Dilip Ratha: The hidden force in global economics: sending money home

95,350 views ・ 2014-10-09

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翻译人员: Rong Han 校对人员: Carlyle Shaw
00:12
I live in Washington, D.C.,
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我住在华盛顿特区
00:17
but I grew up in Sindhekela, a village in Orissa, in India.
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但我是在新河克拉, 印度奥里萨邦的一个小村庄长大。
00:24
My father was a government worker.
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我父亲是个政府雇员,
00:28
My mother could not read or write, but she
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我母亲不会读书写字,
00:32
would say to me, "A king is worshipped only in his
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但她跟我说:“国王只有 在自己的王国里才被膜拜,
00:38
own kingdom. A poet is respected everywhere."
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而诗人走到哪儿都受到尊敬。”
00:44
So I wanted to be a poet when I grew up.
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所以我就想长大后成为一名诗人。
00:47
But I almost didn't go to college
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但是我差点没上成大学,
00:52
until an aunt offered financial help.
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直到一位姨妈出钱帮我。
00:56
I went to study in Sambalpur,
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我去了萨姆巴尔普尔,
00:58
the largest town in the region,
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当地最大的城镇读书。
01:02
where, already in college, I saw a television for the first time.
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在那儿上大学的时候,
我才第一次看到电视。
01:09
I had dreams of going to the United States
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那时我梦想去美国接受高等教育。
01:12
for higher studies.
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01:14
When the opportunity came,
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后来机会来了,
01:16
I crossed two oceans, with borrowed money
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我借钱买了机票,横跨两个大洋,
01:19
for airfare and only a $20 bill in my pocket.
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兜里装了二十元美金就来了。
01:25
In the U.S., I worked in a research center,
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在美国,我一边在一家研究中心兼职,
01:30
part-time, while taking graduate classes in economics.
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一边上经济学的研究生课程。
01:34
And with the little I earned, I would
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虽然挣得不多,
我还是一边供自己上学,
01:40
finance myself and then I would send
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一边寄钱回家给我父亲和我兄弟。
01:42
money home to my brother and my father.
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01:46
My story is not unique.
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我这样的绝不是唯一的。
01:50
There are millions of people who migrate each year.
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每年有成百上千万的人移民。
01:54
With the help of the family, they cross oceans,
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通过家人的帮助,他们跨越大洋,
01:58
they cross deserts, they cross rivers, they cross mountains.
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沙漠,河流,或者山脉。
02:05
They risk their lives to realize a dream,
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他们冒着生命危险去实现一个梦想。
02:09
and that dream is as simple as having a
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他们的梦想很简单,就是
02:12
decent job somewhere so they can send money home
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能有一份不错的工作, 让他们能寄钱回家,
02:15
and help the family,
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帮助他们的家人,
02:17
which has helped them before.
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那些曾帮助过他们的人。
02:21
There are 232 million international migrants in the world.
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世界上有两亿三千二百万国际移民。
02:27
These are people who live in a country
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他们生活在一个
02:28
other than their country of birth.
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不同于他们出生地的国度。
02:31
If there was a country made up of
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如果有一个国家
02:32
only international migrants,
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全部由国际移民组成,
02:34
that would be larger, in population,
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它的人口将超过巴西,
02:36
than Brazil.
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02:37
That would be larger, in its size
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它的经济实力将超过法国。
02:39
of the economy, than France.
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02:43
Some 180 million of them, from poor countries,
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其中一亿八千万的移民来自贫穷的国家,
02:47
send money home regularly.
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他们按时寄钱回家。
02:50
Those sums of money are called remittances.
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这些钱叫做移民汇款。
02:55
Here is a fact that might surprise you:
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这样一个事实可能会让你大吃一惊:
02:59
413 billion dollars, 413 billion dollars
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4310亿美元,
03:04
was the amount of remittances sent last year
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去年一共有4310亿美元
03:07
by migrants to developing countries.
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由移民们寄到发展中国家。
03:10
Migrants from developing countries,
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来自发展中国家的移民,
03:11
money sent to developing countries —
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寄到发展中国家的钱,
03:13
413 billion dollars.
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4310亿美元。
03:16
That's a remarkable number because
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这个数字相当惊人,
03:18
that is three times the size of
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它等于所有发展资助资金总和的三倍。
03:19
the total of development aid money.
