Stefan Wolff: The path to ending ethnic conflicts

翻译人员: Eric Zhao 校对人员: Felix Chen

Today I want to talk to you

今天我想同你们谈谈

about ethnic conflict

种族冲突

and civil war.

与内战

These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,

它们大多不是让人开心的话题

nor do they generally generate

也很少带来

the kind of good news

令人高兴的好消息

that this conference is about.

这就是今天的议题

Yet, not only is there at least some good news

尽管如此，我们至少还有一些好消息

to be told about fewer such conflicts now

和20年前相比

than two decades ago,

这类冲突已经日趋减少

but what is perhaps more important

但也许更重要的是

is that we also have come

我们已经开始

to a much better understanding of what can be done

更好的理解了可以做些什么

to further reduce the number

来进一步减少

of ethnic conflicts and civil wars

种族冲突和内战

and the suffering that they inflict.

以及伴随而来的痛苦。

Three things stand out:

主要有三点：

leadership, diplomacy

领导力，外交手腕

and institutional design.

和制度设计。

What I will focus on in my talk

今天的演讲，我会重点谈谈

is why they matter, how they matter,

这三点为什么重要，如何重要

and what we can all do

已经我们可以做些什么

to make sure that they continue to matter

来确保这三个重要因素

in the right ways,

继续发挥真面影响力

that is, how all of us can contribute

也就是谈谈，我们每一个人都可以怎样贡献

to developing and honing the skills

来培育和打磨

of local and global leaders

本地与世界领导人

to make peace

和解并保持长治久安

and to make it last.

的能力和技巧。

But let's start at the beginning.

首先，让我们从头开始

Civil wars have made news headlines

几十年里来

for many decades now,

内战一直占据新闻头条的位置

and ethnic conflicts in particular

尤其是种族冲突，

have been a near constant presence

近期不断地作为

as a major international security threat.

危害世界安全的主要威胁出现。

For nearly two decades now,

过去20年来，

the news has been bad

负面新闻不断

and the images have been haunting.

境况是令人困扰的。

In Georgia, after years of stalemate,

在格鲁吉亚，经过多年的对峙之后，

we saw a full-scale resurgence of violence

在2008年8月

in August, 2008.

再度爆发全面的暴力冲突

This quickly escalated into a five-day war

而且很快恶化为俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚之间的

between Russia and Georgia,

五日战争

leaving Georgia ever more divided.

这令格鲁吉亚更加分崩离析

In Kenya, contested presidential elections in 2007 --

在肯尼亚，2007年有争议的总统选举

we just heard about them --

我们最近才听到这件事

quickly led to high levels

立刻转变为严重的

of inter-ethnic violence

种族间的暴力冲突

and the killing and displacement

成千上万的人

of thousands of people.

遭到杀害，流离失所

In Sri Lanka,

在斯里兰卡

a decades-long civil war

持续了十年的

between the Tamil minority

泰米尔少数民族与主要民族僧伽罗之间的

and the Sinhala majority

内战

led to a bloody climax in 2009,

在2009年到达了血腥的顶点

after perhaps as many as 100,000

自1983年以来

people had been killed

已近有将近

since 1983.

十万人死于内战

In Kyrgyzstan, just over the last few weeks,

在吉尔吉斯斯坦，仅几个星期的功夫，

unprecedented levels of violence occurred

史无前例的暴力冲突发生

between ethnic Kyrgyz

于吉尔吉斯族

and ethnic Uzbeks.

和乌兹别克族之间。

Hundreds have been killed,

成百上千人死去

and more than 100,000 displaced,

十万余人流离失所，

including many ethnic Uzbeks

其中包括诸多逃亡邻国乌兹别克斯坦的

who fled to neighboring Uzbekistan.

乌孜别克族人

In the Middle East,

在中东地区

conflict between Israelis and Palestinians

以色列和巴勒斯坦间的冲突

continues unabated,

持续不断

and it becomes ever more difficult

越来越难让人预见

to see how, just how

怎么达成

a possible, sustainable solution

一个两方接受，持续可行的

can be achieved.

和平解决方案。

Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,

达尔富尔可能已经从新闻头条中淡出了，

but the killing and displacement there

但那里的杀戮和流离失所

continues as well,

依然继续着

and the sheer human misery that it creates

而且这带给当地人的苦难

is very hard to fathom.

