structure, good incentives,
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包括良好的组织架构,有效的激励机制
07:18
a solid identity and good brand management.
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严格的品牌和形象管理
07:21
This leads me to the second thing that you would learn
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这是我接下来要告诉你们的第二个事实
07:23
in your 30-minute exploration of drug violence in Mexico.
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或许你上网半个小时也能了解得到
07:26
Because you would quickly realize,
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因为你很快就会发现
07:28
and maybe be confused by the fact,
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或许这还会让你感到困惑
07:29
that there are three organizations
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就是在墨西哥毒品犯罪的相关文章中
07:30
that are constantly named in the articles.
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有三个犯罪集团的名字反复出现
07:34
You will hear about Los Zetas,
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你一定会听到"洛斯塞塔斯"
07:36
the Knights Templar, which is the new brand
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"圣殿骑士团"
07:38
for the Familia Michoacana that I spoke about at the beginning,
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就是我一开始就提到的米克阿卡那家族
07:41
and the Sinaloa Federation.
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还有 "锡纳罗亚贩毒集团" 集团
07:43
You will read that Los Zetas is this assortment
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你可能会相关文章中得知
07:46
of sociopaths that terrify the cities that they enter
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洛斯塞塔斯是这些团伙中最为残暴的一个
07:50
and they silence the press,
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他们在渗透过的每一个城市制造恐怖、压制舆论
07:53
and this is somewhat true, or mostly true.
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当然,这些多少或者大部分都是真实的
07:56
But this is the result of a very careful branding
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但是这些其实都是精细的品牌策略
08:00
and business strategy.
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和商业手段的效果
08:02
You see, Los Zetas is not just
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洛斯塞塔斯并不简单
08:04
this random assortment of individuals,
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并不是一群乌合之众的散漫组织
08:06
but was actually created by another criminal organization, the Gulf Cartel,
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它实际上是由另外一个叫做“海湾集团”的犯罪集团创建的
08:09
that used to control the eastern corridor of Mexico.
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这个犯罪集团曾经控制了墨西哥东部运输通道
08:12
When that corridor became contested, they decided
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后来运输通道的竞争开始变得激烈
08:15
that they wanted to recruit
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他们决定要训练一支
08:17
a professional enforcement arm.
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专业的武装队伍
08:19
So they recruited Los Zetas:
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于是他们训练出了洛斯塞塔斯
08:23
an entire unit of elite paratroopers
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成员都来自于墨西哥军队的军人
08:26
from the Mexican Army.
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由伞兵中的精英组成
08:29
They were incredibly effective as enforcers for the Gulf Cartel,
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作为海湾集团意志的执行者,他们的确非常精干
08:33
so much so that at some point, they decided
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直到有一天他们干掉了海湾集团
08:34
to just take over the operations,
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决定自己单干
08:37
which is why I ask you to never keep tigers as pets,
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所以我跟你们说, 别把老虎当猫养
08:41
because they grow up.
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因为它们迟早会要长大
08:43
Because the Zetas organization was founded in treason,
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因为洛斯塞塔斯是叛变出来的
08:47
they lost some of the linkages to the production and distribution
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他们没有办法做可卡因之类的利润丰厚的生意
08:50
in the most profitable markets like cocaine,
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因为他们没法控制生产和分销环节
08:52
but what they did have,
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但是他们有自己擅长的
08:53
and this is again based on their military origin,
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源于他们的军队背景
08:56
was a perfectly structured chain of command
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他们的命令传达效率非常之高
08:59
with a very clear hierarchy
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组织结构清晰
09:01
and a very clear promotion path that allowed them
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人员的提拔机制和激励措施很明确
09:05
to supervise and operate across many, many markets
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这使得他们在多种多样的非法生意中
09:09
very effectively,
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脱颖而出
09:11
which is the essence of what a chain of command seeks to do.
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而做这些生意最需要的就是执行力
09:15
And so because they didn't have access
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由于他们没有办法插手
09:16
to the more profitable drug markets,
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利润丰厚的毒品市场
09:18
this pushed them and gave them the opportunity
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这迫使他们,也是他们有了机会
09:20
to diversify into other forms of crime.