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03:23
And yet, you and I,
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但是,你,我,
03:27
my colleagues in Washington,
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我在华盛顿的同事们,
03:28
we endlessly debate and
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我们不停地争辩,
03:30
discuss about development aid,
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讨论发展资助,
03:33
while we ignore remittances as small change.
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却把移民汇款当作小钱忽略了。
03:37
True, people send 200 dollars per month,
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确实,人们平均每月寄两百美元。
03:40
on average. But, repeated month after month,
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但是,月复一月,
03:44
by millions of people,
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成百上千万的人在寄,
03:46
these sums of money add up to rivers of foreign currency.
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这些钱汇聚成一条条外币形成的河流。
03:50
So India, last year, received 72 billion dollars, larger than
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印度去年收到了720亿美元,
03:55
its IT exports.
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超过它的IT出口额。
03:58
In Egypt remittances are three times
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埃及收到的移民汇款达到
04:01
the size of revenues from the Suez Canal.
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苏伊士运河上贸易额的三倍。
04:04
In Tajikistan, remittances are 42 percent of GDP.
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塔吉克斯坦, 移民汇款占GDP的42%。
04:08
And in poorer countries, smaller countries, fragile countries,
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在更穷,更小,或者正发生冲突的国家,
04:11
conflict-afflicted countries, remittances are a lifeline,
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移民汇款就如同救命稻草,
04:16
as in Somalia or in Haiti.
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比如说在索马里或海蒂。
04:20
No wonder these flows have huge
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难怪这些资金流
04:22
impacts on economies and on poor people.
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会对经济和贫困人口带来巨大的影响。
04:26
Remittances, unlike private investment money,
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不同于私人资助基金,
04:30
they don't flow back at the first
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移民汇款不会
04:33
sign of trouble in the country.
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在国家一出现问题的时候就回流。
04:35
They actually act like an insurance.
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它们更像保险金。
04:38
When the family is in trouble,
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当家人遇到麻烦,
04:40
facing hardship, facing hard times,
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碰到问题,遇到困难的时候,
04:43
remittances increase, they act like an insurance.
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它会增加,就像保险金一样,
04:45
Migrants send more money then.
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移民们会寄更多的钱回去。
04:48
Unlike development aid money,
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它们也不像发展资助基金,
04:49
that must go through official agencies,
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那些必须经过正式的机构,
04:52
through governments, remittances
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通过政府。
而移民汇款直接到达穷人手中,
04:55
directly reach the poor,
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04:56
reach the family,
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到达家人手中,
04:58
and often with business advice.
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通常还附带着商业建议。
05:00
So in Nepal, the share of poor
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在尼泊尔,
05:04
people was 42 percent in 1995,
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1995年时穷人占人口总数的42%。
05:06
the share of poor people in the population.
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05:09
By 2005, a decade later, at a
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十年之后,2005年时,
05:12
time of political crisis, economic crisis,
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当时尼泊尔正遇上政治危机,经济危机,
05:15
the share of poor people went down to 31 percent.
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可是穷人的比例却降到了31%。
05:19
That decline in poverty, most of it,
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贫困人口的减少,大部分,
05:23
about half of it, is believed to be
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大约一半,是依靠
05:25
because of remittances from India,
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从印度,另一个穷国,
05:27
another poor country.
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寄来的移民汇款 。
05:29
In El Salvador, the school dropout
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在萨尔瓦多,
儿童辍学率
05:34
rate among children is lower
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在接受移民汇款的家庭中就比较低。
05:37
in families that receive remittances.
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05:39
In Mexico and Sri Lanka,
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在墨西哥和斯里兰卡
05:41
the birth weight of children is higher
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儿童的出生体重
在接受移民汇款的家庭中较高。
05:45
among families that receive remittances.
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05:50
Remittances are dollars wrapped with care.
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移民汇款是被爱包裹的钱财。
05:54
Migrants send money home for food,
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移民们寄钱回去买食物,
05:57
for buying necessities, for building houses,
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买必需品,建房子,
05:59
for funding education, for funding
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用于教育,老年人的医疗,
06:01
healthcare for the elderly, for business
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06:04
investments for friends and family.
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还有家人和朋友的商业投资。
06:06
Migrants send even more money home
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遇到特殊情况, 移民们还会寄更多的钱,
06:09
for special occasions like a surgery
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比如手术或婚礼。
06:12
or a wedding. And migrants also send
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也许更多的时候,
06:15
money, perhaps far too many times,
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遇上突如其来的葬礼,
06:18
for unexpected funerals that
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他们因为无法参加而寄钱回去。
06:21
they cannot attend.
