Stefan Wolff: The path to ending ethnic conflicts

譯者: Kung-Ming Lin 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

Today I want to talk to you

今天向各位演講的內容是

about ethnic conflict

「種族衝突

and civil war.

以及內戰」

These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,

一般說來，這種主題不會振奮人心

nor do they generally generate

通常也不會傳達

the kind of good news

令人欣慰的好消息

that this conference is about.

這就是今天研討會的議題

Yet, not only is there at least some good news

然而，我們至少還有一些好消息：

to be told about fewer such conflicts now

比起二十年前的情況

than two decades ago,

這類衝突已經日趨減少

but what is perhaps more important

也許更重要的是

is that we also have come

現在我們已經更加瞭解

to a much better understanding of what can be done

必須採取什麼方法

to further reduce the number

才能減少

of ethnic conflicts and civil wars

種族衝突與內戰

and the suffering that they inflict.

以及隨之而來的苦難

Three things stand out:

其中包括三個顯著的因素：

leadership, diplomacy

領導能力、外交手腕

and institutional design.

以及憲政設計

What I will focus on in my talk

今天的演講，我會著重在：

is why they matter, how they matter,

這三者為什麼重要、有多重要

and what we can all do

以及我們能夠作些什麼

to make sure that they continue to matter

以確保這三個重要的因素

in the right ways,

繼續發揮正面的影響力

that is, how all of us can contribute

也就是，我們全人類如何貢獻心力

to developing and honing the skills

以培養、琢磨

of local and global leaders

當地與國際領袖

to make peace

締結休戰

and to make it last.

並長久維護和平的技巧

But let's start at the beginning.

現在，我們先回到原點

Civil wars have made news headlines

幾十年來

for many decades now,

內戰一直是新聞標題的常客

and ethnic conflicts in particular

特別是種族衝突

have been a near constant presence

已經是持續不斷的

as a major international security threat.

重大國際安全威脅

For nearly two decades now,

過去二十年來

the news has been bad

壞消息不斷

and the images have been haunting.

境況也令人憂心

In Georgia, after years of stalemate,

在喬治亞，經過多年的對峙

we saw a full-scale resurgence of violence

於 2008 年八月

in August, 2008.

再度爆發全面的暴力衝突

This quickly escalated into a five-day war

迅速惡化為俄羅斯與喬治亞之間的

between Russia and Georgia,

五日戰爭

leaving Georgia ever more divided.

導致喬治亞更為分崩離析

In Kenya, contested presidential elections in 2007 --

在肯亞，2007 年備受爭議的總統選舉

we just heard about them --

——我們才剛聼到這件事的演講——

quickly led to high levels

立刻轉變為嚴重的

of inter-ethnic violence

種族之間的暴力衝突

and the killing and displacement

成千上萬的人

of thousands of people.

遭受殺害、流離失所

In Sri Lanka,

在斯里蘭卡

a decades-long civil war

少數族群泰米爾人

between the Tamil minority

與多數族群僧伽羅人之間

and the Sinhala majority

數十年漫長的內戰

led to a bloody climax in 2009,

於 2009 年演變為恐怖的血腥衝突

after perhaps as many as 100,000

在此之前，自 1983 年以來

people had been killed

已經有將近

since 1983.

十萬人死於內戰

In Kyrgyzstan, just over the last few weeks,

在吉爾吉斯，僅在前幾個星期之中

unprecedented levels of violence occurred

吉爾吉斯族人

between ethnic Kyrgyz

與烏茲別克族人之間

and ethnic Uzbeks.

爆發了史無前例的暴力衝突

Hundreds have been killed,

數百人遭到殺害

and more than 100,000 displaced,

超過十萬人無家可歸

including many ethnic Uzbeks

其中包括許多逃到鄰國烏茲別克的

who fled to neighboring Uzbekistan.

烏茲別克族人

In the Middle East,

在中東地區

conflict between Israelis and Palestinians

以色列人與巴勒斯坦人之間的衝突

continues unabated,

持續不斷

and it becomes ever more difficult

而我們愈來愈難以預見

to see how, just how

該如何達成

a possible, sustainable solution

可以令兩方接受、長久維持

can be achieved.

的和平方案

Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,

達佛地區也許沒有出現在新聞標題上

but the killing and displacement there

但是當地的殺戮與人民的流離失所

continues as well,

從未間斷

and the sheer human misery that it creates

該地所製造的人間悲劇

is very hard to fathom.

遠超過你我的想像

And in Iraq, finally,

在伊拉克

violence is on the rise again,

終於再度面臨暴力衝突

and the country has yet to form a government

而伊拉克於四個月前

four months after

進行的國會選舉

its last parliamentary elections.