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参与各种各样的犯罪活动
09:24
That includes kidnapping, prostitution,
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包括绑架勒索, 卖淫嫖娼
09:28
local drug dealing and human trafficking,
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地区毒品零售以及贩卖人口
09:30
including of migrants that go from the south to the U.S.
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包括从墨西哥偷渡非法移民到美国境内
09:34
So what they currently run is truly
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所以他们经营的生意
09:38
and quite literally a franchise business.
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靠的是名副其实的"特许经营权"
09:42
They focus most of their recruiting on the army,
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他们主要从军队吸纳新人
09:45
and they very openly advertise for better salaries,
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他们公开宣扬自己能够提供更多的薪水
09:48
better benefits, better promotion paths,
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更好的福利以及更快的晋升途径
09:51
not to mention much better food,
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更不要提吃得也很好
09:53
than what the army can deliver.
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比军队能提供的好多了
09:56
The way they operate is that
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他们手法类似于"黑吃黑"
09:57
when they arrive in a locality,
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每到一个新的地盘
09:59
they let people know that they are there,
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他们先制造点动静让人知道他们来了
10:01
and they go to the most powerful local gang
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然后他们去找当地实力最强的黑帮
10:04
and they say, "I offer you
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对他们说
10:06
to be the local representative of the Zeta brand."
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"我允许你们成为我们洛斯塞塔斯的加盟店"
10:10
If they agree -- and you don't want to know
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1873
如果当地黑帮同意了
10:11
what happens if they don't --
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——你不会想知道不同意的下场
10:13
they train them and they supervise them
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他们就训练和指导当地的黑帮
10:15
on how to run the most efficient criminal operation
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教他们如何在当地高效率的经营各种违法生意
10:18
for that town, in exchange for royalties.
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用"特许经营权"换取在当地的威望
10:22
This kind of business model obviously depends
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622175
1906
显然,这种商业模式能够成功
10:24
entirely on having a very effective brand of fear,
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完全依赖于他们深烙在民众心里的恐惧烙印
10:26
and so Los Zetas
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2373
所以洛斯塞塔斯
10:28
carefully stage acts of violence
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很推崇骨子里的暴力犯罪
10:31
that are spectacular in nature,
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1933
但是他们做事之前也会慎重规划
10:33
especially when they arrive first in a city,
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2800
尤其是当他们刚刚进入一个城市时
10:35
but again, that's just a brand strategy.
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再提醒一下,这都是为了树立威望
10:39
I'm not saying they're not violent,
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我不是说他们不暴力
10:41
but what I am saying is that even though you will read
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1943
我说的意思是即使你看到的资料中
10:42
that they are the most violent of all,
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1863
说他们是最残暴的
10:44
when you count, when you do the body count,
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当你从死亡人数的角度来看
10:47
they're actually all the same.
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所有的黑帮都是一样的
10:51
In contrast to them, the Knights Templar
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3088
跟他们相反的是
10:54
that arose in Michoacán
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1840
来自米克阿坎的圣殿骑士团
10:56
emerged in reaction to the incursion
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2607
实际上是为了抵御洛斯塞塔斯
10:59
of the Zetas into the state of Michoacán.
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占领米克阿坎市而联合起来的
11:01
Michoacán is a geographically strategic state
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米克阿坎在地理上是战略重地
11:04
because it has one of the largest ports in Mexico,
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2003
因为她拥有墨西哥最大的港口之一
11:06
and it has very direct routes to the center of Mexico,
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2591
同时拥有一条交通枢纽可以直达墨西哥中部
11:09
which then gives you direct access to the U.S.
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提供了到达美国的直接通道
11:12
The Knights Templar realized very quickly
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1539
圣殿骑士团很快就意识到
11:13
that they couldn't face the Zetas on violence alone,
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3508
他们单打独斗是干不过洛斯塞塔斯的
11:17
and so they developed a strategy
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2357
他们摸索出一种新策略
11:19
as a social enterprise.