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06:25
Much as these flows do all that good,
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虽然这些资金流动有这么多好处,
06:27
there are barriers to these
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06:29
flows of remittances, these
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06:30
400 billion dollars of remittances.
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阻碍这四千亿美元的流动。
06:33
Foremost among them is
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最大的障碍是
06:35
the exorbitant cost of sending money home.
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寄钱回家的高额费用。
06:39
Money transfer companies structure
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现金传递公司收费的方式
06:41
their fees to milk the poor.
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就是在压榨穷人。
06:45
They will say, "Up to 500 dollars
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他们会说,五百美元以下,
06:48
if you want to send, we will charge you
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我们固定收取30元的手续费。
06:50
30 dollars fixed."
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06:52
If you are poor and if you have only 200 dollars to send,
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如果你很穷,只能寄两百块钱,
06:55
you have to pay that $30 fee.
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你也得交30元的手续费。
06:58
The global average cost of sending
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寄钱的全球平均花费是8%。
07:00
money is eight percent.
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07:03
That means you send 100 dollars,
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也就是说你寄100块钱,
07:04
the family on the other side receives only
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到了另一边你的家人只能收到
07:06
92 dollars.
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92块。
07:08
To send money to Africa,
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寄钱到非洲的花费就更高:
07:10
the cost is even higher:
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07:11
12 percent.
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12%。
07:12
To send money within Africa,
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在非洲内部寄钱,
07:14
the cost is even higher:
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费用还要更高:
07:16
over 20 percent.
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超过20%,
07:17
For example, sending money from Benin to Nigeria.
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比如从贝宁寄钱到尼日利亚。
07:21
And then there is the case of Venezuela, where,
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而在委内瑞拉,
07:25
because of exchange controls,
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因为货币兑换受到控制,
07:27
you send 100 dollars and you
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如果你寄了100块钱,
07:29
are lucky if the family on the other side
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你的家人在另一边如果
07:31
receives even 10 dollars.
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能拿到10块钱就不错了。
07:34
Of course, nobody sends money to Venezuela
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当然了,没人通过正式渠道往
07:37
through the official channel.
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委内瑞拉寄钱。
07:39
It all goes in suitcases.
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都是装在行李箱里带。
07:41
Whereever costs are high,
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收费高的地方,
07:43
money goes underground.
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钱都从地下走了。
07:45
And what is worse,
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更糟的是,
07:47
many developing countries actually
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很多发展中国家实际上
07:50
have a blanket ban on sending money
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还全面禁止往国外寄钱。
07:52
out of the country.
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07:54
Many rich nations also have a
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很多富裕国也全面禁止
07:56
blanket ban on sending money to specific countries.
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向某些国家寄钱。
08:01
So, is it that there are no options,
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那是不是没有办法,
08:03
no better options, cheaper options, to send money?
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更好,更便宜的办法寄钱了呢?
08:06
There are.
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还是有的。
08:07
M-Pesa in Kenya enables people to send money
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通过肯尼亚的M-Pesa寄钱,
手续费是固定的每笔
08:10
and receive money at a fixed cost of only
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08:13
60 cents per transaction.
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60美分。
08:16
U.S. Fed started a program with Mexico
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美国联邦政府和墨西哥之间
启动了一个项目,
08:19
to enable money service businesses
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使得汇款公司往墨西哥寄钱时
08:21
to send money to Mexico
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08:22
for a fixed cost of only 67 cents per transaction.
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只需要每笔67美分的手续费。
08:27
And yet, these faster, cheaper, better options
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但是这些更快,更便宜,更好的办法,
08:30
can't be applied internationally
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还不能在国际上通用,
08:33
because of the fear of money laundering,
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因为担心被人利用来洗钱。
08:36
even though there is little data
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虽然没有什么数据
08:39
to support any connection, any significant
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证明这两者之间有什么联系,
08:42
connection between money laundering
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就是说洗钱和小额的移民汇款之间
08:43
and these small remittance transactions.
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有什么联系。
08:49
Many international banks now
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很多跨国银行
08:50
are wary of hosting bank accounts
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现在害怕拥有汇款公司的账户,
08:53
of money service businesses, especially
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特别是那些业务涉及到
08:56
those serving Somalia.
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索马里的公司。
08:59
Somalia, a country where the
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索马里人均年收入
09:02
per capita income is only 250 dollars per year.