远超你我的想象

And in Iraq, finally,

最后，看看伊拉克，

violence is on the rise again,

暴力又重新抬头

and the country has yet to form a government

伊拉克四个月前

four months after

进行的国会选举

its last parliamentary elections.

直到目前仍未能形成执政政府。

But hang on, this talk is to be about the good news.

但等等，这个演讲应该带来好消息的

So are these now the images of the past?

所以说，以上提到的情形已经过去了吗？

Well, notwithstanding the gloomy pictures

嗯，虽然悲惨的现状

from the Middle East, Darfur,

存在于中东，达尔富尔

Iraq, elsewhere,

伊拉克及其他地区

there is a longer-term trend

从长期来看

that does represent some good news.

我们的确有好消息

Over the past two decades, since the end of the Cold War,

自冷战后的20年来

there has been an overall decline

战争的次数

in the number of civil wars.

总体来说是在减少的

Since the high in the early 1990s,

在九十年代早期最高峰时

with about 50 such civil wars ongoing,

大约有50场的内战

we now have 30 percent fewer

现在，冲突已经减少

such conflicts today.

百分之三十

The number of people killed in civil wars

如今在内战中惨遭杀害的人

also is much lower today

也远低于

than it was a decade ago or two.

十年前或二十年前的数字

But this trend is less unambiguous.

但是，这个趋势也不完全清晰

The highest level of deaths on the battlefield

战场上最多的死亡人数

was recorded between 1998 and 2001,

记录在1998和2001年之间，

with about 80,000 soldiers, policemen and rebels

大约每年有八万左右的士兵，警察和反抗者

killed every year.

被杀害

The lowest number of combatant casualties

战争中死亡人人数的最低数量

occurred in 2003,

出现在2003年

with just 20,000 killed.

大约两万人遇害

Despite the up and down since then,

尽管后来有数字上的起伏，上上下下，

the overall trend --

总体的趋势

and this is the important bit --

也是最重要的关键

clearly points downward

在过去20年

for the past two decades.

下降很明显

The news about civilian casualties

有关平民遇害的新闻报道

is also less bad than it used to be.

与以前相比相对减少

From over 12,000 civilians

在1997与1998年间

deliberately killed in civil wars

超过一万两千平民

in 1997 and 1998,

在内战中遭到屠杀

a decade later,

十年之后

this figure stands at 4,000.

这个数目仅为4000

This is a decrease by two-thirds.

数字减少了三分之二

This decline would be even more obvious

如果我们算上卢旺达1994年的种族清洗

if we factored in the genocide in Rwanda

减少趋势就更明显了

in 1994.

在1994

But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered

在短短几个月内

in a matter of just a few months.

就有八十万平民遭到屠杀

This certainly is an accomplishment

这肯定是个

that must never be surpassed.

无法超越的进步。

What is also important is to note

重要的是要知道

that these figures only tell part of the story.

这些数字仅告诉我们事实的冰山一角

They exclude people

这些数字没有包括

that died as a consequence of civil war,

由于内战而死的人

from hunger or disease, for example.

例如：死于饥饿和疾病的人

And they also do not properly account

这些数字也无法真实地反映

for civilian suffering more generally.

遭受各种苦难的平民百姓

Torture, rape and ethnic cleansing

折磨，强奸和种族清洗

have become highly effective,

已经成为内战中极为有效

if often non-lethal, weapons in civil war.

令人生不如死的非致命武器

To put it differently,

换句话说

for the civilians that suffer the consequences

对于由于种族冲突和内战而遭受伤害

of ethnic conflict and civil war,

平民百姓来说

there is no good war

没有好战争，

and there is no bad peace.

也没有坏和平。

Thus, even though every civilian killed,

任何一位平民遭到杀害、致残，抢劫，或折磨

maimed, raped, or tortured is one too many,

都不能轻视

the fact that the number

然而平民死亡的数字

of civilian casualties

比起十年前

is clearly lower today

已无疑减少

than it was a decade ago,

这个事实

is good news.

的确是好消息

So, we have fewer conflicts today

今日冲突数量的减少

in which fewer people get killed.

遭到杀害的人数下降

And the big question, of course,

我们当然要问这样一个核心问题：

is why?

为什么减少？

In some cases,

在某些案例之中

there is a military victory of one side.

是一方获得了军事胜利

This is a solution of sorts,

这是一种解决方法

but rarely is it one

但是这种解决方法

that comes without human costs

很少是在没有人员伤亡

or humanitarian consequences.