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2779
把自己改造成公益企业的样子
11:22
They brand themselves as representative of
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3000
他们标榜自己是米克阿坎市民的代表和保护者
11:25
and protecting of the citizens of Michoacán
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保护市民,抵御其它帮派的
11:28
against organized crime.
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2298
有组织的犯罪
11:30
Their brand of social enterprise means
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690335
1731
他们标榜的公益事业要求他们
11:32
that they require a lot of civic engagement,
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2051
需要在改善市民生活方面投入很多力量
11:34
so they invest heavily in providing local services,
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4166
所以他们在当地公共服务上大把的投入
11:38
like dealing with home violence,
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3498
像是处理家庭暴力
11:41
going after petty criminals, treating addicts,
264
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3776
侦破某些类型的犯罪,强制戒毒
11:45
and keeping drugs out of the local markets
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2778
并禁止毒品进入他们占据的
11:48
where they are,
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2480
当地市场上
11:50
and, of course, protecting people
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1619
并且,理所当然的,保护当地人
11:52
from other criminal organizations.
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2491
免受其它黑社会的骚扰
11:54
Now, they kill a lot of people too,
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3031
现在, 他们也杀了很多的人
11:57
but when they kill them,
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2097
但是他们杀人的时候
12:00
they provide very careful narratives and descriptions
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2900
会小心的准备一份"杀人声明"或"故事背景"
12:02
for why they did them,
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1252
解释为什么要杀这些人
12:04
through newspaper insertions, YouTube videos,
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3963
他们会在报纸上,YouTube 上
12:08
and billboards that explain that the people who were killed
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2466
以及室外广告牌上解释:他们是杀了人
12:10
were killed because they represented a threat
275
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2328
但他们杀人是因为那些死者
12:12
not to us, as an organization, of course,
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1856
显然对当地群众造成了威胁
12:14
but to you, as citizens.
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1936
而不是对他们自己造成了威胁
12:16
And so we're actually here to protect you.
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2456
所以实际上"我们是来保护你们的"
12:19
They, as social enterprises do,
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2564
就像是别的公益企业一样
12:21
have created a moral and ethical code
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1500
他们有自己的道德准则和伦理信条
12:23
that they advertise around,
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2369
并且广为宣扬
12:25
and they have very strict recruiting practices.
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3138
对这些准则的遵守也近于苛刻
12:28
And here you have the types of explanations
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1823
现在你们已经知道了他们如何解释
12:30
that they provide for some of their actions.
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3941
他们的某些类型的(犯罪)行为的
12:34
They have actually retained access
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1896
他们有效的控制了
12:36
to the profitable drug trade,
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2300
毒品交易这一暴利行业
12:38
but the way they do it is, because they control all of Michoacán,
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2210
但他们的做法有些独特,他们完全控制了米克阿坎市
12:40
and they control the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas,
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2143
又控制了拉萨罗·卡德纳斯港口
12:43
they leverage that to, for example,
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1802
基于这些条件,他们的生意模式类似于
12:44
trade copper from Michoacán that is legally created
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3557
从米克阿坎出口合法生产和出口的
12:48
and legally extracted
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1400
黄铜到中国
12:49
with illegal ephedrine from China
292
769868
2002
非法的从中国带回来麻黄碱
12:51
which is a critical precursor for methamphetamines
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3424
这是制作冰毒的重要原材料
12:55
that they produce, and then they have partnerships
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2400
他们制作出来冰毒之后,通过跟锡纳罗亚贩毒集团
12:57
with larger organizations like the Sinaloa Federation
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2538
这样的更大的组织合作
13:00
that place their products in the U.S.
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2690
将自己的产品投放到美国市场
13:02
Finally, the Sinaloa Federation.
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2671
最后一个是锡纳罗亚贩毒集团
13:05
When you read about them, you will often read about them
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2198
当你阅读介绍他们的文章时
13:07
with an undertone of reverence and admiration,
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3700
你时常可以感受到文章隐含的敬畏和赞赏之意
13:11
because they are the most integrated
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791491
1916
因为这个组织是墨西哥最大的一个组织
13:13
and the largest of all the Mexican organizations,
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2288
也是经营范围最全的一个组织
13:15
and, many people argue, the world.