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才250美元。
09:09
Monthly remittances, on average, to Somalia
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按月寄往索马里的移民汇款
09:11
is larger than that amount.
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平均都大于这个数。
09:14
Remittances are the lifeblood of Somalia.
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移民汇款成了索马里的血脉。
09:16
And yet, this is an example of
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索马里的情况就是个典型的例子,
09:20
the right hand giving a lot of aid,
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一方面右手给予很多援助,
09:22
while the left hand is cutting the lifeblood
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另一方面左手又通过各种条规
09:26
to that economy, through regulations.
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切断它的经济血脉。
09:32
Then there is the case of poor people from villages, like me.
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像我这样来自乡村的穷人 还会遇到另一个问题。
09:36
In the villages, the only place where you can
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在乡村里,唯一能收到汇款的地方
09:38
get money is through the post office.
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是邮局。
09:41
Most of the governments in the world
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世界上多数国家的政府
09:43
have allowed their post offices to have
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都允许邮局和某个汇款公司之间
09:46
exclusive partnerships with money transfer companies.
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建立唯一的合作关系。
09:49
So, if I have to send money to my
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所以如果我要寄钱给乡下的父亲,
09:52
father in the village, I must send money
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2683
我就必须得去
09:55
through that particular money transfer company,
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特定的那一家汇款公司寄。
09:57
even if the cost is high.
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即使它收费较高,
09:59
I cannot go to a cheaper option.
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4312
我也没有其它的选择。
10:03
This has to go.
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2009
这种情况必须要改变。
10:05
So, what can international organizations and
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2251
那么,国际组织和社会企业家们
10:07
social entrepreneurs do to reduce the cost
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2017
可以做些什么来降低
10:09
of sending money home?
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寄钱回家的费用呢?
10:11
First, relax regulations on small remittances under 1,000 dollars.
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首先,放宽关于一千美元以下的 小额移民汇款的法规,
10:17
Governments should recognize that
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政府应该意识到,
10:19
small remittances are not money laundering.
202
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小额汇款不是洗钱。
10:24
Second, governments should abolish exclusive partnerships
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4439
第二,政府应该禁止邮局和某个汇款公司
10:28
between their post office and the money transfer company.
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建立唯一的合作关系。
10:31
For that matter, between the post office
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最好是禁止邮局
10:33
and any national banking system that
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2027
和任何全国性的银行系统之间
10:35
has a large network that serves the poor.
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建立这种关系,
10:38
In fact, they should promote competition,
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实际上,他们应该鼓励竞争,
10:41
open up the partnership so that
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开放合作伙伴,
10:44
we will bring down costs like we did,
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3149
这样就可以降低费用,
10:47
like they did, in the telecommunications industry.
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就像电话业那样。
10:51
You have seen what has happened there.
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你们都知道电话业的情况了。
10:54
Third, large nonprofit philanthropic organizations
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4803
第三,大型非营利性组织
10:59
should create a remittance platform
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应该在非营利的基础上创建
11:01
on a nonprofit basis.
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一个移民汇款平台。
11:02
They should create a nonprofit
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他们应该创建一个非营利的
11:03
remittance platform to serve the money transfer
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移民汇款平台来服务于汇款公司,
11:06
companies so that they can send money at a low cost,
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3729
使他们能降低寄钱的费用,
11:09
while complying with all the complex
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同时还能不违反世界各地
11:12
regulations all over the world.
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各种复杂的条规。
11:16
The development community should
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发展中的社区应该朝着
11:18
set a goal of reducing remittance costs
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将移民汇款费率从现在的8%降到1%
11:20
to one percent from the current eight percent.
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的目标努力。
11:23
If we reduce costs to one percent,
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如果我们能把费用降到1%,
11:25
that would release a saving of 30 billion dollars per year.
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将每年省下300亿美元。
11:30
Thirty billion dollars, that's larger than the entire
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690193
4401
比每年给非洲的全部
11:34
bilateral aid budget going to Africa per year.
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3149
双边资助预算还多,
11:37
That is larger than, or almost similar to,
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3016
而且也比美国政府的全部援助预算
11:40
the total aid budget of the United States government,
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还多,或着几乎相当。
11:43
the largest donor on the planet.
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这可是全球最大的捐助国。
11:46
Actually, the savings would be larger
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1625
实际上,省下的还不止
11:48
than that 30 billion because remittance channels
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那三百亿,因为移民汇款渠道
11:50
are also used for aid, trade and investment purposes.
