The little risks you can take to increase your luck | Tina Seelig

翻译人员: Carol Wang 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

I've spent nearly two decades

我花了近二十年的时间，

observing what makes people luckier than others

观察是什么使有些人比他人更幸运，

and trying to help people increase their luck.

并试图帮助人们提升运气。

You see, I teach entrepreneurship,

我教授创业学，

and we all know that most new ventures fail,

大家都知道，多数 新企业均以失败告终，

and innovators and entrepreneurs need all the luck they can get.

创新者和企业家需要 所有可以得到的运气。

So what is luck?

那么，运气是什么呢？

Luck is defined as success or failure apparently caused by chance.

运气，被定义为显然由 偶然原因导致的成功或失败。

Apparently.

‘’显然‘’，

That's the operative word.

是其中的关键词。

It looks like it's chance

看起来运气具有偶然性，

because we rarely see all the levers that come into play to make people lucky.

是因为我们极少看到所有的 因素同时作用而产生好运。

But I've realized, by watching so long,

但通过长期的观察，我发现，

that luck is rarely a lightning strike,

运气很少像闪电那样，

isolated and dramatic.

孤立而戏剧性地降临。

It's much more like the wind,

它更像风，

blowing constantly.

不断地吹，

Sometimes it's calm,

有时静止不动，

and sometimes it blows in gusts,

有时，则阵阵袭来，

and sometimes it comes from directions that you didn't even imagine.

有时，它会从你 根本想不到的方向吹来。

So how do you catch the winds of luck?

那么，如何捕捉幸运之风呢？

It's easy, but it's not obvious.

做起来很简单，却并非 人人知晓其中的奥妙。

So I'm going to share three things with you

所以，我要分享三件 你们可以做到的事情，

that you can do to build a sail to capture the winds of luck.

去创建一面风帆， 以捕捉幸运之风。

The first thing you want to do

你要做的第一件事，

is to change your relationship with yourself.

就是改变你与自己的关系，

Be willing to take small risks that get you out of your comfort zone.

去承担小小的风险， 走出自己的舒适区，

Now, when we're children, we do this all the time.

这是我们儿时常做的事。

We have to do this if we're going to learn how to walk or talk

如果要学走路、学说话、

or ride a bike

学骑自行车、甚至量子力学，

or even quantum mechanics. Right?

就必须走出舒适区。

We need to go from someone one week who doesn't ride a bike

我们必须经历 这周还不会骑自行车呢，

to, next week, someone who does.

下周就会骑的过程。

And this requires us to get out of our comfort zone

这需要我们走出舒适区，

and take some risks.

并承担一些风险。

The problem is, as we get older,

问题是，随着年龄的增长，

we rarely do this.

我们就很少这样做了。

We sort of lock down the sense of who we are

我们变得喜欢固步自封，

and don't stretch anymore.

不再拓展自己的能力。

Now, with my students,

对于我的学生，

I spend a lot of time giving them encouragement

我花了很多时间鼓励他们

to get out of their comfort zone and take some risks.

走出舒适区，并承担一些风险。

How do I do this?

我怎么做的呢？

Well, I start out by having them fill out a risk-o-meter.

我先让他们填写风险承受表，

Now, it's basically a fun thing we developed in our class

这其实就是我们在课堂 开展的一项有趣的活动，

where they map out what risks they're willing to take.

让他们标出愿意承担的风险。

And it becomes clear very quickly to them

他们很快就会明白，

that risk-taking is not binary.

承担风险可不是非零即一那么简单，

There are intellectual risks and physical risks and financial risks

有智力风险、物理风险、金融风险、

and emotional risks and social risks and ethical risks and political risks.

情感风险、社会风险、 道德风险和政治风险。

And once they do this, they compare their risk profiles with others,

一旦确定自己肯承担的风险后， 他们会将风险表与他人的比较，

and they quickly realize that they're all really different.

然后很快就意识到， 大家的风险表竟然截然不同。

I then encourage them to stretch,

然后我鼓励他们挑战一下，

to take some risks that get them out of their comfort zone.

承担一些风险， 使自己走出舒适区。

For example, I might ask them to do an intellectual risk

例如，我可能会要求他们 冒一下智力风险，

and try to tackle a problem they haven't tried before;

设法解决一个他们以前 从没尝试过的问题；

or a social risk, talking to someone sitting next to them on the train;

或社会风险，在火车上 与邻座的旅客交谈；

or an emotional risk,

或者是情绪上的风险，

maybe telling someone they really care about how they feel.