或是没有人道代价之下达成的

The defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka

斯里兰卡的塔米尔之虎的战败

is perhaps the most recent example of this,

我想是最近的一个血腥例子

but we have seen similar

但是我们也在巴尔干半岛、南高加索

so-called military solutions

以及非洲的大部分地区

in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus

见过类似的

and across most of Africa.

所谓的血腥

At times, they are complimented

在其他情况下

by negotiated settlements,

冲突者因为谈判解决而接受赞扬

or at least cease-fire agreements,

或是至少达成停火协议

and peacekeepers are deployed.

接受和平部队派驻

But hardly ever do they represent

但这些情况并不表示

a resounding success --

成功获得的和平

Bosnia and Herzegovina

波斯利亚和黑赛格威那

perhaps more so than Georgia.

与乔治亚相比，更接近这种状况

But for many parts of Africa,

但对于非洲的多数区域

a colleague of mine once put it this way,

我的同事曾经如此形容：

"The cease-fire on Tuesday night

“星期二晚上的停火协议

was reached just in time

及时阻止了

for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning."

星期三早上开始的种族屠杀”

But let's look at the good news again.

我们再回头看看好消息

If there's no solution on the battlefield,

如果战场上无法获得解决方案

three factors can account

有三个因素

for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,

可以阻止种族冲突与内战

or for sustainable peace afterwards:

获取得日后足以令人接受的和平

leadership, diplomacy

领导能力、外交手腕

and institutional design.

以及制度设计

Take the example of Northern Ireland.

以北爱尔兰为例

Despite centuries of animosity,

即使有着几个世纪的仇恨

decades of violence

数十年的暴力冲突

and thousands of people killed,

数千人遭受杀害

1998 saw the conclusion

仍与1998年达成了

of an historic agreement.

历史性的协议

Its initial version was skillfully mediated

乔治.米切尔参议员十分有技巧性的斡旋了

by Senator George Mitchell.

双方最初的协议版本

Crucially, for the long-term success

让北爱尔兰的和平进程

of the peace process in Northern Ireland,

能够长久维持的关键

he imposed very clear conditions

是他为参与和谈的双方

for the participation and negotiations.

加上了十分明确的条件

Central among them,

在这些条件之中

a commitment

最重要的是只能使用

to exclusively peaceful means.

和平手段的承诺

Subsequent revisions of the agreement

随后的修订协议

were facilitated by the British and Irish governments,

因为英国与爱尔兰

who never wavered in their determination

没有动摇的和平决心

to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.

迅速带来了北爱尔兰的和平与稳定

The core institutions

在1998年起草的

that were put in place in 1998

核心宪法

and their modifications

以及2006与2008年

in 2006 and 2008

对宪法的修订

were highly innovative

都具有十足创新的精神

and allowed all conflict parties

并让所有互相冲突的党派

to see their core concerns and demands addressed.

见到他们所关注的核心问题、需求获得解决

The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement

这份协议结合了北爱尔兰

in Northern Ireland

权利分享的安排

with cross-border institutions

与超越国境的宪法

that link Belfast and Dublin

连接了贝尔法特与都柏林

and thus recognizes

以此承认了

the so-called Irish dimension of the conflict.

所谓的爱尔兰地区的冲突

And significantly,

显而易见

there's also a clear focus

这份宪法同时明确地保障了

on both the rights of individuals

个人的权利

and the rights of communities.

与当地社群的权利

The provisions in the agreement may be complex,

也许这份协议的条款非常复杂

but so is the underlying conflict.

但是在它背后冲突也是同样复杂

Perhaps most importantly,

最重要的是

local leaders repeatedly rose to the challenge of compromise,

当地领袖不断地回应对于妥协让步的反对意见

not always fast

不见得每次都反映迅速

and not always enthusiastically,

也不见得每次都充满热情

but rise in the end they did.

但是最终证明他们缔造了和平

Who ever could have imagined

又有谁想象得到

Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness

易安·佩斯里与马丁·麦吉尼斯

jointly governing Northern Ireland

以首相和副首相的身份

as First and Deputy First Minister?

携手共同领导北爱尔兰政府

But then, is Northern Ireland a unique example,

然而，北爱尔兰究竟是个特例？

or does this kind of explanation

还是这种解释

only hold more generally

一般只能套用在

in democratic and developed countries?

民主与已发展国家上？

By no means.