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还可以用于救援,贸易和投资。
11:55
Another major impediment to the
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2471
另一个严重阻碍移民汇款
11:58
flow of remittances reaching the family
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到达家人手中的因素,
12:00
is the large and exorbitant
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2565
是高额的非法招工费。
12:03
and illegal cost of recruitment,
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723229
2978
12:06
fees that migrants pay, migrant workers
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2938
这些费是移民工人
12:09
pay to laborers who found them the job.
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3264
付给给他们找到工作的人的。
12:12
I was in Dubai a few years ago.
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3606
几年前我去过迪拜
12:16
I visited a camp for workers.
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2275
我去了一个劳工的营地。
12:18
It was 8 in the evening, dark, hot, humid.
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5313
那是晚上8点,又黑又湿又热,
12:23
Workers were coming back from
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743603
1812
工人们刚刚结束了
12:25
their grueling day of work,
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745415
2471
一天又苦又累的工作回来。
12:27
and I struck a conversation
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1784
我和一个孟加拉来的
12:29
with a Bangladeshi construction worker.
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2860
建筑工人聊了起来。
12:32
He was preoccupied that he is sending
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2909
他一心就想着寄钱回家,
12:35
money home, he has been
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755439
1517
12:36
sending money home for a few months now,
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2910
已经寄了几个月了,
12:39
and the money is mostly going
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1503
可是钱基本上都给了
12:41
to the recruitment agent, to the labor agent
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2652
劳务介绍人,
12:44
who found him that job.
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1643
那个给他找到这份工作的人。
12:45
And in my mind, I could picture
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3744
我可以想象得到,
12:49
the wife waiting for
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769408
1181
他的妻子
12:50
the monthly remittance.
255
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1726
每月盼着这笔钱。
12:52
The remittance arrives.
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772315
1765
钱汇到了,
12:54
She takes the money and hands
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774080
1729
她取了钱,转手就得
12:55
it over to the recruitment agent,
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3570
交给招工的人,
12:59
while the children are looking on.
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2996
而孩子们只能眼巴巴的看着。
13:02
This has to stop.
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3330
不能再这样下去了。
13:05
It is not only construction workers from Bangladesh,
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4816
这不仅仅发生在孟加拉的建筑工人身上,
13:10
it is all the workers. There are millions of migrant
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1706
而是发生在所有工人身上,
13:12
workers who suffer from this problem.
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发生在成百上千万的移民工身上。
13:15
A construction worker from Bangladesh,
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1677
孟加拉的建筑工
13:16
on an average, pays about 4,000 dollars in recruitment fees
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796855
3795
平均每人要付四千美元的找工费,
13:20
for a job that gives him only 2,000 dollars per year in income.
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5379
而这份工作每年只挣两千美元。
13:26
That means that for the two years or three years
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2730
也就是说,有两到三年的时间,
13:28
of his life, he is basically sending money
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808759
3493
他寄回去的钱
13:32
to pay for the recruitment fees.
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1284
都只是在付招工费,
13:33
The family doesn't get to see any of it.
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813536
3513
他的家人什么都拿不到。
13:37
It is not only Dubai, it is the dark
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3771
也不仅仅发生在迪拜,
13:40
underbelly of every major city in the world.
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2574
而是发生在全世界 每个大城市的阴暗角落里。
13:43
It is not only Bangladeshi construction workers,
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2498
不光是孟加拉的建筑工人
13:45
it is workers from all over the world.
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2155
而是全世界的工人们。
13:48
It is not only men.
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1938
也不仅仅发生在男工身上,
13:49
Women are especially vulnerable to
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1885
女工更经常成为
13:51
recruitment malpractices.
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3538
非法招工的受害者。
13:55
One of the most exciting and newest
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835408
4594
在移民汇款领域,
14:00
thing happening in the area of remittances
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840002
2418
最新,最令人兴奋的事
14:02
is how to mobilize, through innovation,
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3041
是创造移民们存钱和捐钱的新方式。
14:05
diaspora saving and diaspora giving.
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845461
3191
14:08
Migrants send money home,
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1883
移民们不仅寄钱回家,
14:10
but they also save a large amount of
283
850535
1633
他们自己也存很多钱。
14:12
money where they live.
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852168
2445
14:14
Annually, migrant savings are estimated
285
854613
2635
事实上,移民存款据估计每年
14:17
to be 500 billion dollars.