比如告诉真正在乎的人 自己对他们的感受。

I do this myself all the time.

我自己一直这样做。

About a dozen years ago, I was on an airplane,

大约 12 年前，我在

early, early morning flight on my way to Ecuador.

很早的一班 去往厄瓜多尔的飞机上。

And normally, I would just put on my headphones

通常情况下，我会戴上耳机，

and go to sleep, wake up, do some work,

先睡一觉，睡醒再工作一会儿，

but I decided to take a little risk,

但我决定冒点儿风险，

and I started a conversation with the man sitting next to me.

我开始和旁边的人聊天。

我介绍了自己，随后 得知他是一个出版商。

I introduced myself, and I learned that he was a publisher.

Interesting.

还真是巧啊。

由此我们有了一段精彩的谈话，

We ended up having a fascinating conversation.

我了解到了出版业的未来。

I learned all about the future of the publishing industry.

因此，当飞行旅程 进行到大约四分之三时，

So about three quarters of the way through the flight,

I decided to take another risk,

我决定再冒一次险，

and I opened up my laptop and I shared with him a book proposal

我打开笔记本电脑，和他分享 我整理的一本书的提案，

I put together for something I was doing in my class.

这些东西是我上课使用的。

And he was very polite, he read it,

他很有礼貌，读完以后，

and he said, "You know what, Tina, this isn't right for us,

他说， “知道吗，蒂娜， 我们这样做不太合适，

but thank you so much for sharing."

但是，很感谢你的分享”。

It's OK. That risk didn't work out.

这次冒险没有成功，不过没关系。

I shut my laptop.

我关上了笔记本电脑。

At the end of the flight, we exchanged contact information.

在飞行结束时, 我们互留了联系方式。

A couple of months later, I reached out to him,

几个月后，我又联系他，

and I said, "Mark, would you like to come to my class?

说："马克，你愿意来我的课堂吗？

I'm doing a project on reinventing the book,

我在做一个有关‘重塑书本’的项目，

the future of publishing."

有关出版业的未来。”

And he said, "Great. I'd love to come."

他说："好极了。我很乐意去。”

So he came to my class. We had a great experience.

所以他来到我的课堂， 我们相处得非常愉快。

A few months later, I wrote to him again.

几个月后，我又写信给他，

This time, I sent him a bunch of video clips

这次，我发给他一组视频剪辑，

from another project my students had done.

这些剪辑来自学生们 做的另一个项目。

He was so intrigued

学生们做的项目中，

by one of the projects the students had done,

有一个引起了他极大的兴趣，

he thought there might be a book in it,

他认为可以出一本相关的书，

and he wanted to meet those students.

而且，他想面见那些学生。

I have to tell you, I was a little bit hurt.

实话说，我有点小小的受伤。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I mean, he wanted to do a book with my students and not with me,

我是说，他想和我的学生们 出版一本书，而不是和我，

but OK, it's all right.

不过，没啥大不了。

So I invited him to come down, and he and his colleagues came to Stanford

因此我邀请他过来， 他和同事们来到斯坦福，

and met with the students, and afterwards, we had lunch together.

和同学们见了面， 随后我们共进了午餐。

And one of his editors said to me,

他的一位编辑问我，

"Hey, have you ever considered writing a book?"

“嘿，你有没有想过要写一本书啊？”

I said, "Funny you should ask."

我说，“你问得真巧，”

And I pulled out the exact same proposal

于是我拿出一本书的提案给他，

that I had showed his boss a year earlier.

就是一年前给他老板看的那本。

Within two weeks, I had a contract,

两周内，我们就签了合同，

and within two years, the book had sold over a million copies around the world.

两年内，这本书在全球 销售了超过一百万本。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now, you might say,

现在，你可能会说，

"Oh, you're so lucky."

“噢，你太幸运了。”

But of course I was lucky,

当然，我是幸运的呀，

but that luck resulted from a series of small risks I took,

但幸运来自 我承担的一系列小风险，

starting with saying hello.

而这一切，都是从打招呼开始的。

And anyone can do this,

谁都能做到这一点，

no matter where you are in your life,

无论你在人生的哪个阶段，

no matter where you are in the world --

无论你身在何处，

even if you think you're the most unlucky person,

即使你认为自己是最倒霉的人，

you can do this by taking little risks that get you out of your comfort zone.

也可以通过承担小风险， 把自己带出舒适区，

You start building a sail to capture luck.

开始打造那一叶捕捉好运的帆。

The second thing you want to do

第二件要做的事情，

is to change your relationship with other people.