直到目前仍無法籌組政府

But hang on, this talk is to be about the good news.

但是，我的演講帶來的是好消息

So are these now the images of the past?

所以剛提到的都是過去的境況了嗎？

Well, notwithstanding the gloomy pictures

雖然我們看到了悲慘灰暗的現狀

from the Middle East, Darfur,

存在於中東、達佛

Iraq, elsewhere,

伊拉克、以及其他地區。

there is a longer-term trend

以長期的趨勢來看

that does represent some good news.

我們確實有好消息

Over the past two decades, since the end of the Cold War,

自從冷戰結束以來的二十年間

there has been an overall decline

內戰的數量

in the number of civil wars.

呈現下降的趨勢

Since the high in the early 1990s,

從 1990 年代早期的高峰期

with about 50 such civil wars ongoing,

大約有 50 場內戰

we now have 30 percent fewer

而至今天，這種衝突的數量

such conflicts today.

減少了百分之三十

The number of people killed in civil wars

今日在內戰之中遭到殺害的人數

also is much lower today

也遠低於

than it was a decade ago or two.

十年前或二十年前的數字

But this trend is less unambiguous.

但是，這個趨勢並不明顯

The highest level of deaths on the battlefield

戰場上最多的死亡人數

was recorded between 1998 and 2001,

紀錄於 1998 年到 2001 年之間

with about 80,000 soldiers, policemen and rebels

大約是每年八萬名軍人、警察、叛軍

killed every year.

死於戰場

The lowest number of combatant casualties

最低的戰鬥人員死亡人數

occurred in 2003,

紀錄於 2003 年

with just 20,000 killed.

只有兩萬人死亡

Despite the up and down since then,

雖然數字上下起伏不定

the overall trend --

總體的趨勢

and this is the important bit --

——也是最重要的關鍵——

clearly points downward

明顯下降

for the past two decades.

過去二十年來

The news about civilian casualties

有關平民死亡的新聞

is also less bad than it used to be.

與往昔比較亦相對減輕

From over 12,000 civilians

在 1997 年與 1998 年間

deliberately killed in civil wars

超過一萬兩千位平民

in 1997 and 1998,

遭到蓄意屠殺

a decade later,

十年之後

this figure stands at 4,000.

遭到殺害的平民降低為四千人

This is a decrease by two-thirds.

數字減少了三分之二

This decline would be even more obvious

如果我們列入 1994 年

if we factored in the genocide in Rwanda

盧安達的種族屠殺

in 1994.

下降的趨勢就更為明顯

But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered

那時在短短的幾個月之內

in a matter of just a few months.

就有八十萬平民遭到屠殺

This certainly is an accomplishment

這是我們後人永遠不可超越的

that must never be surpassed.

殘暴罪行

What is also important is to note

我們也應該同樣謹記

that these figures only tell part of the story.

這些數字只代表著冰山的一角

They exclude people

這些數字沒有列入

that died as a consequence of civil war,

因為內戰造成的飢荒、疾病

from hunger or disease, for example.

種種惡果之下死亡的人數

And they also do not properly account

這些數字也無法真實地反映

for civilian suffering more generally.

遭受各種苦難的平民百姓

Torture, rape and ethnic cleansing

酷刑、強暴、種族淨化

have become highly effective,

已經成為內戰之中極為有效

if often non-lethal, weapons in civil war.

令人生不如死的非致命性武器

To put it differently,

換句話說

for the civilians that suffer the consequences

對於遭受種族衝突、內戰苦果的

of ethnic conflict and civil war,

平民百姓來說

there is no good war

戰爭永遠是邪惡的

and there is no bad peace.

和平永遠是良善

Thus, even though every civilian killed,

任何一位平民遭到殺害、傷殘、強暴、酷刑

maimed, raped, or tortured is one too many,

都不能輕視

the fact that the number

然而平民死亡的數字

of civilian casualties

比起十年前

is clearly lower today

已經明顯降低

than it was a decade ago,

這項事實

is good news.

確實是好消息

So, we have fewer conflicts today

今日的衝突數量減少

in which fewer people get killed.

遭受殺害的人數下降

And the big question, of course,

我們當然要問一個核心問題：

is why?

「為什麼減少？」

In some cases,

某些案例之中

there is a military victory of one side.

是一方獲得了軍事勝利

This is a solution of sorts,

這是一種解決方法

but rarely is it one

但是這種解決方法

that comes without human costs

很少是在沒有人員傷亡

or humanitarian consequences.