绝非如此

The ending of Liberia's long-lasting civil war

2003年所结束的

in 2003

利比亚漫长的内战

illustrates the importance

描绘了

of leadership, diplomacy

领导力、外交手腕

and institutional design

以及宪法设计的重要性

as much as the successful prevention

这三个因素也成功阻止了

of a full-scale civil war

2001年马其顿

in Macedonia in 2001,

即将爆发的全面内战

or the successful ending

以及成功结束了

of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.

2005年发生在印尼亚齐地区的冲突

In all three cases,

在这三个案例之中

local leaders were willing and able

当地领袖都愿意，也都有能力

to make peace,

缔造和平

the international community stood ready

国际社会也准备好

to help them negotiate and implement an agreement,

协助他们谈判与制定协议

and the institutions have lived up

宪法制度则实践了

to the promise that they held

自点头同意那天开始

on the day they were agreed.

各党派许诺下的承诺

Focusing on leadership, diplomacy

注重领导力、外交手腕

and institutional design

与制度设计

also helps explain failures to achieve peace,

也选择了无法得到和平或是

or to make it last.

和平无法长久维持的原因

The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords

人们对于奥斯陆协议所赋予的希望

did not lead to an end

并没有终结

of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

以色列人于巴勒斯坦人的冲突

Not all the issues that needed to be resolved

双方需要解决的问题

were actually covered in the agreements.

并没有全部达成协议

Rather, local leaders committed

结果，当地领袖承诺

to revisiting them later on.

稍后重新协议

Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,

他们并没有抓住和平的机会

local and international leaders

本地领袖与国际领袖

soon disengaged

不久之后就分道扬镳

and became distracted

并且因为随后的

by the second Intifada, the events of 9/11

第二次巴勒斯坦起义、911事件

and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

阿富汗与伊拉克的战争而心烦意乱

The comprehensive peace agreement for Sudan

苏丹在2005年所签署

signed in 2005

详尽的和平协议

turned out to be less comprehensive than envisaged,

最终证明不如预期

and its provisions may yet bear the seeds

而且它的条款很可能埋下

of a full-scale return to war

南北之间

between north and south.

再次引发全面战争的种子

Changes and shortcomings in leadership,

领导人的更迭与领导能力的缺乏

more off than on international diplomacy

以及国际外交

and institutional failures

无效的制度

account for this

三者同时

in almost equal measure.

导致了失败

Unresolved boundary issues, squabbles over oil revenues,

尚未解决的国界问题、原油收益的争议

the ongoing conflict in Darfur,

达尔富尔正在进行的冲突

escalating tribal violence in the south

都加剧了南苏丹的部落暴力冲突

and generally weak state capacity

也削弱了苏丹对于

across all of Sudan

全国的控制能力

complete a very depressing picture

这些都为非洲最大的国家

of the state of affairs

未来的前景

in Africa's largest country.

绘制了一幅令人沮丧的画像

A final example: Kosovo.

最后一个例子：科索沃

The failure to achieve

科索沃谈判

a negotiated solution for Kosovo

以失败收场

and the violence, tension

当地的暴力冲突、紧张情势

and de facto partition that resulted from it

以及所导致的实质分裂

have their reasons

都牵涉到

in many, many different factors.

众多不同的因素

Central among them are three.

其中最关键的因素有三：

First, the intransigence of local leaders

第一，每位当地的领袖

to settle for nothing less

贪求自己的最高利益

than their maximum demands.

不愿妥协让步

Second, an international diplomatic effort

第二，国际外交所作的努力

that was hampered from the beginning

从一开始就因为西方国家支持科索沃独立

by Western support for Kosovo's independence.

而遭到莫大的阻碍

And third, a lack of imagination

第三，制定足以同时

when it came to designing institutions

保障塞尔维亚人与阿尔巴利亚人

that could have addressed the concerns

的制度之时

of Serbs and Albanians alike.

缺乏对于未来的前瞻性

By the same token --

同样的

and here we have some good news again --

我们在此也有些好消息

the very fact that there is a high-level,

从2008开始至今两年

well-resourced international presence

科索沃目前

in Kosovo

已有高层次、资源充足的

and the Balkans region more generally

国际势力介入调停

and the fact that local leaders on both sides

而且巴尔干地区已经普遍地展示出

have showed relative restraint,

双方的当地领袖

explains why things have not been worse

拥有相当的自制力

over the past two years since 2008.