就是改善与他人的关系。

You need to understand that everyone who helps you on your journey

要明白，每个 在旅途中帮助过你的人，

is playing a huge role in getting you to your goals.

在你实现目标的过程中， 都起了非常重要作用。

And if you don't show appreciation,

若你没有心怀感激之情，

not only are you not closing the loop,

这不仅仅是你没与 他们互动交流的问题，

but you're missing an opportunity.

而是让你错过了一次机会。

When someone does something for you,

当有人为你做某件事时，

they're taking that time

他们把本可以花在

that they could be spending on themselves or someone else,

自己或别人身上的时间 花在了你身上，

and you need to acknowledge what they're doing.

你要对他们的行为表示感谢。

Now, I run three fellowship programs at Stanford,

目前，我管理着斯坦福的 三个奖学金项目，

and they are very competitive to get into,

这三个项目的竞争都很激烈，

and when I send out the letters to those students who don't get in,

当我寄信给那些 没有入围的学生时，

I always know there are going to be people who are disappointed.

我知道有人会很失望。

Some of the people who are disappointed send me notes, complaining.

有些失望的人给我写信，抱怨。

Some of them send notes

有的人写信问我，

自己该如何做， 才能让自己下次更成功？

saying what could I do to make myself more successful next time around?

And every once in a while,

时不时地，

someone sends me a note thanking me for the opportunity.

也有人写信来， 感谢我给他们的机会。

This happened about seven years ago.

有一件大概七年前发生的事，

A young man named Brian sent me a beautiful note saying,

一个叫布莱恩的年轻人给 我寄来一封感人的信，他说：

"I know I've been rejected from this program twice,

“我已经被该项目拒绝了两次，

but I want to thank you for the opportunity.

但我很想感谢您给的机会，

I learned so much through the process of applying."

在申请奖学金的过程中， 我学到了很多东西。”

I was so taken by the graciousness of his message

他信中的感恩话语 极大地触动了我，

that I invited him to come and meet me.

因此，我邀请他来见我。

And we spent some time chatting and cooked up an idea

我们一起聊了一会儿，

for an independent study project together.

共同想出了一个 "自主学习项目"的主意。

He was on the football team at Stanford,

他当时是斯坦福的足球队成员，

and he decided to do a project on looking at leadership in that context.

他决定做一个这方面 关于领导力的项目。

We got to know each other incredibly well through that quarter,

那半个学期里， 我们很好地了解了彼此，

and he took the project that he started working on

他拿到了自己着手准备的

in the independent study

“自主学习项目"，

and turned it, ultimately, into a company called Play for Tomorrow,

最终，把它变成了一个 叫做 "为明天而战" 的公司，

where he teaches kids from disadvantaged backgrounds

在那里，他教那些家庭 状况不佳的孩子们，

how to, essentially, craft the lives they dream to live.

如何从根本上精心规划 他们梦想的生活。

Now, the important thing about this story

这个故事的重点是，

is that we both ended up catching the winds of luck

我俩都抓住了幸运之风，

as a result of his thank-you note.

一切都源于他的感谢信，

But it was the winds that we didn't expect in the first place.

这是我们俩起初根本预料不到的。

Over the course of the last couple of years,

在过去的几年里，

I've come up with some tactics for my own life

我为自己的生活制定了一些策略，

to help me really foster appreciation.

来帮助我真正地培养感激之心。

My favorite is that at the end of every single day,

我最喜欢在每天晚上，

I look at my calendar and I review all the people I met with,

看着日历，回想所有 我（今天）见过的人，

and I send thank-you notes to every single person.

并给每个人发一封感谢信、

It only takes a few minutes,

只需要几分钟的时间，

but at the end of every day,

但在每一天的结束时，

I feel incredibly grateful and appreciative,

我都感到特别感恩和感激，

and I promise you it has increased my luck.

我向各位担保， 这个过程增加了我的好运。

So first, you need to take some risks and get out of your comfort zone.

因此，首先你需要冒一下险， 走出你的舒适区。

Second, you need to show appreciation.

其次，你需要心怀感激。

And third, you want to change your relationship with ideas.

第三，你需要改变与想法的关系。

Most people look at new ideas that come there way and they judge them.

大多数的人会面对新想法， 并对其进行评判，

"That's a great idea" or "That's a terrible idea."

"这是一个很好的主意 " 或 "这个想法很糟糕"。

But it's actually much more nuanced.

但这个过程实际上很微妙。

Ideas are neither good or bad.