或是沒有人道代價之下達成的

The defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka

斯里蘭卡的塔米爾之虎的戰敗

is perhaps the most recent example of this,

我想是最近的一個血腥例子

but we have seen similar

但是我們也在巴爾幹半島、南高加索

so-called military solutions

以及非洲的大部分區域

in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus

見過類似的

and across most of Africa.

所謂的血腥「軍事手段」

At times, they are complimented

在其他的情況之中

by negotiated settlements,

衝突者因為談判解決而接受讚揚

or at least cease-fire agreements,

或是至少達成停火協議

and peacekeepers are deployed.

接受和平部隊派駐

But hardly ever do they represent

但是這些情況並不表示

a resounding success --

成功獲得的和平

Bosnia and Herzegovina

波士尼亞與黑塞哥維那

perhaps more so than Georgia.

與喬治亞相比，更接近此種狀況

But for many parts of Africa,

但對於非洲的多數區域

a colleague of mine once put it this way,

我的同事曾經如此形容：

"The cease-fire on Tuesday night

「星期二晚上的停火協議

was reached just in time

及時阻止了

for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning."

星期三早上正要開始的種族屠殺」

But let's look at the good news again.

我們回頭再看看好的消息

If there's no solution on the battlefield,

如果戰場之上無法獲得解決方案

three factors can account

有三個因素

for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,

可以阻止種族衝突與內戰

or for sustainable peace afterwards:

或取得日後足以令人接受的和平

leadership, diplomacy

領導能力、外交手腕

and institutional design.

以及憲政設計

Take the example of Northern Ireland.

以北愛爾蘭為例

Despite centuries of animosity,

即使有著橫跨幾個世紀的仇恨

decades of violence

數十年的暴力衝突

and thousands of people killed,

數千人遭受殺害

1998 saw the conclusion

仍於 1998 年達成了

of an historic agreement.

歷史性的協議

Its initial version was skillfully mediated

喬治．米切爾參議員十分有技巧地中介了

by Senator George Mitchell.

雙方最初的協議版本

Crucially, for the long-term success

讓北愛爾蘭的和平進程

of the peace process in Northern Ireland,

能夠長久維持的關鍵

he imposed very clear conditions

是他為了雙方參與和談判

for the participation and negotiations.

加上了十分明確的條件

Central among them,

在這些條件之中

a commitment

最重要的是只能使用

to exclusively peaceful means.

和平手段的承諾

Subsequent revisions of the agreement

隨後的修訂協議

were facilitated by the British and Irish governments,

因為英國與愛爾蘭政府

who never wavered in their determination

從未動搖的和平決心

to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.

迅速帶來了北愛爾蘭的和平與穩定

The core institutions

於 1998 年起草的

that were put in place in 1998

核心憲法

and their modifications

以及 2006 與 2008 年

in 2006 and 2008

對憲法的修訂

were highly innovative

具有十足創新的精神

and allowed all conflict parties

並讓所有互相衝突的黨派

to see their core concerns and demands addressed.

見到他們所關注的核心問題、需求獲得處理

The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement

此份協議結合了北愛爾蘭

in Northern Ireland

分享權力的安排

with cross-border institutions

與超越國境的憲法

that link Belfast and Dublin

連接了貝爾法斯特與都柏林

and thus recognizes

以此承認了

the so-called Irish dimension of the conflict.

所謂的愛爾蘭地區的衝突

And significantly,

顯而易見

there's also a clear focus

這份憲法同時明確地保障了

on both the rights of individuals

個人的權利

and the rights of communities.

與當地社群的權利

The provisions in the agreement may be complex,

也許這份協議的條款非常複雜

but so is the underlying conflict.

但是在它背後的衝突也是同樣複雜

Perhaps most importantly,

最重要的是

local leaders repeatedly rose to the challenge of compromise,

當地領袖不斷地回應對於妥協讓步的反對意見

not always fast

不見得每次都迅速反應

and not always enthusiastically,

也不見得每次都充滿熱情

but rise in the end they did.

但是最終證明他們締造了和平

Who ever could have imagined

又有誰想像得到

Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness

依安．佩斯利與馬丁．麥吉尼斯

jointly governing Northern Ireland

以首相與副首相的身份

as First and Deputy First Minister?

攜手共同領導北愛爾蘭政府

But then, is Northern Ireland a unique example,

然而，北愛爾蘭究竟是個特例？

or does this kind of explanation

還是這種解釋

only hold more generally

一般只能套用在

in democratic and developed countries?

民主與已發展國家上？

By no means.