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3454
很多人都觉得这是世界上最大的组织
13:19
They started as just sort of a transport organization
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2984
这个组织一开始只是一个搞搞货运的小团队
13:22
that specialized in smuggling between the U.S.
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2074
专门在墨西哥和美国之间
13:24
and the Mexican borders,
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2125
做点走私的行当
13:26
but now they have grown
306
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1418
但是现在他们已经成长成为
13:27
into a truly integrated multinational
307
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3426
一个真正的跨国多元化集团
13:31
that has partnerships in production in the south
308
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2306
与南方各国的(毒品)生产国有合作关系
13:33
and partnerships in global distribution
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3013
建立了合作关系的分销网络
13:36
across the planet.
310
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2494
遍布全球
13:38
They have cultivated a brand of professionalism,
311
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3330
他们培养出来的组织文化
13:42
business acumen and innovation.
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3318
包含了专业精神、商业智慧和创新
13:45
They have designed new drug products
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2099
他们研发了新的毒品
13:47
and new drug processes.
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1723
改进了毒品制造工艺
13:49
They have designed narco-tunnels
315
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2218
他们挖出了一条毒品管道
13:51
that go across the border,
316
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1541
能够穿越美国边境
13:53
and you can see that these are not
317
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1815
你们看到了这个管道
13:55
"The Shawshank Redemption" types.
318
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3948
跟”肖申克的救赎“里面的管道可不一样
13:58
They have invented narco-submarines and boats
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3696
他们发明了能够躲避雷达的潜水艇和船只
14:02
that are not detected by radar.
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2683
来运送毒品
14:05
They have invented drones to transport drugs,
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2563
他们还发明了用无人机来送货
14:07
catapults, you name it.
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3286
还有弹弓……应有尽有
14:11
One of the leaders of the Sinaloa Federation
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2341
事实上锡纳罗亚贩毒集团的领导人之一
14:13
actually made it to the Forbes list.
324
853550
2438
还让自己上了福布斯富豪榜
14:15
[#701 Joaquin Guzman Loera]
325
855988
1973
(第701富豪: Joaquin Guzman Loera)
14:17
Like any multinational would, they have specialized
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2905
跟别的跨国集团一样
14:20
and focused only in the most profitable part of the business,
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2289
他们的业务集中于利润最高的生意上
14:23
which is high-margin drugs like cocaine,
328
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2678
集中于高级毒品,像是可卡因
14:25
heroine, methamphetamines.
329
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2285
海洛因,冰毒等
14:28
Like any traditional Latin American multinational would,
330
868118
2573
同时,与拉丁美洲的跨国企业一样
14:30
the way they control their operations
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1741
他们控制集团的方式
14:32
is through family ties.
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1782
主要靠家族纽带
14:34
When they're entering a new market, they send
333
874214
1945
每进入一个新的市场
14:36
a family member to supervise it,
334
876159
1721
他们就派一个家族成员去管理
14:37
or, if they're partnering with a new organization,
335
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2817
当他们要与一个组织展开合作时
14:40
they create a family tie,
336
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1420
他们会先建立家族联系
14:42
either through marriages or other types of ties.
337
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4466
通过婚姻或者是其它途径
14:46
Like any other multinational would,
338
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2163
跟别的跨国集团一样的还有
14:48
they protect their brand by outsourcing
339
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3167
他们会通过外包脏活来维护组织的形象
14:51
the more questionable parts of the business model,
340
891913
2168
把他们的生意中麻烦多的部分外包出去
14:54
like for example, when they have to engage
341
894081
2043
比如,当他们需要用暴力解决问题的时候
14:56
in violence against other criminal organizations,
342
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2765
需要跟其它犯罪团伙火拼的时候
14:58
they recruit gangs and other smaller players
343
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3445
他们招募一些小混混和小帮派
15:02
to do the dirty work for them,
344
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1799
去替他们出头
15:04
and they try to separate their operations
345
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1785
他们也有意的把暴力犯罪
15:05
and their violence and be very discrete about this.