286
857248
4101
达五千亿美元。
14:21
Most of that money is parked in
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2228
大部分的钱都存在银行里,
14:23
bank deposits that give you zero percent interest rate.
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3725
挣不到半点利息。
14:27
If a country were to come and offer a three percent
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3092
如果哪个国家能为移民提供
14:30
or four percent interest rate, and then say
290
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2511
百分之三到四的利息,
14:32
that the money would be used for building schools,
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2804
而且说把这些钱用来
14:35
roads, airports, train systems
292
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3135
在他们出生的国家
修建学校,公路,机场,铁路,
14:38
in the country of origin, a lot
293
878844
1812
14:40
of migrants would be interested in
294
880656
1937
很多移民会拿钱出来的。
14:42
parting with their money because
295
882593
2390
因为对他们来说
14:44
it's not only financial gains that
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1795
不仅得到经济利益,
14:46
give them an opportunity
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1289
而且也使他们有机会
14:48
to stay engaged with their country's development.
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5472
参与他们自己国家的发展。
14:53
Remittance channels can be used
299
893539
1941
可以通过移民汇款的渠道,
14:55
to sell these bonds to migrants
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4571
把这些债券卖给移民,
15:00
because when they come
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900051
1351
因为他们
15:01
on a monthly basis to send remittances,
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1583
每个月来寄钱的时候,
15:02
that's when you can actually sell it to them.
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2581
就正好是可以向他们出售债券的时候。
15:05
You can also do the same
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905566
973
也可以用同样的方法
15:06
for mobilizing diaspora giving.
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2781
来刺激移民们捐钱。
15:09
I would love to invest in a
306
909320
2838
我会非常希望可以为
15:12
bullet train system in India
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912158
2380
在印度修建高速铁路系统投资。
15:14
and I would love to contribute to efforts
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2902
我也会非常愿意为
15:17
to fight malaria in my village.
309
917440
3916
在我们村防治疟疾投资。
15:21
Remittances are a great way of
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921356
3989
利用移民汇款可以实现
15:25
sharing prosperity between places
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3771
目的性的资源交流,
15:29
in a targeted way that benefits
312
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2296
使最需要的人收益。
15:31
those who need them most.
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931412
2936
15:34
Remittances empower people.
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934348
3158
移民汇款是一项强大的资源。
15:37
We must do all we can to make remittances
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937506
3108
我们应该竭尽全力使
移民汇款和海外招工
15:40
and recruitment
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940614
985
15:41
safer and cheaper.
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2152
更安全,更便宜。
15:43
And it can be done.
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3111
这是能实现的。
15:46
As for myself, I have been
319
946862
2100
就我而言,
15:48
away from India for two decades now.
320
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4020
我已经离开印度二十多年了。
15:52
My wife is a Venezuelan.
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952982
2033
我妻子是委内瑞拉人,
15:55
My children are Americans.
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955015
3898
孩子们是美国人。
15:58
Increasingly, I feel like a global citizen.
323
958913
3947
我越来越觉得自己是个全球公民。
16:02
And yet, I am growing nostalgic
324
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2330
但是,我也越来越思念
16:05
about my country of birth.
325
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2952
我出生的地方。
16:08
I want to be in India and in the U.S. at the same time.
326
968142
5196
我既想在印度,又想在美国。
16:13
My parents are not there anymore.
327
973338
2223
我的父母已不在了。
16:15
My brothers and sisters have moved on.
328
975561
3502
我的兄弟姐妹们也搬走了。
16:19
There is no real urgency for me to send money home.
329
979063
2534
我已经不迫切需要往家寄钱了。
16:21
And yet, from time to time,
330
981597
2622
16:24
I send money home to friends,
331
984219
2851
我会寄钱回去给朋友,
16:27
to relatives, to the village,
332
987070
2841
给亲戚,给村里,
16:29
to be there, to stay engaged —
333
989911
2236
就像我还在那里。
16:32
that's part of my identity.
334
992147
2048
它是我的一部分。
16:34
And, I'm still striving to be a poet
335
994195
3240
同时,我还在努力成为一名诗人,
16:37
for the hardworking migrants
336
997435
2368
为那些辛勤劳作的移民们,
16:39
and their struggle to break free
337
999803
1537
以及他们为摆脱贫困所做的挣扎。
16:41
of the cycle of poverty.
338
1001340
1288
16:42
Thank you.
339
1002628
1774
谢谢。
16:44
(Applause)
340
1004402
6444
(掌声)
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