絕非如此

The ending of Liberia's long-lasting civil war

2003 年所結束

in 2003

利比亞漫長的內戰

illustrates the importance

描繪了

of leadership, diplomacy

領導能力、外交手腕

and institutional design

以及憲法設計的重要性

as much as the successful prevention

這三個因素也成功阻止了

of a full-scale civil war

2001 年馬其頓

in Macedonia in 2001,

即將爆發的全面內戰

or the successful ending

以及成功結束了

of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.

2005 年發生於印尼亞齊地區的衝突

In all three cases,

在這三個案例之中

local leaders were willing and able

當地領袖皆願意、亦有能力

to make peace,

締造和平

the international community stood ready

國際社會也準備好

to help them negotiate and implement an agreement,

協助他們談判與制定協議

and the institutions have lived up

憲法制度則實踐了

to the promise that they held

自從點頭同意那天開始

on the day they were agreed.

各方黨派所許下的承諾

Focusing on leadership, diplomacy

注重領導能力、外交手腕

and institutional design

與憲法設計

also helps explain failures to achieve peace,

也解釋了無法得到和平或是

or to make it last.

和平無法長久維持的原因

The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords

人們對於奧斯陸協定所賦予的希望

did not lead to an end

並沒有終結

of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

以色列人與巴勒斯坦人的衝突

Not all the issues that needed to be resolved

雙方需要解決的問題

were actually covered in the agreements.

並沒有全部達成協議

Rather, local leaders committed

結果，當地領袖承諾

to revisiting them later on.

稍後重審協議

Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,

他們並沒有抓住和平的機會

local and international leaders

當地與國際領袖

soon disengaged

不久之後即分崩離析

and became distracted

並且因為隨後的

by the second Intifada, the events of 9/11

第二次巴勒斯坦大起義、9/11 事件

and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

阿富汗與伊拉克的戰爭而分心

The comprehensive peace agreement for Sudan

蘇丹於 2005 年所簽署

signed in 2005

詳盡的和平協議

turned out to be less comprehensive than envisaged,

最後證明它不如預期

and its provisions may yet bear the seeds

而且它的條款很可能埋下

of a full-scale return to war

南北之間

between north and south.

再次引發全面戰爭的種子

Changes and shortcomings in leadership,

領袖的更迭與缺乏領導能力

more off than on international diplomacy

以及國際外交

and institutional failures

無效的憲政

account for this

三者同時

in almost equal measure.

導致了失敗的結局

Unresolved boundary issues, squabbles over oil revenues,

尚未解決的國界問題、原油收益的爭議

the ongoing conflict in Darfur,

達佛正在進行的衝突

escalating tribal violence in the south

都加劇了南蘇丹的部落暴力衝突

and generally weak state capacity

也削弱了蘇丹對於

across all of Sudan

全國的控制能力

complete a very depressing picture

這些都為非洲最大的國家

of the state of affairs

未來的前景

in Africa's largest country.

繪製了一幅令人沮喪的畫像

A final example: Kosovo.

最後一個例子：科索沃

The failure to achieve

科索沃談判

a negotiated solution for Kosovo

以失敗收場

and the violence, tension

當地的暴力衝突、緊張情勢

and de facto partition that resulted from it

以及所導致的實質分裂

have their reasons

都牽涉到

in many, many different factors.

眾多不同的因素

Central among them are three.

其中最關鍵的因素有三：

First, the intransigence of local leaders

第一，各個當地領袖

to settle for nothing less

貪求自己的最高利益

than their maximum demands.

而不願妥協讓步

Second, an international diplomatic effort

第二，國際外交所做的努力

that was hampered from the beginning

從一開始就因為西方國家支持科索沃獨立

by Western support for Kosovo's independence.

而遭到莫大的阻礙

And third, a lack of imagination

第三，制定足以同時

when it came to designing institutions

保障塞爾維亞人與阿爾巴尼亞

that could have addressed the concerns

的憲法之時

of Serbs and Albanians alike.

缺乏對於未來的想像力

By the same token --

同樣地

and here we have some good news again --

——我們在此也有些好消息

the very fact that there is a high-level,

從 2008 開始至今兩年

well-resourced international presence

科索沃目前

in Kosovo

已有高階層、資源充足的

and the Balkans region more generally

國際勢力介入調停

and the fact that local leaders on both sides

而且巴爾幹地區已經普遍地展現出

have showed relative restraint,

雙方的當地領袖

explains why things have not been worse

擁有相當的自制力

over the past two years since 2008.

讓事態不再繼續惡化

So even in situations

所以，即使是

where outcomes are less than optimal,

情勢不甚樂觀的局面

local leaders

當地領袖

and international leaders have a choice,

與國際領袖仍有抉擇的空間

and they can make a difference for the better.