让事态不再继续恶化

So even in situations

所以，即使是

where outcomes are less than optimal,

情势不甚乐观的局面

local leaders

当地领袖

and international leaders have a choice,

与国际领袖仍有抉择的空间

and they can make a difference for the better.

他们拥有能力打造更好的未来

A cold war

冷战

is not as good

不会比冷和平

as a cold peace,

来的更好

but a cold peace

但是冷和平

is still better than a hot war.

总比战争爆发的好得多

Good news is also about learning the right lesson.

好消息也包括学习正确的教训

So what then distinguishes

是什么原因造成

the Israeli/Palestinian conflict

以色列人与巴勒斯坦人的冲突

from that in Northern Ireland,

与北爱尔兰不同的结局？

or the civil war in Sudan

导致苏丹内战

from that in Liberia?

与利比亚不同的结果？

Both successes and failures

成功与失败

teach us several critically important things

都会给予我们必须

that we need to bear in mind

谨记在心的教训

if we want the good news to continue.

如果我们希望好消息持续下去

First, leadership.

第一，领导能力

In the same way in which ethnic conflict and civil war

无论是种族冲突还是内战

are not natural

不是天灾

but man-made disasters,

而是人祸

their prevention and settlement

组织与解决纷争

does not happen automatically either.

不会如同天灾结束一般水到渠成

Leadership needs to be capable,

领导者必须有能力

determined and visionary

拥有决心与愿景

in its commitment to peace.

致力于缔造和平

Leaders need to connect to each other

领导者之间必须合作

and to their followers,

团结彼此的追随者

and they need to bring them along

以带领他们

on what is an often arduous journey

踏上艰巨的旅程

into a peaceful future.

一起走向和平的未来

Second, diplomacy.

第二，外交手腕

Diplomacy needs to be well resourced,

外交必须拥有充足的资源

sustained,

持续不断努力

and apply the right mix of incentives and pressures

以及施加与领袖与追随者之上

on leaders and followers.

恰到好处的诱因与压力

It needs to help them reach an equitable compromise,

外交必须协助他们达成彼此公平的妥协让步

and it needs to ensure

也必须确保

that a broad coalition

当地

of local, regional

与国际支持者之间

and international supporters

广大的联盟

help them implement their agreement.

以协助他们制定协议

Third, institutional design.

第三，制度设计

Institutional design requires

制度设计需要

a keen focus on issues,

对于问题的敏锐专注

innovative thinking

创新的思考

and flexible and well-funded implementation.

以及具有弹性与资金充足的实施方法

Conflict parties need to move away

冲突的党派必须从彼此的最高利益之下

from maximum demands

各让一步

and towards a compromise

已达成承认彼此需求的

that recognizes each other's needs.

妥协结果

And they need to think

而且他们必须思考

about the substance of their agreement

协议的实质意义

much more than about

而不是

the labels they want to attach to them.

他们想加在其上的标签

Conflict parties also need to be prepared

冲突的党派也必须在

to return to the negotiation table

协议实行停滞不前的时候

if the agreement implementation stalls.

做好回到谈判桌旁的准备

For me personally,

我个人而言

the most critical lesson of all is this:

从这些例子中得到的最重要的教训是：

Local commitment to peace

当地是否致力于和平

is all-important,

非常重要

but it is often not enough

光是这样不够

to prevent or end violence.

为了阻止或终结暴力冲突

Yet, no amount of diplomacy

再多的外交技巧

or institutional design

和制度设计

can make up for local failures

都不能弥补当地的失败

and the consequences that they have.

和其后果

Therefore, we must invest

所以，我们必须为了

in developing leaders,

培养领导人而投资

leaders that have the skills,

培养有本领

vision and determination

有远见和决心

to make peace.

制造和平的领导人

Leaders, in other words,

也就是说要培养

that people will trust

人民会信任

and that they will want to follow

并且愿意追随的领导人

even if that means

即使这意味着

making hard choices.

要做出艰难的决定

A final thought:

最后一点：

Ending civil wars

结束内战

is a process that is fraught with dangers,

是充满危险

frustrations and setbacks.

挫败和挫折的过程。

It often takes a generation to accomplish,

往往几代人才能做到，

but it also requires us, today's generation,

但是我们这代人也必须要这样去做

to take responsibility

去承担起责任

and to learn the right lessons

去正确地学习

about leadership, diplomacy

领导力，外交才能

and institutional design,

和制度设计

so that the child soldiers of today

这样，今天的童子军

can become the children of tomorrow.

才能称为明天享有和平的儿童

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）