主意并没有好坏之分。

And in fact, the seeds of terrible ideas are often something truly remarkable.

事实上，糟糕的想法产生的结果 往往才是真正了不起的东西。

One of my favorite exercises in my classes on creativity

在课堂上，我最喜欢的 关于创新的练习之一，

is to help students foster an attitude of looking at terrible ideas

是帮助学生培养一种 以可能性的视角

through the lens of possibilities.

来看待糟糕想法的态度。

So I give them a challenge:

所以，我给了他们一个挑战：

to create an idea for a brand new restaurant.

为一家全新的餐厅想点子。

They have to come up with the best ideas for a new restaurant

他们必须为新餐馆想出金点子

and the worst ideas for a new restaurant.

和最坏的点子。

So the best ideas are things like a restaurant on a mountaintop

金点子，如欣赏美丽日落的

with a beautiful sunset,

山顶餐厅，

or a restaurant on a boat with a gorgeous view.

或能观赏靓丽景色的船上餐厅；

And the terrible ideas are things like a restaurant in a garbage dump,

糟糕的点子，如建在 垃圾堆里的餐馆，

or a restaurant with terrible service that's really dirty,

或一家服务差、环境脏的餐馆，

or a restaurant that serves cockroach sushi.

或是一家供应蟑螂寿司的餐馆。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So they hand all the ideas to me,

他们把所有的点子交给我，

I read the great ideas out loud,

我大声读出那些金点子，

and then I rip them up and throw them away.

然后把它们撕毁、扔掉；

I then take the horrible ideas and redistribute them.

接下来，我把糟糕的 点子重新分配给他们。

Each team now has an idea that another team thought was horrible,

现在，每个队都有一个 另一队认为很糟糕的点子，

and their challenge is to turn it into something brilliant.

他们的挑战就是 让这些点子化腐朽为神奇。

Here's what happens.

接下来，奇妙的事情发生了：

Within about 10 seconds, someone says, "This is a fabulous idea."

在大约10秒内，有人说， "这真是个绝妙的主意。"

And they have about three minutes before they pitch the idea to the class.

他们约有三分钟的准备时间， 然后向全班兜售他们的点子。

So the restaurant in the garbage dump? What does that turn into?

那个垃圾堆里的餐馆会变成什么呢？

Well, they collect all the extra food from Michelin star restaurants

他们从米其林星级餐厅收集那些

将被白白扔掉的多余食物，

that was going to get thrown out,

and they have another restaurant at a much lower price,

他们还有另一家价格更低的餐馆，

供应的都是剩饭。

with all the leftovers.

Pretty cool?

棒不棒？

Or the restaurant that's dirty with terrible service?

那服务不好、环境肮脏的餐厅呢？

Well, that turns into a restaurant that's a training ground

它变成了一家餐厅训练场，

for future restauranteurs to figure out how to avoid all the pitfalls.

供未来餐厅老板找出 如何避免所有的隐患。

And the restaurant with cockroach sushi?

卖蟑螂寿司的餐厅呢？

It turns into a sushi bar

它变成了一个寿司酒吧，

with all sorts of really interesting and exotic ingredients.

里面融入了各种真正 有趣而富有异国情调的元素。

If you look around at the companies,

如果你环顾四周的公司，

the ventures that are really innovative around you,

你周围那些真正创新的企业，

the ones that we now take for granted that have changed our life,

那些我们坦然接受的 改变我们生活的公司和企业，

well, you know what?

噢，你知道吗？

They all started out as crazy ideas.

他们都是从疯狂的想法开始的。

They started ideas that when they pitched to other people,

在向其他人推销时， 他们就开始实施想法了，

most people said, "That's crazy, it will never work."

多数人说"这太离谱了, 根本行不通的。”

So, yes, sometimes people were born into terrible circumstances,

是的，有时人们 出生在糟糕的环境中，

and sometimes, luck is a lightning bolt

有时，运气像一道闪电，

that hits us with something wonderful or something terrible.

用奇妙或可怕的东西击中我们。

But the winds of luck are always there,

但幸运之风总是在那里，

and if you're willing to take some risks,

如果你愿意承担一些风险，

if you're willing to really go out and show appreciation

如果你愿意真正走出去， 并心怀感激之情，

and willing to really look at ideas, even if they're crazy,

愿意真正去正视各种想法， 即使这些想法很疯狂，

through the lens of possibilities,

通过可能性的视角，

you can build a bigger and bigger sail to catch the winds of luck.

你仍然可以打造一面更大的帆， 去捕捉幸运之风。

Thank you.

谢谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）