他們擁有能力打造更好的未來

A cold war

冷戰

is not as good

不會比冷和平

as a cold peace,

來的更好

but a cold peace

但是冷和平

is still better than a hot war.

總比戰爭爆發好得多

Good news is also about learning the right lesson.

好消息也包括學習正確的教訓

So what then distinguishes

是什麼原因造成

the Israeli/Palestinian conflict

以色列人／巴勒斯坦人的衝突

from that in Northern Ireland,

與北愛爾蘭不同的結局？

or the civil war in Sudan

導致蘇丹內戰

from that in Liberia?

與賴比瑞亞不同的結果？

Both successes and failures

成功與失敗

teach us several critically important things

都會給予我們必須

that we need to bear in mind

謹記在心的教訓

if we want the good news to continue.

如果我們希望好消息持續下去。

First, leadership.

第一，領導能力

In the same way in which ethnic conflict and civil war

無論是種族衝突還是內戰

are not natural

都不是天災

but man-made disasters,

而是人禍

their prevention and settlement

阻止與解決紛爭

does not happen automatically either.

不會如同天災結束一般水到渠成

Leadership needs to be capable,

領導者必須有能力

determined and visionary

擁有決心與願景

in its commitment to peace.

致力於締造和平

Leaders need to connect to each other

領導者之間必須合作

and to their followers,

團結彼此的追隨者

and they need to bring them along

以帶領他們

on what is an often arduous journey

踏上艱鉅的旅程

into a peaceful future.

一起走向和平的未來

Second, diplomacy.

第二，外交手腕

Diplomacy needs to be well resourced,

外交必須擁有充足的資源

sustained,

持續不斷努力

and apply the right mix of incentives and pressures

以及施加於領袖與追隨者之上

on leaders and followers.

恰到好處的誘因與壓力

It needs to help them reach an equitable compromise,

外交必須協助他們達成彼此公平的妥協讓步

and it needs to ensure

也必須確保

that a broad coalition

當地、區域

of local, regional

與國際支持者之間

and international supporters

廣大的聯盟

help them implement their agreement.

以協助他們制定協議

Third, institutional design.

第三，憲政設計

Institutional design requires

憲政設計需要

a keen focus on issues,

對於問題的敏銳專注

innovative thinking

創新的思考

and flexible and well-funded implementation.

以及具有彈性與資金充足的實施方法

Conflict parties need to move away

衝突的黨派必須從彼此的最高利益之下

from maximum demands

各讓一步

and towards a compromise

以達成承認彼此需求的

that recognizes each other's needs.

妥協結果

And they need to think

而且他們必須思考

about the substance of their agreement

協議的實質意義

much more than about

而不是

the labels they want to attach to them.

他們想加諸其上的膚淺標籤

Conflict parties also need to be prepared

衝突的黨派也必須在

to return to the negotiation table

協議實行停滯不前的時候

if the agreement implementation stalls.

作好回到談判桌旁的準備

For me personally,

以我個人的意見

the most critical lesson of all is this:

從這些例子得到最重要的教訓是：

Local commitment to peace

當地是否致力於和平

is all-important,

至為重要

but it is often not enough

光是這樣還不夠

to prevent or end violence.

為了阻止或終結暴力衝突

Yet, no amount of diplomacy

再多的外交手段

or institutional design

再多的憲法設計

can make up for local failures

都不足以彌補當地的失敗

and the consequences that they have.

和其後果

Therefore, we must invest

所以，我們必須協助

in developing leaders,

具有潛力的領導者

leaders that have the skills,

以及擁有能力、願景、決心的

vision and determination

領導者

to make peace.

以創造和平

Leaders, in other words,

領導者，換句話說

that people will trust

就是人民願意信任

and that they will want to follow

願意追隨的人

even if that means

即使意味著

making hard choices.

他必須做出艱難的抉擇

A final thought:

最後的想法：

Ending civil wars

終結內戰

is a process that is fraught with dangers,

是一個充滿危險、挫敗

frustrations and setbacks.

與逆境的過程

It often takes a generation to accomplish,

經常需要一整個世代的時間才能達成

but it also requires us, today's generation,

也需要我們今日的世代

to take responsibility

負起責任

and to learn the right lessons

學習正確的教訓

about leadership, diplomacy

瞭解領導能力、外交手腕

and institutional design,

以及憲政設計

so that the child soldiers of today

讓今日戰火摧殘之下的兒童兵

can become the children of tomorrow.

成為明日享有安祥和平的孩子

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

（掌聲）