346
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3635
与他们自己的生意分离得干干净净
15:09
To further strengthen their brand,
347
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2496
为了维护他们的形象
15:12
they actually have professional P.R. firms
348
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2893
他们甚至还有自己的专业公关公司
15:14
that shape how the press talks about them.
349
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2479
帮他们打理媒体上的报道
15:17
They have professional videographers on staff.
350
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3551
他们内部有职业的摄影师和摄影人员
15:20
They have incredibly productive ties
351
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2113
他们跟美国边境和墨西哥边境的边防
15:23
with the security organizations
352
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1833
建立了说不清道不明的关系
15:24
on both sides of the border.
353
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3412
这点令人吃惊
15:28
And so, differences aside,
354
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2601
所以,抛开各自的特点
15:30
what these three organizations share
355
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3555
这三个组织有很多的共同点
15:34
is on the one hand, a very clear understanding
356
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3640
其中之一就是:他们都非常明确的知道
15:38
that institutions cannot be imposed from the top,
357
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3084
一个体系的建立不可能从上而下的推动
15:41
but rather they are built from the bottom up
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2940
而是自底向上
15:44
one interaction at a time.
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一点一点构建出来的
15:47
They have created extremely coherent structures
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他们构建的组织结构具有非凡的一致性
15:49
that they use to show the inconsistencies
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这跟政府部门朝令夕改的行事作风
15:52
in government policies.
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形成了鲜明对比
15:56
And so what I want you to remember from this talk
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所以我希望你们在听完这次演讲后
15:59
are three things.
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能够记住三件事情
16:00
The first one is that drug violence
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第一件事情是
16:03
is actually the result
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毒品暴力犯罪
16:05
of a huge market demand
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是强大的市场需求推动的结果
16:08
and an institutional setup that forces
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为了保证毒品的销售渠道畅通
16:12
the servicing of this market to necessitate violence
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需要有一个强大的组织支持
16:15
to guarantee delivery routes.
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暴力不可避免
16:19
The second thing I want you to remember
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第二点是
16:21
is that these are sophisticated,
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他们的组织结构都非常复杂
16:23
coherent organizations
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内部非常紧密
16:26
that are business organizations,
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他们实际上是商业组织
16:28
and analyzing them and treating them as such
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从这点出发来分析和打击他们
16:30
is probably a much more useful approach.
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或许会有更好的效果
16:33
The third thing I want you to remember
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我想说的第三件事情是
16:35
is that even though we're more comfortable
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即使我们非常习惯于称呼这些组织
16:37
with this idea of "them,"
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称呼为"他们"
16:39
a set of bad guys separated from us,
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把他们看作远离我们的一群坏蛋
16:42
we are actually accomplices to them,
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但是实际上我们是他们的同伙
16:45
either through our direct consumption
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要么是通过对毒品的直接消费
16:47
or through our acceptance of the inconsistency
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要么是通过你对毒品的接受或容忍
16:52
between our policies of prohibition
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在法律法规禁止吸毒的同时
16:54
and our actual behavior of tolerance
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我们却能包容
16:57
or even encouragement of consumption.
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甚至鼓励吸毒行为
17:01
These organizations service, recruit from,
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这些组织为我们提供服务
17:05
and operate within our communities,
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从我们中招募新人,在我们的社区做生意
17:07
so necessarily, they are much more integrated
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所以必然的,他们跟我们之间的关系
17:10
within them than we are comfortable acknowledging.
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要比我们乐意承认的程度紧密得多
17:14
And so to me the question is not whether
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所以对我而言,我不会去怀疑
17:17
these dynamics will continue the way they have.
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这些组织的运作方式能够延续下去
17:20
We see that the nature of this phenomenon
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看到了这种现状的本质
17:23
guarantees that they will.
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我们就知道它一定会延续下去
17:26
The question is whether we are willing to continue
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而我们要思考的是,我们是否愿意
17:29
our support of a failed strategy
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继续执行失败的毒品控制政策
17:33
based on our stubborn, blissful, voluntary ignorance
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继续保持着我们自己的顽固,天真,假装无知
17:39
at the cost of the deaths of thousands of our young.
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罔视那些死去的、数以千计的年轻人
17:44
Thank you.
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谢谢大家
17:45
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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